All posts by PARKERYL

Right now, the U.S. economy is slowing rapidly. 

According to the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model, “the estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -1.5% on February 28, down from 2.3% on February 19. The nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth fell from -0.41 percentage points to -3.70 percentage points, while the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth fell from 2.3% to 1.3%.”

And as recent data from ADP’s employment report shows, employers added just 77,000 jobs in February, far below January’s upwardly revised 186,000 and below the 148,000 estimate.

All this weak data and ongoing economic uncertainty has kept the stock market in volatile territory. 

As the following chart shows, the S&P 500 has endured near-constant up-and-down action for the past several months. In fact, just in the past five days, the index has fallen about 3%. It has tested and broken its 100-day moving average (MA) and is now approaching a test of its 200-day MA.

With President Trump’s trade war with Mexico, Canada, and China looming large, things could get even worse in the coming months, potentially tipping the global economy into a recession and plunging stocks into a full-blown bear market. 

That’s the bad news. 

But here’s the good news. 

We actually see huge opportunities emerging amid all this economic uncertainty and stock market volatility. 

Follow me here…

Weak Economic Data Abounds

In our view, there’s no arguing that the U.S. economy is buckling under the pressure of policy uncertainty. No matter where you look, the data is weakening. 

Consumer sentiment has crashed, as shown by the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, which declined by 7.0 points in February. 

Consumer spending has slowed, with personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreasing $30.7 billion (0.2%) in January, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 

Inflation expectations have surged higher, from 5.2% to 6% in February. 

Business investment has slowed, down from $938 billion in Q3 of 2024 to $809 billion in Q4.

At the end of 2024, the U.S. economy was growing at a 2.3% clip. But based on real-time estimates from the Atlanta Fed, the economy is now contracting at a 2.8% clip. In other words, over the past two months, we’ve gone from steady growth in the U.S. economy (+2.3%) to meaningful contraction (-2.8%). 

That’s not good. 

And this slowdown to -2.8% GDP growth happened before the onset of a global trade war. 

Trump has enforced 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and has also levied additional tariffs on China. All three countries have responded with reciprocal tariffs of their own… meaning the global trade war has officially begun. 

According to calculations from Bloomberg Economics, all these tariffs will raise the average U.S. tariff rate from 2.3% to 11.5% – the highest it has been since World War II. 

Such a drastic rise in the average U.S. tariff rate will only further hinder economic growth.

Understanding the Risks to the Economy

According to estimates from the Fed, hiking the U.S. tariff rate from 2.3% to 11.5% would negatively impact the U.S. GDP growth by about 1.3%. 

We’re running at -2.8% GDP growth right now… before the trade war. And current tariffs already in place should knock that down another 1.3%… which means we’re looking at potentially -4.1% GDP growth. 

And that doesn’t even include any of the other tariffs Trump plans to enact over the next month. He’s said that he wants to implement 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, as well as 25% tariffs on cars, chips, and pharma goods. He is also planning to launch global reciprocal tariffs next month. 

If even just a portion of these threatened tariffs go into effect, that would negatively impact U.S. GDP growth by at least another 1%. If so, then with all these tariffs, we’re looking at a potential pathway to -5% GDP growth by the summer. 

By any and all metrics, that negative growth would be consistent with a recession. In fact, a -5% GDP would actually be consistent with a very bad recession – not a mild one. 

In other words, the global trade war – if it persists – could tip the U.S. economy into a recession by summer. 

Of course, if that happens, the stock market is likely to crash. 

Written by the Market Insights Team

A dumb thing to do

Kevin Ford –FX & Macro Strategist

The Loonie remains on standby as U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick signals the possibility of tariff relief for Mexican and Canadian goods under North America’s free trade agreement, potentially as soon as today. This could be the shortest trade war ever or extend the uncertainty while the US administration make up their mind in relation to their trade policies with their closest trade allies. Currently, the Loonie has been fluctuating between 1.439 to 1.454. While dollar softness has provided some relief to the USD/CAD, it remains on uncertain footing. FX Markets are closely watching for a possible policy pivot from President Trump, maintaining a cautious outlook.

While we wait on some news, it’s worth bringing back these two questions: what will be the economic impact, if they stay for long, and are these tariffs truly tied to fentanyl and immigration?

First, the Canadian Chamber of Commerce published a report modeling the potential economic fallout. Broadly speaking, tariffs not only reduce real incomes but also distort prices and intensify inflationary pressures. Most critically, the longer they persist, the greater the harm for both nations. From a macro standpoint, tariffs make minimal practical sense. As the Wall Street Journal fittingly described, this may well be the “dumbest trade war in history.” Consider the auto industry, for example—it’s so deeply integrated across the region that some vehicles cross borders up to eight times during assembly. The CUSMA/USMCA agreement, negotiated about five years ago, was designed to strengthen economic ties and was once praised as a “historic win” by Trump. Now it’s being deemed insufficient.

Second, are these tariffs really about fentanyl and immigration? The short answer is no. Data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection clearly shows that Canada contributes a negligible share to America’s fentanyl imports. Furthermore, immigration challenges are predominantly centered on the southwest border, as the statistics reveal.

