Archives June 2025

Written by the Market Insights Team

Double blow to USD: bearish forces at play

Antonio Ruggiero – FX & Macro Strategist

A double hit of disappointing trade news and heightened Fed rate cut expectations fueled a broad-based selloff in the dollar this week. The greenback fell against all G10 currencies, with the Bloomberg Dollar Index sliding as much as 0.8% yesterday – one of its weakest levels in three years. Overnight, the greenback received some support – DXY up 0.4% – as traders moved toward safe-haven demand sparked by heightened tensions in the Middle East.

Soft inflation data has reinforced expectations of further easing. Core CPI rose just 0.1% month-over-month, while PPI remained muted at +0.1% for May, pushing traders to price in additional rate cuts ahead of the Fed’s June 18 meeting.

Despite this, the dollar still holds a yield advantage against its peers, leading some to argue that the sharp decline may be overdone. However, we suspect that recent speculations over the next Fed chair has likely amplified the bearish move. Whether Bessent or another Trump appointee takes the helm, a more dovish stance seems inevitable – reinforcing the case that downward pressure on the dollar could prove more lasting than anticipated.

On the trade front, uncertainty remains high. No concrete news on a US-China deal, while Trump’s new threat of expanding steel tariffs starting June 23 on imported “steel derivative products”, were inevitable contributors to the dollar’s extended decline.

Sentiment vs. fundamentals: the euro’s fragile rise

Antonio Ruggiero – FX & Macro Strategist

The euro’s rally gained momentum this week, with EUR/USD comfortably surpassing April’s highs of $1.515 and briefly testing the $1.16 level—its highest since October 2021. However, the pair pared back some of its gains during Asian trading as geopolitical tensions escalated following Israel’s preemptive attack on Iran, amplifying risk-off sentiment.

While the broader trend remains bullish, signs of short-term exhaustion have emerged throughout May, with spot prices falling below shorter-term moving averages. The narrative remains clear: broader US sentiment is dictating euro price action. When positive trade developments emerge, as seen in May with the US negotiations with the EU and China, euro momentum fades. When sentiment deteriorates, as witnessed this week, the currency strengthens.

This latest push higher was amplified by a narrower rate gap favoring the euro, following soft inflation prints from the US. Although rate differentials have played a smaller role in driving EUR/USD recently, their impact was more pronounced this week as dovish Fed expectations combined with a hawkish ECB stance last week.

Meanwhile, Eurozone industrial activity for April, released later today, is expected to have slowed significantly, following a surge in March as producers rushed to adjust ahead of new tariffs. Data from Germany, France, and Spain have already shown signs of weakening momentum, with soft April figures hinting at a broader slowdown across the region. While a weak print is unlikely to have a major impact on the euro, it remains a valuable gauge of overall economic activity, offering insight into whether Lagarde’s recent hawkish stance is justified.

Geopolitical tensions and surging oil prices drag on pound

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

The British pound has weakened across the board, pressured by surging oil prices and plunging risk sentiment amid the Iran-Israel geopolitical flare-up. Sterling’s high beta to risk makes it particularly sensitive to global uncertainty, prompting investors to sell GBP in favour of safe-haven assets like the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, gold, and sovereign bonds. However, the US dollar has also absorbed a significant share of haven flows too, hence the sharp reversal from fresh 3-year highs clocked yesterday.

Beyond geopolitics, GBP/USD’s bullish outlook in the first half of 2025 was supported by stronger-than-expected UK economic performance, but recent data has disappointed. The UK-US economic surprise differential has narrowed, making it harder for GBP/USD to sustain gains above $1.36. If bearish sentiment on the dollar persists, fresh highs for GBP/USD remain possible, but UK domestic growth and fiscal risks could weigh on GBP/EUR until the UK’s economic outlook improves.

Looking ahead, the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to hold rates at 4.25% next week, but money markets have already priced in two additional rate cuts by year-end, following lackluster UK data. This has kept sterling’s gains in check, reinforcing investor caution.

For now, though, geopolitics remains the dominant market driver, with traders hesitant to hold risk assets over the weekend due to uncertainty surrounding further escalation. If oil prices continue soaring, we expect sterling weakness to persist.

Oil up almost 13% over the past 7 days

Table: 7-day currency trends and trading ranges

Key global risk events

Calendar: June 9-13

All times are in BST

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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.

