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President Donald Trump’s campaign of imposing tariffs on trading partners for a broad range of products is unlikely to bring back the kind of manufacturing jobs that were once the backbone of the blue-collar middle class, economists say. 

As Trump enters the next phase of his administration’s trade wars, experts are warning that his efforts to impose far-reaching import taxes are unlikely to achieve one of their stated goals: restoring manufacturing to a central role in the U.S. economy.

In the mid-20th century, the U.S. was the world’s manufacturing capital, employing more workers than any other sector. At its peak in the 1950s, a quarter of the civilian workforce was employed in manufacturing. However, since the 1980s, free trade agreements have helped many industries move overseas, while automation reduced the number of workers needed in the remaining factories. Today, only about 7% of the workforce is employed in manufacturing, a figure that’s held steady since the Great Recession.

Tariffs are aimed at encouraging businesses to relocate their factories to the United States to avoid paying the import taxes, which are usually passed along to consumers. Many economists said this approach could work for certain businesses, but it’s unlikely to bring back the days when most items in someone’s house could have a “made in the USA” label on them.

US Workers Make More Than Workers Elsewhere

The U.S. is still a major manufacturer, No. 2 in the world behind China. However, it’s more expensive to make things domestically, depending on how much labor is involved in the production process.

The typical U.S. manufacturing worker earns just over $70,000 a year, while their counterpart in China makes just over $13,000, and an Indian manufacturing worker only makes around $2,300, according to an analysis by Apollo.

That means that for many products, it could still be cheaper to make them overseas and pay a tariff than to relocate a factory to the U.S. and pay higher wages.

If some businesses decide to build factories in the U.S., they will likely be highly automated, leading to few jobs being created.

“It’s unlikely to accomplish the goal that Trump is looking for,” said James Veitch, dean of the School of Business and Management at Notre Dame de Namur University,.

Bring Back Manufacturing? It Never Left

Sometimes lost in the debate over industrial policy is that the U.S. still makes lots of stuff: it is a leader in multiple high-tech industries, including aerospace, medicine, and weapons. While the U.S. has lost jobs in manufacturing since the 1980s, its output has increased in terms of the value of the products being manufactured.

Farouk Contractor, a professor of economics at Rutgers, is among the experts who say tariffs could be part of a coordinated strategy to boost manufacturing in certain key high-tech industries such as computer chips. Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden, attempted that with the CHIPS Act legislation, which promoted the construction of semiconductor factories in the U.S.

But bringing back lower-tech manufacturing might not be possible or even desirable, Contractor said. The U.S. has lost the most jobs in industries like textiles, where many hours of hard work at sewing machines go into final products that don’t sell for very much money.

“High-end stuff, high-value stuff, can come back to the U.S., partially because the value is not in labor, but in thought,” Contractor said. “So if you have a highly automated, highly sophisticated item like computer chips, it doesn’t matter if labor cost jump from $6 to $36 an hour, because the labor content is low, and the main value and the price of the item is in thought, rather than in manual labor.”

Veitch laid out the exchange in terms of hours of labor. An American worker might work at an auto parts company and create a complex part worth $400 in one hour. A worker in Cambodia or Vietnam might work at a factory making T-shirts and create a garment that sells for $10 in that same hour.

“You’ve taken one hour of American labor, and instead of producing a t-shirt, you produce something you sold to somebody else that will bring you back 40 t-shirts,” Veitch said.

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The No. 1 Factor Impacting Bank Rates

The Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate, the federal funds rate, can be raised and lowered by the central bank to both fight inflation and manage the economy’s growth. This rate is important to everyday savers because it directly influences the interest rates that banks and credit unions pay on savings and money market accounts, as well as certificates of deposit (CDs).

In 2022-2023, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate to its highest level in two decades to fight post-pandemic inflation. That in turn raised savings and CD rates to their highest levels in 20-plus years.

Since then, bank deposit rates have come down some, as the Fed began lowering its benchmark rate in late 2024—with three cuts last fall totaling one percentage point. But the central bankers have put further rate moves on ice so far this year, leaving the best savings accounts and the leading CDs still paying very high rates in the mid-4% range.

Where Are Rates Headed? It Depends on Who You Ask.

What the Fed Is Signaling

At its mid-March meeting, the Fed rate-setting committee released its forecast for 2025 rate moves. At that time, its median prediction was that it would cut the benchmark rate by 0.50 percentage points—most likely in two quarter-point reductions—by the end of this calendar year.

The Fed won’t release another forecast like this until mid-June, but in comments made Friday, two days after President Trump’s tariff announcement, Fed Chair Jerome Powell made it clear that the Fed is still in wait-and-see mode.

