All posts by PARKERYL

If you’re a fan of college basketball, then you’re likely familiar with the term “March Madness.” It’s seven rounds of a single-elimination tournament where 68 teams go head-to-head for the national championship.

Well, the tournament kicks off tonight for the men’s bracket and starts tomorrow for the women’s. But basketball fans aren’t the only folks going through some March Madness right now…

You see, as I write this, the S&P 500, the Dow and NASDAQ are all down 8.5%, 6.95% and 12.6%, respectively, for March. But the tides could change this week. The reality is we have a couple of items on the docket that could change the tone of the market…

I should note that yesterday we had a fresh retail sales report. It showed that headline retail sales rose 0.2% in February, missing expectations for a 0.6% rise. Additionally, retail sales for January were revised lower from a prior reading of 0.9% to a 1.2% decline.

Now, the “control group” in this report excludes a few volatile categories in the retail sector, and it actually showed a 1% rise. Economists were expecting a 0.4% gain. That’s significant, because this gets factored into the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ gross domestic product (GDP) estimate for the quarter.

Meanwhile, NVIDIA Corporation’s (NVDA) GTC event started today. CEO Jensen Huang kicked things off with the opening remarks this afternoon. Look for my follow-up Market 360 later this week, because I expect there to be some big announcements during this conference – especially with Thursday’s Quantum Computing Day.

Lastly, we have the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting beginning today, with the latest interest rate decision coming tomorrow. While I’ll cover all the important things to note from this meeting in Market 360, know that there are two key things I will be watching…

First, any comments on the Trump tariffs. The Federal Reserve is guaranteed to address these, but the question remains: Do they change how the Fed sees the economy?

Second, as it is almost certain the Fed will keep rates unchanged, I am most interested in looking at the latest “dot plot” chart. As I have said, I am expecting four key interest rate cuts this year. And while I don’t expect the dot plot to show this (the Fed isn’t looking that far out), it will be interesting to see where they currently stand.

Written by Steven Dooley, Head of Market Insights, and Shier Lee Lim, Lead FX and Macro Strategist

USD mostly lower, but Aussie and kiwi slip from highs  

The US dollar was weaker overnight with the USD index falling to four-month lows ahead of tonight’s all-important US Federal Reserve decision.

The greenback followed US shares lower with key stockmarket indexes down overnight after a two-day rally was brought to an end. US shares remain in a short-term downtrend as investors worry about a slowdown in US data and the impact of tariffs on the US economy.

The US dollar was mostly weaker in Europe and versus safe havens like the Swiss franc and Japanese yen.

The Aussie and kiwi slipped ahead of the Fed decision, however, with both markets reversing after recent strong gains.

Ahead of the Fed, markets will be looking to the Bank of Japan today in Asia trade

All eyes on Fed meeting

The Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for this Thursday at 5:00am AEDT.

The Fed will probably adopt a cautious stance at its March meeting due to downside risks to growth and trade policy uncertainties.

The median dots should essentially stay the same, indicating two rate reductions this year. The recent slowdown in economic momentum is probably acknowledged in the statement.

We believe the Fed will likely maintain rates at their current level until 2025 due to tariff-driven inflation. Nonetheless, the Fed can afford to be conservative in reversing cut pricing as market mood is tense and there is little excitement around the May meeting.

Looking at USD/SGD, it is now at four-month lows. We expect range bound price action for USD/SGD in the short term.

The next key daily resistance levels are at the 200-day EMA 1.3398 and 50-day 1.3426, where SGD buyers may look to take advantage.

IDR resilience amid regulatory reforms

This Wednesday at 18:30 AEDT, Indonesia will publish its policy rate.

We anticipate that BI will maintain the policy rate at 5.75% due to growing fiscal risks, internal policy worries, and repeated IDR underperformance brought on by increased external uncertainties and more US tariff pronouncements. 

These should help contain rupiah weakness and support the case for a continued easing cycle by BI.

USD/IDR is now trailing the key 50-day MA support of 16,2893.41. USD sellers may look to take advantage at key resistance 16738, its highs of April 2020.

Aussie, kiwi slip from recent highs  

Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges  

Key global risk events

Calendar: 17 – 22 March  

All times AEDT

Have a question? [email protected]

*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.

Dyslin, Global CIO and President of Global Investments, discusses managing yen exposure, the role of private investments in the insurance giant’s $100 billion portfolio, and big insurance M&As.

Global Finance: You oversee Aflac’s investment portfolio of about $100 billion, the bulk of which is in Japan, where the company has a large presence. What big changes have you seen there in recent years?

Brad Dyslin: Roughly three-quarters of all things Aflac are Japan-related, as it pertains to my world—earnings, cash flow and investment assets. The biggest change we’ve seen over the last few years in Japan has been interest rates. They had been extremely low for at least the last 25 years, even before the financial crisis. Ten-year government bond interest rates were below 2%, and then they went negative in 2016. That also happened in a few places in Europe, but Japan kept its interest rates very low for a very long time as it tried to stimulate the economy and to rekindle inflation.

Today, we’re finally seeing that happen. Inflation has reignited in many parts of the world, including Japan. That’s caused the Bank of Japan to start moving interest rates up for the first time in at least a generation. In just the last two years, the 10-year bond has gone from 0.4%, or 40 basis points, to about 1.5%. We have a large amount of our portfolio and a significant amount of cash flow denominated in yen, and it’s obviously welcome news to have higher yields.

GF: What asset-allocation framework do you use for managing the portfolio in Japan?

Dyslin: I’ll highlight two things we have done to update our asset allocation in the last few years. The first one is how we’ve utilized U.S. dollar assets for the Japan portfolio. The second, like much of the industry, is how we’ve utilized private assets in the portfolio, notably private credit and private equity.