So, what’s next? Canada and Mexico plan to challenge the tariffs under USMCA rules but resolving the dispute could take time. During Trump’s first term, he imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum and threatened the auto sector to force a NAFTA renegotiation. In response, Canada retaliated with higher tariffs on U.S. steel, aluminum, and various other goods. It took nearly two years from Trump’s election to finalize the USMCA. Similarly, in 2018, tariffs on Canadian solar products weren’t lifted until two years later, when they were found to violate USMCA terms.

Prime Minister Trudeau has vowed to get the tariffs lifted as quickly as possible. He also emphasized that picking fights with friends and allies is, in his words, a very dumb thing to do. If the tariffs persist beyond a few weeks, Canada and Mexico may push for an early renegotiation of CUSMA/USMCA. The first scheduled USMCA review between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada is set for summer 2026. Let’s see what happens in the next few hours.

EUR: soars to 16-week high

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

The euro is up a whopping 2.5% versus the US dollar this week, erasing last week’s losses and more and hitting its highest level ($1.0640) since November. The playbook until now has been that rising tariff tensions were bad for the common currency as the EU would be targeted next by Trump. However, with investors more focussed on the negative implications for the US economy in an already softer US economic backdrop, the dollar has been the biggest loser of these tariff measures so far.

There is a realisation that the US dollar must adjust to a new reality of higher domestic prices and weaker growth, owing to Trump’s tariff measures. It’s losing its safe haven appeal it seems. Moreover, the dovish recalibrations of Fed policy has pushed the Eurozone-US real rate differential to its highest since September, having hit a 1-year low back in December just two weeks before EUR/USD fell to its lowest level in two years. The euro might have the legs to rise even higher over next couple of weeks to bring it close to fair-value territory implied by real rate differentials. Plus, the news coming out of Brussels that the EU is looking to boost defence spending could raise economic growth prospects and reduce expectations of rate cuts by the ECB (European Central Bank).

The ECB meets on Thursday, with a 25-basis point cut baked into market pricing. But the governing council may introduce new language to suggest that further reductions to the policy rate beyond March are no longer a given. This might spur a re-pricing of the rate cuts that the markets have factored in and provide an even stronger tailwind for the euro.

The trade war has begun

Boris Kovacevic – Global Macro Strategist

The tit-for-tat trade war is officially underway. The US administration enacted new tariffs yesterday, raising duties on most Canadian and Mexican imports to 25% while doubling the existing 10% levy on Chinese goods to 20%. Retaliation was swift—Canada announced a phased tariff plan targeting approximately $100 billion worth of US goods, Mexico is expected to follow suit by the end of the week, and China imposed tariffs of up to 15% on select US products.

Until now, investors had grown complacent about tariff risks, reassured by Trump’s repeated delays and adjustments to the rollout. However, the latest round of levies signals a clear deterioration in trade relations, significantly increasing US recession risks. Investors on Polymarket have adjusted their outlook, accordingly, pushing the probability of the US economy contracting for two consecutive quarters this year from 23% last week to 37% today. This shift in sentiment is also evident in fixed-income markets, where expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have surged—markets now fully price in three rate cuts for the year.

Fears of a prolonged trade conflict and economic downturn have sent bond yields, the US dollar, and global equities tumbling. European markets, wary that the continent could be the next target for US tariffs, saw the STOXX 600 suffer its steepest daily loss (-2.1%) since August. While US equities pared some of their declines, they remain vulnerable. Treasury Secretary Bessent has reiterated the administration’s commitment to prioritizing Main Street over Wall Street, reinforcing concerns that the so-called “Trump put” may be far lower than initially expected. However, the confusion over the length and goal of Trump’s tariffs remains. Less than twelve hours after imposing these tariffs, did US Commerce Secretary Lutnik state that some of the levies might be taken back. Following the news flow and macro data remains critical.

GBP: Breaking through resistance barriers

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

The British pound is also surging higher against the US dollar amidst a slowdown in US economic data, eliminating the US ‘exceptionalism’ narrative and driving a convergence in US performance with elsewhere. GBP/USD has broken above its 200-day and 200-week moving averages and is flirting with $1.28 this morning, bang on its 5-year average and almost 6% higher than its January low of $1.21.

With key resistance barriers to the upside broken, sentiment in GBP/USD has shifted from short-term bearish to bullish. We half expected GBP/USD to trend lower over the next month before staging such a rebound, but it seems Trump trades are starting to unravel quicker, and the dollar’s tariff risk premium is fading fast as the focus shifts from the inflation implications of policy and onto the growth risks for the US economy. There are also indications that interest rates in the UK will stay higher for longer. While Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said recently that four rates in 2025 may be the most likely path for the evolution of the policy rate, still-sticky consumer prices and private sector wage growth may pose a hurdle.

As a result, sterling looks like an appealing currency in the G10 space, surging higher against low yielding safe havens as well as high-beta trade-sensitive currencies. GBP/JPY, for example, is up 1.2% this week, eying ¥192.0. GBP/CAD is up 1.4%, has risen every single day since February 11 and clocked a near 9-year high yesterday. However, with the surge in demand for the euro, GBP/EUR has slipped back from €1.21 to trade closer to the €1.20 handle this morning.

Euro shines across the FX space

Table: 7-day currency trends and trading ranges

Key global risk events

Calendar: March 03-07

All times are in ET

Have a question? [email protected]

*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.

Latin America has them; the world wants them. But regional governments, and their citizens, are of two minds about the costs and benefits of further development. 

