Why Wall Street Analysts Say Nvidia Could Be a DeepSeek ‘Beneficiary’



Key Takeaways

  • This week’s post-earnings losses brought Nvidia’s stock near the January lows that came after a DeepSeek-driven plunge. 
  • Analysts have largely remained bullish, pointing to Nvidia’s strong outlook on the back of growing AI demand.
  • Several also said they expect Nvidia to benefit from DeepSeek’s emergence and growing competition.

Nvidia’s (NVDA) stock has had a tough start to 2025, with this week’s post-earnings plunge dragging shares back near the January lows that came after a DeepSeek-driven selloff.

Its shares edged higher Friday as the stock found some support after plunging over 8% Thursday, but that still left the stock roughly 7% lower for the week and year. Analysts have largely remained bullish, pointing to Nvidia’s strong outlook on the back of growing AI demand.

Their optimism comes as investors appear uncertain about the path ahead for the recently highflying stock, shares of which have added about half their value over the past 12 months. Chinese startup DeepSeek‘s claims that its AI model could keep up with American rivals at a fraction of the cost and computing resources had raised worries demand for Nvidia’s most advanced chips could slow, but several analysts said they believe Nvidia stands to benefit from DeepSeek’s emergence and growing competition.

During Wednesday’s earnings call, CEO Jensen Huang said that demand for AI inference is accelerating as new AI models emerge, giving a shoutout to DeepSeek’s R1.

DeepSeek “has ignited global enthusiasm,” Huang said, adding that “nearly every AI developer” is applying R1 or adopting some of DeepSeek’s innovations into their own technology. Rather than diminishing the need for advanced chips, Huang said, next-generation AI will likely require significantly more computing power as applications become more sophisticated, leaving Nvidia poised for growth.

Citi and JPMorgan analysts said following the call that they were reassured by Huang’s comments around DeepSeek and the expected trajectory of computing needs. Wedbush analysts said they believe Nvidia will ultimately end up a “DeepSeek beneficiary.”

Analysts at Bank of America suggested competition from China could also push American firms to act with greater urgency on AI developments, rather than scale back spending. In recent earnings calls, several of Nvidia’s Big Tech buyers, including Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN) and Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL), did exactly that—announcing plans to raise their capital expenditures to fuel AI ambitions. 



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The Failed Super Micro Hit Job – and Why Fundamentals Always Win


This company must be a fraud.

This is a bold claim to make on national television in front of millions of people.

But this is how Andrew Left, CEO of Citron Research (a notorious short seller), described a technology company on CNBC in September 2017.

Fraud is a serious offense, and usually this sort of accusation does not get thrown around lightly. So, when folks hear that kind of serious claim on TV, they often believe it.

This is what Ubiquiti Inc. (UI) was up against when Andrew Left pointed his guns in its direction.

The high-growth networking technology company designs and sells wireless communications and enterprise networking solutions for service providers and businesses worldwide.

Left called Ubiquiti a fraud because he believed there were several “red flags,” including exaggerating the size of its user community, accounting irregularities and high executive leadership turnover. In the immediate aftermath of the news, Ubiquiti fell 8%.

And then, as the rumors spread, the stock tumbled.

This is exactly what Left wanted. You see, short-selling is a trading strategy where you borrow shares of a stock and sell them at the current market price. The idea is to buy them back later at a lower price to return to the lender, profiting from the decline in the stock’s value.

Simply put, short sellers want the stock to go down.

Firms like Citron, Hindenburg, Muddy Waters and others take short positions in companies and issue research reports that are critical of them. Now, sometimes there are merits to the claims, but a lot of times they simply exaggerate or throw around wild accusations, hoping to drive down the price.   

Here’s how Ubiquiti’s CEO, Robert Para, initially responded:

Now, the question is: Did those claims have any merit?

Despite the short-seller attack, Ubiquiti continued to post strong earnings. In the first quarter following the Citron report, the company reported revenues of $245.9 million, a 20.1% year-over-year increase. It achieved a gross profit of $111.7 million, representing 45.4% of revenues net income of $74.9 million. Earnings per share came in at $0.92.

And in the quarters following the Citron report, the company beat analyst expectations multiple times, demonstrating resilience in both revenue growth and profitability. Ubiquiti’s robust fundamentals, including expanding margins and strong cash flow, ultimately proved that the accusations lacked substance.

I’ll put it this way. I felt comfortable enough to add the stock to my Growth Investor service back in May 2021. We ended up walking away with a 90% gain in December 2021.

