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Goldman Sachs economists raised their forecast for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts to three this year and increased their probability of a U.S. recession to 35%, as President Donald Trump’s tariffs put pressure on economic growth.

“We continue to believe the risk from April 2 tariffs is greater than many market participants have previously assumed,” economists led by Jan Hatzius wrote in note Sunday.

The economists said they see the Federal Reserve reducing rates in July, September and November—up from their previous projection of two cuts this year. They noted that “the downside risks to the economy from tariffs have increased the likelihood of a package of 2019-style ‘insurance’ cuts” by the Fed.

Goldman also increased its 12-month recession probability to 35% from 20%, pointing to “soft data” such as a sharp deterioration in household and business confidence and a slowing in real economic growth.

The investment bank raised its forecast for core PCE inflation this year to 3.5%, reduced its GDP growth projection to 1% on a Q4/Q4 basis and increased its outlook for 2025 U.S. unemployment to 4.5%.

Trump announced a 25% tariff on imported cars last week and is planning another round of tariffs against numerous foreign countries on April 2. The tariffs, on top of levies on steel and aluminum imports, are designed to bring manufacturing and jobs back to the U.S.

The S&P 500 (SPX) lost ground last week amid uncertainty about the impact of tariffs and growing concerns the economy could be headed toward a recession.

The index, which has lost ground in five of the last six weeks, could see heightened volatility this week with new tariffs expected on Wednesday, a day President Trump has referred to as “Liberation Day.”

The S&P 500 trades 9% below its record high set last month as the Trump administration’s on again, off again tariff policy has sparked concerns that inflation could reignite and economic growth could stall. The benchmark index fell 2% on Friday to close at 5,581.

Below, we take a closer look at the S&P 500’s chart and apply technical analysis to identify crucial levels worth watching out.

Flag Pattern Breakdown

After falling below the closely watched 200-day moving average, the S&P 500 formed a flag in the second half of March before breaking down below the pattern in Friday’s trading session, potentially paving the way for a continuation move lower.

It’s also worth pointing out that the relative strength index failed to climb back above the 50 threshold during the index’s recent upswing, signaling underlying weak buying momentum.

Let’s identify several crucial support and resistance levels on the S&P 500’s chart that that investors may be monitoring.

Crucial Support Levels to Monitor

Further downside this week could see the index initially decline to around 5,445. This location may provide support near the lower range of a consolidation period that formed on the chart in June last year, which closely aligns with troughs in July and September.

The bulls’ inability to defend this important technical level sets the stage for a possible drop to the 5,260 area. Those who invest in the index may seek buying opportunities in this region near last year’s prominent March peak, the May pullback trough, and the early-August swing low. 

Interestingly, this area also sits in the same vicinity as a projected bars pattern target that takes the index’s move lower in October 2023 following a flag pattern on the chart and overlays it from the current flag pattern.

Key Resistance Levels Worth Watching

A recovery effort could see an initial upswing to around 5,875. The index finds a confluence of resistance at this level near the downward sloping 50-day MA and a trendline that connects a range of similar price points on the chart stretching back to the October peak.

Finally, a breakout above this area may see the S&P 500 climb to the 6,090 level. Market watchers would likely scrutinize this region as it could provide resistance near multiple peaks on the chart positioned just below the index’s record high set last month.

The comments, opinions, and analyses expressed on Investopedia are for informational purposes only. Read our warranty and liability disclaimer for more info.

As of the date this article was written, the author does not own any of the above securities.

Social Security is an essential means of financial support for many older Americans. With so many baby boomers receiving Social Security payments, will there be enough money in the program for future generations?

Changes Needed

The Social Security trust fund will be able to pay 100% of benefits until 2033 and then will only be able to pay 79% of benefits. Changes to Social Security will be needed within the next few years to bolster the program’s funds.

“The number of beneficiaries compared to the number of workers will increase over the next decade. There will have to be some changes with the way Social Security will work,” says Chuck Czajka, a certified Social Security claiming strategist and founder of Macro Money Concepts.

Those changes could include raising the retirement age or raising Social Security taxes.