The increasing competition between world powers to secure the future of their manufacturing and technology supply chains is turning Latin America’s unique pool of critical minerals and rare-earth elements into a critical new battleground.

“The region has immense mineral wealth,” says Henry Ziemer, associate fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), “particularly in the form of copper and lithium, which are projected to skyrocket in demand, as well as more bespoke minerals such as niobium, used in aerospace and steel manufacturing; nickel; and rare-earth elements.”

Global demand for lithium could increase by a factor of 40 over the next 15 years, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects, and according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, it could outpace current global production output by 2028. The IEA also projects copper demand to soar by 40% over the next five years, outpacing current output by 2030. 

Lithium demand appears more vulnerable to changing dynamics in the green energy market, particularly as the Trump administration pulls the US out of the Paris Agreement and slashes carbon emission goals. But the same can’t be said of copper, which is “almost certain to remain high in demand as it will be critical for applications ranging from green energy and electric vehicles to the wiring needed to power AI data centers,” Ziemer argues.

Latin America holds some 60% of the world’s lithium reserves and another 40% of copper reserves, as per IEA data, and is home to seven of the world’s 10 most productive copper mines. Moreover, most of the world’s top-producing countries for the two metals are in the region, with Bolivia, Argentina, and Chile spearheading the list for lithium and Chile and Peru for copper.

Diversifying Supply Chains

As competition intensifies between China and the US, particularly in technology, and as global supplies of metals become further strained by increasing demand, diversifying mineral supply chains is becoming both a geopolitical and a corporate top priority.

According to UN research, China  holds over 40% of the global smelting and refining capacity for copper, lithium, rare earths, and cobalt. In Latin America, China accounted for a massive 65% of Chilean mineral exports in 2021, amounting to about 6% of Chile’s GDP, according to the World Bank.

“China’s market dominance allows it to exert significant influence over global pricing,” says Melissa Sanderson, board member of American Rare Earths, “whether through increasing or restricting exports of key commodities or by implementing other restrictions on key materials.”

One of the main reasons US President Donald Trump has expressed a desire to annex Canada is the country’s supply of metals and minerals, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said recently. “This is a strategic vulnerability for the US vis-à-vis China, as it is for much of the Western world, just given China’s control of the critical minerals around the world,” he observed.

In one of the first deeds of his second term, Trump declared a national energy emergency and promised to further decouple from China’s midstream supply chain. He followed this by announcing a 10% global tariff on Chinese goods, to which Beijing responded with—among other things—a curb on exports of minerals that it uses in its supply chain.

The intensifying risk of trade war is likewise prompting companies to decouple from their current mineral supply chains.

“Trump’s early signals have supply chains on edge, especially in industries that rely on manufacturing and critical materials,” says Tim Heneveld, country director for Pergolux in North America. “Companies are rethinking where they source materials, with many looking to secure alternative suppliers or shift production to regions with fewer geopolitical risks.”

Forging more resilient mineral supply chains will come at a cost, however, says Laura Dow, business director at CPG Sourcing, which specializes in sourcing materials and products with a focus on China. “Companies that prioritize a well-balanced, future-proof supply chain will be the ones best positioned for long-term success.” 

As Iggy Domagalski, CEO of Canadian industrial products and services provider Wajax, explains, “This dynamic has prompted the US and Canada to seek stronger partnerships in Latin America to diversify and secure their critical mineral supplies.”

Achieving Full Potential

While Latin America holds some of the world’s largest reserves of critical minerals and rare-earth elements, much of this is still untapped. Further development could prove a key solution for increasingly strained global supply chains. 

“The region, with a few exceptions, has so far not been able to realize its full potential in the value chains for critical minerals,” notes a co-authored research piece by Economist Impact and J.P. Morgan Private Bank, “and therefore, in those for clean energy and digital components.”

An ongoing challenge will be opening new mines, says Ziemer, “as global demand is projected to outpace production for key inputs like lithium and copper by 2030. Given that it can take years or even decades from staking a mining claim to first production, new projects need to be under development sooner rather than later or risk a worldwide supply crunch for several critical minerals.”

Local Governments: Correcting Historical Imbalances

Given these tensions, local populations distrust the sector’s push for development in the region, and particularly for the opening of new mines: a key requirement for output expansion.

“The increase in demand [for critical minerals] has come with a price, as many communities in Latin America find themselves bearing the environmental and physical costs of increased mining,” Ziemer notes.

This has pushed local governments to step in with increased state funding and more public-private partnerships, diversifying production and output supply chains.

The region’s largest economy, Brazil, which holds the world’s third-largest global reserves of nickel and rare-earth elements, has devoted $815 million to bolstering projects in the field “in the context of sustainable and technological development,” Aloizio Mercadante, president of  Brazil’s National Development Bank, said last month.

Chile’s government-operated copper mining company, Codelco, closed a 35-year agreement with lithium manufacturer Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile to codevelop the extensive lithium resources in the Salar de Atacama salt flat between 2025 and 2060, aiming to further domesticate the midstream lithium business.

In lithium-rich Argentina, the latest development has come from government, with the signing of a cooperation deal with the US to further diversify the latter’s long-term sourcing away from China.

The moves follow significant backlash against foreign mining projects in countries including Panama, Chile, and Bolivia, leading notably to the recent shutdown of the Cobre Panama mine due to environmental concerns and popular unrest.

