Category Monthly Dividend

Updated on April 16th, 2025 by Nathan Parsh

Sabine Royalty Trust (SBR) has a high dividend yield of nearly 8% based on annualized distributions over the first four months of 2025. This places Sabine on the high-dividend stocks list. You can see all 5%+ yielding stocks here.

Sabine also pays dividends on a monthly schedule, which means investors receive their dividends more frequently than the traditional quarterly schedule.

There are 76 monthly dividend stocks. You can see our complete list of monthly dividend stocks, with important financial metrics like dividend yields, price-to-earnings ratios, and payout ratios, by clicking on the link below:

Royalty trusts have unique characteristics and risk factors that investors should consider before investing. However, thanks to their high yields, they could be appealing to income investors. Investors looking for exposure to the oil and gas industry may also find them attractive.

This article will discuss Sabine’s business model and why investors anticipating higher oil and gas prices may want to examine this royalty trust more closely.

Business Overview

Sabine Royalty Trust was established on December 31st, 1982. Its business model is based on income received from its royalty and mineral interests in various oil and gas properties. Sabine is a small-cap stock, with a market capitalization of $946 million.

Its oil and gas-producing properties are located in Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. The trust has a long and successful history. When it was formed in 1982, its reserves were estimated at 9 million barrels of oil and 62 million cubic feet of gas.

At inception, the trust’s lifespan was pegged at 9 to 10 years. It was expected to be fully depleted by 1993. More than 40 years later, Sabine Royalty Trust is still kicking. In that time, the trust has produced 24.6 million barrels of oil and 313 billion cubic feet of gas.

Growth Prospects

Rising oil and gas prices are Sabine’s biggest growth catalyst. Supportive commodity prices are critical for the trust’s ability to generate higher royalty income, which yields higher distribution payouts. As oil and gas prices both rallied to multi-year highs in 2022, SBR achieved blowout results that year.

Sabine is a pass–through vehicle for royalty payments—essentially, all the royalty income (cash) it receives is passed through to unit holders. About 5%–8% of royalty income is consumed in administrative expenses. The trust generated distributable cash flow per unit of $5.45 per unit over the last year, down from $6.38 in 2023 and $8.65 in 2022.

However, Sabine’s cash flows are highly cyclical due to the dramatic swings in oil and gas prices, which have resulted in a markedly volatile performance record. Given the high comparison base in the very recent past, we expect a 4% average annual decline of distributable cash flow per unit over the next five years.

Dividend Analysis

Sabine Royalty Trust pays a monthly distribution. The record date each month is usually the 15th day.
Distributions are paid no later than 10 business days after the monthly record date.

The distribution of Sabine fluctuates depending on the direction of oil and gas prices. During favorable periods, the trust has distributed $3-$4 per unit annually. The trust exceeded this level by an impressive margin last year due to blowout commodity prices.

Sabine’s distribution history over the past 10 years is as follows:

• 2013 distributions of $3.92 per unit
• 2014 distributions of $4.10 per unit
• 2015 distributions of $3.11 per unit
• 2016 distributions of $1.93 per unit
• 2017 distributions of $2.23 per unit
• 2018 distributions of $3.35 per unit
• 2019 distributions of $3.02 per unit
• 2020 distributions of $2.40 per unit
• 2021 distributions of $3.97 per unit
• 2022 distributions of $8.65 per unit
• 2023 distributions of $6.38 per unit
• 2024 distributions of $5.45 per unit

Sabine distributed approximately $8.65 per unit to investors in 2022, more than double the distribution in 2021, thanks to the tailwind from the Ukrainian crisis and the resultant rally in oil and gas prices.

Sabine distributed $1.69 per unit in the first four months of 2025. On an annualized basis, this represents a full-year payout of roughly $5.08 per unit. Using the current share price of $65, this equates to a distribution yield of 7.8%. Of course, the company could distribute more or less than this, depending on where oil and gas prices are headed over the remainder of the year.

On the bright side for the trust, the war between Russia and Ukraine continues and hence the price of oil may remain elevated in the upcoming months. On the other hand, whenever this war comes to an end, it will probably cause a sharp correction in the price of oil.

It is also important to note that most countries have been severely hurt by the exceptionally high oil and gas prices in the last 24 months. As a result, they are doing their best to diversify away from fossil fuels, and thus, they are currently investing in renewable energy projects at a record pace. When all these clean energy projects begin to come online, in 2 to 4 years, they will take their toll on global oil and gas consumption.

In fact, as the market is always a forward-looking mechanism, whenever the market focuses on the potential impact of these projects on the energy market, the price of oil will probably plunge from its current level.

Final Thoughts

Royalty trusts like Sabine are essentially a bet on commodity prices. From an operational standpoint, the trust’s fundamentals look strong. Sabine has high-quality oil and gas properties that have kept the trust going for four decades, much longer than originally expected.

