Rising inflation expectations and tariff angst are threatening the path of the US economy towards a soft landing, a scenario that seemed increasingly more likely from October onwards. That was when economic momentum started gaining traction again as the labor market began outperforming expectations. The election of President Trump led to a one-off boost in confidence as small and medium sized enterprises bet on tax cuts and the cutting of red tape. Now this narrative is in danger of falling apart due to tariff confusion and lower growth.
Last week, for example, ended on a sour note as Trump and Zelenskiy clashed in the Oval Office due to multiple disagreements regarding the war in Ukraine. The joint press conference that should have followed was canceled, sending a stark signal to the rest of the world that an immediate peace deal seems out of reach. Geopolitics and tariff chatter have clearly been a net-negative factor for risk assets as of late.
To make matters worse, investors have started questioning the health of the US economy. Last week’s weaker than expected macro data and front-loading of imports before US companies are hit by tariffs lead to a drastic drop of growth expectations. The Atlanta Fed Nowcast for Q1 fell from 2.3% to 1.5%, a decline only seen during periods of significant turmoil or crises. Inflation published on Friday was in line with expectations with the PCE index rising by 0.3% m/m in January. However, personal spending fell by 0.2%, the first decline in almost two years.
The dollar rose for a third consecutive session and is currently only supported by the geopolitical uncertainty as the macro picture looks increasingly bad. Investors went from pricing in one rate cut by the Fed just days ago to now expecting three for 2025. This is reflected in Treasuries as well. The 2-year yield fell below 4% for the first time since October, matching the low of the US surprise index. This week’s labor market data will be the first large litmus test for the US economy and therefore the US dollar in some time.
Euro in the shadow of Trump
Boris Kovacevic – Global Macro Strategist
The euro is once again feeling the force that geopolitical uncertainty can have on sentiment and markets. European sentiment as of late has been improving, although at a slower than expected pace. The US macro picture seems to be deteriorating, and investors are back at pricing in three rate cuts from the Fed. At the same time is the narrative surrounding policy easing by the ECB becoming more complicated as inflation is picking up again.
However, none of this mattered for investors concerned with the spat between Trump and Zelenskiy and the falling implied probability of a peace deal being reached in the near term. The euro pushed lower for a second consecutive week and is once again trading below the $1.04 mark. Investors expecting the ECB meeting on Thursday to be a new catalyst to push the currency in either direction might be disappointed.
The 25-basis point cut is fully priced in, so it will be about the forward guidance to play the role of the market mover. However, the uncertain trade and geopolitical environment will likely mean that policy makers should remain caution and sensitive to the news flow. Today’s inflation print for the Eurozone is expected to show some deceleration in inflation pressures. The bigger catalyst for renewed selling pressure might once again come from the political or macro front. We would need a significant surprise on the US labor market report on Friday to see some price action of above $1.05 or below $1.03.
Swinging with risk sentiment
George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist
Having jumped to a more than 2-month high above $1.27 last week, GBP/USD is back flirting with the $1.26 handle following renewed geopolitical uncertainty as the hostile White House meeting between Trump and Zelensky threatens prospects of a US-brokered ceasefire with Ukraine and Russia. The risk sensitive pound slid against safe haven peers, but remains firm against the euro, with GBP/EUR closing the month above €1.21 for the first time since 2016.
The UK’s worsening net international investment position and the fact it has a persistent current account deficit leaves sterling reliant on foreign capital inflows. With this in mind, if we see a bigger drawdown in equity markets, then realistically the pound should come under pressure as well via the risk sentiment channel. However, on the trade front, Britain is way down on Trump’s list for tariffs, both because he likes the UK and because the UK-US trading relationship is much more balanced than most, with US actually having a goods trade surplus with the UK. This is why sterling is viewed as a tariff haven of sorts. Indeed, the FX options market reveals that one-week risk reversals are least bearish on sterling right now versus most of the G10.
The main upside risk for sterling this week is if President Trump reverses or delays increases to tariffs on Mexico and Canada that are scheduled for Tuesday as this would likely boost risk sentiment across the board. Moreover, if the influx of US data disappoints this week, particularly the labour market report on Friday, this could help the pound resume its recovery back above $1.27 versus the dollar.
*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
Investors are eager to spend trillions on energy transition, but too much money is piling into mature projects, while high-risk innovations struggle to attract backing.
Will there be enough money in the world to save the planet? The answer to this urgent question is not straightforward.
Big-picture prognosticators name staggering sums needed to finance a greener future—and equally daunting shortfalls in securing them. Investment in the energy transition must more than double to $4.5 trillion annually to reach internationally agreed 2030 emissions targets, according to European financier Allianz. The US-based Boston Consulting Group (BCG) estimates an $18 trillion net-zero “capital gap,” in a late 2023 report.
The outlook for 2025 appears even more challenging. US President Donald Trump has reclaimed the office, vowing to dismantle the generous green subsidies his predecessor, former President Joe Biden, had advanced through the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)—and to “drill, baby, drill” for oil and gas. High energy costs and farmer protests are eroding support for Europe’s ambitious transition agenda, while Canada is poised to roll back its precedent-setting carbon tax.
In financial markets, stubbornly high interest rates are keeping the cost of capital-intensive energy infrastructure elevated for longer. Meanwhile, a surge in data center construction, driven by AI, is supercharging electricity-demand projections—prompting a return to fossil fuel dependency. “One of these data centers can take as much power as a small city,” says Richard de los Reyes, a portfolio manager at T. Rowe Price’s New Era Fund. “There’s an increasing recognition that a lot of that will have to come from natural gas.”
Green Investing’s Mismatched Realities
The view is quite different, though, in the financial trenches, among practitioners who are raising capital and structuring deals. They worry about too much capital chasing too few green investments. “I’m still a true believer that the megatrends of decarbonization and digitalization will transform the way we live,” says Alex Leung, head of infrastructure research and strategy at UBS Asset Management. “But [these sectors] are getting to be crowded trades.”
How can both be true? The renewable energy universe is increasingly divided from a financial perspective. There is no shortage of capital, but much of it is concentrated in a few mature green technologies, while more-innovative or unproven sectors struggle to attract funding.