“The incident further underscores that demand alone for critical minerals does not mean countries, or their citizens, are prepared to accept an unrestricted expansion of mining,” Ziemer cautions.

​Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at $100 not too long ago. If you had made investments back then, you would be sitting on life-changing returns today. As of February 14, 2025, Bitcoin is trading at about $97,991. That would make a $1,000 investment when BTC was $100, almost $1 million today. Although Bitcoin has already moved astronomically, fresh prospects are opening themselves that might redefine wealth in 2025. Chainlink (LINK) and Rexas Finance (RXS) are noteworthy cryptos. Rexas Finance (RXS) is a better alternative for big gains in 2025. If you missed Bitcoin (BTC) at $100, Rexas Finance (RXS) is priced cheaply at $0.20 after rising 580% from $0.030. In the presale, Rexas Finance offered 7x gains to early investors and is set to be the next 100x altcoin in 2025 as it gains adoption from top cryptocurrency investors. 

Rexas Finance (RXS) – The Future of Real-World Asset Tokenization

By integrating actual assets onto the blockchain, Rexas Finance drives a financial revolution. Real estate, artwork, or goods— RXS lets you digitally tokenize and own these items. Making asset ownership more liquid, transparent, and available to everyone is upsetting established finance. The RXS presale has been outstanding. It began at merely $0.030 and surged to $0.20 in stage 12, a 580% increase. Early investors have already seen a 7x return on investment. So far, the presale has sold 450,397,194 RXS tokens, raising over $46,079,897. Time is running out for investors to purchase RXS before its June 19, 2025 IPO at $0.25, with just 9.92% of the final presale stage left. Those who buy now could still profit from 20% gains before its official release. Rexas Finance is 100% community-driven unlike many cryptocurrency initiatives depending on venture financing. Eliminating venture money guarantees more equitable distribution and greater community involvement. Achieving visibility on major websites confirmed the initiative’s reliability and boosted its prominence, making it self-possessed. Rexas Finance also passed a Certik audit, confirming its dependability and security. With over 1,453,121 submissions thus far, the $1 million RXS giveaway has also attracted great interest. Twenty fortunate winners will each receive $50,000 worth of RXS, generating further buzz around the idea. Completing giveaway activities on the Rexas Finance website will raise your odds of winning. According to analysts, Rexas Finance is looking bright; some estimate it to be a 100x altcoin by 2025. Given its actual application case, Certik audit, and explosive presale, one can easily understand. Early cryptocurrency investors experienced explosive expansion; RXS is looking to be among cryptocurrencies’ next big success stories.

Chainlink (LINK) – The Power Behind Smart Contracts

Another crypto with great upside possibility is Chainlink (LINK). Leading a distributed Oracle network allows smart contracts to engage with actual data. This is essential for blockchain technology’s wider acceptance in supply chains, insurance, and banking. LINK is currently valued at $19.59; analysts project it will be $50 by the end of 2025. Chainlink is a wise investment because more projects depend on its Oracle services, and demand is expected to rise. For investors who missed Bitcoin at $100, LINK could change your life in 2025. 

Why Rexas Finance and Chainlink Are Must-Buy Cryptos in 2025

Both Rexas Finance and Chainlink offer game-changing innovations that set them apart.

• Rexas Finance is revolutionizing real-world asset ownership, making it accessible through blockchain.
• Chainlink is essential for smart contract functionality, ensuring seamless blockchain integration with external data.

Early investors have a great chance for large returns with RXS, which is in its last presale stage at $0.20 and scheduled to launch at $0.25. Meanwhile, LINK is positioned to ride the wave of distributed finance (DeFi) expansion. When Rexas Finance (RXS) is purchased at $0.20, it yields a 20% gain when it hits the top exchanges at $0.25. RXS is poised for more gains, as it could offer 100x gains in 2025, changing the lives of investors who missed BTC at $100. Should you regret missing Bitcoin at $100, this could be your second opportunity. Don’t wait until RXS and LINK hit fresh highs; guarantee your place today!

For more information about Rexas Finance (RXS) visit the links below:

Website: https://rexas.com

Win $1 Million Giveaway: https://bit.ly/Rexas1M

Whitepaper: https://rexas.com/rexas-whitepaper.pdf

Twitter/X: https://x.com/rexasfinance

Telegram: https://t.me/rexasfinance ​

Disclaimer: The views and opinions presented in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of CoinCheckup. The content of this article should not be considered as investment advice. Always do your own research before deciding to buy, sell or transfer any crypto assets. Past returns do not always guarantee future profits.

Updated on March 3rd, 2025 by Felix Martinez

At Sure Dividend, we believe that the best stocks to buy and hold to generate long-term wealth have several qualities in common. First, they are strong businesses that lead their respective industries, with the ability to generate consistent profits year after year—even during recessions.

Not only that, they also have shareholder-friendly management teams that are dedicated to raising their dividends each year. We advocate investing in the Dividend Aristocrats, a group of 69 companies in the S&P 500 Index, with at least 25 consecutive years of dividend increases.

You can download the full list of all 69 Dividend Aristocrats, along with several important financial metrics such as price-to-earnings ratios and dividend yields, by clicking on the link below:

Disclaimer: Sure Dividend is not affiliated with S&P Global in any way. S&P Global owns and maintains The Dividend Aristocrats Index. The information in this article and downloadable spreadsheet is based on Sure Dividend’s own review, summary, and analysis of the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) and other sources, and is meant to help individual investors better understand this ETF and the index upon which it is based. None of the information in this article or spreadsheet is official data from S&P Global. Consult S&P Global for official information.

