Global Finance: Do you see a significant difference in how the second Trump administration approaches tariffs, compared to its first term, when you were Secretary of Commerce?
Wilbur Ross: The biggest difference is that we were charting uncharted waters in the first term. Namely, nobody really knew if [President Trump] had the statutory authority to put in steel tariffs, aluminum tariffs, refrigerator tariffs, or washing machine tariffs. So, we dredged up old legislation, some from 1976 and some from 1972, which were tested in court and upheld by and large.
The first thing was that it took a lot of time in the first administration to ensure we had the power to do some of the things he wanted. Now that that’s been established and he was happy with the results, the President is using tariffs much more broadly. He’s using them as a revenue measure, a diplomatic measure, and for all sorts of other purposes, such as trying to control fentanyl smuggling and controlling the border. That’s the first difference.
The second difference is that he has much more public support in general and with the Republican Party. The last time around, he was much more controversial at inauguration than this time. You saw that in the popular vote. But even more importantly, last time around, he had relatively little control over the Republican Party. There were a lot of free traders still in, particularly the Senate among the Republicans. Most of them have now retired. So that’s a big difference. And you’ve seen his ability to control the Congress in some of the notions he’s been able to force through this time, now by very skinny votes. Still, essentially this time the Republican Party in the Congress is pretty well unified behind the Trump agenda. They were not the first time.
And the last factor that’s different is back when he was in his first term, there was still the global perception that free trade was the big objective, and the business community still was very much of the view for more internationalization, more globalization of supply chains. Now, particularly because of COVID-19, there’s a rethinking of that. At this point, many business executives recognize that every time they add another country to their supply chain, they’re adding a point of vulnerability.
There was the beginning of a shift from globalization to localization, making factories closer to their consuming markets. That was coming even independently of Trump.
GF:Do you feel the administration has an overarching plan for tariff implementation, or is it being far more reactive to the situation? What did President Trump not get from the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) that he wants now?
Ross: Oh, well, that’s a very good question. To answer this, we need to look at the two parts of USMCA. As you know, Mexico has been a huge beneficiary of our moves against Chinese exports to the US. Because the peso has been struggling as a currency and Mexican wage rates haven’t increased much, they are quite competitive with China when you factor in shorter shipping distances, lower in-progress inventory costs, and reduced transportation expenses.
However, Mexico hasn’t really lived up to the free trade agreement we made with them. It has not liberalized its oil and gas sector as it was supposed to, and it hasn’t made its courts more impartial—an important component of the deal. Third, with the rise of electric vehicles and digital manufacturing moving to Mexico, we need to modify the rules of origin somewhat.
You’ll remember that under USMCA, 60%–70% of the content had to come from countries with a wage rate above $15 an hour. That rule was meant to ensure that the benefits of trade shifting to Mexico would be shared between Mexico and the U.S. Now that the types of products moving there have changed, we need to refine the rules of origin accordingly. So, those adjustments were needed anyway when it comes to Mexico.
What’s new is the fentanyl issue. Trump has been pressing Mexico on fentanyl and border security for a long time. But if you recall, during his first administration, he got Mexico to deploy 20,000 troops to the border by threatening tariffs. So that strategy isn’t new—he’s just actually implementing it this time.
In terms of Canada, things are a little different. Until now, he hadn’t needed to push Canada on fentanyl and border security. The Canadians made a big mistake in how Prime Minister Justin Trudeau responded. Trudeau’s initial reaction was, “Well, it isn’t that big a problem. It’s only a few kilos of fentanyl.”
Two kilos of fentanyl coming in from Canada can kill a lot of people. Second, we believe that as Mexico cracks down on cartels, those operations may shift to Canada. That’s why we want Canada to be prepared to address the issue.
Similarly, Trump had been pressing Canada on dairy products and softwood lumber since his first term. But for the first time, he’s decided to take a step further on softwood lumber by opening up the U.S. Forest Reserve. We have plenty of milling capacity for home building and other purposes, but the supply of stumpage (harvestable timber) has been somewhat limited. Now, that restriction is being lifted. That structural change led him to conclude that Canada’s share of softwood exports should be reduced. So, the factual situation has changed, and his response to it has evolved accordingly.
GF: What lessons did you learn from President Trump’s negotiation style when first negotiating the USMCA? To remove some of the tariffs, he’s asking for the end fentanyl smuggling, cessation of illegal immigration and Canada to become the 51st state. How much of this is negotiation and how much is trolling?
Ross: I met President Trump by representing his creditors in the Trump Taj Mahal. I was in a very adversarial position against him. His style is very aggressive and very strong in negotiations. You see that coming through in the trade. It wasn’t quite as aggressive last time, partly because he has done a lot of business, including some real estate development in foreign countries.
Last time, he was not an expert in the more intricate aspects of trade. He’s learned a lot from the interactions that we have had with other governments then and now.
His style of negotiating is one of pushing for things very, very hard and being willing to take punitive action if he doesn’t get what he wants. You saw that with Ukraine.
With Panama, he was able to create an environment where all of a sudden, Hutchison Whampoa, turned over control of not just the two key Panamanian ports, but many other ports that it was operating. He would never have thought through that level of detail in Trump 1.0. Now he knows more about potential targets. And every time he succeeds, like with the Panama Canal, which as you remember, didn’t get that much press because it was accomplished without much hooting and hollering. Hutchison made a very good commercial decision to sell those ports to a syndicate organized by BlackRock.
One way of responding to Trump’s new policies is asking, “Well, okay, here’s something that he wants. Maybe I can turn that to my immediate commercial advantage.” Given that Hutchison did pretty well with the port sale, that’s not a bad role model for other companies.
GF: You seem very optimistic overall regarding the new administration’s trajectory and its trade policy.
Ross: Well, I am, but with one big caveat: It has to be coupled with enactment of his tax and deregulation policies. Remember, if Congress doesn’t act, the tax cuts that he enacted in his first administration will automatically go away, which would amount to a tax increase on corporations. Coupled with the tariff policy, it would be a heavy burden. That’s why it’s important that this happens.
It’s also quite important to bring down the cost of government. I’m a big fan of what Elon Musk and Trump are doing, even though I’m sure they will go too far in some cases because they’ve been moving so quickly. In some cases, they’ll have to recalibrate their course, but it’s important that Trump’s overall policies are brought to bear. It would be much better for our economy if his whole package were to go through rather than just the trade package.
In the defense sector, one of his big objections to Europe, and to a degree Canada, is that they haven’t been paying their fair share of NATO. And that’s put an undue burden on the US.
That’s changing. Indeed, some Europeans are talking about going well beyond the 2% of GDP for defense that had been NATO’s target.
You have to look at the whole set of programs. Cutting down on the ability of able-bodied people to get big [government] benefits, in many cases getting more compensation than when they were working. That will go away and will be a constructive thing for our economy because we need a higher degree of workforce participation. To grow more rapidly, we need the workforce participation rate to rise above 63%.
GF: Do you have any other concerns?
Ross: Well, there’s always the danger when you’re trying to change a lot of things in a lot of geographies all at the same time. There’s always the danger of overextending and making real mistakes. He needs to move rapidly and on all fronts for a domestic political reason: Anything requiring congressional action that isn’t completed by September will be difficult to pass, because by then, everybody in Congress will be focusing on the midterms, and they’re going to be less inclined to do anything that’s controversial.
GF: Are there any issues in which you part company with the current administration?
Ross: There are areas where we do disagree. For example, as you’re probably aware, I wrote an editorial in The Wall Street Journal supporting the Nippon Steel takeover of U.S. Steel, which is directly antithetical to US government policy. So, while I’m broadly in sync with what they’re doing, there are some very specific parts where we naturally disagree—very much.
