Archives June 2025

Outlook Hits CrowdStrike Shares, Dollar Tree Stock Falls



Key Takeaways

  • The S&P 500 eked out a gain of less than 0.1% on Wednesday, June 4, 2025, as soft results from a private payroll report raised concerns about the job market.
  • ON Semiconductor shares extended their move higher following the CEO’s positive comments on automotive and industrial demand.
  • Dollar Tree shares plunged as the discount retailer said tariffs could pressure its earnings this quarter.

Major U.S. equities indexes finished Wednesday mixed after a report showed job creation by private employers hitting a two-year low in April, prompting President Donald Trump to reiterate calls for interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

The S&P 500 ended the midweek session with a gain of less than 0.1%. The Nasdaq added 0.3%, but the Dow was down 0.2%, snapping a streak of four straight winning sessions for the blue-chip index. read Investopedia’s full coverage of today’s trading here.

ON Semiconductor (ON) shares rose 6.1%, securing the top daily performance in the S&P 500. Wednesday’s move higher tacked onto gains posted in the prior session after Onsemi CEO Hassan El-Khoury told a tech conference that the company is seeing signs of a recovery in demand.

GlobalFoundries (GFS) said it plans to invest more than $16 billion to increase chip production in the U.S. The maker of so-called essential semiconductors said it is collaborating with companies like Apple (AAPL) and General Motors (GM) to support domestic chip manufacturing. Shares of NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), also mentioned as a partner in the U.S.-made chip initiative, gained 5.6%. GlobalFoundries shares were up 2.3%.

D.R. Horton (DHI) stock gained 4.4%, and shares of other homebuilders also moved higher. A downtick in Treasury yields and Trump’s renewed pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates brightened the outlook for mortgage borrowing costs.

Dollar Tree (DLTR) shares dropped 8.4%, losing the most of any S&P 500 stock on Wednesday, as the discount retailer cautioned that tariffs could weigh on profitability in the current quarter. Although its net sales, comparable-store sales, and adjusted earnings per share for the fiscal first quarter topped estimates, Dollar Tree warned that second-quarter adjusted EPS could be down as much as 50% year-over-year as the company works to alleviate tariff-related costs.

An underwhelming outlook also pressured shares of CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD), which sank 5.8% after the cybersecurity firm’s quarterly revenue forecast came in below consensus estimates. Despite the guidance, several research firms boosted their price targets on CrowdStrike shares, with Deutsche Bank highlighting the need for additional cyber defenses as companies deploy more artificial intelligence applications. Bank of America analysts downgraded CrowdStrike stock to “neutral,” citing a high valuation and an expectation for revenue growth to taper off of the next few years.

Constellation Energy (CEG) stock slipped 4.3%. Although the shares initially surged following Constellation’s announcement of a 20-year deal to sell nuclear power to Facebook parent Meta Platforms (META), they failed to hold on to those gains. Citi analysts downgraded Constellation Energy stock to “neutral” from “buy,” citing limited upside following the recent rally and noting that the Meta agreement could have implications for future power contract negotiations.



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Today’s ‘Trump Trade’ Has a Catchy Nickname. But Should You Buy It?



Key Takeaways

  • Investors are attempting to figure out from day to day what the next twist in Trump’s tariff policy could be and how it might affect stocks. 
  • The upshot, for some, is the belief that Trump eventually delays or otherwise modifies policies the market doesn’t like, so trade-policy negativity will be shaken off before long. 
  • There’s a nickname for this: the “TACO Trade.” But investors have mixed opinions about whether it’s a safe bet.

The “Trump Trade” has evolved. How investors should play it is up for debate. 

The early days of President Donald Trump’s second administration supercharged a climb in stocks that started late last summer, lifting the major indexes and some specific assets—shares of Tesla (TSLA), cryptocurrency—in particular. Sprinkled in was volatility around stock and sectors seen as likely to be helped or hurt by spending and regulatory efforts.  

Some of that remains in place, but the action these days is largely around global trade policy. Investors are attempting to figure out from day to day what the next twist in Trump’s tariff strategy could be and how it might affect stocks in the hours, days and weeks ahead. 