More importantly, Ubiquiti is still around today.

If we look back, the Citron report in 2017 was simply a blip in the grand scheme of things. 

In the chart below, the red arrow indicates the sharp drop it took when the report was released. But the stock has since recovered the losses and posted some impressive gains…

The point is the claims ultimately subsided, and the company’s fundamentals ultimately spoke for themselves.

In the end, Para had the last laugh.

But here’s the thing…

The sharp drop caused by Citron damaged the portfolios of a lot of hardworking people. I’m willing to bet that many people were scared away from this stock completely, causing them to miss out on the long-term 500%-plus gain that followed.

I have a problem with that.

These are people who were planning to retire someday. Maybe take a nice vacation with their spouse. Or pay for their daughter’s wedding.

And Left? He is currently facing both civil charges from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as well as criminal charges from the Department of Justice (DOJ).

In short, I think short sellers are scum, folks.

And I bring this up because the case with Ubiquiti shares some striking similarities to what happened to Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) last August. If you haven’t followed along, let me break it down for you in today’s Market 360. Then, I’ll review the latest developments and why I continue to believe it’s worth holding today. Plus, I’ll share where you can find strong stocks with superior fundamentals that are great buys right now.



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Baltics Ditch Russia For Europe’s Power Grid


“Today, history is made,” EU chief Ursula von der Leyen declared during a ceremony held in the Lithuanian capital, Vilnius, last month: “This is freedom, freedom from threats, freedom from blackmail.”

On Feb. 9, the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania officially disconnected from the Russian-controlled Brell power grid. The following day, they successfully connected to the European Union’s electricity network.

The synchronization process with Europe also marked a crucial moment for continental integration. The transition, in the works since 2007, was accelerated by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

“This is truly something that has been a long time coming,” notes Michael Bradshaw, professor of Global Energy at the University of Warwick. “The switch removes the Baltic states from the Soviet-era electricity grid and from exposure to Russian manipulation, giving them a greater degree of energy independence on the one hand, and closer integration into the wider European electricity grid on the other.”

 A relic of the Soviet Union, the Brell—which stands for Belarus, Russia, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania—is primarily controlled by Moscow. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania joined the EU and NATO in 2004, and have since invested heavily in infrastructure renovations, including building new mainland and undersea power lines. Still, their energy sectors remained vulnerable and reliant on Russia.

Despite managing to entirely cut energy purchases from Russia, the three countries continued to rely on the Brell grid to control frequencies and maintain a constant power supply, which can be more easily achieved in a large-scale synchronized network than in a smaller one. With a total cost of €1.6 billion ($1.67 billion), including €1.2 billion funded by the EU, Bradshaw says the project also speaks to a growing concern about “electricity security,” a term championed by the International Energy Agency as the electrification push and plans to decarbonize Europe’s energy system gather pace. “Electricity interconnection is important to balancing national grids, but as highlighted by the recent political crisis in Norway, where local electricity prices went up as the country was exporting a growing amount of power, it is also becoming a point of contention,” he argues.          



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World Coin News: Slovakia 2 euro 2025


New bimetallic circulating commemorative:

100th anniversary of the first international sports tournament in the territory of the Slovak Republic – the Ice Hockey European Championship


Slovakia 2 euro 2025 - 100th anniversary of the first international sports tournament in the territory of the Slovak Republic – the Ice Hockey European Championship




TECHNICAL DATA
External ring: copper-nickel
Center disc: nickel-brass, nickel and nickel-brass three layers
Diameter: 25.75 mm
Weight: 8.50 g
Thickness: 2.20 mm
Designer: Karol Ličko
Mintage: 1 million
Mint: Mincovňa Kremnica (Slovakia)



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13 Low-Priced High-Dividend Stocks Trading Under $10 Now


Updated on February 28th, 2025 by Bob Ciura

High dividend stocks means more income for every dollar invested. All other things equal, the higher the dividend yield, the better.

Income investors often like to find low-priced dividend stocks, as they can buy more shares than they could with higher-priced securities.

In this research report, we analyze 13 stocks trading below $10.00 per share and offering high dividend yields of 5.0% and greater.

Additionally, the free high dividend stocks list spreadsheet below has our full list of individual securities (stocks, REITs, MLPs, etc.) with with 5%+ dividend yields.

 

Keep reading to see analysis on these 13 high-yielding securities trading below $10.00 per share. The list is sorted by dividend yield, in ascending order.

