Archives June 2025

The job market likely slowed down but kept rolling in May, according to forecasters.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ widely watched report Friday is likely to show the U.S. economy added 125,000 jobs in May, a slowdown from the unexpectedly high 177,000 in April, according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.2%, the same as the month prior.

Experts have been watching economic data for signs that President Donald Trump’s tariff campaign is hurting job creation and pushing up inflation, but so far neither has happened. A jobs report in line with expectations would indicate the economy has weathered the tariffs and the uncertainty about them, at least so far.

“At present, there are no obvious signs of a meaningful deterioration in the labor market,” Brett Ryan, senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a commentary.

The job market has stayed resilient over the past few years despite a series of upheavals, including the post-pandemic surge of inflation, and the Federal Reserve cranking up interest rates in response. The economy has added jobs every month since December 2020. Still, the pace of job creation and the number of job openings have dropped significantly since mid-2022, when workers were in unusually high demand.

Trump’s trade wars could end the job market’s winning streak. Many economists expect consumer prices to rise and employment to suffer more as the summer goes on, and merchants pass on the cost of the tariffs imposed in April to customers. Some forecasters expect the tariffs to hit the economy harder and sooner: economists at Nomura called for only 110,000 jobs to be created in May.

“Lead indicators for the labor market have deteriorated, and risks are skewed to the downside amid broader signs of slowing growth momentum,” Jeremy Schwartz, analyst for Nomura, wrote in a commentary.

The jobs report could be consequential for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions in the coming months. The Fed has held interest rates steady this year as officials wait to see whether the tariffs will reignite inflation, spur unemployment, or both. A surge of layoffs could pressure the Fed to cut interest rates, which would lower borrowing costs on all kinds of loans, giving a boost to the economy and encouraging hiring.

How much would the job market have to slow down to make the Fed cut interest rates? Monthly job creation in the low 100,000s or high five-figure range likely wouldn’t do it, the Nomura economists said.

“Forward-looking risks to the labor market are skewed to the downside, but with the unemployment rate remaining stable and few signs of widespread layoffs, policymakers are unlikely to become concerned about an imminent deterioration,” Schwartz wrote.

Editor’s note: “How to Build Wealth in a Volatile Stock Market” was previously published in March 2025 with the title, “Beyond the Ups and Downs: Building Wealth in a Volatile Stock Market.” It has since been updated to include the most relevant information available.

The stock market has been anything but steady in early 2025. Since Donald Trump took office as the 47th President of the United States in late January, investors have endured a dizzying ride.

At first, markets stayed quiet—flat for about a month. But that calm quickly turned into chaos.

From mid-February to mid-March, the S&P 500 plunged 10% in just 20 trading days. Analysts blamed growing fears that Trump would ignite a global trade war. Those fears were realized on April 2, when Trump launched his “Liberation Day” tariffs. The move triggered a historic two-day, 10% drop in the index—marking the fifth-worst two-day crash on record.

Then came the snapback.

One week later, Trump announced a 90-day pause on those same tariffs. The market roared back. The S&P 500 surged 9.5% in a single session—the start of a massive 20% rebound over the next month.

In just 90 days, stocks had crashed 20%, then fully rebounded. That kind of volatility hasn’t been seen since the pandemic era, and it’s reshaping how investors think about political risk and policy shockwaves in 2025.

This has been arguably the most volatile and violent stock market ever. And given that Trump has been the trigger – and that he will be in the White House for the next four years – investors are naturally asking themselves:

Is this intense volatility Wall Street’s ‘new normal’?

It may be… 

A Bumpy Ride Higher: Why We Expect Stock Market Uncertainty to Continue

Don’t get me wrong. I think stocks are going higher over the next few years. 

We’re somewhere in the middle of the AI Boom. Tech booms like these tend to last five to six years or longer. Just look at the Dot Com Boom, which started in 1995 and lasted through 1999 – five years of strong gains. The Nasdaq Composite rose about 582% during that time, while the S&P nearly tripled. 

This AI Boom started in 2023. I think we have another two to three years of exceptional growth left in AI stocks. And that growth should drive the whole market higher.

However… I don’t think it’ll be a smooth ride higher…  

Largely because of U.S. President Donald Trump, who promises to change a lot of things. 

He wants to renegotiate trade deals and restructure global trade, rethink America’s global military presence, and cut federal spending. He wants to reduce taxes, expand America’s borders, and reshore manufacturing activity, among other things. 

Clearly, he aims to change a lot. 

Now, I won’t offer an argument as to whether these proposed changes are good, bad, or neutral. 