Presales for the limited-edition 250th Anniversary U.S. Army 2025-W Proof American Silver Eagle begin today, June 13, at noon ET from the United States Mint.

Struck at the U.S. Mint’s West Point facility in one ounce of .999 fine silver, the new Silver Eagle features a special privy mark honoring the 250th anniversary of the U.S. Army, which falls on Saturday, June 14. Mintage for the coin is limited to 100,000.

Aside from the privy mark, the coin shares the same specifications and imagery as the standard annual proof Silver Eagle, the 2025 version of which debuted in January. This includes the classic “Walking Liberty” design by Adolph A. Weinman, featured on the obverse (heads side).

The historic design, originally seen on the 1916–1947 half dollar, portrays Liberty in full stride, enveloped in folds of the flag, with her right hand extended and branches of laurel and oak in her left. It was adopted for the American Silver Eagle series in 1986 and has appeared on the coins ever since. In 2021, the Mint introduced subtle modifications to the image, using historical assets and modern technology to more closely reflect Weinman’s original vision.

Obverse inscriptions include “LIBERTY,” “IN GOD WE TRUST,” and “2025.” The special privy mark, which incorporates elements of the U.S. Army’s official seal, appears to the right of Liberty.

The reverse (tails side) design, introduced in 2021, features an eagle as it approaches a landing, carrying an oak branch as if to add it to a nest. Created by artist Emily Damstra and sculpted by Michael Gaudioso, this design replaced John Mercanti’s original heraldic eagle, which had appeared on the coin since the series launched in 1986. Inscriptions on the reverse read “UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,” “E PLURIBUS UNUM,” “1 OZ. FINE SILVER,” and “ONE DOLLAR.”

As an anti-counterfeiting measure, each coin includes a reeded edge variation.

Coin Specifications

Ordering, Price, and More 2025 Privy-Marked Silver Eagles

Orders for the 250th Anniversary United States Army 2025-W Proof American Silver Eagle will be accepted directly from the U.S. Mint through its American Eagle product page.

For the first 24 hours, the coin will have an initial household order limit of one, recently reduced from three. Shipments are expected to begin July 29.

The coin is priced at $105, reflecting a $10 increase over the standard proof Silver Eagle issued earlier this year, which remains available and has recorded sales of 265,950 through June 8.

In addition to this release, three other limited-edition 2025-W Proof American Silver Eagles are scheduled to launch later this year, each featuring a unique privy mark. These include Navy and Marine Corps editions, to be produced at the San Francisco and Philadelphia Mints, respectively, in recognition of their 250th anniversaries on October 13 and November 10. The other coin, set for release on August 20, is listed as featuring a “Laser Beam” privy mark.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the real estate market boomed as record-low interest rates and lifestyle shifts created intense competition that helped drive housing prices to record highs across the U.S.

Now, however, home values are falling in some areas, which could put some buyers underwater, meaning they owe more than their homes are worth. Falling home prices aren’t rare—markets often have ups and downs—but if the recent changes put you underwater, that can be concerning and limit financial flexibility. Fortunately, there are ways to get above the surface.

What Does It Mean to Be Underwater on a Mortgage?

Being underwater on a mortgage means the loan amount is higher than the home’s current market value, so if you sold it, you couldn’t fully pay off the mortgage with the proceeds.

Being underwater can happen when buyers pay high prices. That can happen if there is overbidding as some experienced during Covid, and if the market softens. Then, homeowners might see their home value increase and owe more than their mortgage amount. 

Putting in a low down payment also increases the risk of being underwater, as the mortgage funds more of the home’s value. So, even a slight dip in prices can create this dynamic, whereas with a standard 20% down payment, prices would have to fall by over 20% to put you underwater.

Being underwater can create both financial and psychological challenges. For one, it limits your ability to sell your home, as you might not have enough money to cover the shortfall while also affording all the costs associated with buying a new home. You also typically can not refinance your mortgage or access equity, since you actually have negative equity if you’re underwater.

The COVID Housing Bubble—What Happened?

A convergence of factors during the early days of the pandemic caused many homebuyers to pay higher prices.

For one, interest rates plummeted as the Federal Reserve tried to boost the economy during this period. However, this contributed to ultra-low mortgage rates that enabled many homeowners to increase their buying power. Paying tens of thousands of dollars over ask might not have seemed like a big deal if you were saving so much money on interest charges compared to historical mortgages.