“What we’ve learned is that the tariffs are higher than anticipated, higher than almost all forecasters predicted,” Powell said. “We still don’t know where that comes to rest, though, and we’re just going to have to see that through.”

He added: “It feels like we don’t need to be in a hurry. It’s not clear to me at this time what the appropriate path for monetary policy will be.”

Other Economic Players Are Mixed on Their Forecasts

At any given moment, you can look up the probabilities that interest-rate traders are pricing into the market on various rate scenarios. As shown in the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool at the time of this writing, the odds are currently 35% that we’ll see four cuts in 2025, totaling a full percentage point reduction, while traders are pricing in a 11% probability that we’ll see three cuts.

Most of the remaining probability falls into the “five or more cuts” bucket, with 38% odds on the combination of those outcomes.

The probability of three or more cuts this calendar year has grown in the past few days. The thinking is that Trump’s dramatic tariff announcement has raised the likelihood of a recession, and if that occurs, the Fed will be pushed to cut rates further and faster than it previously predicted.

On Monday, Goldman Sachs analysts raised the investment bank’s calculated odds of a recession in the next year to 45%, up from 35%, due to a “sharp tightening in financial conditions, foreign consumer boycotts, and a continued spike in policy uncertainty that is likely to depress capital spending by more than we had previously assumed.”

But not everyone agrees. Most notably, Larry Fink, CEO of investment giant BlackRock, believes it’s possible for things to go the other way. During an interview Monday at the Economic Club of New York, Fink suggested tariffs could reignite inflation and push the Fed to raise, not lower, interest rates.

“This notion that the Federal Reserve’s gonna … ease four times this year, I see zero chance of that,” Fink said, according to a Bloomberg video of the event. “I’m much more worried that we could have elevated inflation that’s gonna bring rates up much higher than they are today.”

What This Means for Savings and CD Rates

It’s impossible to know how the Fed will act in the coming months and the rest of 2025. And that means we can’t know how banks’ and credit unions’ consumer rates will be impacted. Until more clarity arrives on the Trump tariffs—namely, what the final tariff rates will be and how countries will potentially retaliate—predictions for the economic road forward will remain murky.

If you are inclined to lock funds into a CD, now is still a good time, as rates are high and you’ll be securing a guaranteed rate that can’t change—no matter what happens with tariffs and the Fed. While it’s true interest rates could hold steady for a long time, or even rise, the odds currently favor some reduction this year. As always, however, only time will tell.

How We Find the Best Savings and CD Rates

Every business day, Investopedia tracks the rate data of more than 200 banks and credit unions that offer CDs and savings accounts to customers nationwide and determines daily rankings of the top-paying accounts. To qualify for our lists, the institution must be federally insured (FDIC for banks, NCUA for credit unions), and the account’s minimum initial deposit must not exceed $25,000. It also cannot specify a maximum deposit amount that’s below $5,000.

Banks must be available in at least 40 states to qualify as nationally available. And while some credit unions require you to donate to a specific charity or association to become a member if you don’t meet other eligibility criteria (e.g., you don’t live in a certain area or work in a certain kind of job), we exclude credit unions whose donation requirement is $40 or more. For more about how we choose the best rates, read our full methodology.

President Donald Trump’s tariffs may throw a wrench in a popular corporate strategy: shift production away from China and to Southeast Asia.

Many U.S. companies have refocused supply chains to Vietnam, Thailand and other countries in the region, partly because labor costs have risen in China over the decades. They’ve also tapped into the once-hot trend of “friend-shoring,” where firms look to shift supply chains away from China and toward U.S. allies.

However, Trump plans to impose steep tariffs on the region—46% on Vietnam, 36% on Thailand, 49% on Cambodia, and 24% on Malaysia, for example. The countries have built large trade surpluses with the United States, as factories that make Nike apparel or Apple products have moved in. 

“This effectively closes off options for rerouting international trade flows, which means these countries will not only feel the full force of tariffs but there will be broader disruption to global supply chains,” Jeremy Leonard, managing director of global industry services at Oxford Economics, wrote in a note to clients.

Southeast Asian Countries Are Looking to Make a Deal—As Apparel Makers Hold Their Breath

Changes may be coming as Wednesday’s tariff deadline approaches. Cambodia has offered to cut tariffs on U.S. goods, Indonesia is offering to negotiate and Thailand is seeking to boost U.S. imports. 

