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In late 2023, the European Union finalized its Artificial Intelligence Act, the world’s first comprehensive law governing corporate AI use. The EU AI Act, which takes full effect by August 2026, applies to any company operating in Europe or serving EU consumers, including U.S. tech giants and startups with overseas customers.

As AI usage becomes more embedded across the public and private sectors, Europe’s legislation could pressure American companies to rethink their approach to data privacy, transparency, and human oversight.

Here’s what’s included in Europe’s sweeping regulation, how it might affect U.S.-based business owners, and why it might reshape consumer expectations.

What Does the EU AI Act Do?

The EU AI Act’s main goal is to ensure that companies that develop and use artificial intelligence systems do so safely, ethically, and with respect for consumers’ rights and privacy. It classifies AI tools by risk level and applies different compliance rules accordingly.

• Minimal risk AI systems like AI-powered spam filters and simple video games are largely unregulated. 
• Limited-risk AI systems like chatbots, automated product recommendation systems, and image/video filters and enhancement tools must meet transparency obligations to inform users that they’re interacting with artificial intelligence. 
• High-risk AI systems are those used in applications like credit scoring, critical infrastructure, border control management, worker management, law enforcement, and many activities that determine a person’s access to resources. These systems face strict documentation, testing, and human oversight requirements, which are expected to go into effect in early August 2026.
• Unacceptable risk AI systems have been deemed to threaten people’s rights, safety, or livelihoods and are banned outright within the EU (with some exceptions). Examples include real-time biometric surveillance for law enforcement or categorization based on sensitive attributes, social scoring systems, and any form of “manipulative AI” that impairs decision-making. This ban has been in effect since February 2025.

The Act also includes provisions for “general purpose AI” (GPAI) models like OpenAI’s ChatGPT to comply with certain requirements based on their level of risk. All GPAIs must adhere to the EU’s Copyright Directive (2019) and provide usage instructions, technical documentation, and a summary of the data used to train their models. Additional compliance criteria apply to GPAI models that “present a systemic risk.”

While some Big Tech companies have pushed back on the regulation, the European Commission has indicated it’s open to amending the Act during a planned review.

Why Does the EU AI Act Matter for American Businesses?

The EU AI Act applies to any company operating within or serving consumers in the European Union, regardless of where they’re headquartered. For American organizations with overseas business partners or customers, the Act could mean significant compliance costs and operational changes for big players and startups. Fines can be as high as 7% of global annual revenue if you use a banned AI application, with slightly lower fines for noncompliance or inaccurate reporting.

Yelena Ambartsumian, founder of AMBART LAW, a New York City law firm focused on AI governance and privacy, believes U.S. companies will start to feel the “regulatory heat” when the provisions dealing with high-risk AI systems go into effect next year.

“U.S. companies must ensure their AI systems meet the transparency and documentation standards set by the EU, which includes providing detailed technical documentation and ensuring proper human oversight,” Ambartsumian said. “Failure to comply could result in penalties, market restrictions, and reputational damage.”

Pete Foley, CEO of ModelOp, an AI governance firm for enterprise clients, added, “U.S. companies could stand to receive a wake-up call.”

“They’ll all need to reevaluate their AI governance practices and make sure they align with the EU expectations,” Foley said.

An AI educator, author, and business consultant, Peter Swain, expects the Act’s rollout and enforcement to follow the same path as the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR).

“The EU AI Act is GDPR for algorithms: If you trade with Europe, its rules ride along,” said Swain. “GDPR already gave us the playbook: early panic, a compliance gold rush, then routine audits. Expect the same curve here.”

Will American Consumers Be Impacted by the EU AI Act?

While American consumers might not be directly impacted by the EU AI Act’s provisions, experts believe users will get accustomed to higher standards of transparency and privacy by design from EU-originating apps and platforms.

Adnan Masood, Ph.D., Chief AI Architect at UST, noted that consumers will gain clearer insight into when algorithms influence decisions, what data is used, and where redress is possible.

“Europe is setting baseline expectations for ethical AI, and the resulting uplift in transparency will spill over to American users as companies unify product experiences across regions,” Masood said.

“Right now, consumers don’t know what they don’t know,” added Swain. “Once Americans taste that transparency, they’ll demand it everywhere, forcing U.S. companies to comply—regulators optional.”

Will the US Adopt Similar Rules?