“One potential solution is to raise the retirement age to age 70. Boomers are working longer, which has helped Social Security funds from being depleted,” Czajka says. “Adjustments will have to be made, like increasing the taxes or raising the retirement age. I believe these changes can shore up Social Security for future generations.”

Job Cut and Retirement Age Concerns

Plenty of people are nervous about the changes to Social Security that the Trump administration may be proposing, including slashing jobs at Social Security.

“With Trump and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) making swift cuts to the program and decreasing the workforce, beneficiaries will begin to have a delayed retirement process and not get the customer service they need,” says Colin Ruggiero, co-founder of DisabilityGuidance.org. “The Social Security Administration (SSA) is already overwhelmed as it is, so processing claims with a reduced workforce could be catastrophic. If there is a delay in benefits for those who collect them, millions will be affected financially. There are over one million disability claims that have yet to be processed, and beneficiaries are racking up debt to make ends meet.”

Ruggiero isn’t alone in his concerns. About 51% of surveyed adults are worried that the Trump administration could make changes to Social Security that would negatively affect them, and 60% of adults believe the Trump administration will attempt to raise the retirement age for Social Security, according to Taylor Shuman, an editor at SeniorLiving.org.

But Czajka doesn’t see the potential changes as negatives for Social Security.

“The Trump administration’s recent moves could actually benefit the Social Security trust fund,” Czajka says. “Social Security will be made more efficient.”

The Bottom Line

To meet the growing demands of the baby boomer generation, a change will have to be made to Social Security, whether it is lifting the retirement age to 70 or raising Social Security taxes. So while baby boomers haven’t drained Social Security completely, the number of baby boomers collecting Social Security is a challenge.

Whether changes are made during the Trump administration or a future administration remains to be seen. In the meantime, Social Security will continue to provide a vital financial lifeline to millions of Americans.

After a divorce, child support payments are an important means of financial support. Understanding how child support works and how it is calculated is essential to both parents.

“Child support is financial assistance that one parent provides to the other to help cover the costs of raising a child after a divorce or separation,” says Matthew Dolan, founding partner at Dolan Divorce Lawyers. “How child support is calculated differs from state to state; however, it generally considers factors such as the terms of the parenting plan, the income of the parents, the number of minor children, child care costs that either party may incur, as well as medical expenses associated with the children.”

What is a key concept about child support that is important to understand?

“You generally need to understand that the child support amount depends (on) which parent has primary physical custody of the child, along with the income and expenses of each parent,” Dolan says.

Key Child Support Terms

What child support terms are important to know?

Lucia Ramirez Levias, partner at DuBois Levias Law Group, offers these four key definitions:

• Child support order: A legal document issued by the court that outlines the financial responsibilities of each parent
• Mutual agreement: The ideal scenario where both parents agree on child support terms before presenting them to the court
• Mediation: A process where a neutral third party helps parents negotiate child support terms, often reducing legal costs and conflict
• Court determination: If parents cannot agree, a judge will decide on child support terms based on financial documents and legal guidelines.

Lewis Landerholm, founding partner of Pacific Cascade Legal, says divorcing parents also need to understand the difference between obligor and obligee and gross income and net income.

“The obligor is the parent who is ordered to pay the child support, while the obligee is the parent who receives child support,” Landerholm explains. “It’s also important to understand the difference between gross income and net income. Gross income is a person’s total income, before taxes and deductions, and is a key factor in calculating child support. Net income is your take-home pay—the amount of income after taxes and deductions.”

What If You Don’t Pay Child Support?

What happens if you are late or skip child support payments?

“Late or skipped child support payments can have serious consequences,” says Marina Shepelsky, managing partner at Shepelsky Law Group. “These may include wage garnishment, interception of tax refunds, suspension of driver’s or professional licenses, and even jail time. It’s important to stay current with payments to avoid these penalties.”

When Will Child Support Payments Finish?

How long do child support payments continue?

“Child support payments typically continue until the child reaches the age of 18 or graduates from high school, whichever is later. In some cases, payments may continue if the child has special needs or if the parents agree to extend support for college expenses,” Shepelsky says.

