Trade Experts Question Trump Team’s Method for Calculating Tariffs



Key Takeaways

  • President Donald Trump’s tariffs against trading partners announced Wednesday were billed as “reciprocal,” targeting countries that have their own trade barriers against U.S. goods.
  • However, economists and trade experts said that because of the way the White House calculated the rates, these tariffs seem to be based on trade deficits.
  • Trade experts questioned the strategy behind them since trade deficits can arise for reasons other than unfair barriers.

President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs against trading partners announced Wednesday levy import taxes on friends, foes, and uninhabited islands, leaving trade experts guessing at the strategy behind them.

Trump’s long-awaited tariffs against U.S. trading partners will impose a blanket 10% import tax on everything brought into the United States, with higher rates for certain countries.

Trump initially said the tariff rates were based on countries’ own tariffs, trade barriers and “cheating” against US products. However, the tariff rates were calculated using a formula based on the U.S. trade deficit with each country, the U.S. Trade Representative later clarified in a statement.

The formula resulted in some outcomes that baffled economists and other experts. High tariffs apply to longtime U.S. allies (a 24% rate for Japan, 20% for the European Union) and the lowest to some of its adversaries (10% for Iran and Afghanistan.)

Several economists questioned the logic of tying tariffs to trade deficits.

“As a technical economist, I can tell you there’s really no methodology there,” Mary Lovely, a professor of economics at Syracuse, said in a webcast hosted by the Brookings Institution think tank. “There’s really no basis that this is going to solve the problem …I think the word ‘reciprocal’ is deeply misleading.”

Are Trade Deficits The Problem?

The USTR said its formula “assumes that persistent trade deficits are due to a combination of tariff and non-tariff factors that prevent trade from balancing.”

A trade deficit occurs when a country imports more from a country than it exports in terms of value. The U.S. runs an overall trade deficit with the rest of the world and has different trade balances with various countries. Although Trump has characterized trade deficits as the result of the surplus country “ripping off” its trading partner, few economists see it that way.

Economists note trade deficits often exist not because of policies like tariffs or other barriers but because of the concept of comparative advantage, the fact that some products are cheaper to make in some countries than others.

For example, Canada exports aluminum to the United States because our northern neighbor has a lot of cheap hydroelectric power, which makes the energy-intensive process of aluminum smelting more economical to carry out there than elsewhere.

Muddying the waters further is the fact that the “reciprocal” tariffs even target countries that buy more products from the U.S. than they sell due to the minimum 10% rate. Australia will pay the minimum tariff despite the fact that the U.S. had a $17.9 billion trade surplus with it in 2024.

Some economists said the tariffs were a starting point for negotiations and would likely be lowered.

“The market is assuming that these tariffs make such little economic sense that they won’t hold and/or will be negotiated down,” Jim Reid, global head of macro and thematic research at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a commentary.



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Index Dives After Trump Unleashes Far-Reaching Tariffs



Key Takeaways

  • The S&P 500 plunged 4.8% on Thursday, April 3, 2025, a day after the Trump administration imposed expansive tariffs on imports from countries across the world.
  • Dell Technologies shares dropped as the tariff announcement raised concerns about increased costs. Other computer-hardware makers were hit hard, too.
  • Shares of potato provider Lamb Weston provided a bright spot on a bleak market day, moving higher after a strong earnings result.

Major U.S. equities indexes plummeted a day after President Donald Trump announced widespread “reciprocal” tariffs on US trading partners around the globe.

The dramatic adjustment of trade policy triggered updates to economic forecasts by many financial firms, with economists pointing to increased inflation and recession risks. The S&P 500 dropped 4.8% on Thursday, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 6%, marking the heaviest daily drop for the pair of market gauges since 2020. The Dow ended the tumultuous trading day down 4%.

The tariff announcement pressured shares of companies that manufacturer technological devices, which could face higher costs in their international supply chains. Dell Technologies (DELL) stock suffered the steepest drop in the S&P 500 on Thursday, plummeting 19%. Shares of fellow manufacturer HP (HPQ) dropped 15%. Other companies involved in the creation of computer hardware took a hit on Thursday: Western Digital (WDC), a manufacturer of hard disk drives and other data storage technologies, fell 18%.

Best Buy (BBY) shares dropped 18%. Citi downgraded the electronics retailer’s stock to “neutral” from “buy,” highlighting the the likelihood of pressure on same-store sales as customers reject price increases. According to Citi analysts, the existing tariff plans on imports from China could result in a 5-percentage-point sales decline for Best Buy as consumers limit discretionary spending, suggesting significant downside risk to the company’s current guidance.

Shares of Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) bucked the downward pressure on the broader markets, jumping 10% to notch the strongest gains of any S&P 500 stock. The provider of frozen french fries and other potato products reported better-than-expected sales and profits for its fiscal third quarter, highlighting progress on its efforts to improve operational efficiency despite persistent headwinds from subdued restaurant traffic. Activist investor Jana Partners, which acquired a sizable position in Lamb Weston late last year, has been pushing for changes as the company navigates a challenging environment.

Numerous stocks with defensive characteristics, including several names in the health care sector, managed to push higher despite the turbulent market environment. Shares of insurance providers Molina Healthcare (MOH), Centene (CNC), and Elevance Health (ELV) added 7.5%, 5.9%, and 5.4%, respectively.

A shift toward stocks with a better chance of withstanding a potential recession also helped boost shares of discount retailer Dollar General (DG), which advanced 4.7%. The company could be in a good position to attract cost-conscious shoppers if an economic downturn materializes and consumer sentiment continues to deteriorate.



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Aldeyra Therapeutics Stock Craters to All-Time Low on FDA Letter



Key Takeaways

  • Shares of Aldeyra Therapeutics slumped nearly 75% to a record low on Thursday.
  • The FDA told the drugmaker in a letter that its drug submitted to treat dry eye disease has not proven its effectiveness in enough trials.
  • The company said it expects to release data from an ongoing trial in the second quarter, and resubmit the drug for approval later this year.