If oil and gas prices remain around their current levels for years, the trust’s assets could potentially be undervalued. However, we believe that oil and gas prices will enter another downcycle at some point in the future, just like they always have. Whenever the next downturn of the energy sector shows up, Sabine will have significant downside risk and reduce its distributions. Overall, investors should carefully review the risks and unique considerations that go along with investing in volatile royalty trusts.

Don’t miss the resources below for more monthly dividend stock investing research.

And see the resources below for more compelling investment ideas for dividend growth stocks and/or high-yield investment securities.

Updated on April 11th, 2025 by Nathan Parsh

San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT) has a dividend yield of more than 6%, based on its annualized distributions for 2024.

San Juan Basin has a very enticing payout, considering the S&P 500 Index currently has a ~1.4% dividend yield. That means San Juan Basin offers about four times as much dividend income as the average stock in the S&P 500.

Like most other stocks, San Juan Basin also pays its dividend each month, rather than each quarter. This gives investors the benefit of more frequent dividend payouts.

San Juan Basin is one of only 76 monthly dividend stocks we currently track. You can download our full list of monthly dividend stocks (along with important financial metrics like dividend yields and payout ratios) by clicking on the link below:

However, San Juan Basin’s dividend may not be as attractive as it seems. The payout has been slashed repeatedly in recent years, and the trust hasn’t paid a distribution since April 2024, highlighting that royalty trusts are a highly risky type of security.

This article will discuss why investors should be skeptical of royalty trusts like San Juan Basin.

Business Overview

San Juan Basin is a royalty trust established in November 1980. The trust is entitled to a 75% royalty interest in various oil and gas properties across over 150,000 gross acres, in the San Juan Basin of northwestern New Mexico.

On July 31st, 2017, Hilcorp San Juan LP completed its purchase of San Juan Basin assets from Burlington Resources Oil & Gas Company LP, a subsidiary of ConocoPhillips (COP).

More than 90% of the trust’s production is gas, with the remainder oil. The trust does not have a specified termination date. It will terminate if royalty income falls below $1,000,000 annually over two years.

The past four years have been difficult for the San Juan Basin. Not surprisingly, this was due to lower oil and gas prices. Things became even more challenging in 2020, as the coronavirus pandemic resulted in a steep decline in oil and gas prices.

The average realized price of natural gas for the San Juan Basin decreased from $1.79 in 2019 to $1.51 in 2020. The average realized oil price decreased from $45.11 per barrel in 2019 to $31.47 per barrel in 2020. As a result, its distributable income per unit dipped 9%, from $0.174 in 2019 to $0.159 in 2020. Due to poor cash flows, the trust suspended its distribution for 6 months in 2019 and another 4 months in 2020.

Fortunately, the San Juan Basin recovered strongly in 2021 and 2022 thanks to the recovery of the energy market from the pandemic. Thanks to the impressive rally of the price of natural gas, which resulted from pent-up demand after the pandemic and tight supply, distributable income per unit nearly quintupled, from $0.159 in 2020 to $0.77 in 2021. In 2022,  the total distributable income was $1.66.

Even better, the price of natural gas has rallied to new highs following European countries’ sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Europe generates 31% of its electricity from natural gas provided by Russia, but it is doing its best to reduce its reliance on Russia. As a result, there has been a huge increase in LNG exports from the U.S. to Europe. Consequently, the U.S. natural gas market surged during this period.

However, 2024 was a rough year for the trust as total distributable income fell from $1.11 in 2023 to just $0.11 last year.

Growth Prospects

There are two significant growth catalysts for the San Juan Basin moving forward. The first is higher commodity prices, which would help the San Juan Basin generate higher cash flows. Specifically, higher gas prices would be a huge boost for the San Juan Basin since gas accounts for the vast majority of production.

The other major growth catalyst for San Juan Basin will be if the trust’s oil and gas properties are produced for longer than expected. San Juan Basin is not exactly sure of the trust’s lifespan. It has hired independent petroleum engineers, who conservatively estimated that the trust is likely to continue to produce for at least another 10-15 years, but this was in 2011.

These two factors determine whether the San Juan Basin is a good investment. The trust is not permitted to engage in any business activity, which includes using any portion of the trust estate to acquire additional properties.

In the fourth quarter of 2024, the trust reported that gas production fell 5% while the price of gas plunged 33% compared to the prior year’s quarter due to a warmer winter. As a result, the trust did not pay any distributions. In fact, San Juan Basin suspended its distributions since May 2024 due to excess operating costs and low gas prices.

Production costs totaled $21.7 million ($16.3 million net to the trust) as of March 21st, 2025. San Juan Basin will not resume distributions until costs moderate and gas prices recover. The trust could resume distributions in the upcoming months, but this is not guaranteed, especially if costs remain high and prices remain subdued.

If the trust does not have gross revenue of at least $1 million in 2025 and 2026, termination provisions will be triggered.

Dividend Analysis

San Juan Basin’s distributions are classified as royalty income as a trust. Distributions are considered ordinary income and are taxed at the individual’s marginal tax rate. Since gas prices are so important to royalty trusts’ cash flow, it is no surprise that San Juan Basin’s dividends have declined when gas prices have declined, such as from 2014 to 2016 and again in 2020.