But I will state the obvious: It’s a lot of change. And change is uncomfortable – especially for investors… 

Because change equals uncertainty. That doesn’t mean this policy shakeup won’t push stocks higher in the long term. It may. 

It simply means that, along the way, stocks will continue to be volatile – just like they’ve been over the past few months.

Today, June 2, the United States Mint began shipping 2025 Dr. Vera Rubin quarters to Federal Reserve Banks and their coin terminals for distribution into circulation. This coin marks the third of five unique quarter designs for this year and the eighteenth overall in the U.S. Mint’s American Women Quarters™ Program.

At the start of the four-year, 20-coin series in 2022, the trailblazers honored were Maya Angelou, Dr. Sally Ride, Wilma Mankiller, Nina Otero-Warren, and Anna May Wong. Quarters released in 2023 extended the celebration of the accomplishments and contributions made by American women by honoring Bessie Coleman, Edith Kanakaʻole, Eleanor Roosevelt, Jovita Idar, and Maria Tallchief. The 2024 quarters pay tribute to Rev. Dr. Pauli Murray, Patsy Takemoto Mink, Dr. Mary Edwards Walker, Celia Cruz, and Zitkala-Ša. In addition to Dr. Vera Rubin, quarters for 2025 celebrate Ida B. Wells, Juliette Gordon Low, Stacey Park Milbern, and Althea Gibson.

Dr. Vera Rubin (1928–2016) was an American astronomer best known for her pioneering work on galaxy rotation rates, which provided critical evidence for the existence of dark matter.

“The data on dark matter from dozens of galaxies that Rubin presented to the International Astronomical Union in 1985 ultimately changed scientific conceptions of the universe and opened new paths in both astronomy and physics,” noted Kristie McNally, the Mint’s Acting Director.

The new quarter’s reverse (tails side) shows Dr. Vera Rubin in profile, smiling as she looks upward in contemplation of the cosmos. A spiral galaxy and surrounding celestial bodies frame the scene. Inscriptions include “DR. VERA RUBIN,” “QUARTER DOLLAR,” “E PLURIBUS UNUM,” and “UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,” with “DARK MATTER” appearing along the bottom.

This image was designed by Artist Infusion Program designer Christina Hess and sculpted by Mint Medallic Artist John P. McGraw.

“Dr. Rubin’s story exemplifies strength, dedication, and determination, and it was a great honor to illustrate her portrait and legacy,” said Hess. “By positioning her portrait off-center and toward the upper right, I aimed to move the audience’s gaze upward, symbolizing exploration beyond the coin’s boundaries, evoking a sense of infinite possibility and continuous motion.”

“Vera Rubin was an American astronomer and genius,” said McGraw. “Layering her portrait with the galaxy in the background made for a fun and challenging sculpt. I feel honored that I was given the opportunity to memorialize her and her contributions to science on a coin.”

The obverse (heads side) of every American Women Quarter features a common design – a portrait of George Washington. Sculpted by Laura Gardin Fraser more than 90 years ago, the image was originally created to commemorate Washington’s 200th birthday.

Quarters for circulation are produced at U.S. Mint production facilities in Philadelphia and Denver.

On Tuesday, June 3, the U.S. Mint will offer circulating quality Dr. Vera Rubin quarters to the public via their website at https://catalog.usmint.gov. These quarters will be offered in three different product options:

• a set of two rolls for $42,
• a set of three rolls for $63, and
• 100-coin bags at $47.25 apiece.

Notably, the three-roll set includes a roll of quarters from the San Francisco Mint, offering a unique level of rarity since, unlike those from Philadelphia and Denver, these quarters are not released into general circulation.

The states with the cheapest 30-year mortgage refinance rates Friday were New York, California, Colorado, Florida, Connecticut, North Carolina, Virginia, Illinois, and Texas. The nine low-rate states registered refi averages between 6.96% and 7.16%.

Meanwhile, the states with Friday’s most expensive 30-year refinance rates were Alaska, West Virginia, Hawaii, South Dakota, Missouri, Montana, New Hampshire, North Dakota, and Wyoming. The range of 30-year refi averages for the highest-rate states was 7.25% to 7.28%.

Mortgage refinance rates vary by the state where they originate. Different lenders operate in different regions, and rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average loan size, and regulations. Lenders also have varying risk management strategies that influence the rates they offer.

Since rates vary widely across lenders, it’s always smart to shop around for your best mortgage option and compare rates regularly, no matter the type of home loan you seek.

National Mortgage Refinance Rate Averages

Rates for 30-year refinance mortgages edged up a single basis point Friday, for a 7.20% average that remains near a two-week low. It’s an improvement vs. the prior week’s 7.32% reading, which was the highest average in 10 months.

