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Just over a week ago, mortgage rates took a large jump higher as the bond market reacted to the possibility that President Trump’s proposed tax bill could become law. Experts say passing the bill could inflate the federal deficit since it would extend substantial tax cuts and boost government spending for years. That mere prospect shot 10-year Treasury yields higher—and in turn, caused a mortgage rate surge.
But in the five market days since, mortgage rates have retreated every day but one, dropping the major new purchase averages back to 3-week and 4-week lows.
Below, you can see the change in rates over the past week for each new purchase loan average. We then dive deeper into 30-year, 15-year, and jumbo 30-year fixed-rate loans.
| Mortgage Type | May 23 averages | May 30 averages | 1-week change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 7.12% | 6.99% | – 0.13 |
| FHA 30-Year Fixed | 7.37% | 7.37% | No change |
| VA 30-Year Fixed | 6.73% | 6.65% | – 0.08 |
| 20-Year Fixed | 7.00% | 6.78% | – 0.22 |
| 15-Year Fixed | 6.10% | 6.01% | – 0.09 |
| FHA 15-Year Fixed | 6.78% | 6.78% | No change |
| 10-Year Fixed | 6.16% | 5.92% | – 0.24 |
| 7/6 ARM | 7.44% | 7.29% | – 0.15 |
| 5/6 ARM | 7.41% | 7.14% | – 0.27 |
| Jumbo 30-Year Fixed | 7.10% | 6.96% | – 0.14 |
| Jumbo 15-Year Fixed | 6.99% | 6.71% | – 0.28 |
| Jumbo 7/6 ARM | 7.66% | 7.41% | – 0.25 |
| Jumbo 5/6 ARM | 7.45% | 7.44% | – 0.01 |
After shooting up to 7.12% to end the week on May 23, rates on 30-year new purchase loans saw their rate momentum shift last week. Retreating 13 points, the flagship average is back down to 6.99%—its cheapest level in three weeks.
However, things were much better in September, when the 30-year average plunged to a two-year low of 5.89% (the cheapest Friday average being 6.03%). So far this year, the lowest weekly reading has been 6.55%.
Rates on 15-year new purchase loans fell a milder 9 basis points last week, dropping to an average of 6.01% on Friday. That’s a full 30 basis points below the 2025 high of 6.31%. But it’s also more than a percentage point above the two-year low of 4.97% registered in September (with a 5.07% low among Friday weekly averages).
Rates on jumbo 30-year new purchase loans fell a bold 14 basis points last week, pushing the average back below the 7% threshold. Friday’s reading of 6.96% is an improvement vs. the 2025 high of 7.15%. In contrast, September rates on new 30-year jumbo loans sank as far as 6.24%, with the lowest weekly average registering at 6.39%.
A jumbo mortgage is one that exceeds the maximum loan limits for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac conforming loans—$806,500 for single-family homes in most parts of the U.S. in 2025, but up to $1,209,750 in certain more expensive areas.
To see how much this week’s rate increases would impact monthly payments for new borrowers, our tables below lay out the principal-plus-interest payment for various loan amounts with a 30-year, 15-year, or jumbo 30-year fixed-rate new purchase mortgage.
| National average rate | $250,000 | $350,000 | $450,000 | $550,000 | $650,000 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, May 23 | 7.12% | $1,683 | $2,357 | $3,030 | $3,704 | $4,377 |
| Fri, May 30 | 6.99% | $1,662 | $2,326 | $2,991 | $3,655 | $4,320 |
| 1-week climb | – 0.13 | – $21 | – $31 | – $39 | – $49 | – $57 |
| National average rate | $250,000 | $350,000 | $450,000 | $550,000 | $650,000 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, May. 23 | 6.10% | $2,123 | $2,972 | $3,822 | $4,671 | $5,520 |
| Fri, May 30 | 6.01% | $2,111 | $2,955 | $3,800 | $4,644 | $5,489 |
| 1-week climb | – 0.09 | – $12 | – $17 | – $22 | – $27 | – $31 |
By definition, jumbo 30-year mortgages are larger loans. So below we’ve run our calculations on loan amounts of $800,000 to $1.2 million.
| National average rate | $800,000 | $900,000 | $1,000,000 | $1,100,000 | $1,200,000 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, May. 23 | 7.10% | $5,376 | $6,048 | $6,720 | $7,392 | $8,064 |
| Fri, May 30 | 6.96% | $5,301 | $5,964 | $6,626 | $7,289 | $7,951 |
| 1-week climb | – 0.14 | – $75 | – $84 | – $94 | – $103 | – $113 |
The national and state averages cited above are provided as is via the Zillow Mortgage API, assuming a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 80% (i.e., a down payment of at least 20%) and an applicant credit score in the 680–739 range. The resulting rates represent what borrowers should expect when receiving quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates. © Zillow, Inc., 2025. Use is subject to the Zillow Terms of Use.