San Juan Basin has made the following distributions since the previous oil and gas industry downturn:

• 2014 distributions-per-share of $1.2846
• 2015 distributions-per-share of $0.3647
• 2016 distributions-per-share of $0.2989
• 2017 distributions-per-share of $0.8395
• 2018 distributions-per-share of $0.3859
• 2019 distributions-per-share of $0.1737
• 2020 distributions-per-share of $0.159
• 2021 distributions-per-share of $0.77
• 2022 distributions-per-share of $1.57
• 2023 distributions-per-share of $1.11
• 2024 distributions-per-share of $0.11

Despite an uptick in distributions in 2017, declining commodity prices have caused San Juan Basin’s fundamentals to deteriorate steadily since 2014. This, in turn, led to lower distribution payments.

On the bright side, the San Juan Basin recovered strongly from the pandemic year and last year. However, in the first four months of 2024, it offered distributions per unit of $0.11. San Juan Basin would pay approximately $0.33 per unit for the full year at this rate. This payout level would represent a yield of 6.4% based on the current unit price of $5.18.

If oil and gas prices can increase, San Juan Basin’s distributions could increase to a level that makes the stock attractive. For example, if the trust lasts another 10 years, investors will want a dividend yield well in excess of 10% annually to make San Juan Basin a successful investment.

Of course, there is no guarantee of a longer life span nor that oil and gas prices will return to their highs. As a result, royalty trusts are a particularly risky way to invest in the energy sector.

Final Thoughts

Investing in the San Juan Basin right now is essentially betting on two things: high oil and gas prices and a longer-than-expected lifespan of the trust.

Royalty trusts can be a good source of dividend income thanks to their high yields. However, investors must ensure the trust’s assets do not run out before the initial investment is paid back. San Juan Basin investors will need the extremely high prices of natural gas and oil to remain in place for years to make the stock a good investment.

We view this favorable scenario as highly unlikely. As such, investors looking for less risk from a dividend stock are encouraged to avoid royalty trusts like San Juan Basin.

Don’t miss the resources below for more monthly dividend stock investing research.

And see the resources below for more compelling investment ideas for dividend growth stocks and/or high-yield investment securities.

Published on April 11th, 2025 by Nathan Parsh

Companies that pay monthly dividends can help investors secure consistent cash flows, providing income more regularly than those that pay quarterly or annual payments.

That said, just 76 companies currently offer monthly dividend payments, which can severely limit an investor’s options. You can see all 76 monthly dividend-paying names here.

You can download our full Excel spreadsheet of all monthly dividend stocks (along with metrics that matter, like dividend yield and payout ratio) by clicking on the link below:

One name that we have not yet reviewed is Savaria Corporation (SISXF), a Canadian-based company that operates in the accessibility industry. Shares currently yield more than 3.6%, which is more than twice the average yield of the S&P 500 Index.

This article will evaluate the company, its business model, and its dividend to determine whether Savaria Corporation is a good candidate for purchase.

Business Overview

Savaria Corporation is a specialty industrial machinery company that provides accessibility solutions for the elderly and disabled. Though the company has a market capitalization of just $789 million, Savaria Corporation has a solid global footprint.

The company operates in Canada, the U.S., the U.K., Germany, China, and Italy. Savaria Corporation has more than 1 million square feet of production space, 30 direct sales offices, and 17 product and distribution centers.

Savaria Corporation comprises several business segments, including Accessibility, Patient Care, and Adapted Vehicles.

Accessibility manufactures products such as stairlifts for straight and curved staircases and wheelchair platform lifts. This segment contributes ~70% of revenue. Patient Care, which accounts for 21% of revenue, manufactures and markets therapeutic support surfaces for medical beds and other medical equipment. Adapted Vehicles produces vehicles for use by patients with mobility difficulties. This segment is the smallest within the company, making up less than 10% of total revenue. The company was founded in 1979 and is based in Laval, Quebec, Canada.

The company reported solid financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024.

Source: Fourth Quarter Earnings Results

Revenue reached $223.3 million, an increase of 3.0% compared to Q4 2023. This growth was driven by 0.9% organic growth and a 2.1% positive foreign exchange impact. The company’s Accessibility segment had 3.4% organic growth during the quarter, while the Patient Care segment improved 4.5%. Gross profit rose by 12.5%, and operating income improved by 16.6%, reflecting higher margins and increased efficiency.

Savaria’s adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $42.87 million, up 22.1% from the previous year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 19.2%. The Accessibility segment had a particularly strong performance, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 19.8%. Patient Care maintained a healthy 19.1% margin. Additionally, Savaria reduced its net debt ratio to 1.63, signaling improved financial health and liquidity, with available funds of $242.8 million for future investments and growth.

Growth Prospects

Savaria Corporation has a number of tailwinds that should help the company continue to grow. First, the company’s main markets are seeing elderly people make up a higher percentage of the total population. In the U.S. alone, those over 65 are projected to make up more than 20% of the population by 2030. People in this age group tend to require more assistance with mobility.