Meanwhile, demand outpaced supply, with buyers eager to use their purchasing power and with changes like remote work causing spikes in home searches in certain suburbs that may have previously been more affordable. At the same time, housing inventory remained tight, in part because previous years of limited home building meant that supply could not keep up with a growing population and the needs of young adults shifting from renting to owning, even with construction picking up during the pandemic era.

This all led to occurrences like bidding wars and waived contingencies that caused some homebuyers to pay more. 

Is It Common to Be Underwater on Your Mortgage?

In several major markets, housing prices peaked around 2022-2023 and have dipped over 10% since. That said, some housing markets continue to climb, reducing the odds of homeowners there going underwater.

For example, some Sun Belt cities such as Austin boomed during the pandemic but have been cooling lately. In May 2022, median Austin sale prices peaked at $667,000 and have since fallen to $562,495, a drop of over 15%. In New Orleans, prices are down about 10% since June 2022.

Another pandemic-era hotspot, Boise, dropped around 23% from a peak in May 2022 to a recent low in February 2024. Although it has since recovered somewhat, it is now down about 8% from the peak.

So, if you bought a home in one of these areas or several others that have suffered a post-pandemic slump, you might already be underwater, or close to it.

That said, being underwater is relatively rare, as home equity levels remain strong in general. In the U.S., the percentage of seriously underwater homes—meaning the homeowner owes at least 25% more than the current estimated property value—is 2.8% for the first quarter of 2025, though that’s up from 2.5% the previous quarter.

What You Can Do If You’re Underwater

While being underwater can feel scary, it’s not necessarily insurmountable. Some options, depending on if you’re planning to move or just want to get out of the hole, include:

• Keep up with mortgage payments: If you’re not looking to move, continuing to pay your mortgage as usual will build equity and help get you above the surface over time, especially if home prices rise again. 
• Add value: If you’re planning to move or want more flexibility, you could also make home improvements that build equity by raising your home’s value, but be mindful that many renovations do not have a positive ROI. 
• Rent your home: If you want to generate extra income and delay selling, you might rent out your home until you get back above water.
• Contact your lender or assistance programs: Your lender might be able to help you out, such as by putting your mortgage into forbearance if you’re dealing with a hardship, which can buy you time to improve your finances and later chip away at your mortgage balance. Other assistance programs, such as from your state or local government, might also help if you’re in a difficult financial situation.

How to Protect Yourself Going Forward

Whether you’re currently underwater or concerned about this situation, you can protect yourself in several ways. One is to be patient and not panic and sell. Even if home prices are dipping, that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a good decision to move. Try to act rationally and consult experts for their advice, and with time, you might be able to get ahead again.

Another strategy is to build a financial buffer, ideally before times get tough, as emergency savings can be used to make extra mortgage payments, for example, to get out of the hole.

Tracking your home’s value, such as through online appraisal tools or insights from a local realtor can help you understand the gravity of your situation. If you’re getting close to going underwater, for example, you might decide it’s best to refinance now, such as to a shorter loan term with lower rates to save money overall and build up equity faster.

The Bottom Line

Although going underwater on a mortgage can be scary or frustrating if you bought during a Covid-era peak, that doesn’t mean you will suffer a permanent loss. History suggests that asset prices rise over time. So if you can ride it out, your home’s value may go up in the future, and if you keep making mortgage payments, you can build up positive equity. Instead of panicking, know your options and consider how you can make rational, proactive choices.

Adobe (ADBE) delivered fiscal second-quarter earnings that topped analysts’ expectations as sales climbed to a record high, and raised its full-year outlook.

The Creative Cloud developer posted record quarterly revenue of $5.87 billion, up 11% year-over-year and above the analyst consensus from Visible Alpha. Its adjusted net income of $2.17 billion, or $5.06 per share, rose from $2.02 billion, or $4.48 per share, in the year-ago quarter, beating estimates. 

The gains came as Adobe’s Digital Media arm, which includes Creative Cloud subscriptions, saw its revenue rise 11% to $4.35 billion, exceeding analysts’ expectations.

Looking ahead, Adobe raised its full-year revenue outlook to $23.5 billion to $23.6 billion from $23.3 billion to $23.55 billion. It sees adjusted earnings per share of $20.50 to $20.70, compared to $20.20 to $20.50 previously. The tech giant projected third-quarter adjusted earnings of $5.15 to $5.20 per share on revenue of $5.88 billion to $5.93 billion, above consensus projections.