A collection of coins from around the globe assembled by a successful businessman from Singapore is headed to the world’s leading auctioneer of World and Ancient coins. The Peh Family Collection is so impressive, in both quantity and quality, that it is being offered in two of the largest and most important auctions on the numismatic calendar.
Kuang-hsü silver Restrike Pattern Tael CD 1906 MS66 PCGS
“This is an outstanding collection, one that reflects a discerning eye and deep historical understanding of significant coins from many parts of the world,” says Cris Bierrenbach, Vice President of International Numismatics at Heritage Auctions. “It is an honor to bring such an elite and thoughtfully curated numismatic assemblage to market.”
From 2004-2014, Peh collected extensively, poring over catalogs and journals and frequenting auctions in person, many in the United Kingdom. He not only pursued elite coins, he also kept them – he never parted with a single piece he collected at any time in his life.
Peh initially focused his collecting on coins of his homeland – Singapore, the Straits Settlements, Malaysia and North Borneo – until his desire for exceptional coins required him to expand his reach, into regional neighbor countries like Japan and China and eventually around the world, with treasures from far-ranging locales like Great Britain, Russia, Brazil and Netherlands East Indies.
Selections from the Peh Family Collection that will be offered at the HKINF World Coins Platinum Session and Signature® Auction include, but are not limited to:
Images and information about all lots in the auction can be found at HA.com/3124.
Top selections that will be in play at Heritage’s ANA World’s Fair of Money in August include, but are not limited to:
Images and information about all lots in the auction can be found at HA.com/3125.
Heritage Auctions is the largest fine art and collectibles auction house founded in the United States, and the world’s largest collectibles auctioneer. Heritage maintains offices in New York, Dallas, Beverly Hills, Chicago, Palm Beach, London, Paris, Amsterdam, Brussels, Munich, Hong Kong and Tokyo.
Heritage also enjoys the highest Online traffic and dollar volume of any auction house on earth (source: SimilarWeb and Hiscox Report). The Internet’s most popular auction-house website, HA.com, has more than 1,750,000 registered bidder-members and searchable free archives of more than 6,000,000 past auction records with prices realized, descriptions and enlargeable photos.
DRIP stands for Dividend Reinvestment Plan. When an investor is enrolled in DRIP stocks, it means that incoming dividend payments are used to purchase more shares of the issuing company – automatically.
Many businesses offer DRIPs that require the investors to pay fees. Obviously, paying fees is a negative for investors. As a general rule, investors are better off avoiding DRIP stocks that charge fees.
Fortunately, many companies offer no-fee DRIP stocks. These allow investors to use their hard-earned dividends to build even larger positions in their favorite high-quality, dividend-paying companies – for free.
The Dividend Champions are a group of quality dividend stocks that have raised their dividends for at least 25 consecutive years.
You can download your free copy of the Dividend Champions list, along with relevant financial metrics like price-to-earnings ratios, dividend yields, and payout ratios, by clicking on the link below:
Think about the powerful combination of DRIPs and Dividend Champions…
You are reinvesting dividends into a company that pays higher dividends every year. This means that every year you get more shares – and each share is paying you more dividend income than the previous year.
This makes a powerful (and cost-effective) compounding machine.
This article takes a look at the top 15 Dividend Champions that are no-fee DRIP stocks, ranked in order of expected total returns from lowest to highest.
The updated list for 2025 includes our top 15 Dividend Champions, ranked by expected returns according to the Sure Analysis Research Database, that offer no-fee DRIPs to shareholders.
You can skip to analysis of any individual Dividend Champion below:
Additionally, please see the video below for more coverage.
#15: Realty Income (O)
5-year expected annual returns: 9.0%
Realty Income is a retail real estate focused REIT that has become famous for its successful dividend growth history and monthly dividend payments.
Realty Income owns retail properties that are not part of a wider retail development (such as a mall), but instead are standalone properties.
This means that the properties are viable for many different tenants, including government services, healthcare services, and entertainment.
On February 25, 2025, Realty Income Corporation reported its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024.
The company achieved a 1.8% increase in core funds from operations (FFO) for the year, alongside over $550 million in acquisition volume. The year concluded with a strong 98.5% occupancy rate.
These achievements reflect the dedication and expertise of Realty Income’s best-in-class team, positioning the company well for the near term.
Illinois Tool Works is a diversified multi-industrial manufacturer with seven unique operating segments: Automotive, Food Equipment, Test & Measurement, Welding, Polymers & Fluids, Construction Products and Specialty Products.
Last year the company generated $15.9 billion in revenue.
On February 5th, 2025, Illinois Tool Works reported fourth quarter 2024 results for the period ending December 31st, 2024. For the quarter, revenue came in at $3.9 billion, shrinking 1.3% year-over-year.
Sales declined 3.7% in the Automotive OEM segment, the largest out of the company’s seven segments. The Food Equipment and Test & Measurement and Electronics segments grew revenues by 2.7% and 2.2%, respectively.
A.O. Smith is a leading manufacturer of residential and commercial water heaters, boilers and water treatment products. It generates two-thirds of its sales in North America, and most of the rest in China.
A.O. Smith has raised its dividend for 30 years in a row, making the company a Dividend Aristocrat. The company was founded in 1874 and is headquartered in Milwaukee, WI.
A.O. Smith reported its fourth quarter earnings results on January 30. The company generated revenues of $912 million during the quarter, which represents a decline of 8% compared to the prior year’s quarter.
A.O. Smith’s revenues were down by 7% in North America, but the international business saw a wider decline, primarily due to lower sales in China, which has ongoing troubles in its real estate market.
A.O. Smith generated earnings-per-share of $0.85 during the fourth quarter, which was down 12% on a year over year basis. This was caused by lower revenues and lower margins, with buybacks not being able to fully offset these headwinds.
Universal Health Realty Income Trust operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT), specializing in the healthcare sector. The trust owns healthcare and human service-related facilities.
Its property portfolio includes acute care hospitals, medical office buildings, rehabilitation hospitals, behavioral healthcare facilities, sub-acute care facilities and childcare centers. Universal Health’s portfolio consists of 69 properties in 20 states.
On October 24, 2024, UHT reported its third quarter results. Funds from Operations (FFO) saw a slight improvement, rising to $11.3 million, or $0.82 per diluted share, from $11.2 million, or $0.81 per diluted share, in the third quarter of 2023. This increase in FFO was mainly due to the rise in net income during the period.
The company maintained a strong liquidity position with significant cash reserves and continued strategic investments to enhance its property portfolio.
Tompkins Financial is a regional financial services holding company headquartered in Ithaca, NY that can trace its roots back more than 180 years. It has total assets of about $8 billion, which produce about $300 million in annual revenue.
The company offers a wide range of services, including checking and deposit accounts, time deposits, loans, credit cards, insurance services, and wealth management to its customers in New York and Pennsylvania.
Tompkins also sports a 38-year dividend increase streak after boosting its payout for November 2024.
Tompkins posted fourth quarter and full-year earnings on January 31st, 2025, and results were somewhat mixed.
Earnings-per-share came in 15 cents ahead of estimates at $1.37. Revenue was up more than 8% year-over-year to $77.1 million, but missed estimates by about 1%.
Net interest margin for the fourth quarter was 2.93%, up from 2.79% in the third quarter, and up from 2.82% a year ago.
Total average cost of funds was 1.88% for Q4, down 13 basis points from Q3 as funding mix and lower interest rates both contributed.