For the U.S. dollar assets, this is driven by our strategic asset allocation and our approach to asset-liability management. You can think of our portfolio in Japan as consisting of two big pieces. The first chunk is the amount of capital we set aside for future policy claims. Those claims will be in yen for our Japanese customers. We back that liability with yen assets. Supporting that is the capital of our owners—the regulatory and economic capital to make sure there is a strong financial base to support those yen liabilities. That belongs to our U.S.- based shareholders, so we hold that capital in U.S. dollars

To sum up, the money owed to policy holders is in a yen portfolio. The money that belongs to our U.S. shareholders is in a U.S. dollar portfolio. It sounds pretty simple today, but it gets a little bit more complicated when you start factoring in things like regulatory capital and all the regulations an insurance company needs to manage.

GF: What’s the impact of the tariffs being levied by the Trump Administration?

Dyslin: Tariffs are an issue that many business leaders, political leaders and investors are all grappling with. Every indication we’ve seen suggests that they will be inflationary, but the magnitude remains to be seen. As yield-based investors, generally we like higher yields but not at the expense of an economy that could be dealing with higher inflation.

We’ve seen the market respond to tariffs with lower yields. The market is telling us it’s more concerned about a slowing economy than they are about inflation coming from tariffs. So that’s one area we’re watching very closely. At the security level, some companies will be more impacted than others. Some have more ability to adjust to a tariff regime than others, and that’s where our team of around 20 professional credit investors comes in. They focus on understanding these companies. That entails understanding their management teams, their capital structures, and their cash-conversion cycles of all these individual credits. That level of analysis really makes the difference for us.

GF: There’s been some notable M&A activity in which asset managers are acquiring insurers. For example, KKR acquired Global Atlantic Financial Group last year. What’s your take on this trend?

Dyslin: This has involved some alternative managers buying insurers outright, as well as creating strategic partnerships. I’ve been an insurance money manager my whole career, so I find this all very fascinating. It’s gratifying to see these alternative managers taking an interest in insurance company assets, and I expect this trend to continue. It’s exactly what Warren Buffett has done with Berkshire Hathaway—using the stable cash flows and long-term nature of insurance capital to support an investment platform. We’ve seen an explosion of growth that has created some very large managers focused on these various alternative assets.

I expect alternative asset managers to continue forging partnerships with insurance capital. It’s much easier to invest when you’ve got regular, recurring insurance money from premiums and portfolio cash generation, as opposed to having to keep raising new funds. With an insurer, you’ve got an underlying business that generates recurring cash.

GF: How do you incorporate shifting macroeconomic factors into running the portfolio?

Dyslin: We don’t actively reposition the portfolio based on macro conditions like interest rates or currency fluctuations. The way we’ve tried to neutralize our yen exposure is by setting up these two portfolios. So, it’s a yen portfolio for yen liabilities and a dollar portfolio for dollar liabilities, or dollar surplus, which I view as a liability to our shareholders. That’s how we do it in our organization. Every investment manager is managing some sort of liability. It could be to perform against a benchmark. It could be a pension obligation. In our case, it’s future insurance claims. So, investing to meet or exceed the expectations of that liability is the key, and that’s what we really focus on when we set up our strategic asset allocation and making allocation decisions.

I know you’ve asked about how we change the portfolio based on movements in the yen or interest rates. If we’ve done our job correctly—and we have good, solid asset-liability management in place—a lot of that doesn’t matter, or doesn’t matter much. It’s not going to have a big impact on our portfolio. You’re not going to suddenly see the portfolio just shift around because interest rates are 50 basis points higher.

We do make tactical decisions, and aim to be opportunistic, but that’s done more at the security level than at the broader asset-allocation level.

GF: Are most of your holdings government bonds?

Dyslin: We do own a significant portfolio of Japan government bonds, or JGBs. Going back to that yen portfolio I mentioned earlier, we would prefer more yen-denominated credit holdings, but it’s very difficult to find acceptable investments that meet our needs. So we own a lot of JGBs, in part because we need an outlet for yen investments. JGBs also provide liquidity, and they are very long maturity assets, often 30 years. That helps us match our long liabilities against long assets. We also have a very significant corporate public bond portfolio, which provides not only liquidity but also additional U.S. dollar-based income.

GF: Do you have any exposure to high-yield bonds?

Dyslin: It’s about 1% of the portfolio. Most of our high-yield exposure is through private middle-market direct lending, which we believe provides much better value for the risk.

As far as maturity ranges of the securities we hold, it really is across the board and varies by asset class. For our primary outlet for below investment grade—middle market loans—those are generally shorter, often with maturities of five to seven years. Our JGBs tend to be longer, 30-year bonds. Our A-focused investment-grade credit portfolio typically has maturities of 10 to 15 years.

New cryptocurrency initiatives constantly develop in the market space that show promise to revolutionize operations. Investors who want to discover the cryptocurrency of tomorrow can capitalize on pre-sale opportunities because they offer tokens before exchange listings.

During crypto pre-sales investors obtain tokens at prices cheaper than the official launch through fundraising activities. The pre-sale phase supports project capital acquisition through its potential for early investors to achieve higher returns. Pre-sales have become the foundation for numerous successful crypto coins presently in the market which makes them a sound investment method to identify promising new coins during their early adoption period.

The blockchain world focuses on AurealOne and DexBoss as they are two of the most promising rising pre-sale initiatives today. The platforms develop modern blockchain solutions that target DeFi along with gaming applications. Their solid foundations suggest they might transform into one of the massive upcoming crypto coins and shape up to be next in line to achieve the substantial $1 value.

AurealOne: A Blockchain Revolutionizing Gaming and the Metaverse

Overview

The AurealOne blockchain system operates with high performance speed while specializing in gaming together with metaverse usage. The speed of its operations together with nominal gas costs makes AurealOne an optimal choice for both gaming developers and players.

The primary element of AurealOne exists in the form of DLUME which acts as its native cryptocurrency. DLUME serves as a transactional currency for the ecosystem and gaming currency positioning it as a good crypto to invest in for those interested in blockchain gaming.

Why AurealOne Could Be the Next Big Crypto Coin

• High-Speed Transactions: The platform implements Zero-Knowledge Rollups technology for scalability purposes to deliver rapid transaction processing that is vital for gaming needs.

