Archives 2025

Forecasters are split on whether President Donald Trump’s tariff campaign will push the economy into a recession, with many seeing increased risks.

That’s according to the 57 economists who responded to a Wall Street Journal survey in April. The poll showed that, on average, the forecasters predicted a 45% chance of the economy going into a recession in the next 12 months, up from 20% the last time the poll was taken in January.

The economic outlook worsened significantly in February when Trump started announcing tariffs against U.S. trading partners. Many forecasters have changed their expectations that the U.S. would experience a “soft landing” from the post-pandemic surge of inflation to bracing for a downturn as the tariffs and other economic headwinds force businesses and households to reduce their spending.

One expert laid out the reasons she expects a recession, another why a downturn is unlikely.

The Argument That A Recession Is on the Horizon

Among the most pessimistic is Amy Crews Cutts, an independent forecaster, who said she was 99% confident of a recession taking hold within a year.

Several recent surveys have supported Cutts’s expectations that a recession is on the horizon. One was a survey of small business owners by the National Federation of Independent Businesses. Over the course of several months, the owners’ moods went from elation at Trump’s election victory to uncertainty about the impact of tariffs. An index measuring optimism plunged since January.

A separate survey of business financial professionals showed that businesses were having a harder time getting paid by clients in recent months, suggesting financial stress building among the companies that keep the economy running. The National Association of Credit Managers’ Credit Managers’ Index, which Cutts oversees, showed the economy was still expanding in March but at a slower pace than before.

Cutts was especially alarmed by remarks managers made in the open comment section of the survey, indicating they had seen an uptick in small businesses simply closing shop without declaring bankruptcy.

Cutts also noted that Trump’s on-again, off-again tariff announcements have wreaked havoc on businesses that import goods from overseas, especially because the import taxes have not exempted goods “on the water” or already being shipped, meaning that some businesses could find themselves scrambling to cover unexpected costs. Canceled orders and financial stress could translate into an economic slowdown and job losses.

Turbulence in financial markets could also influence the economy. People whose stock portfolios have suffered are less likely to make purchases, possibly throwing sand into the gears of the main engine of the U.S. economy, consumer spending. Cutts said that damage has been done even if the punishingly high tariffs are eventually negotiated down or called off.

“Even if I flipped a switch and tomorrow and said, ‘Sorry, joke’s on me, it all goes away,’ it will take us several quarters to unwind the damage that’s already happened,” she said. “So, for me, that says recession.”

Why A Recession Might Not Happen

On the other end of the spectrum is Allen Sinai of Decision Economics, who gives only a 20% chance of a recession in the next 12 months. That’s an increase from the 10% chance he saw in January, but still a relatively remote possibility.

Chief among Sinai’s reasons for optimism is the job market, which has stayed consistently resilient ever since bouncing back from the mass layoffs caused by the COVID-19 lockdowns. The unemployment rate was 4.2% in March, not far from historic lows and nowhere near indicating an economic downturn.

“We’re fully employed right now,” he said. “The jobs count is fine.”

Sinai also sees green flags in data about consumer spending, the pillar of the economy, responsible for 68% of the gross domestic product. Retail sales soared in March, recovering from a dip in January and a lukewarm February, although economists attributed some of the surge to people racing to make purchases before tariffs drive up prices.

A main point of contention between recession optimists and pessimists is what to make of consumer sentiment data. Consumer surveys show that people have been increasingly worried about inflation, the health of the job market, and their own financial situations in recent months. If people pull back on spending, it could spell trouble for the economy.

However, that shoe has yet to drop, and in the meantime, Sinai sees few signs that either the financial system or the job market is buckling.

“It takes financial trouble in the system to shut off funds or the jobs market caves for one reason or another,” he said.

Consumers may say they are worried about the direction of the economy, but March’s retail sales report shows that didn’t keep them from spending.

U.S. retail sales in March jumped by 1.4% over the prior month, as Census Bureau data showed consumers rushed out to buy cars, building materials and sporting goods. It’s the biggest monthly increase since January 2023.

“We got a much stronger retail sales report than we have seen in a long time,” said Scott Anderson, chief U.S. economist at BMO Economics. “Tariff front-running clearly helped lift retail sales to a whole new level of growth last month.”