Shares of Aldeyra Therapeutics (ALDX) plummeted nearly 75% to an all-time low Thursday morning after the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said the company’s dry eye disease drug has not proven to be effective in enough studies.

The developmental drug company said that it received a letter from the FDA responding to its new drug application (NDA) for reproxalap, a treatment for dry eye disease.

The drug has “failed to demonstrate efficacy in adequate and well controlled studies in treating ocular symptoms associated with dry eyes,” the FDA wrote, Aldeyra said. The agency told the firm that it needs to prove the drug’s effectiveness in at least one more clinical trial.

The drugmaker said it expects to announce results from an ongoing trial in the second quarter, with plans to resubmit its NDA by mid-2025 if the trial has positive results. “The review period for the potential NDA resubmission is expected to be six months,” Aldeyra said.

Shares of Aldeyra were down 74% in recent trading to $1.39 after earlier touching a record-low $1.18. The stock had been up nearly 30% over the past 12 months entering Thursday.



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Monthly Dividend Stock In Focus: Whitestone REIT


Updated on April 1st, 2025 by Nathan Parsh

Whitestone REIT (WSR) has two appealing investment characteristics:

#1: It is a REIT so it has a favorable tax structure and pays out the majority of its earnings as dividends.
Related:  List of publicly traded REITs

#2: It pays dividends monthly instead of quarterly.
Related: List of monthly dividend stocks

You can download our full Excel spreadsheet of all monthly dividend stocks (along with metrics that matter like dividend yield and payout ratio) by clicking on the link below:

 

Whitestone REIT’s trifecta of favorable tax status as a REIT, a high yield, and a monthly dividend make it appealing to individual investors.

But there’s more to the company than just these factors. Keep reading this article to learn more about Whitestone REIT.

Business Overview

Whitestone is a retail REIT that owns 55 properties with about 4.9 million square feet of gross leasable area, primarily in fast-growing U.S. markets such as Texas and Arizona. Its tenant base is very diversified,d consisting of more than 1,400 tenants with no single tenant exceeding 2.1% of annualized base rental revenue.

Source: Investor Presentation

Its strategy is to prioritize renting to strong tenants and service-oriented businesses, including grocery, restaurant, health and fitness, financial services, logistics services, education, and entertainment, etc., in neighborhoods with high disposable income. Whitestone was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Whitestone reported its fourth-quarter of 2024 results on March 3rd, 2025, during which it witnessed an occupancy rate of 94.1% versus 94.2% in Q4 2023. Revenue improved 8.8% for the quarter to $40.8 million from the same quarter of 2023. Funds from operations (“FFO”) rose 33% year-over-year to $14.7 million, while FFO per share rose by the same percentage to $0.28. Same-store net operating income (“SSNOI”) grew 5.8% to $25 million.

Also, rental rate growth was 21.9%, up slightly from 21.8% a year ago, supported by a jump in renewal leases rate growth of 19% versus 15.3% a year ago. Rental rate growth in new leases of 36.1% was down from 37.3% a year ago. There were 29 new leases and 50 renewal leases in the quarter.

For 2024, revenue grew 5.0% to $154.3 million, FFO grew 12% to $50.7 million, and FFO per share increased 11.4% to $0.98.

Whitestone expects FFO to be in the range of $1.03 to $1.07 per share in 2025.

Growth Prospects

Whitestone’s growth strategy is centered around:

  1. Investing in locations with solid population growth
  2. Acquiring properties that are mismanaged, overleveraged, or in foreclosure or receivership
  3. Enhancing value property

Since Whitestone began reporting FFO, it has seen minimal growth in its FFOPS. In fact, FFOPS has actually declined. This is not a result of decreased FFO but an outstanding increase in shares. Since 2014, Whitestone has issued more than 25 million shares, effectively doubling its share count, primarily to fund acquisitions.

Due to that share dilution, dividend growth was minimal from 2016 to 2019, and a dividend cut occurred during the pandemic. In February 2021 and 2022, the REIT declared dividend increases. While it did not declare a dividend increase in 2023, it resumed increasing the dividend in March 2024. Whitestone recently raised its dividend 9% to $0.045 in early 2025.

The REIT should be able to improve its dividend in the long run. For now, we use an estimated dividend growth rate of 6% through 2030, which would lead to a sustainable payout ratio of ~51%, which is a very reasonable figure for a REIT. Whitestone’s exposure to the high-growth Sun Belt market and investments in acquisitions, redevelopment, and development projects will drive future growth.

The continuation of SSNOI growth is a good sign, and we would like to see it stay that way. For now, we estimate an FFOPS growth rate of 6% through 2030.

Dividend & Valuation Analysis

Whitestone cut its dividend by 63% in 2020. The company is now steadily increasing its dividend, but it’s a long way off from the pre-pandemic levels.

At the end of Q4 2024, Whitestone had a debt-to-asset ratio of 61% and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.6 times. The REIT had $5.2 million in cash and cash equivalents. Moreover, its payout ratio is much more sustainable than pre-pandemic levels because of a lower dividend.

The distribution looks secure going forward. Based on our projected FFO-per-share of $1.05 for the full year, we expect Whitestone to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 51% for 2025. A dividend payout ratio of close to 50% is highly unusual for REITs and likely implies a high level of dividend safety.

With such a low payout ratio, we believe the distribution will certainly increase from its current low base over the next several years. Whitestone currently has a 3.7% yield. Additional distribution growth would only enhance investors’ yield on cost.

Final Thoughts

With a 3.7% distribution yield, positive EPS growth expectations, and monthly dividends, Whitestone offers investors an expected total annual return of ~7% over the next five years.

This is without any increase in the distribution over the next five years. We believe distribution increases are likely in the medium term because Whitestone’s payout ratio is abnormally low for a REIT.

The monthly dividends are a bonus for investors looking for income.

Don’t miss the resources below for more monthly dividend stock investing research.

And see the resources below for more compelling investment ideas for dividend growth stocks and/or high-yield investment securities.

