When The Fed Will Finally Act


Jobs data beats expectations … Trump demands lower rates again … when Louis Navellier sees rates coming … weakening consumer data … a win on the China front?

This morning, the U.S. payrolls report came in stronger than expected.

The U.S. economy added 177,000 jobs in April, above the expectation of 133,000 jobs. This kept the overall unemployment rate at 4.2%.

Meanwhile, average hourly earnings climbed 0.2%. This was just below the 0.3% forecast. Similarly, the annual rate of 3.8% was below the 3.9% expectation.

The quick takeaway is that the economy remains steady and reasonably strong.

I write “reasonably” because we should factor in yesterday’s softer weekly jobless claims, which weren’t counted in today’s jobs numbers.

That report showed that initial unemployment claims posted an unexpected increase. First-time filings for unemployment insurance clocked in at 241,000, up 18,000 from the prior period and above the estimate of 225,000.

Now, some analysts are suggesting part of the increase might be attributable to spring break for public schools. But even so, continuing unemployment claims suggest growing weakness.

Here’s CNBC:

Continuing claims, which run a week behind and provide a broader view of layoff trends, rose to 1.92 million, up 83,000 to the highest level since Nov. 13, 2021.

Overall, even with those continuing claims numbers, we’re interpreting the last two days of jobs data as a win for the economy.

But for Fed watchers, is that good or bad?

This morning’s data don’t paint the picture of an economy in dire need of interest rate cuts.

And as we’ve highlighted in prior Digests, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell likely remains scarred by his characterization of inflation as “transitory” back in 2021. That inaccurate call opened the door to the worst inflation in four decades as well as merciless attacks on his judgement. My guess is that Powell is gun-shy about cutting rates too soon today, cracking open the door to another bout of inflation.

President Trump is not shy…

From the President on Truth Social this morning:

Just like I said, and we’re only in a TRANSITION STAGE, just getting started!!!

Consumers have been waiting for years to see pricing come down. NO INFLATION, THE FED SHOULD LOWER ITS RATE!!!

One must wonder whether this relentless pressure from Trump is ultimately counterproductive. His public demands for lower interest rates could actually harden Powell’s resolve, as the Fed Chair may be unwilling to appear influenced by the President or politically weak.

Given that the current data doesn’t demand an urgent rate cut, Powell might opt to hold off another month – if only to assert the Fed’s independence.

Optics aside, if legendary investor Louis Navellier gets his way, Powell and the Federal Reserve will be riding to the rescue next week

Let’s begin with Louis’ Flash Alert in Growth Investor yesterday:

There’s a growing sense of optimism because on Fox Business yesterday, Scott Bessent said the Fed should be cutting rates.

And that’s because the two-year Treasury yield is at its lowest level since last September. And it’s so far below the federal funds rate, there’s really three rate cuts the Fed should make. 

And here’s this morning’s update after the jobs report:

Treasury yields rolled slightly in the wake of the payroll report. Yields are definitely at least 50 basis points below the fed funds rate.

If you look at the two-year Treasury note, they need to cut – they’re above market rates and they’re being restrictive.

For a visual on Louis’ point, below is the 2-year Treasury yield.

Unlike the 10-year Treasury yield, which has been volatile in 2025, the 2-year yield has been on a relatively smoother decline since January.

And as Louis highlighted, earlier this week, it notched its lowest level since last fall. But it has rolled slightly based on the jobs data.

Chart showing the 2-year Treasury yield falling to lows not seen since last fall

Source: TradingView

Over the years, Louis has repeatedly said that the Fed doesn’t like to fight market rates. So, with the 2-year yield at 3.78% while the fed funds target rate sits at a range of 4.25% – 4.50%, it suggests lower rates ahead.

Back to Louis for how low and when – and some choice words about the Fed:

I’m predicting four rate cuts this year – largely due to the global collapse in interest rates in Europe…

We’re going to get a Fed rate cut in May. If we don’t, [the Fed members are] clinically insane – they’re not looking at the data. And the cause for them to cut will get louder and louder cause market rates will have collapsed.

We do have some people on the Fed that aren’t qualified, but they tend to move in consensus and they should follow market rates – that’s kind of a no-brainer, for lack of a better word.

I think the main message I have is that as soon as the Fed starts cutting, everybody realizes the Fed is going to be cutting, everything’s going to be fine.

While we await “fine,” let’s keep an eye on data from global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showing signs of weakness

Yesterday, Challenger, Gray & Christmas released its April jobs report.

First the good news: Planned job cuts dropped 62% to 105,441 last month.

As to the bad news, layoffs surged 63% compared to last year. Notably, April’s number came in at the highest reading for the month in five years.

And while the temptation is to blame this on DOGE and assume the cuts are limited to federal workers, that’s inaccurate. Here’s Andrew Challenger:

Though the Government cuts are front and center, we saw job cuts across sectors last month.

Generally, companies are citing the economy and new technology.

Employers are slow to hire and limiting hiring plans as they wait and see what will happen with trade, supply chain, and consumer spending.

The bottom line from the Challenger, Gray & Christmas report is that here in 2025, employers have announced 602,493 layoffs, the highest year-to-date total since 2020. This number is 87% higher than the 322,043 cuts announced this time last year.

Meanwhile, disappointing sales from fast-food giant McDonald’s also points toward a weakening consumer

McDonald’s is often seen as a key indicator of consumer spending and sentiment, particularly among lower-income customers. And its latest financial results suggest that these consumers are feeling uneasy. Or as McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski put it:

Consumers today are grappling with uncertainty.

Yesterday, McDonald’s executives reported that U.S. same-store sales dropped 3.6% in Q1, marking the worst decline since Covid lockdowns kneecapped traffic. It was also the second consecutive quarter of same-store sales declines.

Back to Kempczinski:

In the U.S., overall [quick-service restaurant] industry traffic from the low-income consumer cohort was down nearly double digits versus the prior year quarter.

Unlike a few months ago, QSR traffic from middle-income consumers fell nearly as much, a clear indication that the economic pressure on traffic has broadened.

In recent days, we’ve heard similar commentary from executives at Chipotle, PepsiCo., and Starbucks.

From Chipotle CEO Scott Boatwright:

Saving money because of concerns around the economy was the overwhelming reason consumers were reducing the frequency of restaurant visits.

And here’s PepsiCo CFO Jamie Caulfield:

Relative to where we were three months ago, we probably aren’t feeling as good about the consumer now.

And Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol just referred to today’s economy as a “tough consumer environment.”

One final data point – though not related to fast food, it does reflect the financial health of lower-income Americans.

From Fortune:

Credit card data shows consumers are under increasing pressure, just as President Donald Trump’s tariffs are poised to significantly raise costs on everyday consumers.

Over 11% of Americans with accounts at the country’s largest banks only made the minimum payment on their credit card bills in the fourth quarter of 2024, a record since the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia began tracking the number 12 years ago.

Bottom line: While we enjoy this recent market rally, and applaud the payroll data, let’s not overlook these real-world signs of weakness.

There’s a hint of good news on the trade war front

This morning, a spokesperson for China’s ministry of commerce said that Beijing was considering the possibility of tariff negotiations with the United States.

It was consistent with the need to “save face” that’s important to China, which we’ve highlighted in recent days.

From that spokesperson:

US officials have repeatedly expressed their willingness to negotiate with China on tariffs…

China’s position is consistent. If we fight, we will fight to the end; if we talk, the door is open…

If the US wants to talk, it should show its sincerity and be prepared to correct its wrong practices and cancel unilateral tariffs.

Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reports that China is now considering ways to address the Trump administration’s demands that China curb its role in fentanyl pouring into the U.S.

