Focus on Fed’s guidance today – United States


Written by the Market Insights Team

US equities and the US dollar continue to erase post-election gains, with the latter now down almost 4% against a basket of major currencies. Both the pound and euro remain close to year-to-date highs but are in overbought territory. The Japanese yen is volatile this morning in the wake of the Bank of Japan’s decision to keep rates unchanged, and investors await the Fed’s decision later today for more guidance on the pace and timing of rate cuts in the US.

Equity rout continues pre-Fed

Boris Kovacevic – Global Macro Strategist

Hopes of a continued equity rebound have stalled for now, with investors stepping away from risk assets ahead of today’s Federal Reserve (Fed) decision. The bar for rate cuts has crept higher, driven by concerns that inflation remains uncomfortably sticky. Selling resumed on Wall Street with the largest technology names being hit the hardest.

The S&P 500 fell, dragged lower by megacaps hitting their lowest levels since September. Meta officially turned negative for the year, becoming the last of the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks to erase year-to-date gains. The dollar is once again nearing its lowest level since October, having fallen against the euro and pound in yesterday’s session.

Market participants widely expect the Fed to hold rates steady, leaving the focus on updated economic projections and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. Policymakers have signaled a data dependent neutral stance, looking for more evidence of disinflation and greater clarity on the impact of Trump’s policies. Uncertainty surrounding trade has left markets on edge, with investors struggling to price in the full effects of tariffs that appear to change by the week.

Recent data has painted a mixed picture. A stronger-than-expected rebound in single-family housing starts and resilient industrial output have provided some reassurance that the US economy isn’t on the verge of a recession. However, hotter-than-expected import prices added to concerns about inflation becoming entrenched, further complicating the Fed’s path.

Despite softer risk sentiment, the greenback has struggled to capitalize on safe-haven flows, reflecting investor unease over the longer-term impact of Trump’s policies. With Powell set to address the press later today, markets will be watching for any hints about the timing of future cuts. Any signal that rates could remain high for longer may give the dollar a short-term boost, while a more dovish tilt could reignite pressure on the currency.

Chart of DXY and fundamentals

European confidence making a comeback

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

The outlook is brightening across Europe, buoyed by hopes of  Ukraine ceasefire and the passage of a landmark spending package in Germany’s parliament. European equities have outperformed their US counterparts year-to-date, most notably with the German DAX up 17%. The euro is also over 5% stronger than the dollar this year and investors are becoming more optimistic about the future.

Germany’s ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment jumped to 51.6 in March, the highest level in over three years, compared to 26 in the previous month and forecasts of 48.1. The last time the indicator increased this substantially was in January 2023. The assessment of the current economic situation remains stable, but it’s the expectations index that depicts the positive impact surrounding Germany’s fiscal policy, including the agreement on a multibillion-euro financial package for the federal budget. Digging into the details, investors’ expectations of rising inflation has risen to the highest level since 2022. Moreover, while over 60% of respondents still expect interest rates to fall, the proportion has sharply dropped from its 1-year average of 80%. This likely reflects the anticipated effects of fiscal loosening and monetary tightening.

Such conditions should be supportive for the common currency, which continues to hold onto the $1.09 handle and well above its 200-day moving average support nearer $1.07. The Fed’s meeting today could inject fresh directional impetus for the pair, but in overbought territory according to the 14-day relative strength index, we’re dubious of further gains in the very short term.

Chart of German ZEW survey

Profit-taking risk ahead of BoE

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

The pound briefly peered above the $1.30 handle yesterday as the US dollar weakened across the board. However, GBP/USD failed to hold above this key level in sign of exhaustion to the upside as several technical indictors are flashing “overbought”. The prospect of a meaningful pullback cannot be discounted in the coming weeks if the pound continues to stall around these levels.

Market participants might also look be looking to sell sterling ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England (BoE) decision, which recent history shows tends to weigh on the UK currency. Although a dovish Fed might jolt the dollar lower today, traders may look to take profit on the more than 7% uplift in GBP/USD since early February. Looking further down the line, the $1.35 mark could be a key level to target to the upside though if the stars align. We’d need global risk sentiment to improve and the US economic outlook to continue worsening alongside rising UK-US yield spreads. GBP/USD has been under $1.35 now for over two years – its longest ever stint below this level. But should the pair hold above $1.30, bullish traders will likely be eying $1.35 as an upside target later this year. From a technical perspective though, we think the 14-day relative strength index being near to or in overbought territory for most of this month suggests a correction lower might be looming in the very short-term before a resumption of the uptrend takes hold.

On the flipside, sterling’s outlook versus the euro doesn’t look so rosy. The bullish narrative we were pushing last month has been turned on its head since Germany’s decision to boost expenditure, which is viewed as a significant moment for the entire European economy and its growth outlook. We see €1.1740 as a key downside target if GBP/EUR closes below its 50-week moving average this week.

Chart of GBPUSD potential sell off looming

Safe haven gold near all-time highs

Table: 7-day currency trends and trading ranges

Table of FX rates

Key global risk events

Calendar: March 17-21

Table of risk events

All times are in GMT

Have a question? [email protected]

*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.



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Xandeum Unveils pNodes to Improve Solana’s Storage Capabilities


Xandeum Unveils pNodes to Enhance Solana's Storage Capabilities

Key takeaways:

  • Introduction of pNodes: Xandeum’s Provider Nodes (pNodes) offer a decentralized storage layer, integrating seamlessly with Solana’s smart contracts.​
  • Scalable Storage Solution: The network employs configurable redundancy and erasure coding to ensure secure and efficient data storage.​
  • Support for Solana Ecosystem: Xandeum’s infrastructure provides new opportunities for developers and node operators within the expanding Solana ecosystem.​

pNodes: Improving Solana’s storage infrastructure

Xandeum will launch Provider Nodes (pNodes) on its development network, aiming to address the need for scalable and efficient storage within Solana’s smart contract framework. These pNodes form the foundation of Xandeum’s decentralized storage network, enabling seamless integration with Solana’s architecture. By offering scalable, random-access storage, pNodes support the growing demands of data-intensive decentralized applications (dApps) and invite participants to contribute to the network’s expansion.​

Designed for a diverse range of users, pNodes offer an opportunity to engage with Solana’s evolving ecosystem. The decentralized file system utilizes configurable redundancy levels and erasure coding to maintain data security and availability. Validator nodes (vNodes) running Xandeum-enabled software oversee data distribution and integrity across the network.

To enhance efficiency, Xandeum introduces new storage primitives, such as “peek” and “poke,” facilitating smooth data transfer between Solana accounts and the Xandeum storage layer.

Early-stage rollout and network incentives

The initial rollout of pNodes is part of Xandeum’s “Deep South” era, the first of six innovation phases planned for 2025. This phase includes a limited release of 300 incentivized development network pNodes, with a maximum allocation of three per wallet. Once deployed on the main network, all nodes will operate in a permissionless environment.​

As part of this phase, Xandeum will introduce XandMiner, a management tool that allows users to:

  • register pNodes,
  • generate key pairs,
  • and manage file systems efficiently.