Next, the vast majority of older people wish to remain in their homes. According to AARP, nearly 80% of people over 50 want to stay in their homes as they age. More than two-thirds say that their properties have accessibility issues inside and outside the home. Savaria should be able to capitalize on this trend as it buys up smaller players in the industry.

Source: Investor Presentation

Savaria Corporation estimates that the global long-term market will grow at 6% annually through 2030, a solid, if not spectacular, growth rate. By the end of this decade, the U.S. is forecasted to have more than 20 million people requiring long-term care.

Given that people live longer, want to remain in their homes, and have accessibility challenges, a company like Savaria Corporation is poised to benefit from product demand.

The company offers a variety of products, from chair lifts to vehicles to beds, that can greatly improve the quality of life for customers. This can also help people remain in their homes instead of entering an adult care center, which can be much more expensive than the products that Savaria Corporation markets. People wishing to remain in their home could very well be willing to purchase a product if it means that they can continue to live as they have.

Dividend Analysis

Savaria Corporation began paying an annual dividend before switching to a quarterly dividend in 2013. By late 2017, the company converted to its current monthly payment schedule.

Payments have fluctuated for U.S. investors due to currency exchange, but the size of the dividend has gradually increased over the years. U.S. investors received $0.37 in annual dividends in 2024 and are expected to receive $0.39 in 2025. For the most part, dividend growth has been very low over the last five years. We do not anticipate that this will change.

The dividend hasn’t increased materially in the past and is not forecasted to do so in the near future due to the high payout ratio. Last year, Savaria Corporation’s payout ratio was 79%. It should be noted that the company has raised its dividend for 12 consecutive years in local currency.

With results showing signs of growth, the dividend is likely safe. A downturn in the business could call that into question, especially considering the debt on the company’s balance sheet.

The annualized rate of $0.39 for U.S. investors results in a 3.6% yield.

Final Thoughts

Savaria Corporation is a small, monthly dividend-paying company that is well-positioned to take advantage of people who are living longer. With most people wanting to remain in their homes, tackling accessibility and mobility challenges will likely be a significant industry in the coming decade.

This positions the company in an advantageous spot. A growing business should help defend its dividends and provide the capital needed to pay down debt to a much more manageable level. Lower debt would also help to protect the dividend. Investors looking for monthly income and access to a growing population might find Savaria Corporation an attractive investment option.

Don’t miss the resources below for more monthly dividend stock investing research.

And see the resources below for more compelling investment ideas for dividend growth stocks and/or high-yield investment securities.

Updated on April 11th, 2025 by Nathan Parsh

As the saying goes, if something looks too good to be true, it usually is just that. This can often be applied to unusually high-yielding dividend stocks, many of which have to cut their dividends in a recession.

For example, Stellus Capital Investment Corp. (SCM) has a dividend yield of more than 13%, which is very attractive on the surface. The S&P 500 Index, on average, has a dividend yield of just 1.4%.

Not only that, but Stellus pays its dividend each month rather than each quarter, like most companies. This helps to make Stellus stand out, as we currently cover 76 monthly dividend stocks.

You can download the full list of monthly dividend stocks (along with important financial metrics such as dividend yields and payout ratios) by clicking on the link below:

However, while high dividend stocks appeal in a relatively low-rate environment, investors must ensure the dividend is sustainable.

Stellus has a very high expected payout ratio of more than 100%. As a BDC, Stellus is required to distribute essentially all of its income, so its payout ratio will always be high. However, it is in investors’ best interests to carefully monitor the company’s earnings performance for signs that a cut in the distribution may be coming.

This article will discuss Stellus’ fundamentals as they pertain to supporting its high dividend yield.

Business Overview

Stellus is a Business Development Company (BDC) that invests in small, predominantly private companies that are usually at an early stage in their growth cycles.

Stellus is a middle-market investment firm that makes equity and debt investments in private middle-market companies. The company provides capital solutions to companies with $5 million to $50 million of EBITDA and does so with various instruments, the majority of which are debt.

Stellus provides first lien, second lien, mezzanine, convertible debt, and equity investments to a diverse group of customers, generally at high yields, in the US and Canada.

Source: Investor Presentation

It also has a highly diversified investment portfolio, both geographically and in terms of industry concentration. Stellus will make various debt investments, including first lien, second lien, uni-tranche, and mezzanine financing.

The investments are placed in various industries, including business services, industrial, healthcare, technology, energy, consumer products, and finance. Invested capital is used for a wide range of purposes, including acquisitions, growth investments, and more. Stellus is externally managed by Stellus Capital Management LLC, a registered investment advisor.

The company follows a disciplined investment strategy. In prior years, it closed only about 2% of deals reviewed. Its relative selectiveness allows the company to focus on the highest-quality investments.

It also means the company has far more investment opportunities than it needs, enhancing its ability to select only the best investments. Stellus generates particularly high yields from its first lien, second lien, and unsecured debt investments.

Next, we’ll take a look at the company’s growth prospects.