On one side are established, cost-effective technologies that investors can back with a reasonable expectation of a steady, decades-long payout. Solar and onshore wind power have moved into this category, as economies of scale and an equipment boom in China have driven the costs of these energy sources below fossil fuels.
On the other side are technologies that show promise but not yet profit, such as carbon capture or green hydrogen; or those with uncertain risks and high costs, like offshore wind. These projects still rely on deep-pocketed corporate backers or government support to reach commercial viability.
“Everyone wants to be part of the energy transition on paper,” says Antoine Saint Olive, global head of infrastructure and energy finance at Natixis Capital and Investment Banking in Paris. “But when you have a real deal on your desk, in many cases you are talking about new technologies.”
This mismatch—between an abundance of capital for well-established projects and an undersupply for higher-risk innovations—helps explain why trillions are still needed, even as investors complain of crowded trades.
Perhaps the most critical deals are in a border zone between proven and new technologies: in fast-developing storage systems for solar and wind power, and in adjustments to grids needed to transmit it. Renewable-generation investments will eventually hit a wall without upgraded delivery to the customer, and in some places they may have already.
As a rule of thumb, existing grids can cope until renewables reach 15% of their input, says Rebecca Fitz, a BCG partner and founding member of the firm’s Center for Energy Impact. Some parts of Europe are above 50%, creating “a bottleneck in power market design,” she says.
Europe’s patchwork of national grids and regulators poses special challenges to moving green energy from where it’s best produced—Spain and Portugal for solar, the Netherlands for wind—to where it’s needed, adds Stef Beusmans, an associate partner at Sustainable Capital Group in Amsterdam. “Different national support schemes make it harder for Europe to really fast-track deployment of clean energy,” he says.
Energy Transition Financing At A Crossroads
The enormous scope and complexity of the energy transition present both challenges and opportunities to the venerable, low-profile world of infrastructure finance, which absorbs about 4% of global capital, according to UBS. Plain vanilla deals are rare in this area. Bond underwriters and traders have rating agencies to guide them and liquid markets to distribute risk, but infrastructure investors must structure transactions individually and often hold the risk for the long haul. “Structuring and closing a deal could take up to a year,” Leung says. “Many infrastructure assets require active management after that. This isn’t just clipping a coupon.”
Green investments make the game only harder, says Marta Perez, head of the Americas infrastructure debt team at Allianz Capital Partners. “Traditional project finance models, which were designed around more-predictable long-term assets like fossil fuel power plants, need to evolve for the variable, often decentralized nature of renewable energy systems,” she explains.
Antoine Saint Olive, Natixis: Everyone wants to be part of the energy transition on paper.
Climate activists focus on a range of priorities: planting trees, insulating buildings, and more. For investors, however, the primary concern is electricity. BCG estimates that electric vehicles and other “end uses” of electricity account for 90% of the $18 trillion net-zero capital gap. “Electrified transport” and renewable-energy generation sucked up more than $600 billion each globally in 2023, according to Allianz. Power grid upgrades ran a distant third at $310 billion, and batteries and other energy-related components fourth at $135 billion.
The rush to build AI data centers—massive energy consumers—will drive those numbers only higher. UBS projects US electricity generation to grow by a staggering 20% annually from 2023-2026. The AI craze will be “slightly negative for decarbonization in the short term,” by demanding more power from fossil fuels, says Leung. However, AI also pulls the world’s biggest tech firms deeper into the energy transition. Despite recent fence-mending with Trump, Amazon, Alphabet (Google’s parent), Microsoft, and other hyperscalers that operate data centers remain “among the most committed to net-zero,” Leung says. “They may pay a premium for clean electricity.”
BCG’s Fitz points to a subtler trend: The AI-driven power surge is increasing the role of regulated utilities that can pass costs on through rate increases. That could provide one of the safest funding mechanisms for energy-transition investments. However, public resistance to higher bills—especially to fund Big Tech’s energy appetite—could become a major obstacle. BCG expects North American utilities to rely on renewables for 60% of the upcoming power demand increases, with natural gas supplying the other 35%.
One threat that infrastructure pros view as possibly overrated is Trump. The sheer duration of energy investments—far exceeding a single presidential term—makes policy swings less impactful. UBS research predicts that Trump will also struggle to repeal or gut the IRA. Roughly 70% of US renewable projects under development are in “red” states, which voted for Trump, Leung and his colleagues note. Eighteen Republicans in the House of Representatives already signed a letter opposing repeal, more than enough to be decisive in the narrowly divided chamber. But the impact of this resistance is hard to accurately measure, as Trump has been routinely bypassing Congress.
Texas, firmly in the Republican camp politically, nonetheless leads the US in wind and solar power. Nationwide, more than 70% of Americans support more wind and solar energy, according to Pew Research. UBS’ base-case scenario is that Trump will tweak the IRA rather than dismantle it, allowing Republican-led states to complete near-term renewable projects while still giving the president a political victory.
China Dominates Green Investing
The US, the world’s biggest economy, is not the leader in green investment. That distinction belongs to China, which last year sunk $818 billion into clean energy—more than the US, EU, and United Kingdom combined—according to CarbonCredits.com. Solar capacity in the People’s Republic jumped by 45.2% in 2024. China is also miles ahead in plans for nuclear power, which could be making a comeback in the US, too, if not Europe. Nuclear power emits no carbon, though it brings other well-known risks.
China’s leap forward in renewables is largely financed domestically, so global private capital looks elsewhere. Europe remains committed to a renewables surge to partly replace Russian natural gas imports, which Russian President Vladimir Putin cut off in response to Ukraine-related sanctions. The EU is also betting on more liquefied natural gas, but is still investing 10 times as much in renewables as in fossil fuels, the European Investment Bank (EIB) reports. The bloc’s total energy-transition investment jumped by one-third in 2023 to $360 billion and is expected to keep rising to meet 2030 carbon-reduction targets.
Other nations are also stepping up. India’s renewable capacity surged to nearly half the US level last year, with plans to triple by 2030. Six major solar developers in India have “successfully attracted investments from diverse sources, including foreign institutional investors from North America, Europe, and the Middle East,” S&P Global reports.