The strong results come amid a weak start of the year for the retail sector, which saw sales unexpectedly decline in January and rebound only modestly in February. 

As Expected, Auto Sales Lead March Increases

Economists expected to see an increase in sales last month as consumers moved to make big-ticket purchases in advance of tariffs that will likely create significant price increases.

Much of the 5.3% monthly jump in automobile sales in March likely came after President Donald Trump announced tariffs that will likely push up car prices, including a 25% tax on all automobile imports.

“Some households are getting major purchases in before tariffs bite,”  wrote Wells Fargo economists Tim Quinlan and Shannon Grein. “Vehicles are moving off dealer lots faster than at any time since the post-pandemic demand surge earlier this decade.”

Report Shows Consumers Still Willing to Spend

While consumers working to get ahead of tariffs accounted for some spending, economists said the report showed there was still underlying strength in retail sales. Despite recent sentiment surveys that showed growing pessimism over the state of the economy, consumers are still willing to spend.

“Once again, consumer spending is managing to avoid the gravitational pull of all the negative dynamics that might otherwise hold it back,” Wells Fargo’s economists wrote.

Taking out automobile purchases, retail sales rose a more modest 0.5%, down from February but better than expectations. Sales also rose despite a steep decline in gasoline station transactions as fuel prices remained low. Plus, economists were encouraged to see a 1.8% increase in restaurant and bar sales.

Wells Fargo said it was a key signal that “while spending may be slowing, consumers have not gone into hiding when it comes to discretionary spending.” 

However, Sales Could Still Slow as Tariffs Take Hold

The report covers sales before President Donald Trump’s April 2 announcement of “reciprocal” tariffs, which created more market volatility and further deteriorated consumer confidence.  

Consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, making retail sales a key indicator of ongoing strength. Strong consumer spending helped boost the economy when analysts were anticipating a recession in 2023 that ultimately never emerged.

However, some economists are questioning whether consumer spending can maintain its strength in the face of continued uncertainty surrounding tariffs. 

“We may see another month or two of strong retail sales, but frontloading will eventually end,” Nationwide Financial Markets Economist Oren Klachkin. “Looking ahead, consumers are set to face an array of challenges that will make it hard to sustain robust spending.”

Prospective homebuyers face significant challenges in the modern housing market, from rising home prices and limited inventory to stubbornly high interest rates. As a result, a whopping 76% of consumers believe it’s a bad time to buy a home.

In such a challenging market, your network can provide a much-needed advantage, helping you secure valuable referrals and uncover hidden opportunities. Let’s explore how to make the most of your personal and professional connections during your house-hunting journey.

Opportunities Your Network Can Open Up

Traditional house-hunting methods—like partnering with a local real estate agent and browsing public listings—can help find you a home, but they may not always lead you to the best opportunities. Agents who don’t have a personal connection to you may not prioritize your needs, and public listings often bring stiff competition.

Your personal and professional connections could be the key to unlocking more—and potentially better—options. Here are some of the most significant homebuying opportunities your network can open up:

• Off-market listings: Also known as pocket listings, some properties for sale aren’t listed on the multiple listing service (MLS). These homes can offer benefits to buyers, such as lower competition and more room for negotiation.
• Reliable agents: Your real estate agent can make or break your house hunt, and personal recommendations often help you find the best ones. An agent from your network may work harder for you than one you have no relationship with.
• Local insights: If you’re looking to buy in a new area, connecting with locals can help you gain a better understanding of the neighborhood through their perspective on matters like safety, schools, and new developments.
• Seller goodwill: A connection to a home seller or their agent can create goodwill. That may help you beat out other offers, negotiate more easily, and secure more favorable terms, such as a flexible financing arrangement or lower price.

Networking Tips for Your House Hunt

Here are some tips to help you leverage your social network in your house hunt.

Publicize Your Journey

Start by letting people know you’re looking for a home and asking them to reach out if they come across any opportunities that might be a good fit. Mention it in conversations with your friends, family, and professional acquaintances. If appropriate, consider bringing it up during casual interactions in your current or target neighborhood.

Social media can also help spread the word. In addition to announcing the start of your journey, post regular updates about your search, such as what you’re looking for or challenges you’re facing. That may encourage your network to engage with your efforts and increase the chances of someone providing valuable insights or recommendations.