Growth Prospects

A strong catalyst for Stellus is its growing investment portfolio. Over the past five years, Stellus has seen its portfolio rise rapidly, allowing the company to earn higher investment income.

However, this all stopped in 2020 as the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a deep recession, negatively impacting many of Stellus’ investments.

The company reported its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024 on March 4th, 2025. Net investment income was $9.6 million, or $0.35 per share, down from $11.9 million, or $0.49 per share, in the prior year. The company’s loan portfolio had a 10.3% yield, and investors have received the equivalent of $16.95 per share in distributions since inception.

The company funded $109 million of investments during the quarter and received $65 million of repayments, ending the year with a total portfolio fair value of $953 million.

Dividend Analysis

As far as dividend stocks go, Stellus is not a typical choice. Its dividend history is fewer than 10 years, which means it has not yet developed a long track record of consistency.

You can see an image of the company’s distribution history below:

Source: Investor Presentation

Stellus currently pays a monthly dividend of $0.1333 per share, equating to an annualized payout of $1.5996. The company cut its dividend in mid-2020 due to the pandemic. On a positive note, Stellus has paid out special distributions in the past to supplement its attractive monthly dividend further, but this last occurred in 2022.

Net investment income is expected to come in at $1.50 per share for 2025. With the current annualized dividend of $1.5996, Stellus currently has a payout ratio of 107%. This means the current dividend payout is exceeding what the company brings in at this point. Remember that BDCs are required to distribute nearly all of their income, so Stellus’ payout ratio will always be high.

Even a modest decline in investment income could cause the payout ratio to rise even higher than already projected, which signals a potentially unsustainable dividend.

As its recent results indicate, Stellus must continue to increase its investments. Stellus is a high-risk, high-reward dividend stock. If the company’s growth stays on track, investors will receive a ~13.4% return from the dividend, plus any capital appreciation from a rising share price.

Even if the company maintains its dividend, investors should not expect much dividend growth going forward. Net investment growth has been sluggish, and given the high payout ratio, we don’t see any catalysts for a higher payout in the near future.

Final Thoughts

Stellus could be an attractive pick as it has a 13%+ dividend yield and some measure of growth potential.

Plus, Stellus pays its dividend each month, which helps boost the compounding effect of reinvested dividends and enhances the stock’s attractiveness to those who rely on dividends for living expenses.

Of course, there is no guarantee the company’s growth plans will be successful and with a payout ratio above 100%, there is not much room for error. As a result, investors must accept the risk of a future dividend cut if financial results deteriorate. Only investors willing to take this risk should consider buying the stock.

Don’t miss the resources below for more monthly dividend stock investing research.

And see the resources below for more compelling investment ideas for dividend growth stocks and/or high-yield investment securities.

Forecasters are split on whether President Donald Trump’s tariff campaign will push the economy into a recession, with many seeing increased risks.

That’s according to the 57 economists who responded to a Wall Street Journal survey in April. The poll showed that, on average, the forecasters predicted a 45% chance of the economy going into a recession in the next 12 months, up from 20% the last time the poll was taken in January.

The economic outlook worsened significantly in February when Trump started announcing tariffs against U.S. trading partners. Many forecasters have changed their expectations that the U.S. would experience a “soft landing” from the post-pandemic surge of inflation to bracing for a downturn as the tariffs and other economic headwinds force businesses and households to reduce their spending.

One expert laid out the reasons she expects a recession, another why a downturn is unlikely.

The Argument That A Recession Is on the Horizon

Among the most pessimistic is Amy Crews Cutts, an independent forecaster, who said she was 99% confident of a recession taking hold within a year.

Several recent surveys have supported Cutts’s expectations that a recession is on the horizon. One was a survey of small business owners by the National Federation of Independent Businesses. Over the course of several months, the owners’ moods went from elation at Trump’s election victory to uncertainty about the impact of tariffs. An index measuring optimism plunged since January.

A separate survey of business financial professionals showed that businesses were having a harder time getting paid by clients in recent months, suggesting financial stress building among the companies that keep the economy running. The National Association of Credit Managers’ Credit Managers’ Index, which Cutts oversees, showed the economy was still expanding in March but at a slower pace than before.

Cutts was especially alarmed by remarks managers made in the open comment section of the survey, indicating they had seen an uptick in small businesses simply closing shop without declaring bankruptcy.

Cutts also noted that Trump’s on-again, off-again tariff announcements have wreaked havoc on businesses that import goods from overseas, especially because the import taxes have not exempted goods “on the water” or already being shipped, meaning that some businesses could find themselves scrambling to cover unexpected costs. Canceled orders and financial stress could translate into an economic slowdown and job losses.

Turbulence in financial markets could also influence the economy. People whose stock portfolios have suffered are less likely to make purchases, possibly throwing sand into the gears of the main engine of the U.S. economy, consumer spending. Cutts said that damage has been done even if the punishingly high tariffs are eventually negotiated down or called off.

“Even if I flipped a switch and tomorrow and said, ‘Sorry, joke’s on me, it all goes away,’ it will take us several quarters to unwind the damage that’s already happened,” she said. “So, for me, that says recession.”