Table of Contents

Low-Priced High Dividend Stock #13: Choice Properties REIT (PPRQF) – Dividend Yield of 5.6%

Choice Properties Real Estate Investment Trust invests in commercial real estate properties across Canada. The company has a high-quality real estate portfolio of over 700 properties which makes up over 60 million square feet of gross leasable area (GLA).

Choice Properties’ portfolio is made up of over 700 properties, including retail, industrial, office, multi-family, and development assets. Over 500 of Choice Properties’ investments are to their largest tenant, Canada’s largest retailer, Loblaw.

Choice Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (CHP.UN) reported a net loss of $663 million for the third quarter of 2024, compared to a net income of $435.9 million for the same period in 2023.

This decline was primarily driven by a $1.26 billion unfavorable adjustment in fair value of the Trust’s Exchangeable Units, reflecting an increase in the Trust’s unit price.

However, the Trust saw positive performance in its operating metrics, with funds from operations (FFO) per unit diluted increasing by 3.2% to $0.258.

During the quarter, the Trust achieved a strong occupancy rate of 97.7%, led by retail (97.6%) and industrial (98.1%) sectors, and recorded a 3.0% year-over-year increase in Same-Asset NOI on a cash basis.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on PPRQF (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Low-Priced High Dividend Stock #12: LXP Industrial Trust (LXP) – Dividend Yield of 6.1%

Lexington Realty Trust owns equity and debt investments in single-tenant properties and land across the United States. The trust’s portfolio is primarily industrial equity investments.

The trust grows the industrial portfolio by financing, or by acquiring new investments with long-term leases, repositioning the portfolio by recycling capital and opportunistically taking advantage of capital markets.

Additionally, the company supplies investment advisory and asset management services for investors in the single-tenant net-lease asset market.

On February 13th, 2025, Lexington reported fourth quarter 2024 results for the period ending December 31st, 2024. The trust announced adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) of $0.16 per share for the quarter, a penny short of the prior year quarter.

For Q4, the trust completed 1.0M square feet of new leases and lease extensions, which increased base and cash base rents by 66.3% and 42.6%, respectively. Lexington also invested $21 million in ongoing development projects. The trust’s stabilized industrial portfolio was 93.6% leased. At quarter end, Lexington had leverage of 5.9X net debt to adjusted EBITDA.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on LXP (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Low-Priced High Dividend Stock #11: Ford Motor Co. (F) – Dividend Yield of 6.4%

Ford Motor Company was first incorporated in 1903 and in the past 120 years, it has become one of the world’s largest automakers. It operates a large financing business as well as its core manufacturing division, which produces a popular assortment of cars, trucks, and SUVs.

Ford posted fourth quarter and full-year earnings on February 5th, 2025, and results were better than expected. Adjusted earnings-per-share came to 39 cents, which was seven cents ahead of estimates.

Revenue was up almost 5% year-over-year for the quarter to $48.2 billion, which also beat estimates by $5.37 billion. The fourth quarter was the highest revenue total the company has ever produced.

Ford Blue increased 4.2% to $27.3 billion in revenue for the fourth quarter, beating estimates of $25.9 billion. Model e revenue was down 13% year-over-year to $1.4 billion, $400 million less than expected.

Ford Pro revenue was up 5.3% to $16.2 billion, beating estimates for $15.6 billion.

For this year, Ford expects full-year adjusted EBIT of $7 to $8.5 billion, and for adjusted free cash flow of $3.5 billion to $4.5 billion, with capex of $8 to $9.5 billion.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on Ford (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Low-Priced High Dividend Stock #10: Kearny Financial Corp. (KRNY) – Dividend Yield of 6.5%

Kearny Financial Corp. is a bank holding company. Headquartered in Fairfield, New Jersey, the bank operates 43 branches, primarily in New Jersey along with a couple of locations in New York City. Over the years, Kearny has evolved from being a traditional thrift institution into a full-service community bank.

Kearny had enjoyed tremendous growth over the past decade as it executed on this strategy to enlarge and diversify the bank. However, the shift in the interest rate environment and uncertainty in the commercial real estate market has provoked significant uncertainty around Kearny’s operating outlook going forward.

Kearny reported a large loss tied to one-time expenses in 2024, and the company has been hampered by falling net interest income as well.

In the company’s Q2 2025 results, reported January 30th, 2025, Kearny reported a profit of $0.11 per share. This was up sharply from a 22 cent per share loss in the same period of the prior year, though that number reflects various one-time non-recurring charges.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on KRNY (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Low-Priced High Dividend Stock #9: Aegon Ltd. (AEG) – Dividend Yield of 6.7%

Aegon NV is a financial holding company based in the Netherlands. The company provides a wide range of financial services to clients, including insurance, pensions, and asset management.