Expand Your Network

Your existing network is a great place to start your house hunt, but broadening your connections can unlock even more opportunities. Consider attending real estate networking events or investor meetups in your target area. These types of gatherings may put you in contact with agents, brokers, investors, and homeowners, who could have valuable insights or leads.

Digital platforms can also help expand your network. Join local Nextdoor groups, where members discuss their neighborhoods, including events like home sales. Specialized forums like BiggerPockets and real estate communities on platforms like Facebook and Reddit can be another great source of opportunities.

Engage on Social Media

Don’t stop at connecting with or following new people on social media. Actively engage with their content—especially real estate-related posts—by liking and leaving thoughtful comments. That increases your visibility and helps establish you as a serious buyer. The more familiar your name becomes, the more likely people are to think of you when they come across a relevant opportunity.

In addition to interacting with public content, initiate direct conversations. For example, if an agent or seller posts about a listing that appeals to you, reach out to express your interest and request more details. Even simply reaching out to a real estate professional for advice—such as their opinion on market trends or a specific neighborhood—can help you build rapport and may develop into an opportunity. 

Mine Relevant Hashtags

Monitoring real estate hashtags can be an efficient way to sift through social media content. Private sellers and real estate agents often use tags on platforms like Instagram and TikTok to market their listings. Search for general real estate terms—such as #OffMarketListing, #PocketListing, or #ForSaleByOwner—to discover homes that may not be on the MLS yet.

Localized hashtags can help refine your search. For example, if you’re looking for a home in your favorite neighborhoods of Austin, you could combine hashtags like #SouthCongress or #EastAustin with your generalized hashtags to produce results that align with your ideal location.

Look for Underutilized Groups

It’s easy to focus on close friends, family, and real estate agents, but you may be missing valuable networking opportunities. Think outside the box and try to find knowledgeable people you might have overlooked.

For example, consider reaching out to:

• Recent homebuyers: Those who recently bought a home often have valuable insights. For example, they might recommend quality properties that didn’t quite work for them or connect you with an agent who gave them exclusive deals.
• Property managers: Property managers oversee multiple rental properties and may know when landlords struggle to turn a profit or start to consider selling. They could alert you to potential off-market opportunities.
• Home service professionals: Contractors, landscapers, and house cleaners work directly with homeowners and often know when a client is preparing to sell. Like property managers, they could offer early insight into upcoming listings.
• Local business owners: Community-facing professionals like coffee shop owners and barbers interact with many residents daily. They often hear about people planning to move and may provide useful tips or connections.

The Bottom Line

Your social network can be one of your most valuable assets when searching for a home. By making your intentions known and expanding your connections—including to groups others may overlook—you can uncover hidden opportunities, such as off-market listings or agents willing to bring you exclusive deals.

In addition to discussing your house hunt in person, share your journey on social media and engage with others in online real estate spaces. Stay visible and involved so your network keeps you in mind when promising opportunities arise. That may give you the edge you need in today’s competitive homebuying market.

Written by the Market Insights Team

Loonie slips on softer March inflation

Kevin Ford – FX & Macro Strategist

The Government of Canada bond curve saw gains at the short end, while the Canadian dollar weakened, following the release of March inflation data that came in lower than anticipated. Canada’s annual inflation rate fell to 2.3% in March 2025, down from the eight-month high of 2.6% recorded in February. This was below both market expectations of 2.6% and the Bank of Canada’s forecast of 2.5%.

The decline in inflation can largely be attributed to temporary factors, including a drop in gasoline prices (-0.3 percentage points) and reduced travel service costs (-0.3 percentage points). However, these drivers may not persist in the near term. In contrast, the expiration of the GST holiday added upward pressure on food prices, rising 3.2% compared to 1.3% previously, partially offsetting the overall decline. Restaurant costs were a significant contributor to this increase, jumping 3.2% following a decline of 1.4% in the prior period. Month-over-month, overall prices inched up by 0.3% from February to March.

Despite these fluctuations, the year-over-year trend for core CPI is encouraging. It has steadily eased from 2.9% a year ago to 2.3% in March. This downward trajectory suggests that underlying inflation is nearing the Bank of Canada’s target, providing some reassurance as the economy navigates challenges, including the trade war with the U.S.