These features provide early adopters with a competitive advantage as the decentralized storage ecosystem evolves.​

“A low-cost, decentralized scaling solution will drastically expand the global dApp landscape. It can unlock a new revenue stream for pNode operators as well as Solana validators and stakers. The Xandeum solution will have an enormous impact on the growth of the Solana ecosystem.” — Bernie Blume, CEO, Xandeum Labs

Looking ahead: XAND token and beyond

In addition to the pNodes, Xandeum has launched its native XAND token. The token aims to empower the community, enabling stakeholders to participate actively in the project’s development and decision-making processes.​

Read more about their XAND Token Launch and Solana Storage-Enabled Staking Solution.





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Dividend Kings In Focus: RLI Corp.


Published on March 19th, 2025 by Bob Ciura

The Dividend Kings are a selective group of stocks that have increased their dividends for at least 50 years in a row.

We believe the Dividend Kings are among the highest-quality dividend growth stocks to buy and hold for the long term.

With this in mind, we created a full list of all the Dividend Kings.

You can download the full list, along with important financial metrics such as dividend yields and price-to-earnings ratios, by clicking the link below:

 

RLI Corp. (RLI) is the newest member of the Dividend King list, having announced its 50th consecutive annual dividend increase on February 13th.

This article will discuss the company’s business overview, growth prospects, competitive advantages, and expected returns.

Business Overview

RLI Corp. is an insurance company that operates the following business units: Casualty (healthcare & transportation insurance), Property (fire, earthquake, difference in conditions, marine, etc.) and Surety (contract surety coverage, licenses, and bonds).

Source: Investor Presentation

RLI Corporation reported its fourth quarter earnings results on January 22. The company reported revenues of $440 million for the quarter, which was up 1% year-over-year. Net earned premiums rose by 15% year-over-year.

Realized gains were higher than during the previous year’s period, which had a positive impact on the company’s reported revenues, but net unrealized gains were lower compared to the previous year’s quarter, offset some of the revenue tailwinds.

Higher net investment income, which was up 19% year over year, was a tailwind for RLI’s profitability during the quarter.

RLI Corporation earned $0.41 per share on a non-GAAP, or adjusted, basis during the quarter, which is where RLI backs out one-time items that can distort the picture when it comes to the company’s underlying earnings power.

RLI’s bottom line was lower than during the previous year’s period, but for the entire year of 2024, earnings were up. RLI Corp is forecasted to see its earnings-per-share grow nicely this year, to more than $3.00.

Growth Prospects

RLI Corp. has not been able to grow its profits very consistently in the past, as profits moved sideways for much of the last decade.

This is, in large part, because low interest rates reduced the income RLI can generate with its insurance float at times.

Since 2020, however, RLI Corp. has grown its earnings-per-share very nicely, with earnings-per-share rising by more than 100% between 2020 and 2024.

Higher interest rates allow RLI Corp. to deploy its insurance float in a more profitable way, thus a higher-rates environment is positive for the company, all else equal.

Source: Investor Presentation

RLI has grown its premiums in the recent past, and thanks to further premium growth, RLI should see its sales grow in the future.

We believe that 3% annual earnings-per-share growth is a realistic long-term estimate, factoring in the recent performance and the longer-term track record.

Competitive Advantages & Recession Performance

Many financial corporations, including some insurers, experienced significant difficulty during the Great Recession.

RLI remained profitable, and its earnings-per-share actually grew during the 2008-to-2010-time frame. We believe that RLI Corporation will be relatively stable during future recessions as well.

RLI Corporation has raised its regular dividend very steadily over the years, which was possible due to ongoing increases in the company’s payout ratio over many years.

More recently, the dividend payout ratio has come down again, and the dividend looks very sustainable for now.

During the Great Recession of 2008-2009, it steadily grew earnings-per-share each year in that time:

  • 2008 earnings-per-share of $3.60
  • 2009 earnings-per-share of $4.32 (20% increase)
  • 2010 earnings-per-share of $6.00 (39 increase)

Valuation & Expected Total Returns

Based on expected 2025 earnings-per-share of $3.10, RLI stock trades for a forward P/E of 24.4. This is above our fair value estimate of 19, meaning shares appear overvalued.

RLI Corporation’s price to earnings multiple has been moving in a very wide range in the past. Shares were valued at a low double-digit price to earnings multiple shortly after the Great Recession, but the company’s valuation multiple has exploded upwards since then.

RLI’s valuation remains elevated. We believe that shares are trading above fair value and that multiple compression is likely going forward.

For example, if the P/E multiple declines from 24.4 to 19 over the next five years, it would reduce shareholder returns by -4.9% per year over that time frame.

Aside from changes in the P/E multiple, RLI should also generate returns from earnings growth and dividends. A projection of expected returns is below:

  • 3% earnings-per-share growth
  • 0.8% dividend yield
  • -4.9% multiple reversion

RLI has a regular quarterly dividend, and periodically pays special dividends as well. For example, the company paid shareholders a special dividend of $4.00 per share in 2024, and a $2.00 special dividend in 2023.

However, since special dividends are irregular, we exclude them from our analysis and instead focus on the regular quarterly payouts.

In this scenario, RLI stock is projected to generate a negative total return of -1.1% per year over the next five years.

Final Thoughts

RLI Corporation is an insurance company which generated solid operating results in recent years, with written premiums and investment income rising at a nice pace.

Earnings will likely continue to grow during the next couple of years, but not at an overly fast pace.

RLI Corporation does not have a very strong long-term track record, even though results during recent years were strong, while the outlook for 2025 is compelling as well.

However, we believe that shares are overvalued today. Because of this, RLI Corporation earns a sell recommendation from Sure Dividend at the current valuation level.

Additional Reading

The following articles contain stocks with very long dividend or corporate histories, ripe for selection for dividend growth investors:

Thanks for reading this article. Please send any feedback, corrections, or questions to [email protected].





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Stocks Jump as the Fed Maintains Two Cuts


The Fed give Wall Street what it wanted … how many rate cuts will we get this year? … why Louis is betting on four … tomorrow’s deadline of “Q-Day”

This afternoon, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at the current target range of 4.25% – 4.50%.

This was widely expected. The uncertainty (and risk to the stock market) centered around two questions:

  • How would tariffs, federal layoffs, and the risk of reinflation impact projections for rate cuts, growth, and inflation in the updated “Dot Plot”?
  • Would Federal Reserve Chaiman Jerome Powell sound dovish or hawkish in his press conference?

Well, we got answers – and Wall Street liked ‘em.

All three major indexes jumped this afternoon, led by the Nasdaq’s 1.4% pop. We’ll circle back to this momentarily.

Digging into the details of the “answers” that Wall Street liked, let’s begin with the Fed’s official policy statement and the Dot Plot.

As noted a moment ago, the Fed maintained the current target rate. Perhaps more importantly, the Fed maintained its projection of two quarter-point cuts in 2025.

