Archives 2025

Here’s What Makes It So Affordable



Tucked away in southern Virginia near the North Carolina border, Danville is a mid-sized town of just over 42,000 people. It offers retirees a quieter, more relaxed lifestyle than larger cities without sacrificing essential amenities, largely thanks to more than $300 million invested in local revitalization over the past decade.

Once a hub of tobacco production, Danville has steadily reinvented itself. Its River District, now the town’s centerpiece, has seen a dramatic transformation, with historic warehouses repurposed into housing, breweries, restaurants, and even a science center. Let’s look at why this Virginia town is gaining attention as an affordable retirement gem.

Key Takeaways

  • Danville offers a much lower cost of living than the national average, making it easier for retirees to live comfortably on a fixed income.
  • The median home value is just over $110,000, about a quarter of the national median, and taxes, food costs, and housing expenses are significantly lower than across the U.S, 
  • The town also provides ample access to medical services, with 160 health care establishments countywide and affordable local transportation.
  • Recreation in Danville tends to be relaxed and community-focused, with entertainment options like riverfront hiking trails, art venues, and weekly farmers markets.

Cost of Living in Danville, Virginia

Even among the other top retirement destinations in the United States, Danville stands out as an exceptionally affordable choice. The median household income in the town is $42,778, barely more than half the national median of $80,610. That might seem like a drawback at first glance, but it’s actually a reflection of the area’s remarkably low cost of living.

Take housing, for example. The median home value in Danville is just $110,200, compared to $419,200 nationally. That offers potential savings of more than $300,000—and a discount of nearly 75%—for retirees interested in homebuying. Recurring costs are similarly reduced, with the typical monthly housing expense in Danville at $776 versus $1,338 for the average American.

Food costs also tend to be much lower than in the rest of the country. A two-person household in Danville spends around $586 a month, while the national monthly average is about $832. That equates to a discount of roughly 30%.

In addition to the low local costs, retired Danville residents can benefit from the fact that Virginia doesn’t tax Social Security income.

Note

The top four categories in the average retiree’s budget—housing, transportation, healthcare, and food—account for roughly 77% of total annual spending. Optimizing for these expenses is one of the best ways to keep your cost of living down.

Health Care and Accessibility

Reliable access to health care is an essential quality in a top retirement destination, and Danville more than delivers. The town is home to 160 medical facilities, including three hospitals. That number may seem modest compared to larger metropolitan areas, but it works out to a surprisingly dense 3.7 health care establishments per square mile.

Not only can Danville residents reach a medical provider without traveling too far, but local transportation is also more affordable than in many parts of the country. The typical monthly transportation cost in Danville is just $1,058, slightly below the national average of $1,098.

Tip

Public transit is also readily available, including a Mass Transit System that offers $1 bus rides from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m., Monday through Saturday. Rides are 50% off until noon for seniors, persons with disabilities, and Medicare cardholders.

For longer trips—whether for out-of-town health care or just to visit family—Raleigh-Durham International Airport is only 61 miles away from the city center. That makes interstate and international travel relatively convenient, without the higher cost of living that often comes with being too near a major airport.

Lifestyle and Recreational Activities

Affordability and access to health care are essential, but retirement should also be about enjoying your time. Danville offers a surprisingly well-rounded lifestyle for a relatively small city for those who would like a slower-paced, low-stress place to live.

For one, Danville supports a small but active arts community with 19 different art establishments, including everything from galleries to public performance spaces. For example, The Danville Museum of Fine Arts and History—housed in a Civil War-era mansion—anchors the city’s cultural scene with rotating exhibits, community events, and art education programs.

If you prefer to spend your leisure time outdoors, you can take advantage of Danville’s extensive trail system and riverside parks. The Dan River runs directly through the town, creating easy access to hiking, fishing, and kayaking opportunities. Thanks to the area’s relatively low Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) climate risk rating, you can enjoy these spaces with less chance of natural disruptions.

Note

Danville’s top-rated Riverwalk Trail spans nearly 13 miles along the Dan River and connects several parks, historical sites, and downtown areas, making it a local favorite.

The Danville community may be quieter and more relaxed than in larger retirement destinations, but there are still plenty of ways to make connections. For example, a weekly farmers’ market runs from May to October, offering local foods and handmade goods. Meanwhile, summer brings free outdoor concerts through the Rhythms at the River series, bringing the townsfolk down to the River District waterfront.