Brazil added a record 10.9 GW of power capacity last year, nearly 85% of it from renewables. Saudi Arabia is supporting the world’s largest and most ambitious green hydrogen project, near Neom, the kingdom’s “city of the future,” with $8.4 billion in promised investment, according to Neom. The goal is to split water molecules into their oxygen and hydrogen components using electric current produced from renewable sources, then store the hydrogen as a fuel source. Hot on their heels is the Saudis’ neighbor, the United Arab Emirates, leveraging its abundant sunshine for large-scale renewables projects.
Green Energy Has Plenty Of Investors
Capital for renewable energy is not drying up either. As populations age across the developed world and pension assets grow, managers look harder for investments that can match their long-term liabilities, Leung says. Funds in Australia and Canada, whose pension pools punch above their macroeconomic weight, are shifting up to 20% of their portfolios into infrastructure, he adds.
Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) principles continue to motivate big-ticket investors globally, Natixis’ Saint Olive points out. Banks, which provide at least as much infrastructure funding as institutional investors, still want to “greenify their balance sheets.” At least, banks outside the US do. “Banks and sponsors in the rest of the world still have ESG ambitions,” Saint Olive says. “That’s not going to collapse because there is a new president in one country.”
Private equity investments in green energy are also growing, from next to nothing before the pandemic to $26 billion globally by 2023, according to the EIB. Given the private equity model of leveraging up equity holdings, the money at work could be several times that figure.
Private equity players in the US are particularly focused on onshore wind generation, as solar becomes trendier and Texas officials push legislation that advantages fossil fuels, says BCG’s Fitz. “Private equity is paying a premium for wind assets,” she explains. “They view wind as a critical part of the energy picture going forward.”
Funding the global energy transition remains a monumental challenge. The US interstate highway system—one of the great infrastructure projects of the 20th century—cost $129 billion ($389 billion adjusted for inflation) when completed in 1991, according to the US Department of Transportation. That is a small slice of just one year’s capital needs for green power. The US highway system used proven technology and relied on the federal budget.
“Renewables require not just infrastructure, but also a complete rethinking of how energy is produced, stored, and distributed,” as Allianz’s Perez puts it. Governments, strained by 21st century social commitments, want to offload as much cost as possible to the private sector, China partially excepted.
Most renewable-transition estimates exclude the enormous investment required in mining the metals that will build batteries, grids, and turbines, Saint Olive notes. Mining is a “fully merchant business” too dependent on fluctuating prices to offer fixed, infrastructure-style returns; and it earns investors no green points for regulatory or public relations purposes, he adds. “Many banks don’t see the mining business positively from an ESG perspective,” he says. “They would rather let others finance it.”
Energy-Transition Train Is Already Moving
All the same, the global energy transition is not only continuing but accelerating, whatever the rhetoric coming from the White House. Infrastructure investors need to be part of the “complete rethinking” of a lower-carbon future. “The good-ol’ fully contracted project is getting harder to find,” Saint Olive observes.
But infrastructure investors are also used to designing bespoke solutions for a changing project landscape. “The beautiful part of our profession is that for the same asset you can have 20 different finance structures,” Saint Olive says. “In the US, you may have bank loans for construction, then turn to capital markets. European plants could rely on a 10-year power-purchase agreement. In the Middle East, you can get very long-term financing: construction plus 25 years.”
The critical question isn’t whether the transition will happen—but whether it will happen fast enough to avert ecological catastrophe. Private finance looks set to do its part, if engineers and governments can combine to deliver viable investments. “If projects are generating 20% returns, more capital will come in,” UBS’ Leung states. “Economic viability is a big part of the equation, but not always part of the discussion.”
Another United States Mint series comes to a close with today’s noon ET release of the 2025 First Amendment to the United States Constitution Platinum Proof Coin – Right To Petition. Each is struck from 1 ounce of 99.95% fine platinum at the U.S. Mint’s West Point facility and carries a face value of $100.
2025-W Proof American Platinum Eagle – Obverse and Reverse
This coin is the final issue in a five-coin series that began in 2021. The series highlights the five freedoms enshrined in the First Amendment: religion, speech, press, assembly, and petition. It draws inspiration from the Amendment’s full text:
“Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.”
To symbolize these freedoms, the series features designs illustrating the life cycle of an oak tree, from seedling to mature oak, representing the foundational role of the First Amendment in shaping the nation.
The now-completed series includes:
Recent sales figures for the series show 9,884 of the 2021 coin sold, 9,941 of the 2022, 8,494 of the 2023, and 5,106 of the 2024 coin.
All five obverse (heads side) designs in the series were created by Artistic Infusion Program (AIP) Designer Donna Weaver and sculpted by U.S. Mint Chief Engraver Joseph Menna.
The 2025 Right to Petition Platinum Proof Coin features a mature oak tree along with inscriptions reading “WITH THE RIGHT TO PETITION LIBERTY ENDURES,” “E PLURIBUS UNUM,” “IN GOD WE TRUST,” and “2025.”
A common reverse (tails side) design appears on all five coins in the First Amendment series and was also used in the 2018-2020 Preamble to the Declaration of Independence Platinum Series. It depicts an eagle in flight clutching an olive branch, symbolizing peace. The design was created by AIP Designer Patricia Lucas-Morris and sculpted by Medallic Artist Don Everhart.
Reverse inscriptions include “UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,” “$100,” “1 OZ.,” and “.9995 PLATINUM.” A “W” mintmark also appears, indicating production at the West Point Mint
Coin Specifications
Denomination:
$100
Finish:
Proof
Composition:
99.95% Platinum
Diameter:
1.287 inches (32.70 mm)
Weight:
1.0005 troy oz. (31.120 grams)
Edge:
Reeded
Mint and Mint Mark:
West Point – W
Previous Proof American Platinum Eagle Programs
Proof American Platinum Eagles first appeared in 1997 and have seen multiple theme and design changes, including:
Portrait of Liberty (1997)
Vistas of Liberty (1998 to 2002)
Foundations of Democracy (2006 to 2008)
Preamble to the Constitution (2009 to 2014)
Torches of Liberty (2015 and 2016)
a return to the Portrait of Liberty design in 2017 to mark the 20th anniversary of the program
Preamble to the Declaration of Independence Series (2018 to 2020)
Scheduled to launch in 2026 as part of the nation’s Semiquincentennial, the United States Mint will introduce the Charters of Freedom Platinum Proof Coin Series, concluding in 2028.