Below you’ll find featured rates available from our partners, followed by details from our ranking of the best CDs available nationwide.
The best CD rate in the country now comes from Technology Credit Union, with a guaranteed 4.65% APY for 6 months. If you lock in today, you could enjoy that rate until early December.
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If you want a longer rate lock and are willing to take a slightly lower APY, you can go with Quorum Federal Credit Union’s 18-month offer at 4.40%, which would extend past Thanksgiving of next year.
Your deposits at any FDIC bank or NCUA credit union are federally insured, meaning you’re protected by the U.S. government in the unlikely case that the institution fails. Not only that, but the coverage is identical—deposits are insured up to $250,000 per person and per institution—no matter the size of the bank or credit union.
For a rate lock you can enjoy for almost two years, PenAir Credit Union is paying 4.40% APY for 21 months, promising its rate until March 2027. Or, stretch your guarantee further by taking a slightly lower APY of 4.32%, available for 30 months from Genisys Credit Union.
Savers who can sock their money away for even longer might like the leading 4-year or 5-year certificates. You can lock in a 4.28% rate for 4 years from Lafayette Federal Credit Union. In fact, Lafayette promises the same 4.28% APY on all its certificates from 7 months through 5 years, letting you secure that rate as far as 2030.
Multiyear CDs are likely smart right now, given the possibility of Fed rate cuts later in 2025, and perhaps also in 2026. The central bank lowered the federal funds rate by a full percentage point last fall and could restart rate cuts in the coming months. While any interest-rate reductions from the Fed will push bank APYs lower, a CD rate you secure now will be yours to enjoy until it matures.
It’s true that CD rates are no longer at their peak. But despite the pullback, the best CDs still offer a stellar return. October 2023 saw the highest CD rates push briefly to 6%, while today’s leading rate is 4.65%. But compare that to early 2022, before the Federal Reserve embarked on its fast-and-furious rate-hike campaign. The most you could earn from the very best CDs in the country ranged from just 0.50% to 1.70% APY, depending on the term.
Jumbo CDs require much larger deposits and sometimes pay premium rates—but not always. In fact, today’s best jumbo CD rates only out-pay the top standard rate in four of the eight CD terms we track. That means it’s smart to always check both types of offerings when CD shopping, and if your best rate option is a standard CD, simply open it with a jumbo-sized deposit.
Institutions are offering higher jumbo rates in the following terms:
In the 1-year term, meanwhile, the top standard and jumbo CDs pay the same rate of 4.50% APY.
In December, the Federal Reserve announced a third rate cut to the federal funds rate in as many meetings, reducing it a full percentage point since September. But following its announcement last month, the central bank has opted to hold rates steady at all three of its 2025 meetings to date.
The Fed’s rate cuts last year represented a pivot from the central bank’s historic 2022–2023 rate-hike campaign, in which the committee aggressively increased interest rates to combat decades-high inflation. At its 2023 peak, the federal funds rate climbed to its highest level since 2001—and remained there for nearly 14 months.
Fed rate moves are significant to savers, as any reductions to the fed funds rate will push down the rates that banks and credit unions are willing to pay consumers for their deposits. Both CD rates and savings account rates reflect these changes to the fed funds rate.
Time will tell what exactly will happen to the federal funds rate in 2025 and 2026—as tariff activity from the Trump administration has paused the Fed’s course as policymakers await clear data. But with more Fed rate cuts possibly arriving later this year, today’s CD rates could be the best you’ll see in a while—making now a smart time to lock in the best rate that suits your personal timeline.
We update these rankings every business day to give you the best deposit rates available:
Note that the “top rates” quoted here are the highest nationally available rates Investopedia has identified in its daily rate research on hundreds of banks and credit unions. This is much different than the national average, which includes all banks offering a CD with that term, including many large banks that pay a pittance in interest. Thus, the national averages are always quite low, while the top rates you can unearth by shopping around are often 5, 10, or even 15 times higher.
Every business day, Investopedia tracks the rate data of more than 200 banks and credit unions that offer CDs to customers nationwide and determines daily rankings of the top-paying certificates in every major term. To qualify for our lists, the institution must be federally insured (FDIC for banks, NCUA for credit unions), the CD’s minimum initial deposit must not exceed $25,000, and any specified maximum deposit cannot be under $5,000.