Each year, we review all the Dividend Aristocrats. Next up is Archer Daniels Midland (ADM).

Archer Daniels Midland has increased its dividend each year for 52 years in a row and has paid uninterrupted quarterly dividends to shareholders for 90 years. The company’s dividend is also relatively safe thanks to sound business fundamentals.

Business Overview

Archer Daniels Midland was founded in 1902 when George A. Archer and John W. Daniels began a linseed-crushing business. In 1923, Archer-Daniels Linseed Company acquired Midland Linseed Products Company, which created Archer Daniels Midland.

Today, it is an agricultural industry giant with annual revenue above $86 billion. The company produces a wide range of products and services designed to meet the growing demand for food due to rising populations.

Archer-Daniels-Midland’s businesses include processing cereal grains, oilseeds, and agricultural storage and transportation. The Ag Services and Oilseeds segment is Archer Daniels Midland’s largest.

Source: Investor Presentation

Archer-Daniels-Midland reported its fourth-quarter Fiscal Year (FY) 2024 results on February 4th, 2025. The company reported full-year earnings per share (EPS) of $3.65 and adjusted EPS of $4.74, both lower than the previous year. Net earnings totaled $1.8 billion, while adjusted net earnings reached $2.3 billion. The company generated $2.8 billion in cash flow from operations. In response to market challenges, ADM announced cost-saving initiatives targeting $500–$750 million and increased its quarterly dividend by 2%.

Fourth-quarter earnings before income taxes were $667 million, down 9% year-over-year. GAAP EPS increased 10% to $1.17, while adjusted EPS declined 16% to $1.14. Full-year earnings before taxes fell 47% to $2.3 billion, and total segment operating profit dropped 28% to $4.2 billion. The Ag Services & Oilseeds segment saw a 40% decline in operating profit due to lower crush margins and biofuel policy uncertainties, while Carbohydrate Solutions remained stable. The Nutrition segment fell 10%, with Human Nutrition down 22%.

ADM expects 2025 adjusted EPS between $4.00 and $4.75, reflecting continued market pressures. The company prioritizes operational improvements, portfolio simplification, and strategic capital allocation to drive long-term growth.

Growth Prospects

ADM faced growth challenges in 2024 due to tough comparisons following a strong prior period. Performance varied across its segments.

The Ag Services & Oilseeds segment saw a 40% drop in operating profit for the full year, driven by lower crush margins and biofuel policy uncertainties.

Carbohydrate Solutions remained stable, showing resilience despite market pressures.

The Nutrition segment declined 10% for the full year, with Human Nutrition down 22%, reflecting weaker demand.

Over time, ADM has reshaped its portfolio with acquisitions, joint ventures, and strategic divestitures.

Source: Investor Presentation

For example, the acquisition of Ziegler Group and the establishment of a nutrition flavor research and customer center are expected to improve growth prospects.

This positive outlook leads us to anticipate a feasible growth rate of approximately 3.0% for the next five years.

Competitive Advantages & Recession Performance

Archer Daniels Midland has built significant competitive advantages over the years. It is the largest processor of corn in the world, which leads to economies of scale and efficiencies in production and distribution.

It is an industry giant with ~440 crop procurement locations, ~300 food and feed processing facilities, and 64 innovation centers.

At its innovation centers, the company conducts research and development to respond more effectively to changes in customer demand and improve processing efficiency. Archer Daniels Midland’s unparalleled global transportation network serves as a huge competitive advantage.

The company’s global distribution system provides high margins and barriers to entry, allowing Archer Daniels Midland to remain highly profitable even during industry downturns.

Profits held up, even during the Great Recession. Earnings-per-share during the Great Recession are below:

• 2007 earnings-per-share of $2.38
• 2008 earnings-per-share of $2.84 (19% increase)
• 2009 earnings-per-share of $3.06 (7.7% increase)
• 2010 earnings-per-share of $3.06

Archer Daniels Midland’s earnings-per-share increased in 2008 and 2009, during the Great Recession. Very few companies can boast such a performance in one of the worst economic downturns in U.S. history.

Archer Daniels Midland’s remarkable durability in recessions could be due to the fact that grains still need to be processed and transported, regardless of the economic climate.

There will always be a certain level of demand for Archer Daniels Midland’s products. From a dividend perspective, the payout looks quite safe.

Valuation & Expected Returns

Based on the expected 2025 EPS of $4.21, ADM shares trade for a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.2. Archer–Daniels–Midland has been valued at a price-to-earnings multiple of ~15 over the last decade.

Our fair value P/E is 14, meaning the stock is undervalued.

An increasing valuation multiple could generate 6% annual returns for shareholders over the next five years. Future returns will also be derived from earnings growth and dividends.

We expect Archer Daniels Midland to grow its future earnings by ~3% per year through 2030, and the stock has a current dividend yield of 4.3%.

In this case, total expected returns are 13.3% per year over the next five years, a solid risk-adjusted rate of return for Archer Daniels Midland stock.

Final Thoughts

Archer Daniels Midland is coming off a few years of strong earnings growth. While earnings are expected to decline in 2024, we see the potential for a return to long-term growth.

The company has a long history of navigating challenging periods. It has continued to generate profits and reward shareholders with rising dividends.

