Written by Steven Dooley, Head of Market Insights, and Shier Lee Lim, Lead FX and Macro Strategist
USD loses its shine on growth concerns
The US dollar bucked its usual status as a “safe haven” trade and instead fell for a second session overnight as worries about new tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China caused markets to fret about US growth.
US shares were again weaker overnight with the Dow Jones index down 1.6%.
The USD index fell 1.0% overnight and is now down 1.9% since US president Donald Trump confirmed on Monday that new tariffs would go ahead as planned.
The biggest gains versus the US dollar were in Europe with the euro and British pound jumping higher – both currencies are seen as currently insulated from tariffs while an expectation of increased defence spending also boosted the currencies.
Regionally, the Aussie climbed to three-day highs to gain 0.4%, while the NZD/USD gained 0.6%.
In Asia, the USD fell even faster. The USD/SGD lost 0.6% and neared three-month lows while the USD/CNH dropped a massive 0.7% as it also neared three-month lows.
President Trump and trade policies will likely remain in focus with his 90-minute joint address to the US Congress due at 9.00pm EST (1.00pm AEDT).
AUD/USD remains at risk despite steady GDP outlook
Away from tariffs, the key release today is Australian December-quarter GDP, due at 11.30am AEDT.
We predict a more robust 0.5% quarterly (1.2% year-over-year) increase in Q4 GDP.
For now, the AUD/USD remains in the 0.6200 to 0.6400 trading range, but with the market in a long-term downtrend, the risks remain for a break below support at 0.6085 and a possible eventual break below 0.6000.
KRW vulnerable as inflation eases below 2%
Tomorrow, the CPI for South Korea will be released.
Due in part to base effects, we anticipate that inflation will decrease from 2.2% year over year to 1.9% in February.
Additionally, core inflation probably decreased from 2.0% in January to 1.9% year over year in February.
Recent political events, the possibility of US tariffs, and a worse GDP forecast make a more expansionary budget seem more plausible.
However, we have a negative outlook on KRW. Unlike most markets in Asia, which have seen USD weakness, USD/KRW continues to strengthen and 50-day MA of 1441.48 remains key support.
USD weaker post tariffs, especially in Asia
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
As global trade fractures in 2025, companies face rising tariffs, supply chain turmoil, and shifting economic dynamics.
Geopolitical pressures are reshaping global economic and financial activity leading to what is commonly called a “fractured” global economy. Among other things, a fractured economy is characterized by increased trade barriers and tariffs, geopolitical tensions and shifts to specific trading blocks (like US vs China), changing investment patterns, and supply chain disruptions.
These are not new phenomena, and over time companies have responded by implementing a variety of strategies, such as rationalizing production lines, finding new markets, or near shoring sources of supply to name but a few.
However, 2025 is not business as usual. According to the most recent outlook, in January, by chief economists at the World Economic Forum, this global fragmentation will lead to price increases for consumers and cost increases for business, for the next three years. They also agree that developments in the US will alter the trajectory of the global economy, with the majority saying that US domestic policy will bring a long-term global economic shift rather than a short-term disruption.
Across The Border, Across The Board
In a recent interview, Suzie Petrusic, Senior Analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain Practice, explains that with respect to US trade policy, the big difference between the way that tariffs have been applied in the past and how they are now, is the sheer scope of the tax.
“In the past it’s usually been like taking a scalpel to the tariffs—market by market,” she said. “But these new tariffs are broadly applied, so it’s actually hard for me to imagine an industry that’s not impacted.”
Impending US tariffs, and the retaliatory protectionism expected from China, the EU, Canada and Mexico will likely have highly complex, long term disruptive effects on traditional supply chains and are expected to impact industries and economies world-wide.
For example, it’s anticipated that US tariffs on EU imports will reduce Europe’s GDP by 1.5% in 2025, US GDP will fall by 1.6%, and a 25% tariff on Canadian exports will push that economy into recession.
Global corporate investment patterns will also be impacted. According to recent research by Ernst & Young, the negative direction of US-China relations (as reflected in the recent US ban of TikTok) will likely prompt high-profile Chinese companies to pursue IPOs in alternative markets like Hong Kong or the European exchanges. (EY Global IPO Trends 2024)
And when it comes to specific sectors, there will be winners and losers. At a recent investor conference, Ford CEO Jim Farley, described the potential impact of these sweeping tariffs on both the US automotive industry in general, and more specifically, the bottom lines of non-American automakers.
“Long term, a 25% tariff across the Mexico and Canada borders would blow a hole in the U.S. industry that we’ve never seen,” Farley said. “Frankly, it gives free rein to South Korean, Japanese and European companies that are bringing 1.5 million to 2 million vehicles into the U.S. that wouldn’t be subject to those Mexican and Canadian tariffs. It would be one of the biggest windfalls for those companies ever.” In contrast, upon the announcement of the tax on Canadian producers, American steel maker Alcoa saw a significant bounce in their stock price as investors anticipated higher prices and bloated profit margins for American steel companies.
Levers—Which Levers?
So, what levers will companies pull in 2025 to strategically navigate through this volatile and uncertain environment? As MP Biomedicals CFO Hendry Lim explains, “Companies like ours will continue to adjust sourcing strategies to countries not impacted by the tariff, which allows for diversify of supply and reduction of risk.”
MP Biomedicals—a manufacturer and distributer of life science, fine chemical and diagnostic products with offices and facilities throughout Europe, Asia, Australia and the Americas— has turned its eye to imports from India and Singapore. The company is also rerouting production to their other facilities before entering the US. However, this strategy isn’t clear cut. It’s a complex modelling exercise, Lim explains.
“Of course we’ll have to weigh the freight cost versus the tariff as well as other options, looking at things like geopolitical risk, natural disasters in certain countries, market fluctuations, and then thereafter use financial models to quantify the financial impact and to develop risk mitigation strategies. We then incorporate all these factors into our forecasting. At the end of the day it’s a matter of everyone collaborating and working together to develop a strategy, to actually counteract these risks,” he adds.
Lim, MP Biomedicals: Everyone must collaborate to counteract these risks.
While diversifying supply will likely top strategic agendas in 2025, some companies like General Motors and Walmart will be stockpiling inventory in advance of potential input price increases. However, for companies that are only reacting now, Petrusic says, they may not have a whole lot of optionality in terms of what they can do to completely avoid the impact.
“You may see organizations taking the hit on holding additional inventory to avoid more costs later, but it all boils down to lead time,” she says, citing the difficulties companies face in trying to use inventory planning to minimize tariff risk.