William O. London, a business attorney and founding partner at Kimura London & White LLP, noted that the U.S. has taken a more sector-specific and state-driven approach to AI regulation. Still, there is growing bipartisan interest in establishing federal AI governance.

While the White House did revise its existing policies on federal AI usage and procurement in April 2025, this is unlikely to lead to a federal regulation resembling the EU AI Act.

“Any U.S. legislation will likely seek to balance innovation with consumer protection, but may be less restrictive to avoid stifling tech development,” said London.

Ambartsumian noted that AI regulation is becoming more intertwined with politics and industry.

“Tech companies have been quite vocal in appealing to the [Trump] administration to exempt them from state laws [on AI],” she said. “The House Energy and Commerce Committee is now evaluating a 10-year moratorium … on state-level laws.”

At the time of writing, only a handful of states have laws on the books regarding AI usage, including Colorado (which is the most similar to the EU AI Act), California, and Tennessee and several others are considering similar pieces of legislation.

While such guidelines can help level the playing field when it comes to AI usage, Foley warns that compliance costs and administrative burdens could strain small businesses’ limited resources, especially if they’re trying to keep up with nuanced state-specific laws around AI. 

“It’s crucial for policymakers to consider scalable compliance solutions and support mechanisms to ensure that small businesses can navigate the evolving regulatory landscape without disproportionate hardship,” Foley added.

Regardless of current or pending AI rules in your state, experts say it’s wise to start preparing for greater AI transparency if compliance becomes mandatory. 

“Smart small businesses should calibrate to the strictest standard—the EU—once, then sell anywhere,” Swain advised. “Create a one‑page ‘Model Safety Data Sheet’ for every AI tool—purpose, data sources, and risk controls. It turns red tape into a trust badge.”

The Bottom Line

The EU AI Act is a bold move toward protecting citizens in an AI-driven world. It may very well become a strict model for the rest of the world, or it may get watered down as industries that rely heavily on artificial intelligence fight against regulatory hurdles. Either way, consumers can expect AI-driven services to become more transparent in Europe and eventually, everywhere else.

​There’s a new meme king-in-the-making, and it’s already cooking up chaos in the crypto swamps. While the mighty Shiba Inu (SHIB) gears up for another round of respectable gains, Little Pepe (LILPEPE) is emerging from the shadows, fresh, fearless, and full of firepower.  With both tokens staring down the barrel of a 10x potential, the real question isn’t if they’ll pump—it’s how hard. And between SHIB’s legacy march and LILPEPE’s zero-tax Layer 2 rocket fuel, only one looks set to smash through the 20x, 30x, even 50x barrier. SHIB may be the top dog, but LILPEPE is the rare frog with wings—and wings, dear degens, are what it takes to fly straight to the moon.

Shiba Inu (SHIB): The Veteran Meme Slayer

There’s no need to introduce Shiba Inu. The original underdog has evolved into a global meme juggernaut, achieving heights that most meme coins can only dream of. Even now, in 2025, SHIB holds a dominant position, with a market cap of around $7.7 billion and nearly 1.5 million wallets. The recent 30% surge in Q2 demonstrates its ability to respond positively to market conditions. Green.

• Strategic token burns and rising institutional interest (including ETF rumors) are working in its favor.

According to analysts, SHIB is expected to trade between $0.00002750 and $0.00009542 by May 2025. That’s respectable—up to 230% gains if you bought the dip. But here’s the rub: when you’ve already hit billions in valuation, another 10x means billions more have to come in. At this point, the potential upside for SHIB appears to be approximately 10 times its current value, and with the right circumstances, it could potentially reach 15 times its current value.

Little Pepe (LILPEPE): The Layer 2 Legend in the Making

Enter Little Pepe (LILPEPE)—the green knight galloping into crypto with meme-powered mayhem and the kind of upside that leaves old-school coins trembling in the charts.

This is not your average frog-themed coin. Built on Ethereum’s foundation and powered by a next-generation Layer 2 chain, LILPEPE is not merely riding the meme wave; it is actively shaping it.

• Zero tax on all transactions
• 100 billion fixed supply
• A presale that’s already crossed $200K in under 24 hours 

You can join the presale now while LILPEPE is priced at $0.001. This is the initial stage of the offering, during which 500 million tokens are available at a significantly reduced price.