NW Natural was founded in 1859 and has grown from just a handful of customers to serving more than 760,000 today. The utility’s mission is to deliver natural gas to its customers in the Pacific Northwest.
The company’s locations served are shown in the image below.
On February 28, 2025, Northwest Natural Holding Company (NWN) reported its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024.
The company achieved an adjusted net income of $90.6 million for the full year, or $2.33 per share, slightly down from $93.9 million, or $2.59 per share, in 2023.
This decrease was primarily due to regulatory lag affecting the first ten months of 2024 until new Oregon gas utility rates became effective on November 1.
Nucor is the largest publicly traded US-based steel corporation based on its market capitalization. The steel industry is notoriously cyclical, which makes Nucor’s streak of 52 consecutive years of dividend increases even more remarkable.
Nucor Corporation reported its fourth-quarter 2024 earnings on January 28, 2025, highlighting strong operational performance despite ongoing challenges in the steel industry.
The company posted net earnings of $287 million, or $1.22 per share, and $8.46 per share for the full year. EBITDA reached $751 million for the quarter and nearly $4.4 billion for the year.
Johnson & Johnson is a diversified health care company and a leader in the area of innovative medicines and medical devices Johnson & Johnson was founded in 1886 and employs nearly 132,000 people around the world.
On January 22nd, 2025, Johnson & Johnson announced fourth quarter and full year results for the period ending December 31st, 2024.
For the quarter, revenue grew 5.1% to $22.5 billion, which beat estimates by $50 million. Adjusted earnings-per-share of $2.04 compared to $2.29 in the prior year, but this was $0.02 above expectations.
For the year, revenue grew 4.3% to $88.8 billion while adjusted earnings-per-share of $9.98 was up slightly from the prior year. Results included adjustments related to the costs of acquisitions.
Polaris designs, engineers, and manufactures snowmobiles, all-terrain vehicles (ATVs) and motorcycles. In addition, related accessories and replacement parts are sold with these vehicles through dealers located throughout the U.S.
The company operates under 30+ brands including Polaris, Ranger, RZR, Sportsman, Indian Motorcycle, Slingshot and Transamerican Auto Parts. The global powersports maker, serving over 100 countries, generated $7.2 billion in sales in 2024.
On January 28th, 2025, Polaris announced fourth quarter and full year results. For the quarter, revenue declined 23.6% to $1.75 billion, but this was $70 million higher than excepted. Adjusted earnings-per-share of $0.92 compared very unfavorably to $1.98 in the prior year, but topped estimates by $0.02.
For the year, revenue fell 19.7% to $7.12 billion while adjusted earnings-per-share of $3.25 was down from $9.16 in 2023.
For the quarter, Marine sales declined 4%, On-Road was lower by 21%, and Off-Road, the largest component of the company, decreased 25%.
As with previous quarters, decreases in all three businesses were mostly due to lower volumes. Off-Road was also negatively impacted planned reductions in shipments. Parts, Garments, and Accessories were weaker in the Off-Road and On-Road segments.
New Jersey Resources provides natural gas and clean energy services, transportation, distribution, asset management and home services through its five main subsidiaries. The company owns both regulated and non-regulated operations.
NJR’s principal subsidiary, New Jersey Natural Gas (NJNG), owns and operates natural gas transportation and distribution infrastructure serving over half a million customers.
NJR Clean Energy Ventures (CEV) invests in and operates solar projects, to provide customers with low-carbon solutions.
NRJ Energy Services manages a portfolio of natural gas transportation and storage assets, as well as provides physical natural gas services to customers in North America.
The midstream subsidiary owns and invests in several large midstream gas projects.
Finally, the home services business provides heating, central air conditioning, water heaters, standby generators, and solar products to residential homes.
New Jersey Resources was founded in 1952 and has paid a quarterly dividend since. The company has increased its annual dividend for 28 consecutive years.
On November 25th, 2024, NJR sold its 91MW residential solar portfolio to Spruce Power Holdings Corporation (SPRU) for $132.5 million, which it will use to pay down debt and for working capital.
New Jersey Resources reported first quarter 2025 results on February 3rd, 2025, for the period ending December 31st, 2024. First quarter net income of $131.3 million compared favorably to the prior year quarter’s $89.4 million.
Consolidated net financial earnings (NFE) amounted to $128.9 million, compared to net financial earnings (NFE) of $72.4 million in Q1 2024 and NFE per share of $1.29 compared to $0.74 per share one year ago.
Emerson Electric is a diversified global leader in technology and engineering. Its global customer base and diverse product and service offerings afford it more than $17 billion in annual revenue.
Emerson posted first quarter earnings on February 5th, 2025, and results were mixed. Adjusted earnings-per-share came to $1.38, which was a dime ahead of estimates. Revenue was up 1.5% year-over-year to $4.18 billion, but missed estimates by $40 million.
Underlying sales rose 2%, and adjusted segment EBITDA margin was 28% of revenue, a 340-basis point improvement from the year-ago period. Gross profit reached a record level of 53.5% of revenue, supported by operational efficiencies, cost controls, and acquisition synergies.
Free cash flow was $694 million, up 89% year-over-year, with working capital improvements being the primary driver. Emerson’s backlog rose to $7.3 billion, excluding forex translation impacts.
Arrow Financial Corporation is a multi-bank holding company based in Glen Falls, New York. The company operates through two main subsidiary banks, the Glens Falls National Bank and Trust Company, and the Saratoga National Bank and Trust Company.
Arrow Financial Corporation is also the parent company of North Country Investment Advisers and Update Agency, an insurance agency. The company is a small cap, and it produces about $163 million in annual revenue. Arrow Financial has increased its dividend for 28 consecutive years.
Arrow posted fourth quarter and full-year earnings on January 30th, 2025, with earnings-per-share coming to 27 cents, and revenue at just over $31 million.
The company’s adjusted net income was $7.8 million, or 47 cents per share after removing non-recurring items. These were related to charges and expenses related to the repositioning of the securities portfolio, primarily.
Net interest margin came to 2.83%, which was up from 2.78% in the prior quarter. That’s still quite low based upon our universe of banks. Loan growth was 7% on an annualized basis, or $59 million, from Q3. Loan balances ended the year at $3.4 billion, which is a record for Arrow.
S&P Global is a worldwide provider of financial services and business information and revenue of over $13 billion.
Through its various segments, it provides credit ratings, benchmarks and indices, analytics, and other data to commodity market participants, capital markets, and automotive markets.
S&P Global has paid dividends continuously since 1937 and has increased its payout for 51 consecutive years.
S&P posted fourth quarter and full-year earnings on February 11th, 2025, and results were much better than expected on both the top and bottom lines.
Adjusted earnings-per-share came to $3.77, which was a staggering 30 cents ahead of estimates. Earnings rose from $3.13 a year ago.
Revenue was up 14% year-over-year to $3.59 billion, beating estimates by $90 million. The company posted revenue growth in all of its operating segments, in addition to strong operating margin expansion.
Operating expenses rose slightly from $2.26 billion to $2.33 billion year-over-year. That led to operating profit of $1.68 billion, sharply higher from $1.39 billion a year ago.
Nordson was founded in 1954 in Amherst, Ohio by brothers Eric and Evan Nord, but the company can trace its roots back to 1909 with the U.S. Automatic Company.
Today the company has operations in over 35 countries and engineers, manufactures, and markets products used for dispensing adhesives, coatings, sealants, biomaterials, plastics, and other materials, with applications ranging from diapers and straws to cell phones and aerospace.
On December 11th, 2024, Nordson reported fourth quarter results for the period ending October 31st, 2024. For the quarter, the company reported sales of $744 million, 4% higher compared to $719 million in Q4 2023, which was driven by a positive acquisition impact, and offset by organic decrease of 3%.