Banks must be available in at least 40 states. And while some credit unions require you to donate to a specific charity or association to become a member if you don’t meet other eligibility criteria (e.g., you don’t live in a certain area or work in a certain kind of job), we exclude credit unions whose donation requirement is $40 or more. For more about how we choose the best rates, read our full methodology.
Convera is thrilled to release part two of The Payments Pulse, a multipart report analyzing the changing state of international trade and commerce. Building on the market insights examined in The Payments Pulse part one, we now turn our attention to the unfolding emergence of three payments innovations promising to increase liquidity, certainty, and inclusion around the world.
As real-time payments (RTP) expand across borders, businesses engaged in international trade stand to benefit from instant global payments. Meanwhile, the recent boom in stablecoin usage suggests this fiat-pegged cryptocurrency could be on the path for mainstream adoption. And lastly, we rethink corporate treasury management through the lens of decentralized finance. In a rapidly evolving financial ecosystem, understanding these innovations could help your business increase transaction speed and payment delivery, reduce processing costs, and tap into new financial efficiencies.
Download Part 2 of the Payments Pulse now
Every business wants faster payments, especially when it comes to cross-border transactions that have traditionally been slow and costly. RTPs have the potential to accelerate doing business across borders, with global volumes projected to surge 161% to reach $58 trillion by 2028.
Almost 80 countries have already adopted an RTP network for their domestic payments, providing consumers and businesses alike with 24/7 instant payments, even on weekends. The next wave of innovation lies in the integration of domestic payment rails across borders, delivering instantaneous money movement around the world.
While regulatory and technical harmonization remains a challenge, ongoing infrastructure development and evolving frameworks suggest that real-time cross border capabilities will continue to gain momentum throughout the decade.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is making significant strides, having expanded the Eurozone’s TARGET Instant Payment Settlement (TIPS) service to include the Norwegian krone in April 2025, adding to the currently supported euro, Swedish krona, and Danish krone. North America is making international headway, with Payments Canada announcing that half the technical build is now complete for its much-delayed Real-Time Rail (RTR) system into the U.S. In the Asia Pacific region, Australia and Hong Kong have demonstrated advanced platforms for processing RTPs, while additional progress is sweeping Africa and the Middle East, bringing unprecedented access and financial inclusion to underserved markets.
Multinational collaborations are also fueling the growth of cross-border RTP networks, with the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Innovation Hub’s Project Nexus aiming to standardize cross-border transactions by connecting domestic real-time payments systems across different countries. As these systems integrate and interoperable standards are rolled out, cross-border transactions are poised to become more seamless.
RTP networks offer substantial advantages to businesses, especially small and medium enterprises (SMEs). The speed of transactions helps optimize cash flow, reduce working capital and enhance liquidity. Other benefits of real-time payments include greater transparency, reduced costs and stronger supplier relationships through timely transactions. Additionally, RTP networks have the potential to enable businesses to scale globally by facilitating instant transactions with partners worldwide.
“Real-time cross border payments are no longer a future ambition; they’re a present-day game-changer,” says Dharmesh Syal, Convera’s Chief Technology Officer. “The expansion of real-time payment networks is pushing businesses toward new ways of operating, reshaping financial ecosystems and opening new doors for financial inclusion on a global scale.”
While RTP networks present significant opportunities for financial institutions, they also pose challenges, particularly in upgrading legacy infrastructure and combating fraud. To overcome such obstacles, institutions can partner with third-party providers like Convera to adopt scalable, API-driven payment systems, helping to meet growing customer demands for speed and transparency.
As digital currencies continue to reshape the global financial landscape, stablecoins growing into a transformative force, particularly in cross border payments.
What are stablecoins? They’re a form of cryptocurrency designed to maintain a steady value by being pegged to a fiat currency, such as the US dollar, or a commodity like gold. This stability, combined with the speed and transparency of blockchain technology, makes stablecoins a strong contender for mainstream adoption in business transactions.
“With institutions like the Bank of America weighing in on the conversation, it seems like stablecoins are on a precipice,” says Scott Johnson, Vice President of Technical Program Management at Convera. “Ultimately, their mainstream adoption will hinge on a regulatory environment flexible enough to support innovation while reassuring both businesses and consumers that stablecoins are safe and trustworthy.”
For global businesses, stablecoins offer substantial advantages over traditional cross border payment systems. Traditional banking systems can take days to process cross-border transactions, while stablecoins leverage the blockchain to settle almost instantly, offering enhanced cash flow and reduced counterparty risk. Additionally, transaction costs can be significantly lower — some estimates suggest savings of up to 80% compared to traditional methods that often involve multiple intermediaries and hefty fees.
Stablecoins also offer increased accessibility for markets with limited banking infrastructure, helping businesses in underserved regions engage in international trade more easily. By providing an alternative to traditional banking systems, stablecoins are helping drive financial inclusion on a global scale.
