Archives June 2025

People are less worried that President Donald Trump’s tariff campaign will push up prices, though American consumers remain pessimistic by historical standards.

The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment, a survey of how people feel about the economy and their finances, rose in June for the first time in six months, the university said Friday.

The index rose 16% in June compared to May, according to a preliminary survey, but was still 20% below its level in December 2024. At a level of 60.5 in June, the index is still below the typical range of about 100 before the pandemic.

Feelings about most aspects of the economy, including inflation, improved amid news about trade talks possibly defusing the high tariffs that Trump has imposed in recent months. Economists closely watch measures of how people feel about the economy because sentiment can affect how much people are willing to spend. Consumer spending is the cornerstone of the economy, making up about 68% of the GDP.

“It’s welcome news to see a pickup in consumer sentiment after months of decline,” Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, wrote in a commentary. “Americans are relieved to see President Trump paring back his trade war and tariffs, but they remain on high alert for price increases at the store and gas pump.”

The decreased consumer pessimism echoes that of professional economists, many of whom have pared back their projections for how much damage Trump’s tariffs will cause the economy. Economists at Oxford Economics reduced their projected chances of a recession in the next year to 35% Thursday, though still over the baseline 15% chance of a recession in any given year.

The details of the survey had at least one red flag suggesting quite a bit of anxiety is still brewing. The share of people who said they’d be worse off financially in a year rose to 44% from 40% in May, eclipsing the 32% who expected to be better off. That was the highest share of people expecting to be worse off in the history of the survey going back to 1978.

 “It’s unsettling how many Americans believe they will be financially worse off in a year,” Long wrote.

Official measures of inflation have so far been milder than expected, and the job market has stayed resilient. Still, forecasters are bracing for the tariffs to drag down employment and push up inflation later in the year, as more companies pass along the cost of the import taxes on to customers.

This article was updated after publication to add information about the percentage of people expecting to be financially worse off in a year.

Adobe (ADBE) shares slumped Friday, as the design software developer failed to impress with its quarterly results, despite topping Wall Street estimates and boosting its full-year outlook. 

The stock led S&P 500 decliners by sinking nearly 6% in recent trading to roughly $390, leaving shares down 12% for 2025. 

“The key investor question remains when (if) AI innovation can move the needle,” wrote Morgan Stanley analysts, who added the quarter “brought little to quell the bear concern around AI contribution being unable to reaccelerate growth while bulls must remain patient for encouraging AI metrics to move the needle.”

Still, the analysts said they are “overweight” on the stock with a $510 target, expecting Adobe AI monetization to ramp up in the next fiscal year. 

Jefferies analysts, who reiterated a “buy” rating and $590 price target on Adobe’s potential growth driven by its AI offerings, echoed the comments, writing that while the firm’s earnings showed some AI progress, it was “maybe not enough to appease bears.”

Jefferies also noted that Adobe’s forecast, while higher, would imply a slowdown in growth in the fiscal fourth quarter, though they added they believe it “reflects management’s conservatism amid ongoing macro uncertainties.”

Bank of America, which raised its target to $475 from $424 on Adobe’s outlook and AI growth potential, said the company demonstrated “solid execution in a weaker software backdrop,” calling it a “break from this reporting season, with most software companies opting not to flow through upside to the full year.”

Citi analysts, however, were less convinced, citing worries growing competition and AI disruption could hold Adobe back. Citi issued a “neutral” rating for the stock and $465 target. 

Deutsche Bank analysts, who affirmed their “hold” rating and $475 target, said they “expect the stock to remain range-bound until the company demonstrates more tangible success from AI.”

Last night, as you’ve no doubt heard, Israel launched a large targeted air strike on Iran, hitting its Natanz atomic facility – a significant escalation in regional tensions.. 

Now stocks are crashing on fears that this could seriously heighten geopolitical instability around the globe..

But we’re here to tell you that, while those worries are understandable, this battle should remain contained to the region for now…

For long-term investors, history suggests that markets often recover from geopolitical shocks – offering opportunities amid the volatility. 

Here’s why we think that’s the case. 

What Just Happened: Israel’s Air Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Sites

Just hours ago, on Friday morning, Israel launched a major preemptive operation – dubbed Operation Rising Lion or Am KeLavi – blitzing Iran’s nuclear and missile sites, including the Natanz facility and key military leadership in Tehran. Reportedly, this attack killed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander Hossein Salami and two nuclear scientists in the process.

And while Israel has struck Iran before, this is the first time it’s directly hit a nuclear facility.

In April 2024, Israel carried out a limited strike near Isfahan, targeting air-defense radar that protected the Natanz nuclear site. Though close, this did not directly hit enrichment centrifuges or nuclear infrastructure. 

Then in October, Israel launched a larger missile and air campaign that hit air defenses, missile production, and even a nuclear-related research complex at Parchin – but once again, no direct attack on enrichment or centrifuge facilities.

Friday’s strike on core nuclear sites (and key officials) marks an escalation beyond earlier attacks.

As a result, some geopolitical experts are warning that ‘this time is different’ and that the Iranian response could be much more severe than what we saw throughout 2024. 

Such a severe response could risk disrupting oil supplies, spiking oil prices, reigniting global inflation, fracturing already-frayed geopolitical relations, plunging the global economy into a recession, and dragging everyone into World War III.

There is definitely a potential apocalyptic outcome at play here.