Designed to Pump: LILPEPE’s Hyper-Powered Tokenomics

This structure is optimized for high velocity and long-term sustainability—a rare combo in meme coin land. With bots blocked, taxes at zero, and intelligent whales loading up early, LILPEPE is primed for virality.

And let’s not forget the “Pregnancy, Birth, Growth” roadmap, which includes:

• Launchpad support for other meme tokens
   
• Listings on 2 top CEXs at launch
   
• A future listing on the biggest exchange in the world (plans already sorted)

Meme War: SHIB or LILPEPE – Who Wins?

The presale isn’t just open—it’s popping, with over 200,786,076+ LILPEPE tokens sold already. You can ape in now using ETH or USDT via MetaMask or Trust Wallet.

Final Thoughts: One is Stable, the Other is Supercharged

If you’re after steady returns and legacy vibes, SHIB is a decent bet. However, if you’re seeking high-performing multiples, LILPEPE is the ideal choice. You’ve invested in meme coins before. Some were rugged, some rallied. But LILPEPE is different—a meme with its Layer 2, no tax, bot-resistant tech, and CEX listings locked in. Little Pepe stands as the heir to the meme coin throne in a world dominated by recycled frogs and sleepy dog coins, and if the roadmap holds, early investors may see returns exceeding 100 times their investment before the year ends.

Don’t wait until Twitter makes it a trend. Don’t wait until CEXes pump it to the sky.

Join the $LILPEPE presale now—before the frog flies.

For more information about Little Pepe (LILPEPE) visit the links below:

Website: https://littlepepe.com

Whitepaper: https://littlepepe.com/whitepaper.pdf

Telegram: https://t.me/littlepepetoken

Twitter/X: https://x.com/littlepepetoken ​

Disclaimer: The views and opinions presented in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of CoinCheckup. The content of this article should not be considered as investment advice. Always do your own research before deciding to buy, sell or transfer any crypto assets. Past returns do not always guarantee future profits.

Written by the Market Insights Team

Geopolitical tensions to center stage. Israel has launched a major attack on Iran, striking military bases and nuclear sites. Iranian state media reports that three top generals were killed. Tehran responded with drone attacks on Israel. Netanyahu vowed the strikes would continue “as many days as it takes.” Meanwhile, failed U.S.-Iran nuclear talks under the Trump administration have left tensions high. The rising tension has pushed oil prices higher and given the dollar a boost. The VIX index spiked and has risen back above 20.

Double blow to USD: bearish forces at play

Antonio Ruggiero – FX & Macro Strategist

A double hit of disappointing trade news and heightened Fed rate cut expectations fueled a broad-based selloff in the dollar this week. The greenback fell against all G10 currencies, with the Bloomberg Dollar Index sliding as much as 0.8% yesterday – one of its weakest levels in three years. Overnight, the greenback received some support – DXY up 0.4% – as traders moved toward safe-haven demand sparked by heightened tensions in the Middle East.

Soft inflation data has reinforced expectations of further easing. Core CPI rose just 0.1% month-over-month, while PPI remained muted at +0.1% for May, pushing traders to price in additional rate cuts ahead of the Fed’s June 18 meeting.

Despite this, the dollar still holds a yield advantage against its peers, leading some to argue that the sharp decline may be overdone. However, we suspect that recent speculations over the next Fed chair has likely amplified the bearish move. Whether Bessent or another Trump appointee takes the helm, a more dovish stance seems inevitable – reinforcing the case that downward pressure on the dollar could prove more lasting than anticipated.

On the trade front, uncertainty remains high. No concrete news on a US-China deal, while Trump’s new threat of expanding steel tariffs starting June 23 on imported “steel derivative products”, were inevitable contributors to the dollar’s extended decline.

USD/CAD hits lowest since last October

Kevin Ford – FX & Macro Strategist

Wednesday’s soft US CPI data has reset rate expectations, returning them to levels seen at the end of last month, with two rate cuts now projected by year-end. Additionally, the US producer price index inched up 0.1% in May, reflecting subdued inflation with no signs of tariff-driven price shocks. Some sectors showed hints of tariff-related increases, but these were offset by moderate price growth elsewhere, keeping inflation in check. As a result, investors have strengthened bets on a potential Fed rate cut later this year, while analysts shift their focus to the upcoming personal consumption expenditures price index for further inflation signals.