Ordering, Price, Mintage and Limits
2025 First Amendment to the United States Constitution Platinum Proof Coin — Right to Petition is available for order directly from the U.S. Mint’s catalog of platinum coins.
Pricing, now at $1,545, follows the Mint’s precious metal product pricing structure and may be adjusted weekly based on market fluctuations. The coin has a mintage limit of 9,000, with an initial household order limit of three.
Kroger shares are falling Monday morning after the grocery chain said that CEO and Chairman Rodney McMullen has resigned following a probe on his personal conduct.
McMullen is stepping down “following a Board investigation of his personal conduct that, while unrelated to the business, was inconsistent with Kroger’s Policy on Business Ethics,” the company said.
Lead Director Ron Sargent was appointed board chair and interim CEO.
Kroger (KR) shares are fallingmore than 1%Monday morning after the grocery chain said that CEO and Chairman Rodney McMullen has resigned after a probe on his personal conduct.
McMullen is stepping down “following a Board investigation of his personal conduct that, while unrelated to the business, was inconsistent with Kroger’s Policy on Business Ethics,” the company said.
Kroger said it “was made aware of certain personal conduct by Mr. McMullen” on Feb. 21 “and immediately retained outside independent counsel to conduct an investigation.” Kroger also said McMullen’s conduct wasn’t related to its “financial performance, operations or reporting, and it did not involve any Kroger associates.”
Kroger declined to comment further Monday.
Lead Director Ronald Sargent was appointed board chair and interim CEO, according to a news release.
McMullen joined Kroger in 1978 as a part-time stock clerk in Lexington, Kentucky, according to his biography on the Kroger website, and became CEO in 2014.
Several CEOs in recent years have lost their jobs for personal relationships or other issues that ran afoul of company policies. According to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, seven CEOs left due to allegations of misconduct in 2024 through October last year.
Shares of Kroger, which is scheduled to report earnings Thursday, are up about 30% in the past 12 months.
Solar power is booming, regardless of politics—here’s how to profit from the next big surge.
Hello, Reader.
Much of the United States is still zipping up coats and fitting on gloves. And as it were, Punxsutawney Phil saw his groundhog-shaped shadow in Pennsylvania earlier this month, predicting six more weeks of winter.
We’re now about halfway through the superstitious forecast, which means that nature will soon be gearing up for its rendition of The Beatles’ classic, “Here Comes the Sun.”
The song’s famous lyrics may resonate with you folks in frostier regions, where “it’s been a long, cold, lonely winter.” But the sun will soon come again, and “I say, ‘It’s alright!’”
It’s true… a dark cloud has been hanging over the solar industry.
After President Trump won reelection in November, solar stocks experienced a selloff over worries that he would repeal the Inflation Reduction Act. This would halt the flow of loans to the solar industry from the Department of Energy and grants from the Environmental Protection Agency’s “Solar for All” program. Indeed, since assuming office, Trump has paused distributions from the act.
And yet… solar stocks performed far better during the first Trump administration than they did during the Biden administration.
A repeat performance may be imminent. Solar stocks may soon catch fire once again.
So in today’s Smart Money, let’s take a brief tour of the recent past and explain why President Trump’s return to office might signal bright prospects for the solar industry.
Then, I’ll share how you can capitalize on this solar resurgence…
The Trump Solar Paradox
During the first Trump administration, U.S. solar power capacity doubled. Then it doubled again during the Biden administration.
And now, based on the latest forecasts from the U.S. Solar Energy Industries Association, solar capacity will come close to doubling again during the second Trump administration.
In other words, the solar power industry does not seem to care which party occupies the White House or Congress.
It simply continues to grow… and do so at an exponential rate. Last year, the solar industry installed about 40 gigawatts of new capacity, which is more than the total capacity that existed 10 years ago.
No other domestic energy source is growing faster. Last year, solar installations accounted for a record-high 64% of all new U.S. electricity-generating capacity – up from 36% three years ago and 23% six years ago. This renewable energy source now produces enough electricity annually to power one-quarter of all U.S. homes.
Another reason to believe solar power will continue to thrive during the current Trump administration is that growth is the path of least resistance. The U.S. needs more power, and solar is one of the cheapest ways to get it.
Therefore, even if Trump enacts policies that encourage oil and gas development, he will not likely enact policies that actively discourage solar development.
And the nation’s soaring demand for energy – led by the data center construction boom we need for AI – will require an all-hands-on-deck solution. It will need contributions from every major energy-generation source, from nuclear to oil and gas to – you guessed it – solar.
A New Solar Landscape
Moving from political rhetoric to boots-on-the-ground policies, the Trump administration’s initial actions provide more “pros” than “cons” for the solar industry.
As I mentioned above, Trump has paused distributions from the Inflation Reduction Act.
However, Trump is also eager to fast-track energy projects of all types – both by removing regulatory obstacles and by providing direct government support.
These efforts are great news for the U.S. solar industry, because the main growth constraints it faces are physical, not political. Like most of the power sources in the United States, solar installations often struggle to overcome lengthy permitting processes and grid bottlenecks that can delay projects for years.
The National Energy Emergency Act that Trump signed into law last month seeks to eliminate all obstacles to what it calls “energy security.” In the words of the act…
The integrity and expansion of our Nation’s energy infrastructure — from coast to coast — is an immediate and pressing priority for the protection of the United States’ national and economic security…
This would create jobs and economic prosperity for Americans forgotten in the present economy…
Without immediate remedy, this situation will dramatically deteriorate in the near future due to a high demand for energy and natural resources to power the next generation of technology. The United States’ ability to remain at the forefront of technological innovation depends on a reliable supply of energy and the integrity of our Nation’s electrical grid…
In light of these findings, I hereby declare a national emergency.
Although Trump clearly intends for fossil fuels to take the lead in delivering energy security, solar will also play an essential role, even if government subsidies disappear forever.