From the WSJ:

Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s security czar, Wang Xiaohong, in recent days has been inquiring about what the Trump team wants China to do when it comes to the chemical ingredients used to make fentanyl, the people said.

Chinese companies produce large quantities of the chemicals known as “precursors,” which are sold over the internet, flowing from China to criminal groups in Mexico and elsewhere that produce fentanyl and traffic it into the U.S

The discussions remain fluid, the people cautioned, while adding that Beijing would like to see some softening of stance from President Trump on his trade offensive against China as well.

While not exactly a warm invitation to trade talks, it’s better than a cold refusal.

For now, we’ll take that as a win.

Before we sign off, let’s circle back to the Challenger, Gray & Christmas jobs report

Earlier, I highlighted a quote from Andrew Challenger in which he subtly echoed a theme I’ve been hammering on in recent weeks. Did you catch it?

Here’s the quote again:

Though the Government cuts are front and center, we saw job cuts across sectors last month.

Generally, companies are citing the economy and new technology.

Employers are slow to hire and limiting hiring plans as they wait and see what will happen with trade, supply chain, and consumer spending.

Rephrasing, one of the two reasons given by management for jobs cuts across a range of sectors is…

“New technology.”

My guess is that’s a reference to some version of robotics and the next iteration of AI advancements.

On that note, if you missed last night’s event with Luke Lango about investing in robotics and humanoids today, you can catch a free replay here.

Here’s Luke:

Steel mills, chip fabs, and assembly lines buzzing with “Made in the U.S.A.” labels: The president has promised all of this in a bid to get America’s factories booming.

There’s just one teensy problem…

You can’t rebuild American manufacturing without robots…

That’s why the next great fortune won’t come from chatbots or cloud software. It will come from physical AI—the robotic arms, vision sensors, and autonomous movers that transform concrete slabs into fully automated factories.

Last night, Luke dove into all these details and more, also highlighting his favorite robotics plays today. He also explains why he’s betting on an event next week that will pop the $7 trillion “cash bubble” parked in money-market funds today. Luke believes this will unleash a massive rotation back into stocks.

Here’s that link again to the free replay.

We’ll keep you updated on all these stories here in the Digest.

Have a good evening,

Jeff Remsburg



Source link

What We Learned From the 4 Big Tech Earnings This Week


Let’s be honest, folks. Out of the 500 companies in the S&P 500, only a few really can really swing the market with an earnings report or a product announcement.

For example, we’re in the heart of earnings season right now. And with 180 S&P 500 companies on deck to report earnings this week, there were only four of those “big deal” companies that both Wall Street and I had our eyes on: Apple Inc. (AAPL), Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) and Microsoft Corporation (MSFT).

Since these companies make up four of the “Magnificent Seven” stocks, we’re talking about a lot of influence on the market. The other three are Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) and Tesla, Inc. (TSLA). (We covered Alphabet’s and Tesla’s earnings in a Market 360 last week – and NVIDIA will announce earnings on May 28.)

These stocks have been the powerhouses that have typically driven the S&P 500 during earnings season. In fact, they currently account for about 30% of the S&P 500 and nearly half of the NASDAQ 100’s market cap, so naturally, these stocks can impact the broader market’s performance.

Now, the first few months of the year were not friendly to this group of stocks. Just look at the chart below…

With all seven companies down in 2025, these earnings reports will give critical insight into what has been plaguing them – whether there are any signs of hope for a turnaround. So, in today’s Market 360, let’s dig into the four big earnings announcements this week and review the market’s reaction. We’ll also take some time to look at what my stock grading system says about each company – and how you find the best stocks for this earnings season and beyond.

Meta Platforms, Inc.

After Wednesday’s market close, Meta Platforms announced a strong first quarter.

Earnings climbed nearly 37% to $6.43 per share, up from $4.71 a year ago. Revenue rose almost 16% to $42.31 billion. Analysts expected $5.21 earnings per share on $41.36 billion in revenue, so profits came in more than 23% higher, and sales beat forecasts by about 2%.

A big part of the boost came from ads. Meta’s ad impressions – how often people saw ads on Facebook, Instagram, and other platforms – rose 5% from a year ago. And the average price per ad went up 10%. More users are also logging on. Daily active people rose 6% to 3.43 billion.

CEO Mark Zuckerberg also touched on the trade tensions during the earnings call. He said the company is in a good spot to handle any bumps in the economy.

For the second quarter, Meta forecasts revenue between $42.5 billion and $45.5 billion. The company is doubling down on its AI investments, too. It now plans to spend between $64 billion and $72 billion in 2025 – more than its earlier estimate of $60 to $65 billion. Most of that money will go toward building new data centers to power its growing suite of AI tools.

Microsoft Corporation

On Wednesday, Microsoft said its revenue hit $70.1 billion – up 13% from last year and ahead of the $68.44 billion analysts expected. Earnings came in at $3.46 per share, beating the $3.22 that Wall Street was looking for. That’s an 18% jump from a year ago.

The cloud business was the star of the show. Its Intelligent Cloud revenue totaled $26.8 billion. Within that, server products and cloud services revenue increased 22%. and Azure Cloud – Microsoft’s cloud platform – did even better, climbing 33%.

While other companies are sounding the alarm about tariffs, Microsoft didn’t dwell on it. But the big question is… are those big bets on AI paying off?

Well, AI services added 7 points to Azure’s 33% growth last quarter – the biggest boost yet. Microsoft is also rolling out AI tools like Copilot across its apps, and demand from big customers is picking up fast.

Microsoft is going all-in on artificial intelligence. Earlier this year, CEO Satya Nadella said the company plans to invest $80 billion in data centers during fiscal 2025. And this past quarter, capital spending came in at $16.75 billion, up nearly 53%.

The company also issued guidance for revenue between $73.2 billion and $74.3 billion for the next quarter, above the consensus estimate of $72.3 billion.

Amazon.com, Inc.

On Thursday after the bell, Amazon reported results that fell short of expectations.

Earnings increased 62% year-over-year to $1.59 per share. Analysts were expecting $1.36 per share. Revenue rose 9% to $155.67 billion, topping estimates for $155.12 billion.

But after digging a little deeper, Amazon’s cloud computing unit, Amazon Web Services (AWS), disappointed Wall Street. This closely watched (and highly profitable) segment brought in $29.27 billion in revenue, a growth of 17%, but just shy of expectations of $29.42 billion.

I should note that Amazon also said it’s launching a new agentic AI group. This group will build software for AI-powered tools called “agents.”

You’re going to be hearing a lot more about AI agents soon, folks. These are programs that can act on their own to complete tasks instead of just answering questions like a chatbot. For example, an AI agent could read your emails, summarize them, schedule a meeting and then send invites – all without being told what to do for each step.

Now, Amazon projected revenue between $159 billion and $164 billion and operating income between $13 billion and $17.5 billion. Both of those were slightly below analyst estimates. The company is also navigating tariff-related challenges, with CEO Andy Jassy emphasizing efforts to maintain low prices and adapt to potential impacts.

Apple, Inc.

Apple earned $1.65 per share in its second quarter of fiscal year 2025. That’s up 8% from a year ago and slightly ahead of analyst estimates for $1.63. Revenue came in at $95.36 billion, up 5%, and just above analyst’s expectations for $94.75 billion.

Digging a little deeper, iPhone sales rose about 2% year-over-year to $46.8 billion, topping forecasts. Mac and iPad sales also both beat estimates, bringing in $7.9 billion and $6.4 billion, respectively.

Apple’s increasingly important Services business continues to soar, bringing in $26.6 billion, up 12% and just shy of expectations for $26.7 billion in revenue.