That’s taken on particular salience since stocks swooned after the April 2 “Liberation Day” tariff announcements and then began working their way back. The upshot, for some, is the belief that Trump eventually delays or otherwise modifies policies the market doesn’t like, so trade-policy negativity will be shaken off before long. 

There’s an alliterative nickname for this: the “TACO Trade,” short for “Trump Always Chickens Out,” coined last month by a Financial Times columnist. (Asked about it at a press conference, Trump was unamused.) Discussion of the term has taken on a political character and become fodder for The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, and other publications—now including this one—but it has also found its way to the lips of investors and analysts.  

Are Investors Too Sanguine?

BCA Research mentioned it in a note earlier this week, calling the trade “overcooked” and suggesting that investors may have grown too sanguine. “Risk assets price in trade deals and de-escalation along with limited policy damage despite ongoing volatility,” they wrote. Pepperstone analyst Michael Brown in late May effectively equated taco trading with buying the dip.  

Deutsche Bank analysts in their own note this week didn’t use the taco term, but—in raising their year-end target for the S&P 500—cited the idea that “the administration had already relented, driven primarily by the market reaction, and before the emergence of significant economic or political pain. This reinforces the view that if negative impacts of tariffs do materialize, we will get further relents.”

Other factors have undoubtedly aided stocks in recent weeks even as questions about the path forward for trade and the economy remain. The first-quarter earnings season was generally seen as strong, and Nvidia’s (NVDA) results and outlook have supported the AI trade. Futures markets indicate an expectation that the Federal Reserve cuts rates twice by the end of the year, as the job market shows signs of weakness and inflation approaches the Fed’s target.

Tariff Drama Likely to Continue

JP Morgan analysts on Tuesday shared a calendar of key trade dates in the coming months, noting a litany of summits and policy expirations—a 90-day pause on tariffs against the EU expires next month, and reduced U.S.-China tariffs are set to pass in August—between now and the end of the year. The administration reportedly asked countries to submit their “best offers” in trade negotiations by Wednesday.

Some investors don’t buy the inevitability of bullishness around trade news. “We think that, unfortunately, as the so-called ‘TACO Trade’ becomes more viral, it becomes more likely that Trump will stick to higher tariffs just to prove a point,” Panmure Liberum Head of Strategy Joachim Klement recently told a Reuters interviewer. 

In short, it may not pay to oversimplify the effect that trade could have on markets in the coming months. “There are no signs of a summer break from tariff drama,” JP Morgan wrote. 



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2 Reasons Not to Wait for a Fed Rate Cut Before Locking Your Mortgage Rate



Key Takeaways

  • The Federal Reserve has held rates steady so far in 2025, but at least one cut is expected this year.
  • If you’re house hunting, waiting for the Fed rate to drop—in hopes it will trigger lower mortgage rates—could backfire.
  • There’s no guarantee the Fed will cut rates this year, given ongoing economic uncertainty.
  • Even with a Fed rate cut, mortgage rates could still rise, as they aren’t directly tied to the Fed’s benchmark.
  • If you’re ready to buy and find the right home, locking in a mortgage now makes sense—since you’ll have the option to refinance later.

The full article continues below these offers from our partners.

For House Hunters, Rate Timing Is Difficult

With today’s mortgage rates hovering in upper-6% to lower-7% territory, it can be tempting to hold out, delaying your purchase of a home until rates come down. And there is some wisdom in striving for the lowest mortgage rate you can secure, since a quarter- or a half-point rate difference can add up to hundreds or even thousands of dollars saved every year.

But if you’re thinking you’ll score a better mortgage rate if you can just wait until the Federal Reserve starts cutting rates later this year, you could be sabotaging your home-buying process. That’s because a lower Fed rate is not a sure thing this year. In addition, Fed rate cuts don’t necessarily mean mortgage rates will fall. Here’s why you’re likely better off buying when the time is right for your situation, rather than pegging your timing to the Fed.

