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Investors are eager to spend trillions on energy transition, but too much money is piling into mature projects, while high-risk innovations struggle to attract backing.     

Will there be enough money in the world to save the planet? The answer to this urgent question is not straightforward.

Big-picture prognosticators name staggering sums needed to finance a greener future—and equally daunting shortfalls in securing them. Investment in the energy transition must more than double to $4.5 trillion annually to reach internationally agreed 2030 emissions targets, according to European financier Allianz. The US-based Boston Consulting Group (BCG) estimates an $18 trillion net-zero “capital gap,” in a late 2023 report.

The outlook for 2025 appears even more challenging. US President Donald Trump has reclaimed the office, vowing to dismantle the generous green subsidies his predecessor, former President Joe Biden, had advanced through the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)—and to “drill, baby, drill” for oil and gas. High energy costs and farmer protests are eroding support for Europe’s ambitious transition agenda, while Canada is poised to roll back its precedent-setting carbon tax.

In financial markets, stubbornly high interest rates are keeping the cost of capital-intensive energy infrastructure elevated for longer. Meanwhile, a surge in data center construction, driven by AI, is supercharging electricity-demand projections—prompting a return to fossil fuel dependency. “One of these data centers can take as much power as a small city,” says Richard de los Reyes, a portfolio manager at T. Rowe Price’s New Era Fund. “There’s an increasing recognition that a lot of that will have to come from natural gas.”

Green Investing’s Mismatched Realities

The view is quite different, though, in the financial trenches, among practitioners who are raising capital and structuring deals. They worry about too much capital chasing too few green investments. “I’m still a true believer that the megatrends of decarbonization and digitalization will transform the way we live,” says Alex Leung, head of infrastructure research and strategy at UBS Asset Management. “But [these sectors] are getting to be crowded trades.”

How can both be true? The renewable energy universe is increasingly divided from a financial perspective. There is no shortage of capital, but much of it is concentrated in a few mature green technologies, while more-innovative or unproven sectors struggle to attract funding.

On one side are established, cost-effective technologies that investors can back with a reasonable expectation of a steady, decades-long payout. Solar and onshore wind power have moved into this category, as economies of scale and an equipment boom in China have driven the costs of these energy sources below fossil fuels.

On the other side are technologies that show promise but not yet profit, such as carbon capture or green hydrogen; or those with uncertain risks and high costs, like offshore wind. These projects still rely on deep-pocketed corporate backers or government support to reach commercial viability.

“Everyone wants to be part of the energy transition on paper,” says Antoine Saint Olive, global head of infrastructure and energy finance at Natixis Capital and Investment Banking in Paris. “But when you have a real deal on your desk, in many cases you are talking about new technologies.”

This mismatch—between an abundance of capital for well-established projects and an undersupply for higher-risk innovations—helps explain why trillions are still needed, even as investors complain of crowded trades.

Perhaps the most critical deals are in a border zone between proven and new technologies: in fast-developing storage systems for solar and wind power, and in adjustments to grids needed to transmit it. Renewable-generation investments will eventually hit a wall without upgraded delivery to the customer, and in some places they may have already.

As a rule of thumb, existing grids can cope until renewables reach 15% of their input, says Rebecca Fitz, a BCG partner and founding member of the firm’s Center for Energy Impact. Some parts of Europe are above 50%, creating “a bottleneck in power market design,” she says.

Europe’s patchwork of national grids and regulators poses special challenges to moving green energy from where it’s best produced—Spain and Portugal for solar, the Netherlands for wind—to where it’s needed, adds Stef Beusmans, an associate partner at Sustainable Capital Group in Amsterdam. “Different national support schemes make it harder for Europe to really fast-track deployment of clean energy,” he says.

Energy Transition Financing At A Crossroads

The enormous scope and complexity of the energy transition present both challenges and opportunities to the venerable, low-profile world of infrastructure finance, which absorbs about 4% of global capital, according to UBS. Plain vanilla deals are rare in this area. Bond underwriters and traders have rating agencies to guide them and liquid markets to distribute risk, but infrastructure investors must structure transactions individually and often hold the risk for the long haul. “Structuring and closing a deal could take up to a year,” Leung says. “Many infrastructure assets require active management after that. This isn’t just clipping a coupon.”

Green investments make the game only harder, says Marta Perez, head of the Americas infrastructure debt team at Allianz Capital Partners. “Traditional project finance models, which were designed around more-predictable long-term assets like fossil fuel power plants, need to evolve for the variable, often decentralized nature of renewable energy systems,” she explains.

One threat that infrastructure pros view as possibly overrated is Trump. The sheer duration of energy investments—far exceeding a single presidential term—makes policy swings less impactful. UBS research predicts that Trump will also struggle to repeal or gut the IRA. Roughly 70% of US renewable projects under development are in “red” states, which voted for Trump, Leung and his colleagues note. Eighteen Republicans in the House of Representatives already signed a letter opposing repeal, more than enough to be decisive in the narrowly divided chamber. But the impact of this resistance is hard to accurately measure, as Trump has been routinely bypassing Congress.