Industrial Precision saw sales decrease by 3%, while the Medical and Fluid Solutions and Advanced Technology Solutions segments had sales increases of 19% and 5%, respectively.
The company generated adjusted earnings per share of $2.78, a 3% increase compared to the same prior year period.
Hormel Foods is a juggernaut in the food products industry with nearly $10 billion in annual revenue. It has a large portfolio of category-leading brands. Just a few of its top brands include include Skippy, SPAM, Applegate, Justin’s, and more than 30 others.
It has also pursued acquisitions to drive growth. For example, in 2021, Hormel acquired the Planters snack nuts business from Kraft-Heinz (KHC) for $3.35 billion, which has boosted Hormel’s growth.
Hormel posted fourth quarter and full-year earnings on December 4th, 2024, and results were in line with expectations. The company posted adjusted earnings-per-share of 42 cents, which met estimates. Revenue was off 2% year-on-year to $3.14 billion, also hitting estimates.
Operating income was $308 million for the quarter on an adjusted basis, or 9.8% of revenue. Operating cash flow was $409 million for Q4. For the year, sales were $11.9 billion, and adjusted operating income was $1.1 billion, or 9.6% of revenue. Adjusted earnings-per-share was $1.58. Operating cash flow hit a record of $1.3 billion.
Guidance for 2025 was initiated at $11.9 billion to $12.2 billion in sales, with organic net sales growth of 1% to 3%.
Enrolling in DRIP stocks can be a great way to compound your portfolio income over time. Additional resources are listed below for investors interested in further research for DRIP stocks.
For dividend growth investors interested in DRIP stocks, the 15 companies mentioned in this article are a great place to start. Each business is very shareholder friendly, as evidenced by their long dividend histories and their willingness to offer investors no-fee DRIP stocks.
At Sure Dividend, we often advocate for investing in companies with a high probability of increasing their dividends each and every year.
If that strategy appeals to you, it may be useful to browse through the following databases of dividend growth stocks:
The Dividend Kings List is even more exclusive than the Dividend Aristocrats. It is comprised of 54 stocks with 50+ years of consecutive dividend increases.
The High Dividend Stocks List: stocks that appeal to investors interested in the highest yields of 5% or more.
For as long as I can remember, the words “How To” have triggered an irresistible impulse in me to spend money.
How to speak in public… how to be a good writer… how to make money in stocks… how to get rich in real estate… how to be physically fit… how to be a great cook… how to build a big vocabulary… etc.
Every year, people like me spend billions of dollars on “personal development” products. These products promise to teach us “how to” do or have things of value.
There are thousands of personal development books and courses for people with thousands of different goals.
Yet, I believe that when you boil it down, most of us in the “personal development” crowd buy those books, courses, and newsletters for one simple reason…
Because we want more personal power.
I’m not talking about the kind of power that dictators and politicians crave.
Not the kind of power to order people around all day.
I’m talking about positive power that gives you control over your own life… power to do what you want and have what you want… whether it be money, respect, love, sex, free time, acclaim, or freedom.
I’m talking about the power to impress and please people. I’m talking the kind of power that ensures you’ll never be at the mercy of a crazy boss, a crappy job, a creditor, or some bogus limitation placed on you by conventional thinkers.
I’m talking about the kind of power that allows you to shape the world around you.
Of course, laws, morals, and good manners ensure we can’t run amok and do whatever we want all the time. But there’s a general sense of freedom and power over one’s life that most reasonable people want.
We want to pick up and move to a new state if we want to.
We want to buy a car or a nice meal whenever we want to.
We want to be able to leave work on a Tuesday morning and hang out with our families or binge watch Game of Thrones if we want to.
We want the option to say, “Screw it” and walk away from a bad job or a bad business.
Working on my personal development has made me a success by conventional measures. I have a great family and great friends. I live in a big house in an expensive neighborhood (paid for with cash). I became a multi-millionaire in my 30s.
But I’ve also enjoyed a lot of “unconventional” success as well. It has meant far more to me than material things.
Since I got out of high school in 1995, I’ve done pretty much whatever the hell I’ve wanted to do.
I’ve quit three jobs simply because I wanted to do something else or take very long vacations. I’ve spent months motorcycling across America. I’ve traveled the world. I’ve taken the time to read hundreds of great books. I’ve written four books, mostly because I liked the subjects.
In other words, I’ve enjoyed a lot of power and freedom.
I’ll never be on the front page of Forbes magazine, but if living life on your own terms is a measure of success, then I’ve had a lot of success. No bank, no boss, no investor, no employee, no customer has ever made me do something I really didn’t want to do. I’ve always had the power to say “no” or “yes.”
If you’re interested in acquiring more power and freedom, I believe you’ll find that InvestorPlace can be incredible resource for you.
We publish research reports, daily e-letters, books, and educational materials, with a simple goal in mind: To provide you with ideas and tools that will help you acquire more wealth, more power, more knowledge, and more freedom…
To help you build your personal financial empire.
As you’ll quickly learn, we’re our firm doesn’t stick to “just” actionable investment research and recommendations.
What we do is vastly more important than that.
We’re also committed to helping investors acquire a unique state of mind… an enlightened view of wealth and investment. To that end, we’ve created a large amount of educational material that can help anyone become a smarter, richer investor… a builder of their own financial empire.
The way of the empire builder is rooted one critical idea:
If you want to be rich, spend your time acquiring assets. If you want to be poor, spend your time acquiring liabilities.
Staying true to its dynamic and evolving nature, the crypto sector has recently witnessed the rapid rise of a new technology: AI Web3 agents. Best described as intelligent, self-operating software systems, they are capable of reshaping how people interact with decentralized technologies.
For starters, they can execute complex financial strategies with unprecedented precision and efficiency, transcending the human limitations of constant market monitoring and decision-making — thus introducing a new foundation for intelligent, round-the-clock financial management.
In fact, as of December 2024, these agents have already established a significant foothold within the global blockchain fray, with approx. 10,000 of them have gone live across various networks. Moreover, Industry experts predict an exponential growth trajectory for these offerings, with some reports anticipating over 1 million operational agents by the end of 2025.
Total revenue associated with AI agents over 5 weeks totaled $8.7 million (source: VanEck)
These numbers aren’t simply whimsical but rooted in hard facts. For example, several reports suggest that the AI agents market attained a valuation of $5.4 billion last year, a figure that is set to surge to $50.31 billion by 2030. All of this has been fueled by advancements in automation technologies, natural language processing, and cloud computing infrastructures.
Mitigating risks through intelligent automation
While the crypto market is undoubtedly notorious for its high levels of volatility and operational complexities, AI Web3 agents — through their deployment of advanced ML algorithms and real-time data processing capabilities — are able to execute automated stop-loss orders, detecting and responding to market movements faster than any human trader.
Additionally, by continuously monitoring blockchain activities, social media sentiment, and exchange order books, they can identify suspicious patterns that might signal potential market manipulations, protocol exploits, or impending price crashes. Last but not least, these agents are also capable of instantaneously rebalancing asset allocations across multiple blockchains, tokens, and yield-farming opportunities.
They can optimize investment strategies by analyzing real-time performance metrics, volatility indicators, and cross-chain correlations, ensuring that investment portfolios remain resilient and adaptable in the face of rapidly changing market conditions. And, while there are a few platforms trying to meld these seemingly disparate realms under one roof, they have had to often compromise on certain security aspects.