Divorce is a challenging time for all families. Establishing child support payments is just one of the key factors in a divorce.

“If you’re going through a divorce proceeding, remember: Be patient. Keep your eye on the prize,” Shepelsky says. “Some divorces take years to complete! There may be a lot of issues to resolve, from custody, parenting plan, and visitations to the complex financial issues of child support. Find a solution that sets your children up safely and securely, including their finances and emotional well-being.”

The Bottom Line

Divorce is a difficult time, and child support payments are important financial components. With child support payments, one parent pays financial assistance to the other parent for the upbringing of a child. Child support is based on a number of factors, including both parents’ gross incomes, the costs of raising a child, and a child’s medical expenses.

Child support payments last until the child turns 18 or graduates from high school. Some parents choose to extend child support payments to help meet college expenses. Having a special needs child is another reason why parents may choose to extend child support payments.

March employment data is on tap this week, but investors and other market watchers may be watching other events coming out of Washington even more closely.

A slew of new trade policies could be outlined on Wednesday, while some of President Donald Trump’s previously outlined tariffs are set to take effect early Thursday morning. As the president’s plans have evolved in recent weeks, markets have been roiled. An update to the U.S. trade deficit is also expected Thursday, and investors will be watching factory orders data and manufacturing and services sector survey updates during the week to look for impacts from U.S. tariff policies amid continued market volatility. 

Market watchers also will be following the corporate earnings calendar, which includes food sellers Conagra Brands (CAG)  and Lamb Weston (LW), clothing retailers Guess (GES) and Calvin Klein parent PVH Corp. (PVH), and furniture store RH (RH). 

Monday, March 31

• Chicago Business Barometer (March)
• Loar Holdings (LOAR) and PVH Corp. are scheduled to report earnings

Tuesday, April 1

• S&P manufacturing PMI (March)
• Construction spending (February)
• ISM manufacturing PMI (March)
• Job openings (February)
• Ncino (NCNO) is scheduled to report earnings

Wednesday, April 2

• ADP employment (March)
• Factory orders (February)
• RH, UniFirst (UNF), and BlackBerry (BB) are scheduled to report earnings

Thursday, April 3

• Initial jobless claims (Week ending March 29)
• U.S. trade deficit (February)
• S&P U.S. Services PMI (March)
• ISM Services PMI (March)
• Conagra Brands, Acuity (AYI), Lamb Weston, and Guess are scheduled to report earnings

Friday, April 4

• U.S. employment report (March)
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak in Arlington, Virginia

Spotlight on March Employment Numbers, U.S. Trade Policy and Data

The latest employment data for March, expected trade news, and manufacturing and services sector data are in focus this week as investors continue to eye the impact that U.S. tariffs may have. 

Investors will be watching Friday’s scheduled jobs report amid continued strength in the labor market, which the Federal Reserve cited when it decided not to lower interest rates at its March meeting.  Job growth in February came in short of expectations, and unemployment ticked slightly higher to 4.1%, but last month showed that momentum continued in the labor market despite the headwinds of high interest rates. 

Job openings data, expected on Tuesday, the ADP private-sector hiring report, scheduled for Wednesday, and Thursday’s calendar item of weekly initial jobless claims are other employment-based economic indicators that market participants will be following this week.

Wednesday will be a big day for trade policy as President Trump is expected to unveil his plan for reciprocal tariffs and provide more details on other policies. Some previously outlined tariffs are set to take effect early Thursday morning. You can keep track of all of the tariff proposals and implementation here.

An update to the U.S. trade deficit comes amid market tensions over Trump’s tariff policies, which threaten to add costs and invite retaliatory taxes in response. Recent trade balance data showed that the U.S. trade gap with its trading partners was growing ahead of expected import taxes. 

Factory orders data on Wednesday follows last week’s report that durable goods orders were on the rise. Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey data scheduled to be released this week will show whether the struggling manufacturing sector is picking up in light of Trump’s proposed tariffs. 