Aegon has five core operating segments: Americas, Europe, Asia, Asset Management Holding and Other Activities. The firm’s most widely recognized brand is Transamerica, which Aegon acquired in 1999.

On February 20th, 2024, Aegon reported results for H2-2024. Operating capital grew 14% over the prior year’s period thanks to improved performance in the U.S. As Aegon expects to be hurt by lower interest rates, it provided guidance for essentially flat operating capital of €1.2 billion in 2025.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on AEG (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Low-Priced High Dividend Stock #8: Geopark Limited (GPRK) – Dividend Yield of 7.1%

GeoPark Limited (GPRK) explores and produces oil and natural gas in Colombia, Ecuador, Argentina and Brazil. It was founded in 2002, it is based in Bogota, Colombia. GeoPark is superior to other Latin American oil and gas producers in some aspects.

It has a market-leading drilling success rate of 81% and has drastically reduced its operating costs, from $19 per barrel in 2013 to $13 per barrel in 2023-2024. Approximately 90% of its production is cash flow positive even at Brent prices of $25-$30.

This means that GeoPark is a low-cost producer, which is of paramount importance in a commodity business. On the other hand, GeoPark is highly sensitive to the dramatic cycles of the prices of oil and gas. As a result, it has exhibited an extremely volatile performance record, with losses in 4 of the last 10 years.

In early November, GeoPark reported (11/6/24) financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2024. The average daily production of oil and gas decreased -4% over the prior year’s quarter, primarily due to the divestment of the Chilean business in January.

In addition, the price of oil incurred a correction. Nevertheless, thanks to lower operating costs and lower capital expenses, earnings-per-share rose 9%, from $0.44 to $0.48.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on GPRK (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Low-Priced High Dividend Stock #7: Clipper Realty (CLPR) – Dividend Yield of 8.1%

Clipper Realty is a Real Estate Investment Trust, or REIT, that was founded by the merger of four pre-existing real estate companies. The founders retain about 2/3 of the ownership and votes today, as they have never sold a share.

Clipper Properties owns commercial (primarily multifamily and office with a small sliver of retail) real estate across New York City.

Clipper Realty Inc. (CLPR) reported strong third-quarter 2024 results, with record revenues of $37.6 million, a 6.8% increase from the same period in 2023, driven largely by growth in residential leasing and higher occupancy.

Net operating income (NOI) reached a record $21.8 million, while adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) hit $7.8 million, or $0.18 per share, up from $6.3 million, or $0.15 per share, a year earlier.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on CLPR (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Low-Priced High Dividend Stock #6: Itau Unibanco Holding SA (ITUB) – Dividend Yield of 9.1%

Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. is headquartered in Sao Paulo, Brazil. The bank has operations across South America and other places like the United States, Portugal, Switzerland, China, Japan, etc.

On November 5th, 2024, Itaú Unibanco reported third-quarter results for 2024. The company reported recurring managerial result for the third quarter of 2024 was approximately $2.1 billion USD, reflecting a 6.0% increase from the previous quarter.

The recurring managerial return on equity stood at 22.7% on a consolidated basis and 23.8% for operations in Brazil. Total assets grew by 2.6%, surpassing $590 billion USD, while the loan portfolio increased by 1.9% globally and 2.1% in Brazil for the quarter, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.9% and 10.0%, respectively.

Key drivers included personal, vehicle, and mortgage loans, which saw quarterly growth rates of 3.1%, 3.0%, and 3.9%, respectively.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on ITUB (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Low-Priced High Dividend Stock #5: SFL Corporation (SFL) – Dividend Yield of 11.8%

Ship Finance International Ltd is an international shipping and chartering company. The company’s primary businesses include transporting crude oil and oil products, dry bulk and containerized cargos, as well as offshore drilling activities.

It owns 18 oil tankers, 15 dry bulk carriers, 38 container vessels, 7 car carriers, and 2 ultra-deep water drilling units. Ship Finance International operates primarily in Bermuda, Cyprus, Malta, Liberia, Norway, the United Kingdom, and the Marshall Islands.

On February 12th, 2025, SFL reported its Q4 and full-year results for the period ending December 31st, 2024. SFL achieved total revenues of $229.1 million during the quarter, down 10.3% compared to the previous quarter.