“When it comes to risk management, scenario planning is an essential muscle in this environment,” she says. “But it’s especially difficult right now, because it’s a multifaceted, dynamic, multi-year probability risk event.”
Ultimately, companies will need to bring geostrategic risk into the fore of their scenario planning.
“In doing so, the most helpful thing that any C-suite executive can do, is create alignment at the C level and clarity all the way down through the organization. If you can create that clarity and alignment strategically at the C-suite then you’re able to more confidently know that your people are making decisions that are pulling and pushing towards the same goal,” she explains.
Data Beats Cash
The ability to understand risk also boils down to a company’s investment in technology, explains Rizwan Khan, Managing Partner at Acclime Vietnam, and experienced regional CFO, CIO and auditor.
“There are multiple factors that will affect production costs in this region, like Chinese investment in a company or the percentage of Chinese inputs or raw material in their products. So overall, the tariffs that are being imposed pose a significant risk to companies in Southeast Asia as well. Vietnamese companies will need to focus more on cost reducing efficiencies to remain competitive,” Khan says.
Competitors around the world that are exposed to the same tariffs will have to win on cost reductions, he adds. “My focus is making sure companies are utilizing technology in the most productive way to minimize those costs. In the past, we used to say that cash is king—in the current environment, data is king.”
With so much data available, whether it is from the procurement point of view or from the production point of view, corporate strategies in a volatile trade environment require end to end visibility, he adds.
“When it comes to technology innovations, advanced predictive and prescriptive analytic technology can help companies understand the impact of tariff-related disruptions, by helping them quantify the impact across a supply chain, or help identify specific supplier risks, or forecast changes in demand across regions in real time. This type of end-to-end visibility ensures that companies can respond to shifting market dynamics,” he says.
For now, many are still trying to figure out how 2025 will unfold when it comes to the bubbling trade war of the worlds. How companies will fare this year will depend on how quickly they can respond to emerging barriers to trade and a volatile risk environment.
Crypto gambling has always been a wild ride: one minute, it’s a revolution, the next, regulators are breathing down its neck. What was sci-fi five years ago is now just another Tuesday. And 2025? It’s going to be glorious.
Expect AI casinos reading your soul, meme coins funding your next bet, and, of course, gambling platforms thriving in the chaos. Bitz.io, already a favorite among crypto gamblers, will likely push the boundaries further. Maybe with decentralized tournaments, NFT-based bets, or even AI-powered dealers that know when you really should stop.
Governments will help by launching their own crypto casinos, and smart contracts will be unbreakable until they aren’t. The future is just as bright as a flashing neon sign with a jackpot sound effect.
Governments Will Launch Their Own Crypto Gambling Platforms
In 2025, the same governments that once fought crypto gambling will pivot and embrace it, but on their terms. Expect state-controlled blockchain casinos, where the house edge is set by national authorities and tax collection is instant.
Some countries will justify this as a way to protect citizens from unregulated gambling, while others will see it as a way to tap into a lucrative industry. Here are some possible ways the government might handle crypto gambling:
State-Owned Blockchain Casinos. Fully controlled by the government, all winnings and transactions are traceable. For instance, Thailand is considering legalizing online gambling to generate significant annual revenue.
Mandatory KYC for All Crypto Bets. No more anonymity, as personal IDs will be tied to blockchain wallets. The European Union, for example, has implemented comprehensive KYC regulations to combat financial crimes.
Taxes Embedded in Smart Contracts. A portion of every bet will be automatically sent to tax authorities, ensuring seamless revenue collection.
Banned Private Gambling Platforms. Heavy fines for anyone using non-government crypto gambling sites. In the United States, the federal government is likely to intervene against quasi-gambling products, indicating a move towards stricter regulation.
Ironically, crypto gambling was supposed to be about decentralization. Yet, 2025 may see it being absorbed into the very regulatory frameworks it tried to escape.
Uprising in Virtual Casinos Driven by AI
Forget traditional online gambling. In 2025, AI-driven, fully immersive casinos will replace static betting sites. These casinos will act as living entities: learning player preferences, tailoring game experiences in real-time, and even simulating human dealers with near-perfect emotional responses.
No more generic slots or table games, each experience will be dynamically generated based on the player’s behavior.
Feature
Description
Adaptive Gameplay
AI will adjust game mechanics based on player engagement.
Personalized Odds
No universal odds—AI tailors them based on player history.
Deepfake Dealers
Realistic AI dealers, are indistinguishable from real humans.
Emotion Tracking
AI reads player emotions via webcam or VR sensors.
Blockchain Enforcement
Smart contracts ensure fairness without third-party audits.
With these developments, traditional casinos will struggle to compete, as AI-generated environments will offer players an experience they can’t find anywhere else.
As Ian Tibot, Chief Commercial Officer of Future Anthem, notes, “We see every single spin of a slot, we see every single bet, and we actually understand the experience that the player is having by creating the concept of a session out of that data.”
Meme Coins Will Rule the Gaming Industry
Bitcoin and Ethereum? How boring. In 2025, the real action will be in meme coins, where internet culture collides with high-stakes gambling in the most spectacularly irrational way possible.
Forget boring betting – your fate now rests in the hands of Twitter trends and Elon Musk’s next cryptic tweet. Plus, putting money into a currency with a frog motif just because someone on Reddit suggested it is the epitome of responsible investing (if you ask me).
Coin Name
Concept
Price Prediction for 2025
$PEPE
A meme coin inspired by the Pepe the Frog character, gaining traction in online gambling communities.
Predicted to reach $0.01, contingent on market trends.
$DOGE
The original meme coin, Dogecoin continues to be popular in gambling circles due to its widespread recognition.
Expected to maintain stability with modest growth.
$SHIB
Shiba Inu coin, often dubbed the ‘Dogecoin killer,’ has found its niche in decentralized gambling platforms.
Forecasted to experience gradual appreciation.
$FLOKI
Named after Elon Musk’s pet, Floki Inu has carved out a space in meme coin casinos.
Anticipated to see incremental value increases.
$MEME
A token that embodies the essence of meme culture, used in various online gaming and gambling platforms.
Projected to rise to approximately €0.0183 by the end of 2025.
How to gamble responsibly with meme coins or at least minimize regret:
Accept That Logic Doesn’t Apply: Traditional market analysis? Cute. The only trend that matters is vibes.
Set a Limit: If your investment strategy involves hoping a Shiba Inu GIF pumps your net worth, maybe cap your losses so it won’t ruin your life.
Stay Updated on the Circus: Your financial future may depend on the next big meme. Stay vigilant, dear gambler.