Despite falling yields across the curve, there’s still no clear evidence of economic deterioration, keeping bearish sentiment firmly in control of USD trading across G10 currencies. The Canadian dollar spent most of the week fluctuating within a narrow range of 1.365 to 1.369, but on Thursday, it slipped below 1.365, hitting a new 2025 low of 1.3592. The 1.365 level remains a critical short-term support/resistance, with multiple closes below potentially paving the way for a move toward the 1.36–1.355 range. However, buying interest could emerge around the 1.36 zone, as the pair nears oversold territory based on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), potentially limiting further downside momentum. During Asia-Pacific trading, the USD/CAD rebounded back to 1.365 on fears the Israel-Iran conflict will escalate further.

Meanwhile, bullish sentiment in options markets has eased, reflecting a more cautious outlook. Notably, Canadian pension funds and asset managers, traditionally known for low hedge ratios on U.S. assets, have ramped up hedging activity since late April. Given the sizeable presence of the pension and insurance sector, these moves have had a notable market impact.

Sentiment vs. fundamentals: the euro’s fragile rise

Antonio Ruggiero – FX & Macro Strategist

The euro’s rally gained momentum this week, with EUR/USD comfortably surpassing April’s highs of $1.515 and briefly testing the $1.16 level—its highest since October 2021. However, the pair pared back some of its gains during Asian trading as geopolitical tensions escalated following Israel’s preemptive attack on Iran, amplifying risk-off sentiment.

While the broader trend remains bullish, signs of short-term exhaustion have emerged throughout May, with spot prices falling below shorter-term moving averages. The narrative remains clear: broader US sentiment is dictating euro price action. When positive trade developments emerge, as seen in May with the US negotiations with the EU and China, euro momentum fades. When sentiment deteriorates, as witnessed this week, the currency strengthens.

This latest push higher was amplified by a narrower rate gap favoring the euro, following soft inflation prints from the US. Although rate differentials have played a smaller role in driving EUR/USD recently, their impact was more pronounced this week as dovish Fed expectations combined with a hawkish ECB stance last week.

Meanwhile, Eurozone industrial activity for April, released later today, is expected to have slowed significantly, following a surge in March as producers rushed to adjust ahead of new tariffs. Data from Germany, France, and Spain have already shown signs of weakening momentum, with soft April figures hinting at a broader slowdown across the region. While a weak print is unlikely to have a major impact on the euro, it remains a valuable gauge of overall economic activity, offering insight into whether Lagarde’s recent hawkish stance is justified.

Geopolitical tensions and surging oil prices drag on pound

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

The British pound has weakened across the board, pressured by surging oil prices and plunging risk sentiment amid the Iran-Israel geopolitical flare-up. Sterling’s high beta to risk makes it particularly sensitive to global uncertainty, prompting investors to sell GBP in favour of safe-haven assets like the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, gold, and sovereign bonds. However, the US dollar has also absorbed a significant share of haven flows too, hence the sharp reversal from fresh 3-year highs clocked yesterday.

Beyond geopolitics, GBP/USD’s bullish outlook in the first half of 2025 was supported by stronger-than-expected UK economic performance, but recent data has disappointed. The UK-US economic surprise differential has narrowed, making it harder for GBP/USD to sustain gains above $1.36. If bearish sentiment on the dollar persists, fresh highs for GBP/USD remain possible, but UK domestic growth and fiscal risks could weigh on GBP/EUR until the UK’s economic outlook improves.

Looking ahead, the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to hold rates at 4.25% next week, but money markets have already priced in two additional rate cuts by year-end, following lackluster UK data. This has kept sterling’s gains in check, reinforcing investor caution.

For now, though, geopolitics remains the dominant market driver, with traders hesitant to hold risk assets over the weekend due to uncertainty surrounding further escalation. If oil prices continue soaring, we expect sterling weakness to persist.

Oil up almost 13% over the past 7 days

Table: 7-day currency trends and trading ranges

Key global risk events

Calendar: June 9-13

All times are in ET

Have a question? [email protected]

*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.

U.S. stock futures are dropping and oil futures are jumping following Israel’s attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities and military leadership; Adobe (ADBE) posts better-than-expected fiscal second-quarter results; preliminary consumer sentiment data for June is expected to have risen from May’s reading; Oracle (ORCL) shares are pulling back from all-time highs in premarket trading; and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) unveils its latest artificial intelligence (AI) chips. Here’s what investors need to know today.

