Written by Steven Dooley, Head of Market Insights, and Shier Lee Lim, Lead FX and Macro Strategist
Aussie climbs from lows
The Australian dollar and other economically-sensitive currencies were higher overnight after US president Donald Trump offered some relief on tariffs.
Trump said he planned to announce reciprocal tariffs next week but also suggested the potential for some exemptions saying “I may give a lot of countries breaks.”
Financial markets were higher on the news with the S&P 500 up 1.4% and the Nasdaq up 2.1%.
In FX, the reactions were more muted, with the AUD/USD up 0.2% as it climbed from two-week lows. Looking forward tonight’s Australian Federal Budget will be in focus.
USD/SGD at three-week highs
At 16:00 AEDT on Wednesday, Singapore industrial production is due.
With electronics output growth staying in the double digits amidst the global tech upcycle, we anticipate industrial production growth to ease to 8.5% year-over-year in February from 9.1% in January.
A further relaxation of the S$NEER policy band may result from a further increase in global tariffs, which would also have a negative effect on H2 growth.
However, this is not being factored into rates or the S$NEER by the markets.
Looking at USD/SGD, trending higher, now above the average for last six months.
USD buyers may take advantage of current spot of 1.3350-1.3400, where USD/SGD is at its 5-month low.
Japanese PMI enters a contraction
Japan’s au Jibun Bank flash composite PMI for March was 48.5, marking the lowest level in three years and a decline from 52 the previous month.
Services at 49.5 and Manufacturing PMI at 48.3 were both lower than previous readings of 53.7 and 49, respectively.
USD/JPY, currently 149.71 as of this writing, slowly edges up toward its 50-day and 200-day strong MA resistance levels, on the daily chart, where USD buyers may look to take advantage.
The AUD/JPY was also stronger as it neared one-month highs.
Similarly for SGD/JPY, the next key resistance levels of 112.50 at 50-day and 113.11 at 200-day moving averages are key to watch.
USD/CNY at highs
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 24 – 29 March
All times AEDT
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
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