Archives 2025

The past decade has seen one of the strongest bull markets in history, with the S&P 500 index posting a 10-year return of 182.9% through February 2025. Yet a select club of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) no one wants to join managed to defy a broadly rising market and destroy billions in shareholder value.

The biggest losers include specialized funds that retail investors should mostly avoid, but some belong to categories that many assume to be quite stable. Below, we take you through the list and the fund companies behind them whose reputations have taken a hit.

The Funds That Lost Billions for Shareholders

According to a March 2025 Morningstar report, 15 funds posted the worst performance over the last decade through a toxic combination of poor performance and poorly timed investor flows (people putting in money just as the market was heading in the wrong direction).

Posting the biggest losses was the ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (SQQQ), a leveraged inverse ETF that aims to deliver negative three times the daily performance of the Nasdaq-100. When the Nasdaq 100 goes up, SQQQ goes down by three times as much, so it shouldn’t be surprising that in a decade that the total 10-year return, according to TradingView, for the Nasdaq-100 stood at 443.2% (for an average annual rate of 18.4%), SQQQ lost investors more than $10 billion.

Other leveraged index funds, like ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (UVXY), also suffered significant losses.

Thematic funds with concentrated bets also featured prominently in Morningstar’s study. ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK)—Cathie Wood’s flagship, actively managed ETF for “disruptive innovation”—and ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG), which focuses on biotech, together lost more than $12 billion for investors. These funds attracted massive inflows after strong performance in 2020, only to produce steep declines afterward.

Geographic concentration added another layer of risk. KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) and iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) took losses from country-specific political and economic problems.

Perhaps most surprising are the traditional fixed-income funds on the list. They include Templeton Global Bond (TGBAX) and Fidelity Series Long-Term Treasury Bond Index (FTLTX), demonstrating that even more mainstream bond investments can erase substantial value should interest rates shift dramatically.

Warning Signs for Investors

These red flags characterized the decade’s biggest value destroyers:

• Leverage and inverse exposure: Funds with “Ultra,” “UltraPro,” “3X,” or “Bear” in their names are designed for sophisticated short-term traders, not long-term investors. These products reset daily and experience mathematical decay over time, making them unsuitable for buy-and-hold strategies.
• Concentrated thematic bets: Funds focused on narrow sectors or themes might capture investor attention, but often come with high volatility that can burn investors chasing performance who enter at the wrong time. These specialized funds are generally suitable only as minor positions for investors who fully understand the risks.
• Excessive volatility: The worst-performing funds experienced extreme swings, with some dropping more than 60% in a single year. These funds are designed for professional traders and institutional investors who use them for hedging or as part of complex trading strategies.

The Bottom Line

The biggest value destroyers in the fund industry provide a valuable case study in how not to invest. Investors this past decade have been far better served by plain-vanilla categories like passive index funds and by sticking with the industry’s biggest and most established fund managers.

Editor’s Note: The U.S. stock market and the InvestorPlace offices, including Customer
Service, will be offline, Friday, April 18, for Good Friday. Our regular hours
will resume on Monday, April 21, at 9 a.m. Eastern time.

Today, I want to take a little break from all the talk about tariffs and market volatility. Instead, I want to share a two-part series from Senior Market Analyst Brian Hunt that I think you’ll find incredibly valuable. The second part of this series will be available in your next Smart Money on Saturday.

Drawing on the upcoming Easter holiday, Hunt will explain how picking stocks can be like an Easter egg hunt… and how if you want to make big returns, you need to make sure you are in the right one. I’ll let Brian explain it from here…

In the spring of 2000, a man named Reed Hastings traveled to Dallas with a big business idea.

Hastings approached the management of movie rental giant Blockbuster with a proposal. He wanted Blockbuster to buy his small business for $50 million.

At the time, Hastings’ company – called Netflix – had a promising business model. It allowed people to rent movies through the mail. Netflix was also small and struggling to turn a profit.

Hastings believed a Blockbuster purchase of Netflix would be a win-win deal for both parties. Blockbuster’s managers did not. They didn’t think Netflix’s business model made sense for them. A Netflix executive later said that Blockbuster essentially laughed Hastings out of the room.