This figure is lower than the cash received as it excludes approximately $9.9 million of charter hire, which is not identified as operating revenues pursuant to U.S. GAAP.

Net income came in at $20.2 million, or $0.15 per share, compared to $44.5 million, or $0.34 per share, in the previous quarter. No shares were repurchased during the quarter. About $90 million remains under SFL’s share repurchase plan.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on SFL (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Low-Priced High Dividend Stock #4: Prospect Capital (PSEC) – Dividend Yield of 12.5%

Prospect Capital Corporation is a Business Development Company, or BDC, that provides private debt and private equity to middlemarket companies in the U.S.

The company focuses on direct lending to owneroperated companies, as well as sponsorbacked transactions. Prospect invests primarily in first and second lien senior loans and mezzanine debt, with occasional equity investments. 

Source: Investor Presentation

Prospect posted second quarter earnings on February 10th, 2025, and results were somewhat weak. Net investment income per-share acme to 20 cents, while total investment income fell from $211 million to $185 million year-over-year.

NII per-share fell from 21 cents in Q1, and 24 cents from the year-ago period. Total interest income was $169 million for the quarter, down from $185 million in the prior quarter, and $195 million a year ago. It also missed estimates by about $2 million.

Total originations were $135 million, down sharply from $291 million in the previous quarter. Total payments and sales were $383 million, up from $282 million in Q1. That implies net originations at -$248 million versus a net addition of just over $8 million in Q1. Q3-to-date originations so far are a net of +$91 million.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on PSEC (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Low-Priced High Dividend Stock #3: Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN) – Dividend Yield of 13.7%

Horizon Technology Finance Corp. is a BDC that provides venture capital to small and mediumsized companies in the technology, life sciences, and healthcareIT sectors.

The company has generated attractive riskadjusted returns through directly originated senior secured loans and additional capital appreciation through warrants.

Source: Investor Presentation

On October 29th, 2024, Horizon released its Q3 results for the period ending September 30th, 2024. For the quarter, total investment income fell 15.5% year-over-year to $24.6.7 million, primarily due to lower interest income on investments from the debt investment portfolio.

More specifically, the company’s dollar-weighted annualized yield on average debt investments in Q3 of 2024 and Q3 of 2023 was 15.9% and 17.1%, respectively.

Net investment income per share (IIS) fell to $0.32, down from $0.53 compared to Q3-2023. Net asset value (NAV) per share landed at $9.06, down from $9.12 sequentially.

After paying its monthly distributions, Horizon’s undistributed spillover income as of June 30th, 2024 was $1.27 per share, indicating a considerable cash cushion.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on HRZN (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Low-Priced High Dividend Stock #2: Ellington Credit Co. (EARN) – Dividend Yield of 14.7%

Ellington Credit Co. acquires, invests in, and manages residential mortgage and real estate related assets. Ellington focuses primarily on residential mortgage-backed securities, specifically those backed by a U.S. Government agency or U.S. governmentsponsored enterprise.

Agency MBS are created and backed by government agencies or enterprises, while non-agency MBS are not guaranteed by the government.

On November 12th, 2024, Ellington Residential reported its third quarter results for the period ending September 30th, 2024. The company generated net income of $5.4 million, or $0.21 per share.

Ellington achieved adjusted distributable earnings of $7.2 million in the quarter, leading to adjusted earnings of $0.28 per share, which covered the dividend paid in the period.

Net interest margin was 5.22% overall. At quarter end, Ellington had $25.7 million of cash and cash equivalents, and $96 million of other unencumbered assets.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on EARN (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Low-Priced High Dividend Stock #1: Orchid Island Capital (ORC) – Dividend Yield of 16.4%

Orchid Island Capital is a mortgage REIT that is externally managed by Bimini Advisors LLC and focuses on investing in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), including pass-through and structured agency RMBSs.

These financial instruments generate cash flow based on residential loans such as mortgages, subprime, and home-equity loans.

Source: Investor Presentation

The company reported a net income of $17.3 million, or $0.24 per common share, significantly improving from a net loss of $80.1 million in the same quarter last year. This net income comprised $0.3 million in net interest income and $4.3 million in total expenses.

Additionally, Orchid recorded net realized and unrealized gains of $21.2 million, or $0.29 per common share, from Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities (RMBS) and derivative instruments, including interest rate swaps.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (ORC) (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Final Thoughts

When a stock offers an exceptionally high dividend yield, it usually signals that its dividend is at the risk of being cut. This rule certainly applies to most of the above stocks.