Enjoy the Madness: You’re not here for safe bets, you’re here for the ride. Might as well have fun.
Will meme coins revolutionize crypto gambling? Probably not. Will they create a spectacularly absurd betting landscape filled with chaos, hype, and just enough wins to keep the dream alive? Absolutely.
Smart Contracts Will Introduce Uncheatable Gambling
The promise of smart contracts in gambling is simple: automated, tamper-proof, and completely fair. The reality? While these self-executing contracts eliminate some traditional risks, they are far from invincible.
In 2025, expect increasingly sophisticated exploits, creative loopholes, and a never-ending battle between developers and hackers. The difference? Leading online site Bitz casino investing in rigorous audits and proactive security measures to stay ahead of the game.
Risk Type
Description
Oracles Can Be Hacked
Even decentralized systems rely on external data sources, which can be manipulated.
Hidden Developer Backdoors
Smart contracts are “immutable,” but some devs will still find ways to include secret exploits.
Front-Running Attacks
Betting transactions could be manipulated via MEV (maximal extractable value) attacks.
Game Theory Exploits
Players will find ways to game the system using coordinated blockchain transactions.
Smart contracts are designed to make crypto gambling fairer and more automated, but keeping them secure is still a challenge we need to tackle. It’s really important to have regular audits, keep things updated, and focus on responsible development to make sure we create a safer betting environment.
Conclusion
Crypto gambling in 2025 won’t just evolve, it’ll mutate. AI casinos will know you better than your friends, governments will protect players while taking their cut, and meme coins will turn bets into lottery tickets. Regulators? Still trying to Google Blockchain. One thing’s certain—this game never stops.
The Dividend Aristocrats are a group of stocks in the S&P 500 Index with 25+ years of consecutive dividend increases. These companies have high-quality business models that have stood the test of time and shown a remarkable ability to raise dividends every year regardless of the economy.
We have compiled a list of all 69 Dividend Aristocrats, along with relevant financial metrics like dividend yield and P/E ratios. You can download the full Dividend Aristocrats list by clicking on the link below:
Disclaimer: Sure Dividend is not affiliated with S&P Global in any way. S&P Global owns and maintains The Dividend Aristocrats Index. The information in this article and downloadable spreadsheet is based on Sure Dividend’s own review, summary, and analysis of the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) and other sources, and is meant to help individual investors better understand this ETF and the index upon which it is based. None of the information in this article or spreadsheet is official data from S&P Global. Consult S&P Global for official information.
The list of Dividend Aristocrats is diversified across multiple sectors, including consumer goods, financials, industrials, and healthcare. Surprisingly, the utility sector is underrepresented.
Only three utility stocks are on the list of Dividend Aristocrats: Consolidated Edison (ED), NextEra Energy (NEE), and Atmos Energy (ATO).
Only three utilities are on the list, which may come as a surprise, especially since utilities are widely regarded as steady dividend stocks. This article will discuss Atmos Energy’s path to becoming a Dividend Aristocrat.
Business Overview
Atmos Energy was formed in 1906 in Texas. Since then, it has grown organically and through mergers. Today, Atmos Energy distributes and stores natural gas in eight states, serving over 3 million customers.
In addition, Atmos owns about 5,700 miles of natural gas transmission lines. The utility should generate about $4.8 billion in revenue last year. The company serves over 3 million natural gas customers in eight states.
Atmos posted first quarter earnings on February 5th, 2025. The company reported reported fiscal 2025 Q1 earnings of $2.23 per diluted share, with a net income of $351.9 million. Capital expenditures reached $891.2 million, with 86% dedicated to safety and reliability. The company maintains strong financials, with 60.3% equity capitalization and $5.2 billion in liquidity, alongside $150.5 million in annualized regulatory outcomes.
The company reaffirmed its fiscal 2025 earnings guidance of $7.05–$7.25 per diluted share and expects $3.7 billion in capital expenditures. The Board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.87 per share, raising the annual dividend to $3.48, an 8.1% increase from 2024.
CEO Kevin Akers highlighted the company’s ongoing commitment to safety, reliability, and modernization, crediting its 5,300 employees for delivering strong results that benefit customers and communities.
Growth Prospects
Earnings growth across the utility industry typically mimics GDP growth, plus a couple of percentage points. However, we expect Atmos Energy to continue outperforming this trend due to its focus on capital investment in its regulated operations, a constructive regulatory environment in Texas, and population growth.
As a result, the company should benefit from strong rate base growth, which will generate annual earnings per share growth in accordance with management’s 6%—8% guidance.
New customers, rate increases, and aggressive capital expenditures are Atmos Energy’s growth drivers. One benefit of operating in a regulated industry is that utilities are permitted to raise rates on a regular basis, which virtually assures a steady level of growth.
The company’s primary risk is its ability to achieve timely and positive regulatory rate adjustments. If it achieves lower than expected allowed returns, this could significantly harm profits.
However, we believe Atmos can achieve at least 7% annual EPS growth through continued improvements in gross margin, reductions in operating costs as a percentage of revenue, and top-line growth via acquisitions and organic customer growth.
The companycontinues to file favorable rate cases with its various localities, which also provide for small revenue increases over time, as we saw again in fiscal 2024 full–year results.
Competitive Advantages & Recession Performance
Atmos Energy’s main competitive advantage is the utility industry’s high regulatory hurdles. Gas service is necessary and vital to society. As a result, the industry is highly regulated, making it virtually impossible for a new competitor to enter the market. This provides great certainty to Atmos Energy and its annual earnings.
Another competitive advantage is the company’s stable business model and sound balance sheet, giving it an attractive cost of capital. This enables it to fund accretive acquisitions and growth capital expenditures, driving outsized earnings per share growth.
In addition, the utility business model is highly recession-resistant. While many companies experienced large earnings declines in 2008 and 2009, Atmos Energy’s earnings per share kept growing. Earnings-per-share during the Great Recession are shown below:
2007 earnings-per-share of $1.91
2008 earnings-per-share of $1.99 (4% growth)
2009 earnings-per-share of $2.07 (4% growth)
2010 earnings-per-share of $2.20 (6% growth)
The company still generated healthy growth even during the worst of the economic downturn. Results remained resilient and continued to grow during the pandemic, demonstrating Atmos’ assets’ mission-critical nature.
This resilience has allowed Atmos Energy to continue increasing its dividend each year during these unfavorable market environments.
Valuation & Expected Returns
Atmos Energy is expected to earn $7.20 this year. Based on this, the stock trades with a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.3x. This is above our fair value estimate of 19x earnings, and above the 10-year average price-to-earnings ratio for the stock.
