Monthly Dividend Stock In Focus: Realty Income


Updated on March 29th, 2025 by Nathan Parsh

Investors interested in owning stocks for income can easily be drawn to Real Estate Investment Trusts, or REITs.

These stocks offer investors the chance to own a piece of a trust that leases out properties and essentially passes all of its earnings back to shareholders as dividends.

Realty Income (O) has a 5.7% dividend yield and an extraordinary dividend history. It also pays its dividends monthly instead of quarterly.

There are ~75 companies that pay monthly dividends. You can download our full Excel spreadsheet of all monthly dividend stocks along with metrics that matter like dividend yield and payout ratio) by clicking on the link below:

 

This article will discuss Realty’s business model, its growth prospects, and its dividend analysis in detail.

Business Overview

Realty Income is a retail-focused Real Estate Investment Trust that has earned a sterling reputation for its dividend growth history.

Part of its appeal certainly is not only in its actual payout history, but the fact that these payouts are made monthly instead of quarterly.

Indeed, Realty Income has declared nearly 660 consecutive monthly dividends, an unprecedented track record among monthly dividend stocks.

Since its initial public offering in 1994, Realty Income has increased its dividend 130 times. It is a member of the Dividend Aristocrats.

The company’s long history of dividend payments and increases is due to its high-quality business model and diversified property portfolio.

The trust employs a highly scalable business model, enabling it to grow into a massive landlord of more than 15,600 properties.

Source: Investor Presentation

It owns retail properties that are not part of a wider retail development (such as a mall) but instead are standalone properties.

This means the properties are viable for many tenants, including government, healthcare, and entertainment services.

The results of this model speak for themselves: 13.4% compound average annual total return since the 1994 listing on the New York Stock Exchange, a lower beta value (a measure of stock volatility) than the S&P 500 in the same time period, and positive adjusted funds from operations growth in 28 out of the past 29 years.

On February 24th, 2025, Realty Income reported second-quarter results. For the quarter, net income available to common stockholders was $199.6 million, or $0.23 per share. Adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) per share increased by 4.0% to $1.05 compared to the same quarter in 2023.

For the year, net income available to common stockholders was $847.9 million, or $0.98 per share. Adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) per share increased by 4.8% to $4.19.

Growth Prospects

Realty Income’s growth has been quite consistent; the trust has a long history of growing its asset base and average rent, collectively driving its FFO-per-share growth.

We expect compound annual growth of FFO-per-share of approximately 2.7% over the next five years for Realty Income.

Source: Investor Presentation

This growth will be achieved through property acquisitions and rental increases on existing properties. The company invested $1.7 billion during the fourth quarter at an initial weighted average cash yield of 7.1% and achieved a rent recapture rate of 107.4% on re-leased properties.

In 2024, the company invested $3.9 billion at an initial weighted average cash yield of 7.4% and had a rent recapture rate of 105.6% on released properties.

Realty Income expects to increase its investments in international markets moving forward. It made its first deal in the UK in 2019 and plans to do more such deals when it finds attractive targets. Since its first deal in the UK, international markets have added almost 30% to the trust’s sourcing volume.

These acquisitions and expansion overseas will help drive profits in the long run. However, they may not pay off immediately, as the issuance of new shares dilutes shareholders in the near term.

Realty Income’s properties are relatively Amazon-proof, as the REIT owns standalone properties that can be used as cinemas, fitness centers, dollar stores, and more.

Realty Income’s properties are in demand and will likely remain so. At the end of last year, the occupancy rate across the portfolio was 98.7%, and tenants generally report high rent coverage ratios.

Dividend Analysis

Realty Income’s dividend history is second to none in the world of REITs. Since the company came public in 1994, its dividend has been increased over 110 times, and the payout has increased by roughly 4% per year on average.

The dividend is also safe, considering not only this extraordinary history of boosting the payout throughout all types of economic conditions but also because the trust pays out a very reasonable 75% of adjusted FFO.

REITs are required to pay out most of their income in the form of dividends, so Realty Income’s dividend payout ratio will never be low. We see ~80% of FFO as an acceptable payout ratio for a REIT, particularly for one that is growing FFO-per-share very consistently.

That means that even if FFO-per-share were to go flat for some period of time, the dividend would still be sustainable. We expect the payout to continue rising in the mid-single digits annually, as it has for many years.

Realty Income is able to maintain this record not only because its business is fundamentally superior but also because its capital structure is conservative.

Final Thoughts

REITs are favorites among dividend investors because they pay out the vast majority of their earnings to shareholders via dividends, which generally leads to high yields.

Realty Income’s 5.7% current yield is not the highest in the REIT universe, but it is still pretty attractive, especially considering the extremely consistent dividend growth.

For income investors looking for a yield more than twice as high as the yield of the broader market and dividend safety that is not a concern, Realty Income fits the bill. Realty Income is not growing fast, but growth has been consistent.

The combination of a solid dividend yield and expected future dividend increases is attractive.

Don’t miss the resources below for more monthly dividend stock investing research.

And see the resources below for more compelling investment ideas for dividend growth stocks and/or high-yield investment securities.