• Community-Driven Governance: Holder participation through staking DLUME tokens enables them to receive benefits and take part in developing the platform along with other stakeholders.

• Strategic ICO Structure: The pre-sale structure for the ICO has twenty-one stages which begin at $0.0005 before reaching $0.0045 throughout round increments while targeting $50 million in total capital acquisition.

• Game Integration: The Clash of Tiles game from AurealOne showcases its gaming integration making it a strong contender for the next big crypto in gaming.

Tokenomics

AurealOne’s tokenomics is designed to incentivize long-term adoption:

• Total Supply: A structured allocation supports ecosystem growth.
• Pre-Sale Rounds:
  • Rounds 1-20: 1 billion DLUME tokens per round.
  • Round 21: 500 million tokens available.
  • Gradual price increases encourage early investment.

DexBoss: The Next Big Crypto in DeFi

Overview

The DeFi platform DexBoss has established itself as an interface which makes decentralized finance transactions accessible to trading and investing users. DexBoss stands ready to welcome experienced as well as new traders through its design of user-friendly trading alongside strong liquidity and instant execution capabilities.

Investors seeking DeFi innovation benefits should consider $DEBO as one of their promising crypto-coins investments because of its designed long-term prosperity.

Why DexBoss Stands Out in the Crypto Market

• Simplified DeFi Trading: Trade complexity has been eliminated through DexBoss so that decentralized trading can be used by anyone.

• High Liquidity and Trading Features: Traders have access to margin trading alongside staking as well as liquidity pools and multiple advanced financial tools on the platform.

• Real-Time Order Execution: DexBoss enables instantaneous trades because they focus on delivering real-time order execution to crypto traders.

• Strategic Pre-Sale Structure: The $DEBO token pre-sale has a strategic structure that spans 17 rounds through which the price rises from $0.01 to $0.0505 and aims to collect $50 million in total.

• Deflationary Mechanism: A token supply reduction through the buyback-and-burn procedure works to boost token worth.

Tokenomics

DexBoss’s tokenomics is built for sustainable growth:

• 50% of total supply is allocated to pre-sale buyers.
• The rest is distributed among:
  • Liquidity pools
  • Marketing initiatives
  • Team incentives
• Transaction fees support a token buyback program, benefiting long-term holders.

Could These Be the Next Crypto to Hit One Dollar?

Both AurealOne and DexBoss have strong use cases in gaming and DeFi, positioning them as good crypto to invest in. Here’s why:

1. Strong Community Involvement

• The projects implement governance mechanisms which involve users to protect enduring sustainability.

2. Clear Roadmaps for Growth

• AurealOne is expanding its gaming ecosystem beyond Clash of Tiles.
• DexBoss maintains a detailed development plan extending through including trading innovations and strategic alliances.

3. Growing Market Demand

• Blockchain gaming and DeFi are two of the fastest-growing sectors in crypto.
• Both projects are strategically positioned to capitalize on these trends.

4. Early Investment Opportunity

• Investors have access to affordable entry during pre-sale phases to obtain tokens before their market release.

Conclusion: The Future of AurealOne and DexBoss

With strong fundamentals, innovative technology, and clear use cases, AurealOne and DexBoss are shaping up to be two of the next big crypto coins in gaming and DeFi.

These projects have a great potential to grow into a big cryptocurrency hitting $1 because of their innovative technologies, strategic positioning in the market. AurealOne and DexBoss may one day come to possess the stature of market kingpins such as XRP Ripple, which is currently trending up. 

Involving in a volatile, fast changing market, one must investigate carefully and remain conscious of recent trends.  ​

Disclaimer: The views and opinions presented in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of CoinCheckup. The content of this article should not be considered as investment advice. Always do your own research before deciding to buy, sell or transfer any crypto assets. Past returns do not always guarantee future profits.

Updated on March 18th, 2025 by Bob Ciura

Over the past decade, many technology stocks such as Apple, Inc. (AAPL), Cisco Systems (CSCO), and more have initiated dividend payments to shareholders.

While the technology industry has widely embraced dividends, not all tech companies pay dividends. One lingering holdout to paying dividends to shareholders is e-commerce giant Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN).

Rather than return cash to shareholders, Amazon continues to plow its cash flow back into the business.

The decision whether or not a company should pay a dividend depends on many factors. Thousands of stocks pay dividends to shareholders, and an elite few have maintained long histories of raising their dividends every year.

For example, the Dividend Aristocrats are a group of 69 stocks in the S&P 500 that have raised their dividends for 25+ years in a row.

You can download an Excel spreadsheet of all Dividend Aristocrats (with important financial metrics such as price-to-earnings ratios and dividend yields) by clicking the link below:

 

Amazon’s lack of a dividend certainly has not hurt investors to this point, as Amazon has been a premier tech stock.

Over the past 10 years, Amazon stock generated total returns of over 900%.

But for income investors, Amazon may not be an attractive option due to the lack of a dividend payment.

This article will discuss the chances of Amazon ever paying a dividend.

Business Overview

Amazon is an online retailer that operates a massive e-commerce platform where consumers can buy virtually anything with their computers or smartphones.

Amazon is a mega-cap stock with a market cap of more than $2 trillion. It operates through the following segments:

• North America
• International
• Amazon Web Services

The North America and International segments include the global retail platform of consumer products through the company’s websites.

The Amazon Web Services segment sells subscriptions for cloud computing and storage services to consumers, start-ups, enterprises, government agencies, and academic institutions.

Amazon’s e-commerce operations fueled its massive revenue growth over the past decade. The company saw continued growth in the most recent quarter.

Related: Which is the better investment, dividend stocks or growth stocks?

In the 2024 fourth quarter, revenue of $187.7 billion increased 10% year-over-year, and beat analyst estimates by $563 million.

By segment, North America sales increased 10% year-over-year to $115.6 billion. International sales rose 9% excluding foreign currency translation, while AWS sales rose 19% year-over-year.