Thanks for reading this article. Please send any feedback, corrections, or questions to [email protected].





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Monthly Dividend Stock In Focus: Cross Timbers Royalty Trust


Updated on April 2nd, 2025 by Nathan Parsh

Thanks to the diverse offerings available in the stock market, investors can buy stock in companies of all shapes and sizes. Companies with market capitalizations of $10 billion or more are considered large-cap stocks, while small-caps have market capitalizations below $2 billion.

However, even smaller companies are trading in the United States. For example, micro-caps generally have market capitalizations of $300 million or less.

Cross Timbers Royalty Trust (CRT) is a micro-cap, and a tiny one at that—its market capitalization is just $74 million. Although its market capitalization is minuscule, its dividend is quite large. Cross Timbers stock has a high dividend yield of 8.1%.

Plus, Cross Timbers pays a monthly dividend. Sure Dividend has compiled a database of 76 monthly dividend stocks (along with important financial metrics such as dividend yields and payout ratios) which you can access below:

 

Despite its high yield and monthly dividend payouts, Cross Timbers has a highly uncertain outlook. The company has a very risky business model, and its annual dividend payouts declined steadily between 2014 and 2020.

Therefore, only the most risk-tolerant investors should consider buying Cross Timbers.

Business Overview

Cross Timbers Royalty Trust was created on February 12, 1991, and it earns money from two sources. First, income is derived from a 75% net profits interest in seven oil-producing properties in Texas and Oklahoma operated by established oil companies.

In addition, income is generated from a 90% net profits interest in gas-producing properties in Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico. The primary gas-producing field is the San Juan Basin in northwestern New Mexico.

The trust was created to collect net income and then make distribution payments to unitholders based on that income. XTO Energy, a subsidiary of ExxonMobil (XOM), pays the trust’s net income on the last business day of each month.

CRT’s 75% net profits interest is reduced by production and development costs, while the 90% net profits interest is not subject to these costs. Without production and development costs, the 75% net profits interest income is usually only affected by changes in sales volumes or commodity prices.

CRT had royalty income of $12.5 million in 2022 and $12.3 million in 2023. In 2024, oil comprised 72% of total revenues while gas comprised 28% of total revenue.

On March 27th, 2025, CRT reported financial results for the fourth quarter of the fiscal year 2024.

Oil and gas volumes decreased by 15% and 32%, respectively, over the prior year. In addition, the average realized price of gas declined 34%. As a result, distributable cash flow (DCF) per unit decreased by 51%. The price of oil has fallen below the key technical support of $70 lately, as OPEC is about to begin unwinding its production cuts, but the price of gas has rallied lately due to cold weather.

After factoring in $60,253 in interest income and $158,890 in administrative expenses, distributable income for Q4 2024 was $1.32 million, or $0.2195 per unit, compared to $2.42 million, or $0.4028 per unit, in the same period in 2023. Administrative expenses increased by $129,427. Interest income fluctuations are tied to changes in net profits, expense reserves, and interest rates.

Calculation of Net Profits Income

The following is a summary of the calculation of net profits income received by the Trust:

Source: Company Report

Growth Prospects

One of the major catalysts for Cross Timbers moving forward would be higher oil and gas prices. Falling commodity prices weighed on the income derived by the trust in 2014-2020. On the other hand, thanks to the rally of oil and gas prices to 13-year highs in 2023, CRT achieved an 8-year high DCF per unit that same year. Strong commodity pricing can boost distributable income and, therefore, the share price. However, given that OPEC production cuts are about to unwind, the stock has retreated from levels near the all-time high.

CRT has very minimal operating expenses since it is a royalty trust. This means that its operating leverage is huge when revenue rises. Because of this, oil and gas prices are critical for the trust’s distributable income; hence, its growth is almost entirely dependent upon commodity prices.

The trust has generated an average distributable and distributed cash flow of $1.24/unit annually for the past 10 years, though with a noticeable decrease in the past eight years, until 2022. The distribution trend essentially parallels the trend in oil and gas prices.

Moreover, CRT estimates that the rate of natural production decline of its oil and gas properties is 6%- 8% per year. This is a significant headwind for future returns. We also expect the price of oil to deflate in the upcoming years due to the record number of renewable energy projects under development right now, as most countries are doing their best to diversify away from fossil fuels. As a result, we expect a -5% average annual decrease for distributable cash flow over the next five years.

Dividend Analysis

Since Cross Timbers is a trust, its distributions are classified as royalty income. Since the distributions are considered ordinary income, they are taxed at the individual’s marginal tax rate.

Cross Timbers’ distributions are declared 10 calendar days before the record date, the last business day of each month. The company’s distributions declined steadily between 2014 and 2020, reflecting weak commodity prices, but recovered in 2021 and 2022 thanks to a strong recovery in oil and gas prices.

In 2018, Cross Timber paid cumulative dividends of approximately $1.43 per share. However, 2019 saw distributions fall to $0.88 per share, followed by a further decline to $0.78 per share in 2020.

Fortunately, distributions partly recovered in 2021, as oil and gas prices rallied considerably off the pandemic lows. As a result, CRT offered total distributions of $1.92 per unit in 2023 for an average annual distribution yield of 10.9% in that year.

Moreover, the trust offered an 8-year high distribution per unit of $1.96 in 2022, thanks to the multi-year high oil and gas prices that prevailed throughout last year.

Cross Timbers is undoubtedly a high dividend stock. But its variable payout can swing wildly, depending almost entirely on the direction of oil and gas prices. Based on its distributions in the last 12 months, the stock currently offers an 8.1% distribution yield.

However, we note that the trust is entirely dependent upon commodity prices it has no control over. The trust continues to distribute essentially all of its income, as it has since its inception. Dividend coverage is never going to be strong given that Cross Timbers is required to distribute basically all of its income.

Future distribution growth is reliant upon higher distributable income. As a result, the trust’s distribution growth potential is essentially a bet on oil and gas prices. If commodity prices remain elevated, the trust will keep offering excessive distributions. However, we note the high cyclicality of oil and gas prices and their excessive downside risk off their current levels in the long run, especially given the secular shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources.