As a result, Atmos Energy shares appear to be overvalued. If the stock valuation compresses from 21.3 to 19 over the next five years, the corresponding multiple compression would decrease annual returns by 1.6%. This could be a slight headwind for future returns.
Fortunately, the stock could still provide positive returns to shareholders, through earnings growth and dividends. We expect the company to grow earnings by 7% per year over the next five years.
In addition, the stock has a current dividend yield of 2.3%. ATO has increased its dividend for 41 consecutive years.
Putting it all together, Atmos Energy’s total expected returns could look like the following:
7% earnings growth
1.6% P/E multiple compression
2.3% dividend yield
Added up, Atmos Energy is expected to generate 7.7% annualized total returns over the next five years, which does not make the stock attractive for investors interested in dividend growth and total returns.
The dividend yield is not substantial but remains attractive, while the dividend appears relatively safe. The company has projected a 2025 payout ratio of ~48%, indicating a sustainable dividend. As a result, we view Atmos Energy as a blue-chip stock.
Final Thoughts
Atmos Energy stock is attractive for investors looking for an above-average yield and regular dividend growth. Because of this, it can serve a valuable purpose in an income investor’s portfolio. The stock offers a very secure and growing dividend income stream, and its dividend yield is well above the average dividend yield of the S&P 500 Index.
Atmos Energy is also a Dividend Aristocrat and should raise its dividend each year. With five-year expected returns of 11% per year, ATO stock is a buy.
Additionally, the following Sure Dividend databases contain the most reliable dividend growers in our investment universe:
If you’re looking for stocks with unique dividend characteristics, consider the following Sure Dividend databases:
The major domestic stock market indices are another solid resource for finding investment ideas. Sure Dividend compiles the following stock market databases and updates them monthly:
Thanks for reading this article. Please send any feedback, corrections, or questions to [email protected].
Most investors expected stability, but cryptocurrencies have delivered spectacle…
After touting his support all along the campaign trail, President Trump initially had cryptocurrencies tearing higher. But as with the rest of the financial markets, cryptos have been stuck on a rollercoaster that would test even the most iron-stomached investors since November’s election.
Indeed, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) rallied 60% in the month after the election on hopes for pro-crypto policies out of D.C. Then, worries about reinflation sent Bitcoin crashing 15%.
As those inflation worries abated, BTC rebounded 15%… only to crash 20% on tariff fears.
Most recently – just this past weekend – Bitcoin popped 10% in a hurry on news that Trump is set to create a strategic national reserve for cryptos. But when the president subsequently announced more tariffs on Monday, BTC gave back all those gains.
It has been a violent and volatile ride over the past few months. The natural question on everyone’s mind is: What’s next?
Perhaps surprisingly, considering what we’ve just outlined, our bullishness stems from Trump.
As we mentioned, shortly after the election, Bitcoin surged from $60,000 to $100,000 on the idea that the president would enact a series of pro-crypto policies that would support innovation and growth in the industry. Since then, however, BTC has stumbled on concerns that the president was de-prioritizing cryptos.
That is, in his first few weeks in office, Trump hit the ground running with tariffs and federal spending cuts. But he moved rather slowly with his crypto-related promises, creating worries that his action would be less than hoped.
This Friday, March 7, Trump is set to host the first-ever White House Crypto Summit. Attendees will include prominent founders, CEOs, and investors from the industry.
We think he could announce more big things at this summit.
Trump is well-aware of how crypto markets have struggled – and of how some crypto investors who supported him on the campaign trail may be disappointed with how the markets have fared so far during his presidency.
That’s why we think he tried to ‘save’ the crypto markets with the announcement of a crypto strategic national reserve on Sunday…
Stepping Up His Crypto Game
That timing was not coincidental.
The week prior, cryptos had crashed due to fears about a looming trade war. Bitcoin dropped to a 2025 low and was in the midst of its biggest selloff since 2022. Things looked bleak.
Seemingly, Trump tried to rescue cryptos from the brink with the highly anticipated announcement about creating a crypto strategic national reserve, something that industry bulls had been wanting since Day 1.
It worked – but only temporarily. Bitcoin surged from $84,000 to $95,000 in a few hours on Sunday. Then, the next day, it crashed all the way back down to $84,000 on renewed tariff fears.
Trump’s attempt to save the crypto markets from the brink this past weekend didn’t work.
We think he will ‘step up his game,’ if you will, on Friday.
We suspect the recent crypto rally didn’t last because Trump’s announcement lacked details. The president said that he would create a strategic national reserve, which would include Bitcoin and some other major altcoins.
But that was it. He didn’t say anything about when such a reserve might be created, how big it would be, or whether or not it needed Congressional approval.
The announcement lacked substance. So, once traders got past the headline euphoria, they sold – and cryptos dropped.
We think Friday’s summit could include some more concrete details on this strategic national reserve. If it does, we suspect traders will latch on and rush to buy the dip.
In fact, we could see Bitcoin make a run for $100,000 by the weekend.
The Final Word on a Coming Crypto Rally
Of course, the big risk here actually has nothing to do with cryptos. That’s all about tariffs.
This week, Trump started a global trade war by enforcing new 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and rolling out additional tariffs on China. It looks like all three countries may retaliate with their own tariffs on U.S. goods.
Anxieties about how this trade war may impact the global economy have weighed on all financial markets, with stock, crypto, commodity prices and bond yields all tanking.
The trade war is not over. That story will continue to unfold over the next few months.
But when it comes to cryptos, trade war anxieties may ease now that the first batch of tariffs has finally hit the tape – a little “buy the rumor, sell the news” action. Meanwhile, those fears could be replaced by policy optimism if Trump does detail concrete steps about creating the crypto strategic national reserve this Friday. We expect he could also announce a flurry of other partnerships and deals with major crypto firms at this event.
Therefore, despite the violent swings we’ve seen in the crypto markets over the past few weeks, we like the setup for cryptos right now. We could see a face-ripping rally into the weekend wherein Bitcoin surges back to $100,000 and some altcoins soar 100%-plus.
To help us get positioned for this rally, we’re using a proprietary quant algorithm that helps us find so-called “Stage 2” tokens that could be on the cusp of a big technical breakout.
Our backtests show that this algorithm could’ve helped uncover some of the biggest altcoin winners in past boom cycles.
For example, this powerful system would have flagged a little-known crypto called Agoras (AGRS/USD) on Nov. 13, 2023. And look what happened next…
In less than a month, AGRS went from 33 cents to over $6.