The Bottom Line

Danville shines for its exceptional affordability, with the cost of living well below the national average in key categories like housing, food, and transportation. Its recent revitalization has only added to its appeal, turning its formerly empty downtown into a hub of local eateries, cultural venues, and green spaces.

If you’re looking to stretch your savings without sacrificing quality of life, Danville stands out as a smart and increasingly vibrant place to settle down.



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Will You REALLY Need a REAL ID to Fly on May 7?



Key Takeaways

  • The REAL ID Act was signed into law by President George W. Bush in 2005 and expected to be implemented in 2008. That still hasn’t happened.
  • However, the Department of Homeland Security now says it will begin enforcement on May 7.
  • The government says passengers hoping to fly then without REAL ID-compliant identification “should plan to arrive at airports about three hours in advance of their flight, as delays are possible at the identity verification station within checkpoints.”

The REAL ID Act, signed into law 20 years ago, still hasn’t gone into effect. This time, though, the Department of Homeland Security swears it will—starting early next month.

Republican and Democratic administrations alike have kicked the can down the road since President George W. Bush signed the REAL ID Act to establish federal standards for identification documents into law in May 2005.

That looks set to end May 7, when its Transportation Security Administration unit says at long last it will step up enforcement. “If you plan to fly, make sure you get a Real ID so you won’t be denied from your flight or face travel delays!” DHS Secretary Kristi Noem said on a recent X post.

Here’s what this means for American travelers.

Countdown Clock

Despite having extended the deadline on multiple occasions over the decades, the DHS insists REAL ID enforcement will take place soon. It even has a “Countdown to REAL ID Enforcement” clock ticking down on its website.

The bottom line: If you want to travel using your state driver’s license or ID—or do other activities that require federal identification—you’ll need it to be a REAL ID, though other forms of identification, such as valid passports, can also work. A full list is here.

“On May 7, 2025, U.S. travelers must be REAL ID compliant to board domestic flights and access certain federal facilities,” reads the DHS website, which has an interactive tool to help people determine if they’re “REAL ID ready” that you can check out here.

In a statement provided to Investopedia, the TSA said that beginning May 7, “every air traveler 18 years of age and older is expected to have a REAL ID-compliant ID. That is a state-issued driver’s license, state-issued identification card or another acceptable form of ID.”

REAL ID-compliant IDs are marked with a star. The TSA also will continue accepting Enhanced Driver’s Licenses, which “provide proof of identity and U.S. citizenship when crossing the U.S. border and are available in Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Vermont, and Washington.”

What Will ID Checks Be Like at Airports Starting May 7?

Things may be bumpy at the start. Asked what will happen to passengers who arrive at U.S. airports without acceptable ID on May 7, the TSA say they “should plan to arrive at airports about three hours in advance of their flight, as delays are possible at the identity verification station within checkpoints.”

As of April 11, more than 80% of travelers at TSA checkpoints were presenting acceptable identification, the TSA said, adding it “expects the number of passengers obtaining REAL IDs to steadily increase and will continue with additional screening measures for those without a REAL ID until it is no longer considered a security vulnerability.” 

If you’re in the estimated 20% of Americans not already compliant, DHS instructs you to “visit your state’s driver’s licensing agency website to find out exactly what documentation is required to obtain a REAL ID.”



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30-Year Mortgage Rates Holding Onto 3-Day Decline



Loan Type New Purchase Rates Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 6.95% +0.01
FHA 30-Year Fixed 7.37% +0.33
VA 30-Year Fixed 6.64% +0.04
20-Year Fixed 6.83% No Change
15-Year Fixed 6.07% +0.03
FHA 15-Year Fixed 6.82% +0.50
10-Year Fixed 6.42% No Change
7/6 ARM 7.34% No Change
5/6 ARM 7.22% +0.04
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 7.01% +0.03
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 6.65% +0.08
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 7.59% +0.40
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 7.47% +0.02
Provided via the Zillow Mortgage API

The Weekly Freddie Mac Average

Every Thursday, Freddie Mac, a government-sponsored buyer of mortgage loans, publishes a weekly average of 30-year mortgage rates. Yesterday’s reading plunged 21 basis points to 6.41%, largely capturing the drop in rates seen late last week. Last September, the average sank as far as 6.08%. But back in October 2023, Freddie Mac’s average saw a historic rise, surging to a 23-year peak of 7.79%.