Clothing, Food, Furniture Sellers’ Earnings Reports Come as Investors Watch Consumer Health

With consumer confidence wavering, scheduled earnings reports from retail and food companies will likely provide investors with some insight into the public’s appetite for spending and the impact of potential U.S. tariffs. 

Investors will be looking for consumer spending trends in the scheduled reports on Monday from clothing maker PVH Corp., whose brands include Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger, and from Guess on Thursday. 

The fourth-quarter reports come as retailers had another strong holiday season in 2024 but have begun tempering their outlooks for 2025 amid tariff threats and softening consumer spending. PVH is also contending with potential trade restrictions with China. 

Food sales are also in focus this week, with frozen dinner maker Conagra Brands and potato seller Lamb Weston both scheduled to report on Thursday. 

Conagra, whose products include Duncan Hines mixes, Healthy Choice prepared meals, and Birds Eye frozen vegetables, recently warned investors that its sales could be lower due to difficulties sourcing enough chicken and frozen produce. 

Lamb Weston’s report comes as activist investor Jana Partners seeks changes at the company, which reported surprising losses, a lowered outlook, and a change in leadership in its prior quarterly update.

Furniture retailer RH, formerly known as Restoration Hardware, is scheduled to report Wednesday after it raised its full-year outlook and swung to a profit last quarter, despite contending with a weak housing market. 

Shares in CoreWeave (CRWV), a cloud computing company backed by Nvidia (NVDA), ended their market debut flat following a $1.5 billion initial public offering that priced below its expected range.

Shares of CoreWeave opened at $39 Friday. It ended the day at $40, its IPO price, trading as high as almost $42 and as low as around $37.50.

The company’s IPO pricing lagged the expected range of $47 to $55 per share. CoreWeave, which makes money by providing its clients with access to data centers, had also cut the deal’s size, selling 37.5 million shares, fewer than the 49 million previously anticipated. 

Data centers are used to develop artificial intelligence models. The company, which relies on Microsoft (MSFT) for a large portion of its sales, also depends on Nvidia chips for its business.

The IPO was the largest by a tech firm in the U.S. since the $5.2 billion offering by chip designer Arm Holdings (ARM)  in September 2023, according to Dealogic, and the largest in the U.S. since the $1.75 billion listing by LNG exporter Venture Global in January. 

CoreWeave was founded in 2017 as a crypto miner before pivoting to selling cloud infrastructure. 

This article has been updated since it was first published to reflect fresh trading data.

The economy’s trajectory largely depends on how President Donald Trump’s tariff-raising spree turns out, according to Federal Reserve officials who made public remarks this week. 

In various public appearances, a half-dozen Federal Reserve policymakers said they were keeping a close eye on Trump’s trade policies. Several predicted the president’s tariffs would stoke inflation, slow down the economy, or both. That would complicate the Fed’s job, a dual mandate to keep both of those forces at bay using monetary policy.

Fed officials have joined many other economists in predicting that Trump’s tariffs, intended to protect American businesses from foreign competition, would push up the cost of living and hammer household budgets. Trump announced a 25% tariff on imported cars this week and is planning another round of tariffs against numerous foreign countries on April 2.

“It looks inevitable that tariffs are going to increase inflation in the near term,” Susan Collins, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, said Thursday at a fireside chat. “My kind of modal outlook would be that that could be short-lived with a continuation of some disinflation, but further in the future than I might have expected before. But there are risks around that, and depending on how things unfold, it may be more persistent and a larger increase.”

What Will the Fed Do With the Uncertainty?

The Fed typically has one major way to combat inflation: keeping its benchmark interest rate, the federal funds rate, high in order to push up rates on all kinds of loans and slow down economic activity.

Yet, financial markets are projecting the Fed will cut its benchmark interest rate three times this year to combat the lingering remnants of the post-pandemic surge of inflation. That’s according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, which forecasts rate movements based on fed funds futures trading data.

Forecasters are betting the Fed will be forced to cut rates later this year because of its other major mandate, which is to prevent a severe rise in unemployment. A slowdown in consumer spending could hurt the job market, a risk that Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari alluded to when speaking at an event in Detroit Wednesday. He commented on the plummeting levels of consumer confidence shown by recent surveys.