Source: Investor Presentation

While the retail business still operates at low gross margins, it continues to generate strong revenue growth.

Separately, the AWS segment is highly profitable, and is largely the reason for Amazon’s impressive earnings growth. Such strong earnings growth improves Amazon’s chances of paying a dividend at some point in the future.

That said, the company still plans to invest heavily in growth, which makes for uneven earnings-per-share from one quarter to the next.

Growth Prospects

As is typical with many technology companies, growth investment is Amazon’s top strategic priority. This is partly out of necessity.

Things move extremely fast in technology, which is a highly competitive industry. Technology firms need to invest large amounts to stay ahead of the pack.

Amazon is no different—it is making major investments to continue building its online retail platform. Amazon continues to grow its retail business.

It also acquired natural and organic grocer Whole Foods for nearly $14 billion. This gave Amazon the brick-and-mortar footprint it desired to further expand its reach in groceries.

Amazon isn’t stopping there. In addition to the retail industry, it aims to spread its tentacles into other industries as well, including media and healthcare.

Amazon has built a sizable media platform in which it distributes content to its Amazon Prime members.

Making original content is another highly capital-intensive endeavor, which will require huge sums in order for Amazon to compete with the likes of streaming giants Netflix (NFLX) and Hulu, as well as other television and movie studios.

Its media ambitions were augmented by its 2022 acquisition of MGM for $8.5 billion.

Now that Amazon dominates retail and media content, it is readying a bigger move into the healthcare industry.

In 2022 Amazon acquired One Medical in a $3.9 billion all-cash transaction, including One Medical’s debt. One Medical is a national primary care company.

These investments will fuel Amazon’s revenue growth, which is what the company’s investors are primarily concerned with. Nevertheless, such aggressive spending will limit Amazon’s ability to pay dividends to shareholders, at least for some time.

For the 2025 first quarter, Amazon expects net sales in a range of $151.0 billion and $155.5 billion, for 5%-9% year-over-year growth.

Operating income is expected to be between $14.0 billion and $18.0 billion, compared with $15.3 billion in the first quarter of 2024.

Will Amazon Ever Pay A Dividend?

Amazon has joined the ranks of profitable tech companies like Apple, Microsoft, and Cisco, all of which generate high earnings-per-share. Apple, Microsoft, and Cisco are now blue-chip tech dividend payers.

In theory, Amazon could pay a dividend, as the company should be profitable in fiscal 2025. Amazon’s earnings-per-share are forecast to be $6.32 for fiscal 2025.

The company can use its profits for a number of purposes, including debt repayment, reinvestment in future growth initiatives, paying dividends, or share buybacks.

If Amazon chose to, it could distribute a dividend to shareholders, although any announced dividend payout would likely be small, in terms of the dividend yield.

For example, even if Amazon maintained a dividend payout ratio of 25%, which would be appropriate for a growth-oriented tech company, the dividend of $1.58 per share would represent just a ~0.8% yield.

This would still be an unappealing yield for many income investors.

Final Thoughts

Amazon has been one of the most impressive growth companies in history. It now dominates the online retail industry. It is also a massive cloud services provider, as well as a movie studio and content streaming giant.

Ultimately, a company has to make the decision to initiate a dividend payment. This is often done when future growth no longer requires such heavy investment.

For Amazon, the company still has many new avenues for future expansion in mind, including (but not limited to) media content, grocery stores, and health care.

Growth is still very much the top priority for Amazon. As a result, investors should not expect a dividend payment any time soon.

 

At Sure Dividend, we often advocate for investing in companies with a high probability of increasing their dividends each and every year.

If that strategy appeals to you, it may be useful to browse through the following databases of dividend growth stocks:

Get ready for humanoids … gold sets a new all-time high … why gold miners could be a better bet … a deeper dive into tariffs with Charles Sizemore

As I write Tuesday morning, gold is setting another all-time high.

This doesn’t come as a surprise to regular Digest readers. We’ve been tracking the yellow metal for years. And even when investors wanted nothing to do with it, we were urging readers to recognize the eventual rally that would come – and establish at least a small position.

Here’s how our global macro expert Eric Fry described those gold-price doldrums back in summer 2022:

The yellow metal is barely registering a pulse at the moment. Most of the wax figures inside Madame Tussauds museum seem more vibrant and lifelike.

But that’s simply how gold behaves from time to time. It “does nothing” for such extended periods of time that investors begin to doubt it could fog a mirror.

Gradually, they turn their back on the comatose metal and leave it for dead. But that’s usually about the time it comes to life.

Well, gold has certainly “come to life.” It’s jumped 40% over the last 12 months while the S&P has returned less than a quarter of that amount.

But today, there is a more profitable way to look at gold.

Start looking at gold miners

At the beginning of the month, we urged readers to look at top-tier miners. We highlighted a break in the relationship between gold’s price and the price of leading gold mining stocks.

Typically, top miners make moves that are 2X- 3X the size of gold’s move (for good and bad). This reflects the swelling profits that miners enjoy as gold’s market price rises above breakeven costs…or the snowballing losses they suffer when prices swing the opposite way.

But in recent years, miners haven’t fallen in line with this historical price relationship.

Here’s Mining.com:

The gold miners’ stock prices have largely decoupled from their metal, which overwhelmingly drives their profits.

This fundamental disconnect has spawned a shocking valuation anomaly, with gold stocks far too low relative to gold. But this aberration won’t last, as markets abhor extreme deviations from precedent.

Mean reversions and proportional overshoots soon follow, so gold stocks will soar to reflect their record earnings.

The “catch up” has begun

Below, we compare the performance of the VanEck Gold Miners ETF, GDX, to gold over the last three months (disclosure: I own GDX).

While gold’s 14% climb – and fresh all-time highs – are receiving all the headlines, GDX has nearly doubled that return, clocking in with 27% gains.

Source: TradingView

Better still, it appears there’s plenty more juice in the tank since miner valuations have been so depressed in recent quarters.

On that note, here’s Barron’s from last month:

Gold stocks, despite their gains, really do look like bargains.