According to recent data from Ernst & Young, solar power has become the cheapest source of energy in most locations. For example, the levelized cost of solar energy is at least 29% lower than the cheapest fossil fuel option, including natural gas combined cycle plants.
In other words, solar power is no longer a quirky, fringy obsession of “tree-huggers.” It has joined the club of legitimate, economically viable energy sources.
In 2019, I recommended Daqo New Energy Corp. (DQ), a company that makes and sells polysilicon for solar panels. And a little more than a year after that recommendation, Daqo delivered a 148% gain.
I believe that solar stocks are presenting another compelling opportunity, just like they did during the first Trump administration. And at Fry’s Investment Report, we’re positioned to capitalize on the solar sector’s sunny transformation.
Little has progressed on the trade front since the one-month pause. Officials on both sides have speculated, and Canadian premiers have presented their case in Washington. Yet, here we are again, back to the wire, awaiting news at any moment.
Tariffs are in effect for now, though a last-minute deal remains possible. Last week, the Loonie adjusted to the increased likelihood of tariffs, but markets still largely expect the 25% tariffs won’t materialize. The Loonie climbed from a weekly low of 1.4182—just above the 20-week SMA—to a three-week high of 1.4472, marking a 290-pip weekly gain. If 25% tariffs are confirmed and Canada maintains retaliatory measures, the key resistance level of 1.4472 will likely be broken. Moves toward 1.46 for the Loonie and 21 for the Mexican peso would signal heightened bearish sentiment. The 60-day SMA at 1.433 serves as critical support if tariffs are delayed another month. Speculation continues around smaller tariffs or conditions like stricter drug traffic enforcement or matching U.S. tariffs on China, which could rise from 10% to 20%. Again, contradictory messages on tariff plans for Canada and Mexico have fueled volatility, particularly in USD/CAD, where implied volatility has surged last week.
Amid the chaos, one clear winner has emerged: the Canadian Liberals. PM Trudeau’s decision to prorogue parliament has boosted his party, now leading the Conservatives in polls for the first time in years. The Liberals have gained momentum by opposing Trump’s tariff threats and increasing investment in citizen-focused infrastructure. Time and wait have worked in their favor. Mark Carney has overtaken Chrystia Freeland as the most likely successor, with a final decision expected on March 9th. As March unfolds, Canadian politics will play out against a backdrop of ongoing uncertainty.
Today, key macro data from the U.S. will reveal whether manufacturing levels remain above the 50-expansion mark. In Canada, PMI manufacturing data is also due, though tariff news will dominate market focus.
Dollar between (-) macro and (+) geopolitics
Boris Kovacevic – Global Macro Strategist
Rising inflation expectations and tariff angst are threatening the path of the US economy towards a soft landing, a scenario that seemed increasingly more likely from October onwards. That was when economic momentum started gaining traction again as the labor market began outperforming expectations. The election of President Trump led to a one-off boost in confidence as small and medium sized enterprises bet on tax cuts and the cutting of red tape. Now this narrative is in danger of falling apart due to tariff confusion and lower growth.
Last week, for example, ended on a sour note as Trump and Zelenskiy clashed in the Oval Office due to multiple disagreements regarding the war in Ukraine. The joint press conference that should have followed was canceled, sending a stark signal to the rest of the world that an immediate peace deal seems out of reach. Geopolitics and tariff chatter have clearly been a net-negative factor for risk assets as of late.
To make matters worse, investors have started questioning the health of the US economy. Last week’s weaker than expected macro data and front-loading of imports before US companies are hit by tariffs lead to a drastic drop of growth expectations. The Atlanta Fed Nowcast for Q1 fell from 2.3% to 1.5%, a decline only seen during periods of significant turmoil or crises. Inflation published on Friday was in line with expectations with the PCE index rising by 0.3% m/m in January. However, personal spending fell by 0.2%, the first decline in almost two years.
The dollar rose for a third consecutive session and is currently only supported by the geopolitical uncertainty as the macro picture looks increasingly bad. Investors went from pricing in one rate cut by the Fed just days ago to now expecting three for 2025. This is reflected in Treasuries as well. The 2-year yield fell below 4% for the first time since October, matching the low of the US surprise index. This week’s labor market data will be the first large litmus test for the US economy and therefore the US dollar in some time.
Euro in the shadow of Trump
Boris Kovacevic – Global Macro Strategist
The euro is once again feeling the force that geopolitical uncertainty can have on sentiment and markets. European sentiment as of late has been improving, although at a slower than expected pace. The US macro picture seems to be deteriorating, and investors are back at pricing in three rate cuts from the Fed. At the same time is the narrative surrounding policy easing by the ECB becoming more complicated as inflation is picking up again.
However, none of this mattered for investors concerned with the spat between Trump and Zelenskiy and the falling implied probability of a peace deal being reached in the near term. The euro pushed lower for a second consecutive week and is once again trading below the $1.04 mark. Investors expecting the ECB meeting on Thursday to be a new catalyst to push the currency in either direction might be disappointed.
The 25-basis point cut is fully priced in, so it will be about the forward guidance to play the role of the market mover. However, the uncertain trade and geopolitical environment will likely mean that policy makers should remain caution and sensitive to the news flow. Today’s inflation print for the Eurozone is expected to show some deceleration in inflation pressures. The bigger catalyst for renewed selling pressure might once again come from the political or macro front. We would need a significant surprise on the US labor market report on Friday to see some price action of above $1.05 or below $1.03.
Swinging with risk sentiment
George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist
Having jumped to a more than 2-month high above $1.27 last week, GBP/USD is back flirting with the $1.26 handle following renewed geopolitical uncertainty as the hostile White House meeting between Trump and Zelensky threatens prospects of a US-brokered ceasefire with Ukraine and Russia. The risk sensitive pound slid against safe haven peers, but remains firm against the euro, with GBP/EUR closing the month above €1.21 for the first time since 2016.
The UK’s worsening net international investment position and the fact it has a persistent current account deficit leaves sterling reliant on foreign capital inflows. With this in mind, if we see a bigger drawdown in equity markets, then realistically the pound should come under pressure as well via the risk sentiment channel. However, on the trade front, Britain is way down on Trump’s list for tariffs, both because he likes the UK and because the UK-US trading relationship is much more balanced than most, with US actually having a goods trade surplus with the UK. This is why sterling is viewed as a tariff haven of sorts. Indeed, the FX options market reveals that one-week risk reversals are least bearish on sterling right now versus most of the G10.