Freddie Mac’s average differs from what we report for 30-year rates because Freddie Mac calculates a weekly average that blends five previous days of rates. In contrast, our Investopedia 30-year average is a daily reading, offering a more precise and timely indicator of rate movement. In addition, the criteria for included loans (e.g., amount of down payment, credit score, inclusion of discount points) varies between Freddie Mac’s methodology and our own.

Calculate monthly payments for different loan scenarios with our Mortgage Calculator.

Important

The rates we publish won’t compare directly with teaser rates you see advertised online since those rates are cherry-picked as the most attractive vs. the averages you see here. Teaser rates may involve paying points in advance or may be based on a hypothetical borrower with an ultra-high credit score or for a smaller-than-typical loan. The rate you ultimately secure will be based on factors like your credit score, income, and more, so it can vary from the averages you see here.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as:

  • The level and direction of the bond market, especially 10-year Treasury yields
  • The Federal Reserve’s current monetary policy, especially as it relates to bond buying and funding government-backed mortgages
  • Competition between mortgage lenders and across loan types

Because any number of these can cause fluctuations simultaneously, it’s generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of 2021. In particular, the Federal Reserve had been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic’s economic pressures. This bond-buying policy is a major influencer of mortgage rates.

But starting in November 2021, the Fed began tapering its bond purchases downward, making sizable reductions each month until reaching net zero in March 2022.

Between that time and July 2023, the Fed aggressively raised the federal funds rate to fight decades-high inflation. While the fed funds rate can influence mortgage rates, it doesn’t directly do so. In fact, the fed funds rate and mortgage rates can move in opposite directions.

But given the historic speed and magnitude of the Fed’s 2022 and 2023 rate increases—raising the benchmark rate 5.25 percentage points over 16 months—even the indirect influence of the fed funds rate has resulted in a dramatic upward impact on mortgage rates over the last two years.

The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at its peak level for almost 14 months, beginning in July 2023. But in September, the central bank announced a first rate cut of 0.50 percentage points, and then followed that with quarter-point reductions in November and December.

For its second meeting of 2025, however, the Fed opted to hold rates steady—and it’s possible the central bank may not make another rate cut for months. At their March 19 meeting, the Fed released its quarterly rate forecast, which showed that, at that time, the central bankers’ median expectation for the rest of the year was just two quarter-point rate cuts. With a total of eight rate-setting meetings scheduled per year, that means we could see multiple rate-hold announcements in 2025.

How We Track Mortgage Rates

The national and state averages cited above are provided as is via the Zillow Mortgage API, assuming a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 80% (i.e., a down payment of at least 20%) and an applicant credit score in the 680–739 range. The resulting rates represent what borrowers should expect when receiving quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates. © Zillow, Inc., 2025. Use is subject to the Zillow Terms of Use.



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Refinance Rates Inch Up After Retreating All Week



After enjoying a three-day retreat of more than 20 basis points to start the week, 30-year refinance rates ticked back up a bit Thursday. Rising 5 basis points, the flagship refi average is up to 7.14%. A surge last week, however, pushed Friday’s average to 7.31%, the most expensive reading for 30-year refi rates since July 2024.

With the 30-year refi average falling as low as 6.71% in early March, today’s rates are nearly 45 points pricier. The 30-year refi average is also almost 1.15 percentage points above last September’s two-year low of 6.01%.

Several other refi loan types climbed as well on Thursday. Both the 15-year and 20-year refi averages edged 3 basis points higher. However, jumbo 30-year refi rates slipped 5 points on average.

National Averages of Lenders’ Best Rates – Refinance
Loan Type Refinance Rates Daily Change
30-Year Fixed 7.14% +0.05
FHA 30-Year Fixed 6.62% No Change
VA 30-Year Fixed 6.70% +0.02
20-Year Fixed 7.04% +0.03
15-Year Fixed 6.01% +0.03
FHA 15-Year Fixed 6.07% No Change
10-Year Fixed 6.60% No Change
7/6 ARM 7.33% +0.01
5/6 ARM 7.27% +0.12
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 7.11% -0.05
Jumbo 15-Year Fixed 6.80% +0.28
Jumbo 7/6 ARM 7.64% +0.44
Jumbo 5/6 ARM 7.35% -0.08
Provided via the Zillow Mortgage API
Occasionally some rate averages show a much larger than usual change from one day to the next. This can be due to some loan types being less popular among mortgage shoppers, such as the 10-year fixed rate, resulting in the average being based on a small sample size of rate quotes.