1. US Stock Futures Drop, Oil Spikes on Iran-Israel Conflict

U.S. stock futures are falling and oil prices are spiking Friday as Israel’s attacks on Iran’s nuclear program and military leadership are sparking worries of a broader Middle East conflict and are driving investors into safe-haven assets. Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq futures are 1% lower, and S&P 500 futures are down 1.2%. Oil prices are jumping more than 8%. Gold is rising roughly 1% to around $3,433 an ounce. The 10-year Treasury yield is little changed at 4.37%. The U.S. dollar, which hit a three-year-low Thursday, is gaining ground against the euro, pound, and yen. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is falling almost 2% to trade below $105,000.

2. Adobe Reports Better-Than-Expected Results, Lifts Outlook

Adobe (ADBE) delivered better-than-estimated fiscal second-quarter results on record-high sales and raised its full-year revenue and profit projections. However, the Creative Cloud developer’s shares are slipping more than 3% in premarket trading, and Citi analysts called the results “fairly straight down the middle” and noted that “overall AI usage appears to be leveling off.”

3. June Consumer Sentiment Data Due

June consumer sentiment data is due at 10:00 a.m. ET today, and analysts expect an improvement from May’s reading, according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. President Donald Trump’s tariffs will be a key topic in the report, which dropped for four straight months before leveling out in May. The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is expected to show a preliminary reading of 54.0, an improvement from the May reading of 52.2.

4. Oracle Stock Edges Lower After Hitting All-Time High

Oracle (ORCL) shares are pulling back slightly in premarket trading after soaring 13% to an all-time high Thursday, a day after the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter results and sales outlook sailed past Wall Street expectations. The enterprise software giant said it expects “dramatically higher” revenue growth this fiscal year, driven by strength in its cloud infrastructure segment, a bullish projection that prompted analysts to increase price targets.

5. AMD Unveils Next-Gen AI Chips

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) unveiled its next-generation MI400 chips at its “Advancing AI” event Thursday. The chip isn’t expected to launch until 2026, but it already has some high-profile customers, including ChatGPT maker OpenAI. The event also brought the launch of AMD’s Instinct MI350 Series GPUs, which it claims offers four times more computing power than its previous generation. AMD shares, which entered Friday down 2% this year, are 2.5% lower in premarket trading.

Global stocks are falling and oil prices are spiking Friday as Israel’s attacks on Iran’s nuclear program and military leadership sparked worries of a broader Middle East conflict and drove investors into safe-haven assets.

Iran reportedly has launched more than a hundred drones in response. Secretary of State Marco Rubio distanced the U.S. from the attacks and warned Iran not to target American forces.

“Tonight, Israel took unilateral action against Iran. We are not involved in strikes against Iran and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region,” Rubio said in a post on X. “Israel advised us that they believe this action was necessary for its self-defense. President Trump and the Administration have taken all necessary steps to protect our forces and remain in close contact with our regional partners. Let me be clear: Iran should not target U.S. interests or personnel.”

U.S. stock futures are dropping, with Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq futures 1.1% lower, and S&P 500 futures down 1.4%. The Stoxx Europe 600 index is almost 1% lower, while Japan’s Nikkei and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, where the biggest Chinese companies are listed, finished down 0.9% and 0.6%, respectively.

Oil prices jumped more than 6% and the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.35%, while the flight from risk drove safe-haven gold up more than 1% to around $3,440 per troy ounce level. The U.S. dollar, which hit a three-year-low Thursday, gained ground against the euro, pound, and yen. 

“The developments could provide a timely test of the US dollar’s traditional safe haven appeal after it hit fresh year to date lows yesterday prior to Israel’s military strikes,” MUFG senior currency analyst Lee Hardman wrote. 

Fintech firm Chime opened at $43 per share in its Nasdaq trading debut Thursday, well above its initial public offering (IPO) price of $27 per share. Shares recently were trading hands at $40.50, up 50%.

The online banking startup, which started trading under the ticket symbol “CHYM, raised around $700 million from the sale of 25.9 million shares in its IPO, while existing investors sold about 6.1 million shares for nearly $165 million.

Last week, Chime said the IPO price was expected to be between $24 and $26 per share.

IPO Market Has Been Picking Up Recently

Shares of companies that debuted recently, like USDC stable coin issuer Circle Internet Group (CRCL), Israel-based retail trading platform eToro (ETOR), and space and defense tech firm Voyager Technologies (VOYG), all soared in their first day of trading.