Back in March, however, 30-year refinance rates sank to a 6.71% average, their cheapest level of 2025. And last September, rates plunged to a two-year low of 6.01%.

During these busy times, it pays to stay on top of the latest profit opportunities. And today’s blog post should be a great place to start. After taking a close look at the latest data on institutional buying pressure and each company’s fundamental health, I decided to revise my Stock Grader recommendations for 106 big blue chips. Chances are that you have at least one of these stocks in your portfolio, so you may want to give this list a skim and act accordingly.

Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/market360/2025/06/20250602-blue-chip-upgrades-downgrades/.

©2025 InvestorPlace Media, LLC

The global airline industry is expected to generate in profit this year than previously thought, the International Air Transport Association said Monday. 

The IATA trimmed its net profit estimate for the industry to $36 billion in 2025 down from its prior forecast of $36.6 billion from December, citing trade tension and declining consumer confidence. The revised figure is still higher than the $32.4 billion earned in 2024. 

“The first half of 2025 has brought significant uncertainties to global markets,” the IATA said. “Nonetheless, by many measures including net profits, it will still be a better year for airlines than 2024, although slightly below our previous projections.” The agency said it expects a record 4.99 billion air travelers this year and all-time high revenue of $979 billion. 

The downward revision comes as major U.S. carriers Southwest Airlines (LUV), American Airlines (AAL), and Delta Air Lines (DAL) each withdrew their full-year outlook in April amid economic uncertainty. United Airlines (UAL) offered a pair of earnings forecasts that varied on whether the economy entered a recession.

Shares of American, Delta, and United are each down significantly this year. Southwest shares turned positive last week as the airline introduced changes designed to drive up revenue, including nixing its signature “two bags fly free” policy.

Editor’s note: “Stay Ahead of Stock Market Volatility With An Outperforming Strategy” was previously published in May 2025. It has since been updated to include the most relevant information available.

For the past several months, since it became clear that Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election, the stock market has been highly volatile. 

In that time, we’ve seen:

• One of the fastest 10% drops in market history
  • Following the announcement of the “Liberation Day” tariffs on April 2, the S&P 500 sharply declined, dropping over 12.1% in the subsequent four sessions.
• One of the worst two-day crashes
  • On April 3-4, the market suffered a 10.5% setback, marking the fourth-worst two-day stretch since 1950.
• One of the best single-day rallies
  •  Following President Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause on recently implemented tariffs, the S&P surged 9.5% on April 9, marking its strongest one-day performance since October 2008.
• One of the best win streaks
  • On May 2, the S&P locked in its ninth straight day of gains – the longest winning streak in more than 20 years – rising roughly 10% over that stretch
• One of the highest readings for the volatility index
  • The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often referred to as the market’s “fear gauge,” nearly doubled over six months, reaching a reading of 27.86.

With all this volatility, investors are dying to know what the next four years will look like for stocks under “Trump 2.0.” Is this unpredictability the new normal?

Possibly… 

I have six words of advice for this era: embrace the boom, beware the bust. 

Embrace the Boom; Beware the Bust

Thanks in large part to the AI investment megatrend, the U.S. stock market has been booming for the past two years. 

That is, the craze around artificial intelligence has sparked an exceptional surge in investment. Companies have been racing to create the infrastructure necessary to support next-gen AI. Indeed, Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) – pretty much all the world’s major tech companies continue to spend billions upon billions of dollars to build new AI data centers, create new applications, hire more engineers, etc. And all that investment has created a major economic boom.

The result? Stocks have been soaring for two years. 

From its lows in October 2022 to its peak in early February, the S&P 500 surged more than 70% higher. That is a stellar rally. And it was powered by two consecutive years of greater than 20% gains across the market. 

The S&P rose 24% in 2023. It popped another 23% in ’24. That is just the fourth time since the Great Depression – nearly 100 years ago – that the index rallied more than 20% in back-to-back years. 

We were unequivocally in a stock market boom. 

And in our view, this boom is about to get even ‘boomier.’ 

Meta Platforms (META) is reportedly planning to allow brands to use artificial intelligence to fully make and target ads by the end of next year.

According to The Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the matter, Meta is creating ad tools that would allow brands to “present an image of the product it wants to promote along with a budgetary goal, and AI would create the entire ad, including imagery, video and text.” The system would also pick the Instagram and Facebook users to target and give suggestions on budget, the report said.

Advertising brought in more than 97% of Meta’s overall revenue last year, according to the report. Some brands are worried that the AI-generated ads won’t look or feel the same as ads made by people, the report added. Meta didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Meta said in April that it plans to boost its capital expenditures this year to $64 billion to $72 billion to grow its AI capacity. Meta shares are down slightly at market opening but are up more than 10% so far this year entering Monday.