Similarly, the Dot Plot maintained that two more quarter-point rate cuts are expected in 2026. This is the same expectation as the last Dot Plot from December.

Now, there were some changes.

Fed members project the economy will now grow at just a 1.7% pace this year. That’s down from the 2.1% estimate in December. And core inflation is now expected to grow 2.8%, up from 2.5%.

Plus, the Fed will scale back its “quantitative tightening” program in which it reduces its bond holdings. Instead of allowing $25 billion of Treasurys to roll off its balance sheet each month, the new number is just $5 billion.

Altogether, there was nothing in the updated numbers that spooked Wall Street

Fortunately, neither was there anything “spooky” from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in his live press conference.

Here are the highlights (I’m paraphrasing):

  • The economy remains strong and long-term inflation expectations are well-anchored
  • The labor market is in good shape. Though it’s a “low hiring, low firing” market, it’s sturdy
  • Though it’s early, the Fed isn’t seeing the DOGE/Trump federal job cuts making a major impact on the overall labor market
  • The Fed’s base case is that any price increases from tariffs will result in a one-time bump rather than be the beginning of sustained price increases. That could change, but pass-through inflation is the current expectation
  • It will be challenging to isolate and measure the inflationary impact of tariffs
  • While there’s always some chance of a recession, and recent recession forecasts have climbed slightly, the odds are still “not high”
  • While the “soft data” (such as consumer/investor sentiment surveys) show weakening conditions, the Fed is not seeing any material weakening in the “hard data”

I’ll note that part of the Fed’s decision to maintain the projection of two quarter-point cuts this year (and two more next year) was due to uncertainty.

Several times during the press conference, Powell noted that we’re in a highly uncertain environment, so maintaining the prior forecast was the default position.

Plus, slightly rising inflation and slightly cooling growth largely cancelled each other out – resulting in a maintain-the-status-quo “inertia” for some Fed presidents.

In any case, Wall Street liked what it heard, and stocks roared higher.

In the wake of today’s FOMC meeting, traders can’t decide whether we’ll get two or three quarter-point cuts this year

Sure, the Dot Plot projects only two cuts, but traders are going bigger.

The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows us the probabilities that traders are assigning to various target interest rates from the Fed at different dates in the future.

As you can see below, traders are now putting nearly identical odds (30%/32%) on the Fed cutting rates two and three times by December 2025.

A chart from the CME Group showing traders are now putting nearly identical odds (30%/32%) on the Fed cutting rates two and three times by December 2025.

Source: CME Group FedWatch Tool

But if legendary investor Louis Navellier is right, these traders should go even bigger.

Here’s Louis from yesterday:

It’s widely expected…that the dot plot will signal two more key interest rate cuts this year.

Personally, I think this outlook may be a little conservative. I still expect four key interest rate cuts this year.

The reality is that global interest rates will collapse given weak economic growth in Asia, as well as economic contractions in the U.K., Canada, France, Germany and Mexico.

Global central banks like the Bank of England and the European Central Bank will need to continue cutting key interest rates to shore up their respective economies.

And Treasury yields will continue to decline as global central banks slash key interest rates. Since the Fed does not fight market rates, I expect our central bank will follow suit and cut rates four times this year.

Now, at face value, four quarter-point cuts would be bullish for stocks. After all, lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for companies, boosting bottom-line profits. Plus, investors often are willing to pay higher price-to-earnings (P/E) multiples in low-rate environments.

But what’s the risk that four rate cuts produces a bearish outcome?

The question that will tip the market up or down

Do outsized cut rates represent 1) a bearish, reactionary Fed that’s playing defense against a looming recession, or 2) a bullish, proactive Fed that’s promoting steady growth by aligning interest rates with the neutral rate?

(For newer Digest readers, the neutral rate is the theoretical Fed interest rate that neither helps nor hurts the economy. It cannot be directly measured, and it changes per economic conditions.)

In 1995 and 2019, the interpretation of Fed rate cuts was bullish. That led to a 34% climb for the S&P in 1995, and a 29% gain in 2019.

But in 2001 and 2008, the interpretation was bearish. Investors suffered top-to-bottom intra-year losses of 30% in 2001, and 57% losses in 2008/2009.

Now, we’re not expecting anything like 2001 or 2008. Corporate balance sheets and income statements are in far better shape than during those years. And Powell’s commentary today didn’t reflect any significant concern about a major downturn, much less a recession.

However, as we pointed out in last Friday’s Digest, in the short-term, sentiment is the primary driver of a stock price – not earnings.

See for yourself. The chart below shows that over a one-year period, investor sentiment (referenced on the chart as “multiple” in red) accounts for nearly half of a stock’s performance. Earnings (as represented by “revenue growth” in blue) accounts for just 29%.

Chart showing how in one year, sentiment is the primary driver of a stock price, but the farther out you go, the more it's about fundamental strength (revenue growth)

Source: Morgan Stanley / The Future Investors

So, even though we just finished a strong earnings season – and earnings are expected to remain strong – negative sentiment can do a lot of damage in the short-term.

Has recent, dour sentiment set up an amazing buying opportunity?

Let’s follow the breadcrumbs…

As we noted last Friday, sourcing data from FactSet, for Q2 2025 through Q4 2025, analysts forecast earnings growth rates of 9.7%, 12.1%, and 11.6%, respectively. And for calendar year 2025, analysts predict earnings growth of 11.6%.

Those are robust forecasts, supportive of continued bullishness.

But in the meantime, we’ve been grappling with downbeat sentiment. And what if this recent negative sentiment becomes self-fulfilling (especially if trade wars intensify)?

That potential has us facing two potential scenarios…

  • Recent bearish sentiment proves to be justified as trade wars escalate, eventually hitting earnings (the true market driver). In that case, investors who have been selling are wisely sidestepping a more painful drawdown to come.
  • Recent bearish sentiment proves to be unwarranted as the threat of a recession disappears when trade wars and recession fears fade away. In this case, investors who buy today are wisely taking advantage of the temporary “sale” on great stocks thanks to recent bearish sentiment.

Which will it be?

Circling back to Louis, he just outlined why he’s betting on the bullish scenario

Let’s jump to Louis’ Flash Alert in Breakthrough Stocks yesterday:

Scott Bessett, our Treasury Secretary, was on Maria [Bartiromo]’s show [yesterday] morning and made it clear that we are probably not going to have a recession, and that’s true.

ISM Manufacturing has been growing, so has services. Retail sales were disappointing, but they were heavily impacted by weather again – spending at bars and restaurants were down 1.5% but online shopping was up 2.4%.

So, it wasn’t a bad retail sales report when you look at what we call core spending.

Moving to Louis’ thoughts on tariffs, he added:

All this tariff talk that was jerking Wall Street around has died.

Mark Carney, the new Canadian Prime Minister, said that there’s only so much Canada can do. They really don’t have the ability to do retaliatory tariffs, even though they were threatened, because Canda is a tenth of the size of America which means that America doesn’t care…

All the tariff talk has gone behind the scenes, behind closed doors. I know [Secretary of Commerce] Howard Lutnick personally. I think he is a phenomenal Commerce Secretary and he will do a great job.