In other words, you could have had the chance to make nearly 1,800% in less than 30 days had you gotten this alert. That’s nearly 18X your money in less than a month.
We’re confident our system could help us home in on some major winners in the next few weeks, too.
On the date of publication, Luke Lango did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.
P.S. You can stay up to speed with Luke’s latest market analysis by reading our Daily Notes! Check out the latest issue on your Innovation Investor or Early Stage Investor subscriber site.
Since 2016, Anne-Laure Autret-Cornet has been the CFO of OSE Immunotherapeutics, a biotech dedicated to immuno-oncology and immuno-inflammation. The Nantes, France-based company went public on the Euronext Paris stock exchange in late March 2015.
Global Finance: What has been your biggest challenge as CFO?
Anne-Laure Autret-Cornet: In the biotech sector, we are always fundraising. In Europe, it is even more challenging, not only because of the economic and political challenges, but also because the markets have been rather sluggish since 2023. That said, OSE managed to secure funding until first-quarter 2027. Of course, the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic were very challenging. The uncertainty and rapid changes in the global market required quick adaptation and strategic financial planning to ensure the stability and continuity of our operations.
GF: Where has the bulk of your energy and time been directed in the last year?
Autret-Cornet: Along with our CEO and chief business officer, I was focused on securing funding for our ongoing and upcoming research and development projects. We received a grant of €8.4 million in non-dilutive public funding to support a Phase 3 clinical trial of our cancer vaccine, Tedopi, in lung cancer. In addition, we signed a major strategic partnership with AbbVie last February. This involves the development of OSE-230, a novel monoclonal antibody, and included an upfront payment of $48 million with potential milestone payments and royalties. And we have ongoing important collaborations with other companies such as Boehringer Ingelheim and Veloxis Pharmaceuticals.
These partnerships underscore our commitment to advancing innovative therapies and highlight the value of our research and development capabilities. All this effort last year, in addition to some positive clinical trial results, has increased confidence in our company, resulting in a solid financial position until 2027 and a stock price increase of around 69% year-on-year.
GF: How important is having a top team?
Autret-Cornet: In small companies like ours, resources are stretched, and so it is critical to have the best talent to achieve our strategic goals. I aim to bring on board team members who not only have the right skills and experience but also align with our company values and culture. As CFO, I also head up human resources, legal, and information technology—so it’s critical to have people who are highly accountable, incredibly engaged, and collaborate well across the organization.
GF: Can European governments do more to boost innovation?
Autret-Cornet: European countries can increase investment in research and development, provide tax incentives for innovative companies, and foster collaboration between academia and industry. We are seeing an increased use of artificial intelligence to speed up drug discovery and development processes. OSE recently announced a strategic collaboration in this space with Scienta Lab, a leader in AI-driven precision immunology.
GF: How are you making use of AI in finance at OSE?
Autret-Cornet: AI has been implemented for two years in our financial system. Already we have seen how it helps improve efficiency, accuracy, and decision-making processes: for example, in predictive analytics, scenario modeling, risk management, and automating routine tasks. I see AI evolving to become an integral part of financial operations, providing deeper insights and enabling more strategic decision-making. Beyond the AI tools we are using in our research and development processes, we are deploying tools that help employees in some of their daily tasks, and I’ll be keeping an eye out to see what more we can do.
GF: What keeps you up at night?
Autret-Cornet: Ensuring the financial health and sustainability of the company is always on my mind. Additionally, staying ahead of market trends and regulatory changes is a constant challenge.
Produced and issued for the coin collector community, the United States Mint will release its 2025 Proof Set today at noon ET. Found within this year’s annual set are ten proof quality examples of the nation’s circulating coinage, all manufactured at the U.S. Mint’s San Francisco facility.
U.S. Mint product image of their 2025 Proof Set. The five quarters of the set appear together in one protective lens with the remaining five coins completing a second lens.
Each clad coin in the set features the U.S. Mint’s proof finish, highlighting sharp reliefs and mirror-like backgrounds with frosted, sculpted foregrounds. Struck multiple times with polished dies and hand-polished blanks, these coins exhibit greater detail than their circulating counterparts.
This year’s proof set includes ten coins:
2025-S Native American $1 Coin (honoring Mary Kawena Pukui)
2025-S Kennedy Half Dollar
2025-S Ida B. Wells Quarter
2025-S Juliette Gordon Low Quarter
2025-S Dr. Vera Rubin Quarter
2025-S Stacey Park Milbern Quarter
2025-S Althea Gibson Quarter
2025-S Roosevelt Dime
2025-S Jefferson Nickel
2025-S Lincoln Cent
The set’s five quarters are housed together in a single protective lens, mirroring their presentation in the earlier released 2025 Quarters Proof Set, which contained the same coins and launched on February 20. These quarters stand out not only for their designs but also because they are issued exclusively in 2025.
This CoinNews photo shows a lens holding the year’s five quarters in the separately sold 2025 American Women Quarters Proof Set, priced at $26.50. These quarters are also included in the 2025 Proof Set, which contains an additional five coins. The 2025 Proof Set is priced at $40.25.
Another year-specific release in the set is the Mary Kawena Pukui Native American $1 Coin, which will also be produced only in 2025. The remaining five coins – the Kennedy half dollar, Roosevelt dime, Jefferson nickel, and Lincoln cent – feature longstanding designs that have appeared in previous years.
2025 Proof Set Coin Specifications
Here are the specifications for the clad coins included in the set:
Recent annual sales of the proof sets have reached the following figures:
2024 Proof Set
355,754
2023 Proof Set
369,233
2022 Proof Set
400,001
2021 Proof Set
512,866
2020 Proof Set
464,730
2019 Proof Set
601,364
2018 Proof Set
517,081
2017 Proof Set
568,678
Price, Limits and Ordering
Priced at $40.25, the set costs more than last year’s version, which contained the same number of coins and debuted at $35. Notably, the U.S. Mint set a maximum mintage of 420,002 for this release, whereas the 2024 set had no stated mintage limit.
The Dividend Aristocrats are a group of 69 companies in the S&P 500 Index, with 25+ consecutive years of dividend increases. The Dividend Aristocrats each have strong business models, with competitive advantages that provide them with the ability to raise their dividends each year.
There are currently 69 Dividend Aristocrats. You can download an Excel spreadsheet of all 69 Dividend Aristocrats (with important financial metrics such as price-to-earnings ratios and dividend yields) by clicking the link below:
Disclaimer: Sure Dividend is not affiliated with S&P Global in any way. S&P Global owns and maintains The Dividend Aristocrats Index. The information in this article and downloadable spreadsheet is based on Sure Dividend’s own review, summary, and analysis of the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) and other sources, and is meant to help individual investors better understand this ETF and the index upon which it is based. None of the information in this article or spreadsheet is official data from S&P Global. Consult S&P Global for official information.