But history says it is very unlikely to unfold that way…

Why Iran Will Retaliate Via Oil

No one wants a full-blown war in the Middle East. That seems especially the case for Iran, which has already been weakened militarily and politically and probably wouldn’t stand a chance in an escalated conflict against both Israel and the United States.

But it also can’t just lay down and let Israel steamroll it with airstrikes. It needs to respond in some way.

And we believe that response will largely be to weaponize oil.

Historically, Iran has leveraged oil and maritime disruptions to escalate pressure during skirmishes. A salient example is the 2019 Abqaiq-Khurais drone strike, which knocked out about 5% of global oil production and led to a spike in global prices. 

Doing so now could be especially potent…

Because President Trump is intent on lowering U.S. oil prices and keeping inflation low so that he can secure rate cuts. But none of that will happen if oil prices spike to $80-plus. Inflation would stay high, and rate cuts would be off the table.

Iran knows this and, therefore, knows that it can go for the jugular here by weaponizing oil.

Disrupt supply chains and spike oil prices. Reignite global inflation. Pressure Trump to step in and tell Israel to back down.

We think that’s most likely Iran’s strategy here – which means short-term pain, long-term gain for stocks.

Tesla (TSLA) shares have risen this week as investors may be moving past the fiery public spat between CEO Elon Musk and President Donald Trump.

The electric vehicle maker’s shares are up 8% this week, recouping more than half of the ground lost last week in the wake of Trump and Musk’s social media shots at one another. The back and forth started as an argument over Trump’s “Big Beautiful” taxation-and-spending bill but spiraled into a now-deleted post in which Musk accused Trump of being in the “Epstein files,” referencing the late convicted sex trafficker. The public fight ended up costing Tesla a spot in the illustrious $1 trillion market capitalization club with a one-day drop of more than $150 billion. 

This week has seen a cooling of tensions, at least on social media, with Musk admitting he regrets some of his posts. He also reposted Trump’s criticism of California Gov. Gavin Newsom. 

Tesla’s stock has been on a roller coaster ride this year. Shares shed more than 35% of their value in the first quarter as sales slumped, tariffs hit the stock market, and controversy swirled around Musk. They staged a comeback in April and May after Musk said he would step back from Washington.

Shares are up 2% in recent trading Friday, and currently sit down 20% for 2025.

Shares of JBS advanced Friday morning in their New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) debut after years of complications for the Brazilian meatpacking giant to trade in U.S. public markets.

JBS shares, which have the ticker symbol “JBS,” opened at $13.65 on the New York Stock Exchange and recently were trading at $14.03, up 2%. The shares are dual listed with Brazil’s B3 exchange.

JBS, which is majority owner of U.S. poultry firm Pilgrim’s Pride (PPC), is the world’s largest meatpacker, with 2024 revenue of $77.18 billion and net income of $1.96 billion, according to a prospectus filed in April with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Both American meat producers and environmentalists had opposed JBS’ attempts to list in the country “because of concerns about corruption settlements, accusations of Amazon deforestation and its growing market share in the United States,” The New York Times reported last year.

However, CNBC reported that after President Donald Trump was re-elected last November, Pilgrim’s Pride donated $5 million to his inauguration committee, and the SEC subsequently approved its request to list on the NYSE.

U.S. equities slumped at midday on concerns of a possible wider Middle East war after Israel bombed Iran nuclear facilities, and Tehran responded with attack drones. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all were lower.

The fighting sent the price of oil soaring, and fears of higher fuel costs and travel disruptions drove down airline and cruise line stocks. Shares of United Airlines Holdings (UAL), Delta Air Lines (DAL), Carnival Corporation (CCL), and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) all tumbled.

Adobe (ADBE) shares sank when the software maker didn’t raise its guidance despite strong profit and sales.

Shares of Boeing (BA) fell for a second straight session following the deadly crash of one of its 787 Dreamliners in India. 

The jump in oil prices boosted shares of energy companies, including Diamondback Energy (FANG), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and Halliburton (HAL).

Shares of defense contractors Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Northrop Grumman (NOC) also advanced on the Middle East news.

Gold futures took off as the precious metal is seen as a safe-haven investment, sending shares of Newmont (NEM) and other gold miners higher. 

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose. The U.S. dollar was up on the euro, pound, and yen. Most major cryptocurrencies were lower. 

The states with the cheapest 30-year refinance rates Thursday were New York, California, Florida, Colorado, Connecticut, Texas, and Washington. These low-rate states registered refi averages between 6.87% and 6.98%.

Meanwhile, the states with Thursday’s most expensive 30-year refinance rates were West Virginia, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Kentucky, Hawaii, Wyoming, South Dakota, Rhode Island, Montana, and Alaska. These high-rate states registered refi averages between 7.10% and 7.13%.

Mortgage refinance rates vary by the state where they originate. Different lenders operate in different regions, and rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average loan size, and regulations. Lenders also have varying risk management strategies that influence the rates they offer.

Since rates vary widely across lenders, it’s always smart to shop around for your best mortgage option and compare rates regularly, no matter the type of home loan you seek.

National Mortgage Refinance Rate Averages

Rates for 30-year refinance mortgages have fallen for four days straight, completely reversing last week’s surge. Sliding another 5 basis points, the Thursday average is 7.04%—an improvement vs. the 7.32% May peak that was a 10-month high.

Back in March, however, rates plunged to a 6.71% average—their cheapest 2025 mark. And last September, 30-year refinance rates sank to a two-year low of 6.01%.