The main upside risk for sterling this week is if President Trump reverses or delays increases to tariffs on Mexico and Canada that are scheduled for Tuesday as this would likely boost risk sentiment across the board. Moreover, if the influx of US data disappoints this week, particularly the labour market report on Friday, this could help the pound resume its recovery back above $1.27 versus the dollar.
*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
Wealthy investors are expected to look beyond stocks and bonds, prompting private banks to expand offerings and expertise.
Publicly traded stocks and bonds have been great investments over the last 15 years, but wealthy investors are increasingly looking for alternatives to what the public securities markets offer them.
Whether from fear that public stocks are overvalued, that inflation will rise again, or that market volatility will increase going forward, wealthy investors want a change from the traditional.
Private banks are gearing up to help provide alternatives.
“Historically, [private investors] have been under-allocated to alternative assets compared to institutional investors, but we’re seeing a strong rise in demand,” says Mark Sutterlin, head of alternative investments at Bank of America Private Bank and Merrill Lynch. “We think most of our clients would be better off with an alternatives allocation around 25%.”
That would represent a huge shift in investing behavior for high-net-worth (HNW) investors. According to a 2023 report from consulting firm Bain & Co, ultra-high-net-worth investors and family offices with more than $30 million in assets already have 22% of their wealth invested in alternatives. But those with $5 million to $30 million in assets allocate only an average 3% to alternatives and those with $1 million to $5 million just 0.7%.
With individual investors and family offices holding more than half of the $289 trillion in global assets under management, that represents a huge, largely untapped pool of capital for alternative asset managers. It also represents a major challenge for private bankers aiming to help their HNW clients navigate new investment markets.
Preqin, an alternatives research firm, is forecasting that alternative assets under management—including private equity and credit, venture capital, hedge funds, real estate, and infrastructure investments—will rise from $16.8 trillion at the end of 2023 to $29.22 trillion by the end of 2029. Increased fundraising from private banks, family offices, and individual investors is expected to fuel the growth.
While Preqin is forecasting growth in all segments of the alternatives market—including hedge funds, which suffered an abysmal 2022 when both stocks and bonds took double digit losses—private equity and credit are the hottest markets.
“There’s been a tremendous amount of interest in private equity and private credit all along the wealth spectrum,” says William Whitt, analyst with Datos Insights who focuses on wealth management. “I expect the strong demand will likely last a couple more years as long as the economy stays healthy.”
Kinder, Gentler Offerings
Fueling the demand are kinder, gentler investment offerings from private asset managers.
“The preeminent sponsors recognize the opportunity and have become better partners with investors,” says Sutterlin. Large firms like Blackstone Group, KKR & Co, and Apollo Global Management have launched funds with smaller investment minimums, lower fees, greater transparency and even a degree of liquidity (see sidebar). “Investors are getting better access to the best strategies on better terms. Everything is changing in favor of end investors.”
Some banks are launching separate entities to help shepherd investors into private markets. Deutsche Bank launched DB Investment Partners just over a year ago to give institutional and HNW investors access to private credit investments. With floating interest rates, these vehicles have been in high demand for the last several years. DB Investment Partners operates independently and Deutsche is retaining its existing private credit business.
While the demand for alternatives is most developed in North America and Europe, Asia too is trending alternative.
“We’re seeing much more demand from our clients across the spectrum of alternative assets,” says Chee Jiun Wen, head of alternative investments at Bank of Singapore. “It’s not just about reducing risks but generating alpha and accessing opportunities you can’t get in the public markets.”
The bank, formerly known as ING Asia Private Bank, has been hiring people with institutional backgrounds and experience in alternatives markets. Its roughly 500 relationship managers get in-house training on alternative asset classes and how to incorporate them into client portfolios.
“We’ve been able to expand the investment universe for our clients and provide access to more investment solutions and investing strategies,” says Chee.
The bank is doing the same for its financial intermediary clients. Last year it launched a digital platform in partnership with global fintech firm iCapital that provides independent asset managers (IAMs) with access to over 1,600 funds from 600-plus firms. The site also offers research and tools for due diligence and reports and performance updates on fund investments.
“We’re a first mover in this space in Asia,” says Chee. “We’re giving IAMs the power to pick and choose the managers and investing strategies that make sense for their clients.”
A Key Differentiator
For private banks, helping wealthy clients increase their exposure to alternative assets smoothly and successfully will be a key differentiator in the wealth management industry going forward. While most have experience investing in alternatives for their wealthiest clients, the scale of the expected shift into alternatives in the HNW client space will be a major challenge for firms.
“There is a huge opportunity in private wealth, but banks need to be prepared for the growth,” says Trish Halper, CIO in the family office practice at Northern Trust. Halper’s clients have been investing in alternatives for decades with average allocations between 30% and 50%. “Family offices were early adopters in the alternatives space and high-net-worth investors are now catching up.”
The workload for financial advisors is significantly heavier with private market assets than with publicly traded stocks and bonds.
“The dispersion of returns is much wider in private markets than in public markets, which makes manager selection really important,” says Halper. “Banks need to devote enough resources for strong due diligence because access to information and data is much less in the private markets.”
The sourcing of quality investments is just the beginning. Private asset portfolios need to be diversified across sectors, vintages, and financial sponsors to reduce risk; the investments and the asset managers themselves need to be monitored; capital call obligations must be executed; and distributions need to be managed when investments mature.
“There are a lot more operational and administrative tasks involved in private investments,” Halper notes.
The growth in alternative asset markets represents a major shift in the private banking landscape. Banks across global markets are investing in technology and talent to handle the transition and to ensure that alternatives allocations help to optimize clients’ portfolios and meet their financial goals.
“The capital markets have evolved,” argues Bank of America’s Sutterlin. “For investors who want a truly diversified portfolio, if they’re not invested in private markets in both equities and fixed income, they’re not in a big part of the capital markets now.”