Texas, firmly in the Republican camp politically, nonetheless leads the US in wind and solar power. Nationwide, more than 70% of Americans support more wind and solar energy, according to Pew Research. UBS’ base-case scenario is that Trump will tweak the IRA rather than dismantle it, allowing Republican-led states to complete near-term renewable projects while still giving the president a political victory.

China Dominates Green Investing

The US, the world’s biggest economy, is not the leader in green investment. That distinction belongs to China, which last year sunk $818 billion into clean energy—more than the US, EU, and United Kingdom combined—according to CarbonCredits.com. Solar capacity in the People’s Republic jumped by 45.2% in 2024. China is also miles ahead in plans for nuclear power, which could be making a comeback in the US, too, if not Europe. Nuclear power emits no carbon, though it brings other well-known risks.

China’s leap forward in renewables is largely financed domestically, so global private capital looks elsewhere. Europe remains committed to a renewables surge to partly replace Russian natural gas imports, which Russian President Vladimir Putin cut off in response to Ukraine-related sanctions. The EU is also betting on more liquefied natural gas, but is still investing 10 times as much in renewables as in fossil fuels, the European Investment Bank (EIB) reports. The bloc’s total energy-transition investment jumped by one-third in 2023 to $360 billion and is expected to keep rising to meet 2030 carbon-reduction targets.

Other nations are also stepping up. India’s renewable capacity surged to nearly half the US level last year, with plans to triple by 2030. Six major solar developers in India have “successfully attracted investments from diverse sources, including foreign institutional investors from North America, Europe, and the Middle East,” S&P Global reports.

Brazil added a record 10.9 GW of power capacity last year, nearly 85% of it from renewables. Saudi Arabia is supporting the world’s largest and most ambitious green hydrogen project, near Neom, the kingdom’s “city of the future,” with $8.4 billion in promised investment, according to Neom. The goal is to split water molecules into their oxygen and hydrogen components using electric current produced from renewable sources, then store the hydrogen as a fuel source. Hot on their heels is the Saudis’ neighbor, the United Arab Emirates, leveraging its abundant sunshine for large-scale renewables projects.

Green Energy Has Plenty Of Investors

Capital for renewable energy is not drying up either. As populations age across the developed world and pension assets grow, managers look harder for investments that can match their long-term liabilities, Leung says. Funds in Australia and Canada, whose pension pools punch above their macroeconomic weight, are shifting up to 20% of their portfolios into infrastructure, he adds.

Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) principles continue to motivate big-ticket investors globally, Natixis’ Saint Olive points out. Banks, which provide at least as much infrastructure funding as institutional investors, still want to “greenify their balance sheets.” At least, banks outside the US do. “Banks and sponsors in the rest of the world still have ESG ambitions,” Saint Olive says. “That’s not going to collapse because there is a new president in one country.”

Private equity investments in green energy are also growing, from next to nothing before the pandemic to $26 billion globally by 2023, according to the EIB. Given the private equity model of leveraging up equity holdings, the money at work could be several times that figure.

Private equity players in the US are particularly focused on onshore wind generation, as solar becomes trendier and Texas officials push legislation that advantages fossil fuels, says BCG’s Fitz. “Private equity is paying a premium for wind assets,” she explains. “They view wind as a critical part of the energy picture going forward.”

Funding the global energy transition remains a monumental challenge. The US interstate highway system—one of the great infrastructure projects of the 20th century—cost $129 billion ($389 billion adjusted for inflation) when completed in 1991, according to the US Department of Transportation. That is a small slice of just one year’s capital needs for green power. The US highway system used proven technology and relied on the federal budget.

“Renewables require not just infrastructure, but also a complete rethinking of how energy is produced, stored, and distributed,” as Allianz’s Perez puts it. Governments, strained by 21st century social commitments, want to offload as much cost as possible to the private sector, China partially excepted.

Most renewable-transition estimates exclude the enormous investment required in mining the metals that will build batteries, grids, and turbines, Saint Olive notes. Mining is a “fully merchant business” too dependent on fluctuating prices to offer fixed, infrastructure-style returns; and it earns investors no green points for regulatory or public relations purposes, he adds. “Many banks don’t see the mining business positively from an ESG perspective,” he says. “They would rather let others finance it.”

Energy-Transition Train Is Already Moving

All the same, the global energy transition is not only continuing but accelerating, whatever the rhetoric coming from the White House. Infrastructure investors need to be part of the “complete rethinking” of a lower-carbon future. “The good-ol’ fully contracted project is getting harder to find,” Saint Olive observes.