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Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN) | Monthly Dividend Safety Analysis


Updated on March 31st, 2025 by Nathan Parsh

Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN) has a current dividend yield of more than 14%, which makes it extremely attractive at first glance. The S&P 500 Index, on average, offers just a 1.3% dividend yield.

Horizon has a very high dividend yield and makes its payments monthly. It is one of only 75 monthly dividend stocks.

You can download our full Excel spreadsheet of all monthly dividend stocks (along with metrics that matter, like dividend yield and payout ratio) by clicking on the link below:

 

Horizon’s yield is near the top of the list of monthly dividend stocks, a group that includes many other high-yield securities, such as REITs and other Business Development Companies.

This article will discuss Horizon’s business model and whether it is an appealing stock for income investors.

Business Overview

Horizon Technology Finance is a Business Development Company, or BDC. These are companies that make investments in privately held companies.

Horizon makes its returns via investments in companies through directly originated senior secured loans and, to a smaller extent, capital appreciation potential through warrants.

It provides debt financing to early-stage companies across three industry groups:

  • Life Science (40% of portfolio)
  • Technology (34% of portfolio)
  • Healthcare Information & Services (16% of portfolio)
  • Sustainability (10% of portfolio)

Life science companies primarily include biotechnology, medical devices, and specialty pharmaceuticals.

Technology investments are typically made in cloud computing, wireless communications, cyber security, data analytics and storage, internet, software, and more.

Healthcare information includes diagnostics, medical records, and patient management software providers.

A breakdown of Horizon’s portfolio is as follows:

Source: Investor Presentation

The portfolio is heavily weighted in the life science and technology groups, but even within those groups, industries are highly diversified.

In addition, the company’s portfolio includes a favorable mix of stable and growing companies, respectively, to provide a balance of growth and safety in its lending.

Horizon views prospective investments through a long-term lens. It invests in companies that have growth potential, strong management teams, superior technology, and/or valuable intellectual property.

Growth Prospects

In its fourth-quarter report for 2024, Horizon reported a net investment income (NII) of $10.4 million, or $0.27 per share, which was down from $16 million, or $0.45 per share, in the same period last year. The company’s investment portfolio stood at $697.9 million, with a net asset value of $336.2 million, or $8.43 per share, as of December 31st, 2024. Horizon also highlighted a 14.9% annualized portfolio yield and raised $18.8 million through its at-the-market offering program.

Horizon’s second-quarter operating results included total investment income of $23.5 million, down from $28.2 million in the prior year, primarily due to lower interest income from its debt investment portfolio. Total expenses increased slightly to $12.8 million, driven by higher interest expenses. The company’s net realized loss on investments was $3.2 million compared to a net realized loss of $1.2 million in Q4 2024. However, the quarter saw a net unrealized depreciation of $19.6 million in its investment portfolio, compared to a net unrealized depreciation on investments of $24.3 million last year.

Horizon’s portfolio consisted of 52 secured loans with a total value of $638.8 million, alongside equity and warrant investments in 109 companies valued at $59.1 million. As of the end of the year, the company had $181 million in outstanding principal balance under its $250 million senior secured debt facility, which should bolster its balance sheet and position it for portfolio growth in 2025. With four debt investments classified under its highest-risk rating, Horizon aims to focus on quality investments and maximize its net asset value moving forward.

Management reassured investors of dividend stability going forward by declaring its three forward monthly dividends at a rate of $0.11. Based on Horizon’s current portfolio composition, we forecast net investment income for 2025 at $1.32 per share.

Horizon also has a growing and enormous addressable market.

Source: Investor Presentation

Horizon sees a $31 billion addressable market against its current portfolio. This should provide a wealth of opportunities for Horizon, and it can select the best opportunities in the coming years.

Dividend Analysis

Horizon currently pays a monthly dividend of $0.11 per share. The annualized dividend payout of $1.32 represents a yield of 14%, based on Horizon’s current price. This doesn’t include special dividends, of which the company has distributed $0.05 per share in each of the last five years.

This demonstrates why BDCs are a popular investment for income investors, particularly one that has a yield as high as Horizon.

However, abnormally high dividend payouts can be reduced if the issuing company encounters financial difficulty. That said, Horizon still offers a high yield, which could be very appealing for income investors.

Net investment income for 2025 is expected to reach $1.32 per share, which equates to a payout ratio of 100%. The payout ratio has improved notably since 2020, when the payout ratio exceeded 100% of NII-per-share. This was due to the coronavirus pandemic causing a decline in the portfolio results.

If investment income declines in the future, the dividend would be in danger of a reduction. On the other hand, if the U.S. economy avoids a recession and Horizon continues to see satisfactory investment spreads, the dividend could be maintained and even grow. The last increase occurred for the first payment of 2023.

Related: 3 Reasons Why Companies Cut Their Dividends (With Examples)

The company’s competitive advantage lies in its expertise in identifying the most promising companies in risky sectors, which requires professional knowledge and experience beyond finance. So far, this perk has stood solid, as the company’s results have outperformed the rest of its peers, many of which were forced to cut their distribution due to increased market pressure.

In an optimal scenario, Horizon could continue to pay its distribution of $1.32 annually for the foreseeable future. However, any BDC has an increased risk of cutting its distribution, given that it is required to distribute essentially all of its income. Should Horizon’s financial results deteriorate, a dividend cut is possible, as in 2016.