Why A Recession Might Not Happen

On the other end of the spectrum is Allen Sinai of Decision Economics, who gives only a 20% chance of a recession in the next 12 months. That’s an increase from the 10% chance he saw in January, but still a relatively remote possibility.

Chief among Sinai’s reasons for optimism is the job market, which has stayed consistently resilient ever since bouncing back from the mass layoffs caused by the COVID-19 lockdowns. The unemployment rate was 4.2% in March, not far from historic lows and nowhere near indicating an economic downturn.

“We’re fully employed right now,” he said. “The jobs count is fine.”

Sinai also sees green flags in data about consumer spending, the pillar of the economy, responsible for 68% of the gross domestic product. Retail sales soared in March, recovering from a dip in January and a lukewarm February, although economists attributed some of the surge to people racing to make purchases before tariffs drive up prices.

A main point of contention between recession optimists and pessimists is what to make of consumer sentiment data. Consumer surveys show that people have been increasingly worried about inflation, the health of the job market, and their own financial situations in recent months. If people pull back on spending, it could spell trouble for the economy.

However, that shoe has yet to drop, and in the meantime, Sinai sees few signs that either the financial system or the job market is buckling.

“It takes financial trouble in the system to shut off funds or the jobs market caves for one reason or another,” he said.

Consumers may say they are worried about the direction of the economy, but March’s retail sales report shows that didn’t keep them from spending.

U.S. retail sales in March jumped by 1.4% over the prior month, as Census Bureau data showed consumers rushed out to buy cars, building materials and sporting goods. It’s the biggest monthly increase since January 2023.

“We got a much stronger retail sales report than we have seen in a long time,” said Scott Anderson, chief U.S. economist at BMO Economics. “Tariff front-running clearly helped lift retail sales to a whole new level of growth last month.”

The strong results come amid a weak start of the year for the retail sector, which saw sales unexpectedly decline in January and rebound only modestly in February. 

As Expected, Auto Sales Lead March Increases

Economists expected to see an increase in sales last month as consumers moved to make big-ticket purchases in advance of tariffs that will likely create significant price increases.

Much of the 5.3% monthly jump in automobile sales in March likely came after President Donald Trump announced tariffs that will likely push up car prices, including a 25% tax on all automobile imports.

“Some households are getting major purchases in before tariffs bite,”  wrote Wells Fargo economists Tim Quinlan and Shannon Grein. “Vehicles are moving off dealer lots faster than at any time since the post-pandemic demand surge earlier this decade.”

Report Shows Consumers Still Willing to Spend

While consumers working to get ahead of tariffs accounted for some spending, economists said the report showed there was still underlying strength in retail sales. Despite recent sentiment surveys that showed growing pessimism over the state of the economy, consumers are still willing to spend.

“Once again, consumer spending is managing to avoid the gravitational pull of all the negative dynamics that might otherwise hold it back,” Wells Fargo’s economists wrote.

Taking out automobile purchases, retail sales rose a more modest 0.5%, down from February but better than expectations. Sales also rose despite a steep decline in gasoline station transactions as fuel prices remained low. Plus, economists were encouraged to see a 1.8% increase in restaurant and bar sales.

Wells Fargo said it was a key signal that “while spending may be slowing, consumers have not gone into hiding when it comes to discretionary spending.” 

However, Sales Could Still Slow as Tariffs Take Hold

The report covers sales before President Donald Trump’s April 2 announcement of “reciprocal” tariffs, which created more market volatility and further deteriorated consumer confidence.  

Consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, making retail sales a key indicator of ongoing strength. Strong consumer spending helped boost the economy when analysts were anticipating a recession in 2023 that ultimately never emerged.

However, some economists are questioning whether consumer spending can maintain its strength in the face of continued uncertainty surrounding tariffs. 

“We may see another month or two of strong retail sales, but frontloading will eventually end,” Nationwide Financial Markets Economist Oren Klachkin. “Looking ahead, consumers are set to face an array of challenges that will make it hard to sustain robust spending.”

Prospective homebuyers face significant challenges in the modern housing market, from rising home prices and limited inventory to stubbornly high interest rates. As a result, a whopping 76% of consumers believe it’s a bad time to buy a home.

In such a challenging market, your network can provide a much-needed advantage, helping you secure valuable referrals and uncover hidden opportunities. Let’s explore how to make the most of your personal and professional connections during your house-hunting journey.

Opportunities Your Network Can Open Up

Traditional house-hunting methods—like partnering with a local real estate agent and browsing public listings—can help find you a home, but they may not always lead you to the best opportunities. Agents who don’t have a personal connection to you may not prioritize your needs, and public listings often bring stiff competition.