This leaves Louis doing what he always does – overlooking fleeting, shifting sentiment and focusing on earnings strength:

I am not worried about all these gyrations and the things distracting people…

As we get closer to the end of earnings announcement season, the crème de la crème rises, which are the stocks with strong sales and earnings…

We have a lot to be excited about.

As we’ve been highlighting in the Digest since last week, one thing that Louis is especially excited about is tomorrow’s “Quantum Day” from Nvidia

If you’re new to the Digest, tomorrow, Nvidia will hold the first ever “Quantum Day” (or what Louis has been calling “Q-Day”) during its annual AI conference this week.

It’s going to bring together industry leaders, developers, and partners to explore the future of quantum computing.

Last week, Louis held a live event where he detailed his belief that Nvidia will announce a big move into quantum computing tomorrow. He also highlighted a tiny, small-cap stock that could be a major beneficiary of any Nvidia quantum initiative.

Here’s Louis:

I believe NVIDIA is about to stake its claim in the quantum computing space. And when it does, a little-known top pick could erupt overnight.

This is a small-cap stock protected by 102 patents with close ties to NVIDIA. It already works closely with NVIDIA, Microsoft, Amazon, and NASA.

Don’t wait until the market fully catches on after tomorrow’s event. Watch the replay of my Next 50X NVIDIA Call now for all the details – before it’s taken down.

As I highlighted in the Digest last week, history shows that partnerships with Nvidia can be lucrative for investors who own the smaller stock that partners with Nvidia.

Sometimes, the gains are great but not lifechanging.

For example, Nvidia’s investment in Applied Digital (APLD) led to a 100%+ increase. And after SoundHound AI (SOUN) partnered with Nvidia, its stock price nearly tripled.

But on certain occasions, the partnerships produce lifechanging wealth.

Quanta Services (PWR) surged 1,000% following its NVIDIA deal. And Super Micro Computer (SMCI) shot up 2,460% after the two companies got into bed.

Louis believes that if Nvidia announces a partnership with his favorite small-cap quantum play, 50X returns are on the table.

For more details, click here for the replay of last week’s event. Tomorrow is Q-Day, so we’re cutting it close to the wire.

We’ll keep you updated on all these stories here in the Digest.

Have a good evening,

Jeff Remsburg



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USD lower as Powell says recession risks “not high” – United States


Written by Steven Dooley, Head of Market Insights, and Shier Lee Lim, Lead FX and Macro Strategist

Powell eases recession fears, soothes markets

Global markets were more positive overnight, with the Australian and NZ dollars higher, after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell announced interest rates would remain on hold and that recession risks for the US were “not high”.

The Fed announced interest rates would stay in the current range of 4.25% to 4.50%; however, the world’s most important central bank also lowered its 2025 growth forecasts from 2.1% to 1.7% and raised 2025 inflation forecasts from 2.5% to 2.7%.

Despite the change in forecasts, markets were mostly cheered by Powell’s commentary, with US shares seeing their best post-Fed gain since July (source: Bloomberg). The S&P 500 gained 1.1%.

The Aussie and kiwi both rebounded from overnight lows with the AUD/USD back near three-month highs and the NZD/USD, boosted by a better December-quarter GDP result this morning, trading to December highs.

The USD/SGD and USD/CNH both moved back to recent lows.

Chart showing inflation on the up

AUD ascends despite mixed signals

Looking forward, the unemployment rate for Australia is released at 11.30am AEDT.

According to our projection, employment increased by more than 60k in February. After a little increase to 4.1% in January, the jobless rate should drop down to 4.0% this time. 

AUD/USD is set to record the third positive month after three consecutive monthly declines into the end of 2024.

Next key support for AUD/USD is the 50-day MA support of 0.6326.

Chart showing AU jobless rate drop down to 4.0% this time

GBP/USD at four-month high ahead of BoE

The British pound remained strong overnight ahead of tonight’s Bank of England decision due at 11.00pm AEDT.

The BoE is seen as likely to keep interest rates on hold, with a less-than 2.0% chance of a cut according to Bloomberg data. Financial markets don’t see a rate cut fully priced in until July with this view contributing to the GBP’s recent strength.

Later tomorrow, the UK GfK consumer confidence report will be released. In February, consumer confidence was at -20, precisely where it had been during the preceding five months.

It will be interesting to see whether there is any pass-through of Europe’s fiscal decisions to UK confidence, or whether concerns about weak growth/tariffs/geopolitical noise dominate.

GBP/USD hit new four-month highs overnight, while GBP/SGD is near eight-month highs. GBP/AUD remains near five-year highs.

Chart showing GBP/USD and its 50- 100- and 200- weekly moving averages

US dollar lower after Fed

Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges  

Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges

Key global risk events

Calendar: 17 – 22 March  

Key global risk events calendar: 17 - 22 March

All times AEDT

Have a question? [email protected]

*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.



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Should You Buy Solana (SOL) While It’s Still Below January 2025 Peak?


​Solana’s cryptocurrency value dropped by almost 50% from its peak earlier this year. Similarly, despite allegations that Solana is perhaps the fastest and most efficient blockchain, its value has been corrected due to market forces and competition from new projects. Investors are now faced with one big question: should they capitalize now or prepare themselves for greater difficulties regarding Solana? While SOL attempts to rebuild, tests indicate that Rexas Finance is surging ahead with a successful presale and separating itself from competitors, emphasizing real-world asset tokenization. Given substantial investor interest and an expanding ecosystem, is Rexas Finance a more lucrative option for long-term crypto investors?

Solana’s Market Performance: Recovery or Further Decline?

Solana’s value has dropped 32.41% over the last three months to $172.26. Although it has made minor profits in the previous few days, it is not near its January 2025 residential peak. Most experts attributed the decline in SOL’s value to profit-taking, network congestion, and a general market cooldown. Solana currently holds an excellent position in the blockchain space. Developers and institutions are still inclined towards the blockchain due to its low transaction fees and fast processing speeds. Whether or not SOL can recover depends on the renewed Solana investors’ market confidence and network stability improvements.

Rexas Finance: A Rising Competitor with Strong Market Demand

As Solana tries to recover, Rexas Finance continues to gain attention through its ongoing presale. It has sold 90.88% of the allocation and included $46.88 million in the overall $56 million goal. Their market launch, scheduled for June 2025, has definitely attracted investors. Rexas Finance differentiates itself from Solana by allowing users to invest in real-life assets like gold and real estate, making it easier to adapt blockchain technology. Their practical approach to investment sure does help make a mark in a volatile market.