While stablecoins present significant opportunities, they also pose challenges for financial institutions. Traditional banks face hurdles adapting to the round-the-clock nature of blockchain transactions, and concerns about regulatory uncertainty persist.
As the regulatory landscape matures and more financial institutions integrate stablecoins into their infrastructure, this stabilized cryptocurrency is poised to move from niche buzzword to mainstream financial tool. With the potential to transform the global payments system, stablecoins are quickly becoming a key player in the future of digital finance.
As blockchain technology continues to evolve, its potential to revolutionize corporate treasury management is becoming increasingly evident. No longer just a buzzword in fintech circles, blockchain is being recognized for its capacity to streamline cash flow management, reduce operational costs and improve risk mitigation strategies, particularly with cross border payments.
Treasurers have long juggled multiple currencies, competing payment systems and varying regulatory environments, all while managing liquidity, forecasting cash flow, and minimizing risks. Factors like inflation, exchange rate fluctuations and geopolitical instability further complicate cash management, creating the need for real-time insights. Cross border payments, in particular, suffer from a lack of speed and transparency, leading to inefficiencies and risks. These challenges have made treasury functions one of the most operationally intensive aspects of financial management.
Blockchain technology offers a promising solution to these persistent challenges, as a secure and transparent online ledger that records transactions across a distributed network of computers. The Blockchain provides three key advantages:
For treasury functions, one key benefit of blockchain stands out — it enables near-instant cross-border settlements. This capability allows treasurers to manage liquidity more precisely, ensuring that operational costs are reduced, while funds are available when and where they’re needed.
Another crucial benefit of blockchain is its potential for “atomic settlement.” This means that transactions can settle simultaneously for all parties involved, reducing the risk of settlement failure and counterparty risks, a significant concern in treasury operations.
A particularly exciting aspect of blockchain for treasury management is the use of smart contracts that automatically execute and enforce agreements based on predefined rules. For treasurers, this means transactions, such as supplier payments, can be automatically triggered when conditions are met, reducing the need for manual intervention, lowering operational costs and ensuring more efficient liquidity management.
Tokenization, or the creation of digital representations of physical assets on the blockchain, is another area where blockchain is transforming treasury functions. By turning assets like currency, real estate or stocks into tokens, businesses can engage in real-time transactions that were once a significant challenge.
The future of blockchain in treasury management looks bright. As regulatory clarity improves and organizations overcome technical barriers uptake is expected to increase driving efficiency and profitability in cross-border payments.
The global payments ecosystem is experiencing a major shift with businesses, institutions and consumers demanding faster, more cost-efficient, and transparent transactions. As organizations adjust to new requirements, Convera is here to facilitate global growth.
Download part 2 of The Payments Pulse now and stay tuned for the final installment coming in September.
Want more insights into the topics shaping the future of cross-border payments? Tune in to Converge, with new episodes every Wednesday.
Plus, register for the Daily Market Update to get the latest currency news and FX analysis from our experts.
Even those with retirement accounts aren’t sure they will have enough money when the time comes, according to recently published survey results.
About 60% of Americans have a retirement savings account, such as a 401(k) or an individual retirement account (IRA), according to survey results reported Monday by global analytics and advisory firm Gallup. While many have started saving, only half of those with retirement accounts said they expect to live comfortably in retirement.
In comparison, of those who said they don’t have retirement accounts, about 30% expect to live comfortably in retirement.
These figures highlight that putting money into a retirement savings account alone might not be enough to plan to retire comfortably. Knowing when you’ll retire, how long you expect to live and how much money you need is vital to ensuring retirees don’t run out of money once they stop working. Emergency funds and high-yield savings accounts could also help with additional financial support during retirement.
Other studies show that every generation is worried about having enough money to retire comfortably. A recent poll from Allianz showed that 70% of Gen Xers fear running out of money in retirement more than death. At the same time, 66% of millennials and 61% of baby boomers also fear running out of money more than their clocks running out.
Ford (F) shares will remain in focus after slumping on Monday as investors digested President Donald Trump’s plan to double tariffs on steel imports to 50%.
The tariff hike, which the president announced late Friday, sent shares in Ford and General Motors (GM) tumbling on Monday over concerns the levies would greatly increase automakers’ manufacturing costs. Experts have cautioned that steep import duties could raise prices of cars by thousands of dollars.
Ford shares fell nearly 4% to just under $10 on Monday. The stock is back to where it started 2025 and has dropped 18% over the past 12 months, pressured by elevated input costs and EV development expenses that are squeezing the automaker’s profitability. Last month, the company suspended its full year outlook amid worries about an uncertain auto tariff environment.