In order to become a Dividend Aristocrat, a company must possess a profitable business model and durable competitive advantages, along with the ability to raise dividends even during recessions.
Consumer staples stocks such as Amcor plc (AMCR) have all the necessary qualities of a Dividend Aristocrat.
Amcor has increased its dividend for over 27 years in a row. Thanks to a very strong product portfolio, it has maintained its dividend growth streak.
Business Overview
Amcor plc, which trades on the NYSE today, was formed in June 2019 after the merger between two packaging companies, U.S.-based Bemis Co. Inc. and Australia-based Amcor Ltd.
Amcor develops and manufactures a wide range of packaging products for many consumer uses worldwide, including food and beverage, medical and medicinal, and home and personal care.
It consists of two main business segments: Flexible Packaging and Rigid Packaging.
Amcor reported its second quarter Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 results on February 4th, 2025. Amcor reported solid financial results for the second quarter and first half of fiscal 2025, reaffirming its full-year outlook. In the December 2024 quarter, net sales reached $3.24 billion, with GAAP net income of $163 million and adjusted EPS rising 5% to 16.1 cents per share. First-half net sales totaled $6.59 billion, with GAAP net income of $354 million and adjusted EPS increasing 5% to 32.2 cents per share. The company also declared a quarterly dividend of 12.75 cents per share, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year.
Amcor continued to demonstrate steady volume growth, marking its fourth consecutive quarter of sequential improvement. Adjusted EBIT rose 5% in the second quarter and 4% for the first half on a comparable constant currency basis, supported by expanding margins and strong cost management. Despite challenges in certain sectors like healthcare, the company maintained stability across its flexible and rigid packaging segments. It also reaffirmed its fiscal 2025 guidance, projecting adjusted EPS of 72–76 cents per share and free cash flow between $900 million and $1 billion.
A major highlight of the quarter was Amcor’s announced merger with Berry Global, which is expected to accelerate growth and enhance shareholder value. The combination will create a stronger, more innovative packaging company with $650 million in identified synergies. The deal is expected to close by mid-2025, expanding Amcor’s portfolio and strengthening its position in key markets. CEO Peter Konieczny emphasized that the merger aligns with Amcor’s focus on customers, sustainability, and innovation.
Amcor is counting on its Bemis acquisition to drive strong growth over the next half-decade. The main factors that will drive this growth acceleration are its global footprint, which will open up new attractive end markets and customers for the company’s products, and greater economies of scale, which will drive efficiencies and higher margins.
Another growth catalyst for Amcor is the emerging markets such as China and Latin America, where economic growth is high and demand for packaging products is rising.
The company is also undergoing an aggressive share buyback program that should boost per-share growth.
Furthermore, its balance sheet is quite strong, with a relatively low leverage ratio, giving it flexibility to finance its dividends and share repurchases and remain opportunistic about future growth opportunities.
We believe that all of these factors should combine to generate solid 4% annualized earnings per share growth over the next half decade.
Competitive Advantages & Recession Performance
Its industry leadership position fuels Amcor’s competitive advantages. Although Amcor’s headquarters are in Europe, its largest markets are in the Americas. That means Amcor should be relatively safe from potential future declines to the pound (or to the Australian dollar, for that matter).
In addition, Amcor’s products are used every day around the world. People around the world will continue to need packaging. Amcor’s emphasis on recyclable and reusable products should appeal to more environmentally conscious end users, while the merger with Bemis brings it huge prospects in developing markets.
Plus, with the merger into one gigantic manufacturing entity, Amcor has increased ability to negotiate better costs from its suppliers. This should make Amcor an unstoppable force in the packaging industry.
Amcor is also fairly resistant to recessions. As Amcor as it exists today (post merger) was not a publicly-traded company during the Great Recession, its earnings-per-share performance during the downturn is not available.
It is reasonable to assume Amcor’s earnings-per-share would decline somewhat during a recession, as the company’s global business model is reliant on economic growth. But it should continue paying (and raising) its dividend each year for the foreseeable future.
Valuation & Expected Returns
We expect Amcor to generate earnings per share of $0.73 in 2025. Based on this, shares of Amcor are currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.8.
Even using a conservative multiple, we think that a recession-resistant Dividend Aristocrat with mid-single-digit growth prospects such as Amcor should trade for 15 times earnings. Therefore, we view the stock as undervalued valued right now.
A fair five-year expected earnings-per-share growth rate of 4.0% and the 5.0% dividend yield will help boost shareholder returns. We expect annualized total annual returns of approximately 10.7% through 2030.
Final Thoughts
Amcor is uniquely positioned for strong growth in the coming years thanks to its recent acquisition, which has opened up several new attractive end markets and provided an opportunity to unlock valuable synergies. Furthermore, the company has the balance sheet to fund growth investments and share repurchases, which should boost EPS moving forward.
As a result, we think that shares offer decent value here. With expectations of ~10.7% annualized total returns over the next half decade, we view Amcor as an attractive buy right now.
That said, it could be an opportunity for dividend growth investors with a more conservative outlook, as its 5.0% yield is above average for the S&P 500 and its strong growth track record and recession-resistant business model make it an attractive long-term holding.
Finally, with its solid growth outlook, it will likely continue growing its dividend for the foreseeable future.
If you are interested in finding more high-quality dividend growth stocks suitable for long-term investment, the following Sure Dividend databases will be useful:
The major domestic stock market indices are another solid resource for finding investment ideas. Sure Dividend compiles the following stock market databases and updates them monthly:
Thanks for reading this article. Please send any feedback, corrections, or questions to [email protected].
I was great at buying the right stocks… but I was a terrible investor.
Editor’s Note: A lot of folks know I recommended NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) back in 2019.
And since then, that stock has soared more than 3,000%.
I still consider NVIDIA my Stock of the Decade. But I don’t love the stock. Because after more than four decades in the market, I’ve learned not to “fall in love” with any particular stock.
Instead, I let the fundamentals speak for themselves. And that’s why I rely on my proven quant system to be my guiding star.
After all, it doesn’t have an emotional connection to a stock. It lets the numbers do the talking.
My friend and colleague Keith Kaplan, operates the same way.
Keith is a gifted computer programmer and fintech pioneer. He’s the CEO of a company called TradeSmith, which produces some of the most powerful stock-trading algorithms I’ve seen. More than 60,000 people use Keith’s algorithms to track some $30 billion in assets. And they’ve reported making millions in the process.