Another important signal comes from the domestic demand front. Recreation services experienced a significant 2.1% month-over-month decline—marking the third steepest drop on record. Shelter costs, once a key driver of inflation, have now cooled for the second consecutive month, with rents and mortgage interest costs showing particularly subdued growth at under 0.2%. Shelter accounts for 30% of the total weight in Canada’s CPI basket, followed by Transportation (17%) and Food (16%), making this deceleration noteworthy for investors tracking inflation trends.

Following the CPI data release, the probability of a BoC rate cut has edged up slightly to 41%. However, markets anticipate a pause after seven consecutive cuts, giving policymakers time to evaluate the impact of tariffs on growth and inflation. Looking ahead to the BoC’s June meeting, expectations for a 25-basis-point cut remain high, with probabilities standing at 85%.

Trade uncertainty weighs on US assets

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

Risk-off moves are picking up once again as global equity markets turn lower and the US dollar extends its drop – trading at about the lowest level in three years. President Donald Trump urged China to initiate negotiations to address the escalating trade conflict between the world’s two largest economies. In response, China reportedly instructed airlines to halt further deliveries of Boeing Co. jets, marking its latest retaliatory move against Trump’s decision to impose tariffs of up to 145% on Chinese goods. The Trump administration then imposed new restrictions on Nvidia’s chip exports to China. These developments underscore the deepening standoff between the US and China, with no resolution in sight as both nations continue to raise trade barriers to unprecedented levels.

Market volatility has cooled off this week, but this does not signal that the critical issues facing investors have been resolved. Instead, trade uncertainty has surged to previously unimaginable heights, surpassing levels seen before “liberation day”. Overall US policy uncertainty also remains elevated and the adage that markets despise uncertainty remains frustratingly accurate – the current climate exemplifies this sentiment to an extreme degree.

Data from the US yesterday revealed companies’ expectations for business activity six months ahead plunged in April to its lowest since 2001, according to the Empire State manufacturing survey, while price increases — both actual and expected — became more widespread.

US assets, including the dollar, continue to carry a notable risk premium amid growing investor caution. The traditional correlation between the dollar and Treasury yields has reached its weakest point in three years, reflecting heightened doubts about the safety of US assets during periods of economic stress. The dollar’s rapid decline has been driven by capital flight from US markets, as fears grow that the Trump administration’s trade war could tip the economy into a recession.

Yields on US long-term debt remain near 17-month highs. Typically, higher bond yields bolster the dollar; however, the dynamics have diverged this time. Scepticism about the dollar’s haven appeal and its central role in the global financial system is causing this decoupling.

Pacey euro appreciation to force ECB’s hand

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

The euro resumed its rally against the US dollar this morning, though it remains in overbought territory based on the daily relative strength index. While the broader outlook favors the euro in the medium term as funds shift away from the dollar, the European Central Bank (ECB) may act to slow its appreciation with a rate cut expected tomorrow.

EUR/USD has surged approximately 5% this month, reaching fresh three-year highs, while EUR/CNY has climbed 6% since the March ECB meeting, hitting a decade high. The depreciation of the Chinese yuan relative to the euro raises questions about its potential to further support China’s exports to the EU, especially as US-China trade is set to decline sharply due to tariffs. President Trump’s ongoing tariff negotiations aim to pressure US trading partners to limit their dealings with China, a move Europe might consider given its growing trade deficit with China since 2020.

The ECB is widely anticipated to cut rates by 25 basis points on 17 April, citing intensified growth risks linked to US tariffs. While rates may be nearing neutral, further tariff-driven cuts remain possible. That said, the correlation between FX and rate differentials has evaporated since “liberation day” and the ongoing rotation from US to European assets could mean that EUR/USD will remains supported around $1.13 even if the ECB leans dovish.

On the macroeconomic front, investor confidence in Germany’s economy has plummeted amid the escalating trade war. The ZEW institute’s expectations index fell sharply to -14 in April from 51.6 the previous month, highlighting the growing uncertainty surrounding global trade dynamics.