Final Thoughts

High dividend yields are often a sign of elevated risk. In this case, there is a considerable risk that Horizon’s dividend could be reduced in the future if its investment income deteriorated, which would likely occur in a deep recession.

However, Horizon’s outlook is generally positive. It invests in technology and healthcare, two stable industries with growth potential. The company’s underwriting principles offer high yields and generally safe lending conditions, which support net investment income and, therefore, the dividend.

Horizon could be an attractive high-dividend stock for income investors thanks to its 14% dividend yield, with the acknowledgment that the dividend could be at risk in the event of a business downturn.

Don’t miss the resources below for more monthly dividend stock investing research.

And see the resources below for more compelling investment ideas for dividend growth stocks and/or high-yield investment securities.

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Monthly Dividend Stock In Focus: Fortitude Gold Corporation


Updated on March 31st, 2025 by Nathan Parsh

Monthly dividend stocks are great candidates for income-oriented investors’ portfolios. They distribute their dividends monthly and offer a smoother income stream.

In addition, many of these stocks are laser-focused on maximizing their distributions to their shareholders.

You can download our full Excel spreadsheet of all monthly dividend stocks (along with metrics that matter like dividend yields and payout ratios) by clicking on the link below:

 

In this article, we will analyze the prospects of Fortitude Gold Corporation (FTCO), a high-quality monthly dividend stock.

Business Overview

Fortitude Gold is a U.S.-based gold producer that generates ~95% of its revenue from gold and targets projects with low operating costs, high returns on capital, and wide margins.

The company targets high-grade gold open pit heap leach operations averaging one gram per tonne of gold or greater. Its property portfolio currently consists of 100% ownership in seven high-grade gold properties.

All seven properties are within an approximate 30-mile radius of one another within the prolific Walker Lane Mineral Belt. The company generated over $37 million in revenues last year, most of which were from gold.

Source: Investor Presentation

On February 25th, 2025, Fortitude Gold posted its Q4 results for the period ending December 31st, 2024. Revenue for the year was $37.3 million, 49% lower than last year.

The revenue decline was driven by a 58% drop in the number of ounces of gold sold. Silver sales volumes fell 22%, even as prices increased 18% to $27.56 per ounce.

As Fortitude Gold generates essentially all of its revenue from gold, it is obviously highly sensitive to the cycles of the price of gold. The average price of gold increased 22% year-over-year to $2,371 per ounce, down slightly from an all-time high of $2,500 per ounce.

Moving to the bottom line, the company recorded a mine gross profit of $18.3 million compared to $41.2 million in 2023 due to lower net sales.

Therefore, the company reported a net loss of $2 million versus a net income of $17 million in 2023. On a per-share basis, net loss was $0.08 compared to net income of $0.71 for the prior period.

We believe the company’s EPS power potential is about $0.60 for 2025. However, EPS in FY2024 could be lower at $0.48.

Growth Prospects

Fortitude Gold’s outlook has been clouded as it awaits regulatory agency permits to mine deeper in the Isabella Pearl deposit.

Additionally, the company is still awaiting permit approval to build its second mine, its County Line project.

Source: Investor Presentation

Therefore, FTCO stock is a high-risk, high-reward situation. On one hand, rising gold prices and improved operating processes can significantly enhance the company’s financial performance amid higher profit margins.

On the other hand, declining gold prices and rising expenses, could negatively affect profitability. Furthermore, high gold prices weren’t enough to help the company turn a profit in 2023.

On the bright side, inflation has persisted, and with the Federal Reserve unlikely to lower interest rates in the near-term, gold prices are likely to remain high.

This bodes well for the price of gold, and by extension FTCO, for the foreseeable future.

Competitive Advantages & Recession Performance

Gold producers are infamous for their cyclicality, which is caused by the wild swings in the price of gold. Fortitude Gold is inevitably vulnerable to these cycles,but it is an above-average gold producer thanks to some key characteristics.

Its properties also feature exceptionally high-ore grade and near-surface deposits, resulting in low-cost operations relative to its peers.

Additionally, the balance sheet is pristine, with $122.1 million in total assets against just $14 million in total liabilities, resulting in a strong equity value of $108.1 million.

Moreover, Fortitude Gold enjoys another key competitive advantage: namely, the exceptional grade of Isabella Pearl Mine.

As a result, Fortitude Gold is much more profitable than most of its peers at a given gold price and is one of the most resilient gold producers to price downturns.

It is also worth noting that the price of gold often rises during recessions, as the precious metal is considered a safe haven during selloffs of the stock market. This means that Fortitude Gold is likely to perform well during recessions.

Dividend Analysis

Income investors should avoid gold stocks in principle due to the high cyclicality that results from the swings of the price of gold. It is not accidental that there are no gold producers in the list of Dividend Aristocrats.

On the other hand, Fortitude Gold has some attractive features for dividend investors. It offers a monthly dividend of $0.04, corresponding to an annualized dividend yield of 9.8%. This is the highest dividend yield in the group of precious metals producers.

In addition, Fortitude Gold’s expected payout ratio for the year is 80%, which is not ideal but reasonable given the asset’s high quality.

Furthermore, the gold producer’s healthy balance sheet means that the dividend is likely to remain safe for the foreseeable future.