“It’s conceivable that the hit to confidence could be a bigger effect than the tariffs themselves,” he said.

Raphael Bostic, president of the Atlanta Fed, said he was keeping an eye on both risks in an interview on Bloomberg TV Monday. He said he expects inflation to remain stubborn this year and forecasts the Fed would only cut interest rates once. More tariffs from Trump could push him toward delaying rate cuts more, while a decline in consumer confidence or a rise in unemployment could bring about rate cuts sooner, he said.

Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, speaking to the Hispanic Chamber of Commerce in Washington on Tuesday, noted that Trump’s trade policies were raising consumers’ inflation expectations.

“I am paying close attention to the acceleration of price increases and higher inflation expectations, especially given the recent bout of inflation in the past few years,” she said in prepared remarks.

Will Tariff-Related Inflation Be Temporary?

In theory, a tariff could be a one-time increase in prices and not necessarily increase inflation, which is, by definition, sustained price increases over time. In that case, the Fed could be safe ignoring it.

However, a jump in prices could affect individuals and businesses psychologically, and lead them to make decisions that push up inflation in the long term. Alberto Musalem, president of the St. Louis Fed, said he was concerned about that, speaking at a monetary policy event in Kentucky.

“I would be wary of assuming that the impact of tariff increases on inflation will be entirely temporary or that a full ‘look-through’ strategy will necessarily be appropriate,” he said, according to prepared remarks.  

The multitude of uncertainties and risks makes predicting what the economy will do nearly impossible, Tom Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, said in a speech Thursday at Washington and Lee University. He compared the task of setting monetary policy under the current conditions to driving a car through the fog.

“With all this change, a dense fog has fallen,” he said, according to prepared remarks. “It’s not an everyday, ‘forecasting is hard’ type of fog. It’s a ‘zero visibility, pull over and turn on your hazards’ type of fog.”

Barkin said the Fed was unlikely to change interest rates until the fog began to lift.

Major U.S. equities indexes tumbled after Friday’s inflation report came in hot, and consumer sentiment weakened significantly.

The S&P 500 lost 2.0% in the week’s final trading session. The Dow closed 1.7% lower, while the Nasdaq plunged 2.7%. All three key market gauges ended the full week in negative territory as the sign of persistent inflation and consumer pessimism exacerbated concerns about escalating tariffs and the trajectory of the economy.

Lululemon Athletica (LULU) shares suffered the heaviest losses of any S&P 500 stock, plummeting 14.2% after the maker of yoga pants and other workout attire released its quarterly results. Although Lululemon topped sales and profit estimates for its fiscal fourth quarter, the apparel company issued lower-than-expected guidance for the current quarter and full year. Executives cited a downturn in traffic as customers limit spending in the uncertain economic environment. JPMorgan analysts cut their price target on the stock, noting that tariffs and currency exchange effects could weigh on profit margins.

Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) shares sank 5.8% following a report in The New York Times about CEO David Zaslav’s struggles to revitalize the entertainment giant’s film studio, noting that ticket sales for its movies remain 40% below 2019 levels. The entertainment giant also announced a reorganization of its streaming content acquisition teams as it aims to align its strategy for its two streaming services, Max and Discovery+, across regions.

Shares of Dollar Tree (DLTR) slipped 5.5%, giving back a portion of the strong gains posted since the discount retailer announced earlier this week that it would sell its Family Dollar brand for $1 billion. Although analysts indicated that Dollar Tree is in a good position to attract value-conscious consumers and could see an earnings boost following its separation from Family Dollar, they pointed to potential tariff-related headwinds.

W.R. Berkley (WRB) shares surged 7.5%, notching the top performance in the S&P 500 and reaching a record high after the insurance firm announced that Japan’s Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance (MSI) would acquire a 15% stake in the company. According to a statement, MSI will purchase shares on the open market and from other third parties as it accumulates its position. The news release indicated that the agreement will not affect the firm’s day-to-day operations.

Shares of Welltower (WELL), a real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on medical facilities and other health care infrastructure, added 2.3% after credit rating agency S&P Global upgraded its issuer rating. Welltower has improved its balance sheet and is expected to see additional improvement in its credit metrics over the next two years.