Your personal and professional connections could be the key to unlocking more—and potentially better—options. Here are some of the most significant homebuying opportunities your network can open up:

• Off-market listings: Also known as pocket listings, some properties for sale aren’t listed on the multiple listing service (MLS). These homes can offer benefits to buyers, such as lower competition and more room for negotiation.
• Reliable agents: Your real estate agent can make or break your house hunt, and personal recommendations often help you find the best ones. An agent from your network may work harder for you than one you have no relationship with.
• Local insights: If you’re looking to buy in a new area, connecting with locals can help you gain a better understanding of the neighborhood through their perspective on matters like safety, schools, and new developments.
• Seller goodwill: A connection to a home seller or their agent can create goodwill. That may help you beat out other offers, negotiate more easily, and secure more favorable terms, such as a flexible financing arrangement or lower price.

Networking Tips for Your House Hunt

Here are some tips to help you leverage your social network in your house hunt.

Publicize Your Journey

Start by letting people know you’re looking for a home and asking them to reach out if they come across any opportunities that might be a good fit. Mention it in conversations with your friends, family, and professional acquaintances. If appropriate, consider bringing it up during casual interactions in your current or target neighborhood.

Social media can also help spread the word. In addition to announcing the start of your journey, post regular updates about your search, such as what you’re looking for or challenges you’re facing. That may encourage your network to engage with your efforts and increase the chances of someone providing valuable insights or recommendations.

Expand Your Network

Your existing network is a great place to start your house hunt, but broadening your connections can unlock even more opportunities. Consider attending real estate networking events or investor meetups in your target area. These types of gatherings may put you in contact with agents, brokers, investors, and homeowners, who could have valuable insights or leads.

Digital platforms can also help expand your network. Join local Nextdoor groups, where members discuss their neighborhoods, including events like home sales. Specialized forums like BiggerPockets and real estate communities on platforms like Facebook and Reddit can be another great source of opportunities.

Engage on Social Media

Don’t stop at connecting with or following new people on social media. Actively engage with their content—especially real estate-related posts—by liking and leaving thoughtful comments. That increases your visibility and helps establish you as a serious buyer. The more familiar your name becomes, the more likely people are to think of you when they come across a relevant opportunity.

In addition to interacting with public content, initiate direct conversations. For example, if an agent or seller posts about a listing that appeals to you, reach out to express your interest and request more details. Even simply reaching out to a real estate professional for advice—such as their opinion on market trends or a specific neighborhood—can help you build rapport and may develop into an opportunity. 

Mine Relevant Hashtags

Monitoring real estate hashtags can be an efficient way to sift through social media content. Private sellers and real estate agents often use tags on platforms like Instagram and TikTok to market their listings. Search for general real estate terms—such as #OffMarketListing, #PocketListing, or #ForSaleByOwner—to discover homes that may not be on the MLS yet.

Localized hashtags can help refine your search. For example, if you’re looking for a home in your favorite neighborhoods of Austin, you could combine hashtags like #SouthCongress or #EastAustin with your generalized hashtags to produce results that align with your ideal location.

Look for Underutilized Groups

It’s easy to focus on close friends, family, and real estate agents, but you may be missing valuable networking opportunities. Think outside the box and try to find knowledgeable people you might have overlooked.

For example, consider reaching out to:

• Recent homebuyers: Those who recently bought a home often have valuable insights. For example, they might recommend quality properties that didn’t quite work for them or connect you with an agent who gave them exclusive deals.
• Property managers: Property managers oversee multiple rental properties and may know when landlords struggle to turn a profit or start to consider selling. They could alert you to potential off-market opportunities.
• Home service professionals: Contractors, landscapers, and house cleaners work directly with homeowners and often know when a client is preparing to sell. Like property managers, they could offer early insight into upcoming listings.
• Local business owners: Community-facing professionals like coffee shop owners and barbers interact with many residents daily. They often hear about people planning to move and may provide useful tips or connections.

The Bottom Line

Your social network can be one of your most valuable assets when searching for a home. By making your intentions known and expanding your connections—including to groups others may overlook—you can uncover hidden opportunities, such as off-market listings or agents willing to bring you exclusive deals.

In addition to discussing your house hunt in person, share your journey on social media and engage with others in online real estate spaces. Stay visible and involved so your network keeps you in mind when promising opportunities arise. That may give you the edge you need in today’s competitive homebuying market.

Nvidia (NVDA) said it expects to take a $5.5 billion charge in its fiscal 2026 first-quarter results after the U.S. limited exports of its artificial intelligence (AI) chips to China.

The news, the latest salvo in an escalating trade war between Washington and Beijing, sent the firm’s shares tumbling roughly 6% in premarket trading Wednesday.

The company said in a regulatory filing late Tuesday that it was informed by the U.S. government on April 9 that it would be required to have an export license “for the indefinite future” to sell its H20 chips to China. Nvidia said the license requirement is aimed at addressing the risk that the chip would be “used in, or diverted to, a supercomputer in China.” The chip is less powerful than its newer ones and tailored to meet existing export limits for the Chinese market.

Nvidia’s Q1 results, which are expected May 28, are set to include the $5.5 billion charge “associated with H20 products for inventory, purchase commitments, and related reserves,” it said. According to Morningstar Research, “China has shrunk to about 10% of Nvidia’s revenue from 20%, and we now expect it to go to close to zero.”