But infrastructure investors are also used to designing bespoke solutions for a changing project landscape. “The beautiful part of our profession is that for the same asset you can have 20 different finance structures,” Saint Olive says. “In the US, you may have bank loans for construction, then turn to capital markets. European plants could rely on a 10-year power-purchase agreement. In the Middle East, you can get very long-term financing: construction plus 25 years.”

The critical question isn’t whether the transition will happen—but whether it will happen fast enough to avert ecological catastrophe. Private finance looks set to do its part, if engineers and governments can combine to deliver viable investments. “If projects are generating 20% returns, more capital will come in,” UBS’ Leung states. “Economic viability is a big part of the equation, but not always part of the discussion.”

Another United States Mint series comes to a close with today’s noon ET release of the 2025 First Amendment to the United States Constitution Platinum Proof Coin – Right To Petition. Each is struck from 1 ounce of 99.95% fine platinum at the U.S. Mint’s West Point facility and carries a face value of $100.

This coin is the final issue in a five-coin series that began in 2021. The series highlights the five freedoms enshrined in the First Amendment: religion, speech, press, assembly, and petition. It draws inspiration from the Amendment’s full text:

“Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.”

To symbolize these freedoms, the series features designs illustrating the life cycle of an oak tree, from seedling to mature oak, representing the foundational role of the First Amendment in shaping the nation.

The now-completed series includes:

Recent sales figures for the series show 9,884 of the 2021 coin sold, 9,941 of the 2022, 8,494 of the 2023, and 5,106 of the 2024 coin.

All five obverse (heads side) designs in the series were created by Artistic Infusion Program (AIP) Designer Donna Weaver and sculpted by U.S. Mint Chief Engraver Joseph Menna.

The 2025 Right to Petition Platinum Proof Coin features a mature oak tree along with inscriptions reading “WITH THE RIGHT TO PETITION LIBERTY ENDURES,” “E PLURIBUS UNUM,” “IN GOD WE TRUST,” and “2025.”

A common reverse (tails side) design appears on all five coins in the First Amendment series and was also used in the 2018-2020 Preamble to the Declaration of Independence Platinum Series. It depicts an eagle in flight clutching an olive branch, symbolizing peace. The design was created by AIP Designer Patricia Lucas-Morris and sculpted by Medallic Artist Don Everhart.

Reverse inscriptions include “UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,” “$100,” “1 OZ.,” and “.9995 PLATINUM.” A “W” mintmark also appears, indicating production at the West Point Mint

Coin Specifications

 

Previous Proof American Platinum Eagle Programs

Proof American Platinum Eagles first appeared in 1997 and have seen multiple theme and design changes, including:

• Portrait of Liberty (1997)
• Vistas of Liberty (1998 to 2002)
• Foundations of Democracy (2006 to 2008)
• Preamble to the Constitution (2009 to 2014)
• Torches of Liberty (2015 and 2016)
• a return to the Portrait of Liberty design in 2017 to mark the 20th anniversary of the program
• Preamble to the Declaration of Independence Series (2018 to 2020)

Scheduled to launch in 2026 as part of the nation’s Semiquincentennial, the United States Mint will introduce the Charters of Freedom Platinum Proof Coin Series, concluding in 2028.

Ordering, Price, Mintage and Limits

2025 First Amendment to the United States Constitution Platinum Proof Coin — Right to Petition is available for order directly from the U.S. Mint’s catalog of platinum coins.

Pricing, now at $1,545, follows the Mint’s precious metal product pricing structure and may be adjusted weekly based on market fluctuations. The coin has a mintage limit of 9,000, with an initial household order limit of three.

Kroger (KR) shares are falling more than 1% Monday morning after the grocery chain said that CEO and Chairman Rodney McMullen has resigned after a probe on his personal conduct.

McMullen is stepping down “following a Board investigation of his personal conduct that, while unrelated to the business, was inconsistent with Kroger’s Policy on Business Ethics,” the company said. 

Kroger said it “was made aware of certain personal conduct by Mr. McMullen” on Feb. 21 “and immediately retained outside independent counsel to conduct an investigation.” Kroger also said McMullen’s conduct wasn’t related to its “financial performance, operations or reporting, and it did not involve any Kroger associates.” 

Kroger declined to comment further Monday.

Lead Director Ronald Sargent was appointed board chair and interim CEO, according to a news release.

McMullen joined Kroger in 1978 as a part-time stock clerk in Lexington, Kentucky, according to his biography on the Kroger website, and became CEO in 2014.

Several CEOs in recent years have lost their jobs for personal relationships or other issues that ran afoul of company policies. According to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, seven CEOs left due to allegations of misconduct in 2024 through October last year.

Shares of Kroger, which is scheduled to report earnings Thursday, are up about 30% in the past 12 months.

Hello, Reader.