As for the elephant in the room: tariffs. When asked about potential impacts, CEO Tim Cook kept things vague. Apple didn’t offer specific revenue or earnings guidance for the June quarter, either. But Cook did warn the company expects a $900 million hit from tariffs – a signal that trade tensions are starting to show up in the numbers. To help offset that, Apple is moving more iPhone production to India and expects most U.S.-sold units will be made there by 2026.

Closing Thoughts

Now, following these earnings, Meta and Microsoft opened 7.8% and 9.1% higher, respectively, on Thursday. Meanwhile, on Friday, following their lackluster numbers, Amazon was roughly flat, while Apple was down by about 3.75%.

Overall, it was a mixed bag for these Big Tech companies. But I think there are two key takeaways here. First, the impact of tariffs on these companies is compound and complex. These reports cover the period before Trump effectively challenged China to a trade war, so we should continue monitoring things. Second, the AI Boom is still on, folks. In fact, it continues to gain steam.

So, are any of these four stocks good buys right now? Let’s take a look at what my stock grading system has to say…

Apple and Meta receive a B-rating, which makes them a Buy. However, Amazon and Microsoft earn a C-rating, which makes them a Hold. I should also note that both have weak ratings for their Quantitative Grades, which tells us that institutional buying pressure is dwindling in both.

In other words, my system is telling us that Apple and Meta are worth considering, while investors should be cautious about Amazon and Microsoft.

What My System Is Flagging Now

Now, each of these companies has had a hand in some of the incredible innovations we’ve seen over the past few years. And each one of them has created a fortune for investors.

Thanks to my system, I’ve had a front-row seat. In fact, it identified each one of these companies before they became mega-cap household names.

And now, my proprietary system is lighting up in a whole new way. It’s pointing to a powerful economic shift unlike anything I’ve seen in my four decades on Wall Street.

You see, an unprecedented economic force is reshaping America’s financial landscape at breathtaking speed.

On the good side, it’s creating extraordinary wealth opportunities. On the bad side, it’s causing a systemic elimination of careers once considered “secure.”

And this transformation isn’t just affecting a single industry or sector – it’s fundamentally altering the very foundation of our economy.

That’s why I’ve prepared this brand new video that explains exactly what’s happening, why it matters to you and, most importantly, what specific actions you need to take now to ensure you’re positioned on the right side of this historic wealth divide.

I strongly encourage you to take some time out of your day and watch this immediately.

Click here to watch my special briefing now.

Sincerely,

An image of a cursive signature in black text.An image of a cursive signature in black text.

Louis Navellier

Editor, Market 360

The Editor hereby discloses that as of the date of this email, the Editor, directly or indirectly, owns the following securities that are the subject of the commentary, analysis, opinions, advice, or recommendations in, or which are otherwise mentioned in, the essay set forth below:

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)



Source link

Brace Yourself for More Stock Market Turmoil Ahead


Editor’s note: “Brace Yourself for More Stock Market Turmoil Ahead” was previously published with the title “Painful Stock Market Chaos: You Ain’t Seen Nothin’ Yet” in April 2025. It has since been updated to include the most relevant information available.

If you’ve felt confused, frustrated, or downright sick to your stomach watching the stock market this year, you’re not alone. This has been one of the ugliest, most volatile, and whiplash-inducing starts to a year that Wall Street has ever seen…

Indeed, since January, we’ve endured:

  • A 10% correction in the S&P 500 within 20 trading days (between February and March)
  • An even more violent 10% drop in just two days in early April – something that’s only happened five other times in the past 100 years, all during moments of crisis like the Great Depression, Black Monday, and 2008’s Great Recession
  • One of the biggest single-day rallies ever when markets exploded higher on a hint of tariff relief
    • On April 10, the Dow Jones Industrial Average popped 7.9%, its biggest single-day gain since March 2020. The S&P 500 surged 9.5%, its biggest single-day gain since 2008. And the Nasdaq soared 12.2%, notching its second-best day ever.
  • A post-winning-streak slump to begin the first-quarter earnings season, with all three major indices closing in the red.
  • And most recently, the market soared in one of the most impressive upward thrusts in history. After closing higher for the fourth straight day, the Nasdaq was up 6.7%, the S&P popped 4.6%, and the Dow rose 2.5%, triggering some ultra-rare and ultra-bullish technical buy signals…

In fact, while the market recovered over the past few trading days, just last week, it was tracking for its third-worst year on record after dropping more than 12% in the first 74 trading days. 

The only years that had worse starts? 1932 and ‘39 – when the U.S. was crawling through the Great Depression. 

Things got that bad this year.

And if you’re wondering what caused this mess in the first place, well, you probably already know the answer…

Liberation Day.”

How ‘Liberation Day’ Unleashed Stock Market Mayhem

It may have a positive implication, but “Liberation Day” offered no reason to celebrate.

That was the day that U.S. President Trump detonated an economic bomb of sorts, igniting one of the most aggressive, sweeping trade wars in our history. 

He enforced tariffs on nearly every U.S. trading partner that were so big, many thought they would completely freeze global trade. 

Consumer confidence cratered. Treasury yields surged. Widespread panic ran rampant on Wall Street. 

Since then, chaos has been the norm:

  • China fired back, imposing tariffs on 128 products it imports from America, including a 25% tariff to aluminum, airplanes, cars, pork, and soybeans, as well as a 15% tariff to fruit, nuts, and steel piping
  • Trump responded by hiking tariffs on China even more to 125%
  • Then the White House paused tariffs levied against our trading partners – excluding China – while still hiking Chinese tariffs even more
  • The U.S. then exempted electronics from those ultra-high China tariffs, with talk of possible auto part exemptions as well
  • All the while, the White House claims that the U.S. is having great talks with other trading partners but without any tangible trade deals to show for it
  • And while trade tensions do seem to be simmering down, the White House is apparently opening probes to potentially launch a new set of tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals

It feels more like we’re watching a political soap opera instead of a functioning market.

Everyone – from billion-dollar hedge fund managers to Main Street investors – is flying blind.

But here’s the thing…

As painful as it’s been… and as confusing and volatile as it still is…

This may be nothing compared to what’s coming.



Source link

Two Ways to Prepare for the Great Retail Squeeze – Before May 7 Hits 


Expect a “W-shaped” recovery as markets begin to face “unsustainable” Chinese tariffs…

Tom Yeung here with today’s Smart Money

In February 2020, photos began circulating of deserted locations in China.  

Empty subway stations… 

Desolate malls… 

There was not a soul to be seen in downtown Beijing, Hong Kong, or Shanghai, as the picture below shows. 

Source

A month later, American pandemic lockdowns began. 

Today, similar images of desolation are coming toward our shores. But instead of empty subway stations and malls, it’s store shelves that will be barren…

Source

That’s because America is quietly running out of Chinese goods. 

On Wednesday, the National Bureau of Statistics revealed that Chinese export orders for April had plunged to their lowest level since the Covid-19 pandemic.  

Container ship arrivals to the Port of Los Angeles are scheduled to decrease 36% later this month. And retailers will eventually burn through the pre-tariff stockpiles they’ve hoarded. 

So, in today’s Smart Money, let’s take a look at what the continued trade war with China means for us as consumers… and, importantly, as investors.  

I’ll also share the date that could spark massive market panic. It’s a lot sooner than you might think. 

The Trade War’s Impact 

Over the next several months, retailers will run out of cheaply imported inventory. Products we take for granted will disappear, and many unexpected items will suddenly become far harder to find.  

The first to vanish will be toys and seasonal kids’ goods, given their relatively quick turnover and reliance on Chinese manufacturers. We could see this impact as soon as next month. 

The next will be fast fashion and low-cost home goods. Then, apparel… footwear… electronic components… household appliances… and so on. Each new month will bring another knife twist to American supply chains, simply because no other country (not even the U.S.) can replace the manufacturing capacity of China on such short notice. 