Whitman Brands™ proudly announces the return of A Guide Book of United States Coins, the world’s #1 best-selling price guide and numismatic reference, now enhanced in its completely-redesigned 79th edition.
Now available in more industry-standard 6×9” formats, including hardcover, perfect bound softcover, and spiral-bound, as well as large print spiral-bound, both in double-coil.
Since 1946, collectors worldwide have trusted this guide for its grade-by-grade coin values, historical insights, detailed specifications, high-resolution photographs, and accurate mintage data. Wholesale shipments begin late March 2025.
The 2026 edition has been meticulously redesigned with the collector in mind. It features a larger 6″ x 9″ format, an intuitive layout, and over 32,500 market values in up to nine grades for more than 12,000 coins, tokens, medals, sets, and other collectibles. It also includes new market insights, updated research, and the latest mint data.
This year’s edition features a completely redesigned interior layout for easier use, market values for more than 12,000 listings using CPG® retail pricing, fun fact spotlights, updated research, the latest U.S. Mint data, and much more.
For the first time, pricing is based on Collector’s Price Guide (CPG®) retail pricing, and Greysheet Identification (GSIDSM) catalog numbers are integrated for seamless identification across Whitman’s family of products.
“I am truly honored to have been part of this year’s transformation, working closely with the extremely talented and professional staff at Whitman and the invaluable Red Book Advisory Panel of more than 70 numismatic industry leaders, experts, and supporters,” said Jeff Garrett, Editor and President of Mid-American Rare Coin Galleries.
“Every change, from the book’s physical size to its presentation order, was carefully chosen and implemented with a single goal—to enhance the collector’s experience.”
Key Enhancements
A Guide Book of United States Coins, affectionately known as the Red Book for its distinctive red color, debuts an all-new cover design for 2026.
In terms of layout, collectors will notice several key improvements, with certain major sections now arranged by collector preference rather than strict technical definitions.
The Private and Territorial Gold chapter has been significantly expanded, now including BG (Breen-Gillio) attribution numbers. Previously covering about 100 listings in two-and-a-half pages, this section now spans more than five pages with approximately 580 total listings.
Commemoratives chapter has been reorganized to better align with market conventions. They are now grouped by denomination and listed by the familiar names collectors use. Classic commemoratives are arranged alphabetically, while modern commemoratives remain listed by date.
Circulation and Proof-strike value charts have been separated throughout the book, making it easier for collectors to assess market values. Type-coin value charts have been added for each coin type, where applicable, including qualities of surface (e.g., Deep Cameo, DMPL), strike (e.g., Full Bands for dimes, Full Bell Lines for half dollars), and color (Brown, Red Brown, and Red). Coins known in all three levels of the relevant quality may have as many as 27 price points, ranging from G-4 to MS-65RD.
New data organization consolidates coin type information at the beginning of each section, allowing readers to compare multiple types without flipping back and forth, improving readability and accessibility.
Additional enhancements include:
Fun-fact spotlights throughout the book.
A regular, fully illustrated case study in the “Grading U.S. Coins” section (this edition’s focus: Morgan Dollars).
A new “Collector’s Notebook” covering timely topics in numismatics (this edition’s subject: Misinformation in Numismatics).
With over 25 million copies sold, the Red Book remains one of the best-selling nonfiction books in American publishing history – an invaluable resource for collectors at all levels.
“Our commitment remains strong, not only to preserving its legacy but also to expanding its reach,” said John Feigenbaum, Publisher and President/CEO of Whitman Brands. “From the Red Book to Red Book Quarterly (formerly CPG Coin & Currency Market Review) to the Red Book Podcast (now in its sixth episode and quickly growing in popularity), we are building something truly special and enduring for the collecting community.”
In addition to the larger 6×9″ format, the 2026 Red Book will be available in four different print bindings: hardcover, perfect bound softcover, spiral-bound, and large print spiral-bound. Pre-order purchases can be made now at Whitman.com and Amazon; regular purchases can be made through Whitman’s Ebay Store, Walmart.com, bookstores, hobby shops, and other retailers nationwide beginning April 8, 2025.
Whitman Brands provides comprehensive resources for collectors, offering unparalleled coverage of collectibles, literature, cataloging, and pricing. Dedicated to celebrating the rich heritage of numismatics, Whitman enriches the lives of coin and paper-money enthusiasts across the globe.
As North America’s leader in coin and currency events, Whitman Expos further elevates the brand, hosting three premier shows annually in Baltimore and expanding the company’s national influence.
Intel said it plans to push back the opening of two chipmaking facilities currently under construction in Ohio.
The company’s chief global operations officer said the move reflected market demand.
Intel’s chipmaking business has been the subject of recent deal speculation.
Intel (INTC) said it plans to push back the opening of two chipmaking facilities currently under construction in Ohio.
The beleaguered chipmaker now expects the two plants on its Ohio One campus to finish construction in 2030 and 2031, Intel Chief Global Operations Officer Naga Chandrasekaran said in an open letter to employees Friday. A year ago, the company said its goal was to finish construction on the $28 billion project in 2026—already a delay from its original target of 2025. Intel broke ground on the project in 2022.
“As we continue to invest across our U.S. sites, it’s important that we align the start of production of our fabs with the needs of our business and broader market demand,” Chandrasekaran said. Construction could be accelerated in the future “if customer demand warrants,” he added.
The delay comes as Intel’s struggling foundry business has been the subject of acquisition speculation. TSMC (TSM), the world’s largest chip manufacturer, has reportedly considered taking over some or all of Intel’s chip plants as part of an investor consortium or another structure. Separately, Broadcom (AVGO) has also reportedly looked into buying Intel’s chip-design and marketing business.
Shares of Intel were little changed in extended trading Friday after climbing close to 3% in the regular session. They’ve lost close to half their value over the past 12 months.
These two names are riding powerful market cycles higher, and with the right strategy, you can find even more opportunities.
Last month, I (Tom Yeung) introduced eight cyclical stocksto buy immediately. These high-quality companies had winds in their sails, and all have since performed splendidly. As of writing, these companies have returned:
On average, these eight stocks have surged 8.6% in less than a month.
That’s more than ten times better than the S&P 500’s return, and stands in total contrast with the negative returns of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.3%) and Nasdaq Composite (-0.1%).