Deal volumes are also at a multi-year high. So far in 2025, U.S. IPOs have raised $26.5 billion, the largest level since 2021, when a record $147.6 billion of funds were raised in the same year-to-date period, according to Dealogic data.

In its prospectus last month, Chime reported 2024 revenue of $1.67 billion and a $62.2 million loss from operations. The company noted that it averaged $251 in revenue for each of its 8.6 million active members.

UPDATE—June 12, 2025: This article has been updated to reflect that shares have started trading. 

Oracle shares rallied to a record high on Thursday, moving co-founder Larry Ellison ahead of two other tech multi-billionaires for the spot of the world’s second-richest person.

According to Forbes’ billionaire index, Ellison’s gain of at least $26 billion from Thursday’s rally moved him past Amazon (AMZN) founder Jeff Bezos and Meta Platforms (META) CEO Mark Zuckerberg, putting his net worth at $243 billion.

Zuckerberg is worth roughly $239 billion, surpassing Bezos, who stands at $227 billion, according to Forbes. None of the three founders come close to Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk’s net worth above $400 billion.

The estimated net worth of all four men depends to varying degrees on the stock prices of their respective companies, depending on how much of the company they still own. Ellison owns 41% of Oracle (ORCL), according to Forbes, and is still its chief technology officer and board chair, but stepped away from the chief executive officer role in 2014.

Oracle shares rose Thursday after the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter results topped estimates after the bell Wednesday. Analysts cheered the latest results, with several lifting their price targets for Oracle stock after hearing the company’s “stunning” growth projections.

Oracle shares closed 13% higher, earlier hitting a record high of above $202.

Written by the Market Insights Team

Double blow to USD: bearish forces at play

Antonio Ruggiero – FX & Macro Strategist

A double hit of disappointing trade news and heightened Fed rate cut expectations fueled a broad-based selloff in the dollar this week. The greenback fell against all G10 currencies, with the Bloomberg Dollar Index sliding as much as 0.8% yesterday – one of its weakest levels in three years. Overnight, the greenback received some support – DXY up 0.4% – as traders moved toward safe-haven demand sparked by heightened tensions in the Middle East.

Soft inflation data has reinforced expectations of further easing. Core CPI rose just 0.1% month-over-month, while PPI remained muted at +0.1% for May, pushing traders to price in additional rate cuts ahead of the Fed’s June 18 meeting.

Despite this, the dollar still holds a yield advantage against its peers, leading some to argue that the sharp decline may be overdone. However, we suspect that recent speculations over the next Fed chair has likely amplified the bearish move. Whether Bessent or another Trump appointee takes the helm, a more dovish stance seems inevitable – reinforcing the case that downward pressure on the dollar could prove more lasting than anticipated.

On the trade front, uncertainty remains high. No concrete news on a US-China deal, while Trump’s new threat of expanding steel tariffs starting June 23 on imported “steel derivative products”, were inevitable contributors to the dollar’s extended decline.

Sentiment vs. fundamentals: the euro’s fragile rise

Antonio Ruggiero – FX & Macro Strategist

The euro’s rally gained momentum this week, with EUR/USD comfortably surpassing April’s highs of $1.515 and briefly testing the $1.16 level—its highest since October 2021. However, the pair pared back some of its gains during Asian trading as geopolitical tensions escalated following Israel’s preemptive attack on Iran, amplifying risk-off sentiment.

While the broader trend remains bullish, signs of short-term exhaustion have emerged throughout May, with spot prices falling below shorter-term moving averages. The narrative remains clear: broader US sentiment is dictating euro price action. When positive trade developments emerge, as seen in May with the US negotiations with the EU and China, euro momentum fades. When sentiment deteriorates, as witnessed this week, the currency strengthens.

This latest push higher was amplified by a narrower rate gap favoring the euro, following soft inflation prints from the US. Although rate differentials have played a smaller role in driving EUR/USD recently, their impact was more pronounced this week as dovish Fed expectations combined with a hawkish ECB stance last week.

Meanwhile, Eurozone industrial activity for April, released later today, is expected to have slowed significantly, following a surge in March as producers rushed to adjust ahead of new tariffs. Data from Germany, France, and Spain have already shown signs of weakening momentum, with soft April figures hinting at a broader slowdown across the region. While a weak print is unlikely to have a major impact on the euro, it remains a valuable gauge of overall economic activity, offering insight into whether Lagarde’s recent hawkish stance is justified.