Important

The rates we publish won’t compare directly with teaser rates you see advertised online since those rates are cherry-picked as the most attractive vs. the averages you see here. Teaser rates may involve paying points in advance or may be based on a hypothetical borrower with an ultra-high credit score or for a smaller-than-typical loan. The rate you ultimately secure will be based on factors like your credit score, income, and more, so it can vary from the averages you see here.

Since rates vary widely across lenders, it’s always wise to shop around for your best mortgage refinance option and compare rates regularly, no matter the type of home loan you seek.

Calculate monthly payments for different loan scenarios with our Mortgage Calculator.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as:

  • The level and direction of the bond market, especially 10-year Treasury yields
  • The Federal Reserve’s current monetary policy, especially as it relates to bond buying and funding government-backed mortgages
  • Competition between mortgage lenders and across loan types

Because any number of these can cause fluctuations at the same time, it’s generally difficult to attribute any single change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of 2021. In particular, the Federal Reserve had been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic’s economic pressures. This bond-buying policy is a major influencer of mortgage rates.

But starting in November 2021, the Fed began tapering its bond purchases downward, making sizable reductions each month until reaching net zero in March 2022.

Between that time and July 2023, the Fed aggressively raised the federal funds rate to fight decades-high inflation. While the fed funds rate can influence mortgage rates, it doesn’t directly do so. In fact, the fed funds rate and mortgage rates can move in opposite directions.

But given the historic speed and magnitude of the Fed’s 2022 and 2023 rate increases—raising the benchmark rate 5.25 percentage points over 16 months—even the indirect influence of the fed funds rate has resulted in a dramatic upward impact on mortgage rates over the last two years.

The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at its peak level for almost 14 months, beginning in July 2023. But in September, the central bank announced a first rate cut of 0.50 percentage points, and then followed that with quarter-point reductions in November and December.

For its second meeting of 2025, however, the Fed opted to hold rates steady—and it’s possible the central bank may not make another rate cut for months. At their March 19 meeting, the Fed released its quarterly rate forecast, which showed that, at that time, the central bankers’ median expectation for the rest of the year was just two quarter-point rate cuts. With a total of eight rate-setting meetings scheduled per year, that means we could see multiple rate-hold announcements in 2025.

How We Track Mortgage Rates

The national and state averages cited above are provided as is via the Zillow Mortgage API, assuming a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 80% (i.e., a down payment of at least 20%) and an applicant credit score in the 680–739 range. The resulting rates represent what borrowers should expect when receiving quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates. © Zillow, Inc., 2025. Use is subject to the Zillow Terms of Use.



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Today’s Mortgage Rates by State – Apr. 18, 2025



The states with the cheapest 30-year new purchase mortgage rates Thursday were New York, California, Florida, New Jersey, Texas, Washington, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, and North Carolina. The ten states registered averages between 6.80% and 6.93%.

Meanwhile, the states with the highest Thursday rates were West Virginia, Washington, D.C., Alaska, Maryland, Mississippi, North Dakota, South Carolina, and Wyoming. The range of averages for these states was 7.01% to 7.05%.

Mortgage rates vary by the state where they originate. Different lenders operate in different regions, and rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average loan size, and regulations. Lenders also have varying risk management strategies that influence the rates they offer.

Since rates vary widely across lenders, it’s always smart to shop around for your best mortgage option and compare rates regularly, no matter the type of home loan you seek.

Important

The rates we publish won’t compare directly with teaser rates you see advertised online since those rates are cherry-picked as the most attractive vs. the averages you see here. Teaser rates may involve paying points in advance or may be based on a hypothetical borrower with an ultra-high credit score or for a smaller-than-typical loan. The rate you ultimately secure will be based on factors like your credit score, income, and more, so it can vary from the averages you see here.

National Mortgage Rate Averages

Rates on 30-year new purchase mortgages dipped 20 basis points over the first three days this week, then held essentially flat Thursday at a 6.95% average. That follows a surge of 44 points last week that shot the average up to 7.14%—its most expensive level since May 2024.