Of course, I’m only talking hypothetically.  

That’s because President Donald Trump still seems to care about public opinion and stock prices. He backed off full “Liberation Day” tariffs after a major Wall Street selloff, and will almost certainly lighten up on Chinese tariffs once retail panic begins. After all, the president did not win the race to the White House by promising empty store shelves. 

However, that still means a retail panic must first happen.  

Over the past decade, we’ve gotten a good look at how our president operates. He loves to make grand deals. He loves to negotiate. And he loves to look strong to his constituents. 

And that’s worrying because Trump is clashing swords with a leader who also wants to appear strong to his own people. 

That means it’s extremely unlikely we’ll see a sudden “grand deal” with China to bring all tariffs to the 25% to 30% range – the sweet spot where taxes are high enough to incentivize re-shoring, and low enough to keep trade moving. Neither side wants to look weak. 

Instead, the next several months will likely see a second dip before both sides come to the table. Even then, we may only see a hodgepodge of tariff cuts, leaving importers without the confidence to make big orders or rebuild supply chains outside China. That will eventually lead to low inventories, less consumption, and a “W-shaped” recovery. 

So, how should investors prepare for an upcoming “everything shortage”? 

Two Steps to Arm for a Trade War 

First, you must check your portfolio for China-dependent companies and reduce exposure where you can. For instance, with… 

  • Retailers. Firms like Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) and Target Corp. (TGT) import anywhere from 30% to 70% of their total inventory from China. Raising prices to offset tariffs could prove ruinous for their reputations, so they have no choice but to eat the costs and accept lower (or negative) profits. 
  • Apparel. Many clothing sellers have surprisingly concentrated supply chains. UGG owner Decker Outdoors Corp. (DECK), for example, sources its entire sheepskin inventory from two Chinese tanneries. 

The next step will be to protect yourself from the second dip of a “W-shaped” recovery. President Trump will likely delay reducing tariffs until something goes wrong, so we’ll probably see a pullback as retail panic sets in.  

That means cutting back on the riskiest of risky bets like short-dated call options… zero-profit startups… even major cryptocurrencies. 

But after that, you need to prepare for a recovery through buying the high-quality winners we’ve long talked about in this newsletter.  

And the good news is the second leg of the “W-shaped” recovery could happen as soon as next Wednesday, May 7. According to my InvestorPlace colleague Luke Lango, a big event that day could trigger a flood of cash – roughly $7 trillion – to rush back into U.S. stocks. This catalyst could change the entire market and create a summer “panic” like we’ve not seen since 1997. 

This is why he is holding a special 2025 Summer Panic Summit tonight at 7 p.m. Eastern. At this event, Luke will explain why he believes this catalyst on May 7 will be a game-changer. Plus, he’ll share a new set of stocks that he believes are primed to lead the next wave of growth.  

The event starts in just a few hours, so click here now to reserve your spot for the 2025 Summer Panic Summit before it begins. You won’t want to miss what Luke has to say.  

Until next week,  

Tom Yeung  

Markets Analyst, InvestorPlace 



Source link

Robotics Will Be a $5 Trillion Market – Get Invested


Last call for tonight’s robotics event with Luke Lango … agentic AI is already arriving … did Beijing just crack the door open to talks? … perspective on volatility

In recent Digests, I’ve been highlighting tonight’s humanoids/robotics investment event with our technology expert, Luke Lango.

If you’re still unsure about the scope of this opportunity, here’s the title of one of CNBC’s stories on Tuesday:

“Morgan Stanley says humanoid robots will be a $5 trillion market by 2050. How to play it”

The numbers in the article are eye-opening. From CNBC:

Wall Street continues to double down on its forecasts of a multi-trillion dollar global market for humanoid robots, suggesting it will grow to be significantly larger than the global auto industry by the next couple of decades.

New estimates from Morgan Stanley analysts forecast $4.7 trillion in global humanoid revenue by 2050, which the firm said is double the total revenue of the 20 largest automakers in 2024…

Analysts estimate that global humanoid adoption will accelerate and reach roughly 1 billion units by 2050, the investment bank said.

Elon Musk, Tesla’s CEO, shares this same perspective. Last year, he predicted that Tesla’s humanoid Optimus will “overwhelmingly be the value of [Tesla].”

Here’s more of what he said about humanoids on Tesla’s Q2 2024 earnings call:

  • Long-term, Optimus has the potential to generate $10 trillion in revenue
  • It won’t be many years before Tesla is making 100 million robots a year
  • Musk sees a path for Tesla to be the most valuable company in the world, possibly bigger than the next five companies combined, overwhelmingly due to autonomous vehicles and autonomous humanoid robots.

To add context to Morgan Stanley’s $4.7 trillion market size prediction, in 2024, the market cap of the entire global pharmaceuticals industry was roughly $1.7 trillion.

Humanoids are going to dwarf that.

And how about global defense/military spending? According to CNN, that clocks in at $2.7 trillion.

So, these next-gen robots will nearly double that.

***What we’re seeing right now with robotics/humanoids has shades of the earliest days of the internet boom

And though this technology will take years to reach full bloom, the early investment gains have already begun. Luke believes they’re about to accelerate:

If history is any guide, the next 24 months could be even bigger than the last 24 — just as 1998 and 1999 outshone 1995 and 1996 during the Dot-Com Boom.

In fact, my team and I have been tracking the price action of stocks in the AI Boom that started in 2023, relative to the price action of stocks in the Dot-Com Boom, from 1995 to the peak in 1999.

The price trajectories match almost perfectly.

We haven’t seen a setup like this in nearly 30 years, when internet leaders saw gains of 800%, 2,800%, and even 3,000%…

Luke isn’t pulling those numbers from thin air. He’s referring to the gains seen by Cisco, Viavi Solutions, and Qualcomm between 1997 and 1999 (though there are abundant other examples he could have used).

Circling back to tonight, get ready to cover lots of ground: the historical parallels to the 90s… why the AI boom is far from over… why humanoids/robotics are critical for investor portfolios in the years ahead… why May 7th could mark a mad dash back into the market that Luke wants to front-run… and details about a group of seven small-cap stocks that are poised to benefit from the humanoid boom.

It’s not too late to join. By clicking here, you’ll be instantly registered to attend, and we’ll see you at 7 PM Eastern.

***Ready for AI to do your shopping?

On Tuesday, Bloomberg reported that Mastercard is working with Microsoft so that AI agents can shop for consumers online, even make payments for them.

Here’s Bloomberg:

Under the new program, a shopper could prompt an AI agent — Microsoft’s Copilot, for example — to search for a pair of yellow running shoes in a particular size.

The agent would then search and offer the customer options, and then be able to make the purchase while also recommending the best way to pay.

The AI agent won’t have complete autonomy to buy without the consumer’s input. But it’ll basically tee everything up and await that final green light.

But agentic AI isn’t only on the cusp of transforming shopping.

Here’s The Wall Street Journal from February, discussing AI agents and healthcare:

Grace, Max and Tom…are artificial-intelligence agents: bots that execute tasks end to end.

Already, AI agents can automate the ordering of groceries and filing of expense reports, and now venture-backed companies are designing them for healthcare tasks such as enrolling participants in clinical trials, ensuring proper care after hospitalization and helping doctors quickly learn medical histories when seeing patients for the first time.

And how about AI agent “tutors” that help your child with those pesky math problems?

Here’s PurelyStartup.com:

47% of students fail to grasp algebraic concepts in their first attempt. That statistic isn’t just a number—it represents millions of frustrated students, overwhelmed teachers, and countless lost learning opportunities. 

Some schools are already embracing AI teaching assistants to tackle this challenge…in what’s becoming education’s most transformative shift.