Expanding Utility: Solana and Rexas Finance in the dApp Ecosystem

Rexas Finance and Solana focus on dApps as the competitive edge in their business strategies. Solana has created a robust ecosystem of dApps by facilitating low-cost and rapid transaction services, including gaming, NFT, and DeFi projects. Network congestion sometimes poses an issue regarding performance.  At the same time, Rexas Finance seeks to improve the dApp ecosystem by concentrating on tokenizing tangible assets. These include real estate, commodities, and even IPs that go beyond the financial boundaries of a blockchain. By integrating dApps into its ecosystem, Rexas Finance attempts to merge the practical world with the technological advantages of blockchain, offering real value to investors and users.

Security and Investor Confidence: Certik Audit and Community Rewards

Investing in crypto assets presents a security challenge. To mitigate this issue, Rexas Finance has taken steps forward by undergoing a Certik audit, ensuring the company’s smart contracts are secure against breaches. Certik’s verification boosts trust among investors, as they now have more assurance than platforms without third-party audits. Beyond increasing security, Rexas Finance also incentivizes its early adopters by offering a $1 million giveaway. The program has 20 slots, each awarded $50,000, increasing the focus on the presale. The initiative also sets an engagement-friendly $100 minimum investment, allowing for more community participation.

Long-Term Viability: Comparing Growth Potential

The long-term viability of Rexas Finance’s tokenomics is meticulously managed. Inflation is already under control with a capped supply of 1 billion tokens. Part of the supply is assigned to staking rewards and treasuries, ensuring liquidity remains high while aiding growth. Apart from the tokenomics, the project’s capacity to bridge real-world assets onto the blockchain sets it apart. Rexas Finance may appeal more than speculative cryptocurrencies to investors seeking diversification and value preservation.

Conclusion: Is Solana Still a Good Buy?

Although Solana’s decline may offer an attractive buying opportunity, risks remain. As it remains a robust blockchain with institutional support, network congestion and competition are additional challenges that could stifle its recovery. Meanwhile, Rexas Finance is gaining momentum, with a nearly sold-out presale and a secure, real-world asset-backed model. For investors looking beyond short-term price movements, Rexas Finance offers an attractive alternative. Ultimately, the choice depends on risk tolerance. Solana could recover and reach new highs, but Rexas Finance is quickly becoming a strong contender in the crypto space for those looking for a project with tangible value and security.

For more information about Rexas Finance (RXS) visit the links below:

Website: https://rexas.com

Win $1 Million Giveaway: https://bit.ly/Rexas1M

Whitepaper: https://rexas.com/rexas-whitepaper.pdf

Twitter/X: https://x.com/rexasfinance

Telegram: https://t.me/rexasfinance

Disclaimer: The views and opinions presented in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of CoinCheckup. The content of this article should not be considered as investment advice. Always do your own research before deciding to buy, sell or transfer any crypto assets. Past returns do not always guarantee future profits.



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Top 10 Graham Number Dividend Kings Now


Published on March 19th, 2025 by Bob Ciura
Spreadsheet data updated daily

Benjamin Graham is widely considered to be the “founder of value investing”.

In fact, many of the best value investors over time, such as Warren Buffett, used Graham’s teachings to invest in value stocks.

Graham popularized the term intrinsic value, which refers to a stock’s underlying fair value. In this way, investors can determine whether a stock is undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

One of the core principles of Graham’s investment philosophy is the Graham Number.

Investors can apply the Graham Number to find undervalued dividend growth stocks, such as the Dividend Kings.

The Dividend Kings are the best-of-the-best in dividend longevity.

What is a Dividend King? A stock with 50 or more consecutive years of dividend increases.

We’ve compiled a list that includes every Dividend King.

You can see the full downloadable spreadsheet of all 54 Dividend Kings (along with important financial metrics such as dividend yields, payout ratios, and price-to-earnings ratios) by clicking on the link below:

 

The Dividend Kings list includes several mega-cap stocks that have enormous businesses, such as Walmart Inc. (WMT) and Coca-Cola (KO).

The following list represents the 10 Dividend Kings in the Sure Analysis Research Database with the lowest Graham Number.

Table of Contents

Graham Number Overview

The Graham Number is fairly straightforward: investors can simply multiple the price-to-book ratio (P/B) by the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E).

Investors want to focus on stocks with a Graham Number below 22.5, and the lower, the better.

To compile the screen, we took the P/E ratios in the Sure Analysis Research Database, in combination with P/B ratios taken from Ycharts.

We then ranked the list of Dividend Kings by their corresponding Graham Number. The 10 most undervalued Dividend Kings, according to the Graham Number, are listed below.

Top Graham Number Dividend King: Stanley Black & Decker (SWK)

Stanley Black & Decker is a world leader in power tools, hand tools, and related items. The company holds the top global position in tools and storage sales.

Stanley Black & Decker is second in the world in the areas of commercial electronic security and engineered fastening. The company is composed of three segments: tools & outdoor, and industrial.

Source: Investor Presentation

On February 5th, 2025, Stanley Black & Decker announced fourth quarter and full-year results. For the quarter, revenue of $3.75 billion was unchanged from the prior year, but came in $120 million above expectations.

Adjusted earnings-per-share of $1.49 compared favorably to $0.92 in the prior year and was $0.22 ahead of estimates. For the year, revenue declined 3% to $15.4 billion while adjusted earnings-per-share of $4.36 compared to $1.45 in 2023.

Organic growth was flat for the year, but up 3% for the quarter. Organic sales for Tools & Outdoor, the largest segment within the company, was higher by 3% for the quarter.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on SWK (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Top Graham Number Dividend King: H.B. Fuller Companies (FUL)

H.B. Fuller is a leading global manufacturer of adhesives, sealants, and other specialty chemical products.

It has customers across more than 30 market segments in more than 140 countries. The category of industrial adhesives is the core product offering.

In mid-January, H.B. Fuller reported (1/15/25) financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024. Revenue grew 2% and organic revenue was essentially flat year-over-year, as price reductions offset volume growth.

Highlights for the full year can be seen in the image below:

Source: Investor Presentation

It was the third quarter of revenue growth after five consecutive quarters of declining sales amid de-stocking actions of customers and lackluster industrial demand.

However, gross margin shrank from 31.3% to 29.6% and earnings-per-share fell -30%, from $1.32 to $0.92, mostly due to high raw material costs, and missed the analysts’ consensus by $0.01.

Due to slowing demand in some emerging markets, H.B. Fuller provided modest guidance for fiscal 2025. It expects to grow organic revenue by 0%-2% and post earnings-per-share of $3.90-$4.20.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on FUL (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Top Graham Number Dividend King: ABM Industries (ABM)

ABM Industries is a leading provider of facility solutions, which includes janitorial, electrical & lighting, energy solutions, facilities engineering, HVAC & mechanical, landscape & turf, and parking.

The company employs about 124,000 people in more than 350 offices throughout the United States and various international locations, primarily in Canada.

Source: Investor Presentation

ABM Industries reported its fourth quarter earnings results on December 18. Revenues totaled $2.2 billion during the quarter, which was up 4% year-over-year. EBITDA declined by 11% despite higher revenue generation.

Earnings-per-share of $0.90 during the fourth quarter beat the analyst consensus by $0.03. EPS declined by 11% on an adjusted basis, year-over-year.