The bottom line for Cross Timbers’ distribution is that it is very unpredictable. While the headline yield is enticing, keep in mind that there is significant variability in any particular month’s payout, depending on commodity prices and production levels. Investors should consider the risk and volatility associated with oil and gas royalty trusts before buying Cross Timbers.

Final Thoughts

Cross Timbers gives investors a unique way to play potentially higher oil and gas prices in the future while realizing monthly income along the way. However, investors should take into account risks and unique characteristics before buying shares of a royalty trust.

Cross Timbers is a micro-cap, meaning it is more volatile and thinly-traded than larger companies. It is also a royalty trust, which carries its own risks.

Finally, Cross Timbers is not a long-term ‘sleep well at night’ dividend growth stock. Future results are dependent upon oil and gas prices and the true amount of reserves in the properties in which it is interested.

As a result, Cross Timbers is only a recommended stock for investors who accept the risks of royalty trusts and micro-caps.

Don’t miss the resources below for more monthly dividend stock investing research.

And see the resources below for more compelling investment ideas for dividend growth stocks and/or high-yield investment securities.

Thanks for reading this article. Please send any feedback, corrections, or questions to [email protected].





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Monthly Dividend Stock In Focus: AGNC Investment Corp.


Updated on March 31st, 2025 by Felix Martinez

AGNC Investment Corp (AGNC) has an extremely high dividend yield of above 15.1%. In terms of current dividend yield, AGNC is near the very top of our list of high-yield dividend stocks.

In addition, AGNC pays its dividend each month rather than quarterly or semi-annually. Monthly dividends allow investors to compound dividends even faster.

There are 76 monthly dividend stocks in our database. You can download our full Excel spreadsheet of all monthly dividend stocks (along with metrics that matter like dividend yields and payout ratios) by clicking on the link below:

 

That said, investors should also assess the sustainability of such a high dividend yield, as yields in excess of 10% are often a sign of fundamental business challenges. Double-digit dividend yields often signal that investors do not believe the dividend is sustainable and are pricing the stock in anticipation of a cut to the dividend.

This article will discuss AGNC’s business model and whether the stock appeals to income-oriented investors.

Business Overview

AGNC was founded in 2008 and is an internally managed REIT. Unlike most REITs, which own physical properties that are leased to tenants, AGNC has a different business model. It operates in a niche of the REIT market: mortgage securities.

AGNC invests in agency mortgage-backed securities. It generates income by collecting interest on its invested assets, minus borrowing costs. It also records gains or losses from its investments and hedging practices.

Agency securities have principal and interest payments guaranteed by either a government-sponsored entity or the government itself. They theoretically carry less risk than private mortgages.

Source: Investor Presentation

The trust employs significant amounts of leverage to invest in these securities, boosting its ability to generate interest income. AGNC borrows primarily on a collateralized basis through securities structured as repurchase agreements.

The trust’s goal is to build value via monthly dividends and net asset value accretion. AGNC has done well with its dividends over time, but net asset value creation has sometimes proven elusive.

Indeed, the trust has paid over $48 of total dividends per share since its IPO; the share price today is just over $9.40. That sort of track record is extraordinary and is why some investors are drawn to the stock.

In other words, the trust has distributed cash per-share to shareholders of nearly five times the stock’s current value.

AGNC reported its Q4 2024 results on January 27th, 2025. The company reported a comprehensive loss of $0.11 per share, including $0.10 net income and $(0.20) in other comprehensive loss. Net spread and dollar roll income totaled $0.37 per share. Tangible net book value fell 4.6% to $8.41, while $0.36 per dividend share was declared. The economic return on tangible equity was -0.6% for the quarter.

AGNC’s $73.3B portfolio included $65.5B in Agency MBS and $6.9B in TBA securities. Leverage remained 7.2x, with $6.1B in unencumbered cash and MBS (66% of tangible equity). The company issued $511M in stock via ATM in Q4, totaling $2.0B for 2024. Full-year economic return reached 13.2%, with $1.44 in dividends per share.

Management expects a strong 2025 as the Fed eases policy. CEO Peter Federico highlighted stable MBS spreads and attractive returns, while CFO Bernice Bell noted $0.37 per share in spread income and $6.1B in liquidity, supporting continued shareholder returns.

Growth Prospects

The major drawback to mortgage REITs is that rising interest rates negatively impact the business model. AGNC makes money by borrowing at short-term rates, lending at long-term rates, and pocketing the difference. Mortgage REITs are also highly leveraged to amplify returns.

It is common for mortgage REITs to have leverage rates of 5x or more because spreads on these securities tend to be quite tight. AGNC currently has a leverage ratio of 7.2x.

In a rising interest-rate environment, mortgage REITs typically see the value of their investments reduced. Higher rates usually cause their interest margins to contract, as the payment received is fixed in most cases, whereas borrowing costs are variable.

Interest rates surged to 23-year highs last year as central banks around the world hiked rates aggressively to reduce inflation. The trust’s book value contracted in recent quarters as a result of these moves.

Overall, the high payout ratio and the volatile nature of the business model will harm earnings-per-share growth. We also believe that dividend growth will be anemic for the foreseeable future.

On the bright side, inflation has finally moderated in most developed countries, including the U.S. As a result, the Fed just began reducing interest rates and expects to reduce them much further, from 4.75%-5.0% to 2.75%-3.0% by 2026. If inflation does not rebound, the Fed will likely execute as per its guidance.

In that case, AGNC will enjoy a strong tailwind in its business, as its borrowing costs will decrease and its interest margins will expand.

Dividend Analysis

AGNC has declared monthly dividends of $0.12 per share since April 2020. This means that AGNC has an annualized payout of $1.44 per share, which equals an extremely high current yield of 15.1% based on the current share price.

Source: Investor Presentation

High yields can be a sign of elevated risk. AGNC’s dividend does carry significant risk. AGNC has reduced its dividend several times over the past decade.