Trump has said Vietnam has offered to cut its tariffs to zero. However, his trade advisor Peter Navarro later told CNBC that it “means nothing to us because it’s the nontariff cheating that matters,” citing concerns about intellectual property theft or Chinese products making their way to the U.S. through Vietnam. Bloomberg reported that a top Vietnamese official has headed to Washington, D.C., for negotiations.

The outcome of the negotiations could have a significant impact on American companies. Nike’s stock fell sharply after Trump’s tariff announcements and has failed to regain momentum. The company sources 50% of its shoes and 28% of its apparel from Vietnam, according to its most recent annual report.

Nearly 20% of U.S. apparel imports and 34% of footwear imports come from Vietnam, and Cambodia, Bangladesh and Indonesia are also major exporters, Straton wrote.

But It’s Not Just Southeast Asia That Will Be Affected

Though markets had expected punishing tariffs on China, the tough policies against Southeast Asia were a surprise, Morgan Stanley consumer retail analyst Alex Straton wrote in a note to clients last week. 

“Past efforts to diversify away from China will no longer afford much protection,” Straton wrote.

Global growth could also suffer as Trump aims to “accelerate a significant reorganization of global trade and financial flows,” wrote Alejo Czerwonko, chief investment officer for emerging markets in the Americas at UBS.

“Such a transformation won‘t occur overnight, and the transition period will undoubtedly present challenges for the global economy,” Czerwonko wrote.

Major U.S. equities indexes fell Tuesday, reversing earlier gains as investors braced for new tariffs to take effect.

After opening the session solidly in positive territory, the S&P 500 dropped later in the session to close 1.6% lower. The Dow slipped 0.8%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq tumbled 2.2%.

Shares of Albemarle (ALB), the world’s largest lithium producer, suffered the steepest daily decline of any S&P 500 stock, plunging 12.6%. Tuesday’s tumble came after analysts at UBS slashed their price target on the stock, suggesting elevated costs and potentially soft demand could hold back Albemarle’s earnings.

Solar technology firm Enphase Energy (ENPH) saw its shares plunge 11.2% amid pressure on the broader renewable energy sector as concerns about trade and global economic growth cloud the outlook for solar and other energy technologies.

Shares of intelligent power and sensor chipmaker Onsemi (ON) fell 8.9%. The move lower followed a price target cut by analysts at KeyBanc, who pointed to softness in Onsemi’s automotive end markets. The KeyBanc team pointed to a deterioration in demand from Tesla (TSLA), along with inventory reductions by other carmakers in the U.S. and Europe.

Health insurance stocks received a boost after the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services announced government payments to Medicare insurers would rise more than previously expected. Humana (HUM) shares surged 10.7%, logging the top performance in the S&P 500. Shares of Aetna operator CVS Health (CVS) gained 5.9%, with the pharmacy giant also brightening its full-year outlook and naming a new CFO.

Shares of defense contractors also pushed higher after the White House pledged to spend approximately $1 trillion on defense in fiscal 2026. Shares of aerospace and defense firms Lockheed Martin (LMT), General Dynamics (GD), and RTX (RTX) all posted gains of more than 2%.

Constellation Energy (CEG) shares advanced 2.9% on Tuesday, clawing back a portion of their losses over the past week. Along with other nuclear generators, the company has drawn attention for its opportunity to power artificial intelligence data centers. Last year, Constellation signed an agreement to provide electricity to a Microsoft (MSFT) data center by restoring a unit of the Three Mile Island nuclear facility.

Bitcoin slipped in Tuesday trading, dropping from morning levels as investors continued to evaluate Trump administration trade policy. 

The leading cryptocurrency by market cap was recently changing hands around $77,000 at its low for the day and down from levels around $80,000 seen earlier today.

Several crypto-related stocks were trading lower in afternoon action. Strategy (MSTR), the bitcoin buyer and software company formerly known as MicroStrategy, was recently off nearly 5%. Crypto exchange Coinbase Global (COIN) was down about 2%. Mara Holdings (MARA), a bitcoin miner, slid more than 4%. 

Bitcoin has generally fallen this year, taking a hit lately as investors have been wary about risk assets amid uncertainty about tariffs, stubborn inflation and economic health.

On Tuesday, stocks were recently clinging to gains though also below earlier highs. (Read Investopedia’s live coverage of today’s trading here.)

Stocks surged at midday Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumping nearly 1,000 points, as the major indexes rebounded somewhat from tariff-induced losses. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq were all up close to 2%.

Shares of health insurance operators surged after the federal government said it would pay a higher rate to Medicare insurers than previously estimated. Humana (HUM), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), and Aetna owner CVS Health (CVS) were among the top gainers in the S&P 500.