Amidst all of these developments, Giza has emerged as an essential infrastructure provider powering such autonomous financial markets. The platform is designed to unify the fragmented decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem while enabling efficient capital flow without continuous human intervention.
Giza’s innovative approach is built on three core technological innovations that set it apart from traditional financial platforms. First is a semantic abstraction layer that transforms complex protocol interactions into standardized operations, allowing agents to reason about and execute financial strategies naturally.
Secondly, there is an advanced agent authorization layer, constructed atop a smart account infrastructure, enabling non-custodial agent operations through granular permission management. This means users maintain complete control of their assets while granting agents specific operational authority through session keys and programmable authorization policies.
The platform’s third critical innovation is a decentralized execution layer, secured through its EigenLayer integration, creating quantifiable consequences for malicious behavior while simultaneously incentivizing correct execution through protocol rewards.
Key metrics associated with the Giza ecosystem
Lastly, it bears mentioning that Giza’s flagship product, ARMA — touted as Web3’s first autonomous financial agent — has already showcased the transformative potential of this approach. Operating 24/7 across multiple protocols, ARMA currently manages over $700,000 (achieved in just three weeks), deployed 14,500+ financial agents, and executed 27,000+ autonomous transactions without any human input.
Moreover, the platform’s strategic partnerships with leading blockchain ecosystems like Base, EigenLayer, Starknet, AAVE, and Morpho have further validated its technological prowess and market potential.
Exploring the future of AI Web3 agents
Market predictions suggest that tokens associated with AI agents could reach a total market capitalization of $60 billion by the end of this year. Therefore, as this convergence of AI, DeFi, and the blockchain continues to occur, it will be interesting to see how the future pans out.
For now, the coming few years promise an ecosystem where financial management becomes more accessible, efficient, and intelligent for everyone. In this context, AI Web3 agents stand at the forefront of this revolution, offering a glimpse into a world where autonomous systems work tirelessly to optimize investors’ financial strategies and mitigate risks. Interesting times ahead!
The Dividend Aristocrats are 69 companies in the S&P 500 Index that have raised their dividends for at least 25 years in a row. Over the decades, many of these companies have become huge multi-national corporations.
We created a full list of all Dividend Aristocrats and important financial metrics like price-to-earnings ratios and dividend yields. You can download your copy of the Dividend Aristocrats list by clicking on the link below:
Disclaimer: Sure Dividend is not affiliated with S&P Global in any way. S&P Global owns and maintains The Dividend Aristocrats Index. The information in this article and downloadable spreadsheet is based on Sure Dividend’s own review, summary, and analysis of the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) and other sources, and is meant to help individual investors better understand this ETF and the index upon which it is based. None of the information in this article or spreadsheet is official data from S&P Global. Consult S&P Global for official information.
Kenvue Inc. (KVUE) is a recent addition to the Dividend Aristocrats list, having been spun off from former parent company Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) in 2023.
As a spin-off, Kenvue carries its former parent company’s dividend growth history, and is a Dividend Aristocrat.
This article will analyze Kenvue’s business model, future growth catalysts, and expected returns.
Business Overview
Kenvue operates in the healthcare sector as a consumer products manufacturer. In May 2023, Kenvue was spun off from Johnson & Johnson. Now, Kenvue operates three segments: Self Care, Skin Health & Beauty, and Essential Health.
Self-care’s product portfolio includes cough, cold, allergy, smoking cessation, and pain care products, among others. Skin Health & Beauty holds products for the face, body, hair, and sun.
Essential Health contains products for women’s health, wound care, oral care, and baby care.
Kenvue’s well-known brands include Tylenol, Listerine, Band-Aid, Neutrogena, Nicorette, and Zyrtec.
On February 6th, 2025, Kenvue reported fourth-quarter and full year earnings results.
Revenue decreased 0.1% to $3.66 billion, which was was $109 million less than expected. Adjusted earnings-per-share totaled $0.26, which was down from $0.31 in the prior year, but was in-line with estimates.
For the year, revenue grew 0.1% to $15.5 billion while adjusted earnings-per-share of $1.14 compared to $1.29 in 2023.
Organic sales grew 1.7% for the quarter and 1.5% for the year. Pricing and mix added 1% to quarterly sales growth while volume improved 0.7%. Skin Health & Beauty and Self Care were positive for the quarter, but this was offset by weaker results from essential health. The gross profit margin expanded 80 basis points to 56.5%.
Kenvue provided guidance for 2025 as well. The company expects revenue growth to be in a range of -1.0% to 1.0% and adjusted earnings-per-share are projected to be higher by 2%. We anticipate that the company can earn $1.15 per share in 2025.
Growth Prospects
Prior to the spin-off, Johnson & Johnson produced annual earnings growth of 7% from 2013 to 2022, as the company’s diversification allowed it to be one of the more stable companies in the marketplace.
Today, Kenvue consists of just the consumer products businesses, which have often produced the lowest growth rates.
For its part, Kenvue management expects the company to generate organic revenue growth around 3%- 4% per year over the long term. Therefore, we expect Kenvue to grow earnings-per-share by 3% annually through 2030.
Johnson & Johnson’s dividend growth streak of more than six decades is one of the longest in the marketplace. Including the company’s dividend increase announced last summer, Kenvue has a dividend growth streak of 62 years. This qualifies Kenvue as both a Dividend King and a Dividend Aristocrat.
We believe that the penchant for dividend growth is part of Kenvue’s business DNA.
Competitive Advantages & Recession Performance
Kenvue’s former parent company Johnson & Johnson has proven to be one of the most successful companies at navigating recessions.
Though Kenvue no longer benefits from its parent company’s diversification, we believe that it would prove equally effective at handling economic downturns.
Since Kenvue was a subsidiary of Johnson & Johnson during the Great Recession of 2008-2009, there is no data on its earnings-per-share performance during that time.
However, investors can reasonably infer that Kenvue would display a similar degree of resilience during recessions as its former parent company.
The company’s products, such as Band-Aid and Tylenol, are needed regardless of the state of the economy as they directly affect consumers’ health and well-being. As trusted products, they would like to continue to perform well even under adverse conditions.
Overall, Kenvue should continue to raise its dividend for many more years thanks to its low payout ratio, decent recessions resilience, and healthy balance sheet.
Valuation & Expected Returns
We expect Kenvue to generate adjusted earnings-per-share of $1.15 for 2025. Therefore, shares of Kenvue currently trade for a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.
For context, Johnson & Johnson shares have an average price-to-earnings ratio of close to 19 since 2013.
Countering the fact that Kenvue holds some of the industry-leading brands and that its products were lower-margin businesses within the parent company, we have a target price-to-earnings ratio of 14 for the stock.
This implies a future headwind from P/E multiple contraction.
Therefore, if the stock were to reach our target multiple by 2030, valuation could reduce annual returns by 6.9%. EPS growth (estimated at 3% per year) and the dividend yield will generate positive returns.
On July 20th, 2023, Kenvue announced its first-ever quarterly dividend of $0.20 per share. The company raised its dividend 2.5% on July 25th, 2024. The annualized payout of $0.82 per share represents a current yield of 3.6%.
Putting it all together, total returns are expected to be just 0.1% annually through 2030.
Final Thoughts
Kenvue is a relatively new addition to the Dividend Aristocrats list. After decades as part of Johnson & Johnson, Kenvue became an independent entity in 2023.
While we find the legacy business recession-resistant and the high dividend yield attractive for income investors, the total return profile is not high enough for a buy or even a hold recommendation. Due to valuation, we rate KVUE stock as a sell.
Additionally, the following Sure Dividend databases contain the most reliable dividend growers in our investment universe:
The Dividend Champions: Dividend stocks with 25+ years of dividend increases, including those that may not qualify as Dividend Aristocrats.