A Fed Rate Cut Is Expected—But Not Until Fall, and Not Guaranteed

After lowering interest rates three times between September and December last year, the Federal Reserve moved into neutral with a rate hold in January, followed by further pauses in March and May. Though another Fed rate-setting meeting is upon us in two weeks, the overwhelming expectation is that the central bank will hold its benchmark rate steady yet again.

In addition, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows markets currently place a 70% probability on the Fed’s July meeting also resulting in a rate hold. In fact, it’s predicted we won’t see a first 2025 rate cut until the meeting after that, which concludes with an announcement on Sept. 18.

But that September meeting is more than three months away, and a lot can happen in the economy during that time. In particular, the central bankers are watching closely for impacts of President Donald Trump’s ever-evolving tariff policy. For instance, we could see inflation tick back up. Or negative impacts could rear their head in the job market. These are competing problems and could make the Fed’s rate decisions difficult.

All this is to say that while the current expectation is that the Fed will begin lowering rates in September, anything can happen. Given the potential fallout from tariffs and possible trade wars, the Fed has been acknowledging how extremely uncertain things are right now. It’s therefore not inconceivable that the central bank could find itself holding rates at this high level for many more months than currently expected.

That’s one reason why waiting for a Fed rate cut may not be your best bet if you’re ready to move on a mortgage now. But there’s another reason.

Why a Fed Rate Cut Doesn’t Necessarily Spell Lower Mortgage Rates

It’s a common belief that when the Federal Reserve raises or lowers the federal funds rate, mortgage rates will move in sync. But in reality, the relationship between the Fed’s benchmark rate and what mortgage lenders offer is not so direct. Instead, moves by the central bank more directly impact short-term rates, such as those paid on bank accounts as well as those charged on credit card and personal loan balances.

Fixed mortgages are instead a long-term rate, and their connection to Fed rate changes is more tenuous. A tangle of economic factors affect the mortgage lending market, including inflation, consumer demand, housing supply, the strength of the current economy, and the status of the bond market, especially that of 10-year Treasury yields. Given these other influences, mortgage rates and the Fed funds rate can move independently—even in opposite directions.

That’s exactly what we saw in the last quarter of 2024, when mortgage rates shot up despite a bold half-point rate cut in September. Not only that, but after two more Fed reductions, 30-year mortgage rates surged again in late December and January, reaching almost 1.25 percentage points higher than before the Fed’s September rate cut.

Fallout from President Trump’s tariff policy, initiated on April 2, has also pushed mortgage rates around. Initially, the stock market dropped, sending bond yields lower. This caused a quick mortgage rate decline. But the massive uncertainty surrounding tariffs, and the trade wars they’ve ignited, later sent bond yields much higher, causing mortgage rates to surge.

Since then, the average 30-year mortgage rate has again fallen, continuing a roller coaster ride fueled by market uncertainties waiting to be resolved. Yet all of this mortgage rate movement has occurred while the federal funds rate has not moved an inch.

That means for mortgage shoppers, there’s no guaranteed payoff from a Fed rate cut, whenever it finally arrives. And no one can reliably predict where mortgage rates are headed the rest of this year—they could move even higher. So instead of looking to the Fed, it’s likely best to lock in a mortgage rate when the timing makes sense for your finances—and the right home comes along.

Today’s Mortgage Rate News

We cover new purchase and refinance mortgage rates every business day. Find our latest rate reports here:

How We Track the Best Mortgage Rates

The national and state averages cited above are provided as is via the Zillow Mortgage API, assuming a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 80% (i.e., a down payment of at least 20%) and an applicant credit score in the 680–739 range. The resulting rates represent what borrowers should expect when receiving quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates. © Zillow, Inc., 2025. Use is subject to the Zillow Terms of Use.



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Tesla CEO Elon Musk Tells Congress To ‘KILL the BILL’



Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk on Wednesday ramped up his criticism of President Trump’s signature budget legislation. 

Musk, who just last week left his role leading the Department of Government Efficiency, posted on X Wednesday, “Call your Senator, Call your Congressman, Bankrupting America is NOT ok! KILL the BILL.” The post comes after Musk on Tuesday called the proposal a “disgusting abomination” that would “massively increase the already gigantic budget deficit.”