The stock appears to be undervalued, and has a 4.3% dividend yield, plus annual dividend increases. As a result, Archer Daniels Midland seems to be a buy for dividend growth investors.

If you are interested in finding more high-quality dividend growth stocks suitable for long-term investment, the following Sure Dividend databases will be useful:

The major domestic stock market indices are another solid resource for finding investment ideas. Sure Dividend compiles the following stock market databases and updates them monthly:

Trade wars continue to roil the stock market … good news on the semiconductor front … an AI Applier recommendation from Eric Fry … more jobs losses due to AI

Earlier today, all three major stock indexes found themselves deep in the red as President Trump’s trade war escalates.

This morning, 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico went into effect, as did 20% levies on Chinese goods.

In response, China will impose new 10%-15% tariffs on certain U.S. imports next week… Canada is applying 25% tariffs on more than $20B of U.S. imports immediately … and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said she will announce her tariff plans this weekend.

Stepping back, brief levies used as a negotiating tool are one thing… extended tariffs as a “new normal” for U.S. trade policy is another.

Today’s market upheaval reflects fears that we’re slipping into a “new normal” that would weigh on corporate earnings and the U.S. consumer.

The related economic uncertainty is creating a “batten down the hatches” mindset for corporate managers that’s slowing business activity.

For more on this, let’s jump to our hypergrowth expert Luke Lango. From yesterday’s Innovation Investor Daily Notes:

The U.S. economy is clearly buckling under the pressure of heightened policy uncertainty.

GDP grew by 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024. Real-time estimates for GDP growth in Q1 have fallen to -1.5%.

In other words, U.S. economic growth has fallen off a cliff over the past two months from steady growth (2.3%) to fairly meaningful contraction (-1.5%) …

According to the February ISM Manufacturing Report released [yesterday] morning, the U.S. economy is moving in all the wrong directions right now.

Business activity is collapsing, with the New Orders index falling from 55.1 to 48.6 – its lowest level since October 2024.

Labor conditions are deteriorating, with the Employment index falling from 50.3 to 47.6 – its lowest level since October 2023.

And inflation pressures are spiking, with the Prices Paid index surging from 54.9 to 62.4 – its highest level since June 2022.

Everything is going in the wrong direction.

Before we get too bearish, Luke remains optimistic that these tariffs won’t become permanent

He sees stocks roaring back when today’s uncertainty dissipates. And that point is approaching.

Back to Luke:

Policy uncertainty will abate in the coming weeks. It may even be replaced by policy optimism as the new administration shifts its focus from tariffs and federal spending cuts to deregulation and tax cuts.

As that happens, stocks should rebound…

Aside from policy risks, the fundamentals underlying the stock market remain positive and strong. That’s why we believe that as policy risks ease, this market will blast higher.

I’ll note that stocks are trading off their morning lows as I write early afternoon. The Nasdaq has jumped from “2% down” to less than half a percent lower.

Who knows where we’ll close, but this is encouraging, and has shades of Luke’s forecasted rebound.

Circling back to tariffs, Trump will likely defend/promote his policies tonight when he delivers the first joint congressional address of his second term. In the meantime, mind your stop-losses…and look for great stocks that are now selling at panic prices.

I’ll share one stock to consider below.

Following the trail of innovation…

Let’s follow the steppingstones.

AI is the future…

The nation that leads the AI race will gain a significant edge – both economically and militarily – over its rivals…

At the heart of this competition lies cutting-edge semiconductor technology…

And that places Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) squarely in the global spotlight.

According to The Economist, Taiwan produces more than 60% of the world’s semiconductors and over 90% of the most advanced ones. And most of them come from TMSC.

To make sure you’re not confused, Nvidia designs the most advanced AI chips, but it does not manufacture them. Instead, it relies on TSMC to produce its cutting-edge chips, including the latest GPUs used for AI.

With this context, yesterday brought important news.

From The Wall Street Journal:

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. intends to invest $100 billion in chip-manufacturing plants in the U.S. over the next four years under a plan expected to be announced later Monday by President Trump, according to people familiar with the matter.

The investment would be used to build out cutting-edge chip-making facilities.

Such an expansion would advance a long-pursued U.S. goal to regrow the domestic semiconductor industry after manufacturing fled largely to Asian countries in recent decades.

This is a big next step in our AI war with China

Taiwan – particularly TMSC – is a potential flash point between the U.S. and China.

China has increasingly asserted its intention to reunify with Taiwan, using both military posturing and political pressure. Recent activities include intensified military drills and frequent incursions into Taiwan’s air space. Experts suggest this signals a readiness to use force if Beijing deems it necessary.

Here’s The Guardian:

China’s military launched a record number of warplane incursions around Taiwan in 2024 as it builds its ability to launch full-scale invasion, something a former chief of Taiwan’s armed forces said Beijing could be capable of within a decade.

TMSC – being the world’s largest contract chipmaker and a key supplier of cutting-edge semiconductors – is critically important to both China and the U.S., making the news of the $100 billion investment even more significant.

Domestic chip production would be critical if a worst-case scenario plays out between the U.S. and China over the coming years.

We’ll keep you updated as this story unfolds.