American Water Works (AWK), the largest regulated water and wastewater utility in the U.S., announced a plan to invest around $40 billion in its national infrastructure over the coming decade. Shares of the company advanced 2.2% on Friday.

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There was bone marrow. There was duck confit. Now beef tallow is the cooking medium of the moment. 

Tallow—basically, beef fat cooked down to solid form—is coming up in food conversations across the country these days. It was a hot topic at a restaurant convention in New York City earlier this week, and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. recently scarfed down fries cooked in the fat at a Steak ‘n Shake in Florida.

Fans laud its flavor and tout health benefits, arguing for its superiority to seed oils like canola and vegetable oil. The ingredient is showing up on a growing number of restaurant menus, in packages of chips and frozen fries, and even in beauty products. 

“I hear about it all the time,” said Brian Goodman, who sells meats to restaurants for New Jersey-based distributor Marx Foodservice, which specializes in antibiotic-free, pasture-raised beef from New Zealand. “I have four people looking for it as we speak.”

Americans’ moves toward tallow may be a matter of palate preferences, ideological leanings—Kennedy, a Trump appointee, has boosted the slogan “Make America Healthy Again”—or efforts to eat healthier. 

Diners’ motivations aside, it seems to be catching on in restaurants. Mentions on menus rose more than 40% from late 2023 to late 2024, according to Technomic, a food service insights firm. Steak ‘n Shake said this spring that it was moving away from seed oils and cooking fries, onion rings and chicken tenders in tallow instead.

Kennedy said a number of restaurants, including Popeyes, Outback Steakhouse and Buffalo Wild Wings, have or are in the process of transitioning away from seed oil while dining at Steak ‘n Shake on Fox News. (All three restaurants say in allergen guides that beef tallow or shortening may be used to prepare some dishes.)

“We want to do everything that we can to incentivize these companies to be transparent, to switch over from ultraprocessed food,” Kennedy said on Fox News earlier this month in Florida.

It’s far from a staple. The portion of tallow produced for human consumption each year has grown from about 16% to 17% over the past decade, according to the North American Renderers Association, a trade group. Datassential, a food service insights firm, expects the ingredient to land on 8% of menus in the next four years, though it’s currently on less than 1%.

Both tallow and seed oils are processed foods, according to nutritionists. Research shows that animal fats have more saturated fatty acids–which are known to increase cholesterol and the risk of developing heart disease, according to Sander Kersten, director of Cornell University’s Division of Nutritional Sciences–than seed oils.

Tallow’s adherents see it as less processed than seed oils, and say it contains fat-soluble vitamins and nutrients, such as choline and conjugated linoleic acid, that curb hunger and improve metabolism. 

NARA members have noticed an uptick in demand for cooking-grade tallow. Food distributors say they’re trying to accommodate growing demand. 

Maximum Quality Foods, a New Jersey-based distributor, is searching for a way to provide the product for halal kitchens, owner Gary Roccaro said. Goodman said Marx Foodservice wants to start a tallow line. The current craze reminds him of a period roughly 15 years ago when duck fat became trendy. (Animal fats can have higher smoke points than seed oils, which helps prevent burning, and impart a distinct taste, he said.)

Beef tallow can be less expensive than duck fat, Goodman said. Still, the product can get pricey, with shops offering tallow made from grass-fed, organic cattle for as much as $30 per pound on Etsy.  A five-ounce pack of tallow-fried chips can sell from about $6.50 to as much as $15 online.

 “Everybody was taking duck fat and cooking potatoes in it,” Goodman said. “With beef tallow it’s the same thing. But duck fat is now $44 for three pounds—and tallow is half the price.”

Restaurant vendors also report more questions about tallow. Customers used to ask whether Frylow, a ceramic device placed in deep fryers to extend oil life, works with beef tallow once every couple of years, CEO Bradley Mart said at a trade show this week. (It does, he said.) That changed about six months ago.

“Here at the show, we’re getting it twice a day, three times a day,” Mart said at the Javits Center in Manhattan.