The Best DRIP Stocks: The top 15 Dividend Aristocrats with no-fee dividend reinvestment plans.
If you’re looking for stocks with unique dividend characteristics, consider the following Sure Dividend databases:
The major domestic stock market indices are another solid resource for finding investment ideas. Sure Dividend compiles the following stock market databases and updates them monthly:
Thanks for reading this article. Please send any feedback, corrections, or questions to [email protected].
Here at Investor Place, we like to think that our products and services are more about a unique state of mind and a unique way of life as opposed to collections of stock recommendations.
You might find that idea intriguing, since InvestorPlace features many world-class investment analysts who recommend stocks.
To clarify, stock recommendations can be a wonderful wealth-building tool. But let’s not miss the bigger picture. Our allegiance is to helping our readers and subscribers create a financial life that serves them. To do this, we need to be clear and direct about what really matters when it comes to building wealth.
And the truth?
Stock recommendations are far less impactful on your overall financial situation than what I’m about to share with you. That’s not to say stocks aren’t important – they can be. But they’re further down the list when it comes to helping you design a life of financial independence.
So, in this essay, we’ll focus on a massive “needle changing” factor that can make all the difference in your financial life.
The way of the investor looking to build a financial empire – and the beginning of your path to true wealth – is rooted one critical idea:
If you want to be rich, spend your time acquiring assets. If you want to be poor, spend your time acquiring liabilities.
We believe the best and easiest way to understand this idea is through the lesson of the Great Pyramid.
When it was completed in 2504 BC, everything about Egypt’s Great Pyramid of Giza was stunning.
Built as a tomb for the pharaoh Khufu, the pyramid was 480 feet tall, the equivalent of a 44-story skyscraper. This made it the tallest structure on Earth, a title it held for 3,800 years.
At the base, each side of the pyramid was 756 feet long, more than two football fields in length. Its more than two million limestone blocks weigh over six million tons. This made it also the heaviest structure on the planet, a title it holds today.
The pyramid’s smooth, polished sides gleamed like a jewel in the sun… and could be seen from miles away. To ancient visitors, it was a supernatural vision. People wept in its presence. Humans had never built anything so large and striking.
According to the Greek historian Herodotus, the pyramid took 20 years to build and required the labor of 100,000 men (later estimates peg it around 25,000). Contrary to early claims, the pyramid wasn’t built by slaves. It was built by skilled laborers who were compensated for their work.
These people had a wide variety of skills. Engineers, architects, surveyors, stone masons, and artists all contributed to the structure. Keeping them all clothed, fed, and housed required another army of workers.
Directing the efforts of tens of thousands of people to cut, shape, transport, lift, and place with precision all those massive blocks was greatest coordination of human effort the world had ever seen. It left behind the only surviving member of the Seven Wonders of the World.
When you consider that a manmade structure is lucky to survive just 450 years in our world of constant change, you have to acknowledge building something that lasts 4,500 years is really quite an achievement.
If you can appreciate the manpower that went into building the Great Pyramid, you’re well on your way to understanding one of the great secrets of life…an incredible force, that when harnessed, can make virtually all your dreams come true.
People who harness this force gain an incredible advantage over others. They sprint in the race to success while those around them crawl. They become kings among men.
In fact, if you held a gun to our heads and made us pick one idea that separates the poor from the rich and the sorry from the successful, this is the idea we’d pick. It is the hidden engine that creates lives abundant in wealth and personal power.
Best of all, anyone can use this force. It’s mostly the rich that use this force, but they do not have a monopoly on it.
Despite the power of this force, it’s not taught in school… and most parents never even think about it.
Back to the Great Pyramid…
Remember, it took the effort of tens of thousands of people to build the thing. The world’s greatest engineers and builders spent a good part of their lives making it a reality.
Now… imagine if just one person tried to build the Great Pyramid.
It’s a ludicrous idea, we know. The project would be over before it starts.
Yet… thinking about this ludicrous idea could change your life.
In less than 10 minutes, it could help you acquire one of the greatest advantages anyone can have in life.
You see, every year, hundreds of millions of people around the world try to improve their lot in life through the effort of just one person, themselves.
The office worker has only his efforts behind a keyboard working for him. The plumber has only his efforts with the pipes working for him. The lawyer has only his efforts with documents and juries working for him.
No matter the career, most everyone you meet in life has the measly effort of just one human being directed towards making his or her financial dreams a reality.
Is there a better way to achieve financial freedom and get what you want? What if you could direct 100 times more effort toward the achievement of your goals?
What if you could get thousands of people working on your financial pyramid… instead of just one person?
There is a better way to get what you want in life… and yes, you can massively increase the amount of effort that is put to work every day towards your financial goals.
In fact, it’s possible to get dozens… hundreds – even thousands – of people working towards the goal of making you rich and financially free. Hundreds of thousands of people have done it throughout the years. Those people have ruled the world… and continue to do so.
You might as well join them… by becoming a business owner.
You see, not many business owners and entrepreneurs talk openly about it, but owning a business essentially comes down to harnessing the efforts of others and directing them towards the happy goal of you being rich.
No MBA course and no college professor will describe business ownership in such blunt and politically incorrect terms, but the underlying reason that owning a business is the ultimate path to wealth is because it’s a “neat trick” played on others. It gets other people sweating and toiling to make you rich. In return for agreeing to build your business and make you wealthy, the employees get steady paychecks and the freedom to not have to think all that hard or take big risks.
This agreement isn’t discussed in job interviews, job ads, resumes, or HR materials, but it’s the foundation of the business owner/employee relationship.
An offer from business owner to job candidate never goes like, “I’d like to offer you the chance to work very hard at making me rich,” but that’s really what it boils down to.
The founder of Microsoft, Bill Gates, was good at building software. But he became a billionaire because he convinced people to create and sell software for him. His employees got steady paychecks and security. Gates got billions.
The founder of Ford Motor, Henry Ford become one of the world’s richest men not by building cars with his own hands… but by convincing other people to build cars for him. His employees got steady paychecks and security. Ford got more money than he knew what to do with.
And the legendary Steve Jobs? Sure… he was brilliant and creative. But he leveraged his skills more than 10,000-fold by convincing people to make and sell phones for his company. Apples employees received steady paychecks. Steve received truckloads of money.
These very wealthy guys didn’t try to build the Great Pyramid on their own. They convinced others to do it for them.
This mindset is the world’s greatest wealth secret.
The stories of Gates, Ford, and Jobs are exceptional of course. Not every business owner becomes a billionaire. They don’t need to. Convincing just a half dozen people to direct their efforts towards making you rich can build a great small business that generates millions of dollars in profit for you.
For the record, I’m not saying being an employee is a bad thing. Far from it. Being an employee early in your career allows you to learn valuable skills while getting paid. It allows you to make mistakes and learn on someone else’s dime. Some employees, like pro athletes and bankers, can become fabulously wealthy without owning a thing.
Also, there’s no guaranteeing that being a business owner will make you happy. Being a business owner can be a miserable experience. Many employees are far happier than many business owners.
But if you really want to be financially free and have lots of control over your life, you can’t settle for the effort of just one person. You need hundreds… even thousands of people working on your goal for you.
We state again: If you want to be wealthy and financially free, don’t direct the measly efforts of just one person (you) towards building the Great Pyramid. Own one or more businesses and get dozens… hundreds… even thousands of people stacking blocks for you.
At this point, I encourage you to stop reading for a moment. Go back and read the previous three pages. It will only take a few minutes.