Meanwhile, a reminder to invest in “AI Appliers” – even more so today while the markets are panic selling

If you’re new to the Digest, “AI Appliers” are the companies using AI to grow revenues, cut costs, and beef up bottom lines. Here’s a bit more color from our global macro expert Eric Fry, editor of Investment Report:

AI Appliers take foundational tech breakthroughs – like Nvidia AI chips – and profit off utilizing them.

Some companies use AI to enhance businesses, while others provide the energy AI needs to run.

These are the companies now set to produce strong investment gains in the coming years.

In recent weeks, we’ve highlighted various AI Appliers recommended by our experts. Let’s highlight with another one, courtesy of Eric:

Coupang may not be a household name here in the United States, but the company is well known in every South Korean household. Coupang is South Korea’s go-to provider of Amazon-like services.

In his analysis, Eric highlights the company’s Q1 2024 earnings call in which founder Bom Suk Kim spoke to Coupang’s AI initiatives.

I’ll include a snippet of it below, as this is the exact type of commentary that we should be looking for from the CEOs of the companies in which we’re investing today.

From Kim:

Machine-learning and AI continues to be – have been a core part of our strategy. We’ve deployed them in many facets of our business from supply chain management to same-day logistics.

We’re also seeing tremendous potential with large language models in a number of areas from search and ads to catalogue and operations among others.

There is exciting potential for AI that we see and we see opportunities for it to contribute even more significantly to our business.

But like any investment we make, we’ll test and iterate and then invest further only in the cases where we see the greatest potential for return.

This focus isn’t new. Eric notes that Coupang’s e-commerce platform already utilizes AI and advanced robotics.

Meanwhile, the company’s other patent-protected AI-related tech can predict future order volumes, alert product managers when prices fluctuate significantly, optimize Coupang Eats delivery, and enhance search accuracy.

And if this isn’t enough, there’s one final reason to consider Coupang…

Stanley Druckenmiller – arguably one of the greatest traders of all time – is heavily invested.

For newer Digest readers, “the Druck” is a market legend. He’s credited alongside George Soros as “breaking the Bank of England” when the two made $1 billion from shorting the pound. He has perhaps the best long-term investment track record of any investor alive.

As of mid-November 2024, Coupang was one of his top five holdings.

Bottom line: If you’re looking for a top AI Applier that’s not already in the average U.S. investor’s portfolio, give Coupang a hard look.

By the way, the stock is down about 10% over the last two weeks as this selloff continues.

For additional AI Appliers that Eric is recommending in Investment Report, click here to learn about joining him.

Finally, maintain a big-picture perspective on why you’re investing in AI

Unfortunately, it’s not just about investment gains…

It’s about being on the right side of history and securing your future.

Right now, in closed-door business meetings around the country, executives are having the same conversation…and it’s leading to the same action step…

The most effective way for companies to increase profits today is by letting go of expensive, error-prone human workers and replacing them with inexpensive, near-perfect AI workers.

Here’s a tiny sampling of what’s been happening in the corporate world recently:

• Salesforce: Management announced layoffs due to artificial intelligence, indicating a strategic move towards automation to enhance efficiency.
• Autodesk: The software company will cut approximately 9% of its to increase efficiency and focus on growth areas such as artificial intelligence.
• Workday: They’ll be laying off about 8% of its workforce as part of a shift towards more AI-driven solutions and investments.
• Duolingo: In January last year, it offboarded 10% of its contractor workforce as the company pivoted to AI for content translation.
• Siemens: It’s considering cutting up to 5,000 jobs globally in its factory automation sector due to ongoing challenges, with a focus on integrating AI to enhance efficiency.

I could list dozens of these stories, but they all point to the same takeaway…

AI is replacing a growing number of the corporate workforce

Executives will do all they can to avoid directly stating this reality. After all, it looks terrible in the headlines. So, they’ll mask it with business jargon, using words like “efficiency” and “streamlining.” But the takeaway is the same…

More jobs lost to AI/automation.

To be clear, this isn’t about struggling companies using AI as a lifeline to right the ship and return to profitability. Most of the companies incorporating AI today are profitable. But AI can help them become even more profitable.

Here’s Forbes making this point yesterday in an article highlighting corporate job cuts coming in March:

Michael Ryan, a financial advisor, says that AI is a big driver in the announcements…

“It’s not like these companies are struggling to stay afloat. They’re making these cuts while their bottom lines look good.

“I think what we’re seeing isn’t just a normal economic hiccup. It feels more like companies are using this moment to fundamentally reshape how they operate.

“They’re thinking, ‘Well, if we can replace these positions with automation, why wouldn’t we?’”

This is the direction corporate America is headed. Here’s how I put it in our Oct. 7, 2024, Digest:

Imagine a billiards table with its pool balls spread about the table randomly…

Now, imagine hoisting up a corner of the table so that all the balls roll into a single pocket.

This is the financial impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on global wealth.

AI is lifting the billiards table… the pool balls are global wealth/investment capital… and the one pocket receiving all the balls are the owners of the businesses that wisely and effectively implement AI technologies.

What about the five other empty pockets?

Well, they’re the businesses that fail or are unable to adapt to next-gen AI technology or business models. They’re also the “regular Joes” who get shafted financially as AI steps in to do their jobs faster, better, and cheaper…

In the era we’re entering, there will be just two types of people: the owners of AI, benefiting from the lopsided flow of capital, and everyone else, who are watching AI swallow their former economic productivity like light into a black hole.

So, what do we do?