Conversely, investors should always be aware of commodity producers’ vulnerability to commodity cycles.

If the price of gold enters a prolonged downturn at some point in the future, Fortitude Gold’s dividend is likely to come under pressure. Gold producers need to spend significant amounts on capital expenses to replenish their reserves.

Final Thoughts

Gold producers are highly cyclical and should, therefore, be avoided by most income investors, who cannot stomach a volatile stock price and a potential dividend cut.

While Fortitude Gold is highly sensitive to the cycles of the gold price, it has some unique advantages. Its strong balance sheet makes it much easier to endure the downturns of this business.

The stock also offers the highest dividend yield in its peer group and pays its dividend monthly. Therefore, it is an appealing (albeit risky) stock for income investors who want to gain exposure to gold.

Don’t miss the resources below for more monthly dividend stock investing research.

And see the resources below for more compelling investment ideas for dividend growth stocks and/or high-yield investment securities.

Thanks for reading this article. Please send any feedback, corrections, or questions to [email protected].





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Monthly Dividend Stock In Focus: Exchange Income Corp.


Updated on March 31st, 2025 by Nathan Parsh

The industrial aerospace industry is not well-known for high dividends or even dividend growth in the U.S. and Canada. Exchange Income Corporation (EIFZF) is a unique Canadian business that acquires companies in the Aerospace, Aviation, and Manufacturing sectors.

Exchange Income’s acquisition and growth strategy have allowed the company to reward shareholders with regular dividend increases since its IPO. Combined with the high dividend yield of more than 5%, this stock should pique the interest of any income investor.

Beyond its high dividend yield, the stock is also quite unique because it pays monthly dividends instead of the traditional quarterly distribution schedule. Monthly dividend payments are highly superior for investors that need to budget around their dividend payments (such as retirees).

There are currently only 76  monthly dividend stocks. You can see the full list of monthly dividend stocks (along with important financial metrics such as dividend yields and price-to-earnings ratios) by clicking on the link below:

 

Exchange Income Corporation’s high dividend yield and monthly dividend payments are two big reasons why this company stands out to prospective investors.

This is especially true considering the average S&P 500 Index yields just 1.3% right now. By comparison, Exchange Income yields more than four times the average dividend yield of the S&P 500.

That said, proper due diligence is still required for any high-yield stock to ensure its sustainable payout. Fortunately, the dividend payout appears sustainable, making the stock attractive to income investors.

Business Overview

Exchange Income Corporation provides aerospace and aviation services, including scheduled airline and charter services, emergency medical services, after-market aircraft and engines, and pilot flight training services.

Additionally, the company is invested in manufacturing window wall systems used in skyscrapers, vessels, and other industrial purposes.

Finally, Exchange Income also owns telecom towers, which it leases to America’s and Canada’s major telecom providers. The company, which is based in Winnipeg, Canada, generates just over $1 billion in annual revenue.

The corporation has two operating segments: Aerospace & Aviation and Manufacturing.

EIF DiversifiedEIF Diversified

Source: Investor Relations

Aerospace and aviation make up the bulk of the company’s EBITDA. The company’s strategy is to grow its portfolio of diversified niche operations through acquisitions to provide shareholders with a reliable and growing dividend.

The companies acquired are in defensible niche markets, and EIC has made well over 30 acquisitions since its inception in 2004.

Acquisition candidates must have a track record of profits and strong, continued cash flow generation with committed management focused on building the business post-acquisition.

Growth Prospects

Exchange Income’s results lagged in 2020 due to the negative impacts of COVID-19 on the aviation industry. Since then, the company has not only recovered but has also achieved new top—and bottom-line records.

On February 26th, 2025, the company released its Q4 results for the period ending December 31st, 2024. Revenues for the quarter grew by 7% (in constant currency) to $481.4 million, driven by a 12% increase in Aerospace & Aviation, increased leasing activity in Aircraft Sales & Leasing, and contributions from recent acquisitions, including Duhamel and Spartan.

Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter grew 6% to $0.59, mainly due to higher margins in leasing operations and increased profitability from ISR flying activities.

For fiscal 2025, management confirmed their guidance, expecting adjusted EBITDA between C$690 million and C$730 million. This would increase 10% to 16% from the prior year. Based on this outlook, adjusted EPS could reach $2.51, excluding one-time items.

The annual dividend rate of C$2.64 equals approximately $1.82 at the current CAD/USD exchange rate.

The payout ratio was 104% in FY2024 but is expected to drop to slightly more than 70% this year, implying that the dividend is covered by earnings.

We have set our estimated 5-year compound annual growth rate of adjusted EPS to 3%, as much of the company’s post-pandemic recovery has now occurred.

We retain our dividend-per-share growth projections at around 2% during that period, slightly lower than the company’s historical (Canadian) average. The lower dividend growth rate will improve the dividend’s safety over the long term, ensuring adequate dividend coverage.

Dividend Analysis

As with many high-yield stocks, the bulk of Exchange Income’s future expected returns will come from its dividend payments. Management has been committed to increasing the dividend and rewarding shareholders, and they have done so since inception.

The cash dividend payment has increased 16 times since 2004, and it is impressive that the company was able to maintain the dividend even during the pandemic.