These AI agents for education don’t just explain concepts differently—they adapt to each student’s learning style, provide instant feedback, and offer unlimited patience. 

There are plenty more examples of AI agents impacting different corners of our economy, but you get the idea.

The bottom line is that this technology is racing toward us right now. And these cutting-edge bots are the frontrunners of the full-blown humanoids that aren’t too far behind.

Consider the scope of how this will change your life – and the world around you.

From an investment perspective, we’re effectively at Day 1.

Circling back to Luke and how he recommends investors position themselves, here’s your last reminder to join him tonight (here’s that one-click instant sign-up link again).

***The trade war is already bruising China – but is Beijing softening?

Switching gears, yesterday, we learned that China’s manufacturing activity has nosedived in the wake of the trade war.

China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 49 (a reading below 50 signals a contraction). And new export orders fell to their lowest since December 2022.

Will it result in trade war concessions?

Here’s The Wall Street Journal:

[The weak data] adds to pressure on Chinese leader Xi Jinping to reach a deal on trade with Trump—though for now the clear message from Beijing is one of resolute defiance in the teeth of what it describes as U.S. bullying.

Earlier this week, we dove into Beijing’s “defiance,” highlighting how Chinese culture places a major emphasis on “saving face.” We saw an example a few days ago when the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs posted a video to social media saying, “China won’t kneel down.”

But are we seeing green shoots?

Yesterday, Chinese state media said there would be “no harm” in having trade talks with the White House. This hints at a softening of Beijing’s position.

In a social media post, Yuyuan Tantian, which is an account affiliated with state media, said:

If the US wishes to engage with China, there’s no harm in it for China at this stage…

If it is talks, the door is wide open. If it is a fight, we’ll see it through to the end.

Seems like an effective tightrope walk of “saving face” while also signaling a willingness to find a deal.

We’re encouraged, but let’s be cautious about reading too much into it. On that note, here’s the WSJ again:

Xi has signaled that Beijing is prepared for a long battle over trade…

[And though various exemptions have been made on both sides] substantive talks on trade between Washington and Beijing don’t appear to be happening.

***Important perspective on recent volatility

As I write Thursday, the market is soaring (mostly the Nasdaq) due to strong earnings from Microsoft and Meta.

But given the volatility we’ve seen over the last two months, tomorrow could bring a “down” day that erases all these gains and more.

So, let’s end today by contextualizing this volatility.

First, a disclaimer: We each have a unique investment path. We come to today’s market with different ages, investment goals, incomes, net worths, investment timeframes, and so on. So, please do only what’s best for you and your specific investment situation.

But if you have a handful of years left for your stock portfolio to develop, Thomas Yeung offers important perspective.

For newer Digest readers, Thomas is Eric Fry’s lead analyst. In his Investment Report Weekly Update from Tuesday, Thomas began by explaining why we aren’t out of the woods with the trade war, and the potential for empty shelves in the coming months.

But it’s how Thomas ended his update that’s important for long-term investors to remember (equally so for investors who are buying into humanoids/robotics today).

I’ll let him take us out today:

Four years from now, no one will be thinking about tariffs.

Instead, we’ll be talking about artificial intelligence, robotics, and perhaps even how the chaotic rollout of import taxes were good for forcing firms to re-onshore production. 

So, don’t let [a stuttering, uneven] recovery shake you from the market.

Have a good evening,

Jeff Remsburg



Source link

1997 Déjà Vu: Why May 7 Could Trigger a $7 Trillion Stampede


Editor’s Note: In the late 1990’s, one of the most explosive events happened on Wall Street – the dot-com boom. The internet began to change how we live our daily lives, and now we can’t go a day without using it. But the biggest fortunes weren’t made in the dot-com boom, they were made AFTER it happened…

You see, it took time for the internet to make way into our homes and jobs, and as it did, the companies that benefited from this saw huge gains, as much as 3,000%! And now my colleague, Luke Lango, sees a similar event taking shape for the AI Boom…

On May 7, Luke believes that the $7 trillion that has been sitting on the sidelines will trigger a buying frenzy, benefitting a small group of stocks that he calls the “MAGA 7” (Make AI Great in America). He tells you everything you need to know tonight at 7 p.m Eastern in The 2025 Summer Panic Summit.

Click here to instantly RSVP to the event now!

I’ll turn it over to Luke, where he’ll show you how the AI Boom is following the dot-com boom’s same path…

***************************

Back in late 1994, a little browser called Netscape quietly opened the internet’s doors.

Few noticed then, yet that single event triggered one of the most explosive investment booms of the past century. Between 1994 and 1999, the Dot-Com Boom minted millionaires – and you didn’t need to be early.

In fact, the biggest fortunes weren’t made in the beginning of the boom… but in its second half.

Cisco Corp. (CSCO) became a poster child for the dot-com era. Its stock rallied about 200% during the “first half” of the boom, from early 1995 to mid-1997.

Not bad.

But then, in the “second half,” from summer 1997 to late 1999, Cisco stock went parabolic—soaring 800%.

In simple terms: Cisco tripled in the first two years of the Dot-Com Boom… but delivered a nearly 9X return in the last two:

It wasn’t just Cisco, either.

Viavi Solutions Inc. (VIAV) – like Cisco, a networking solutions provider for the internet buildout – surged about 500% in the first half of the boom… then exploded nearly 3,000% in the second half:

Lather, rinse, repeat for other massive internet stock winners of the 1990s. Semtech Corp. (SMTC), Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT), Oracle Corp. (ORCL), Paychex Inc. (PAYX), Sanmina Corp. (SANM) — all saw their biggest gains after the world started to panic (more on that in a minute), not before.

These stocks were huge winners in the Dot-Com Boom. But why did their biggest moves come late, not early?

Netscape…

Not because of Netscape – but because of what came after.

You see… it took a few years for web browsers such as Netscape to become widespread, but once they did, the stage was set for the acceleration phase of the internet — the period when internet applications we still use today, like Amazon, Google, and eBay – were built atop those browsers.

Those applications went on to change the world.

Right now, the same thing is happening again.

Except this time, it isn’t about the internet.

It’s about AI.

So, in today’s issue… I’m going to show you three more charts that show you just how precisely the AI Boom is following the Dot-Com Boom’s trajectory.

Plus, we’ll discuss why the AI Boom has been taking a beating the last few months…

The catalyst it will take to get the AI Boom back on track…

And how you can get on board before that catalyst hits.

Let’s get going…

3 Charts You Must See Now

The AI Boom began in 2022 when ChatGPT launched—the Netscape moment for this generation. Since then, AI has dominated headlines, and AI stocks have soared.

But make no mistake: We are not at the end of the AI Boom… we are only at the midpoint.

If history is any guide, the next 24 months could be even bigger than the last 24 — just as 1998 and 1999 outshone 1995 and 1996 during the Dot-Com Boom.

In fact, my team and I have been tracking the price action of stocks in the AI Boom that started in 2023, relative to the price action of stocks in the Dot-Com Boom, from 1995 to the peak in 1999.

The price trajectories match almost perfectly.

Take a look…

Across the S&P 500…

The Nasdaq Composite…

And the Russell 2000.

We haven’t seen a setup like this in nearly 30 years…

Like I showed you up top, it was possible to see gains of 800%, 2,800%, and even 3,000%…

It doesn’t matter what you look at — the correlation is very strong — almost identical.

These charts show how we’re poised to keep going up, and quickly.

This time, though, something is different.

Over the past few months, the global trade war has thrown the stock market into chaos.

We’ve seen historic up days followed by devastating crashes.

We’ve logged some of the best one-, two-, and three-day stretches ever in the last three months. We’ve also seen some of the worst one-, two-, and three-day stretches.