From an active income perspective, become proficient at whatever AI tools are most relevant to your industry (if applicable), and use them to make yourself more effective.

From a passive income perspective, your best defense is a good offense of well-placed AI investments.

That’s what we’re trying to help you achieve here in the Digest with recommendations like CPNG.

Bottom line: Make sure you’re ready for what’s coming…because it’s already begun.

Have a good evening,

Jeff Remsburg

Written by the Market Insights Team

The US dollar hit its lowest level since November and is now down over 4% from its January peak as US recession risks mount. Meanwhile, Europe’s improving growth trajectory has sent EUR/USD to 16-week highs, up 2.5% this week, whilst the pound has pierced through key upside resistance barriers versus the dollar. Tariff-related headlines will continue to dominate markets, but on the data front today, we have final PMI prints from major economies, and the US ISM services index, which is expected to remain resilient at 52.5.

The trade war has begun

Boris Kovacevic – Global Macro Strategist

The tit-for-tat trade war is officially underway. The US administration enacted new tariffs yesterday, raising duties on most Canadian and Mexican imports to 25% while doubling the existing 10% levy on Chinese goods to 20%. Retaliation was swift—Canada announced a phased tariff plan targeting approximately $100 billion worth of US goods, Mexico is expected to follow suit by the end of the week, and China imposed tariffs of up to 15% on select US products.

Until now, investors had grown complacent about tariff risks, reassured by Trump’s repeated delays and adjustments to the rollout. However, the latest round of levies signals a clear deterioration in trade relations, significantly increasing US recession risks. Investors on Polymarket have adjusted their outlook, accordingly, pushing the probability of the US economy contracting for two consecutive quarters this year from 23% last week to 37% today. This shift in sentiment is also evident in fixed-income markets, where expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have surged—markets now fully price in three rate cuts for the year.

Fears of a prolonged trade conflict and economic downturn have sent bond yields, the US dollar, and global equities tumbling. European markets, wary that the continent could be the next target for US tariffs, saw the STOXX 600 suffer its steepest daily loss (-2.1%) since August. While US equities pared some of their declines, they remain vulnerable. Treasury Secretary Bessent has reiterated the administration’s commitment to prioritizing Main Street over Wall Street, reinforcing concerns that the so-called “Trump put” may be far lower than initially expected. However, the confusion over the length and goal of Trump’s tariffs remains. Less than twelve hours after imposing these tariffs, did US Commerce Secretary Lutnik state that some of the levies might be taken back. Following the news flow and macro data remains critical.

EUR: soars to 16-week high

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

The euro is up a whopping 2.5% versus the US dollar this week, erasing last week’s losses and more and hitting its highest level ($1.0640) since November. The playbook until now has been that rising tariff tensions were bad for the common currency as the EU would be targeted next by Trump. However, with investors more focussed on the negative implications for the US economy in an already softer US economic backdrop, the dollar has been the biggest loser of these tariff measures so far.

There is a realisation that the US dollar must adjust to a new reality of higher domestic prices and weaker growth, owing to Trump’s tariff measures. It’s losing its safe haven appeal it seems. Moreover, the dovish recalibrations of Fed policy has pushed the Eurozone-US real rate differential to its highest since September, having hit a 1-year low back in December just two weeks before EUR/USD fell to its lowest level in two years. The euro might have the legs to rise even higher over next couple of weeks to bring it close to fair-value territory implied by real rate differentials. Plus, the news coming out of Brussels that the EU is looking to boost defence spending could raise economic growth prospects and reduce expectations of rate cuts by the ECB (European Central Bank).

The ECB meets on Thursday, with a 25-basis point cut baked into market pricing. But the governing council may introduce new language to suggest that further reductions to the policy rate beyond March are no longer a given. This might spur a re-pricing of the rate cuts that the markets have factored in and provide an even stronger tailwind for the euro.

GBP: Breaking through resistance barriers

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

The British pound is also surging higher against the US dollar amidst a slowdown in US economic data, eliminating the US ‘exceptionalism’ narrative and driving a convergence in US performance with elsewhere. GBP/USD has broken above its 200-day and 200-week moving averages and is flirting with $1.28 this morning, bang on its 5-year average and almost 6% higher than its January low of $1.21.

With key resistance barriers to the upside broken, sentiment in GBP/USD has shifted from short-term bearish to bullish. We half expected GBP/USD to trend lower over the next month before staging such a rebound, but it seems Trump trades are starting to unravel quicker, and the dollar’s tariff risk premium is fading fast as the focus shifts from the inflation implications of policy and onto the growth risks for the US economy. There are also indications that interest rates in the UK will stay higher for longer. While Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said recently that four rates in 2025 may be the most likely path for the evolution of the policy rate, still-sticky consumer prices and private sector wage growth may pose a hurdle.

As a result, sterling looks like an appealing currency in the G10 space, surging higher against low yielding safe havens as well as high-beta trade-sensitive currencies. GBP/JPY, for example, is up 1.2% this week, eying ¥192.0. GBP/CAD is up 1.4%, has risen every single day since February 11 and clocked a near 9-year high yesterday. However, with the surge in demand for the euro, GBP/EUR has slipped back from €1.21 to trade closer to the €1.20 handle this morning.

Euro shines across the FX space

Table: 7-day currency trends and trading ranges

Key global risk events

Calendar: March 3-7

All times are in GMT

Have a question? [email protected]

*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.