Source: Investor Relations

Today, the annualized dividend payout stands at C$2.64 per share annually in Canadian dollars. Of course, U.S. investors need to translate the dividend payout into U.S. dollars to calculate the current yield.

Based on prevailing exchange rates, the dividend payout is approximately $1.82 per share in U.S. dollars, representing a high dividend yield of 5.3%. Exchange Income’s dividend growth has been stable and consistent over the long term.

Using projected 2025 earnings-per-share of $2.51, the stock has a dividend payout ratio of 73%. This means underlying earnings cover the current dividend payout with a decent cushion.

We view the stock as slightly undervalued today. From a total return perspective, we see potential for nearly 10% total returns on an annual basis moving forward. This will consist of the 5.3% dividend yield, 3% annual EPS growth, and a low single-digit contribution from multiple expansions.

Final Thoughts

Exchange Income Corp’s high dividend yield and monthly dividend payments immediately appeal to income investors such as retirees.

Related: 3 Canadian Monthly Dividend Stocks With Yields Up To 6%.

This analysis suggests that the company’s dividend is safe, as measured by the non-GAAP metric of Free Cash Flow minus Maintenance Capital Expenditures.

The company appears slightly undervalued on a price-to-earnings basis. At the same time, it has a solid total return projection. As a result, Exchange Income Corporation appears to be a good stock pick for income investors and offers the potential for double-digit total returns over the next five years.

Don’t miss the resources below for more monthly dividend stock investing research.

And see the resources below for more compelling investment ideas for dividend growth stocks and/or high-yield investment securities.

Thanks for reading this article. Please send any feedback, corrections, or questions to [email protected].





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Monthly Dividend Stock In Focus: Ellington Financial


Updated on March 31st, 2025 by Nathan Parsh

Investors are often attracted to dividend-paying stocks because of the income they produce. Dividend stocks provide income even while the price of the stock can fluctuate.

Some companies pay monthly dividends, which provide more consistent cash flow for investors. Nearly 80 stocks pay a monthly dividend.

You can download our full list of monthly dividend-paying stocks (along with price-to-earnings ratios, dividend yields, and payout ratios) by clicking on the link below:

 

Ellington Financial Inc (EFC) is a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) that pays a monthly dividend. The stock has a very high dividend yield of 11.8%.

However, such high-yielding stocks can be flashing a warning sign that the underlying business is facing challenges. Stocks with extremely high yields above 10% might disappoint investors with a dividend cut later on. Those “yield traps” should be avoided.

This article will examine Ellington Financial’s business model, growth prospects, and its dividend safety.

Business Overview

Ellington Financial only transitioned into a REIT at the beginning of 2019. Before this, the trust was taxed as a partnership. It is now classified as a mortgage REIT.

Ellington Financial is a hybrid REIT, meaning that the trust is a combination of an equity REIT, which owns properties, and mortgage REITs, which invest in mortgage loans and mortgage-backed securities.

The company manages mortgage-backed securities backed by prime jumbo loans, Alt-A loans, manufactured housing loans, and subprime residential mortgage loans.

Ellington Financial has a market capitalization of about $1.2 billion. You can see a snapshot of Ellington’s investment portfolio in the image below:

Source: Investor Presentation

On February 27th, 2025, Ellington Financial reported its Q4 results for the period ending December 31st, 2024. Due to the nature of the company’s business model, Ellington doesn’t report revenue. Instead, it records only income.

For the quarter, gross interest income was $108 million, up 9.4% year over year and 6.2% quarter over quarter. Adjusted (previously referred to as “core”) EPS was $0.45, $0.18 better than Q4 2023 and five cents higher than Q3 2024.

The rise was driven by strong originations and securitization-related gains in Longbridge Financial, which the company purchased in 2022. Ellington’s book value per share fell from $13.66 to $13.52 for the quarter.

Growth Prospects

Ellington’s EPS generation has been quite inconsistent over the past decade, as rates have mainly been decreasing over that time. As a result, its per-share dividend has also mostly been falling since 2015.

However, the company has done its best to diversify its portfolio and reduce its performance variance.

Additionally, its residential mortgage investments are diversified among many different security types (Non-QM, Reverse mortgages, REOs, etc.).

Ellington has taken steps not to concentrate its risk its portfolio, which improves economic return volatility.

Source: Investor Presentation

Ellington has designed its portfolio in such a way that movements in rates over time won’t have a major impact on its overall portfolio.

The Federal Reserve has stated it is likely to decrease interest rates in the future if inflation reaches its target, which would benefit the company.

At Ellington’s current portfolio construction, a 50 basis point decline in interest rates would result in $2.2 million in equity gains (i.e., 0.14% of equity), while a 50 basis point increase in rates would result in losses of $9.7 million (-0.61% of equity).

We expect 1% annual EPS growth over the next five years for EFC.

Competitive Advantage & Recession Performance

Ellington does not possess any significant competitive advantage, but one advantage is that the balance sheet remains of high quality.

For instance, EFC’s recourse debt to equity ratio was 1.8x in Q4, stable on a sequential basis but down from 2x at the end of 2023 due to a decline in borrowings on its smaller but more highly levered Agency RMBS portfolio and a drop in its recourse borrowings related to its securitization of proprietary reverse mortgage loans.