Last month, in contrast, 30-year rates sank to 6.50%, their cheapest average of 2025. And back in September, 30-year rates plunged to a two-year low of 5.89%.

National Averages of Lenders’ Best Mortgage Rates
Loan Type New Purchase
30-Year Fixed 6.95%
FHA 30-Year Fixed 7.37%
15-Year Fixed 6.07%
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 7.01%
5/6 ARM 7.22%
Provided via the Zillow Mortgage API

Calculate monthly payments for different loan scenarios with our Mortgage Calculator.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as:

  • The level and direction of the bond market, especially 10-year Treasury yields
  • The Federal Reserve’s current monetary policy, especially as it relates to bond buying and funding government-backed mortgages
  • Competition between mortgage lenders and across loan types

Because any number of these can cause fluctuations simultaneously, it’s generally difficult to attribute any change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of 2021. In particular, the Federal Reserve had been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic’s economic pressures. This bond-buying policy is a major influencer of mortgage rates.

But starting in November 2021, the Fed began tapering its bond purchases downward, making sizable monthly reductions until reaching net zero in March 2022.

Between that time and July 2023, the Fed aggressively raised the federal funds rate to fight decades-high inflation. While the fed funds rate can influence mortgage rates, it doesn’t directly do so. In fact, the fed funds rate and mortgage rates can move in opposite directions.

But given the historic speed and magnitude of the Fed’s 2022 and 2023 rate increases—raising the benchmark rate 5.25 percentage points over 16 months—even the indirect influence of the fed funds rate has resulted in a dramatic upward impact on mortgage rates over the last two years.

The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at its peak level for almost 14 months, beginning in July 2023. But in September, the central bank announced a first rate cut of 0.50 percentage points, and then followed that with quarter-point reductions in November and December.

For its first meeting of the new year, however, the Fed opted to hold rates steady—and it’s possible the central bank may not make another rate cut for months. With a total of eight rate-setting meetings scheduled per year, that means we could see multiple rate-hold announcements in 2025.

How We Track Mortgage Rates

The national and state averages cited above are provided as is via the Zillow Mortgage API, assuming a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 80% (i.e., a down payment of at least 20%) and an applicant credit score in the 680–739 range. The resulting rates represent what borrowers should expect when receiving quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates. © Zillow, Inc., 2025. Use is subject to the Zillow Terms of Use.



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Today’s Refinance Rates by State – Apr. 18, 2025



The states with the cheapest 30-year mortgage refinance rates Thursday were California, New York, Tennessee, Florida, Texas, North Carolina, Georgia, and New Jersey. The eight states registered averages between 6.98% and 7.10%.

Meanwhile, the states with the highest Thursday refinance rates were Alaska, Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia, Wyoming, Rhode Island, Washington, D.C., Hawaii, and North Dakota. The range of 30-year refi averages for these states was 7.20% to 7.22%.

Mortgage refinance rates vary by the state where they originate. Different lenders operate in different regions, and rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average loan size, and regulations. Lenders also have varying risk management strategies that influence the rates they offer.

Since rates vary widely across lenders, it’s always smart to shop around for your best mortgage option and compare rates regularly, no matter the type of home loan you seek.

Important

The rates we publish won’t compare directly with teaser rates you see advertised online since those rates are cherry-picked as the most attractive vs. the averages you see here. Teaser rates may involve paying points in advance or may be based on a hypothetical borrower with an ultra-high credit score or for a smaller-than-typical loan. The rate you ultimately secure will be based on factors like your credit score, income, and more, so it can vary from the averages you see here.

National Mortgage Refinance Rate Averages

Rates for 30-year refinance mortgages dropped 22 basis points over the first three days of this week, but then ticked up 5 basis points for a 7.14% Thursday average. Last week, the flagship refi average surged 40 basis points, with Friday’s 7.31% reading being the highest level for 30-year refi rates since July 2024.

Last month, in contrast, the 30-year refinance average sank to 6.71%, its cheapest level of 2025. And back in September, rates plunged to a two-year low of 6.01%.