We didn’t even have to take much “risk” to achieve these results. CME Group and CBOE have virtual monopolies in options and futures markets… Eversource is a New England power utility… and it’s hard to think of a more stereotypically dull firm than Kleenex maker Kimberly-Clark.
That’s because conservative stocks can provide magnificent returns when they have cyclical tailwinds on their side. Short-term seasonal effects are powering the four energy companies higher because natural gas prices typically rise during the cold winter months. Medium-term optimism is driving KMB’s gains. And longer-term business cycles are helping CME, CBOE, and ABBV do well.
Still, these cycles are a blink of an eye when viewed through the lens of Keith Kaplan, CEO of TradeSmith. To him, he’s looking for cycles across decades… if not longer.
These generational shifts can power stocks like Apple Inc. (AAPL) for a quarter-century, turning every $10,000 invested in 1997 into $16 million today.
That’s why I encourage you to reserve your spot for Keith’s latest presentation. During that free broadcast, next Thursday, February 27, he’ll be revealingwhat he’s calling “the pattern,” a cyclical effect that’s only happened every 49.5 years on average.
When this patten appears, Keith says, it can send a specific class of stocks soaring. In fact, back-tests show the last time this pattern appeared under these conditions, it led to historic gains over the long haul, such as 9,731% from a leading software company… and 28,894% from a computer-driven hardware firm.
For long-term investors, it’s an event you don’t want to miss.
Meanwhile, I’d like to introduce two more cyclical stocks for shorter-term investors seeking to ride cyclical waves higher.
2 Roaring Cyclical Stocks to Buy
Like before, I apply four key criteria to find cyclical firms to buy:
Upside. These firms must score an “A” or “B” in Louis Navellier’s Stock Grader (subscription to any Navellier service required). This proven quantitative system has long been a solid predictor of future gains, thanks to its focus on institutional fund flows, fundamental quality, and other critical factors.
Quality. Companies must have “moats” around their businesses that protect them during low-cycle moments. Buying cyclical companies is pointless if the firms can’t survive the next inevitable downturn.
Cyclicality. The firm’s industry must demonstrate an ability to bounce back. So, I exclude any “sunset” industries that are trending downward into oblivion.
Timing. The company must trade within 30% of its 52-week low. This prevents us from buying shares of cyclical companies at the top of the market.
The Data Center Giant Hiding in Plain Sight
Anyone who has visited Northern Virginia will have seen its picturesque rolling hills, scenic trails, and budding winery industry.
In addition to the occasional hidden government base, this natural beauty hides another secret:
America’s largest data center network.
The region hosts more than 500 of these facilities – drawn in by Virginia’s world-class fiber optic network, affordable electricity, and proximity to other data centers. When you’re running a massive computer network, it’s best to locate your servers near others.
That’s where Digital Realty Trust Inc. (DLR) comes in. The San Francisco-based firm is the world’s largest data center and co-location provider – the service that rents data center facilities to other companies. Digital Realty’s 300 data centers span 50 cities, and it has strategically located centers in almost every major computing cluster.
That’s made Digital Realty an incredible winner in the race for AI computing power. On February 13, the company announced revenues of $1.4 billion (a solid 5% rise from the prior year) and earnings per share of $0.51, a fivefold jump.
The cycle will likely continue through 2025 as cloud computing companies struggle to construct data centers fast enough. In January, companies from Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) to Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) reported they were turning business away from a lack of capacity.
This has triggered a surge in new leasing activity for Digital Realty, which should bring in record profits in 2025. Analysts expect adjusted EBITDA growth to accelerate to 8% this year and 11% in 2026.
Please note that the party will eventually end for Digital Realty. Many tech firms are building their own hyperscale data centers, and these facilities will compete against Digital Realty’s vast network. DLR is also not immune from the “bust” part of the boom-bust cycles of data centers, given its relatively commoditized business.
Nevertheless, Digital Realty’s double-digit selloff since November provides an opening for investors to buy into the AI Revolution for a discount. Shares likely have a 30% short-term upside from here.
Getting Back on the Menu
In 1992, the National Livestock and Meat Board launched an advertising campaign aimed at promoting beef consumption.
“Beef. It’s What’s for Dinner” was a surprising success. Over 88% of Americans now recognize the slogan, and it may have contributed to the recovery of beef consumption in the late 1990s.
Nevertheless, no advertising campaign has ever solved the cyclicality of the meat production industry. Cattle producers typically adjust their herds collectively, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture notes this creates a “cattle cycle” that lasts 8to 12 years. The graph below illustrates how regular these peaks and troughs can be.
The latest trough is now in sight. Cattle herds are expected to bottom out this year and potentially rise again in 2026. The trade publication Drovers Magazine notes that Oklahoma calf prices are up 61% since 2022, which is creating “increasingly strong market signals for cow-calf producers to expand the beef cow herd.”
That’s excellent news for Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN), North America’s largest cattle processor. The firm handles almost a quarter of beef packed in the U.S., and has divisions across Asia and Europe that do the same. A turnaround in U.S. cattle production will strongly impact the company’s bottom line since that segment is loss-making at current production volumes.
In addition, Tyson is benefiting from consistent poultry demand, because it also controls 25% of that market. That segment generated 9.1% adjusted operating margins in its most recent quarter – the highest level since 2017. Chicken feed costs have eased, and Tyson has managed the recent bird flu epidemic relatively well.
Together, analysts expect Tyson’s net income to rise at a 19% annualized rate through 2027, a bullish sign for the stock. Shares of the meat processor have typically surged during cattle upcycles (60% during 2004-’07 and 120% in 2015-’22), and this new cattle cycle promises more of the same.
The Even Greater Cycle
The downside to cyclical companies like Digital Realty and Tyson is that “what goes up must come down.” Good times eventually end, and investors have a habit of acting as if peak cycles will never return. Shares of both firms fell as much as 50% in the last market downturn and will likely do so again.
Thomas Yeung is a market analyst and portfolio manager of the Omnia Portfolio, the highest-tier subscription at InvestorPlace. He is the former editor of Tom Yeung’s Profit & Protection, a free e-letter about investing to profit in good times and protecting gains during the bad.