Regarding recession performance, Ellington Financial was not a public company during the Great Recession, but its share price was decimated at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

EFC’s earnings and dividends have recovered since the pandemic ended, but both measures remain below their 2014 levels.

Dividend Analysis

Ellington Financial has a volatile dividend history with multiple reductions followed by increases. The company cut its monthly dividend from $0.15 to $0.08 in Q1 2020 due to the pandemic, but management has increased it several times since then.

In Q4 2023, EFC cut the monthly dividend from $0.15 to $0.13, which the board approved to build some equity value. The dividend has remained at the same rate since. Currently, EFC has an annual dividend payout of $1.56 per share.

This is a problematic sign for the dividend’s safety, and therefore, the company’s DPS should not be seen as safe for the time being.

With a yield approaching 12%, the stock is undoubtedly attractive for income investors, although a high level of volatility is to be expected.

Ellington’s payout ratio has averaged 85% over the last five years, though it has often been above 100% previously. Investors should be aware that the expected payout ratio for 2025 is 111%.

Since its IPO, the company has paid cumulative dividends in excess of $34/share, which is nearly three times its current share price. Therefore, it has delivered a solid income stream to its shareholders over the years.

Final Thoughts

High-yield dividend stocks must always be considered carefully, as their elevated yield is often a warning sign of fundamental deterioration.

This seems to be the case with Ellington Financial, as the company has exhibited great volatility in its dividend payments.

The trust has a diversified loan portfolio and has successfully increased its profitability over time. Ellington Financial’s dividend yield also looks safe for now, though another cut could be possible if the trust saw a slowdown in its business.

EFC has an attractive yield of 11.8%, but the stock carries an elevated level of risk.

Additional Reading

Don’t miss the resources below for more monthly dividend stock investing research.

And see the resources below for more compelling investment ideas for dividend growth stocks and/or high-yield investment securities.

Thanks for reading this article. Please send any feedback, corrections, or questions to [email protected].





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Monthly Dividend Stock In Focus: Global Water Resources


The strategy behind Global Water’s asset base makes sense; areas with population growth and relatively scarce water supplies should see ever-rising demand for water. Global Water is well-positioned to grow in such areas.

The utility has many tailwinds, including considerable growth in its recycled water deliveries, massive rate increases, and solid population growth in Phoenix.

Its regulated annual revenues have been growing consistently over the years. During the last decade, the company has grown its revenues at a 5.7% average annual rate. Water is an essential commodity, so its consumption is resilient even under the most adverse economic conditions. As a result, Global Water’s revenues should remain resilient during a potential recession, as was the case during the Great Recession.

Source: Investor relations

We expect organic growth contributions from rate increases, which amounts to another low single-digit gain annually, on average. Like other utilities, Global Water is able to pass through approved pricing increases to its customers, which is a steady, long-term tailwind to revenue.

Overall, thanks to material rate hikes and Global Water’s sustained expansion, we expect the utility to grow its earnings per share at an average annual rate of 6.0% over the next five years.

Dividend Analysis

Water stocks are prized for their stable dividends and consistent dividend growth. Global Water has paid a monthly dividend since May of 2016, with a handful of monthly raises from the initial two cents per share.

The current payout is $0.0253 per share monthly or $0.30 per share annually, and it was not affected by the worst of the coronavirus crisis.

This results in a current yield of 3.0%, which is on the lower for a utility stock. In addition, we are concerned about the dividend’s safety, as Global Water’s earnings haven’t covered the dividend in recent years.

Earnings per share for 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 came in at just $0.16, $0.24, $0.33, and $0.24, respectively, whereas the annual dividends were $0.29, $0.30, $0.30, and $0.30 in those years. In other words, Global Water paid out much higher dividends than its earnings during that period. This means the company has a significant shortfall and must fund the payout through other means, including debt and share issuances.

Another feature of Global Water is its dividend growth rate. The company has grown its dividend at a rate of 2.4% over the last five years, which is much lower than the utility sector’s 5-year median dividend growth rate of 5.0%.

We expect Global Water’s earnings per share to total $0.25 in 2025. In such a case, the payout ratio would be above 100% once again. However, thanks to its regulated business and the reliable cash flows resulting from its business model, Global Water can easily borrow funds to support its future dividend. Nevertheless, given the recent years of maintaining a payout ratio well above 100%, the dividend should not be considered entirely safe in the long run.

Final Thoughts

We think Global Water has a positive road ahead regarding earnings growth. Given the multiple sources of organic growth, the company is on a reliable revenue growth trajectory. However, rising interest expenses and maintenance costs are keeping a lid on margins, as they have for years.

With the dividend yield at 3.0%, we see the risk of owning the stock as far outweighing the reward. Despite the merits of receiving dividends on a monthly basis, we do not recommend purchasing Global Water Resources’ stock.

Don’t miss the resources below for more monthly dividend stock investing research.

And see the resources below for more compelling investment ideas for dividend growth stocks and/or high-yield investment securities.





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Goldman Sachs Projects Three US Rate Cuts in 2025, Ups Recession Probability to 35%



KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Goldman Sachs economists raised their forecast for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts to three this year and increased the probability of a U.S. recession to 35%, as President Donald Trump’s tariffs put pressure on economic growth.
  • Goldman had previously forecast two rate cuts this year.
  • Economists led by Jan Hatzius said they believe upcoming tariffs to be announced on April 2 hold a greater risk “than many market participants have previously assumed.”