National Averages of Lenders’ Best Mortgage Rates
Loan Type Refinance Rate Average
30-Year Fixed 7.14%
FHA 30-Year Fixed 6.62%
15-Year Fixed 6.01%
Jumbo 30-Year Fixed 7.11%
5/6 ARM 7.27%
Provided via the Zillow Mortgage API

Calculate monthly payments for different loan scenarios with our Mortgage Calculator.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as:

  • The level and direction of the bond market, especially 10-year Treasury yields
  • The Federal Reserve’s current monetary policy, especially as it relates to bond buying and funding government-backed mortgages
  • Competition between mortgage lenders and across loan types

Because any number of these can cause fluctuations simultaneously, it’s generally difficult to attribute any change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of 2021. In particular, the Federal Reserve had been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic’s economic pressures. This bond-buying policy is a major influencer of mortgage rates.

But starting in November 2021, the Fed began tapering its bond purchases downward, making sizable monthly reductions until reaching net zero in March 2022.

Between that time and July 2023, the Fed aggressively raised the federal funds rate to fight decades-high inflation. While the fed funds rate can influence mortgage rates, it doesn’t directly do so. In fact, the fed funds rate and mortgage rates can move in opposite directions.

But given the historic speed and magnitude of the Fed’s 2022 and 2023 rate increases—raising the benchmark rate 5.25 percentage points over 16 months—even the indirect influence of the fed funds rate has resulted in a dramatic upward impact on mortgage rates over the last two years.

The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at its peak level for almost 14 months, beginning in July 2023. But in September, the central bank announced a first rate cut of 0.50 percentage points, and then followed that with quarter-point reductions on November and December.

For its first meeting of the new year, however, the Fed opted to hold rates steady—and it’s possible the central bank may not make another rate cut for months. With a total of eight rate-setting meetings scheduled per year, that means we could see multiple rate-hold announcements in 2025.

How We Track Mortgage Rates

The national and state averages cited above are provided as is via the Zillow Mortgage API, assuming a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 80% (i.e., a down payment of at least 20%) and an applicant credit score in the 680–739 range. The resulting rates represent what borrowers should expect when receiving quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates. © Zillow, Inc., 2025. Use is subject to the Zillow Terms of Use.



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D.R. Horton Lamented a Slow Spring—And More Homebuilder Earnings Are Coming Up



Key Takeaways

  • D.R. Horton’s first-quarter earnings fell short of estimates on Thursday with the company cutting its full-year forecasts.
  • Executives said sales in the start of the spring season have been slower than expected.
  • A number of homebuilders are set to report their own results in the next two weeks.

D.R. Horton (DHI) on Thursday became the latest homebuilder to raise concerns about the housing market as it fell short of estimates.

The company cut its full-year forecasts for both revenue and homes closed as its first-quarter results missed expectations, saying that the spring selling season has “started slower than expected” amid concerns over affordability and worsening consumer confidence. (The shares rose yesterday, likely aided by an expanded buyback plan and encouraging margins.)

That could increase the focus on the next round of results due from the industry. PulteGroup (PHM), Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC), Meritage Homes (MTH), Tri Pointe Homes (TPH), Century Communities (CCS), and M/I Homes (MHO) each report next week, with NVR (NVR), LGI Homes (LGIH), and Green Brick Partners (GRBK) are due the week after.

D.R. Horton’s report echoed others that have already arrived. KB Home (KBH), Lennar (LEN) and Toll Brothers (TOL) have all said they have seen a slow housing market in the first quarter. D.R. Horton COO Michael Murray said in Thursday’s earnings call that affordability remains a “pressure point” for homebuyers, per an AlphaSense transcript.

Trump administration tariffs could hurt demand for homes and make them more expensive, analysts have said.

“I think we’re all going to have to come to the table and adjust to deliver a house that the market finds compelling and can afford,” D.R. Horton CEO Paul Romanowski said this week, adding that “we’re just going to have to see how this plays out and work with our supply partners and vendors to figure it out together.”



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Which American Jobs Are Most Likely To Be Affected As China Responds To Trump’s Tariffs?



KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • An escalating trade war with China, where one of the U.S.’s top trading partners placed a 125% tariff on American goods, will likely make it more expensive for American companies to export products to China.
  • American companies will likely slow hiring, and Trump’s tariffs are expected to reduce manufacturing employment by 500,000.
  • The trade war will most likely impact farmers and agriculture companies, as the majority of the $150 billion in goods the U.S. exports to China, is made up of agricultural products.

Exports to China support thousands of U.S. jobs, and economists say those positions could be at risk if trade tensions between the two countries continue.