For the past three months, Keith’s team has been working on a highly secretive project. It’s a new kind of algorithm designed to do one thing: detect the start of technical melt-ups before they happen.
And right now, it’s pointing to an ultra-rare event poised to disrupt the market… In fact, it has only been seen twice before going back to the year 1900. And that’s why Keith is making what he calls “the biggest prediction in TradeSmith’s 20-year history.”
And just days from now, he’ll reveal his full prediction for the first time ever.
Either one could become the Next NVIDIA in terms of potential gains.
You’ll get his full list – and his full prediction – when you join his briefing next Thursday. I suggest you go here and get your name on Keith’s attendee list right now.
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I love stocks and the market. I love reading about, thinking about it and, best of all, profiting from it.
But year after year, I found the same thing happening to me over and over again.
I was great at buying the right stocks… but I was a terrible investor.
If you’re anything like the average investor, this has happened to you too.
Ask yourself this: How many times have you bought a stock, then sold it, just to find out that it rose much further?
This happens for a few reasons. And chances are, if you’re anything like me, it’s happened to you in the past… a lot.
To help prevent this kind of impulsive decision making, I made it my mission to develop a system that prevents me from doing that to my portfolio…
It has worked wonders for me!
And it can help you too.
And today I’m going to show you how it works…
The Right Way to Buy and Sell
In October 2016, I bought Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).
This action makes me look like a genius; AMD has gained more than 1,000% since I bought into the stock.
But I’m not a genius because I sold nearly right away …
Why did I sell?
I trusted my gut. The same gut that I trust to judge right and wrong and who to be friends with. You know, the emotional being in me that makes all my decisions.
Clearly, that didn’t work out well for me. And you probably have a lot of these types of examples too.
So how is it that we can buy the right stocks, but we wind up being terrible investors?
Well, because we make quick decisions when we trust our gut.
Do you have a regimented process for understanding exactly when to buy a stock, how much to buy, and when to sell it?
I do NOW, and it all starts with this formula below …
Before I unpack this for you, let me tell you about the findings of two Nobel Prize winners in behavioral economics.
You may have heard about Richard Thaler and Daniel Kahneman. Their groundbreaking studies of behavioral economics and investor psychology ultimately won them both the Nobel Prize.
Their first finding was that we are “risk-seeking when we’re losing.”
This is simple. And I bet you’ve had this happen plenty of times. I call it “rationalizing your decision after you make it.” When a stock is falling, you say to yourself:
I’m going to buy this on the dip.
This stock will come back, and my break-even price will be lower.
It’s just a paper loss.
Really, what you’re doing is adding more risk to your position. You are “seeking out more risk” by buying more OR holding on to a falling stock.
Momentum is the single most important factor in investing. MSCI Inc. has studied this factor and labeled it one of the most important in reference to a stock’s rising or falling. Here’s what that means in plain speak: When a stock has a confirmed uptrend, it is more likely to rise in the short term. When a stock has a confirmed downtrend, it is more likely to fall in the short term.
And by buying more of a stock as it’s falling, or by “waiting” for that stock to turn around, you are taking on risk and even increasing risk. You are setting yourself up to lose more money.
So how do you combat that? You cut your losses when a stock is in a confirmed downtrend. Stop the bleeding.
But what Thaler and Kahneman found about winning is even more important to understand. They found that when a stock rises, we are “risk-averse when we are winning.”
Here’s what that means, and I’m sure you’ve been there with me. Typically, when a stock is rising, we get excited. We have a winner! So we decide to sell our stock to “lock in our gains.”
Folks, that’s lowering our risk. That’s taking money off the table.
But we’re winning!
When a stock is rising, and it is in a confirmed uptrend, you are winning. Here is where you want to take more risk, folks!
This is the BEST TIME to either ride the winner higher or even add more money to the position to take advantage of its short-term rising outlook.
And that leads me to our (TradeSmith’s) discovery of the single most important number in investing AND why it works.
This number is the formula I showed you above for the “VQ,” which stands for Volatility Quotient.
And it solves so many problems that individual investors face today. Certainly people like me, and likely you as well.
It’s a measure of historical and recent volatility – or risk – in a stock, fund, or crypto. And that measurement is really focused on the moves a stock, fund, or crypto makes.
Here’s what it tells you (I’ll just refer to stocks, but it covers everything we track):
How much of a stock to buy.
And how risky that stock is – how much movement you should expect.
To show you an example, here are the VQs of some popular stocks:
Let me leave you with a single nugget that may change your investing life forever. It certainly has changed mine …
The trend is your friend.
If the confirmed trend is up, stay in your stock. Ride the winner! If the trend is a confirmed downtrend, cut your losses.
The best way to get the most out of a winner and cut the loser (and of course, winners become losers at times) is to deploy a trailing stop. A trailing stop acts as a point at which you sell a stock (or any other fund, crypto, etc.).
When you buy a stock, you specify what your trailing stop is – most people pick a “generic” number like 25%. That means that from the moment you own a stock, there is a stop loss number at which you will then sell the stock, and the trailing stop trails the highs (but not the lows) that the stock makes.
If you buy a stock at $100 and it goes down over time by 25% and never makes a new high since you purchased it, you sell at $75.
If that stock rises to $200 and never falls 25% from a high, you’re still in that position, and your stop out point is $150.
So you ride your winners and cut your losers.
But NO TWO stocks, funds, or cryptos are the same. That’s why you can use the VQ number for each stock you buy to determine exactly what the right stop loss would be.
Looking at the table I posted above with popular VQs, that means your stop loss for Johnson & Johnson would be about 12%. But for Tesla, your stop loss would be around 49%.
Tesla moves around more than three times as much as Johnson & Johnson. Now you know that if you were to buy Tesla, you would have to suffer through a lot of thrashing around, but it may be worth it.
And on my AMD trade, had I followed a 25% trailing stop, I would have made nearly 50% instead of losing 3.5%!
And had I used a VQ-based trailing stop, well, I could have followed the signals and made more than 1,300%. I would have known that AMD is risky and moves around a lot.
So… the VQ is important. It sets expectations and gives you a framework for making better decisions.
It turns great stock pickers into great investors!
I honestly believe it’s the most important number in investing.
Most market participants were expecting a pause in tariffs for at least another month. However, following last weekend’s heated meeting with Ukraine’s leader, it seems President Trump couldn’t afford to adopt a softer stance. He made it unequivocally clear that there’s no room for America’s closest neighbors to negotiate their way out of these duties. This marked a shift from his typical transactional approach, igniting concerns across equity markets, which erased last Friday’s gains. A wave of risk-aversion swept through North American markets as investors grappled with the implications of a new regional trade war.