You probably know the rest of the story.

Netflix secured investment from other sources and built a hugely popular mail-order DVD rental business.

Around 2007, it made a brilliant move and began transitioning into America’s No. 1 movie and television streaming service. This innovation crushed traditional brick-and-mortar rental companies like Blockbuster.

In 2002, Netflix had less than 3 million subscribers. By 2022, it had reached 222 million subscribers and climbed to a market valuation of $129 billion.

Blockbuster’s market valuation in 2018?

Zip.

It went bankrupt a long time ago… and its “pass” on Netflix is widely regarded as one of the worst decisions in modern corporate history.

To give you an idea of how an investor would have done with an early Netflix stake, consider that Netflix stock fell to a split-adjusted low of $0.35 per share in 2002.

Assume you did not buy the bottom, but instead invested $5,000 at $0.50 per share, picking up 10,000 shares of Netflix.

In 2022, that $5,000 investment would have been worth $2.87 million… a 574-fold return.

Netflix’s story is one of my favorite examples of one of the most powerful concepts in the world of finance and investing.

The concept?

If you want to make giant returns in stocks, you must be in the right Easter egg hunt.

Below, I explain why…

How to Find Stocks That Can Return 100-Fold Hide

On Wall Street, companies are often grouped and labeled according to their size.

Investors typically place a company in one of three size categories: large-caps, mid-caps, and small-caps.

“Cap” is short for “market capitalization.” This is the term used to describe the value of a public company. To figure out a company’s market cap, all you have to do is multiply the total number of shares the company has in the market times the market price of a single share.

The group names are common sense. Large-caps are large. Small-caps are small. Mid-caps are in between.

For example, the popular software company Microsoft is a large-cap. In November 2022, its market cap was around $1.79 trillion.

Or, take iPhone maker Apple. It’s also a large-cap. In November 2022, its market cap was around $2.4 trillion .

Mid-caps are smaller than large-caps. Typically, investors consider companies with market caps in between $2 billion and $10 billion to be mid-caps.

The difference between a large-cap and a mid-cap can be huge. A mid-cap company worth $5 billion is less than 0.2% of the size of giant Microsoft.

Finally, we have small-caps.

These are companies with market caps under $2 billion.

While the difference between a mid-cap and a large-cap can be huge, the difference between a small-cap and a large-cap can be incredible.

For example, take a small-cap with a market value of $500 million.

This is just 10% of a mid-cap with a market value of $5 billon… which means it is less than one tenth of one percent the size of a large-cap like Microsoft.

Large-caps can be good investments. They are typically stable, established, profitable companies. They often pay dividends. Large-caps can be great investments for conservative investors.

But if you’re interested in making 10, 20, or even 50 times your money (or 574 times your money like with Netflix) in a single investment, you’d be smart to look at small-cap stocks.

Small-cap companies have much greater potential to produce giant returns for their shareholders in a short time than any other kind of company.

The reason is simple…

It’s much, much easier for a young, $500 million small-cap to grow 10-fold than it is for a mature $500-billion giant to grow 10-fold.

That’s just basic math.

If your daughter sold 10 boxes of Girl Scout Cookies around the neighborhood on her own, you could probably help grow her results 10-times (selling 100 boxes) by driving her around, putting a little pressure on your friends, neighbors, and coworkers to buy some boxes.

But what if your daughter was a natural saleswoman and had sold 100 boxes on her own?

To enjoy 10-times growth under that scenario, she’d have to sell 1,000 boxes. Not so easy anymore. That’s the mathematical challenge behind enjoying giant growth when a company is already doing giant sales.

Or, think about these situations…

• When a small $300 million market-cap beverage company creates a hit product that generates an additional $1 billion in sales, it’s a huge deal that can make the company’s stock rise by hundreds or thousands of percent.

However, if beverage giant Coca-Cola creates a way to generate an additional $1 billion in sales, it barely registers on its massive income statement.

• When a small $200 million restaurant company with 40 locations expands to 200 more locations, its market value can soar. But if mega-chain Starbucks adds 200 new locations to its already massive 14,000+ locations, it’s a blip on the company’s balance sheet.
• When a small $600 million software company creates an amazing new way to collect, manage, and analyze healthcare data, financial data, or marketing data, it can increase revenue by over $1 billion… and its stock can soar 10-fold.