In an escalating trade war with China, the U.S. has a tariff of 145% on Chinese goods, and China has placed a tariff of 125% on U.S. goods. Economists say these trade tensions will likely make it more expensive for American businesses to import and export Chinese goods and could threaten the labor market.

According to a report by the U.S.-China Business Council, in 2022, an estimated 931,231 American jobs were supported by exports to China. However, hiring and jobs in sectors most exposed to Chinese trade could be in danger if the two countries cannot reach a long-term trade deal and elevated tariffs persist.

A trade war could negatively impact American workers in sectors that rely on exports to China
Sector  Jobs
Oilseeds and Grains 178,736
Education 117,161
Meat Products 32,396
Aerospace Products and Parts 28,963
Semiconductors and Components 28,791
Miscellaneous Crops 28,391
Pharmaceuticals and Medicines 26,081
Industrial Machinery 24,373
Navigational and Measuring Instruments 22,961
Motor Vehicles 21,873
Oil and Gas 21,187
Medical Equipment and Supplies 20,929
Miscellaneous Personal and Recreational 18,636
Royalties from Industrial Processes 16,286
Miscellaneous Business, Professional & Technology Services 14,974
Pulp and Paperboard Mill Products 13,274
Miscellaneous General Purpose Machinery 12,678
Petroleum and Coal Products 12,011
Personal Travel and Tourism 11,470
Basic Chemicals 11,404
This table includes exported goods and services.

Tariffs have not hit the labor market yet; in March, few private-sector companies reported large-scale layoffs. However, as Trump’s back-and-forth tariffs continue to create uncertainty, Goldman Sachs economists say hiring will likely be the first economic element to feel the effects.

Chinese Tariffs On US Exports Could Hurt Farmers, Ranchers Most

More than one-fourth of the jobs that could be affected by Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods rely on agricultural trade with China. Farmers are worried they won’t be able to afford to sell to their previous trading partners. That could potentially, in turn, affect how they hire and fire workers.

“Farmers Union has always fought for fair trading relationships with other countries,” said Rob Larew, president of the National Farmers Union, in a statement on April 2. “We rely on stable markets and fair competition to thrive, but the administration’s actions today create instability at the expense of our family farmers.”

The Trump administration has discussed some emergency aid to farmers, as it did during its trade war with China in 2018, according to the New York Times. However, no aid has been put in place yet.



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What Companies Are Saying About the State of the US Consumer Right Now



How’s the American consumer doing? Recent comments from companies and their executives offers clues, with some citing healthy spending behavior and others seeing people looking to get ahead of tariffs on imported goods.

A leading homebuilder has said consumer confidence contributed to a slow start to the spring selling season. A German maker of educational toys said its category is one that can prove resilient in recessionary times. And a big grocer said it’s seeing plenty of value-seeking in its aisles.

Here’s a roundup of some observations about the state of the American spender so far this year.

Some Shoppers Seek to ‘Tighten Their Pocketbooks’

Grocer Albertsons (ACI) on Tuesday said it hasn’t seen consumer behavior change much, though it did say “consumer sentiment is low.” Consumers are “saying that they will do what they’ve been doing, which is seek value and find ways to tighten their pocketbooks,” CFO Sharon McCollam said on a conference call, according to a transcript provided by AlphaSense. 

That, executives said, means things like leaning on promotions and buying more products from proprietary brands.

Grocery stores, clothing and shoe stores, specialty food stores, and liquor stores all saw upticks in visitors last week, according to foot-traffic data from retail insights company pass_by .

“This isn’t just about inflation anymore—consumers are clearly reacting to tariff headlines by buying what they fear will soon become more expensive or harder to find,” said Vice President of Marketing James Ewen. “It’s rare to see such coordinated spikes across essentials, apparel, and specialty food in one week.”

At streaming giant Netflix (NFLX), which reported results late Thursday, members don’t seem to be cancelling or shifting to cheaper plans at unexpected rates, executives said.

“Based on what we are seeing by actually operating the business right now, there’s nothing really significant to note,” CEO Greg Peters said. “So what are we looking at, primary metrics and indicators would be our retention, that’s stable and strong.”

Entertainment spending, Peters said, “has been pretty resilient in tougher economic times. Netflix, specifically, also has been generally quite resilient, and we haven’t seen any major impacts during those tougher times, albeit, of course, over a much shorter history.”