Interestingly, the USD/CAD’s reaction to Trump’s confirmation of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and confirmation of Canada’s retaliatory tariffs has been notably subdued compared to a month ago. This could reflect tariff fatigue, the market’s preemptive pricing of the news, or an adaptation to the ever-evolving tariff landscape. However, the most compelling factor appears to be the shifting narrative around the US dollar. Recent soft macro data, fears of competitive devaluation, and potential policy missteps have weighed heavily on the greenback, softening its immediate impact on the Loonie. Yesterday, the US dollar DXY index dropped 0.9%, underscoring this trend. In the chaos of price discovery, the dollar’s dominance has waned, US rates are lower, Bitcoin has retreated from six-digit highs, and US stocks have shifted from leaders to laggards.
Over the past two weeks, the macro narrative has shifted dramatically. On February 12th, Fed Chair Jay Powell highlighted solid economic growth during his Congressional testimony. Yet, just two weeks later, the Atlanta Fed Nowcast slashed its Q1 GDP estimate from +2.9% to -1.5%, driven by trade disruptions as Americans rushed to import goods ahead of tariffs. Other factors—declining consumer confidence, weaker retail activity, and falling inflation expectations—have compounded the slowdown.
Adding to uncertainty, yesterday, the ISM manufacturing index slipped to 50.3 in February, missing expectations. Gains in supplier delivery times offset declines in new orders and employment, but without the supplier delivery boost, the index would have signaled contraction. While a US recession remains unlikely, the risks of a broader slowdown are steadily gaining traction.
For now, when it comes to this regional trade war, the key concern is duration. The longer tariffs remain in place, the more challenging it will be—particularly for Canada—to adjust its fiscal, monetary, and internal trade policies to this new economic reality.
USD: Macro weakness trumps tariff risks
Boris Kovacevic – Global Macro Strategist
Investors don’t like to fight an economic trend once it has established itself. That risk averse behavior is on display this week as investors continue to rotate from equities to bonds on every data miss we get. Mounting signs suggest that U.S. economic momentum is slowing. Last week’s data surprised to the downside, and the deterioration continued with the latest ISM PMI report. The manufacturing barometer rose less than expected in February, inching up from 50.9 to 50.3—barely signaling expansion. Meanwhile, the employment index slipped into negative territory, and price growth accelerated in anticipation of tariffs.
The impact: The Atlanta Fed’s Q1 GDP nowcast plunged from 2.3% just two days ago to -2.8%, a dramatic 5% downward swing. This shift underscores the transition from U.S. exceptionalism to rising stagflation risks. The dollar fell nearly 1%, erasing last week’s tariff-induced gains. So far, our Greenback thesis from a month ago has proven correct—we expected the U.S. dollar to be pulled between tariff hikes (supportive) and weakening macro data (detrimental). With tariffs seemingly better priced in than deteriorating data, EUR/USD and GBP/USD have responded asymmetrically in our favour.
However, FX investors cannot afford complacency regarding trade risks. President Trump dismissed any hope of further tariff delays on Canadian and Mexican goods, tweeting yesterday that negotiations were off the table. Equity benchmarks declined across the board as the dollar regained some stability, yet the tariff drama was insufficient to fully offset the macro-driven losses from yesterday’s session.
EUR: supported by European defence spending
George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist
It doesn’t bode well for Europe that US President Donald Trump followed through on his tariff threats against Mexico, Canada and China, promoting swift retaliation from the latter two. European equity future are down almost 1% this morning, reversing some of Monday’s defence-led rally as investors upped their bets that governments across the region will have to boost expenditure and shoulder more of the burden for their security. Will this really support Eurozone growth and curtail some of the ECB’s easing cycle though?
The main reason for the euro’s resilience of late has been the softer US economic backdrop, but the news of potential increases in Eurozone defence spending also appears to have lifted euro sentiment. EUR/USD rose back above $1.05 briefly, rebounding from a two-week low of $1.0360 touched on Friday. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Britain and France will lead a “coalition of the willing” to draft a plan with Kyiv and allies to end the Russia-Ukraine war and ensure security guarantees for the US. Germany may play a key role in boosting defence spending, with reports suggesting new special funds of up to €900bn for defence and infrastructure spending. This spending and rising hopes of a peace deal in Ukraine supported the euro, trumping the tariff risk for now, but increased risk aversion across financial markets will likely limit the upside potential, and indeed we’ve seen EUR/USD slip back under $1.05 already this morning.
On the macro front, yesterday’s Eurozone inflation data revealed inflation fell for the first time in four months to 2.4%, underpinning ECB rate-setters’ hopes that the recent uptick in price pressures is proving temporary. The February figure was slightly worse than economists’ expectations 2.3%, however, two measures of underlying inflation also ticked down, such as services inflation, which came in at 3.7% from 3.9% – the lowest level since April 2024.
GBP: turning bullish versus dollar
George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist
Sterling catapulted above its 100-day moving average of $1.2620 yesterday, recording a daily gain of around 1% and hitting a fresh 2025 high of $1.2723. Such a move could lead to further gains towards the 200-day moving average at $1.2785 with short-dated implied volatility on the pound rising for a fifth straight day — the longest winning streak since late December.
We’ve recently been reporting whether the pound would exhibit it’s typical risk-averse behaviour in the wake of tariffs or whether it is safe haven of sorts as the UK is seen as less vulnerable to US tariffs due to the UK’s goods trade deficit with the US. Arguably, it’s neither in this case, as FX markets appear to be more concerned around the economic slowdown in the US alongside European leaders pushing forward with plans to boost defence spending and support Ukraine. Sterling also gained strength from expectations that UK interest rates will remain higher for longer. Bank of England Deputy Governor Ramsden highlighted that persistent wage pressures could keep inflation above target, though he noted future rate cuts may not be gradual. This outlook, combined with geopolitical developments, has boosted investor confidence in the pound for now.
There is certainly evidence of trade-sensitive currencies weakening with GBP/CAD rising to a new 7-year high and GBP/AUD scaling a new 5-year high, but the illiquid and risk-sensitive Swedish krona has been the top performer this week. The krona has emerged as a favoured currency, surging more than 2% versus the US dollar on Monday and GBP/SEK falling almost two standard deviations more than its average daily shift to the downside. Why? Because the Sweden’s military industry is seen as a major beneficiary of any funding increase with defence exports among the biggest of major economies as a share of GDP.
*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