Much of the United States is still zipping up coats and fitting on gloves. And as it were, Punxsutawney Phil saw his groundhog-shaped shadow in Pennsylvania earlier this month, predicting six more weeks of winter.

We’re now about halfway through the superstitious forecast, which means that nature will soon be gearing up for its rendition of The Beatles’ classic, “Here Comes the Sun.”

The song’s famous lyrics may resonate with you folks in frostier regions, where “it’s been a long, cold, lonely winter.” But the sun will soon come again, and “I say, ‘It’s alright!’”

This sentiment also applies to solar stocks.

It’s true… a dark cloud has been hanging over the solar industry.

After President Trump won reelection in November, solar stocks experienced a selloff over worries that he would repeal the Inflation Reduction Act. This would halt the flow of loans to the solar industry from the Department of Energy and grants from the Environmental Protection Agency’s “Solar for All” program. Indeed, since assuming office, Trump has paused distributions from the act.

And yet… solar stocks performed far better during the first Trump administration than they did during the Biden administration.

A repeat performance may be imminent. Solar stocks may soon catch fire once again.

So in today’s Smart Money, let’s take a brief tour of the recent past and explain why President Trump’s return to office might signal bright prospects for the solar industry.

Then, I’ll share how you can capitalize on this solar resurgence…

The Trump Solar Paradox

During the first Trump administration, U.S. solar power capacity doubled. Then it doubled again during the Biden administration.

And now, based on the latest forecasts from the U.S. Solar Energy Industries Association, solar capacity will come close to doubling again during the second Trump administration.

In other words, the solar power industry does not seem to care which party occupies the White House or Congress.

It simply continues to grow… and do so at an exponential rate. Last year, the solar industry installed about 40 gigawatts of new capacity, which is more than the total capacity that existed 10 years ago.

No other domestic energy source is growing faster. Last year, solar installations accounted for a record-high 64% of all new U.S. electricity-generating capacity – up from 36% three years ago and 23% six years ago. This renewable energy source now produces enough electricity annually to power one-quarter of all U.S. homes.

Another reason to believe solar power will continue to thrive during the current Trump administration is that growth is the path of least resistance. The U.S. needs more power, and solar is one of the cheapest ways to get it.

Therefore, even if Trump enacts policies that encourage oil and gas development, he will not likely enact policies that actively discourage solar development.

And the nation’s soaring demand for energy – led by the data center construction boom we need for AI – will require an all-hands-on-deck solution. It will need contributions from every major energy-generation source, from nuclear to oil and gas to – you guessed it – solar.

A New Solar Landscape

Moving from political rhetoric to boots-on-the-ground policies, the Trump administration’s initial actions provide more “pros” than “cons” for the solar industry.

As I mentioned above, Trump has paused distributions from the Inflation Reduction Act.

However, Trump is also eager to fast-track energy projects of all types – both by removing regulatory obstacles and by providing direct government support.

These efforts are great news for the U.S. solar industry, because the main growth constraints it faces are physical, not political. Like most of the power sources in the United States, solar installations often struggle to overcome lengthy permitting processes and grid bottlenecks that can delay projects for years.

The National Energy Emergency Act that Trump signed into law last month seeks to eliminate all obstacles to what it calls “energy security.” In the words of the act…

The integrity and expansion of our Nation’s energy infrastructure — from coast to coast — is an immediate and pressing priority for the protection of the United States’ national and economic security…

This would create jobs and economic prosperity for Americans forgotten in the present economy…

Without immediate remedy, this situation will dramatically deteriorate in the near future due to a high demand for energy and natural resources to power the next generation of technology. The United States’ ability to remain at the forefront of technological innovation depends on a reliable supply of energy and the integrity of our Nation’s electrical grid…

In light of these findings, I hereby declare a national emergency.

Although Trump clearly intends for fossil fuels to take the lead in delivering energy security, solar will also play an essential role, even if government subsidies disappear forever.

According to recent data from Ernst & Young, solar power has become the cheapest source of energy in most locations. For example, the levelized cost of solar energy is at least 29% lower than the cheapest fossil fuel option, including natural gas combined cycle plants. 

In other words, solar power is no longer a quirky, fringy obsession of “tree-huggers.” It has joined the club of legitimate, economically viable energy sources.

In 2019, I recommended Daqo New Energy Corp. (DQ), a company that makes and sells polysilicon for solar panels. And a little more than a year after that recommendation, Daqo delivered a 148% gain.

I believe that solar stocks are presenting another compelling opportunity, just like they did during the first Trump administration. And at Fry’s Investment Report, we’re positioned to capitalize on the solar sector’s sunny transformation.

In fact, I’ve recently added a promising solar investment to our portfolio that’s primed for significant growth. To learn more about this opportunity, click here to learn how to join me at Fry’s Investment Report.

Regards,

Eric Fry

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