The VanEck ETF trades at just over 12 times 12-month forward earnings, a 44% discount to the S&P 500’s 22 times, a much wider gap than the 10-year average of 20%.

Narrowing the price/earnings gap to that average discount would bring the ETF up to just over 16 times, landing it, once again, at $51.

If you’re looking to play this, GDX is still an option.

On March 5, I also highlighted Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) and Alamos Gold (AGI). Since then, AGI is up 6.6% and AEM is up 7.6% while the S&P has fallen 3.5%.

Circling back to Eric, he put his Investment Report subscribers into Westgold Resources (WGXRF) in mid-January. They’re already sitting on 48% returns.

To learn more about joining Eric in Investment Report, click here.

We’ll keep you updated as gold and gold miners continue climbing.

Can a mission to Mars help this stock?

Last Friday, Tesla CEO Elon Musk wrote that Starship will head to Mars at the end of next year carrying Optimus.

Humans aren’t far behind.

From Musk:

If those landings go well, then human landings may start as soon as 2029, although 2031 is more likely.

To make sure we’re all on the same page, Starship is the world’s largest, most powerful rocket from Musk’s company SpaceX.

Optimus – from Musk’s company Tesla – is an advanced humanoid robot.

Space travel will be big business…eventually.

But long before we’re taking vacations to Mars, we’ll be living in a world filled with humanoids.

For more on Optimus and humanoids, let’s go to our technology expert, Luke Lango, editor of Innovation Investor:

Everyone who’s anyone in the tech world is betting on humanoid robots being the next big AI breakthrough. Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, is certainly all-in on them. 

His firm Tesla (TSLA) has created a humanoid robot called Optimus, which is already being used inside Tesla factories to complete a variety of tasks.

The company plans to ramp Optimus production to use them in its factories worldwide. It’s said that next year, it will start selling its robots to outside companies. And after that, it aims to offer them to consumers like you and me.

Humanoids are going to be big business

Multi-trillion-dollar business, in fact.

Here’s some of what Musk said about them on Tesla’s Q2 earnings call:

• Long-term, Optimus has the potential to generate $10 trillion in revenue.
• It won’t be many years before we’re making 100 million robots a year.
• My long-term prediction is that Optimus will overwhelmingly be the value of [Tesla].
• I see a path for Tesla to be the most valuable company in the world, possibly bigger than the next five companies combined, overwhelmingly due to autonomous vehicles and autonomous humanoid robots.

This isn’t just hyperbole.

Independent research on the potential market size for humanoids support Musk’s enormous vision. Let’s go to ETF provider and research shop, GlobalX:

The potential market opportunity for humanoids is massive, and it’s accelerating.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk and industry stakeholders believe there could be over 1 billion humanoids on Earth by the 2040s…

The potential of general-purpose humanoid robotics remains largely untapped, with their appeal being their versatility.

To estimate the market for general-purpose humanoids, GlobalX assumes 15% household penetration and a price point of $10,000 – $15,000. That results in a market size of almost $3 trillion by 2035.

When we consider the size of the market for industrial humanoids, GlobalX puts the total addressable market size at nearly $2 trillion over the next decade.

Plus, we’ll see additional bespoke humanoids created for a variety of sectors.

Bottom line: We’re looking at an enormous market only a handful of years from now…and it’s barely in its infancy today.

So, how do you invest?

Looking beyond Tesla, Luke writes Meta, Apple, Alphabet, Nvidia, and OpenAI are just a few of the companies working on aspects of humanoid technology.

If you’d prefer to spread your money around, you could go the ETF route. There are a handful of “robot” ETFs, with one example being the First Trust Nasdaq Artificial Intelligence & Robotics ETF (ROBT).

However, Tesla is still the front-runner. I’ll add that Tesla’s stock is down 51% from Christmas!

But before you open your brokerage account to buy, Luke has a related idea to consider:

I think Elon Musk and his AI robot Optimus have the potential to profoundly change the world and go down in history as Musk’s greatest achievement. 

And I’ve found a “backdoor” way to invest in this new Optimus project. 

For more on this stealth robotics play, Luke put together a free research video. You can check it out right here.

Stepping back, whether the idea of intermingling with humanoids everyday thrills or terrifies you, get ready – it’s headed our way.

Checking in on the tariff wars…

As we’ve been covering in recent Digests, tariffs have the potential to kneecap today’s relatively healthy economy.

If used briefly as negotiating leverage, our economy will likely ride through the turbulence with little more than some bumps and a few bruises.

But the longer that tariffs are in place, the greater the risk they: 1) reignite inflation, 2) drag down corporate profits, and 3) push some lower-income Americans over the financial cliff, increasing our chances of a recession.

To help you contextualize tariff-related headlines, let’s look a little closer.

On Sunday, on CBS’s Face the Nation, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said:

For 30 or 40 years we have allowed countries to treat us unfairly in global trade…

But now that has to change… I understand why these countries don’t like it. The status quo of trade benefits them, they like the status quo. We don’t like the status quo.

We are going to put tariffs on countries reciprocal to what they put on us.

Theoretically, I’m on board if the ultimate goal is to force fewer trade restrictions.

But on a trade case-by-case basis, how unfairly have we been treated?

For example, as you’re aware, the Trump administration implemented a 25% tariff on imports from Canada.

Does this new levy match a 25% tariff that Canada has had in place on the U.S., per Rubio’s general suggestion?

Not from what I can tell. According to the World Trade Organization’s 2023 data, Canada’s simple average Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) applied tariff was 3.8% for all products. For agricultural products, the tariff was 14.8%.

For added perspective, prior to Trump’s 25% tariff on Canadian goods, U.S. tariffs toward Canada were somewhat like Canadian tariffs toward the U.S.

According to the Tax Foundation, the average U.S. tariff on all U.S. imports (including Canada) was approximately 2.5% in 2024. However, certain Canadian products had higher tariffs, such as softwood lumber. Last summer, President Biden raised its tariff from 8.05% to 14.54%.