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a press conference Tuesday that Musk’s attacks wouldn’t change President Trump’s support of the bill.

Musk, whose time as a “special government employee” trying to slash government spending with DOGE ended last month, has said he is refocusing his companies.

The budget bill, dubbed the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” passed by one vote in the House last month. In the Senate, it would take four Republicans joining Democrats in voting against the bill to prevent it from passing.

The bill extends many provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that were set to expire at the end of the year and adds new tax cuts including eliminating income tax on car loan interest, overtime pay, and tips. Additionally, the bill would cut funding for Medicaid and the SNAP food aid program, among other changes.



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More High-Income Households Are Shopping at Discount Retailers Like Dollar Tree



Key Takeaways

  • Dollar Tree is serving more customers with annual incomes of at least $100,000, in part because it’s diversified the stores’ merchandise and now sells items that cost as much as $7, executives said.
  • Another discount retailer, Dollar General, on Tuesday reported doing more business with middle- and high-income households.
  • Dollar Tree customers have been buying candy, snacks, drinks, and other items that are typically consumed quickly, and returning more often, the retailer said.

Dollar stores are gaining ground with high-income households, companies have said this week.

Dollar Tree (DLTR) saw 2.6 million new customers in the latest quarter, and people making at least six figures annually fueled much of that growth, executives said on an earnings conference call Wednesday. Dollar General (DG) on Tuesday said it’s seeing more middle- and high-income customers. That effect has been seen across retailers who say wealthier households are increasingly searching for value, Walmart (WMT) among them.

Dollar Tree has been expanding its inventory and adding merchandise that costs as much as $7, which CEO Michael Creedon credited with bringing in wealthier customers. Still, 85% of items at Dollar Tree cost $2 or less, the company said. 

“We believe they’re loving the expanded assortment that multi-price provides,” Creedon said, according to a transcript made available by AlphaSense. 

Dollar Tree Gets More Monthly Repeat Shoppers

Customers are buying items typically consumed right away, such as candy, snacks, and drinks, and returning more frequently, Creedon said. Dollar Tree posted a 9% bump in the number of shoppers who visit a store at least three times per month, he said.

“In the current environment, our low prices and smaller pack sizes are perfect for families trying to manage a tight household budget, and our expanded assortment is attractive to all customers across every income level,” Creedon said, according to the transcript. 

Dollar General’s first-quarter results exceeded expectations, but executives warned tariffs may squeeze profits this quarter, sending its stock lower in recent sessions.



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Watch These CrowdStrike Price Levels as Stock Drops From Record High on Light Outlook



Key Takeaways

  • CrowdStrike shares tumbled on Wednesday after the cybersecurity provider issued a quarterly outlook below Wall Street estimates.
  • The stock broke out from an ascending triangle to hit an all-time high earlier this week in a move that coincided with the relative strength index nudging toward overbought territory. Longer-term bullish momentum was tested on Wednesday.
  • Investors should watch major support levels on CrowdStrike’s chart around $455, $390 and $340, while also monitoring a key overhead area near $510.

CrowdStrike (CRWD) shares retreated from their record high on Wednesday after the cybersecurity provider issued a disappointing quarterly revenue outlook.

The company reported better-than-expected earnings for its latest quarter and announced a share repurchase program of up to $1 billion. However, CrowdStrike’s guidance of fiscal second-quarter revenue of $1.14 billion to $1.15 billion came in below Wall Street Expectations.

CrowdStrike shares fell nearly 6% to around $461 on Wednesday, leading Nasdaq decliners. Even with the sharp decline, the stock has gained 50% over the past 12 months, as the cybersecurity giant has recovered from an erroneous software update last July that caused a widespread outage of Windows PCs.

Below, we take a closer look at CrowdStrike’s chart and use technical analysis to identify major price levels worth watching out for.

Bullish Price Momentum Put to Test After Earnings

After forming two closely aligned troughs just below the 200-day moving average, CrowdStrike shares have trended sharply higher, albeit on lackluster trading volume.