Nevertheless, some of the above stocks are highly attractive now thanks to their cheap valuation and still-high yield even after a potential reasonable dividend cut.

If you are interested in finding high-quality dividend growth stocks and/or other high-yield securities and income securities, the following Sure Dividend resources will be useful:

High-Yield Individual Security Research

Other Sure Dividend Resources

Thanks for reading this article. Please send any feedback, corrections, or questions to [email protected].





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An Expert Method to Overcome a Turbulent Stock Market


Editor’s note: “An Expert Method to Overcome a Turbulent Stock Market” was previously published in January 2025 with the title, “How to Find Success Despite Wild Stock Market Volatility.” It has since been updated to include the most relevant information available.

When it comes to the stock market, it can be a bit like a hurricane at sea: powerful, unpredictable, and capable of turning calm waters into chaos in an instant.

We’ve been enduring our fair share of market chaos lately, with the S&P 500 seemingly up one week and down the next. Investors are practically begging for monotony. But wilder price action like this may be our new normal…

You see; historically speaking, the stock market averages about one bear market every five or six years. But in the past six years, we’ve had not one… not two… but three different bear markets

There was the flash crash of late 2018, which saw stocks briefly fall into a bear market right before the holidays. There was also the COVID crash of 2020, wherein stocks plunged in the fastest market crash in history. And then there was the inflation crash of 2022, when tech stocks were obliterated by sky-high interest rates. 

Three unforeseen bear markets in the past six years – that is wild. 

But, of course, on the other hand, we’ve also seen some huge stock market successes, too.

Navigating Both Flash Crashes & Fast Recoveries

On average, the stock market rises about 10% per year. But in 2024, stocks climbed 23%. They rose around 27% in 2021. And in 2019, stocks rallied about 29%.

In other words, over the past six years, the S&P 500 has achieved three different years with nearly 30% returns. As a matter of fact, of the stock market’s 10 best years since 1950, three have occurred since 2018. 

Three different bear markets and three of the best years ever for stocks – all within the past six years.

So, if the stock market has felt wild to you lately, that’s because it has been. 

But this wildness could be the new norm for Wall Street going forward. 

We can thank technology for that – at least, that’s my opinion. 

Why? Because algorithms run the market now. 

These days, algorithmic trading accounts for approximately 60- to 75% of total trading volume in the U.S. stock market. That means most trades are automatic, executed by bots adhering to pre-set parameters. 

And, unlike humans, robots don’t really ask why. They just do what they are programmed to. 

So, when something bad happens, all the algorithmic-driven systems rush toward an exit. And when something good happens, they race to get involved. That’s why, in my view, algorithmic trading creates crowding. 

As a result, we get wild swings in the market – both up and down. The algorithms drive momentum one way or the other, and the market follows. 

We get flash crashes and fast recoveries; big bear markets and massive bull runs; major meltdowns and momentous melt-ups. 

We get stock market volatility.



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February ends gripped by risk aversion – United States


Written by the Market Insights Team

February wrap-up with unresolved tariff issues

Kevin Ford –FX & Macro Strategist

February is drawing to a close, and after five consecutive months of declines, the USD/CAD’s losing streak has eased near the 1.44 mark amidst heightened volatility and unresolved tariff issues. The Loonie has edged upward from its weekly low of 1.4182—resting just above the 20-week SMA—to a three-week high of 1.4453—a 271-pip increase. While no definitive trade policy decisions have been made, tariff risk premia keep the Loonie above 1.44. Contradictory messages about tariff plans for Canada and Mexico have heightened volatility, particularly in the USD/CAD, where implied volatility has surged with March 4th just around the corner. A last-minute extension to April 2nd isn’t ruled out, but volatility is expected until formal confirmation.

Volatility surged yesterday as equity markets grappled with escalating risk aversion. While Nvidia’s strong quarterly results initially offered a lift to markets, the optimism was short-lived. Risk aversion soon took the upper hand, driving the VIX index back above the critical 20 threshold. 

Amid this month’s chaos and volatility, one clear winner has emerged: the Canadian Liberals. PM Trudeau’s decision to prorogue parliament has benefited his party, which now leads the Conservatives in polls for the first time in years. The Liberals have gained momentum by taking a strong stance against Trump’s tariff threats and increasing investment in citizen-friendly infrastructure projects. Mark Carney has overtaken Chrystia Freeland as the most likely successor, with a final decision expected on March 9th. As we enter March, Canadian politics will unfold against a backdrop of continued uncertainty and volatility.