Pound mixed after slower inflation

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

The pound remains strong versus the US dollar but under pressure against the euro after lower-than-expected UK inflation data provided temporary relief for the Bank of England (BoE), which is preparing for the economic fallout of Trump’s tariffs.

Headline inflation came in at 2.6%, while services inflation – a key indicator for BoE policymakers – declined more than anticipated, falling to 4.7% in March from 5% in February. However the dip in inflation may only be short-lived. Rising household bills and higher business costs are expected to drive inflation higher from April onwards. Thus, the BoE faces a challenging task as it balances a weakening jobs market against the likelihood of rising inflation later this year, partially fueled by escalating living costs.

The pound has gained ground versus the dollar, eying $1.33, but remains on the back foot against the euro. As a reserve currency, sterling is part of the broader devaluation of the dollar. However, the euro benefits from higher liquidity and significant repatriation of financial assets into the Eurozone, supported by its large trade surplus with the US.

Overall, sterling’s 2.8% monthly gain against the dollar reflects dollar weakness rather than inherent pound strength. The pound has lost ground against six of its G10 peers, gaining only against three. A genuine sterling rally would show broader strength, particularly against the euro. Instead, sterling has underperformed the euro, amidst elevated volatility, mirroring its behaviour during the pandemic’s initial wave. As volatility eases, the pound could recover ground versus the common currency, supported by the UK’s relative resilience to tariffs and stabilized demand-side data.

Gold is up 7% in the last week

Table: 7-day currency trends and trading ranges

Key global risk events

Calendar: April 14-17

All times are in ET

Have a question? [email protected]

*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.

Nvidia (NVDA) said it expects to take a $5.5 billion charge in its fiscal 2026 first-quarter results after the U.S. limited exports of its artificial intelligence (AI) chips to China.

The news, the latest salvo in an escalating trade war between Washington and Beijing, sent the firm’s shares tumbling roughly 6% in premarket trading Wednesday.

The company said in a regulatory filing late Tuesday that it was informed by the U.S. government on April 9 that it would be required to have an export license “for the indefinite future” to sell its H20 chips to China. Nvidia said the license requirement is aimed at addressing the risk that the chip would be “used in, or diverted to, a supercomputer in China.” The chip is less powerful than its newer ones and tailored to meet existing export limits for the Chinese market.

Nvidia’s Q1 results, which are expected May 28, are set to include the $5.5 billion charge “associated with H20 products for inventory, purchase commitments, and related reserves,” it said. According to Morningstar Research, “China has shrunk to about 10% of Nvidia’s revenue from 20%, and we now expect it to go to close to zero.”

The New York Times reported that a spokesman for the U.S. Commerce Department said “that the administration was issuing new export licensing requirements for the Nvidia H20; a chip from Advanced Micro Devices, the MI308; and their equivalents.” AMD (AMD) shares also were down about 6% in premarket trading.

CORRECTION-April 16, 2025: This article has been corrected to note the U.S. Commerce Department has also imposed export controls on AMD’s sales of its AI chips in China. 

​Rexas Finance (RXS) is drawing investor attention as it mirrors Shiba Inu’s early rise but with real-world value. The platform’s asset-backed token model positions RXS as a promising contender for long-term stability and real gains. With over $47 million raised and a Certik audit completed, Rexas Finance offers more than hype—it offers substance.

RXS Presale Success & Tokenomics: Strong Growth Indicators

Rexas Finance continues to gain momentum with a presale that has already reached over 91% completion across twelve stages. The current capital raised stands at more than $47 million, showing strong investor interest and trust. The ongoing token sale aims to reach a $56 million goal, indicating potential market strength. The project has a total supply of one billion RXS tokens, with 42.5% allocated to the presale. An additional 22.5% supports staking incentives, encouraging long-term investor participation in the ecosystem. The remaining supply supports liquidity, partnerships, and ecosystem development, maintaining a structured and balanced token economy. Unlike speculative tokens, Rexas Finance applies strategic allocation to support both short-term liquidity and long-term utility. The treasury holds 10% of tokens for platform expansion, while 5% is reserved for the team and partners. This structure shows a clear plan for sustainable growth and market engagement.