Below, we take a closer look at Ford’s chart and use technical analysis to identify important price levels worth watching out for.
Since setting a multi-year low in early April, Ford shares have staged a countertrend rally within a rising wedge that saw the price briefly reclaim the 200-day moving average. However, more recently, the stock broke down from the pattern to resume its longer-term downtrend, closing below the 50-day MA on above-average volume in Monday’s trading session.
Meanwhile, renewed selling has coincided with the relative strength index falling below neutral territory, signaling weakening price momentum.
Let’s identify two important support levels on Ford’s chart and also point out overhead areas worth monitoring during future upswings in the stock.
A continuation of the stock’s downward momentum could initially see a fall to around $9.50. This area may provide support near a horizontal line that connects a range of comparable trading activity on the chart extending back to last August’s prominent trough.
Ford bulls’ failure to defend this important technical level could see the shares drop to lower support near $8.40. Investors may seek longer-term buy-and-hold opportunities in this region around the notable April swing low.
During future upswings in the stock, investors should keep their eyes peeled on the $10.80 area. The shares could face overhead selling pressure in this location near the top of the rising wedge pattern.
Finally, a more bullish move could drive a rally toward $11.40. Investors who have bought Ford shares at lower prices may decide to lock in profits at this level near multiple peaks that developed on the chart between August and November last year.
The comments, opinions, and analyses expressed on Investopedia are for informational purposes only. Read our warranty and liability disclaimer for more info.
As of the date this article was written, the author does not own any of the above securities.
You may not realize it yet, but the smartphone is on its way out.
That sleek, glowing rectangle that’s been glued to your hand for over a decade—the symbol of the Mobile Internet Era—is heading for obsolescence.
Why? Because we’re entering the Age of Artificial Intelligence—and AI doesn’t want your thumbs or your screen.
It wants your eyes, your ears, and your intent.
And to deliver on that vision, it needs a new device.
The next dominant tech form factor won’t live in your pocket. It’ll sit on your face.
This isn’t some futuristic prediction—it’s already happening.
Here’s what went down just this week:
Meanwhile, Meta Platforms (META) is pushing its Ray-Ban smart glasses hard—sales tripled this year. It’s also developing Orion, a stealth project for finger-controlled AI eyewear.
Amazon (AMZN) is still shipping Echo Frames, leveraging Alexa as its voice-first interface for ambient computing.
And yes, Apple (AAPL) is reportedly extending Vision Pro into a lightweight, consumer-grade smart glasses format.
This isn’t a product cycle. It’s a platform shift.
And Big Tech knows: the company that replaces the smartphone wins the next 20 years.
The smartphone ruled the 2010s because it matched the needs of the mobile internet: apps, touchscreens, scrolling, notifications.
But AI isn’t built for that.
AI thrives on real-time interaction, not manual input. It listens. It observes. It acts on your behalf. It’s ambient, proactive, and often invisible.
That’s why AI needs a screenless interface.
Smart glasses—equipped with cameras, microphones, displays, and context-aware AI—are the ideal interface for the ambient computing era.
They don’t require unlocking. They don’t pull you out of your world. They layer intelligence on top of your reality.
This is the leap from tap to presence. From input to interaction.
Back in 2007, Apple didn’t just launch the iPhone—it created a $10 trillion mobile ecosystem.
That included:
You didn’t need to invest in Apple alone to win—you could ride the ecosystem.
The same strategy applies to AI glasses. Here are the top companies poised to profit from the shift:
The AI glasses movement is about more than convenience. It’s a new computing paradigm—ambient, hands-free, always-on.
And it’s not science fiction.
With billions flowing into R&D and major players making their move, AI glasses could become the new standard interface for computing—just as smartphones once were.
The companies that help build, power, and scale this ecosystem could lead the next wave of generational tech gains.
The smartphone changed how we accessed the internet.
AI glasses will change how we experience reality.
And just like last time, the biggest winners may not be the device makers—but the ecosystem builders.
The Mobile Internet Era is ending. The Ambient AI Era is beginning.
The iPhone is dead. Long live AI glasses.
On the date of publication, Luke Lango did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.
P.S. You can stay up to speed with Luke’s latest market analysis by reading our Daily Notes! Check out the latest issue on your Innovation Investor or Early Stage Investor subscriber site.
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) shares hit another record high on Monday, as the AI-powered analytics software provider benefits from investor optimism about its expanding business with the federal government.
The government has integrated a Palantir product called Foundry into at least four agencies, including the Department of Homeland Security and the Health and Human Services Department, The New York Times reported Friday. Officials at the Social Security Administration and Internal Revenue Service have also had discussions with Palantir about buying its technology, the report said.