Today, all eyes are on the US PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. Any upside surprises could further unsettle market sentiment.

The key resistance at 1.445 has proven strong for the Loonie. 1.447 is the next level to monitor. Protection against a break above 1.45 adds pressure on the Loonie. The 60-day SMA at 1.433 serves as critical support if tariffs are delayed another month.

Next week’s packed macroeconomic calendar will provide a clearer picture of the US economy, with payrolls (Friday) and ISM manufacturing (Monday) as key data points. For Canada, manufacturing (Monday) and the unemployment rate (Friday) will take center stage.

Chart: Tariff-premia sends the Loonie trading back above 1.44

Dollar balancing tariffs, weaker growth

Boris Kovacevic – Global Macro Strategist

The trade and geopolitical news flows once again overshadowed what seemed to be a pretty important day for US macro developments. Durable goods, home sales, jobless claims and GDP data sent mixed signals about the state of the worlds largest economy. GDP grew by an annualized 2.3%, while unemployment claims rose to a 2-month high and tumbled for a second consecutive month. Overall, the data continues to point to weaker economic momentum ahead and the dollar would have depreciated against this backdrop would it not have been for the tariff news.

Markets once again reacted to fresh tariff announcements made by the US President. Donald Trump confirmed that the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico will go into effect, while also hinting at potential new levies on China as soon as March. This bolstered the dollar against the Canadian Dollar and Mexican peso. However, the strengthening of the Greenback broadened out to most major currencies as well.

Beyond trade, Trump’s refusal to commit to a security backstop in Ukraine added another layer of geopolitical uncertainty. Meeting with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, he reiterated that the focus should first be on securing a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, rather than discussing long-term military commitments.

Still, conviction around a sustained dollar rally is fading, as tariff fatigue and growth concerns begin to weigh on sentiment. Traders remain cautious despite the elevated trade uncertainty and lack of policy clarity. For now, FX markets remain driven by trade headlines, with the dollar benefiting from renewed tariff bets—but the long-term picture remains far from clear.

The US dollar index will likely end the week higher, a feat the dollar has only achieved once in the last seven weeks. The last hurdle to overcome is the US PCE report due today. The core figure could slow on a month-on-month basis. However, personal spending is expected to remain robust.

Chart: US macro data continues to deteriorate

Euro back on the defence

Boris Kovacevic – Global Macro Strategist

Fresh trade tensions are adding pressure to the euro, as President Trump confirmed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and hinted at new levies on China. While the EU was not directly targeted, the risk of further escalation weighs on sentiment, especially with Trump’s criticism of European trade policies and VAT systems still lingering.

While the dollar initially rallied on the tariff news, conviction around sustained USD strength is fading, as the economic drag from higher trade barriers could outweigh short-term inflationary effects. For the euro, the uncertainty keeps upside limited, with EUR/USD hovering under $1.0400 as traders assess whether tariffs will remain a US-focused issue or expand further.

On the other hand, the ECB remains confident that policy is still restrictive, but the debate over future rate cuts is intensifying as per the meeting minutes released yesterday. A 25bp cut next week to 2.5% is expected, yet officials are divided. Some have shown worries about sticky services inflation and trade risks, while others fear weak growth and missing the 2% inflation target. The neutral rate remains a wildcard, with policymakers questioning its usefulness as a policy guide. Meanwhile, disinflation is on track, but wage growth and energy risks call for caution.

Chart: Markets unsure of Trump's intention with Ukraine.

Risk sensitive or safe haven sterling?

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

As we explained in yesterday’s report, the pound’s high yielding status is a double-edged sword in that when the market mood is upbeat, sterling tends to appreciate, but in deteriorating global risk conditions, the pound becomes more vulnerable. Hence, the latest bout of tariff angst has sent GBP/USD tumbling from $1.27 to $1.2570 in 24 hours. GBP/USD has erased its weekly gains and more, whilst several key moving averages continue to act as hurdles to the upside.

Apart from weakening against the US dollar though, some analysts think the FX market is viewing the pound as a tariff safe-haven of sorts, driven by confidence that the UK is less economically vulnerable to tariffs compared to major exporters like the EU. This is evidenced by sterling appreciating against all G10 peers this week bar the US dollar and Swiss franc. Meanwhile, if GBP/EUR closes the week above €1.21, it will be the highest weekly closing price in almost three years. If we look at sterling more broadly though, it appreciated against less than 50% of its global peers yesterday, which contradicts this sterling safe haven theory. Moreover, sterling’s vulnerability to global risk aversion due to its reliance on foreign capital inflows would likely limit any haven demand in our view.