We do not see a dividend cut as an imminent risk at this point, given that the payout was fairly recently cut to account for unfavorable interest rate movements and that AGNC’s net asset value appears to have stabilized.

Management has taken the necessary steps to protect its interest income, so we don’t see another dividend cut in the near term, particularly given that the Fed’s expected interest rate reductions over the next three years will provide a tailwind to AGNC.

In fact, the payout ratio remains below 90% of earnings for the foreseeable future. If this proves correct, there will be no reason to cut the payout.

However, with any mortgage REIT, there is always a significant risk to the payout, and investors should keep that in mind, particularly given the volatile behavior of interest rates in recent years.

Final Thoughts

High-yield monthly dividend-paying stocks are extremely attractive for income investors, at least on the surface. This is particularly true in an environment of low interest rates, as alternative sources of income generally have much lower yields. AGNC pays a hefty yield of 15.1% right now, which is very high by any standard.

We believe the REIT’s high yield is safe for the foreseeable future, but given the company’s business model and interest-rate sensitivity, this is hardly a low-risk situation.

While AGNC should continue to pay a dividend yield many times higher than the S&P 500 Index average, it is not an attractive option for risk-averse income investors.

Don’t miss the resources below for more monthly dividend stock investing research.

And see the resources below for more compelling investment ideas for dividend growth stocks and/or high-yield investment securities.

Thanks for reading this article. Please send any feedback, corrections, or questions to [email protected].





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Monthly Dividend Stock In Focus: Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation


Updated on March 31st, 2025 by Felix Martinez

Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation (AMIVF) has two appealing investment characteristics:

#1: It is a high-yield stock based on its  10.1% dividend yield.
Related: List of 5%+ yielding stocks.
#2: It pays dividends monthly instead of quarterly.
Related: List of monthly dividend stocks

You can download our full Excel spreadsheet of all 76 monthly dividend stocks (along with metrics that matter, like dividend yield and payout ratio) by clicking on the link below:

 

Combining a high dividend yield and a monthly dividend could make Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation appealing to income-oriented investors. In addition, the company is the leading non-bank lender in Canada, and thus, it has a reliable business model. In this article, we will discuss Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation’s prospects.

Business Overview

Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation is a non-bank lender that provides residential and commercial mortgage services in Canada. The company offers various types of mortgage loans, such as land and development financing, construction and mezzanine financing, and commercial term and bridge financing services for residential, multi-residential, and commercial real estate properties. Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation invests in commercial and residential mortgages from customers who cannot borrow funds from traditional banking channels. To reduce its risk, the company has a diversified mortgage portfolio and does its best to maintain a disciplined underwriting policy.

A typical loan in the company’s portfolio has an interest rate of 6.99%- 12.99%, a duration of 1-2 years, and monthly mortgage payments. Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation’s mortgage portfolio currently has a weighted average interest rate of 10.93%, consisting of 88% residential and 12% commercial mortgages.

Source: Investor Presentation

The company tries to reduce operating expenses and provide stable dividends to its shareholders with minimum volatility. To this end, it maintains a high-quality mortgage portfolio characterized by a conservative underwriting policy.

Thanks to its prudent management, Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation has offered consistent returns to its shareholders over the last decade. During this period, the company’s return on equity has steadily remained 600-800 basis points above the yield of the Canadian government’s 5-year bond.

Thanks to its solid business model, Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation has proved extremely resilient throughout the coronavirus crisis. This is impressive, as the pandemic would normally be expected to affect the company’s borrowers, who cannot borrow funds from large financial institutions. The resilience of Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation to the pandemic is a testament to the strength of the company’s business model.

The company reported strong 2024 financial results, with a net income of $47.9 million and earnings per share of $1.06 (basic) and $1.05 (diluted), despite this being a 7.1% decline from 2023. The company maintained a high-quality mortgage portfolio, with 96.7% in first mortgages and an average loan-to-value ratio of 61.9%. A special dividend of $0.16 per share was declared, payable on March 19, 2025, bringing the total dividend for the year to $1.0625 per share.

Atrium reduced Stage 2 and 3 loans from $129.7 million in Q3 to $79 million in Q4 while expanding its credit facility by $25 million to $340 million and raising $28.8 million through an oversubscribed equity offering. Revenues declined 1.3% to $97.3 million, and total assets fell slightly to $864.3 million. The mortgage portfolio ended the year at $863.2 million, down from $876.7 million due to higher repayments.

With a weighted average interest rate of 9.98% and strategic shifts toward lower-risk lending, Atrium remains well-positioned for 2025. The company anticipates reduced competition from non-bank lenders and increased funding capacity to support growth. Following an OSC review, Atrium restated its 2023 cash flow statement without impacting overall financials.

Growth Prospects

Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation has performed remarkably over the last nine years. Management’s focus on minimizing operating expenses and providing stable returns to shareholders has certainly paid off.

On the other hand, the company has posted essentially flat earnings per share over the last nine years. Therefore, investors should not expect meaningful earnings growth going forward. In other words, Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation’s reliable performance comes at a price: lackluster growth prospects.

Given Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation’s rock-solid business model and lackluster performance record, we expect approximately flat earnings per share five years from now.

Dividend & Valuation Analysis

Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation is currently offering an exceptionally high dividend yield of 10.1%, many times the 1.3% yield of the S&P 500. The stock is thus an interesting candidate for income-oriented investors, but U.S. investors should be aware that the dividend they receive is affected by the prevailing exchange rate between the Canadian dollar and the USD.

Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation has an elevated payout ratio of over 100%. However, it is in a strong financial position, with its interest expense currently consuming slightly less than 25% of its total interest and dividend income. As a result, the company is not likely to cut its dividend significantly anytime soon.

It is also remarkable that Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation has maintained a solid dividend record over the last decade.

Source: Investor Presentation

Overall, shareholders should rest assured that Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation’s base dividend is safe, and the company will likely continue paying a special dividend year after year.