Palantir shares rose 0.2% to close Monday at just above $132, after surging nearly 8% the previous session to a record high. The stock has doubled since hitting its early-April low and is up 75% since the start of the year, as investor enthusiasm for AI stocks has recovered lately and investors bet that Palantir will be a prime beneficiary of the government’s efficiency drive.
Below, we take a closer look at Palantir’s chart and use technical analysis to point out crucial price levels worth watching out for.
After reaching last month’s peak, Palantir shares consolidated in a pennant pattern, indicating a continuation of the stock’s longer-term uptrend.
Indeed, the price staged a volume-backed breakout above the pattern in Friday’s trading session, paving the way for higher prices this week. Moreover, while the relative strength index confirms bullish momentum, the indicator remains below overbought levels, providing ample room for the price to test higher prices.
Let’s apply bars pattern analysis to forecast where Palantir shares may be headed next and also identify crucial support levels to eye during potential pullbacks.
To predict how the stock’s trend may play out, investors can use bars pattern analysis, a technique that analyzes prior price action to forecast future directional movements.
When applying the analysis to Palantir’s chart, we extract the price bars comprising the trend higher that proceeded the pennant and overlay them from the pattern’s breakout point. This projects a bullish target of around $220 and indicates the move higher may last until early July if it rhymes with the earlier uptrend.
The first lower level to eye sits around $125. This area may provide support near the early-May high, which also closely aligns with the stock’s prominent November peak.
A breakdown below this level could see the shares retrace toward $97. The price may encounter buying interest at this location near a brief period of consolidation in mid-April sitting alongside the March swing high.
Finally, further selling in Palantir shares may lead to a retest of lower support at the $83 level. Investors could seek entry points in this region near a trendline that links a range of corresponding trading activity on the chart between December and April.
The comments, opinions, and analyses expressed on Investopedia are for informational purposes only. Read our warranty and liability disclaimer for more info.
As of the date this article was written, the author does not own any of the above securities.
The second stage of this bear market will be brutal.
So says veteran trader Jeff Clark.
Now, perhaps your reaction is, “what bear market?”
As I write Monday, the S&P is just 4% below its all-time high set back in February. Plus, this earnings season has been strong; and on Friday, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey showed sentiment improved in late May.
If anything, it feels like bullish momentum could carry us deep into the summer.
Here’s Jeff explaining what he sees coming next:
This is what bear markets do.
The first rally phase in a bear market is designed to punish bearish traders who’ve held on to short positions for too long and then coax reluctant bulls back into the market.
It makes folks question if we’re even in a bear market at all.
Then, the bear takes another swipe.
To illustrate, Jeff points toward a similar setup during the bear market in 2022.
In the chart below, note how the S&P peaked in early January of that year, then suffered its first decline phase – about 16% in two months.
But then, it delivered a stunning “V” shaped rally where it recovered most of that initial decline. “What bear market?” was likely the reaction from investors.
Source: StockCharts.com
V-shaped rallies are dangerous. Investors who sold at the bottom regret their decision. They buy back in at higher prices.
And, this time, they vow not to get “bluffed” out of positions on the next decline because apparently, stocks only go up.
During the second decline phase, these investors hold onto their stocks and endure larger losses because they’re convinced they made a mistake selling the first time around.
Jeff believes that even if he’s wrong, the S&P’s technical set-up limits additional gains from here:
If I am wrong, since the market is already in an extended condition – with the various moving averages expanded far away from each other – we’re not going to miss out on a huge move higher.
There’s not much fuel remaining for that sort of a move.
As we’ve highlighted in past Digests, Jeff believes we’re in the early stages of a bear market that won’t bottom until later this fall – potentially, somewhere around 4,125. But at that point, we’ll have what Jeff calls a “generational buying opportunity.”
Jeff warns that the financial sector will lead the market lower over the next several weeks.
Behind this call is the Bullish Percent Index for the Financial Sector (BPFINA) that just triggered a new sell signal. I’ll show you the chart in a moment.
First, a bullish percent index shows the percentage of stocks within a sector that are trading in a bullish technical formation. It can range from zero to 100, with anything above 80 indicating overbought conditions. Readings below 30 signal oversold conditions.
Through a bearish lens, sell signals occur when the index turns lower from overbought conditions, which it’s now doing.
Here’s the chart:
Source: StockCharts.com
It appears the bear is gearing up to take another swipe.
The last time the BPFINA generated a sell signal was in December. Jeff and his subscribers traded that by buying put options on Bank of America (BAC). It resulted in a 50% winner in just two weeks.