Geopolitical tensions and surging oil prices drag on pound

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

The British pound has weakened across the board, pressured by surging oil prices and plunging risk sentiment amid the Iran-Israel geopolitical flare-up. Sterling’s high beta to risk makes it particularly sensitive to global uncertainty, prompting investors to sell GBP in favour of safe-haven assets like the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, gold, and sovereign bonds. However, the US dollar has also absorbed a significant share of haven flows too, hence the sharp reversal from fresh 3-year highs clocked yesterday.

Beyond geopolitics, GBP/USD’s bullish outlook in the first half of 2025 was supported by stronger-than-expected UK economic performance, but recent data has disappointed. The UK-US economic surprise differential has narrowed, making it harder for GBP/USD to sustain gains above $1.36. If bearish sentiment on the dollar persists, fresh highs for GBP/USD remain possible, but UK domestic growth and fiscal risks could weigh on GBP/EUR until the UK’s economic outlook improves.

Looking ahead, the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to hold rates at 4.25% next week, but money markets have already priced in two additional rate cuts by year-end, following lackluster UK data. This has kept sterling’s gains in check, reinforcing investor caution.

For now, though, geopolitics remains the dominant market driver, with traders hesitant to hold risk assets over the weekend due to uncertainty surrounding further escalation. If oil prices continue soaring, we expect sterling weakness to persist.

Oil up almost 13% over the past 7 days

Table: 7-day currency trends and trading ranges

Key global risk events

Calendar: June 9-13

All times are in BST

Have a question? [email protected]

*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.

Presales for the limited-edition 250th Anniversary U.S. Army 2025-W Proof American Silver Eagle begin today, June 13, at noon ET from the United States Mint.

Struck at the U.S. Mint’s West Point facility in one ounce of .999 fine silver, the new Silver Eagle features a special privy mark honoring the 250th anniversary of the U.S. Army, which falls on Saturday, June 14. Mintage for the coin is limited to 100,000.

Aside from the privy mark, the coin shares the same specifications and imagery as the standard annual proof Silver Eagle, the 2025 version of which debuted in January. This includes the classic “Walking Liberty” design by Adolph A. Weinman, featured on the obverse (heads side).

The historic design, originally seen on the 1916–1947 half dollar, portrays Liberty in full stride, enveloped in folds of the flag, with her right hand extended and branches of laurel and oak in her left. It was adopted for the American Silver Eagle series in 1986 and has appeared on the coins ever since. In 2021, the Mint introduced subtle modifications to the image, using historical assets and modern technology to more closely reflect Weinman’s original vision.

Obverse inscriptions include “LIBERTY,” “IN GOD WE TRUST,” and “2025.” The special privy mark, which incorporates elements of the U.S. Army’s official seal, appears to the right of Liberty.

The reverse (tails side) design, introduced in 2021, features an eagle as it approaches a landing, carrying an oak branch as if to add it to a nest. Created by artist Emily Damstra and sculpted by Michael Gaudioso, this design replaced John Mercanti’s original heraldic eagle, which had appeared on the coin since the series launched in 1986. Inscriptions on the reverse read “UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,” “E PLURIBUS UNUM,” “1 OZ. FINE SILVER,” and “ONE DOLLAR.”

As an anti-counterfeiting measure, each coin includes a reeded edge variation.

Coin Specifications

Ordering, Price, and More 2025 Privy-Marked Silver Eagles

Orders for the 250th Anniversary United States Army 2025-W Proof American Silver Eagle will be accepted directly from the U.S. Mint through its American Eagle product page.

For the first 24 hours, the coin will have an initial household order limit of one, recently reduced from three. Shipments are expected to begin July 29.

The coin is priced at $105, reflecting a $10 increase over the standard proof Silver Eagle issued earlier this year, which remains available and has recorded sales of 265,950 through June 8.

In addition to this release, three other limited-edition 2025-W Proof American Silver Eagles are scheduled to launch later this year, each featuring a unique privy mark. These include Navy and Marine Corps editions, to be produced at the San Francisco and Philadelphia Mints, respectively, in recognition of their 250th anniversaries on October 13 and November 10. The other coin, set for release on August 20, is listed as featuring a “Laser Beam” privy mark.