Now, perhaps I’ve missed it. If you’re aware of Canada having taxed U.S. goods at 25%, email us at [email protected]. But if that’s not what was happening, then the blanket 25% tariff seems inconsistent with what we heard from Rubio.

A pushback is that the elevated Canadian tariffs are due to Canada’s inability to stop fentanyl smuggling

If this is the case, some perspective is needed.

From the Canadian government:

Fentanyl seizures by the United States Customs and Border Patrol at the Canada-U.S. border Represent less than 0.1% of U.S. fentanyl seizures between 2022 and 2024.

And for added context, between 2022 and 2024, approximately 61,900 pounds were seized at the U.S.’s southwest border with Mexico.

Meanwhile, the total weight of seizures at the Canadian border clocked in at just 59 pounds.

To be clear, we’re not against tariffs…we’re against tariffs that could tip us into a recession

On that note, let’s turn to our geopolitical expert, Charles Sizemore.

For newer Digest readers, Charles is the Chief Investment Strategist at our corporate partner, The Freeport Investor, where he marries political and macro analysis with the investment markets.

From Charles:

The general consensus going into the election was that Trump’s threat of tariffs was a negotiating tool. Many thought he wasn’t really going to slap 25% tariffs on our trading partners. It was just a warning shot to get their attention.

Trump made similar threats in 2016. And he eventually settled on a renegotiated NAFTA, rebranded as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in 2020. The USMCA created slightly better trading terms for the U.S. than the original NAFTA, but the overall agreement didn’t change all that much.

While something similar might happen this time around, it’s not looking that way. Our trading partners aren’t in a deal-making mood. They’re angry.

And businesses – American and foreign – don’t know what to do or how to plan because the tariff rates and potential starting dates are changing by the day.

Investments are frozen. Hiring is stalled. Decision makers are paralyzed. They’re waiting for the dust to settle before they do anything.

Those aren’t favorable conditions for the robust earnings that stocks need to sustain a bull market.

Charles isn’t recommending getting out of the market in The Freeport Investor. However, he is hedging his bets today while recommending investors focus on high-quality blue-chips, as well as well as energy stocks, infrastructure plays, and – you guessed it – gold stocks.

Charles’ subscribers are up 30% in one gold miner they opened last September. They’re up 49% in a second gold play opened in 2023. And Charles’ latest golden recommendation from about this time last month is up almost 6%.

To learn more about The Freeport Investor, click here. If you’re interested in how politics impacts the markets, this is a fantastic resource.

We’ll keep you updated on Charles’ latest analysis, gold, and additional tariff details here in the Digest.

Have a good evening,

Jeff Remsburg

Updated on March 18th, 2025 by Bob Ciura

For Canadian investors, having exposure to the United States stock market is very important.

There are a number of reasons why.

First, the United States is the largest stock market in the world. In order to avoid home country bias and have a globally diversified investment portfolio, exposure to American stocks is required.

When it comes to the best U.S. dividend stocks to buy, we have compiled a list of blue-chip stocks with 10+ years of dividend increases.

Blue-chip stocks are established, financially strong, and consistently profitable publicly traded companies.

Their strength makes them appealing investments for comparatively safe, reliable dividends and capital appreciation versus less established stocks.

This research report has the following resources to help you invest in blue chip stocks:

 

Resource #1: The Blue Chip Stocks Spreadsheet List

This list contains important metrics, including: dividend yields, payout ratios, dividend growth rates, 52-week highs and lows, betas, and more.

There are currently more than 500 securities in our blue chip stocks list.

Second, there are certain sectors that are underrepresented in the Canadian stock market. Examples include healthcare, technology, and consumer staples. Interestingly, these sectors are among the strongest in the U.S. market.

To invest in stocks from the United States, Canadian investors need to understand how this will impact their tax bills.

This article will discuss the tax implications for Canadians that invest in U.S. stocks, including examples of dividend- and non-dividend-paying stocks held in both taxable accounts and non-taxable accounts.

Table of Contents

While we recommend reading this article in its entirety, you can skip to a particular section of this article using the table of contents below:

Capital Gains Tax

There are two types of investing taxes that Canadian investors will pay if they are investing outside of a tax-deferred retirement account. The first is capital gains tax, which will be discussed first.

A capital gain occurs when a security is sold for more than its purchase price. Conversely, a capital loss comes from selling a security for less than it was purchased for.

Canadian investors must pay capital gains tax on at least 50% of their realized capital gains. The 2024 Federal Budget announced an increase in the capital gains inclusion rate from 50% to two thirds on the portion of capital gains realized in the year that exceed $250,000 for individuals, for capital gains realized on or after June 25, 2024.

The $250,000 threshold applies to capital gains realized by an individual net of any capital losses realized in the current year or carried forward from prior years. The tax rate for capital gains is identical to the individual’s marginal tax rate.

Marginal tax rates are composed of a federal component (which is paid in the same amount by all Canadians) and a provincial component (which varies depending on which province you live in).

According to the Canada Revenue Agency, current federal tax rates by tax bracket are:

• 15% on the first $55,867 of taxable income, +
• 20.5% on the next $55,866 of taxable income (on the portion of taxable income over $55,867 up to $111,733), +
• 26% on the next $61,472 of taxable income (on the portion of taxable income over $111,733 up to $173,205), +
• 29% on the next $73,547 of taxable income (on the portion of taxable income over $173,205 up to $246,752), +
• 33% of taxable income over $246,752.

As mentioned, provincial tax rates vary by province. Examples in this article will use Ontario’s tax rates, as it is Canada’s most highly-populated province. Ontario tax rates by tax bracket are shown below:

• 5.05% on the first $46,226 of taxable income, +
• 9.15% on the next $46,228, +
• 11.16% on the next $57,546, +
• 12.16% on the next $70,000, +
• 13.16% on the amount over $220,000

So how do capital gains taxes vary for holders of U.S. stocks?