I’d like for you to re-read the previous three pages because it’s the single most important lesson on wealth you’ll ever learn. This could be one those “A Ha!” moments that changes your life for the better. I don’t want you to miss it.
Also, you might be like me and learn best through repetition. If that’s the case, please read the section three or four times. I’m not exaggerating when I say it could change your life forever.
After you read it again, think on the idea for a while. It’s simple, but extremely powerful. You can struggle your whole life with the efforts of just one person working towards your financial goals… and stack a small pile of small stones. Or, you can direct the efforts of dozens, hundreds, even thousands of people towards your financial goals… and build pyramids.
The effort of one vs. the effort of thousands. It’s simple math.
The rich do the math and act accordingly.
The poor and middle class never think about it.
It’s the simple difference between always having more than you know what to do with and always struggling to get by.
If you don’t read another word of our materials and just start convincing other people to make you rich by working in a profitable business that you own (wholly or partially), you’ll be way better off than the person who spends thousands of hours reading books and books about wealth and investing.
The five minutes you spend learning the lesson of the Great Pyramid are an extreme shortcut to success.
Wednesday brought its fair share of key updates. The White House rolled out 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, effective immediately, with zero exemptions. The European Union hit back with tariffs on a range of goods—steel, aluminum, textiles, home appliances, agricultural products, and even iconic American staples like motorcycles, bourbon, peanut butter, and jeans, echoing the trade spats of Trump 45’. On the data front, U.S. CPI cooled slightly to 2.8% YoY. The Bank of Canada (BoC) responded to economic uncertainties with a rate cut to 2.75% as widely expected. And right after the decision, Canada’s Finance Minister announced retaliatory tariffs on U.S. steel, aluminum, and items like computers, sports equipment, and cast-iron products. The Loonie reacted on the hectic day with a 120-pip intraday swing, with a high of 1.448 and a subsequent move down to 1.436 during North American trading hours.
Three key takeaways from the day’s events:
BoC’s Policy Stance: the BoC reiterated that monetary policy alone cannot shield the economy from the fallout of a trade war. However, it remains committed to preventing trade-induced inflation from becoming entrenched. Governor Macklem emphasized a forward-looking approach to navigate the uncertainty around inflation: weaker economic growth may alleviate inflation, but trade uncertainties, a depreciating Loonie, and counter-tariffs could drive it higher. The central bank faces a challenging task ahead, with target rate likely to remain steady at its next meeting on April 16th.
Consumer and Business Sentiments: findings from the BoC’s latest survey reveal that mere threats of trade disruptions have prompted Canadian businesses and households to respond preemptively. Many are saving more, cutting discretionary spending, delaying long-term investments. Also, half of businesses surveyed plan to increase their prices if tariffs are imposed on their inputs or products and inflation expectations among both consumers and businesses are coming up higher.
U.S. Treasuries’ Response: following the U.S. CPI report, yields on 10-year Treasuries rose, but why? This reaction stems from skepticism about whether the weakness in airfares, which brought CPI lower, will influence the Fed’s preferred PCE index. Furthermore, recent upticks in core goods inflation, a key driver of disinflation in 2023, signal that tariffs could intensify price pressures here first.
Today markets will be focused on US PPI, expected to drop from 3.5% to 3.3% YoY as well as the discussion within the Senate to approve a government funding bill to avoid a shutdown. In Canada, January’s reading on Building permits will be of relevance.
Inflation data overshadowed by tariff threat
George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist
There was a brief reprieve in risk sentiment yesterday following some good news on US inflation. But the rally in stocks and bonds fizzled out as the details of the consumer price inflation prints were less rosy, whilst global trade war fears escalated. The US dollar index snapped a 7-day decline but remains close to pre-election levels. Meanwhile, US producer price inflation data today might muddy the disinflation narrative, which could make life harder for the Federal Reserve (Fed).
Canada and the EU are responding to the blanket US tariffs on steel and aluminium in a sign that the global trade war is ratcheting up. The 3.7% decline in the dollar so far this month, coupled with the falls in US stocks and their under-performance relative to other countries, reflect a remarkable turnaround in investors’ views about the economic outlook for America and Europe. However, a surprisingly cool set of February US consumer price inflation prints m/m pulled the annual rate of headline inflation down to 2.8% from 3% while core inflation dips to 3.1% from 3.3%. This halted the stock selloff that had put the S&P 500 on the verge of a correction. The details are less rosy though with a substantial 4% m/m drop in air fares (highly volatile) the main factor driving the softer inflation readings. Moreover, there’s brewing anecdotal evidence of firms pre-emptively raising prices ahead of potential tariffs with this week’s NFIB survey reporting a 10 point jump in the proportion of companies raising prices. The risk here is that core inflation starts to reverse and move higher again in coming months.
Tariff fears are already seeing companies nudging prices higher and risk higher inflation readings over the summer, which would further complicate the Fed’s policy decision making amidst growing recession fears. In addition, key components from the producer price index, published today, that enter into the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, are expected to have accelerated from January. This will make it harder for the Fed to cut despite slowing US economic activity. Thus, the outlook for equities and broader risk appetite remains grim.
Will Trump stop the euro rally?
Boris Kovacevic – Global Macro Strategist
The euro’s rally lost some momentum yesterday, slipping below the $1.09 mark. While broader risk sentiment improved after softer US inflation data, European markets faced renewed trade tensions and political uncertainty. President Trump made it clear that he intends to retaliate against the EU’s countermeasures on his 25% steel and aluminum tariffs. This tit-for-tat will raise the already elevated tensions between both regions and could limit the upside on the euro for now.
Meanwhile, German bond markets continue to send a strong signal. The 10-year Bund yield surged past 2.9%, reaching its highest level in nearly 13 years as negotiations over expanded government borrowing intensified. The Greens remain hesitant to fully back the fiscal expansion proposed by the CDU/CSU-led coalition, but alternative proposals suggest a compromise could be within reach. If secured, this could pave the way for a significant boost to Germany’s defense and infrastructure spending—an economic shift that has already started to reshape investor sentiment toward the Eurozone.
For now, EUR/USD remains supported by the broader shift in sentiment away from the dollar, but trade risks are becoming harder to ignore. If Trump retaliates further, it could weigh on European equities and the euro in the short term. However, if a German fiscal deal comes through, it may provide another boost for European assets, especially as US growth concerns mount. Investors will closely watch any new developments on both fronts in the coming days.
Within a whisker of $1.30
George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist
Sterling climbed to a fresh 3-month peak of $1.2988 on Wednesday, within a whisker of the key $1.30 level, which it has been below for 60% of the time over the past five years. GBP/USD is up 3% month-to-date, and almost two cents above its 5-year average of $1.28, but is still trading within the overbought zone indicated by the 14-day relative strength index. GBP/EUR also snapped a run of six consecutive daily losses as focus turned to EU-US trade war risks following the EU’s retaliation to US tariffs.
While downside risks for the euro and Eurozone economy have diminished due to hopes of huge fiscal reforms, the tariff theme remains a significant near-term risk for the common currency, which appears to be limiting the euro’s gains against the pound. We’re still keeping a close eye on the 50-week moving average, currently located at €1.1888. If GBP/EUR closes the week below this level, we think a slide towards €1.1740 is feasible over the coming month. Otherwise, the pair might stay bound to a tight range given real rate differentials suggests €1.19 is fair value. We think there may be more scope of the pound to stay resilient against the dollar though as currency traders parse where relative interest rates are likely headed over the next six months. Both the Fed and Bank of England (BoE) meet next week, and whilst there’s little chance that either central bank will cut, markets are pricing in around three cuts by the Fed later this year versus an expectation of just two by the BoE.