U.S. stock futures are pointing lower as investors review comments from China that accused the U.S. of undermining the recent trade agreement between the two countries; President Donald Trump said he would double tariffs on steel imports to 50%, sending U.S. steelmaker stocks higher in premarket trading; Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to deliver remarks today; and Blueprint Medicines (BPMC) stock is soaring after French pharmaceutical firm Sanofi (SNY) said it would acquire the U.S. drugmaker. Here’s what investors need to know today.

1. US Stock Futures Fall as Investors Consider China Tariff Comments

U.S. stock futures are pointing lower as investors weigh China’s accusation that the U.S. had undermined a trade agreement between the two countries, potentially inflaming trade tensions. Nasdaq futures are 0.5% lower after the tech-heavy index rose by more than 9% in May for its biggest monthly gain since November 2023. S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% after the benchmark index added more than 6% last month, also its biggest advance since November 2023, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are dipping 0.2%. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is lower, trading at just over $104,000. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is higher. Oil futures are surging roughly 4% and gold futures are up nearly 2% to trade at around $3,375 an ounce.

2. China Accuses US of Undermining Trade Deal in Response to Trump

China on Monday said that the U.S. had introduced measures that “seriously undermine” the trade agreement between the two countries. China’s statement follows remarks from President Donald Trump that accused Beijing of being in violation of the deal struck last month in Geneva. China said that moves by the U.S. to issue export control guidelines for AI chips, stop the sale of chip design software to China, and revoke Chinese student visas were among the violations of the agreement.

3. Trump Says US Will Double Steel Tariffs to 50%

President Trump said Friday that he would double tariffs on steel imports to 50%, sending shares of U.S. steelmaker Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) soaring 25% in premarket trading, while those of Steel Dynamics (STLD) and Nucor (NUE) are jumping around 10%. Tariffs of 25% on steel and aluminum went into effect on March 12, part of Trump’s stated goal of bringing more metal production to the U.S., which imports nearly a quarter of its supplies of steel. The move comes amid Trump’s endorsement of a “partnership” between U.S. Steel (X) and Japan’s Nippon Steel after former President Joe Biden blocked Nippon’s proposed acquisition.

4. Powell Remarks Come as Fed Faces Pressure on Interest Rates

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver remarks today at 1 p.m. ET at an event hosted by the central bank. Powell’s comments come after he met last week with President Trump, who has been pressuring the Fed to lower interest rates, and as price pressures eased again in April. Fed officials have said they are monitoring inflation for signs of price increases from Trump’s tariffs. Powell’s comments follow remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who this weekend said that interest rate cuts could be on the table later this year.

5. Blueprint Medicines Stock Soars as Sanofi Acquires Biotech for More Than $9B

Shares of Blueprint Medicines (BPMC) are soaring 27% in premarket trading as French pharmaceutical firm Sanofi (SNY) said it would acquire the U.S. drugmaker for up to $9.5 billion. The deal would give Sanofi access to Blueprint’s treatment for systemic mastocytosis (SM), a rare immunological disease. “Blueprint’s established presence among allergists, dermatologists, and immunologists is expected to enhance Sanofi’s growing immunology pipeline,” Sanofi said. U.S.-listed shares of Sanofi are down less than 1%.

Written by the Market Insights Team

Temporary boost fuels Canada’s economic expansion

Kevin Ford – FX & Macro Strategist

Canada’s economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.2% in Q1 2025, closely mirroring the revised 2.1% expansion in the previous quarter (down from an initial 2.6%). While this suggests stability on the surface, the underlying factors paint a more nuanced picture. Much of the growth was driven by businesses stockpiling inventories ahead of anticipated tariffs and a sharp uptick in machinery investment, both of which are unlikely to be sustained in the months ahead.

Trade activity also showed signs of softening. Export growth remained positive but was largely fueled by companies front-loading purchases of machinery and autos in preparation for potential disruptions. This means that inventory accumulation and trade, rather than broader economic momentum, were the key drivers of growth.

Meanwhile, household spending weakened noticeably, particularly in services, a stark departure from the robust gains of the past four quarters. Residential investment also took a sharp downturn, reversing much of the late-2024 rebound. Uncertainty around trade policy and broader economic conditions continues to weigh on housing activity.

Non-residential investment remained positive, though growth slowed compared to the previous quarter. A surge in machinery and equipment investment helped offset declines in structural investment, but the sustainability of this trend remains in question.