Earnings-per-share are expected in a range of $3.60 to $3.80 on an adjusted basis. At the guidance midpoint of $3.70 per share, that represents an increase of around 4% relative to 2024.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on ABM (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Top Graham Number Dividend King: Stepan Co. (SCL)

Stepan manufactures basic and intermediate chemicals, including surfactants, specialty products, germicidal and fabric softening quaternaries, phthalic anhydride, polyurethane polyols and special ingredients for the food, supplement, and pharmaceutical markets.

It is organized into three distinct business lines: surfactants, polymers, and specialty products. These businesses serve a wide variety of end markets, meaning that Stepan is not beholden to just a handful of industries.

Source: Investor presentation

The surfactants business is Stepan’s largest by revenue, accounting for ~68% of total sales in the most recent quarter. A surfactant is an organic compound that contains both water-soluble and water-insoluble components.

Stepan posted fourth quarter and full-year earnings on February 19th, 2025, and results were mixed once again. Revenue was down 1.2% year-on-year to $526 million, but did beat estimates by almost $5 million. Adjusted earnings-per-share came to 12 cents, which missed estimates by 21 cents.

Global sales volume was off 1% year-over-year as double-digit growth in surfactants was offset and then some by demand weakness in polymers. Surfactants were up 3% year-over-year in Q4 to $379 million. Polymer net sales fell 12% to $130 million.

The company managed to generate about $13 million in pre-tax cost savings during the quarter, and about $48 million for the full year.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on SCL (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Top Graham Number Dividend King: Black Hills Corp. (BKH)

Black Hills Corporation is an electric utility that provides electricity and natural gas to customers in Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wyoming.

The company has 1.35 million utility customers in eight states. Its natural gas assets include 49,200 miles of natural gas lines. Separately, it has ~9,200 miles of electric lines and 1.4 gigawatts of electric generation capacity.

Source: Investor Presentation

Black Hills Corporation reported its fourth quarter earnings results in February. The company generated revenues of $597 million during the quarter, which was up 1% year-over-year.

Earnings-per-share of $1.37 during the fourth quarter was above the consensus analyst estimate. Earnings-per-share were up by close to 20% versus the previous year’s quarter. Q4 and Q1 are seasonally stronger quarters due to higher natural gas demand for heating, which was again showcased by the above-average profitability during the fourth quarter.

Black Hills Corporation forecasts earnings-per-share of $4.00 to $4.20 for the current fiscal year.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on BKH (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Top Graham Number Dividend King: Northwest Natural Holding (NWN)

Northwest was founded over 160 years ago as a natural gas utility in Portland, Oregon.

It has grown from a very small, local utility that provided gas service to a handful of customers to a very successful regional utility with interests that now include water and wastewater, which were purchased in recent acquisitions.

Source: Investor Presentation

Northwest provides gas service to 2.5 million customers in ~140 communities in Oregon and Washington, serving more than 795,000 connections. It also owns and operates ~35 billion cubic feet of underground gas storage capacity.

On February 28, 2025, Northwest Natural Holding Company (NWN) reported its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024. The company achieved an adjusted net income of $90.6 million for the full year, or $2.33 per share, slightly down from $93.9 million, or $2.59 per share, in 2023.

This decrease was primarily due to regulatory lag affecting the first ten months of 2024 until new Oregon gas utility rates became effective on November 1. The utility margin increased by $26.3 million, mainly due to these new rates.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on NWN (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Top Graham Number Dividend King: United Bankshares (UBSI)

United Bankshares was formed in 1982 and since that time, has acquired more than 30 separate banking institutions.

This focus on acquisitions, in addition to organic growth, has allowed United to expand in the Mid-Atlantic with about $30 billion in total assets, and annual revenue of about $1 billion.

United posted fourth quarter and full-year earnings on January 24th, 2025, and results were better than expected on the bottom line, but missed revenue estimates.

Earnings came to 69 cents per share, which was 33 cents ahead of estimates. Revenue was off slightly to $262 million, missing estimates by $12 million.

Provisions for credit losses came to $6.7 million, a slight improvement year-over-year. Net interest income came to $232 million, up 1% from Q3. The boost came primarily from a lower average rate paid on deposits.

This was partially offset by a lower yield on average net loans and leases held for sale. Average earning assets rose $556 million, or 2%, from Q3. Most of this was due to an increase in short term investments of $420 million.

The yield on average net loans and leases was down 18 basis points from Q3. Net interest margin for the fourth quarter was down three basis points from Q3 at 3.49%.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on UBSI (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Top Graham Number Dividend King: Universal Corp. (UVV)

Universal Corporation is a market leader in supplying leaf tobacco and other plant-based inputs to consumer product manufacturers.

The Tobacco Operations segment buys and sells tobacco used to make cigarettes, cigars, pipe tobacco, and smokeless products.

Universal buys tobacco from its suppliers, processes it, and sells it to large tobacco companies in the US and internationally.

Source: Investor Presentation

The Ingredient Operations deal mainly with vegetables and fruits but is significantly smaller than the tobacco operations.

Universal Corporation reported its third quarter earnings results in February. The company generated revenues of $937 million during the quarter, which was more than the revenues that Universal Corporation generated during the previous period.

Revenues were positively impacted by product mix changes, while larger and better-yielding crops also had a positive impact on the company’s top-line. Universal Corporation’s revenues also rose on a year-over-year basis, showing a 14% increase.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on Universal (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Top Graham Number Dividend King: Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMCB)

Farmers & Merchants Bancorp is a locally owned and operated community bank with 32 locations in California. Due to its small market cap and its low liquidity, it passes under the radar of most investors.

F&M Bank has paid uninterrupted dividends for 88 consecutive years and has raised its dividend for 59 consecutive years.

In late January, F&M Bank reported (1/23/25) financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024. The bank grew its earnings-per-share 9% over the prior year’s quarter, from $28.55 to a new all-time high of $31.11. Loans and deposits grew 1% each.

Net interest income dipped -3% due to a contraction of net interest margin from 4.30% to 4.05% amid higher deposit costs. Management remains optimistic for the foreseeable future, as the bank enjoys one of the widest net interest margins in its sector.

We reiterate that F&M Bank is one of the most resilient banks during downturns, such as the pandemic, a potential recession or the financial turmoil caused by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse and First Republic.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on FMCB (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Top Graham Number Dividend King: Archer Daniels Midland (ADM)

Archer-Daniels-Midland is the largest publicly traded farmland product company in the United States. Its businesses include processing cereal grains, oilseeds, and agricultural storage and transportation.

Archer-Daniels-Midland reported its third-quarter results for Fiscal Year (FY) 2024 on November 18th, 2024.

The company reported adjusted net earnings of $530 million and adjusted EPS of $1.09, both down from the prior year due to a $461 million non-cash charge related to its Wilmar equity investment.

Consolidated cash flows year-to-date reached $2.34 billion, reflecting strong operations despite market challenges.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on ADM (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Additional Reading

Screening to find the best Dividend Kings is not the only way to find high-quality dividend growth stock ideas.