Slower Home Buying; Wealthy Travelers Keep Spending

There are signs that Americans are putting off big purchases, though some may also be pulling car purchases forward to get ahead of expected tariff-driven price increases.

Paul Romanowski, CEO of homebuilder D. R. Horton (DHI) said in its earnings call Thursday that the “spring selling season started slower than expected as potential homebuyers have been more cautious due to continued affordability constraints and declining consumer confidence.”

Airlines have been under pressure so far this year, but high-end travelers may be resilient so far.

“The high-end consumer, the more wealthy consumer, the one that takes the global vacations, the one that wants to sit in a premium seat seems to be less impacted so far,” United Airlines (UAL) Chief Commercial Officer Andrew Nocella said during Wednesday’s earnings call, 

American Express (AXP) execs said demand is in line with the credit-card company’s expectations as part of its latest quarterly financial update.  

“We’re seeing our customers act as they have acted in the past,” said CEO Steve Squeri on a conference call. “Our card members may say they don’t have any confidence in the economy, but they still continue to spend, and they’re not spending off what’s in the market.”

Italian luxury fashion brand Moncler was asked about its U.S. consumers in its earnings call Wednesday. “We were and are still more worried about the current and future stage of health of the American economy and of consumer confidence” than about tariffs, Chief Corporate and Supply Officer Luciano Santel said,

Jan Middelhoff, CFO of German toymaker Tonies (TNIE), called American consumers “very healthy” and said in the company’s earnings call earlier this month that toys are considered a “recession-resilient category.”

“The last thing parents are saving on are their kids’ presents or expenses for kids,” CEO Tobias Wann said. “Kids don’t care about tariffs, and I can tell you the average playtime last week was the same [as] the week before and the weeks before,.”

Middelhoff said in the call that he has confidence in the category and in American consumers, and also says he thinks liftoff to consumer sentiment will occur once the shock of the current market changes eases.



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Regulators Give the Go-Ahead to Capital One-Discover Acquisition



Key Takeaways

  • Federal regulators approved Capital One’s purchase of Discover on Friday.
  • Some consumer advocacy groups had pushed regulators to block the transaction, arguing it would severely limit consumers’ options.
  • The resulting company will be the largest credit card company by customers’ outstanding balances after the combination.

Federal regulators approved Capital One’s (COF) bid to become America’s largest credit card lender, signing off on the company’s purchase of Discover (DFS) on Friday.

The merger will combine two of the industry’s best-known names, making it the biggest credit card company when customers’ outstanding balances are combined. Some consumer advocacy groups had pushed regulators to block the transaction, arguing it would severely limit consumers’ options.

However, the Federal Reserve and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency disagreed, determining that the credit card market would remain competitive after Capital One and Discover’s merger. Their approval of the deal may lead to more banks buying each other, since the industry had seen the deal as a test of regulators’ appetite for approving those transactions.

Capital One CEO Richard Fairbank called it an “exciting moment” for the two firms. 

He’s described Discover as having the “holy grail”: being able to issue credit cards for consumers that they use on Discover’s own payments network. Doing so cuts out the fees that middlemen Visa and Mastercard earn with every swipe.

Why Did Regulators Approve the Merger?

Capital One and Discover ranked No. 4 and 5 in credit card loans in 2023, behind Chase, Citibank and American Express, according to Capital One’s presentation announcing the deal. But combining the two would suddenly make them the top credit card lender, with $250 billion in credit card loans.

Some consumer groups had fought against the merger, particularly its impact on credit card borrowers with lower credit scores. The merger “would reduce options for financially vulnerable customers and reduce the already limited competition on pricing for non-prime credit cards,” the National Community Reinvestment Coalition and 137 other community groups wrote in a letter to regulators last year.

The Fed rejected those concerns, saying options for subprime borrowers would only become “moderately concentrated” without raising concerns of a monopoly. The Fed said in its decision that some 2,000 companies offer cards to customers with limited credit history.

Jesse Van Tol, the president and CEO of the NCRC, said in a statement that federal regulators “got this one wrong” and called on state attorneys general to “intervene against the harmful, anticompetitive Capital One-Discover merger.”

The Department of Justice can also sue to block deals after bank regulators approve them. However, the New York Times reported this month that the DOJ does not see significant concerns. The Fed’s decision on Friday made that clear, saying that after the agency’s review, the DOJ “concluded that the proposal does not warrant an adverse comment.”



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