However, if giant Microsoft adds $1 billion to its $100 billion+ annual revenue, it’s a drop in the bucket that won’t even make the news.

Now, all this DOES NOT mean a large company is automatically a bad investment. It just means that it’s not an ideal investment for someone looking to make big returns in a relatively short period of time.

Remember, a $500 million small-cap is just one-tenth of one percent of a $500 billion large-cap.

That’s why a search for stocks with huge growth potential should start in the small-cap stock world.

This is where companies with the potential to grow 10, 20, 50… even 574 times larger live and hide out.

But it gets even better for small-cap investors.

There’s another tremendous benefit they enjoy that large-cap investors do not.

I believe this benefit is best explained with the story of an Easter egg hunt, which I will explain in the second part of this series. Stay tuned for that in Saturday’s Smart Money.

Regards,

Brian Hunt

InvestorPlace Senior Market Analyst

P.S. Eric Fry, here.

As you may know, I’ve been following the AI megatrend for a long time now.

That’s why I was intrigued when I learned that our corporate partners at TradeSmith released an AI algorithm that can forecast prices one month into the future.

Imagine having access to the same kind of AI-powered predictive capabilities previously available only to elite Wall Street firms. I can’t think of a more valuable tool to have in a chaotic market like this…

That’s why TradeSmith CEO Keith Kaplan hosted The AI Predictive Power Event earlier this week – so that regular investors can profit during the chaos… instead of fearing it.

If you didn’t get a chance to attend, click here to start watching the replay now.

The states with the cheapest 30-year mortgage refinance rates Wednesday were California, Florida, New York, Texas, Colorado, Connecticut, Tennessee, and Washington. The eight states registered averages between 6.89% and 7.06%.

Meanwhile, the states with the highest Wednesday refinance rates were Alaska, West Virginia, South Dakota, Kentucky, North Dakota, Missouri, and Wyoming. The range of 30-year refi averages for these states was 7.17% to 7.21%.

Mortgage refinance rates vary by the state where they originate. Different lenders operate in different regions, and rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average loan size, and regulations. Lenders also have varying risk management strategies that influence the rates they offer.

Since rates vary widely across lenders, it’s always smart to shop around for your best mortgage option and compare rates regularly, no matter the type of home loan you seek.

National Mortgage Refinance Rate Averages

Rates for 30-year refinance mortgages have dropped 22 basis points over the last three days to a 7.09% national average—reversing course after surging 40 basis points last week. Friday’s 7.31% reading was the highest average for 30-year refi rates since July 2024.

Last month, in contrast, 30-year refi rates sank to 6.71%, their cheapest average of 2025. And back in September, 30-year rates plunged to a two-year low of 6.01%.

National Averages of Lenders’ Best Mortgage Rates
Loan Type	Refinance Rate Average
30-Year Fixed	7.09%
FHA 30-Year Fixed	6.62%
15-Year Fixed	5.98%
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed	7.16%
5/6 ARM	7.15%
Provided via the Zillow Mortgage API

Calculate monthly payments for different loan scenarios with our Mortgage Calculator.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as:

• The level and direction of the bond market, especially 10-year Treasury yields
• The Federal Reserve’s current monetary policy, especially as it relates to bond buying and funding government-backed mortgages
• Competition between mortgage lenders and across loan types

Because any number of these can cause fluctuations simultaneously, it’s generally difficult to attribute any change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of 2021. In particular, the Federal Reserve had been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic’s economic pressures. This bond-buying policy is a major influencer of mortgage rates.

But starting in November 2021, the Fed began tapering its bond purchases downward, making sizable monthly reductions until reaching net zero in March 2022.

Between that time and July 2023, the Fed aggressively raised the federal funds rate to fight decades-high inflation. While the fed funds rate can influence mortgage rates, it doesn’t directly do so. In fact, the fed funds rate and mortgage rates can move in opposite directions.

But given the historic speed and magnitude of the Fed’s 2022 and 2023 rate increases—raising the benchmark rate 5.25 percentage points over 16 months—even the indirect influence of the fed funds rate has resulted in a dramatic upward impact on mortgage rates over the last two years.