Fortunately, the capital gains tax paid on investments in U.S. stocks is identical to the capital gains paid on Canadian securities. The only minor difference is that capital gains must be expressed in Canadian dollars for the purpose of calculating an investor’s tax liability.

An example can help us understand capital gains tax from U.S. stocks in the context of these Canadian tax brackets. Let’s assume that you are a Canadian investor who has executed the following trades:

• Purchased 100 shares Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) for US$100 at a time when the USD to CAD exchange rate was 1.25
• Sold your Johnson & Johnson shares for US$125 at a time when the USD to CAD exchange rate was 1.15

You will pay capital gains on the difference between your purchase price and your sale price, expressed in Canadian dollars. The following table can help us to understand the proper way to calculate the CAD-denominated capital gain. Although not directly calculated in the image above, the capital gain for this transaction – expressed in U.S. dollars – is US$2,500.

However, that is irrelevant for the purpose of calculating capital gains tax because capital gains tax is based on transaction prices expressed in Canadian dollars. What really matters is the CAD$1,875 capital gain shown in the bottom right cell of the table.

This is the amount used to calculate capital gains. As mentioned previously, at least half of this amount would be taxed at the investor’s marginal tax rate. We will assume for simplicity’s sake that the investor is in the highest tax bracket, which is 46.16% for Ontario residents.

The following table breaks down the capital gains tax calculation for this hypothetical investment in Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). So, the capital gains tax would be at least $432.75.

This calculation was quite involved and demonstrates how complicated the calculation of capital gains tax can be for Canadians.

Fortunately, capital gains tax can be tax-free or tax-deferred if U.S. stocks (or stocks from any other country) are held in Canadian retirement accounts.

We discuss the two types of Canadian retirement accounts (TFSAs and RRSPs) in a later section of this article.

For now, we’ll move on to discussing the taxation of dividends paid to Canadian investors from U.S. corporations.

Dividend Tax

Unlike capital gains taxes (which are calculated in the same way for U.S. stocks and Canadian stocks), the taxes that Canadian investors pay on international stock dividends are different than the taxes they pay on domestic dividends.

This is due to a special type of dividend tax called “withholding tax.” Unlike other taxes paid by Canadian investors, these taxes are withheld at source (by the company that pays the dividend) and remitted to their own tax authority – which, for United States companies, is the Internal Revenue Service (IRS).

Dividend withholding taxes meaningfully reduce the income that Canadian investors are able to generate from U.S. stocks. Fortunately, this effect is partially offset by a special tax treaty between the United States and Canada (called the Convention Between Canada and the United States of America).

The U.S. withholding tax rate charged to foreign investors on U.S. dividends is normally 30% but is reduced to 15% for Canadians due to this treaty.

How does this compare to the average withholding tax of countries across the globe?

Even after accounting for the special tax treaty, the U.S. is still an unfavorable market for Canadian investors from the perspective of tax efficiency.

According to Blackrock, the weighted average foreign withholding tax on international stock dividends is 12%. Even after accounting for the tax treaty, Canadians still pay a 15% withholding tax — 25% higher than the weighted average dividend withholding tax around the world.

Canadian investors will be happy to hear that this foreign withholding tax is able to be reclaimed come tax time. The Canada Revenue Agency allows you to claim a foreign tax credit for the withholding tax paid on United States dividends. This prevents investors from paying tax twice on their dividend income.

Still, U.S. dividends are not as tax efficient as their Canadian counterparts. The reason why is somewhat complicated and is related to a Canadian taxation principle called the “dividend tax credit.”

The dividend tax credit meaningfully reduces the taxes that Canadians pay on dividends, and causes dividend income to be the single most tax-efficient form of income available to Canadians.

According to MoneySense:

When a non-resident invests in U.S stocks or U.S.-listed exchange traded funds (ETFs), the standard withholding tax on dividends is 30%. A Canadian resident is entitled to a lower withholding rate of 15% under a treaty between the two countries if they have filed a form W-8 BEN with the brokerage where they hold the investments.

Our recommendation for Canadian investors looking for exposure to U.S. stocks is to hold their U.S. stocks in retirement accounts, which simultaneously reduces their tax burden and dramatically reduces the tax complexity of their investment portfolios.

We discuss dividend taxes in retirement accounts in the next section of this article.

Dividend Tax in Retirement Accounts

The best way for Canadian investors to gain exposure to U.S. stocks is through retirement accounts.

There are two major retirement accounts available for Canadian investors:

Both offer tax-advantaged opportunities for Canadians to deploy their capital into financial assets. With that said, there are important differences as to how each account functions.

The Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) allows investors to contribute after-tax income into the account. Investment gains and dividends held within the account are subject to no tax and no tax is incurred upon withdrawal from the account. TFSAs are functionally similar to Roth IRAs in the United States.

The other type of retirement account in Canada is the Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP). These accounts allow Canadian investors to contribute pre-tax income, which is then deducted from their gross income for the purpose of calculating each year’s income tax.

Income tax is paid later, upon withdrawals from the RRSP. RRSPs are functionally equivalent to 401(k)s within the United States. In other words, income earned in RRSPs at tax-deferred.

Both of these retirement accounts are very attractive because they allow investors to deploy their capital in a tax-efficient manner. In general, no tax is paid on both capital gains or dividends so long as the stocks are held within retirement accounts.

Unfortunately, there is one exception to this rule. The withholding tax paid to the IRS on dividends from United States businesses is still paid within TFSAs. For this reason, U.S. stocks that pay out large dividends should not be held within a TFSA if possible.

Instead, the RRSP is the best place to hold U.S. dividend stocks (but not MLPs, REITs, etc.) because the dividend withholding tax is waived. In fact, no tax is paid at all on U.S. stocks held within RRSPs.

This means that Canadian investors should hold all dividend-paying U.S. stocks within their RRSPs if they have sufficient contribution room. U.S. stocks that don’t pay dividends can be held in a TFSA.

Lastly, Canadian dividend stocks should be held in non-registered accounts to take advantage of the dividend tax credit.

Final Thoughts

This article began by discussing some of the benefits of owning U.S. stocks for Canadian investors before elaborating on the tax consequences of implementing such a strategy.