The stock broke out from an ascending triangle to an all-time high this week in a move that coincided with the relative strength index nudging toward overbought territory. However, longer-term bullish momentum was tested on Wednesday following the cybersecurity provider’s soft outlook.

Let’s identify three major support levels on CrowdStrike’s chart where the shares may encounter support and also locate a key overhead area to monitor if the stock resumes its longer-term uptrend.

Major Support Levels to Watch

The first lower level to watch sits around $455. This area on the chart would likely provide significant support near the ascending triangle’s top trendline and the prominent February swing high.

A close below this level could see the shares retrace to the $390 level. The shares may attract support in this location near a trendline that links several peaks that formed on the chart between December and April.

Further selling opens the door for a drop to lower support around $340. Investors could see this region, which sits just above the notable March and April troughs, as a longer-term floor given its proximity to a series of lows that developed on the chart from late November to early January.

Key Overhead Area to Monitor

If CrowdStrike shares resume their longer-term uptrend, investors can project an overhead area to monitor by using the measured move technique, also known as the measuring principle.

When applied to CrowdStrike’s chart, we calculate the distance between the ascending triangle’s two trendlines near this widest point and add that amount the pattern’s breakout area. For example, we add $55 to $455, which projects a target of $510.

The comments, opinions, and analyses expressed on Investopedia are for informational purposes only. Read our warranty and liability disclaimer for more info.

As of the date this article was written, the author does not own any of the above securities.



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Dollar retreats on disappointing data – United States


Written by Steven Dooley, Head of Market Insights, and Shier Lee Lim, Lead FX and Macro Strategist

Dollar weaker on weak economic data

Dollar index fell 0.4% to 98.79 as markets digested weak US economic data, particularly ADP employment and ISM Services.

The DXY Index tested 98.67 after the Trump/Putin phone call headlines but recovered to close at 98.79.

In Europe, dip-buying interest in EUR/USD is expected around Thursday’s ECB decision, with regional geopolitical risks seen as potential headwinds.

Risk-sensitive currencies like AUD and NZD outperformed.

Asian currencies showed mixed performance, with CNH tracking broader dollar moves.

SGD gains 0.27% while CNH was up 0.28% overnight.

geo risks flaring up again

Contractionary US ISM Services, USD weaker

The US ISM services index dropped from 51.6 in April to 49.9 in May, below the 52-point consensus.

The details don’t seem promising.

The number of new orders dropped from 52.3% to 46.4, the lowest since December 2022.

The one bright spot is that employment increased from 49 to 50.7.  

In Asia, USD/SGD is 0.5% away from September 2024 low of 1.2789.

From technical lens, USD/SGD remains under pressure, with the next key resistance levels of 21-day EMA of 1.2928 and 50-day EMA of 1.3051 remain in sight.

USDSGD remains under pressure

Aussie lower after GDP, but remains in the range

The Australian dollar was initially lower on Wednesday after a disappointing March-quarter GDP reading.

Annualised economic growth to 31 March for Australia was reported at 0.2% for the quarter (below the 0.4% forecast) and 1.3% for the year (below the 1.5% consensus forecast).

The AUD/USD later rallied helped by the weaker US dollar.

For now, the AUD/USD remains in the clearly defined trading range, with USD buyers targeting a move back to 0.6500 while USD sellers will look the lower end of the range at 0.6400.  

With no major AUD data out over the next 48 hours, the main driver of this market will be Friday night’s US non-farm payrolls report.

AUDUSD remains in range

Antipodeans gain on dollar weakness

Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges  

FX rates

Key global risk events

Calendar: 2 – 6 June

calendar

Have a question? [email protected]

*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.



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PNG Dealer Day Set For November Whitman Expos Baltimore Show


Professional Numismatists Guild (PNG) logo, 2025The Professional Numismatists Guild (www.PNGdealers.org) will host a dealers-only PNG Dealer Day show on Wednesday, November 5, 2025, in conjunction with the Whitman Expos™ Baltimore Show, November 6-8, in the Baltimore Convention Center.

In addition to PNG member-dealers, all other dealers are invited to participate, according to PNG Executive Director John Feigenbaum.