The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at its peak level for almost 14 months, beginning in July 2023. But in September, the central bank announced a first rate cut of 0.50 percentage points, and then followed that with quarter-point reductions on November and December.

For its first meeting of the new year, however, the Fed opted to hold rates steady—and it’s possible the central bank may not make another rate cut for months. With a total of eight rate-setting meetings scheduled per year, that means we could see multiple rate-hold announcements in 2025.

How We Track Mortgage Rates

The national and state averages cited above are provided as is via the Zillow Mortgage API, assuming a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 80% (i.e., a down payment of at least 20%) and an applicant credit score in the 680–739 range. The resulting rates represent what borrowers should expect when receiving quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates. © Zillow, Inc., 2025. Use is subject to the Zillow Terms of Use.

The worlds of AI and blockchain are collapsing into one frame. Pretty soon, any blockchain project not using AI will seem as anachronistic as a horse and carriage pulling up at the starting line alongside a row of sleek F1 cars. OK, perhaps that’s a bit extreme – but you get the picture. AI-driven web3 projects are all the rage at the moment, with Bitwise suggesting the intersection could add a jaw-dropping $20 trillion to global GDP by 2030. Not exactly chump change.

It’s not hard to appreciate the benefits of combining blockchain and AI: the data-crunching capacity of the latter pairs incredibly well with blockchain’s immutability, transparency, and security. From automating trades to securing smart contracts, artificial intelligence has become the ultimate wingman for blockchain innovation. 

Here are five projects wielding AI to solve real-world DeFi and blockchain problems in 2025.

0G Labs: A L1 Chain for Autonomous Agents 

0G Labs is the world’s first decentralized AI operating system, and with the ‘agentic economy’ the dominant narrative in crypto-AI, it could become the iOS of the industry. With over $400 million in funding so far – including $30 million from a recent node sale – the Layer-1 has the capital to support its ambition; it also has the tech, with the network said to boast a blistering 50 GB/second data throughput, 50,000x faster and 100x cheaper than competitors. Its 0G Hub, meanwhile, offers a one-stop platform for dApps, analytics, and no-code AI agent creation, and a DeFi-focused AI service market is set to launch later this year. 

By enabling on-chain agents to operate at scale, this San Francisco-based project is setting the scene for an exciting new era of DeFi automation.

Arcium: Blockchain Audit Trails for AI Models

Arcium is the encrypted supercomputer the web3 world didn’t know it needed. Essentially, the project delivers a trustless framework to compute over fully encrypted data, something of utmost importance given AI models are typically trained on sensitive datasets – including those containing proprietary info. By putting AI computation audit trails on-chain, Arcium ensures the verifiability and trust of AI/ML models, while satisfying organizations that their sensitive data is never exposed. 

Arcium’s recent partnership with the Darklake DEX will see the pair build a full-stack encrypted execution stack on Solana, while its public testnet rollout is set to kick off April 30.

Octane: AI-Powered Defi Threat Detection

Octane is an AI-powered cybersecurity outfit that puts machine learning to work detecting and fixing smart contract vulnerabilities before hackers can pounce. Given the steep cost of these hacks – for individual projects and, reputationally, for the industry as a whole – Octane’s AI-driven threat detection and one-click bug fixes are music to the ears of builders and end users.

“Flawed blockchain code enables billions in theft across crypto… Octane’s AI continuously scans codebases, empowering developers with proactive threat detection and one-click fixes throughout the entire development lifecycle.” — CEO Giovanni Vignone.

By beefing up blockchain security – particularly in terms of smart contracts – Octane could help the defi industry shed its lawless Wild West image.

Glider: A New Age of Permissionless Trading 

Crypto trading is hard, but it doesn’t have to be; that’s the basic premise of Glider, an AI-driven platform for building, testing, and executing non-custodial strategies across the cryptosphere. Set to launch later this year after raising $4 million in an Andreessen Horowitz-led round, Glider deploys AI for activities like automated rebalancing, fund control, and portfolio adjustments across multiple networks. As the website puts it, “Managing your crypto portfolio shouldn’t feel complex.”