In April, when they got a buy signal, they sold uncovered put options on Citigroup (C). They closed that position just five days later with 76% gains.
Congrats to all the Delta Report traders on your wins.
If you’re a subscriber, Jeff just recommended a new bearish trade on Friday. Click here to log in and get the details.
On Friday, we learned that President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” – recently passed by the House – contains a tax provision that could dent our portfolios.
“Section 899” makes a major change to how foreign investors (both individuals and sovereign entities) are taxed on U.S. investments. It carries potentially big consequences for investors, the dollar, and treasury yields.
Stepping back, for decades, foreign capital has flowed freely into American assets like stocks, real estate, and most importantly, U.S. Treasury bonds – in part due to favorable tax treatment.
Section 899 changes that.
It removes key exemptions and introduces new reporting and withholding rules. Basically, the clause makes it more complicated and costly for foreigners to park money in the U.S.
Higher taxes (up to 20%) and compliance burdens would discourage foreign investments in the U.S. And fewer foreign dollars pushing stock prices higher would be a headwind for the market.
Sovereign wealth funds and foreign central banks have long relied on Treasuries and U.S. assets for safety and liquidity.
Section 899 treats them more like any other taxable investor. The policy change undermines the incentive to keep buying U.S. assets – or even to hold the treasuries they currently own.
There are two potential knock-on effects:
If foreign capital begins to exit or if inflows slow dramatically, demand for U.S. dollars could drop, weakening the greenback.
That’s not just a currency story; it’s an investment and inflation story. A weaker dollar can push up the cost of imports, stoke the reinflation no one wants, and trigger a flight from dollar-denominated assets.
More concerning, this is happening as the U.S. is in the middle of refinancing trillions in debt.
If foreign governments step back from buying treasuries – or worse, start selling them – it will increase supply and reduce demand. That would force our government to offer higher yields to attract new buyers.
But higher yields will mean higher borrowing costs – just as America’s fiscal position is getting worse. Higher yields would also be a headwind for stocks, pressuring valuations and offering competition to stocks.
Now, the benefit of the change is that it could start righting the wrongs of unfair trade partners from past decades.
Here’s TheWall Street Journal to explain that perspective:
[Section 899] is designed to apply only in cases where other countries are deemed to be imposing unfair or discriminatory taxes against U.S. companies…
Countries that could be subject to the tax include those that impose digital-services taxes on tech companies, such as some European Union members and the U.K.
The Trump and Biden administrations have both criticized those taxes as unfairly targeting U.S. companies that dominate the tech industry.
We’re all for “fairness” – especially with U.S. Big Tech. But it might be a bumpy ride to achieve such fairness with painful, economic collateral damage in our treasuries market.
Bottom line: Section 899 is a big deal. While it might pressure other nations toward better trade behavior, it also risks unraveling decades of dependable foreign investment in the U.S. that could, ultimately, hit our portfolios.
We’ll keep tracking this with you.
Jonathan has been helping his subscribers cash in on a slew of trading profits this earnings season.
If you’re new to the Digest, Jonathan is a veteran trader who earned his stripes at the Chicago Board Options Exchange. He went toe-to-toe with some of the world’s most aggressive and successful moneymakers.
He’s made more than $10 million over the course of his career, profiting from bull markets, bear markets, and everything in between. Most recently, he’s been helping his readers create their own trading fortunes.
Here’s Jonathan:
Over the last few weeks, we went six-for-six on a slew of doubles and triples including a huge 67.9% on gain on Global Ship Lease (GSL) and a stunning 119% on Tutor Perini Corp (TPC).
And those recent wins are just the tip of the iceberg…
Earlier this year, we landed a series of double and triple-digit winners that helped my readers take gains during one of the most volatile markets in history.
Now, here’s the bottom line: My Earnings Advantage readers had the chance to take home at least 26 winners with a 30% average return. All since I started sending out recommendations in 2024.
That’s the power of knowing exactly which trades to make when earnings season rolls around.
Congrats again to all the Earnings Advantage subscribers who have been profiting from these trades.
To learn more about Jonathan’s trading strategy in Earnings Advantage, click here.
And to watch Jonathan’s free daily market analysis, click here to join him for Masters in Trading Live, every day the market is open at 11 a.m. ET.
You can also join him on YouTube to ask him your trading questions. As he points out, “it’s a great way to connect directly with our trading community and make sure you’re getting the insights you need to help build a deeper understanding of the markets.”
We’ll keep you updated on all these stories here in the Digest.
Have a good evening,
Jeff Remsburg
Episode 245 of the Investopedia Express podcast with Caleb Silver (June 2, 2025)
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Editor’s Note: As one of the most accomplished traders of our time, my colleague Jeff Clark has spent the past 40 years successfully using chaos and volatility to his advantage.