The S&P 500 has been whipped around like a rag doll. Tech stocks have been hit the hardest. The VIX—Wall Street’s “fear index” — recently flashed levels last seen at the depths of the COVID crash and the global financial crisis.

It has been one of the most volatile three-month stretches in stock-market history.

It’s caused thousands and thousands of investors to give up on the AI Boom.

But is it that different?

The May 7 “Trigger”

Think back again to the Dot-Com Boom: The market has been here before.

In 1998, global currencies were in turmoil, Russia defaulted, and Long-Term Capital Management collapsed. Pundits whispered the Dot-Com Boom was finished.

It wasn’t.

Right in the middle of that chaos, the biggest tech rally in history take off.

I believe history is about to repeat itself.

That’s because, on May 7, I believe President Donald Trump and a message coming out of Washington will help trigger a $7 trillion panic in the markets as investors on the sidelines – and all the cash they’re holding – rush to jump back in as opportunities open up.

This crucial economic event ties together everything happening now — the stock market chaos, the trade war headlines, the AI Boom, and every single investor’s portfolio.

This feels the same as 1997 — the panic, the fear, the headlines. Beneath it all, however, a massive opportunity is quietly forming.

When the powers that be in Washington take the stage on May 7, they could light the spark.

Tonight at 7 p.m. ET, I’m hosting a free urgent briefing (automatically reserve your spot by clicking here) to prepare you for what I’ve been calling The 2025 Summer Panic.

I’ll walk you through the historical parallels, show you why the AI Boom is far from over, and reveal what could happen on May 7 — and how to position yourself.

For reasons I’ll explain tonight, a crucial economic event that President Trump is pushing hard for is set to ignite this rally in a small specific group of stocks as soon as May 7.

All you need to do is click this link to immediately RSVP.

During that free broadcast, I’ll make sure you have all the details on the seven small companies I’ve identified as the biggest potential winners of The 2025 Summer Panic

Again: Tonight, 7 p.m. ET. Clear your calendar. What happens next could go down in history.

Click here to sign up now.

Sincerely,

Luke Lango



Source link

$7 Trillion Panic? Why AI Stocks Could Lead the Next Market Surge


What began as a promising rally quickly unraveled into chaos. 

The stock market started this year on a high, locking in 3% gains in January. AI momentum was still red-hot. Chatter about President Trump’s potential tax cuts and deregulation were keeping hope alive. And for a while, it looked like we were heading into another bull market breakout.

Then came the trade war, and optimism gave way to panic.

In February, the White House launched its first tariff threats. Stocks dropped 10% in 20 days – one of the fastest corrections in modern market history. 

Then April’s “Liberation Day” tariffs took center stage. Markets crashed again, falling nearly 20%. At one point in mid-April, the S&P 500 was on track for its third-worst start to a year in the past century.

It felt like the market was in meltdown mode. Some investors called it a slow-motion 1987 crash. Others feared it was 2008 all over again.

But just as quickly as things went south, they bounced back.

From Crash to Comeback: How the 2025 Trade War Sparked Stock Market Volatility

In a sudden shift, Trump walked back the harshest tariffs and paused reciprocal duties for 90 days. He exempted electronics from Chinese tariffs, then auto parts. The administration started talking about trade deals with Japan, India, the EU, even China. The rhetoric softened. 

And markets ripped higher.

In the past three weeks alone, the S&P has surged nearly 12%. It’s been one of the fastest recovery rallies on record.

So… what happens next?

That’s the question every investor is asking. And most are looking for the answer in the wrong place, trying to game out the next step in the trade war.

Is a deal with Japan coming? Will China retaliate again? Will Trump rescind exemptions and hit the gas?

Important questions, no doubt – but ultimately, the wrong ones.

Because we believe the thing that’s going to move markets next isn’t the trade war at all.

Instead, what will send shockwaves through the market – as soon as next week – is something much, much bigger. And it’s tied to the most powerful force in the market today: artificial intelligence.

AI Demand Is Surging Despite Economic Chaos

Let’s zoom out for a moment.

Despite the threat of a global trade war, U.S. recession, or stock market meltdown, the AI Boom has been humming right along.

Just look at the data.

Last night, Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) – two of the world’s most important AI companies – reported earnings. And those results showed that the AI Boom is accelerating.

Microsoft’s Azure cloud business (home to most of its AI services) grew 35% year-over-year last quarter. That’s up from 31% the quarter before – and the first acceleration in over a year. 

Management said AI demand is so strong, it’s outstripping supply. The firm is investing more – a lot more – to meet demand for things like Copilot, GitHub Copilot, Microsoft Fabric, etc. It plans to spend approximately $80 billion on data centers in fiscal year 2025 to support those generative AI technologies.

Meta echoed the same sentiment. The number of advertisers using its AI creative tools rose 30%. Time spent on Facebook and Instagram is rising thanks to AI-powered feed improvements. And like Microsoft, Meta is spending even more on AI infrastructure to keep up with demand. In this latest earnings report, the company announced plans to spend between $64 billion and $72 billion on capital expenditures in 2025, a significant increase from previous estimates.

Let me be clear: These are trillion-dollar companies. They don’t hype things unless they have to. Both are saying that AI demand is soaring despite the trade war.

And they aren’t the only ones.



Source link

Data Show a Cooling Economy


GDP turns negative … low hiring numbers … but is this a buy-the-dip moment? … a rare indicator just went bullish … the MAGA 7 stocks … “blank sailings” soar

This morning brought three big pieces of macro data:

  • The GDP report
  • The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index (PCE)
  • The ADP jobs report

Diving in, Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted 0.3%, down from 2.4% growth in Q4 of 2024. This was the first negative GDP since early 2022.

In its release, the Commerce Department wrote that the decline, “primarily reflected an increase in imports” and a “decrease in government spending.”

Though President Trump’s tariffs kicked in after Q1, the increase in imports reflects companies trying to front-run Liberation-Day tariffs.  

Legendary investor Louis Navellier zeroed in on this detail in this morning’s Growth Investor Flash Alert:

There was a rush to import goods ahead of the tariff deadlines, as imports surged 41.3%, lowering growth by 4.8%.

In other words, if we back out the impact of the imports, growth was positive. So, the bottom line is I actually liked this report.

Next up, PCE inflation gave investors a mixed bag.

On one hand, the headline month-to-month reading was flat – good news.

Similarly, for “core” inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, and is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the number was also flat. Plus, this was below forecasts for a 0.1% increase. Also, good news.

However, year-over-year headline PCE inflation came in at 2.3%, higher than the 2.1% forecast. Bad news.

Similarly, “core” PCE inflation rose 2.6% on the year, hotter than the forecast for a 2.5% increase.

Frankly, bulls and bears will cherry-pick data in the report to build their respective cases. The safer approach is to wait another month (or two) for clearer numbers reflecting how tariffs are impacting prices.

Finally, the ADP jobs report found that the economy added only 62,000 private-sector jobs in April. That’s down from 147,000 in March, and the smallest gain since last July. It’s also barely half of the Dow Jones forecast for 120,000.

Altogether, the data reflect a nervous economy that’s unsure how to respond to today’s climate.

As to the stock market’s response, all three major indexes are down as I write, but they’re well off their lows of the morning.

Pulling back, what are we to make of this morning’s economic data considering the market’s recent rally?

Are today’s jitters a “buy the dip” moment within a wider continuation of that rally? Or is this a foretaste of a looming bear?

“A great investment opportunity occurs when a marvelous business encounters a one-time, huge, but solvable problem”

So says market legend Warren Buffett.

It makes sense. Remove that “solvable problem” and the stock price roars back to where it previously traded – and potentially higher.

Wouldn’t the logic equally apply to entire investment markets?