SHIB’s Market Trajectory and Volatility

Shiba Inu gained popularity through community support and speculative growth, leading to sudden price spikes and frequent volatility. While early investors saw high returns, many late entrants faced sharp losses due to market swings. The lack of tangible asset backing made SHIB’s growth heavily reliant on hype cycles. Although Shiba Inu built a strong following, its utility remains limited to meme value and short-term market trends. The token lacks real-world investment channels, making long-term stability difficult to achieve in comparison to asset-backed tokens. Investors are now seeking platforms that combine security with sustainable returns. This is where Rexas Finance stands apart, as it reduces volatility through real-world asset exposure and DeFi integration. Its presale success and strategic development suggest a more reliable growth trajectory than meme-driven tokens like SHIB. The RXS model aligns with evolving investor preferences for value and utility.

Why Rexas Finance Offers a New Investment Opportunity

Rexas Finance allows users to access fractional ownership in high-value assets like real estate, gold, and corporate bonds. These markets traditionally required significant capital and institutional access, but RXS opens them up to everyday investors. The platform improves liquidity and transparency through blockchain tokenization. 

In addition, Rexas Finance provides tools like a Token Builder, Launchpad, DEX, and real estate DApp to expand its DeFi reach. These tools support ecosystem development and user empowerment, increasing engagement and long-term participation. The platform’s roadmap signals a move toward full-featured decentralized financial services. Security remains a priority, with Rexas Finance passing a full Certik audit to build trust among retail and institutional investors. This combination of security, utility, and real-world value makes RXS a standout project in the crypto landscape. Investors looking for growth beyond meme coins are shifting their attention to Rexas Finance.

Rexas Finance: A Stronger Alternative in a Changing Market

Rexas Finance is gaining attention as SHIB’s early price action seems to repeat—but now with a more practical investment model. RXS gives investors access to real assets while offering the growth potential of crypto, setting a new benchmark for blockchain investments. As SHIB struggles with utility, RXS surges ahead with real-world impact. With its presale nearing completion and features like staking, token creation, and real estate investment, Rexas continues to expand. The platform supports the mainstream adoption of tokenized assets and appeals to users looking for long-term gains. Its balanced tokenomics and growing ecosystem present a compelling case for adoption. Rexas Finance is not just another crypto—it is a transformative platform that bridges traditional finance and blockchain. As the market matures, investor interest is shifting toward secure and utility-driven projects. 

Website: https://rexas.com

Whitepaper: https://rexas.com/rexas-whitepaper.pdf

Twitter/X: https://x.com/rexasfinance

Telegram: https://t.me/rexasfinance ​

Disclaimer: The views and opinions presented in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of CoinCheckup. The content of this article should not be considered as investment advice. Always do your own research before deciding to buy, sell or transfer any crypto assets. Past returns do not always guarantee future profits.

Consumers, businesses, and even the prospects for U.S. manufacturing are all likely to become casualties in the escalating trade war between the U.S. and China, trade experts say. 

Last week, the president shifted tariffs to temporarily take some of the pressure off of other countries while punishing China, which has retaliated against the U.S. with tariffs of its own. As of Monday, China faced a tariff of 145% on its products, with a temporary reprieve for electronic devices.

Economists predicted the trade war between the world’s two largest economies would have serious consequences for American consumers and workers.

The Price of Import Taxes

The tariffs, which started this month, could quickly increase the prices shoppers see at popular online and brick-and-mortar retailers.

“Most of the things you might see on the inside of the store at a Target or a Walmart or on Amazon, I think we would expect significant price increases pretty immediately,” said Christopher Conlon, an associate professor of economics at the Stern School of Business at New York University.

Clothing, toys, and plastic items with small electronics in them (such as vacuums, toasters, and small appliances) will likely be among the first products to see immediate price increases. Conlon estimated about 50% to 60% of Amazon’s offerings would be affected, and many would rise by about the same amount as the tariffs.

Conlon had some advice for consumers that economists don’t usually give: it might make sense to buy certain items before prices go up.

“If you have the cash on hand and you’re really worried about buying some of these things, it might not be the worst idea to stock up on them,” he said, noting that big-ticket items that last a long time, like appliances, would make the most sense to buy now. “The big caveat is, of course, next week, we could be having a completely different conversation about tariffs because this situation is evolving very quickly.”

Will the Cost Be Worth It?