Indeed, with UK inflation having bounced back and inflation breakeven rates suggesting that increases in retail prices over the next two years are likely to hover close to 4%, the BoE may well decide to defer its next rate reduction. This has already sent nominal yields in the UK relative to those in the US surging in recent weeks, underpinning GBP/USD. As mentioned above though, the pound is in overbought territory so is vulnerable to traders taking some money off the table in the very short term.
*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
The warm reception of the first Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds or ETFs has highlighted not just the growing acceptance of cryptocurrency in general, but also the intersection of digital assets within the traditional investment space.
It has been just over a year since the first Bitcoin ETFs went live in January 2024, and during that time they experienced growth that’s unprecedented by any other financial instrument.
That much was made clear by the next-generation hybrid crypto exchange GRVT, which revealed in a recent blog post that the world’s Bitcoin ETFs now manage over $130 billion worth of assets.
Leading the way is BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, which has grown like wildfire over the last year, with almost $60 billion worth of assets now under management. As institutional investors have poured money into these ETFs, their operators have bought up millions of Bitcoins from the open market to support those investments, helping the price of BTC to reach a record-breaking $109,000 earlier this year.
GRVT notes a stark contrast between the first-year performance of Bitcoin ETFs and the first gold-backed ETFs that became available in 2004. Gold has long enjoyed an almost unrivaled status as a kind of investor haven or island of stability during economic downturns, becoming the de facto vehicle for riding out the volatility of the financial markets.
However, the Bitcoin ETFs have emerged as viable alternatives, and their debut year saw them accumulate value far faster than the first Gold ETFs ever did. Back in their first year, Gold ETFs pulled in $3.45 billion in investor capital, a drop in the ocean compared to the amount raked in by the Bitcoin ETFs, underlining their positioning as an alternative store of value.
This astonishing growth shows us that Bitcoin ETFs are most definitely not a bubble, as traditional institutions recognize how they’re transforming the fundamental nature of financial markets.
Impact On Financial Markets
BlackRock has been joined by Franklin Templeton, Fidelity, and several other traditional financial powerhouses in creating Bitcoin ETFs, making the world’s top cryptocurrency accessible to mainstream investors through regulated stock markets. And they have had a profound impact on both Bitcoin itself, and the wider investment landscape.
One of the most noticeable changes was the effect Bitcoin ETFs had on the amount of liquidity in crypto markets. By making it easier for institutional investors to jump into and out of Bitcoin, the ETFs have exposed the cryptocurrency to a much wider and richer audience of investors, including many who have previously always avoided traditional crypto exchanges due to fears over asset security and the lack of regulation in the industry. As a result, Bitcoin has become more liquid, making it easier than ever for people to buy and sell these assets.
In addition, Bitcoin ETFs are reshaping the behavior of traditional hedge funds and asset managers. By providing them with crypto-based competition, they’ve forced these older asset managers into a rethink, and many have responded by adding Bitcoin ETFs into their portfolios to keep up with the times.
In addition to asset managers, we’re seeing pension funds and hedge funds dip their toes into the crypto markets for the first time as well. These kinds of investors had long been holdouts, wary of investing in crypto due to the lack of regulatory clarity and their volatile nature. ETFs, in contrast, offer the safety of regulation and have helped to bring greater stability to digital assets, meeting the requirements of more institutions.
That explains why Bitcoin ETFs have scrambled to buy more than 500,000 Bitcoins from the open market, which amounts to approximately 2.5% of all of the BTC in circulation on public exchanges. This helps to strengthen the value of Bitcoin as it removes more supply from circulation, increasing its scarcity.
At the same time, the legitimacy of Bitcoin ETFs has paved the way for a growing number of institutions to explore the option of holding digital assets directly. GRVT reports that it has signed up a growing number of institutional investors as customers in the last year, including the likes of Galaxy Trading Asia, QCP, Arbelos, Ampersan, Amber Group, IMC, Flow Traders, Pulsar and Selini, to name just a few.
What’s Next For Bitcoin ETFs?
Despite their rapid adoption, experts say Bitcoin ETFs still face some significant challenges, most notably around the fluid regulatory landscape of crypto in general. Any changes to the legalities of crypto could seriously undermine the value of Bitcoin ETFs, which is why the SEC was originally so cautious about approving them.
The general volatility of crypto also remains a concern, and that explains why some funds – particularly retirement accounts – have so far shied away from Bitcoin ETFs. Of course, that’s one area where real gold still has a strong advantage, as its price is far more stable than Bitcoin’s.
The positive market reception of Bitcoin ETFs and the optimism around new U.S. President Donald Trump’s favorable stance on crypto has led to increased speculation that more crypto ETFs could win approval in the coming years. Recently, the SEC approved its first-ever Bitcoin and Ethereum combination ETF, and there is lots of talk about a Solana ETF, among others. New crypto ETF products should find it much easier to gain SEC approval given that there’s already a model in place.
As more crypto ETFs are approved, we can expect to see the crypto markets flooded with even more institutional capital, as they will expand the available opportunity, giving rise to more complex financial strategies and options for portfolio diversification and risk management. This would likely lead to even further integration of Bitcoin and other digital assets within traditional finance, with positive impacts on their growing adoption.
Bitcoin ETFs & The Future Of Finance
As GRVT points out, there’s a rising consensus that Bitcoin ETFs are not just some flash in the pan, but rather a key milestone that helps to cement the legitimacy of cryptocurrency assets in the eyes of institutional investors.
No longer is Bitcoin seen as a highly volatile and speculative asset, or dismissed as “fool’s gold”. Instead, it sits alongside gold itself on some of the world’s biggest exchanges, where it’s increasingly seen as a driving force in financial innovation.
The future for Bitcoin ETFs looks bright. As they become more established, they will continue to chip away at traditional gold’s status as the asset of choice for riding out economic uncertainty. Bitcoin’s built-in deflationary mechanisms should ensure that the value of its ETFs grows along the way, creating a virtuous cycle that reinforces its growing role in the traditional investment landscape.
Wholesale egg prices rose 53.6% in February from January.
Gas prices dropped 4.7%, leaving an index of producer prices flat over the month.
Wholesale prices are a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, but the outlook for the coming months is overshadowed by President Donald Trump’s tariffs, which could push up prices.
An index measuring wholesale prices was unchanged in February from January, as falling gas prices and rising egg prices canceled each other out.
The Producer Price Index stayed flat in February after rising a revised 0.6% in January, as gas prices fell 4.7% and egg prices rose 53.6%. Forecasters had expected a 0.3% increase, according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
The data shows inflation pressures simmering down faster than expected just before President Donald Trump roiled the inflation outlook in March by imposing, revoking, and promising an array of tariffs against U.S. trading partners that could push up prices if they are actually put into effect. Producer prices influence what consumers pay once products reach the shelves and are considered a leading indicator of consumer price changes.
“The moderation in February conforms with expectations that inflation is set to cool in the coming months before trade tensions start pushing prices upward, though next month’s report will confirm whether February’s softness was a one-off,” Justin Begley, an economist at Moody’s Analytics, wrote in a commentary.
Evidence of cooling inflation could influence officials at the Federal Reserve, who meet next week to set the key fed funds rate, which influences borrowing costs on all kinds of loans.
The Fed has held rates high to discourage spending and stifle inflation but also aims to prevent a severe rise in unemployment. Cooling inflation gives the Fed more leeway to cut rates and boost the economy if Trump’s trade wars start to damage the job market.
Financial markets expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady at the policy committee’s meeting next week, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which forecasts rate movements based on fed funds futures trading data.