After describing the tax characteristics of U.S. stocks for Canadians, we concluded that the best practices are to:

• Hold dividend-paying U.S. stocks within an RRSP
• Hold non-dividend-paying or low-yielding U.S. stocks (that are expected to have higher growth prospects) within a TFSA
• Hold Canadian stocks in a taxable account — especially dividend-paying Canadian stocks, to take advantage of the dividend tax credit

If you are a Canadian dividend investor and are interested in exploring the U.S. stock market, the following Sure Dividend databases contain some of the most high-quality dividend stocks in our investment universe:

• The Dividend Aristocrats: S&P 500 stocks with 25+ years of consecutive dividend increases
• The Dividend Achievers: dividend stocks with 10+ years of consecutive dividend increases
• The Dividend Kings: considered to be the best-of-the-best when it comes to dividend growth, the Dividend Kings are an elite group of dividend stocks with 50+ years of consecutive dividend increases

Alternatively, you may be looking to tailor a very specific group of dividend stocks to meet certain yield and payout characteristics. If this is indeed the case, you will be interested in the following databases from Sure Dividend:

Another way to approach the U.S. stock market is by constructing your portfolio so that it owns companies in each sector of the stock market. For this reason, Sure Dividend maintains 10 databases of stocks from each sector of the market. you can access these databases below.

Written by the Market Insights Team

Retail sales miss weighs on dollar

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

US equity indices have started the week in the green and the US dollar in the red as investors continue to weigh trade policy uncertainty, recession risks and geopolitical developments. Volatility across stocks and currencies continues to subside following the mixed US retail sales report yesterday, but plenty of catalysts this week could challenge this trend.

On the macro front, US retail sales rose 0.2% in February, less than forecast, and January data was revised to a 1.2% decline, the biggest drop since July 2021. Seven out of the 13 categories saw a decline in February, whilst non-store retailers, a proxy for online spending, posted the largest jump since late 2023. While the hard data are holding up somewhat for now, sentiment and forward-looking indicators show an elevated slowdown risk. For example, we saw a sharp drop in New York state manufacturing activity, whilst the prices paid component jumped to its highest level in over two years. Combined, this adds to evidence that tariff risks are hitting consumer spending whilst reigniting inflationary pressures for businesses. The market reaction was fairly muted, but the day ended with the dollar index sliding back towards 5-month lows and Treasury yields slipping across the curve.

Balancing growth-related concerns with the need to reassure investors of the economy’s resilience presents a significant challenge for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell this week. He is scheduled to address the public following the conclusion of the central bank’s meeting on Wednesday, where policymakers are anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged.

Clearing the $1.09 barrier

Boris Kovacevic – Global Macro Strategist

The euro continues to push higher, starting the week on a positive footing as risk-on sentiment drives markets. Equity benchmarks across major economies are rising, supported by stronger-than-expected macro data from China and significant fiscal policy developments in Germany that could have long-term implications for European growth. EUR/USD is trading above $1.09 again and could test its year high at $1.0955.

China’s industrial production expanded by 5.9% year-over-year in two months to February, surpassing market expectations of a 5.3% increase. Retail sales rose by 4.0% in the same period, accelerating from 3.7% in December and marking the strongest retail turnover since last October, largely driven by increased consumer spending during the Spring Festival. The resilience of the Chinese economy is a positive signal for global trade, particularly benefiting the Eurozone, given its strong economic ties with China. The risk-on mood, combined with stronger demand signals from Asia, is offering broad support for the euro. At the same time, developments in Germany are adding another layer of support for the common currency.

Lawmakers in Berlin are expected to pass sweeping constitutional changes this week that will remove borrowing restrictions for defense spending in excess of 1% of GDP. This move could have broader implications for the Eurozone economy, as increased government spending on defense and infrastructure could help offset some of the current growth headwinds and support the economic outlook.

Against this backdrop, EUR/USD remains in an upward trend, benefiting from improving risk sentiment and fiscal expansion prospects in Germany. However, further upside will depend on upcoming US economic data, particularly inflation figures and Fed guidance, which could influence expectations around the dollar. Meanwhile, ECB policy expectations remain a key factor, as markets continue to price in rate cuts later this year, but any signs of resilience in the European economy or fiscal expansion could challenge these.

Knocking on the door of $1.30

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

One again, sterling traded within a whisker of the $1.30 handle versus the US dollar, with GBP/USD notching $1.2999 yesterday. The $1.30 handle is a key psychological level, which if overturned, could trigger an acceleration higher as it did in August last year. However, the pound’s already circa 7% rally from its low of 2025 raises the question, is there much more room for it to run higher in the short term?

Monetary policy is a key driver of FX trends and whilst no cuts are expected by the Fed or Bank of England (BoE) this week, the pricing further out favours sterling at this stage. Overnight indexed swaps are pricing in nearly a 75% chance that the BoE will cut in May and just a 25% chance of a cut by the Fed that month, but more easing by the US central bank is expected overall by the end of this year. This is constructive for sterling via an improving UK-US yield spread. But it also leaves it vulnerable to a dovish repricing if sticky services inflation and private sector wage growth start meaningfully easing. For now though, traders are losing confidence that the BoE will be able to meet its inflation target sustainably over its forecast horizon, with breakeven rates across key tenors all well above 3%. Ultimately, the situation is complex for the BoE, and it will likely tread carefully, especially amidst heightened uncertainty due to domestic fiscal policy initiatives and trade policy tensions.

In light of the muddy domestic backdrop then, a break and rally above the $1.30 mark might therefore be more reliant on the fading US exceptionalism narrative, weakening the dollar. Indeed, speculative FX traders are once again betting on the pound appreciating versus the dollar, with CFTC data showing the highest GBP net long position since mid November.

High beta, commodity-linked FX outperforming

Table: 7-day currency trends and trading ranges

Key global risk events

Calendar: March 17-21

All times are in GMT

Have a question? [email protected]

*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.