On the other hand, the company has hardly grown its dividend in USD over the last ten years due to the depreciation of the Canadian dollar versus the USD. Given the low single-digit growth rate of the dividend in Canadian dollars, it is prudent for U.S. investors to expect minimum dividend growth going forward.

In reference to the valuation, Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation has been trading for 10.2 times its earnings per share for the last 12 months. Given the company’s resilient business model and lackluster growth prospects, we assume a fair price-to-earnings ratio of 12.0 for the stock. Therefore, the current earnings multiple is slightly lower than our assumed fair price-to-earnings ratio. If the stock trades at its fair valuation level in five years, it will enjoy a 1.9% annualized return gain.

Taking into account the flat earnings per share, the 10.1% dividend yield, and a 1.9% annualized expansion of valuation level, Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation could offer a 12% average annual total return over the next five years. This is a good expected total return, but we recommend waiting for a lower entry point in order to enhance the margin of safety and increase the expected return from the stock.

Final Thoughts

Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation is characterized by prudent management and a defensive business model. In addition, the stock is offering an exceptionally high dividend yield of 10.1%. The company has an elevated payout ratio of 100% but a strong balance sheet and a consistent dividend record. As a result, its dividend should be considered safe, though investors should not expect meaningful dividend growth anytime soon. Overall, the stock seems undervalued right now.

Moreover, Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation is characterized by extremely low trading volume. This means that it may be hard to establish or sell a large position in this stock.

Don’t miss the resources below for more monthly dividend stock investing research.

And see the resources below for more compelling investment ideas for dividend growth stocks and/or high-yield investment securities.

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Monthly Dividend Stock In Focus: Phillips Edison & Company


Updated on April 2nd, 2025 by Nathan Parsh

Monthly dividend stocks distribute their dividends on a monthly basis, providing a smoother income stream to their shareholders.

In addition, many of these companies are shareholder-friendly, i.e., they do their best to maximize their distributions to their shareholders.

As a result, many of these stocks are great candidates for income investors’ portfolios.

You can download our full Excel spreadsheet of all monthly dividend stocks (along with metrics that matter, like dividend yields and payout ratios) by clicking on the link below:

 

In this article, we will analyze the prospects of Phillips Edison & Company (PECO), a relatively new monthly dividend stock in the public markets.

Business Overview

Phillips Edison & Company is an experienced owner and operator exclusively focused on grocery-anchored neighborhood shopping centers. It is a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) with an interest in 316 shopping centers, including 294 wholly-owned centers and 22 centers owned through three unconsolidated joint ventures. This portfolio comprises nearly 36 million square feet spread across 31 U.S. states.

Phillips Edison has a 30-year history, but it began trading publicly only in the summer of 2021. Its management owns 8% of the company, and its interests align with the shareholders.

Shopping centers are experiencing a secular decline due to the shift of consumers from brick-and-mortar shopping to online purchases, which has accelerated during the COVID-19 pandemic.

However, Phillips Edison is well-protected from this trend. It generates ~70% of its rental income from retailers that provide necessity-based goods and services and has minimal exposure to distressed retailers.

The strong foot traffic is a testament to the strength of the REIT’s business model, which also enables the trust to increase its rents on a regular basis.

Source: Investor Presentation

On February 6th, 2025, Phillips Edison & Company released its Q4 results for the period ending December 31st, 2024. For the quarter, total revenues were $173 million, 2.1% higher year over year.

Same-store NOI rose by 16.5% to $110.4 million, and new and renewal leasing spreads landed at 30.2% and 20.8%, respectively, while the occupancy rate was strong at 97.7% – all of which were encouraging.

Despite slightly higher interest and operating expenses, Nareit’s FFO for the quarter grew by 12% to $83.8 million. Nareit FFO per share was $0.61, up from $0.56 last year. For the year, Nareit FFO totaled $2.37, compared to $2.25 in 2023.

During the quarter, the company acquired five shopping centers for a total of $94.6 million.

For fiscal 2025, management expects Nareit FFO per share to be between $2.47 and $2.54. This implies a 5.9% year-over-year growth at the midpoint.

Growth Prospects

As Phillips Edison became public only recently, it has a very short performance record, and it is somewhat challenging to forecast its future growth with any degree of precision.

On the other hand, REIT has several growth drivers in place.

First, it pursues growth by raising its rent regularly. Rent hikes are included in its leases, and the trust raises its rents faster when it leases a property to a new tenant.

It also pursues growth by redeveloping its properties when the returns are attractive.

As Phillips Edison currently owns less than 300 properties, it obviously has immense growth potential, though it will have to issue plenty of new units to fund its acquisitions.

Overall, Phillips Edison has several growth drivers in place and ample room for future growth, but it is prudent to keep somewhat conservative expectations due to the trust’s short performance record.

Based on the company’s historical leasing margins, same store NOI growth, and portfolio composition, we forecast FFO/share growth of 3% through 2030.

Competitive Advantages & Recession Performance

Phillips Edison’s competitive advantage lies in its focus on retailers that provide necessity-based goods and services. This focus renders the REIT more resilient to the secular decline of shopping centers than other retail-focused REITs and more resilient to recessions than most of its peers.

On the other hand, Phillips Edison performed its IPO only a few years ago, so it has not been tested during a recession. Therefore, its defensive business model has yet to be tested.

Dividend Analysis

Phillips Edison pays its dividends monthly and currently offers a 3.3% dividend yield. The trust’s expected payout ratio is 49% for 2025. It has an investment-grade balance sheet and a BBB credit rating from S&P.

Moreover, it has well-laddered debt maturities and no material debt maturities for the next two years. Furthermore, most of its total debt has a fixed rate, which is paramount in the current environment of rising interest rates. Therefore, the dividend should be considered safe for the foreseeable future.

As a side note, while Phillips Edison has an investment-grade balance sheet, its leverage ratio (Net Debt to EBITDA) currently stands at 5.0. This is at the very upper limit of our comfort zone (5.0) and reveals the eagerness of management to invest in the aggressive expansion of the trust.

Nevertheless, we believe that a lower leverage ratio is necessary to make the REIT more resilient to unexpected downturns.