It did with the S&P and its 2020 Covid flash crash…

A great investment opportunity occurred when a marvelous stock market encountered a one-time, huge, but solvable pandemic.

The result was a buying opportunity/rally for the ages…

Chart showing the crash/rally around Covid. The crash proved to be an amazing buying opportunity

Source: TradingView

Are we in the middle of another such buying opportunity?

Coming into January, the market was overvalued, but it wasn’t trading at a “this bubble must burst immediately!” level. And the economy was fundamentally strong.

All the investment/economic damage suffered over the last two months has been self-inflicted…which means it can be self-corrected.

According to our hypergrowth expert Luke Lango, that self-correction is coming. And though the market has already begun pricing it in, the biggest gains remain ahead.

An “ultra-rare” indicator just went full bull

When analyzing the market, Luke uses an arsenal of indicators, charts, moving averages, fundamental ratios – you name it – to help him forecast what’s coming.

One especially powerful indicator he tracks is the Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT) indicator. This indicator triggers when the percentage of advancing stocks on the NYSE (measured over a 10-day moving average) rises from below 40% to above 61.5% within 10 trading days.

This rare surge in market breadth suggests that many stocks are suddenly moving higher, often marking the end of a bearish phase and the beginning of a major rally.

As you’re likely guessing, the Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator just triggered – last Thursday, to be exact.

Here’s Luke with more details:

The ZBT has only flashed 18 times since World War II. In every single instance, stocks were higher a year later — with average gains of 25%.

That’s not noise. That’s a signal.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 just last week notched three straight days of gains over 1.5%. That’s another rare signal. Since 1950, every time that’s happened, stocks have been higher a year later — every single time — with average gains of 10%.

You don’t see this kind of price action in the middle of a collapse. You see it when a collapse is ending.

We think stocks have bottomed — and we’re very bullish heading into the summer.

What Luke is buying today to ride this summer bull market

In yesterday’s Digest, we introduced Luke’s “MAGA 7” stocks. It’s a twist on President Trump’s “Make America Great Again” slogan, referring to…

Make AGreat in America

In this case, the “AI” refers to next-generation AI robotics that will power Trump’s efforts to revitalize the American manufacturing base.

In yesterday’s Digest, we detailed why the onshoring effort won’t result in millions of new jobs for human workers. In short, the numbers just don’t work.

Instead, Corporate America will turn to AI. The outcome will be the accelerated adoption of robotics as businesses look for ways to cut input costs and blunt the impact of rising trade-related expenses.

This will be an enormous tailwind for a small group of stocks that find themselves in the middle of this economic shift – and that’s where Luke is hunting today:

My MAGA 7 stocks are seven smaller AI companies — several of which you’ve likely never heard of — that are about to ride a wave of federal funding, corporate spending, and reshoring urgency into the spotlight.

They’re building the tools. Laying the fiber. Supplying the chips. Automating the factories. And powering the intelligence behind America’s next great tech renaissance.

For more on this basket of AI leaders, as well as the broader investment opportunity surrounding AI and robotics, Luke is holding his 2025 Summer Panic Summit tomorrow at 7 PM Eastern.

Here, Luke explains why “panic” is the appropriate word to use:

Investors are sitting on a record $7 trillion in cash, waiting for the opportunity to jump in. Private equity alone is sitting on at least $2.62 trillion, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Though the ZBT Indicator says the surge starts now, a second, even bigger catalyst on May 7 could change the entire market and create a summer “panic” like we’ve not seen since 1997.

Similar to how many naysayers of the early days of the Covid rally eventually realized they were late to the rebound and cannonballed into stocks, Luke believes we’ll see a similar dynamic play out in the coming weeks/months. You’ll get all those details on Thursday. To join, clicking here will instantly sign up with an auto-registration.

Circling back to Buffett and the idea of a one-time, huge, but solvable problem, here’s Luke with measured perspective:

Volatility creates opportunity.

Every sell-off feels scary in the moment. But in hindsight, it always looks like a gift.

This time will be no different.

Beneath the surface of the market chaos, the next great tech rally is forming.

Here’s the one-click, instant sign-up link again.

Is it time to stock up on toilet paper again?

In yesterday’s Digest, we reported on the knife-edge drop in shipping traffic from China to U.S.

According to Vizion Global Ocean Bookings Tracker, China-to-U.S. vessel traffic has fallen 22.2% over the last two weeks. On a year-over-year basis, it’s off 44%.

This is resulting in a sharp rise in “blank sailings” between China and the U.S.

For more, Let’s go to maritime news website Splash 247:

Blank sailings occur when ocean carriers skip scheduled port calls due to low freight demand or equipment shortages, disrupting supply chains.

In April 2025, over 80 blank sailings were reported, surpassing the 51 from May 2020, signaling a severe collapse in global shipping activity…

The Sea-Intelligence Blank Sailings Tracker measures, on a weekly basis, the number of planned sailings which are blanked for the coming 12 weeks, as well as the capacity taking out due to this blanking.

The latest data from Sea-Intelligence, described as “staggering” in a weekly report published yesterday, shows that carriers anticipate container demand for week 18, next week, on the Asia to US west coast trade lane will be 28% lower than expected, while for week 19, carriers are expecting shippers to move as much as 42% less cargo than anticipated on the Asia to US east coast trade lane. 

Now, this doesn’t mean it’s time to race to the supermarket and stock up on toilet paper (over 99% of toilet paper used in the U.S. is domestically produced). But unless something changes, supplies of toys, apparel, and furniture could be sparse in the coming weeks.

Here’s Investopedia from yesterday:

If traffic remains depressed, Americans may soon contend with shortages of items commonly sourced from China, which could push prices higher, [Torsten Sløk, Apollo Global Management’s chief economist] said.

Ongoing and fast-evolving trade policies could have a particularly dramatic impact on toys, apparel and furniture.

Some $41 billion in toys, games and sports equipment was imported in 2024, and merchandise from China accounted for more than 70% of that, according to data from the Department of Commerce.

Remember, if we learned one thing with Covid, it’s that supply chains turn off quickly, but can take months to restart.

So, beyond the immediate economic hit, the longer this trade war drags on, the greater the risk that shortages extend into the back-to-school and holiday shopping seasons.

But – quoting ourselves from earlier in this Digest

All the investment/economic damage suffered over the last two months has been self-inflicted…which means it can be self-corrected.

Just one social media post from President Trump will begin cleaning up all this mess, and will send the market exploding higher. After all…

A great investment opportunity occurs when a marvelous stock market encounters a one-time, huge, but solvable trade war.

That’s what we’re hoping for…and it’s what Luke is positioning his readers for.

Have a good evening,

Jeff Remsburg



Source link

Why Stocks Are Soaring – and Why May 7 Could Change Everything


A flood of cash is poised to rush back into U.S. stocks…

Editor’s Note: The markets have been a rollercoaster lately… but behind the volatility, a historic opportunity may be emerging.

Last week, we saw signs of a major market shift, including a rare convergence of signals that is pointing to a potential surge in U.S. stocks. Add in a flood of cash just waiting to re-enter the market – a key financial event that my InvestorPlace colleague Luke Lango predicts will occur on May 7 – and we could be at the front end of a major rally.

Luke believes that a massive bull market surge will occur due to a $7 trillion wave of cash re-entering the stock market, triggering what he calls a “Summer Panic” like we’ve not seen since 1997.

That is why he is holding a special 2025 Summer Panic Summit on May 1 at 7 p.m. Eastern. At this event, Luke will discuss why this one ultra-rare technical indicator flashing last week may be the clearest “buy” signal we’ve seen in years… and why the catalyst on May 7 could change the entire market.