Eventually, manufacturers could adapt to the tariffs by moving production out of China to countries like Vietnam or Mexico, which have lower tariff rates, at least for the time being, Conlon said.

But could all the short-term pain result in long-term gain? The tariffs are meant to restore U.S. manufacturing to its glory days after WWII, when America, not China, was the world’s factory, by encouraging businesses to set up plants in the U.S. rather than abroad.

There are a few obstacles standing in the way of that outcome, said Sina Golara, assistant professor of supply chain and operations management at Georgia State University’s Robinson College of Business.

For one thing, even as high as the tariffs are, it still might be more cost-effective to manufacture many things in China than in the U.S., Golara said. Companies hoping to set up in the U.S. would have to not only build a factory but also replicate the infrastructure and supply networks that have been built up over decades. On top of that, U.S. workers are paid more than their Chinese counterparts, adding to production costs.

“The cost gap is so much that even tariffs being as high as they are today would still not make it expensive enough to be worth moving everything to the United States,” Golara said.

In addition, the tariffs themselves are an obstacle because they make it more expensive for a factory located in the U.S. to import parts and materials from other countries.

What Is The Best Outcome From This Trade War?

Another headwind for the U.S. economy is that China has some leverage to harm American consumers and companies with its own trade policies.

China could cut off imports from U.S. companies and stop exports of certain important minerals used in advanced manufacturing, of which China is the main or only supplier, Conlon said.

Experts said the best possible outcome of the showdown for the economy would be if both sides reached a deal to lower tariffs on one another. However, the sprawling nature of Trump’s trade war complicates that task, as does the pattern of on-again, off-again tariff announcements.

“There’s another case where you engage in a war, and then you just dial back half of your tariffs,” Golara said. “In that case, you’re really hurting everyone, except you’re hurting everyone else a little bit more … it’s kind of like a mutual destruction tool.”

The states with the cheapest 30-year mortgage refinance rates Monday were California, New York, Texas, Florida, Utah, Alabama, and Georgia. The seven states registered averages between 6.98% and 7.20%.

Meanwhile, the states with the highest Monday refinance rates were Alaska, West Virginia, South Dakota, Kentucky, South Carolina, Montana, Washington, D.C., and Wyoming. The range of 30-year refi averages for these states was 7.29% to 7.35%.

Mortgage refinance rates vary by the state where they originate. Different lenders operate in different regions, and rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average loan size, and regulations. Lenders also have varying risk management strategies that influence the rates they offer.

Since rates vary widely across lenders, it’s always smart to shop around for your best mortgage option and compare rates regularly, no matter the type of home loan you seek.

National Mortgage Refinance Rate Averages

Rates for 30-year refinance mortgages dropped 8 basis points Monday to a 7.23% national average—reversing course after surging 40 basis points over the previous week. Friday’s 7.31% reading was the highest average for 30-year refi rates since July 2024.

Last month, in contrast, 30-year refi rates sank to 6.71%, their cheapest average of 2025. And back in September, 30-year rates plunged to a two-year low of 6.01%.

Netflix can survive an uncertain economic environment, according to Oppenheimer’s bullish analysts.

The bank on Monday reiterated its Outperform rating for Netflix (NLFX) shares. The stock, aided by a news report discussing the streaming giant’s plans to continue growing, has jumped today. Bank of America analysts, meanwhile, reiterated their own bullish rating and target.

Oppenheimer analysts ahead of Netflix’s next round of quarterly results, due later this week, said the company should be insulated from the effects of tariffs and economic unease. Consumers tend to value television more highly during recessions when they spend more time at home, the analysts wrote. Meanwhile, Oppenheimer wrote, Netflix’s latest round of price increases has already arrived, meaning it has “been digested” by consumers.

The investment bank’s $1,150 price target is among the highest on Wall Street, above the mean target of $1,097, according to Visible Alpha. Most of the analysts tracked by Visible Alpha have “buy” or equivalent ratings on the shares, which were recently up about 6% to roughly $988.

Bank of America reiterated a “buy” rating and $1,175 target, citing “ample runway for continued growth driven by further subscriber additions along with more monetization opportunities (both via pricing and advertising) and a significant ramp in operating income.”

Netflix is slated to report its 2025 first quarter earnings on Thursday.