Additionally, the 3.3% dividend yield of Phillips Edison is somewhat lower than the median dividend yield of the REIT sector. However, the ~50% payout ratio of the stock is lower than the median payout ratio of the REIT sector.

This means that Phillips Edison prefers to retain a greater portion of its earnings in order to invest more aggressively in its expansion. Overall, Phillips Edison’s dividend proposition is in line with the average stock of the REIT sector.

Final Thoughts

Monthly dividend stocks are attractive because they enhance the positive effect of compounding. However, some of these stocks are highly speculative, with high payout ratios and vulnerability to recessions.

Therefore, investors should perform their due diligence carefully before investing in this group of stocks.

Phillips Edison seems much better than a typical monthly dividend stock, as it has a healthy payout ratio and a fairly resilient business model. Nevertheless, its short history and somewhat leveraged balance sheet create some uncertainty.

Overall, we have fairly low total return expectations for PECO, but we see the appeal of the stock for its yield and monthly payouts.

Don’t miss the resources below for more monthly dividend stock investing research.

And see the resources below for more compelling investment ideas for dividend growth stocks and/or high-yield investment securities.

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Monthly Dividend Stock In Focus: Apple Hospitality REIT


Updated on March 31st, 2025 by Felix Martinez

Real Estate Investment Trusts, or REITs, are a core holding for many income investors due to their high dividend yields.

The coronavirus pandemic was devastating for many REITs. It especially hit the hospitality industry hard, including REITs in that industry.

Apple Hospitality REIT Inc. (APLE) is a REIT that pays a monthly dividend. Monthly dividend stocks pay shareholders 12 dividends per year instead of the more typical quarterly payments.

We created a list of all 76 monthly dividend stocks (along with important financial metrics such as dividend yields and payout ratios). You can download the spreadsheet by clicking on the link below:

 

Apple Hospitality has a 7.9% dividend yield, which is high. The high current yield and monthly dividend payouts make APLE an appealing stock for income investors.

This article will discuss this REIT in greater detail.

Business Overview

Apple Hospitality owns one of the largest and most diverse portfolios of upscale, rooms-focused hotels in the United States.

As of February 24th, 2025, Apple Hospitality owned 220 hotels with 29,688 guest rooms in 37 states and the District of Columbia.

APLE’s hotel portfolio consists of 100 Marriott-branded hotels, 119 Hilton-branded hotels and five Hyatt-branded hotels.

Source: Investor Presentation

On February 24th, 2025, APLE reported fourth-quarter results. The company reported strong Q4 and full-year 2024 results. Q4 net income rose 43.6% to $29.8M, while full-year net income increased 20.6% to $214.1M. Adjusted EBITDAre grew 6.7% in Q4 and 6.9% for the year. RevPAR improved 4.3% in Q4 to $107.65 and 2.5% annually to $115.34.

The company paid $1.01 per share in distributions (6.5% yield) and repurchased $35M in shares. It acquired two hotels for $196M and sold seven for $71.7M. Debt remained stable at $1.48B, with a 28.5% debt-to-cap ratio. CEO Justin Knight highlighted strong travel demand. Apple Hospitality owns 221 hotels with 29,764 rooms across 86 markets.

Growth Prospects

Since it first began reporting FFO/share in its annual reports (2011), Apple Hospitality initially generated very impressive annualized FFO/share growth thanks to its growing scale (due in large part to a merger in 2015), effective and efficient business model, and strong economic tailwinds in the United States during that period.

However, this growth rate has slowed dramatically recently, largely due to the Covid-19 outbreak and an accompanying downturn in the hotel industry that was further accelerated by the rise of companies like AirBnB.

Still, we expect growth to resume in the years ahead. Specifically, we forecast 1.0% compound annual growth of FFO-per-share over the next five years.

Apple Hospitality’s growth prospects will mostly come from an increase in rents. They were also selling less-profitable properties to acquire more beneficial properties.

Other growth drivers will come from long-term cost savings. The company has an expense reduction ratio target of 0.80 – 0.90. This is accomplished by increasing the cross-utilization of managers and associates.

Scaling to renegotiate vendor contracts and optimize labor management software that is already in place can also help reduce overall costs.

Lastly, stock buybacks will boost per-share FFO growth.

More locations and market diversification should help the company continue to grow its FFO for years to come. This will also allow the company to start increasing its dividends.

Source: Investor Presentation

Dividend Analysis

The company’s dividend history is not long, as it became public in 2015. The stock pays its dividend monthly, which is attractive to many income investors. In 2016, the company increased its annualized dividend substantially by 50%, from a $0.80 rate to a $1.20 rate.

However, in the following years, the dividend stayed at that same rate until 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic forced the company to cut its dividend and freeze it to a $0.30 rate for the year.

The company resumed dividends in 2021. APLE currently pays a $0.08 monthly dividend, which equates to $0.96 per share annually.

The company’s healthy balance sheet helps support the dividend. APLE has some of the lowest debt-to-equity in the sector, plenty of liquidity, and a well-laddered debt maturity profile.

With an expected 2025 dividend payout ratio of approximately 61% in terms of FFO, we view the dividend as secure, although a steep recession would put the dividend at risk.

Apple does not have a recorded history as a public trust during a typical recession. Therefore, it is hard to judge its recession resilience, other than to compare it to hotel REITs.

Typically, during a recessionary period, hotel REITs experience significant income losses. Therefore, Apple is likely not very recession-resistant.

However, its concentration in strong brand names, excellent locations, strong balance sheet, franchising model, and emphasis on value should enable it to outperform its peers in a recession.

Final Thoughts

Apple Hospitality is one of the strongest players in the hotel sector due to its strong brand power, healthy balance sheet, and high-quality assets. The company has the potential to start increasing its dividends.

The dividend payout ratio is relatively low, and AFFO per share is expected to grow over the next five years. Overall, we think that it makes for an attractive buy right now.

Don’t miss the resources below for more monthly dividend stock investing research.