For DeFi’s movers and shakers, Glider promises less grunt work (who wants to guzzle coffee and gaze at trading screens all day?) and more gains, with strategies optimized in real time without the need for manual intervention. 

ExoraPad: Project Launches with AI Vetting

Finally, there’s ExoraPad, an AI-driven launchpad for promising RWAs, DePINs, and Web3 projects, built on the XRP Ledger (XRPL). While web3 launchpads are nothing new, ExoraPad isn’t your garden-variety gateway: it uses AI algorithms to sift through the field and spotlight only the best ventures. Its staking-based tier system, meanwhile, rewards higher stakers with priority access, better allocations, and investment perks, while XRPL’s proven infrastructure ensures transparency and risk mitigation.

By filtering out the noise (and in defi, it’s often cacophonous), ExoraPad is giving investors the sort of peace of mind they crave. It also appeals to strong projects, confident they can pass muster when AI’s running the rule over them.

With AI tokens capturing 35.7% of crypto investor interest in Q1, the synergies between AI and blockchain continue to strengthen. One wonders which use case will have the most legs in the race towards ‘$20 trillion by 2030’.

For years, the narrative surrounding financial fraud has often centered on older adults as the primary targets. However, recent data paints a different picture, as younger adults have become an outsized proportion of those affected. This is driven, in part, by the online habits of younger generations, where their familiarity with digital platforms makes them better targets of scams.

“Younger adults often believe tech savviness equals scam immunity,” Adewale Adeife, a senior cybersecurity consultant at EY, told Investopedia. “That overconfidence lowers their guard and makes them ideal targets for fast-money schemes,”

In this article, we highlight the types of scams that target different age groups and the psychological factors that make younger adults particularly susceptible.

Age-Based Vulnerabilities: Myth vs. Data

For years, conventional wisdom suggested older adults were the primary victims of financial fraud. However, recent research emphasizes a recurring finding in recent years: younger adults are losing money to fraud at rates that outpace those who are older, even as the “success” rate for scam artists (those where money is gained) is rising for all age groups.

Still, scammers are working to take advantage of online habits, social behaviors, finances, and psychology, all of which are affected by age. FTC data shows that in 2024, 44% of people ages 20 to 29 who reported fraud had financial losses, compared with 24% among those aged 70 to 79. Similarly, a 2024 PYMTS Intelligence and Featurespace study found that 83% of young adults were deceived at least once by a suspicious link in a message, with 39% of millennials and 36% of Gen Z reporting household losses to scams compared with only 19% of Baby Boomers and older adults.

Digital Natives, Digital Prey

While young people are often called “digital natives,” this familiarity with technology doesn’t translate to some sort of scam immunity. A March 2025 study looking at Instagram users between 16 and 29 found that frequent social media use often leads to “quick, instinctive decisions instead of systematically evaluating risks,” Jennifer Klütsch, one of its authors, told the Wall Street Journal.

The study also found that younger people are both more likely to trust a sender they recognize without scrutinizing suspicious links and to make impulsive decisions driven by fear of missing out on social experiences. This vulnerability aligns all too well with scammers’ tactics. Klütsch and her colleagues’ work, building on previous research, found that messages from followers (versus non-followers) and messages offering social opportunities (compared with faux job or relationship prospects) substantially increased young people’s susceptibility to phishing, where scammers impersonate legitimate senders in emails and texts.

“Social media is valued as a trusted and habitually-used environment, [and] its design makes it also inherently conducive to the effectiveness of [social engineering] attacks,” Klütsch and her colleagues concluded.

Types of Scams Targeting the Young

Young adults face particular scams tailored to their digital habits and life stage:

• Employment scams: “We’re seeing a rise in job offer scams, where fake recruiters ask for training fees,” Adeife said. Other common tactics include fake check schemes where victims deposit fraudulent checks and transfer money for “training” or “equipment.”
• Online purchase scams: Young bank customers are more than twice as likely to use credit cards to pay scammers as those over 40. The top products used include event tickets, salon services, jewelry, clothing, and eyewear.
• Cryptocurrency scams: Cryptocurrency fraud is among the most remunerative for scam artists, with a “success” rate of 60% when targeting the young.
• Social media scams: Social media platforms have become primary arenas for fraud targeting younger adults. “[Scammers] pose as influencers or friends, adding urgency with fake threats like ‘Your account will be closed,’” Adeife said. Since 69% of Gen Z claim to be “always connected” to the internet (compared with 32% of Baby Boomers), scammers have far more access to them than with other generations. In addition, on platforms like Instagram, messages from supposed followers can exploit users’ trust in the platform itself.