In fact, he has accurately predicted every volatile market period this century, including…
Volatility in the market is nerve-racking. But what most investors don’t realize is that volatility is the best opportunity to make money as a trader.
This is Jeff’s specialty.
He’s making another prediction that the stock market could be heading for more trouble in the coming weeks and months.
Now, I’ve known and respected Jeff for two decades. That’s why I’ve highlighted his insights for my own readers many times over the years. And I’d like to take the opportunity to do that again today.
Today, Jeff is joining us to share what he’s seeing in the bond markets.
Take it away…
This is the most dangerous chart in the financial markets…
This is a chart of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) from about a week ago. TLT is an exchange-traded fund that tracks the action in long-term Treasury Bonds.
And it’s breaking down.
Why is that dangerous?
Because, as bond prices fall, longer-term interest rates rise. And rising rates are bad news for stock prices.
Please understand, the Federal Reserve Board sets the target for short-term Federal Funds interest rates. That’s the rate over which stock market investors have been obsessing. That’s the rate most folks expect the Fed will cut two or three times this year.
Bond investors determine what happens with longer-term interest rates.
Based on the look of the above chart, TLT looks set to fall. That means longer-term rates are set to rise.
TLT peaked in September 2024 near $99 per share. It then declined all the way to $84 in January, where it found support and bounced. That bounce ran out of steam last month. TLT has been falling for six straight weeks.
Now it looks like TLT is set to lose the support of the $84 level. If that happens, we could see a quick drop to the October 2023 low near $78.
That would put long-term interest rates near 5.6%, or even a bit higher. We haven’t seen long term rates that high in 20 years. And it’s happening at a time when the U.S. Treasury has to refinance trillions of dollars in maturing debt, and when the U.S. government is trying to pass a budget that will add trillions more to the deficit.
Stock market investors have ignored this situation, so far. TLT is down 7% over the past six weeks. Yet, the S&P 500 is higher.
Somebody is lying.
Stocks and Treasury bonds typically move in the same direction. So, this sort of divergence is notable.
One of these assets is due for an epic reversal. Either Treasury bonds need to rally to catch up with the action in stocks, or stocks are going to be pulled down to match the action in bonds.
The widely accepted opinion on Wall Street is that bond investors are smarter than stock investors.
We’ll soon find out if that’s true.
Best regards and good trading,
Jeff Clark
Editor, Market Minute
Now, let’s take a look back at what we covered here at Smart Money this week… and what you can look forward to in your next issue.
May 28, 2025
We humans tend to convert potential safety benefits into performance benefits. A motorcycle rider who is wearing a helmet tends to feel more invincible than a rider who isn’t, potentially leading to the sort of disasters that occur when risk wears the guise of safety. It may surprise you to learn that it’s the same on Wall Street. So, continue reading to find out the best way to diversify into foreign markets – one risk I think that’s worth taking.
May 29, 2025
On one side of the trade war moat, non-tariffed firms are finding enormous success as their competition melts away. On the other side are companies liquifying on a warm day. And this appears to be taking Wall Street by surprise. In this issue, Tom Yeung highlights two company, one in each group. Plus, he shares Eric’s strategy that helped earn subscribers a 200% gain in just seven weeks from the company on the right side.
May 31, 2025
Google’s new Gemini-powered AlphaEvolve isn’t like the typical AI agents that we’ve talked about. This new system creates and evolves computer programs using what Google calls “evolutionary programming” – essentially natural selection for code. In Saturday’s issue, we dive more into AlphaEvolve and explore why this is a pivotal moment for the AI Revolution. Then, we take a look at how Louis Navellier has been preparing investors for a larger framework at play… a strategy that could deliver life-changing wealth.
June 1, 2025
Uncertainty is everywhere. Just look at the fact that more than 350 S&P 500 companies cited the word “uncertainty” in their latest earnings calls. But the word also gives many the excuse to be lazy. So, Louis Navellier is here to share the real story: three major positive economic shifts that are already happening with full certainty. Read on to find out how this plan could trigger a generational bull market – and how you can join.
I recently sat down to interview Jeff Clark about his secret to handing his readers more than 1,000 winning trades during volatile times…
It’s something he calls the “Chaos Pattern.”
In our conversation, Jeff shares compelling new research that shows how chaos could soon be dominating the markets once again. He’ll reveal what he sees coming… and how he trades the market right now.
Hint: It’s by using a new, powerful stock screener that scans the market for Jeff’s “Chaos Pattern” every single day.
That interview will be available in your next Smart Money.
Stay tuned…
Regards,
Eric Fry
Editor, Smart Money