And see the resources below for more compelling investment ideas for dividend growth stocks and/or high-yield investment securities.

Thanks for reading this article. Please send any feedback, corrections, or questions to [email protected].





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Monthly Dividend Stock In Focus: Agree Realty


Updated on March 31st, 2025 by Felix Martinez

Real Estate Investment Trusts, or REITs for short, are a core holding for many income investors due to their high dividend yields.

At the same time, monthly dividend stocks are also appealing for income investors, due to their more frequent payout schedules.

Agree Realty (ADC) is a rarity among REITs, in that it pays a monthly dividend. Monthly dividend stocks pay shareholders 12 dividends per year instead of the more typical quarterly payments.

We created a list of 76 monthly dividend stocks (along with important financial metrics such as dividend yields and payout ratios). You can download the monthly dividend stocks spreadsheet by clicking on the link below:

 

Agree Realty’s dividend yield is 4.0%, more than three times the average yield of the S&P 500 Index.

Agree Realty offers a high level of dividend safety and the potential for dividend growth in the coming years. This article discusses ADC in greater detail.

Business Overview

Agree Realty is a retail Real Estate Investment Trust. Agree has developed over 40 community shopping centers throughout the Midwestern and Southeastern United States.

As of December 31, 2024, the property portfolio consisted of 2,370 properties located in 50 states and contained approximately 48.8 million square feet of gross leasable area.

At the end of the 2024 fourth quarter, Agree’s portfolio was 99.6% leased, and a weighted-average remaining lease term of approximately 7.9 years.

Just over two-thirds of annualized base rent comes from investment-grade retail tenants.

Its property portfolio is diversified and spans several industry groups, including grocery stores, home improvement retailers, auto service, and convenience stores.

Source: Investor Presentation

At the same time, Agree Realty has high-graded its portfolio by reducing its exposure to tenant groups most at risk from the current challenges, specifically the coronavirus pandemic.

For example, Agree Realty derives just 2% of its annual base rent from health clubs and fitness centers and just 1% of ABR from movie theaters. In all, Agree Realty generates two-thirds of its ABR from investment-grade tenants.

This portfolio quality is reflected in the company’s strong fundamentals. Agree Realty continues to post impressive results in a highly challenging period for many REITs, particularly those operating in the retail industry.

The company reported Q4 and full-year 2024 results, showing solid growth. In Q4, the company invested $371M in 127 properties, launched eight projects worth $45M, and increased AFFO per share by 4.7% to $1.04. It raised $651M through equity offerings and declared a $0.253 monthly dividend (up 2.4% YoY). Net income per share fell 5.7% to $0.41, while Core FFO rose 3.5% to $1.02.

For 2024, Agree Realty invested $951M in 282 properties and started 25 projects worth $115M. Net income per share grew 4.8% to $1.78, with AFFO up 4.6% to $4.14. The company issued $1.1B in forward equity, completed a $450M bond offering, and expanded its credit facility to $1.25B. Liquidity exceeded $2.0B, and its credit rating improved to BBB+. Dividends totaled $3.00 per share, up 2.8% YoY.

For 2025, the company projects AFFO per share between $4.26 and $4.30 and investments of $1.1B-$1.3B. Dispositions are expected at $10M-$50M, with expenses ranging from 5.6% to 5.9% of revenue. Monthly dividends for January and February 2025 were reaffirmed at $0.253 per share, continuing its steady shareholder returns.

Growth Prospects

Agree Realty has grown AFFO by a compound rate of 6.3% over the past ten years and by 5.9% per year over the past five years.

We expect that Agree Realty will continue to grow at a slightly slower pace of 4.0% annually for the next five years. Current growth prospects stem from the recent acquisitions announced for the year.

We see Agree Realty being able to grow AFFO through its three-pronged growth strategy revolving around acquisitions, development, and partner capital solutions.

During the fiscal year of 2024, Agree Realty invested $951 million in 282 retail net lease properties and committed over $115 million to 25 development projects.

Looking back further, it has invested over $9 billion in properties since 2010.

Source: Investor Presentation

Looking ahead, Agree Realty raised its 2025 AFFO per share guidance to $4.30 and increased its acquisition guidance to approximately $700 million.

We expect ADC to generate a 4.0% compound annual growth of FFO-per-share over the next five years.

Dividend Analysis

Prior to 2021, Agree Realty had paid a quarterly dividend like the vast majority of dividend stocks. But in 2021, the company switched to a monthly dividend schedule.

Agree Realty currently pays a monthly dividend of $0.253 per share. On an annual basis, the $3.04 dividend payout represents a 4.0% current yield.

Considering the S&P 500 Index currently yields just 1.3%, Agree Realty stock is an attractive option for income investors.

And, the company grows its dividend regularly. Agree Realty increased its dividend by approximately 5.5% per year in the past 10 years.

The dividend is also highly secure. Based on the expected AFFO of $4.30 for 2025, Agree Realty has a projected dividend payout ratio of 73% for the entire year.

Agree Realty’s payout ratio has remained highly consistent in the last decade, around the mid70s. This is a healthy payout ratio for a REIT, which must pay out the majority of its earnings to shareholders.

The company operates a healthy balance sheet with a net debt-to-equity ratio of 0.5x, well below many other REITs. Keeping a manageable level of debt is very important for REITs to keep the cost of capital down.

The company maintains investment-grade credit ratings of BBB+.

Final Thoughts

Real Estate Investment Trusts are popular for their high dividend yields, but extreme high-yielders should be avoided. Investors should not ignore REITs with somewhat lower yields, as these REITs often have superior fundamentals.

Agree Realty is an example of this; although its 4.0% yield trails many other REITs, it makes up for this with a high dividend safety and growth rate.

As a result, we view it as a solid pick for income investors, particularly those interested in dividend growth.

Don’t miss the resources below for more monthly dividend stock investing research.

And see the resources below for more compelling investment ideas for dividend growth stocks and/or high-yield investment securities.

Thanks for reading this article. Please send any feedback, corrections, or questions to [email protected].





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