Also among the top S&P gainers were cruise operators Carnival Corp. (CCL) and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH), whose shares had declined sharply in recent days amid worries about tariffs and rising recession risks.

Chip stocks also rose following a rout sparked by President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs and China’s retaliatory measures. Shares of Nvidia (NVDA), Broadcom (AVGO), Intel (INTC), Micron Technology (MU), Lam Research (LRCX), and Applied Materials (AMAT) were all higher.

RPM International (RPM) shares fell as the DayGlo and Rust-Oleum parent missed quarterly estimates, which its CEO attributed in part to bad weather.

Lululemon Athletica (LULU) shares resumed their decline since CEO Calvin McDonald recently said, “Consumers are spending less due to increased concerns about inflation and the economy” during the retailer’s earnings call in late March. The stock has lost about one-quarter of its value since the firm’s fourth-quarter report, not helped by President Trump’s announced tariffs on Vietnam, which produces much of Lululemon’s products.

Enphase Energy (ENPH) shares fell as the microinverter-based solar and battery systems provider announced a new battery for customers in Luxembourg. The stock has lost more than half its value over the past year.

Oil and gold futures rose. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note edged higher. The U.S. dollar fell against the euro, pound, and yen. Prices for most major cryptocurrencies were mixed, with the price of Bitcoin down slightly at just over $77,900.

Shares of health insurance operators surged Tuesday after the government said it would pay a higher rate to Medicare insurers than previously estimated. 

Humana (HUM) shares jumped over 9% in recent trading and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) rose 6%. CVS (CVS), which owns Aetna, climbed about 8%. 

The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services said Monday that payments to Medicare advantage plans will increase more than 5% on average, above the 2.83% the government said it anticipated in January. That increase “should ease some of the funding pressure” the insurance companies face, UBS analysts said.

Humana could now have an “easier path” to return to hitting margin targets, UBS said. UnitedHealth, which is operating at target margins already, could gain more flexibility to drive enrollment growth, the analysts added. 

For CVS, this also comes as the Aetna parent said it now expects to meet or exceed its previous full-year earnings outlook.

Sometimes relatively good news over a long enough time makes for bad habits. In recent years, drawdowns that have been followed by comparatively quick recoveries have often rewarded those “buying the dip”—market drops from recent averages. But those favorable market conditions were never meant to last, a hard truth often crowded out by Reddit threads and headlines from less-scrupulous investing sites promising major gains ahead with not a little macho language about going in where angels fear to tread.

Historically, drawdowns don’t always just bounce back—witness the lost decade of the 2000s when the S&P 500 Index had negative returns after the dot-com bust and global financial crisis. Legendary investor Bill Gross, the “Bond King” behind $270 billion funds at PIMCO, thus has a blunt warning for those looking to scoop up supposed bargains during market tumult. “I think it’s a very dangerous period of time. It’s not necessarily a period for stockholders to reach in and try and grab a bargain, like catching a falling knife,” he told CNBC. We explain his rationale below.

Buy the Dip, Catch the Knife

As turbulence hit markets again in 2025 on the heels of the Trump administration’s announcement of sweeping tariffs, retail investors rushed in to “buy the dip,” only to see the market move from a correction (10% or more drop from a recent high) to perilously close to a bear market (20%) after pouring billions in. The highest level of retail buy-in in a decade, according to J.P. Morgan (JPM), the dip-buying in the days after the announcement was just more money chasing after bad. Meanwhile, institutional investors were betting against many of the stocks retail investors favored: small caps and big names like Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN).

The danger in trading this way, according to Gross, lies in mistaking a current downturn for a routine correction. “It’s an epic event,” Gross said about the April 2025 drawdown, though his advice is evergreen for other periods of tumult. “It’s not something where you can time quickly for a market bottom.” He compared the tariff situation to the historic 1971 end of the gold standard, meaning it could represent a fundamental shift, not a temporary setback, something some commentators with just a few years of experience don’t have the perspective to handle.

For example, following the dot-com bubble burst, even blue-chip tech stocks like Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) took 14 years to recover to their previous highs. During that era, many investors who thought they were “buying the dip” in the early stages of the decline ultimately watched their investments lose much of their value.

The psychology that makes buying the dip appealing is what makes it dangerous. Investors naturally want to feel they’re getting a bargain, but as Gross warns, you might only be buying more trouble.

What Gross Recommends Instead

Gross doesn’t suggest shunning the market altogether. “What I’ve been doing… is buying domestic companies, buying telephone companies like AT&T [Inc. (T)] and Verizon [Communications Inc. (VZ), buying tobacco stocks that yield 7% to 8%, like Altria [Group Inc. (MO)], buying domestic companies,” he said.