Sure Dividend maintains similar databases on the following useful universes of stocks:

Thanks for reading this article. Please send any feedback, corrections, or questions to [email protected].





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It’s Fed Day – United States


Written by the Market Insights Team

Kevin Ford – FX & Macro Strategist

Tough times for central bankers

It’s Fed Day. The consensus is that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady for the second consecutive meeting. Markets are eagerly awaiting Chair Powell’s press conference, particularly his responses to questions on tariffs, trade policy, and politics. Investors are also keen to see if there will be any forward guidance on monetary policy.

Last week, the Bank of Canada (BoC) reiterated that, given the uncertainty surrounding tariffs, it cannot provide forward guidance. Following yesterday’s CPI data, it seems increasingly likely that the BoC will also hold rates steady at its next meeting. However, the outlook remains uncertain for both central banks. Preferred measures of inflation remain sticky, household and business survey data is concerning, the impact of tariffs on prices has yet to fully materialize in hard data, and economic growth is stalling—not just in Canada, but in the U.S. as well. Adding to the complexity is the ongoing debate over the Fed’s independence, fueled by political noise. The past three years have been anything but easy for central bankers, with challenges ranging from a trade war during Trump ’45 to a pandemic, historic inflation, and regional bank failures. The road ahead looks equally challenging for both Powell and Macklem.

In Canada, inflation was anticipated to rise following the expiration of the tax break, but the price increases turned out to be surprisingly broad-based. The annual inflation rate surged to 2.6% in February 2025, climbing from 1.9% in January. This marks an eight-month high, notably surpassing market expectations of 2.2% and the Bank of Canada’s forecast of 2.5%.

Notably, inflation rebounded sharply in sectors such as restaurants (-1.4% vs. -5.1% in January) and alcoholic beverages purchased from stores (-1.4% vs. -3.6%), driving a significant recovery in the food subindex (1.3% vs. -0.6%). Price increases also regained momentum in clothing and footwear (1.4% vs. -1.3%) and accelerated further in recreation, education, and reading (3.7% vs. 1.9%). Overall, goods inflation has outpaced service inflation, suggesting that the depreciation of the Canadian dollar has contributed to higher prices. The latest report highlights that inflationary pressures have remained persistent, with the recent tax break only temporarily concealing their full impact.

Meanwhile, in the absence of tariff-related noise, the Canadian dollar has slightly appreciated against the U.S. dollar, briefly trading below 1.43. Today, markets anticipate a slightly hawkish tone from Powell, which could introduce some volatility across asset classes.

Chart Canadian inflation

Equity rout continues pre-Fed

Boris Kovacevic – Global Macro Strategist

Hopes of a continued equity rebound have stalled for now, with investors stepping away from risk assets ahead of today’s Federal Reserve (Fed) decision. The bar for rate cuts has crept higher, driven by concerns that inflation remains uncomfortably sticky. Selling resumed on Wall Street with the largest technology names being hit the hardest.

The S&P 500 fell, dragged lower by megacaps hitting their lowest levels since September. Meta officially turned negative for the year, becoming the last of the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks to erase year-to-date gains. The dollar is once again nearing its lowest level since October, having fallen against the euro and pound in yesterday’s session.

Market participants widely expect the Fed to hold rates steady, leaving the focus on updated economic projections and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. Policymakers have signaled a data dependent neutral stance, looking for more evidence of disinflation and greater clarity on the impact of Trump’s policies. Uncertainty surrounding trade has left markets on edge, with investors struggling to price in the full effects of tariffs that appear to change by the week.

Recent data has painted a mixed picture. A stronger-than-expected rebound in single-family housing starts and resilient industrial output have provided some reassurance that the US economy isn’t on the verge of a recession. However, hotter-than-expected import prices added to concerns about inflation becoming entrenched, further complicating the Fed’s path.

Despite softer risk sentiment, the greenback has struggled to capitalize on safe-haven flows, reflecting investor unease over the longer-term impact of Trump’s policies. With Powell set to address the press later today, markets will be watching for any hints about the timing of future cuts. Any signal that rates could remain high for longer may give the dollar a short-term boost, while a more dovish tilt could reignite pressure on the currency.

Chart of DXY and fundamentals

European confidence making a comeback

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

The outlook is brightening across Europe, buoyed by hopes of  Ukraine ceasefire and the passage of a landmark spending package in Germany’s parliament. European equities have outperformed their US counterparts year-to-date, most notably with the German DAX up 17%. The euro is also over 5% stronger than the dollar this year and investors are becoming more optimistic about the future.

Germany’s ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment jumped to 51.6 in March, the highest level in over three years, compared to 26 in the previous month and forecasts of 48.1. The last time the indicator increased this substantially was in January 2023. The assessment of the current economic situation remains stable, but it’s the expectations index that depicts the positive impact surrounding Germany’s fiscal policy, including the agreement on a multibillion-euro financial package for the federal budget. Digging into the details, investors’ expectations of rising inflation has risen to the highest level since 2022. Moreover, while over 60% of respondents still expect interest rates to fall, the proportion has sharply dropped from its 1-year average of 80%. This likely reflects the anticipated effects of fiscal loosening and monetary tightening.

Such conditions should be supportive for the common currency, which continues to hold onto the $1.09 handle and well above its 200-day moving average support nearer $1.07. The Fed’s meeting today could inject fresh directional impetus for the pair, but in overbought territory according to the 14-day relative strength index, we’re dubious of further gains in the very short term.

Chart of German ZEW survey

Profit-taking risk ahead of BoE

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

The pound briefly peered above the $1.30 handle yesterday as the US dollar weakened across the board. However, GBP/USD failed to hold above this key level in sign of exhaustion to the upside as several technical indictors are flashing “overbought”. The prospect of a meaningful pullback cannot be discounted in the coming weeks if the pound continues to stall around these levels.

Market participants might also look be looking to sell sterling ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England (BoE) decision, which recent history shows tends to weigh on the UK currency. Although a dovish Fed might jolt the dollar lower today, traders may look to take profit on the more than 7% uplift in GBP/USD since early February. Looking further down the line, the $1.35 mark could be a key level to target to the upside though if the stars align. We’d need global risk sentiment to improve and the US economic outlook to continue worsening alongside rising UK-US yield spreads. GBP/USD has been under $1.35 now for over two years – its longest ever stint below this level. But should the pair hold above $1.30, bullish traders will likely be eying $1.35 as an upside target later this year. From a technical perspective though, we think the 14-day relative strength index being near to or in overbought territory for most of this month suggests a correction lower might be looming in the very short-term before a resumption of the uptrend takes hold.

On the flipside, sterling’s outlook versus the euro doesn’t look so rosy. The bullish narrative we were pushing last month has been turned on its head since Germany’s decision to boost expenditure, which is viewed as a significant moment for the entire European economy and its growth outlook. We see €1.1740 as a key downside target if GBP/EUR closes below its 50-week moving average this week.