“As part of the new partnership between PNG and Whitman Expos, all table placements on PNG Dealer Day will be in the same location for the main show, so moving to another table the next day will not be necessary,” explained Feigenbaum.

The table fee is $250 for PNG members and $350 for non-PNG dealers. The entry fee for dealers without a table is free for PNG members and $100 for non-members.

The dealer set-up will begin at 9 am, and the bourse will be open to attendees for wholesale, dealer-only trading from 10 am to 5 pm.

“Our first PNG Dealer Day at the Central States Numismatic Society convention in April was a resounding success. We look forward to another successful event in Baltimore in November because the Whitman Coin & Collectibles Expo is a leading producer of coin and currency shows,” stated PNG President James Sego.

The Professional Numismatists Guild was founded in 1955. For additional information about the 2025 Baltimore PNG Dealer Day, visit online at www.PNGdealers.org/png-events or contact PNG by phone at 951-587-8300 or by email at [email protected].

For additional information about the Whitman Expos Baltimore November Show, visit www.expo.whitman.com.



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The Economy Is Slowing As ‘Companies Can’t Figure Out the Rules of This Tariff Game’



Key Takeaways

  • Business and community leaders throughout the country are having trouble planning for the future amid uncertainty about U.S. trade policy, a Fed report said Wednesday.
  • The Beige Book compiled observations from the Fed’s contacts in business who said they’re paralyzed by lack of clarity about tariffs.
  • “Companies freeze because they can’t figure out the rules of this tariff game,” said a South Carolina commercial real estate agent who saw deals for industrial property falling through.

Around the country, business and community leaders are still holding their breath, waiting for another tariff-related shoe to drop.

At least that’s the case according to the Beige Book, the Federal Reserve’s report on the economy released Wednesday. The report gathers interviews, anecdotes, and observations from businesses and other leaders from around the country. In May, it revealed that decision-makers were still paralyzed about spending and expansion plans while they wait to see what will happen next in President Donald Trump’s unpredictable tariff campaign.

“On balance, the outlook remains slightly pessimistic and uncertain, unchanged relative to the previous report,” the latest Beige Book said.

Much like April’s Beige Book, the report was shot through with mentions of “uncertainty” and related terms, especially about trade policy. In South Carolina, a commercial real estate agent said deals for industrial facilities have been falling through.

“Companies freeze because they can’t figure out the rules of this tariff game,” the agent told the Fed.

The same uncertainty was reported in many regions and industries.

“No one wants to spend money when the future is so uncertain,” one Minnesota firm told the Fed, adding that price uncertainty was “pushing projects out of budget” and complicating bidding.

In Kansas City, Missouri, a manufacturing executive used a medical metaphor to describe the difficulty of making investment decisions in the coming years.

“Right now, we are working on triage; we’ll worry about diet and exercise later,” they said.

The report echoed concerns of Fed officials and economists who have said uncertainty about the future of tariffs has taken a toll on the economy, as businesses delay making investments and hiring. Forecasters expect GDP growth to slow and unemployment to rise as tariffs and the uncertainty surrounding them start to bite.



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A Major Warning Signal for Investors


Jeff Clark’s bright red warning flag… the reversal of bond yields’ multi-decade direction… three major consequences… on a bear market’s doorstep?… how to trade volatility

Sir John Templeton once said:

The four most dangerous words in investing are: “This time it’s different.”

Perhaps.

But master trader Jeff Clark offered a visual of why today is “different” compared to the last 40 years – and the takeaway suggests that investors should be careful.

Here’s Jeff:

Most folks under 50 years old have no idea what’s coming next. They’ve never experienced a rising interest rate environment.

Look at this chart of 30-year interest rates…

Chart of the 30-year Treasury dropping

Source: StockCharts.com

Long-term interest rates peaked in 1982, with the 30-year Treasury Bond yielding 14%.

Rates then declined for the next 40 years – hitting as low as 0.4% during the COVID crisis in 2020.

But look at what has happened in the last three years. The 30-year Treasury yield broke out above a 40-year declining resistance line.