The Bottom Line

“Young adults are a susceptible user group, prone to be targeted by phishers who exploit their needs and expectations,” Klütsch and her colleagues wrote in the March 2025 study. This accessibility for scamsters operating worldwide means that younger adults are being defrauded at rates far higher than other generations. “Many people think scams mostly affect older adults,” the FTC has noted. “But reports to the FTC…tell a different story: anyone can be scammed.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 500 points, or 1.3%, near midday Thursday and there was one stock that bore most of the blame: UnitedHealth Group (UNH). 

Shares of UnitedHealth plummeted more than 20% after the health insurer cut its full-year earnings forecast, citing higher-than-expected costs. Meanwhile, more than two-thirds of the 30 stocks in the blue-chip Dow, one of the most commonly cited measures of U.S. stock market performance, were trading higher. The S&P 500 was up 0.3% at the same time and the Nasdaq Composite—usually much more volatile than the Dow due to its preponderance of growth stocks—was marginally lower after yesterday’s sell-off. 

The Dow’s dramatic underperformance on Thursday was a clear reflection of the index’s unique methodology. The Dow is price-weighted, meaning the stocks with the highest share prices have the most influence on the index’s performance. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq, on the other hand, are capitalization-weighted indexes that are more influenced by the companies with the highest market values, not the highest share prices. 

UnitedHealth Group, with a closing price of $585.04 yesterday, was the highest-priced stock in the Dow and thus its most influential component. Goldman Sachs (GS), which closed at $499.05 yesterday, is the only Dow stock with a share price within $100 of UnitedHealth’s. (With UnitedHealth’s losses on Thursday, Goldman could finish the week as the Dow’s heftiest stock.) 

Apple (AAPL), with a closing price of $194.27 yesterday, has a fraction of UnitedHealth’s influence within the Dow. But the iPhone maker has 15 billion shares, and thus a market capitalization of nearly $3 trillion. UnitedHealth’s approximately 900 million shares put its market cap at Wednesday’s close at $535 billion, meaning Apple stock has more than 5 times the weight in the S&P 500.

To be sure, UnitedHealth, the S&P 500’s 14th-largest company heading into Thursday—still has a massive amount of influence within the S&P 500.

The selection committee that picks stocks for the Dow is cognizant of its peculiarities. Its price-weighted methodology, according to S&P Global, “has meant, over the years, that extremely high-priced stocks have not been included in The Dow.” Investors often speculate that companies with high share prices split their stock in part to increase their chances of joining the Dow. In recent years, Amazon (AMZN) and Nvidia (NVDA) have both been added to the Dow in relatively short order after splitting their stocks, which had been trading at more than $1,000 per share.

The Dow isn’t the only index susceptible to hazardous imbalance. Earlier this year, the Magnificent Seven—Apple, Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA)—accounted for about one-third of the S&P 500, an extreme level of concentration that set off some investors’ alarm bells. 

The market mood has been dark lately. Stocks have cratered. Bonds have crumbled. Consumer confidence is collapsing. And yet, in the midst of one of the fastest 20% market drops in modern history, Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell essentially told investors yesterday: “We’re in no rush to cut rates.”

That’s right. With the economy cracking under the weight of a global trade war and sentiment falling off a cliff, the captain of the monetary ship looked us in the eye and said, “We’re going to wait and see.”

Wall Street didn’t like it. Stocks and yields initially sank in response.

But we’re here to tell you, don’t panic just yet. More importantly, don’t listen to the words; watch the feet.

Powell may have said “no cuts for now,” but the evolving reality on the ground says something very different… 

In fact, we believe the Fed is on the brink of launching a full-blown rescue mission for the U.S. economy – and it could send stocks soaring.

Let’s break it down.