Gross’s focus on domestic investments with strong dividends offers a solid defensive approach during market turbulence—one that most experts suggest. Gross also reminded investors of an often-overlooked option: “My cash portfolio yields 4.3% and it doesn’t go down,” he said—a simple yet effective strategy during uncertain times.

The Bottom Line

Gross‘s warnings about buying the dip come from decades of market experience that few can match. While the temptation to snatch up seemingly discounted stocks remains strong, you would have much in common with most investors in finding it difficult to differentiate the “epic economic and market event” Gross describes or a routine correction. Whatever you do, “don’t sell in a panic,” he said, suggesting the virtue of patience at a time when it’s hard to have any.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview Tuesday that the U.S. has the upper hand over China as the trade war intensifies.

“I think it was a big mistake, this Chinese escalation, because they’re playing with a pair of twos,” Bessent said on CNBC. “…What do we lose by the Chinese raising tariffs on us? We export one-fifth to them of what they export to us, so that is a losing hand for them.”

On Tuesday, China threatened to hit back further if President Donald Trump hikes U.S. import tariffs by an additional 50%, saying it would “fight to the end.”  

“I think you are going to see some very large countries with large trade deficits come forward very quickly,” Bessent said. “If they come to the table with solid proposals, I think we can end up with some good deals.”

Bessent told Fox Business on Monday that he expected Japan to get priority in trade talks “just because they came forward very quickly,” which helped the Nikkei close 6% higher Tuesday. 

If you inherit a house with a mortgage, there is a lot to think about. Should you keep the house and take over mortgage payments? Should you sell it? Let’s look at all your options.

Hang on to the House

If you decide you want to keep the house, you’ll also have to make the mortgage payments that come with it. This is a good option if you like the home and the current mortgage payments will fit into your budget.

“Many choose this option if they decide they want to move into the home, if it has sentimental value, or if the value of the home is expected to appreciate over time,” says Adam Rosenblum, attorney at Rosenblum Law.

As soon as you decide to keep the house, you’ll want to reach out to the lender handling the mortgage and ask about taking over the home’s existing mortgage.

“Once you have been approved, continue making monthly mortgage payments and pay for taxes, insurance, and upkeep on the home,” Rosenblum says. “You will then need to work with the lender or servicer to assume the loan and transfer the home’s deed to your name. You may also be able to refinance the home if you want to lower payments or remove other heirs from the title.”

Sell the House

Deciding to sell an inherited house is another option. The money from the sale may cover the remainder of the home’s mortgage. Any money left over after that can be used however you wish. Don’t forget about taxes.

“Any excess money made from the house can be kept by the homeowner or distributed to other heirs,” Rosenblum says. “Many choose this option if they cannot afford to keep the house, but note that you may also need to pay taxes on money made from the sale.”

Before you sell an inherited home, you’ll want to assess the value of the home by getting an appraisal.

“If you choose to sell the house, you should get the property appraised to determine its market value, which can be done with the help of your lender or by contacting a licensed appraiser,” Rosenblum says. “If you decide the value of the home is worth selling it, you should then work with a licensed real estate agent to list the home.”

Rent Out the House

Keeping the house and opening the house up to a tenant is another means of covering a home’s mortgage payments and making some additional cash each month.

“If you choose to keep the home but wish to also make some extra income from it, you can rent it out to someone else, which can also cover the mortgage payments,” Rosenblum says.

Becoming a landlord may be a way to make additional money from an inherited house, but there is much to consider.

“If you choose to rent the home, you should ensure compliance with any rental restrictions in your state, prepare the home, screen tenants, draft a lease agreement, and manage the property yourself or hire a property management company,” Rosenblum says.

Stop Payments on the House

You can choose to let an inherited house go into foreclosure, but it will hurt your credit rating to do so. Think carefully about choosing this option.

“If the mortgage exceeds the home’s value, or if you no longer wish to keep the home in any capacity, foreclosure is an option,” Rosenblum says. “However, we generally do not recommend foreclosure as a good option, as it can severely damage your credit score and make obtaining future loans more difficult.”

The Bottom Line

When you inherit a house with a mortgage, you have four key options to consider:

• You can keep the house, take over its mortgage payments, and have the deed transferred into your name.
• You can sell the house, and pay off the home’s mortgage with the proceeds of the sale.
• You can keep the house and rent it out to a tenant. Ideally, the tenant’s monthly rent check would cover the home’s mortgage plus some additional cash.
• You can let the home fall into foreclosure. This option may be tempting to do if the home’s mortgage is worth more than its current value, but it will damage your credit.