This is a tectonic shift in the market

This reversal in the direction of treasury yields has three primary consequences:

  • Tighter economic conditions for Main Street
  • Tougher investment conditions for Wall Street
  • Heavier debt burdens on Uncle Sam

Beginning with “Main Street,” Jeff notes that Interest rates are up 60% since 2022 – and 1,100% higher than their 2020 lows. Borrowing money now costs 11 times more than it did five years ago.

Here’s Jeff with the significance:

Most folks manage their debt by taking out new loans to pay off older debt as it matures. And, for the past 40 years we’ve been able to do this at perpetually lower interest rates. This allowed us to borrow even more money without incurring larger debt payments…

There were no consequences to borrowing money. Deficits didn’t matter.

Now though, with long-term interest rates recently hitting the highest level in 20 years, it costs more to borrow money. Any maturing debt must be refinanced at higher rates.

Nobody is refinancing their mortgage anymore and taking out a pile of cash to spend on their lavish lifestyles.

Now, you might recall that in yesterday’s Digest, we profiled the recent resilience of the U.S. consumer. But that resilience doesn’t mean that there aren’t risks today.

To explain, let’s jump to our hypergrowth expert Luke Lango. In his Innovation Investor Daily Notes from last week, he dove into the “pretty ugly” second revision of U.S. Q1 GDP, then turned to the consumer:

The more-important personal consumption number was revised significantly lower from +1.8% to +1.2%. That’s a really low growth number for personal consumption.

Going back to 1995, the average personal consumption growth rate has hovered around 3%. We are at 1/3 of that today.

The U.S. economy is not in a great position right now.

Tougher investment conditions for Wall Street

Back in 2023, I wrote a Digest that suggested the economic and investment conditions that helped Baby Boomers and Generation X generate wealth were fading.

Yes, those generations faced bear market and recessions, but overall, “buy the dip” was a winning strategy. I suggested one primary reason for their good fortune…

The slow, steady decline of the 10-year Treasury yield.

It created a perfect environment for stock investors.

I wasn’t the only one who had arrived at this conclusion. Here was the “Bond King” Bill Gross, co-founder of PIMCO, from back in 2013:

All of us, even the old guys like [Warren] Buffett, [George] Soros, [Dan] Fuss, yeah – me too, have cut our teeth during perhaps a most advantageous period of time, the most attractive epoch, that an investor could experience.

Since the early 1970s when the dollar was released from gold and credit began its incredible, liquefying, total return journey to the present day, an investor that took marginal risk, levered it wisely and was conveniently sheltered from periodic bouts of deleveraging or asset withdrawals could, and in some cases, was rewarded with the crown of “greatness.”

Perhaps, however, it was the epoch that made the man as opposed to the man that made the epoch…

We’re no longer in that epoch.

To illustrate, in our 2023 Digest, we showed a very similar chart to the one Jeff highlighted above, except we chose the 10-year Treasury, not the 30-year.

Chart of the 10-year Treasury yield reversing directions after 4 decades

Source: MacroTrends.net

Our bottom-line mirrored Jeff’s…

This time is different…at least in the bond market.

To be clear, this doesn’t mean life-changing stock returns aren’t possible (we’re looking at you, AI/robotics/humanoids). But it does suggest that if this bond direction continues, it will be a headwind to stock returns that we haven’t faced in about 45 years.

Heavier debt burdens on Uncle Sam

Let’s return to Jeff:

The U.S. government – with $9 trillion of its $36 trillion national debt due to mature in 2025 – for lack of a better word… is screwed.

All of that debt will be refinanced at higher interest rates.

Stepping back for context, our government is already paying through the teeth on interest expense.

The U.S. Treasury’s annual interest expense passed $1.117 trillion last year, making it the second-largest government expense on record.

Chart showing the U.S. Treasury’s annual interest expense passed $1.117 trillion last year, making it the second-largest government expense on record.

Source: Bloomberg / Joe Consorti

But the spending that’s on the way dwarfs this…

Here’s the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, a non-partisan thinktank:

Over the next decade, the U.S. government’s interest payments on the national debt are now projected to total $13.8 trillion — the highest dollar amount for interest in any historical 10-year period and nearly double the total spent over the past two decades after adjusting for inflation.