Nevertheless, the meeting between US President Donald Trump and UK Prime Minster Keir Starmer appeared constructive, with hopes of a trade deal boosting the odds of the UK avoiding tariffs. The UK is one of the only countries in the world to have a neutral trade relationship with the US in goods, so it’s hard to see how/why Trump would have imposed them anyway. But even if the UK does evade tariffs, a slowdown in global trade would still hurt the UK economy, which would weigh on the pro-cyclical pound.

Chart: Is sterling something of tariff-haven in G10?

Risk aversion drives stocks and yields lower

Table: 7-day currency trends and trading ranges

7-day currency trends and trading ranges

Key global risk events

Calendar: February 24-28

Key global risk events calendar

All times are in ET

Have a question? [email protected]

*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.



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5 Things to Know Before the Stock Market Opens



Stock futures edged higher Friday morning, rising after yesterday’s selloff driven by concerns over tech-sector strength and tariff costs; inflation is expected to decline slightly with today’s release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index; Dell (DELL) and HP (HPQ) shares were falling as tech stocks remained under pressure after AI stalwart Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings weighed on markets; President Donald Trump said tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico would proceed; bitcoin (BTCUSD) dropped below $80,000 to wipe out most of the gains registered since Trump’s election in November.

Here’s what investors need to know today.

1. Stock Futures Point Higher After Tech, Tariff Selloff

Stock futures pointed higher as investors looked to inflation data following yesterday’s selloff on tariff and tech worries. Futures trading associated with the S&P 500 was higher by around 0.3% after the benchmark index shed 1.6% in Thursday trading. Those associated with the Nasdaq were higher by a similar amount after it lost 2.8% yesterday, while Dow Jones Industrial Average-linked futures also rose after dipping yesterday. Despite the early uptick, major market indexes were poised to move lower for the month of February. Yields on the 10-year Treasury note were around 4.285%, while oil futures were lower by more than 1%. Gold futures also fell.

2. Inflation Expected to Decline in January PCE Report

Market participants will be closely following the 8:30 a.m. EST planned release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report for January. The data is expected to show inflation came in at an annual rate of 2.5% for the month, according to a survey of economists by The Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires. That’s a tick lower than December’s rate but still above the Federal Reserve’s inflation target. The Fed cited worries over continued elevated inflation when it decided last month to not lower interest rates again.

Here’s more from Investopedia on what to expect from the report.

3. Tech Stocks Sinking As Nvidia Leads Sell Off

Following Nvidia’s plunge in trading yesterday, several technology stocks were lower in premarket trading despite some computer sellers beating quarterly earnings estimates. Shares of Dell were lower by about 4% after its earnings report showed that the PC maker had strong quarterly income on the growing demand for artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, but its 7% revenue improvement was lower than analysts expected. HP shares were down about 3% after it beat expectations this quarter, but its earnings outlook was lower than analysts’ forecasts. Nvidia shares were little changed in early trading after plunging by more than 8% yesterday.

4. Trump Sets Date for Canada, Mexico Tariffs as Economic Adviser Sees ‘Reindustrialization’ Strategy

Trump’s announcement that a 25% tariff on products made in Canada and Mexico will go into effect on March 4 weighed on markets yesterday. Oil products from Canada will be taxed at 10%. On top of that, Trump said he would put an additional 10% tariff on products from China, adding to a 10% tariff he imposed in early February. Stephen Miran, Trump’s nominee to chair the White House’s Council of Economic Advisors, said in a Senate hearing that the U.S. would “reindustrialize” by taxing foreign imports, reducing regulations for businesses and developing the defense industry.

5. Bitcoin Falls Below $80,000 to Lowest Levels Since November

Bitcoin’s (BTCUSD) price fell below $80,000 for the first time since early November, wiping out nearly all the gains that followed Trump’s reelection. The cryptocurrency’s fall coincided with the broader market selloff as investors weigh economic uncertainty. The selloff is hurting crypto-related stocks as well: Bitcoin buyer Strategy (MSTR), the company formerly called MicroStrategy, was down about 3% in premarket trading after registering a nearly 9% fall in the prior session. Shares of crypto brokerage Coinbase Global (COIN) and bitcoin mining firms Mara Holdings (MARA) and Riot Platforms (RIOT) were recently down around 3%.



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