Written by Steven Dooley, Head of Market Insights, and Shier Lee Lim, Lead FX and Macro Strategist
Aussie, Chinese yuan hit on trade announcement
Global markets shuddered this morning after US president Donald Trump announced the long-awaited next stage of his trade program with a blanket tariff of 10% on all imports into the US.
In addition to the 10% minimum on all countries, Trump announced a series of other tariffs that reflect the restriction on US imports into other countries.
China will see an additional 34% tariff while Japan sees an additional 24% tariff. Australian imports will see the minimum 10% tariff imposed.
US sharemarket futures tumbled on the news. The S&P 500 fell 3.4% while the Nasdaq lost 4.3%.
In FX markets, trade sensitive currencies fell, with the AUD/USD down 0.9% as it reached one-month lows. The NZD/USD fell 0.7%.
In Asia, USD/CNH jumped 0.6% to near the year’s highs. USD/SGD hit one-month highs.
GBP/USD eyes rebound amid slower UK wage growth
UK wage growth is slowing, with median pay increases dropping to a three-year low at 3.5% in February, down from 4.0% previously.
This supports the Bank of England’s cautious approach to monetary policy, especially as private sector pay is expected to slow further by year-end.
GBP/USD is near four-month highs, while GBP/SGD is near eight-month highs. GBP/AUD however, is near five-year highs.
GBP/USD has followed a corrective decline from 1.2925, still above its 50-day EMA of 1.2770.
Key support levels lie at 1.2790–1.2860, where a rebound could pave the way for further upside, potentially forming a positive inverted head-and-shoulders pattern.
A sustained move above 1.3049 could open the door to 1.3264, while a break below 1.2790 risks further declines toward support at 1.2456.
EUR/USD poised for positive breakout as ECB eyes policy shift
The European Central Bank (ECB) may consider cutting rates in April if inflation data aligns with its 2% target, according to Governing Council Member Rehn.
Both AUD/EUR and NZD/EUR are near eight-month lows.
Looking at EUR/USD, the pair has rebounded from its recent corrective decline, still above its 50-day EMA at 1.0666
A close above 1.0955 would confirm this pattern, potentially opening the way for a significant move toward 1.1697.
However, if EUR/USD fails to hold above 1.0630, it risks further downside toward support near 1.0387.
USD jumps on tariff announcement
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 31 March – 4 April
All times AEDT
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
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