The government has two options to finance this hefty price tag: raise taxes or issue more debt.

We’re not raising taxes. As we’ve profiled in the Digest, the Trump Administration’s “big, beautiful bill” (which Elon Musk calls “a disgusting abomination”) has passed the House and is now in the Senate.

It aims to make the tax cuts from the “2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act” (TCJA) permanent, including provisions like the higher standard deduction and lower tax brackets.

It also includes new tax relief measures, such as no taxes on tips, a deduction for auto loan interest, and tax relief for seniors.

So, that leaves “issuing more debt” – which is what we’ve been doing for the last handful of years.

As you can see below, we’ve had an explosion of treasury issuance since 2020.

Chart showing how the size of the Treasury's bond issuance has exploded since 2000

Source: MacroMicro

When new treasury issuance floods the market, the oversupply results in lower prices to entice buyers. And since bond prices and yields are inversely correlated, this means bond yields rise.

That’s not good for stocks or for the federal government’s debt service (and eventually, the value of your savings in dollars).

Back to Jeff:

Some of us wrinkled, gray-haired, old folks remember what it was like living in the 1970s.

We’ve seen how financial assets perform in a rising interest rate environment.

So, what do we do?

First, while we won’t dive into it today, we’ve been pounding the table for months: We invest in AI, robotics, and humanoids.

These stocks may face volatility and go through significant drawdowns, but the long-term upside is massive given the seismic tech shifts ahead.

Second, prepare for volatility. As we’ve covered in the Digest, Jeff believes a bear market is at our doorstep, with a potential bottom around 4,150 on the S&P this fall.

Most importantly, we seek out opportunity regardless of the market environment.

Even in bear markets, Jeff has shown how explosive rallies can deliver double- or triple-digit gains in days. And of course, there are also big profits in betting on downside moves.

Bottom line: double- and even triple digit returns – as the market moves up or down – are in play over very short timeframes. But let me show you.

Here are five of Jeff’s most recent trades in his service Delta Report, both long and short. Notice how quickly Jeff is in and out of these trades, as well as their returns:

  1. OSCR long trade on 05/06/2025, closed on 05/07/2025 for a profit of 97.10%
  2. WGMI long trade on 04/15/2025, closed on 04/24/2025 for a profit of 81.13%
  3. DELL short trade on 04/09/2025, closed on 04/11/2025 for a profit of 89.79%
  4. C short trade on 04/04/2025, closed on 04/09/2025 for a profit of 76.39%
  5. MRVL short trade on 04/04/2025, closed on 04/09/2025 for a profit of 90.72%

Now more than ever, you should consider adding this type of shorter-term, bi-directional trading to your toolkit. If you’d like to learn more about how, mark your calendar for next week, Wednesday, June 11 at 10 am ET for Jeff’s Countdown to Chaos event.

Jeff will dive into the details of how he trades. In short, it’s a “reversion-to-the-mean” trading strategy. Basically, when he sees that a stock or an index gets stretched too far in one direction or the other, he bets on the proverbial rubber-band snapping back.

Here’s Jeff:

We look to buy stocks that are deeply oversold, and we look to sell/short stocks that have pushed too far into overbought territory.

Next Wednesday, I’ll walk you through more details, as well as exactly what’s coming next… and how you can position yourself not just to survive but to profit in spades.

I’ll reveal 10 compelling opportunities flashing right now, as well as the powerful new tool I’ve built with TradeSmith to find them daily.

If you’ve ever wanted to turn volatility into your biggest advantage, join us for the Countdown to Chaos.

Stepping back, “this time it’s different” can be a dangerous assumption…unless it really is different

So, it is different today?

Back to Jeff to answer and take us out:

“Deficits don’t matter,” the younger folks shout at us older traders. “The national debt has grown from less than $1 trillion in 1982 to almost $37 trillion today, and nothing bad has happened.”

They ask, “What’s different this time?”

Take another look at the chart above…

This time, you’ll see the difference.

Have a good evening,

Jeff Remsburg



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