Chart of GBPUSD potential sell off looming

Safe haven gold near all-time highs

Table: 7-day currency trends and trading ranges

Table rates

Key global risk events

Calendar: March 17-21

Table key risk events

All times are in ET

Have a question? [email protected]

*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.



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2026 Minnesota Innovation $1 Featuring Mobile Refrigeration Recommended


Proposed designs for the U.S. Mint’s 2026 American Innovation dollar for Minnesota honor contributions to the development of mobile refrigeration.

Recommended Design 03 and 07a 2026 American Innovation $1 Coin for Minnesota
Recommended designs for the 2026 American Innovation $1 coin for Minnesota. One of these designs is likely to be chosen by the Secretary of the Treasury for the coin’s reverse.

Frederick McKinley Jones, who co-founded Minneapolis-based U.S. Thermo Control – later renamed Thermo King – patented the first refrigerated truck in 1939. His improved Model C, introduced in 1941, was mounted on the front side of a vehicle, revolutionizing the transportation of perishable goods.

“The Model C proved critical during and after World War II, enabling the transport of temperature-sensitive drugs, blood plasma, and food-related goods worldwide. After World War II, the commercially available Model C transformed the agricultural industry,” the U.S. Mint’s design narrative states.

“This technology enabled worldwide shipping of seasonal crops and international trade of perishable goods. This breakthrough paved the way for frozen foods, modern supermarkets, and container shipping – essential to our modern food supply chains and ways of living,” the narrative added.

The U.S. Mint’s American Innovation $1 Coin Program honors pioneering achievements from all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and the five U.S. territories. Introduced in 2018, the series features four unique reverse designs each year, recognizing innovations or innovators that have shaped history.

Design Recommendations for Minnesota Innovation Dollar

Fourteen candidate designs for the Minnesota Innovation dollar were presented by the U.S. Mint to the Citizens Coinage Advisory Committee (CCAC) on Feb. 18 and the Commission of Fine Arts (CFA) on Feb. 20. Both panels expressed broad appreciation for several of the designs.

The Office of the Governor of Minnesota favored design series MN-07 through MN-08DA, with a preference for MN-07A or MN-08A. MN-03 and MN-03A were their secondary choice.

The CCAC selected design MN-03, which depicts a 1940s-era truck with an early front-mounted refrigeration unit. Icons along the truck’s side represent the diverse temperature-sensitive goods made widely transportable by this innovation.

The CFA recommended both MN-03 and MN-07A, noting that each effectively conveys the variety of products that benefited from mobile refrigeration.

“They commented that both designs convey the range of products that could be transported more effectively using mobile refrigeration. They complimented the simplicity and directness of #3, and they described #7A as a handsome composition that renders ‘Minnesota’ in a font that is reminiscent of past graphic representations of the state name,” the CFA’s recommendation letter stated.

Ultimately, the Secretary of the Treasury will make the final design selection after considering input from advisory panels and stakeholders.

Design Images and Design Descriptions

The U.S. Mint’s line art images and design descriptions for all the candidate designs follow.

Candidate Designs 03-6a for 2026 American Innovation $1 Coin for Minnesota
Candidate designs 03-6a for the 2026 American Innovation $1 Coin for Minnesota

MN-03 and MN-03A feature a 1940s-era truck with an early front-mounted refrigeration unit. The icons adorning the side of the truck identify the diverse temperature-sensitive goods whose widespread transportation was made possible by this innovation. The additional inscription is “MOBILE REFRIGERATION.”

MN-04 depicts a vintage truck’s steering wheel encircling a collection of medical and food products, along with a snowflake icon in the background. The snowflake symbolizes the cold temperatures essential for preservation, while the steering wheel invokes the cross-country transport of these vital products. The additional inscription “MOBILE REFRIGERATION” encircles the center crossbar of the steering wheel.

MN-05 and MN-05A illustrate a stylized 1940s-era commercial truck soaring over Earth’s horizon, emphasizing the global impact of mobile refrigeration. The mobile refrigeration unit is emphasized through a dramatic visual accent at the truck’s front mount. The additional inscription is “MOBILE REFRIGERATION.”

MN-06A recognizes that the revolutionary technology of mobile refrigeration began as an idea. This design honors the invention and the notion that many great ideas first come to life on the drafting table. The additional inscription is “MOBILE REFRIGERATION.”

Candidate Designs 7-9 for 2026 American Innovation $1 Coin for Minnesota
Candidate designs 07-09 for the 2026 American Innovation $1 Coin for Minnesota

MN-07 and MN-07A exhibit a 1940s-era delivery truck with a front-mounted mobile refrigeration unit. They honor Minnesota’s agricultural heritage, and the transportation of essential farm products made possible by mobile refrigeration through an agrarian landscape. The additional inscription is “MOBILE REFRIGERATION.”

MN-08, MN-08A, MN-08B, MN-08C, and MN-08D also depict a 1940s-era delivery truck with a front-mounted mobile refrigeration unit. These designs highlight the impact of mobile refrigeration on agriculture and medicine by incorporating sprout, cross, and heartbeat symbols. The additional inscription is “MOBILE REFRIGERATION.”

MN-09 celebrates the wide-ranging impact of mobile refrigeration, with medical supplies and produce arranged above the 1940s-era refrigerated truck that made their transport now possible. The additional inscription is “MOBILE REFRIGERATION.”



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What Will The Economy Look Like With Half As Much Immigration?



Key Takeaways

  • Immigration has plummeted since President Trump took office, with the U.S. now on pace to receive half as many immigrants per year than pre-pandemic rates.
  • The Trump administration has not stepped up the pace of deportations, but fewer refugees are coming to the country.
  • The slowdown could affect industries that heavily rely on immigrant labor, including agriculture and homebuilding.

President Donald Trump’s crackdown on the border has cut immigration to half its pre-pandemic rate, according to a new analysis.

The U.S. is on pace to receive 500,000 immigrants in 2025, down from a typical rate of 1 million per year before the pandemic and a sharp decline from the recent peak of immigration in late 2023 when people were entering the country at a rate of 3.5 million-4 million per year, Elsie Peng, U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a commentary Tuesday.

Reducing immigration was a major focus of President Donald Trump’s run for president, and several actions shortly after his inauguration were aimed at tightening security at the border. He also promised to deport immigrants already in the country, but Goldman didn’t see a major uptick in deportations in the data as of February. Instead, the decline in net immigration was driven by a “collapse” of refugees and other immigrants without visas or green cards to an annualized rate of 200,000 from 1.4 million.

The decrease in immigration could have major effects on the economy, especially if significant numbers of immigrants already in the country without authorization stop working for fear of being deported, as anecdotal reports have suggested.

Certain industries, including agriculture and homebuilding, heavily rely on immigrant labor and may face slowdowns and cost increases. Forecasters at Goldman estimate the Gross Domestic Product, a measure of economic output, will grow 0.1 percentage point slower this year than if 1 million immigrants per year were still coming in.



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