The New York Times reported that a spokesman for the U.S. Commerce Department said “that the administration was issuing new export licensing requirements for the Nvidia H20; a chip from Advanced Micro Devices, the MI308; and their equivalents.” AMD (AMD) shares also were down about 6% in premarket trading.

CORRECTION-April 16, 2025: This article has been corrected to note the U.S. Commerce Department has also imposed export controls on AMD’s sales of its AI chips in China. 

Consumers, businesses, and even the prospects for U.S. manufacturing are all likely to become casualties in the escalating trade war between the U.S. and China, trade experts say. 

Last week, the president shifted tariffs to temporarily take some of the pressure off of other countries while punishing China, which has retaliated against the U.S. with tariffs of its own. As of Monday, China faced a tariff of 145% on its products, with a temporary reprieve for electronic devices.

Economists predicted the trade war between the world’s two largest economies would have serious consequences for American consumers and workers.

The Price of Import Taxes

The tariffs, which started this month, could quickly increase the prices shoppers see at popular online and brick-and-mortar retailers.

“Most of the things you might see on the inside of the store at a Target or a Walmart or on Amazon, I think we would expect significant price increases pretty immediately,” said Christopher Conlon, an associate professor of economics at the Stern School of Business at New York University.

Clothing, toys, and plastic items with small electronics in them (such as vacuums, toasters, and small appliances) will likely be among the first products to see immediate price increases. Conlon estimated about 50% to 60% of Amazon’s offerings would be affected, and many would rise by about the same amount as the tariffs.

Conlon had some advice for consumers that economists don’t usually give: it might make sense to buy certain items before prices go up.

“If you have the cash on hand and you’re really worried about buying some of these things, it might not be the worst idea to stock up on them,” he said, noting that big-ticket items that last a long time, like appliances, would make the most sense to buy now. “The big caveat is, of course, next week, we could be having a completely different conversation about tariffs because this situation is evolving very quickly.”

Will the Cost Be Worth It?

Eventually, manufacturers could adapt to the tariffs by moving production out of China to countries like Vietnam or Mexico, which have lower tariff rates, at least for the time being, Conlon said.

But could all the short-term pain result in long-term gain? The tariffs are meant to restore U.S. manufacturing to its glory days after WWII, when America, not China, was the world’s factory, by encouraging businesses to set up plants in the U.S. rather than abroad.

There are a few obstacles standing in the way of that outcome, said Sina Golara, assistant professor of supply chain and operations management at Georgia State University’s Robinson College of Business.

For one thing, even as high as the tariffs are, it still might be more cost-effective to manufacture many things in China than in the U.S., Golara said. Companies hoping to set up in the U.S. would have to not only build a factory but also replicate the infrastructure and supply networks that have been built up over decades. On top of that, U.S. workers are paid more than their Chinese counterparts, adding to production costs.

“The cost gap is so much that even tariffs being as high as they are today would still not make it expensive enough to be worth moving everything to the United States,” Golara said.

In addition, the tariffs themselves are an obstacle because they make it more expensive for a factory located in the U.S. to import parts and materials from other countries.

What Is The Best Outcome From This Trade War?

Another headwind for the U.S. economy is that China has some leverage to harm American consumers and companies with its own trade policies.

China could cut off imports from U.S. companies and stop exports of certain important minerals used in advanced manufacturing, of which China is the main or only supplier, Conlon said.

Experts said the best possible outcome of the showdown for the economy would be if both sides reached a deal to lower tariffs on one another. However, the sprawling nature of Trump’s trade war complicates that task, as does the pattern of on-again, off-again tariff announcements.

“There’s another case where you engage in a war, and then you just dial back half of your tariffs,” Golara said. “In that case, you’re really hurting everyone, except you’re hurting everyone else a little bit more … it’s kind of like a mutual destruction tool.”

The states with the cheapest 30-year mortgage refinance rates Monday were California, New York, Texas, Florida, Utah, Alabama, and Georgia. The seven states registered averages between 6.98% and 7.20%.

Meanwhile, the states with the highest Monday refinance rates were Alaska, West Virginia, South Dakota, Kentucky, South Carolina, Montana, Washington, D.C., and Wyoming. The range of 30-year refi averages for these states was 7.29% to 7.35%.

Mortgage refinance rates vary by the state where they originate. Different lenders operate in different regions, and rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average loan size, and regulations. Lenders also have varying risk management strategies that influence the rates they offer.

Since rates vary widely across lenders, it’s always smart to shop around for your best mortgage option and compare rates regularly, no matter the type of home loan you seek.

National Mortgage Refinance Rate Averages

Rates for 30-year refinance mortgages dropped 8 basis points Monday to a 7.23% national average—reversing course after surging 40 basis points over the previous week. Friday’s 7.31% reading was the highest average for 30-year refi rates since July 2024.

Last month, in contrast, 30-year refi rates sank to 6.71%, their cheapest average of 2025. And back in September, 30-year rates plunged to a two-year low of 6.01%.