Most importantly, at the event Luke will introduce you to a new set of stocks that he believes are primed to lead the next wave of growth.

Click here to reserve your spot. But hurry, you only have one more day to save your seat.

Today, Luke is joining us to discuss what he sees coming. Take it away…

The stock market turned around last week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both going up for fourstraight days. But that’s nothing compared to what’s next…

A flood of cash—roughly $7 trillion—is poised to rush back into U.S. stocks. One ultra-rare signal says the surge starts now, and a second, even bigger catalyst on May 7 could change the entire market and create a summer “panic” like we’ve not seen since 1997.

Look no further than today’s market dynamics for proof of the coming storm…

Trade-war headlines are whipping the market back and forth. Fear of tech slowdowns are freezing would-be buyers. Record cash piles are sitting idle while volatility rattles Wall Street. Most investors feel trapped, wondering whether the next big move is another crash.

That may sound scary… but what we’re seeing are the fingerprints of a bottom, not a collapse.

In today’s issue, I’ll unpack some of those developments…. including the fact that my favorite technical indicator triggered on Thursday.

And I’ll tell you why those developments could mean we’re at the start of a big rally.

But I’ll also get into the key financial event that’s set for May 7… and why it could create even bigger market moves than what we’ve seen so far this year.

I’ve also identified seven specific ways to position ourselves to profit from this Summer Panic – and I’ll start laying that out for you now:

Why the Market Took Off Last Week

First, the fundamentals are turning green.

Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) reported strong quarterly earnings Thursday night. Revenues grew steadily in both advertising and cloud — two segments that investors feared would show signs of strain amid the trade war drama. But no big slowdown showed up.

Alphabet’s results poured cold water on the tech slowdown fears that have weighed on markets for weeks.

Meanwhile, more positive signs are emerging on the trade front.

Reports broke on Friday that China is considering exemptions for certain U.S. imports from its 125% retaliatory tariff. That comes just days after the U.S. issued its own exemptions from its 145% tariff on Chinese goods.

One side softens. Then the other. That’s how deals get made.

Stocks rallied. The dollar rallied. Bonds rallied. The “Sell America” panic trade is turning into a “Buy America” rally.

The stage is now set for trade deals over the next few months. Plus we’re seeing strong earnings and stabilizing inflation.

All of this makes the May 7 catalyst I’m expecting even more likely.

For technical traders, the story is just as bullish…

Ultra-Rare Indicator Triggered

On Thursday, the Zweig Breadth Thrust bullish signal officially triggered.

A ZBT signal is triggered during very strong price momentum… when the stock market moves from an oversold to an overbought situation in 10 or fewer trading days.

The ZBT is an ultra-rare, ultra-bullish indicator that’s only flashed 18 times since World War II. In every single instance, stocks were higher a year later — with average gains of 25%.

That’s not noise. That’s a signal.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 just last week notched three straight days of gains over 1.5%. That’s another rare signal. Since 1950, every time that’s happened, stocks have been higher a year later — every single time — with average gains of 10%.

You don’t see this kind of price action in the middle of a collapse. You see it when a collapse is ending.

We think stocks have bottomed — and we’re very bullish heading into the summer.

These sorts of catalysts are often the most important thing in investing.

Regional banks and biotechs can trade sideways for years… and then surge 100% on a takeover offer. Falling stocks tend to continue downward until a good news catalyst stems the tide.

And now, I’ve identified a new catalyst that I believe will change the entire market.

Forget the Mag 7… Meet the MAGA 7.

What happens when you mix the most transformational technological megatrend of our lives (AI) with arguably the most ambitious U.S. president we’ve ever seen (Trump)?

You could ignite a $7 trillion Summer Panic in the markets… the sort of surge that we haven’t seen since the 1997 internet boom.

That’s because investors are sitting on a record $7 trillion in cash, waiting for the opportunity to jump in. Private equity alone is sitting on at least $2.62 trillion, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

That means we could see an enormous return of this cash to the stock market this summer.

Because here’s the truth: What we’ve seen in 2025 isn’t the stock market’s first “crash” in recent years.

The 2010 Flash Crash. The 2011 U.S. debt ceiling downgrade. The 2015 yuan devaluation. The 2018 Fed hike panic. The 2020 Covid crash. The 2022 inflation meltdown.

All of them were buying opportunities for those who knew where to look.

It was during many of the stock market crashes in the last decade that I nailed the rise of the Magnificent 7 stocks.

Amid the commodity crisis of the mid-2010s, I picked out Meta Platforms Inc. (META), Apple Inc. (AAPL), Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), and Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) as long-term winners. All four have recorded max gains of somewhere between 800% and 1,000% since I picked them.

Then, in February 2018, the stock market found itself in one of its fastest 10% corrections ever. On the other side of that plunge, I pinpointed Google as a long-term winner. It has soared nearly 300% since then.

And in the summer of 2019, the stock market found itself in another small sell-off. That’s when I pinpointed Tesla Inc. (TSLA) and Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) as great stocks. Since then, Tesla has recorded a max gain of more than 3,700%, while Nvidia has shot up as much as 4,000%.

In other words, I called the Magnificent 7 before they were the Mag 7, and I did so during periods of elevated market volatility.

I don’t say this to brag. Rather, I say this to submit to you a truth that people often forget: Volatility creates opportunity.

Every sell-off feels scary in the moment. But in hindsight, it always looks like a gift.

This time will be no different.

Beneath the surface of the market chaos, the next great tech rally is forming.

However, it’s not forming in the Mag 7 stocks. Those stocks are yesterday’s trade – not tomorrow’s big breakout.

In this next wave, the biggest winners won’t be what I’m calling the MAGA 7. I’m talking “Make AI Great in America” stocks.

AI is already very good in America. But in the next phase of the AI boom, it will become great. We will Make AI Great in America (MAGA) over the next few years.

My MAGA 7 stocks are seven smaller AI companies — several of which you’ve likely never heard of — that are about to ride a wave of federal funding, corporate spending, and reshoring urgency into the spotlight.

They’re building the tools. Laying the fiber. Supplying the chips.

Automating the factories. And powering the intelligence behind America’s next great tech renaissance.

And I’m laying it all out at on Thursday, May 1, at 7 p.m. Eastern during my next free broadcast, The Summer Panic Summit (sign up by going here)

The May 7 shock… the $7 trillion panic. the seven little-known AI stocks that I believe will emerge as massive winners thanks to AI acceleration when the smoke clears. 

Remember: Volatility creates opportunity. It always has. It always will.

Click here to save your seat for Thursday’s free broadcast event.

See you there.

Good investing,

Luke Lango

Editor, Early Stage Investor



Source link

AI Stocks Could Explode After the May 7 Market Shakeup


What happens when you mix the most transformational technological megatrend of our lives (AI) with arguably the most ambitious U.S. president we’ve ever seen (Trump)?

You could ignite a $7 trillion Summer Panic in the markets… the sort of surge that we haven’t seen since the 1997 internet boom.

And we think that panic could unfurl as soon as next week, on May 7, when the White House is expected to kickstart an AI acceleration

In short, investors are sitting on a record $7 trillion in cash, waiting for the opportunity to jump in. Private equity alone is holding at least $2.62 trillion, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

That means we could see an enormous return of this cash to the stock market this summer. 

Because here’s the truth: What we’ve seen in 2025 isn’t the stock market’s first “crash” in recent years.

The 2010 Flash Crash. 2011’s U.S. debt ceiling downgrade, the 2015 yuan devaluation, and 2018’s Fed hike panic. The 2020 Covid crash and ‘22’s inflation meltdown.

All were buying opportunities for those who knew where to look.

In fact, it was during many of the last decade’s stock market crashes that I nailed the rise of the “Magnificent 7” stocks…



Source link