Powell’s Stagflation Dilemma and the Federal Reserve’s Tough Choice

To us, Powell’s message yesterday made clear that the Fed is confused.

He said that Trump’s massive tariff regime is larger than expected and that it will likely create more inflation and slow the economy more than expected. That’s a problem because rising inflation + falling growth = stagflation.

That would be an economy where central banks are damned if they do and damned if they don’t.

Should they raise rates to fight inflation or cut them to combat the slowdown?

Powell said the Fed doesn’t know which it’ll be yet – so it’s going to sit on the sidelines and wait to find out.

That might sound measured and diplomatic. But in reality, it’s a dangerous game of chicken. And Powell knows it.

Why the Fed Must Act: Financial Conditions Are Too Tight

If you strip away the ‘Fed speak’ and look at the data, the picture becomes clear: The central bank should already be cutting rates.

Bloomberg’s U.S. Financial Conditions Index – a catch-all measure of credit spreads, equity levels, and money supply – shows that outside of 2020’s COVID crash, financial conditions are now tighter than they’ve been at any time in the past decade.

Indeed, they are currently tighter than they were during China’s 2015 slowdown, the 2018 Fed freak-out, and 2022’s inflation panic.

Financial conditions are too tight… 

Because here’s the backdrop we are dealing with right now:

• Consumer confidence is near a 50-year low. According to the University of Michigan’s latest survey, consumer sentiment plunged 11% this month to 50.8 – a 12-year low and the second-lowest level on record since 1952.
• Retail sales are slowing, especially on a core basis. Though sales surged 1.4% in March, this uptick is likely temporary as consumers attempt to ‘frontload’ tariffs. In February, retail sales rose 0.2%, much lower than the 0.7% increase economists projected.
• Business investment has stalled, down $130 billion from Q3 to Q4 of 2024. 
• The housing market is frozen solid. Data from the National Association of Realtors shows that existing home sales fell 1.2% year-over-year.
• Despite all of the above, bond yields are spiking, not falling. The 10-year now sits at 4.29%, above where it was before Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement.

This is not a good cocktail. 

It practically screams for Fed action. And we believe Powell is quietly preparing for that –  regardless of what he’s saying in public.

D.R. Horton (DHI) on Thursday announced fiscal second-quarter results with fewer ordered and closed homes than expected, as revenue and profit also fell short of analysts’ estimates.

The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $2.58 on revenue of $7.73 billion, both below consensus forecasts of analysts compiled by Visible Alpha.

D.R. Horton had 22,437 net sales orders in the quarter and closed on 19,276 homes, both down 15% year-over-year. Analysts had expected 26,384 net orders and 20,205 closings.

“The 2025 spring selling season started slower than expected as potential homebuyers have been more cautious due to continued affordability constraints and declining consumer confidence,” executive chairman David Auld said.

DR Horton Cuts Revenue, Homes Closed Forecasts

The homebuilder cut its fiscal 2025 guidance for revenue and homes closed based on results for first two quarters and “current market conditions.” It now expects revenue of $33.3 billion to $34.8 billion, down from $36.0 billion to $37.5 billion, and closings of 85,000 homes to 87,000 homes, reduced from 90,000 to 92,000.

D.R. Horton also lifted its projected stock buybacks for the fiscal year to $4 billion, up from $2.6 billion to $2.8 billion previously, as the company’s board approved a new $5 billion repurchase plan.

Shares of D.R. Horton were up more than 2% less than an hour after markets opened Thursday. They entered the day down 16% so far this year as homebuilder stocks have fallen on concerns that tariffs would raise costs.

If you don’t pay the property taxes that you owe on your home, you could lose it.

When property taxes go unpaid, the amount you owe becomes a lien on your house. If you don’t pay off the amount you owe, the house could be sold in a tax sale. In other instances, the house may be put in foreclosure before being sold.

How Soon You’ll Lose Your House

How quickly can a home with unpaid property taxes be sold? It typically takes one to three years.

“Paying property taxes on time is critical since not paying for as little as one year in some municipalities allows that municipality to place your property on the upcoming property auction list,” says Kassi Fetters, owner of Artica Financial Services.