Goldman Sachs economists raised their forecast for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts to three this year and increased their probability of a U.S. recession to 35%, as President Donald Trump’s tariffs put pressure on economic growth.

“We continue to believe the risk from April 2 tariffs is greater than many market participants have previously assumed,” economists led by Jan Hatzius wrote in note Sunday.

The economists said they see the Federal Reserve reducing rates in July, September and November—up from their previous projection of two cuts this year. They noted that “the downside risks to the economy from tariffs have increased the likelihood of a package of 2019-style ‘insurance’ cuts” by the Fed.

Goldman also increased its 12-month recession probability to 35% from 20%, pointing to “soft data” such as a sharp deterioration in household and business confidence and a slowing in real economic growth.

The investment bank raised its forecast for core PCE inflation this year to 3.5%, reduced its GDP growth projection to 1% on a Q4/Q4 basis and increased its outlook for 2025 U.S. unemployment to 4.5%.

Trump announced a 25% tariff on imported cars last week and is planning another round of tariffs against numerous foreign countries on April 2. The tariffs, on top of levies on steel and aluminum imports, are designed to bring manufacturing and jobs back to the U.S.



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Watch These S&P 500 Chart Levels as More Tariffs Loom



Key Takeaways

  • The S&P 500 plunged on Friday and has lost ground in five of the past six weeks amid concerns about the impact of tariffs and the outlook for the economy.
  • The index broke down below a flag pattern in Friday’s trading session, potentially paving the way for a continuation move lower.
  • Investors should monitor crucial support levels on the S&P 500’s chart around 5,445 and 5,260, while also watching key resistance levels near 5,875 and 6,090.

The S&P 500 (SPX) lost ground last week amid uncertainty about the impact of tariffs and growing concerns the economy could be headed toward a recession.

The index, which has lost ground in five of the last six weeks, could see heightened volatility this week with new tariffs expected on Wednesday, a day President Trump has referred to as “Liberation Day.”

The S&P 500 trades 9% below its record high set last month as the Trump administration’s on again, off again tariff policy has sparked concerns that inflation could reignite and economic growth could stall. The benchmark index fell 2% on Friday to close at 5,581.

Below, we take a closer look at the S&P 500’s chart and apply technical analysis to identify crucial levels worth watching out.

Flag Pattern Breakdown

After falling below the closely watched 200-day moving average, the S&P 500 formed a flag in the second half of March before breaking down below the pattern in Friday’s trading session, potentially paving the way for a continuation move lower.

It’s also worth pointing out that the relative strength index failed to climb back above the 50 threshold during the index’s recent upswing, signaling underlying weak buying momentum.

Let’s identify several crucial support and resistance levels on the S&P 500’s chart that that investors may be monitoring.

Crucial Support Levels to Monitor

Further downside this week could see the index initially decline to around 5,445. This location may provide support near the lower range of a consolidation period that formed on the chart in June last year, which closely aligns with troughs in July and September.

The bulls’ inability to defend this important technical level sets the stage for a possible drop to the 5,260 area. Those who invest in the index may seek buying opportunities in this region near last year’s prominent March peak, the May pullback trough, and the early-August swing low

Interestingly, this area also sits in the same vicinity as a projected bars pattern target that takes the index’s move lower in October 2023 following a flag pattern on the chart and overlays it from the current flag pattern.

Key Resistance Levels Worth Watching

A recovery effort could see an initial upswing to around 5,875. The index finds a confluence of resistance at this level near the downward sloping 50-day MA and a trendline that connects a range of similar price points on the chart stretching back to the October peak.

Finally, a breakout above this area may see the S&P 500 climb to the 6,090 level. Market watchers would likely scrutinize this region as it could provide resistance near multiple peaks on the chart positioned just below the index’s record high set last month.

The comments, opinions, and analyses expressed on Investopedia are for informational purposes only. Read our warranty and liability disclaimer for more info.

As of the date this article was written, the author does not own any of the above securities.



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Will Baby Boomers Drain Social Security Resources?



Social Security is an essential means of financial support for many older Americans. With so many baby boomers receiving Social Security payments, will there be enough money in the program for future generations?

Key Takeaways

  • Social Security provides financial support to retired Americans and Americans with disabilities.
  • The baby boomer generation is so large that it is putting a strain on Social Security.
  • Raising the retirement age and raising Social Security taxes are two ways to address this growing demand for benefits.
  • Some Americans are nervous about proposed changes to Social Security by the Trump administration, but supporters see the changes as making Social Security more efficient.

Changes Needed

The Social Security trust fund will be able to pay 100% of benefits until 2033 and then will only be able to pay 79% of benefits. Changes to Social Security will be needed within the next few years to bolster the program’s funds.

“The number of beneficiaries compared to the number of workers will increase over the next decade. There will have to be some changes with the way Social Security will work,” says Chuck Czajka, a certified Social Security claiming strategist and founder of Macro Money Concepts.

Those changes could include raising the retirement age or raising Social Security taxes.