Looking ahead, while Canada’s economy continues to expand, much of the recent strength has been tied to temporary factors. The downward revision of Q4 2024 growth from 2.6% to 2.1% reinforces a sense of caution. Preliminary data from April suggests the expansion is continuing (+0.1% m/m), but the risk of near-zero growth in the second quarter remains significant.

Can the CAD go 5 in a row?

Kevin Ford – FX & Macro Strategist

The CAD just wrapped up its strongest four-month streak since 2021, closing Friday at 1.373. Will it extend to five months? The last time it posted five consecutive months of gains against the USD was back in April 2020, a similar price pattern that saw it surge to 1.467 before pulling back to 1.30.

What stands between the CAD and next key support at 1.35? The loonie’s 2-year average aligns closely with key support at 1.37, reinforcing its technical significance. Short-term price action continues to be dictated by movements in the US dollar, where persistent bearish positioning remains overstretched. A contrarian view would suggest that the overstretched positioning against the USD is poised for a pause at least, potentially putting a floor on the CAD.

However, as June kicks off, the USD/CAD has hit a fresh 2025 low at 1.3675, testing the 1.37 support level. A decisive daily close below this mark could signal additional weakness in the US dollar.

Meanwhile, President Trump’s recent decision to raise steel and aluminum tariffs injects fresh uncertainty into Canada’s economic outlook. As a leading exporter of both metals to the U.S., Canada could see mounting pressure, potentially dampening broader market sentiment. However, the CAD has largely shrugged off these sector-specific levies, showing little reaction to their immediate impact.

High bar for sustained dollar weakness

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

The initial boost to the US dollar from the Federal Trade Court’s ruling against Trump’s tariffs quickly faded as a federal appeals court granted a stay on the ruling until 9 June, keeping tariffs in place for now. Moreover, markets shifted focus to Section 899 of the “One Big, Beautiful Bill” as US policy uncertainty remains a key overhang.

Adding to renewed trade tensions with China, this could be another growing challenge for the US dollar. Section 899, if passed through the Senate, would allow the US to tax companies and investors from countries deemed to have “unfair foreign taxes”, such as digital services taxes or rules on under-taxed profits. This could effectively act as a capital account tax, at a time when investor confidence in US assets is already shaky. A policy that reduces foreign investors’ returns on US holdings would likely dampen capital inflows, further driving away foreign investors from US assets, including the dollar, already weakened by Trump’s unpredictable trade moves and worsening fiscal conditions.

However, there are still uncertainties around the bill’s final form. It has yet to clear the Senate, and key details remain unresolved. First, it’s unclear if income from US Treasuries will be exempt. Second, S899 would primarily target countries like the EU, UK, Australia, and Canada, while Middle Eastern and Asian nations, home to large global reserves, are seemingly excluded.

Market positioning already reflects broad scepticism toward the dollar, but the scale of additional bearish shifts may be constrained. Traders remain focused on tariff developments, fiscal policy, and global trade negotiations, but much of the negative USD sentiment may be priced in. The dollar’s direction this week will continue to be driven by developments with the court ruling on tariffs, but a slew of economic data will also be key. The May jobs report on Friday will be closely watched, especially for signs of Liberation Day’s impact on hiring and whether DOGE spending cuts are starting to weigh on federal employment.

Euro’s path hinges on ECB and market momentum

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

The European Central Bank’s (ECB) upcoming meeting on Thursday is drawing attention, as recent developments in trade and tariffs have slightly increased the possibility of a pause. However, a downward revision to inflation forecasts and the earlier-than-expected drop in headline inflation to below 2% suggest that the balance is tilting toward a 25 basis-point rate cut. Inflation risks continue to weigh on the outlook, reinforcing expectations for monetary easing.

Eurozone inflation data due on Tuesday is expected to show a decline to 2.0% in the headline print for May. This drop is largely due to falling energy prices and a reversal of last month’s core inflation spike, which had been inflated by Easter-related holiday and leisure costs. With core inflation likely returning to 2.5%, policymakers may see further justification for easing. A rate cut could exert downward pressure on the euro, though much depends on how aggressively markets price in future ECB policy moves.

A dovish ECB, combined with cooling trade tensions and legal battles, could drive EUR/USD lower in the near term. However, the pair has reclaimed its 21-day moving average, which is starting to slope upward, suggesting positive momentum may be rebuilding for the euro. The options market and positioning trends indicate that traders are still favouring euro strength, though short-term volatility remains a risk.

US Dollar DXY index back below 99

Table: 7-day currency trends and trading ranges

Key global risk events

Calendar: June 2-6

All times are in ET

Have a question? [email protected]

*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.