Fetters went on to point out that once your property is auctioned off, that municipality will pay off your property tax debt, late fees, and auction fees for you. Then you get what’s left. “I’ve seen this happen for nonpayment of property taxes after only two years,” said Fetters.

Redeeming a House

If you have enough money, you may be able to get your house back. It is possible for a homeowner to redeem the property after a tax sale by paying the sale amount or back taxes owed plus interest. How long you have to redeem a property varies from state to state.

How to Avoid Being Late on Property Taxes

Using escrow is one way to make sure you have enough money to pay your property tax bill.

“This means that your property taxes are added to your mortgage payment, so it’s done automatically,” says Noah Damsky, a Principal at Marina Wealth Advisors. “This is the most convenient method because it’s built into your regular budget and doesn’t require you to make multiple one-off property tax payments each year.”

You can also make direct payments to your local tax collector. Start saving early in the year to have enough for your property tax payments.

“You can make one-off payments each year to your county property assessor online, so it’s convenient; you just have to make sure you make the deadlines. There are often soft deadlines that can be missed without penalty and firm deadlines weeks later that carry stiff late penalties,” Damsky says.

Make a plan for paying your property taxes. Put aside a little each month so you’ll have the full amount saved by the time your property taxes are due.

The Bottom Line

Falling behind on your property tax payments could cause you to lose your home. This could happen in a year to three years, so you could go from being a homeowner to living without a house in a short period of time.

If you still want to keep your home and you have saved enough money, you can redeem it after a tax sale by paying the sale amount of the house or taxes that are owed plus interest. To avoid falling behind on your property taxes, put aside some money each month so you’ll have enough to cover your property taxes when they come due.

We are thrilled to announce that Convera Live, the international roadshow hosted by Convera, a global leader in commercial payments, is setting its sights for North America. This must-attend event for senior financial decision makers will feature industry experts and discussions around trends shaping international payments today including market insights, key factors driving volatility, and ways to navigate global commerce.

Following a successful run of events across Australia, Singapore, and Europe, the Convera Live roadshow series will bring its expertise to over 10 key cities in total across the globe, including Canada and the United States.

The first North American event kicks off on April 24, 2025 at the World Trade Center in New York City. Those interested can register to attend here.

“The volatile global economy creates major challenges for businesses operating internationally. Convera Live brings our experts’ insights directly to companies to help them navigate currency risks, understand market trends, and help protect their profits when expanding globally.” said Steven Dooley, Global Head of Market Insights at Convera. “After tremendous success across other regions, we’re excited to expand our roadshow locations.”

Convera Live offers a unique opportunity for businesses to:

Gain expert insights on the currency market outlook

Learn from Convera’s market analysts how the new Trump administration’s trade policies and tariff strategies could impact financial markets.

Develop effective FX risk management strategies

Discover practical approaches to help mitigate foreign exchange exposure and protect your business from unexpected currency fluctuations.

Create a roadmap for global expansion

Understand how to successfully pursue international growth despite economic headwinds. Learn from Convera executives who have navigated expansion during challenging economic conditions.

Network with industry peers

Connect with other business professionals and share valuable insights into navigating the current economic landscape.

Convera wins best B2B payments company award

The launch of the Convera Live Global Roadshow follows the company’s recent triumph at the ninth FinTech Breakthrough Awards. Convera won the title of Best B2B Payments Company, recognized for its tech-led payment solutions, expansive financial network, and foreign exchange expertise, helping 26,000 customers globally do business across borders.

The Fintech Breakthrough Awards acknowledge industry excellence by evaluating every entrant based on key areas of innovation, performance, ease of use, functionality, value and impact. Every entrant must complicate a detailed application providing product overviews, technical specifications, real-world case studies, and details of the product’s future evolution. Each submission undergoes a rigorous evaluation and peer comparison by an expert judging panel.

This latest win follows Convera’s inclusion in CNBC’s list of top fintech companies in 2024 and FXC Intelligence’s top 100 cross border payment companies.

Want more insights on the topics shaping the future of cross-border payments? Tune in to Converge, with new episodes every Wednesday.

Plus, register for the Daily Market Update to get the latest currency news and FX analysis from our experts directly to your inbox.