“One potential solution is to raise the retirement age to age 70. Boomers are working longer, which has helped Social Security funds from being depleted,” Czajka says. “Adjustments will have to be made, like increasing the taxes or raising the retirement age. I believe these changes can shore up Social Security for future generations.”

Job Cut and Retirement Age Concerns

Plenty of people are nervous about the changes to Social Security that the Trump administration may be proposing, including slashing jobs at Social Security.

“With Trump and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) making swift cuts to the program and decreasing the workforce, beneficiaries will begin to have a delayed retirement process and not get the customer service they need,” says Colin Ruggiero, co-founder of DisabilityGuidance.org. “The Social Security Administration (SSA) is already overwhelmed as it is, so processing claims with a reduced workforce could be catastrophic. If there is a delay in benefits for those who collect them, millions will be affected financially. There are over one million disability claims that have yet to be processed, and beneficiaries are racking up debt to make ends meet.”

Ruggiero isn’t alone in his concerns. About 51% of surveyed adults are worried that the Trump administration could make changes to Social Security that would negatively affect them, and 60% of adults believe the Trump administration will attempt to raise the retirement age for Social Security, according to Taylor Shuman, an editor at SeniorLiving.org.

But Czajka doesn’t see the potential changes as negatives for Social Security.

“The Trump administration’s recent moves could actually benefit the Social Security trust fund,” Czajka says. “Social Security will be made more efficient.”

The Bottom Line

To meet the growing demands of the baby boomer generation, a change will have to be made to Social Security, whether it is lifting the retirement age to 70 or raising Social Security taxes. So while baby boomers haven’t drained Social Security completely, the number of baby boomers collecting Social Security is a challenge.

Whether changes are made during the Trump administration or a future administration remains to be seen. In the meantime, Social Security will continue to provide a vital financial lifeline to millions of Americans.



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Key Terms and Concepts You Need to Know



After a divorce, child support payments are an important means of financial support. Understanding how child support works and how it is calculated is essential to both parents.

“Child support is financial assistance that one parent provides to the other to help cover the costs of raising a child after a divorce or separation,” says Matthew Dolan, founding partner at Dolan Divorce Lawyers. “How child support is calculated differs from state to state; however, it generally considers factors such as the terms of the parenting plan, the income of the parents, the number of minor children, child care costs that either party may incur, as well as medical expenses associated with the children.”

Key Takeaways

  • Child support is money one parent pays to the other to assist with the costs of raising a child.
  • Child support lasts until the child graduates high school or reaches the age of 18.
  • Failing to pay child support has serious consequences, including wage garnishment, suspension of a driver’s license, and jail time.

What is a key concept about child support that is important to understand?

“You generally need to understand that the child support amount depends (on) which parent has primary physical custody of the child, along with the income and expenses of each parent,” Dolan says.

Key Child Support Terms

What child support terms are important to know?

Lucia Ramirez Levias, partner at DuBois Levias Law Group, offers these four key definitions:

  • Child support order: A legal document issued by the court that outlines the financial responsibilities of each parent
  • Mutual agreement: The ideal scenario where both parents agree on child support terms before presenting them to the court
  • Mediation: A process where a neutral third party helps parents negotiate child support terms, often reducing legal costs and conflict
  • Court determination: If parents cannot agree, a judge will decide on child support terms based on financial documents and legal guidelines.

Lewis Landerholm, founding partner of Pacific Cascade Legal, says divorcing parents also need to understand the difference between obligor and obligee and gross income and net income.

“The obligor is the parent who is ordered to pay the child support, while the obligee is the parent who receives child support,” Landerholm explains. “It’s also important to understand the difference between gross income and net income. Gross income is a person’s total income, before taxes and deductions, and is a key factor in calculating child support. Net income is your take-home pay—the amount of income after taxes and deductions.”

What If You Don’t Pay Child Support?

What happens if you are late or skip child support payments?

“Late or skipped child support payments can have serious consequences,” says Marina Shepelsky, managing partner at Shepelsky Law Group. “These may include wage garnishment, interception of tax refunds, suspension of driver’s or professional licenses, and even jail time. It’s important to stay current with payments to avoid these penalties.”

When Will Child Support Payments Finish?

How long do child support payments continue?

“Child support payments typically continue until the child reaches the age of 18 or graduates from high school, whichever is later. In some cases, payments may continue if the child has special needs or if the parents agree to extend support for college expenses,” Shepelsky says.

Divorce is a challenging time for all families. Establishing child support payments is just one of the key factors in a divorce.

“If you’re going through a divorce proceeding, remember: Be patient. Keep your eye on the prize,” Shepelsky says. “Some divorces take years to complete! There may be a lot of issues to resolve, from custody, parenting plan, and visitations to the complex financial issues of child support. Find a solution that sets your children up safely and securely, including their finances and emotional well-being.”

The Bottom Line

Divorce is a difficult time, and child support payments are important financial components. With child support payments, one parent pays financial assistance to the other parent for the upbringing of a child. Child support is based on a number of factors, including both parents’ gross incomes, the costs of raising a child, and a child’s medical expenses.

Child support payments last until the child turns 18 or graduates from high school. Some parents choose to extend child support payments to help meet college expenses. Having a special needs child is another reason why parents may choose to extend child support payments.



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