Adobe shares ticked 1% lower in after-hours trading following the release. The stock was down about 7% for 2025 through Thursday’s close.

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Oracle (ORCL) shares soared to a record high Thursday after the enterprise software giant’s quarterly results and sales outlook sailed past Wall Street expectations.

The company said it expects “dramatically higher” revenue growth this fiscal year, driven by strength in its cloud infrastructure segment, which is sees growing more than 70%. The bullish outlook prompted several analysts to lift their price targets, with KeyBanc analysts saying in a note to clients that Oracle’s growth projections were “stunning.”

Oracle shares jumped 13% to close Thursday at just under $200, pacing S&P 500 gainers. The stock has risen nearly 70% from its early-April low and is up 20% so far in 2025, easily outpacing the S&P 500 over those periods.

Below, we take a closer look at Oracle’s chart and use technical analysis to identify importan price levels worth watching out for.

Breakaway Gap to All-Time High

Oracle shares forged an inverse head and shoulders on the chart between March and May before breaking out above the pattern’s neckline earlier this month. That momentum accelerated on Thursday, with the stock staging a breakaway gap on heavy trading volume.

While the relative strength index confirms bullish price momentum, it also warns of extreme overbought conditions with a reading above 85, potentially leading to short-term profit-taking.

Let’s use the bars pattern tool to provide insight as to where the stock’s price may be headed next and also identify important support levels worth watching during retracements.

Bars Pattern Analysis

To forecast how price action on Oracle’s chart may play out, we can apply the bars pattern tool to project future trends.

When applying the analysis, we extract the price bars comprising the stock’s longer-term move higher from June to December last year and overlay them from the low of Thursday’s breakout move. This projects a potential upside price target of around $275 and indicates the trend may last until mid-December if price action rhymes with the prior move.

We selected this earlier trend as it also commenced following a 13% earnings-driven breakaway gap after last year’s corresponding quarterly report.

Important Support Levels to Watch

The first support level to watch sits at $180. A retracement to this level would likely attract buying interest near a brief period of consolidation preceding Thursday’s breakout, which also closely aligns with the prominent October and February peaks.

Finally, a more significant pullback could see Oracle shares revisit lower support around $154. Investors may seek entry points in this region near a horizontal line that connects a range of corresponding trading activity on the chart extending back to last September.

The comments, opinions, and analyses expressed on Investopedia are for informational purposes only. Read our warranty and liability disclaimer for more info.

As of the date this article was written, the author does not own any of the above securities.

Major U.S. equities indexes edged higher after new data revealed a smaller-than-anticipated uptick in wholesale prices last month. The second tame inflation report this week was welcome news for investors hoping the Federal Reserve will resume cutting interest rates sooner rather than later.

The S&P 500 advanced 0.4% on Thursday. Both the Dow and the Nasdaq ended the session about 0.2% higher.

Oracle (ORCL) shares skyrocketed 13.3%, gaining the most of any S&P 500 stock, after the enterprise software giant posted better-than-expected quarterly sales and profits. Cloud infrastructure revenue surged 52% year-over-year to $3 billion, and Oracle said it expects growth in its cloud infrastructure segment to exceed 70% in fiscal 2026. Following the upbeat sales outlook, analysts at Deutsche Bank and KeyBanc lifted their price targets on Oracle stock.

Gold prices rose, boosted by a tense geopolitical backdrop and optimism that interest-rate cuts could be forthcoming from the Federal Reserve. Shares of Newmont (NEM), the world’s largest gold producer by volume, jumped 4.9% on Thursday.

Medical products distributor Cardinal Health (CAH) lifted its full-year profit forecast and increased its long-term growth expectations for its Pharmaceutical and Specialty Solutions segment. During its investor day event, Cardinal also announced several strategic initiatives, including the launch of a new multi-specialty Management Services Organization platform, investments in biopharma solutions, and plans for a new distribution center. Cardinal Health shares added 4.6%.

Boeing (BA) shares lost 4.8%, logging the S&P 500’s weakest performance on Thursday, after one of the manufacturer’s 787-8 aircraft carrying more than 200 passengers crashed in India. Shares of GE Aerospace (GE), which supplied the plane’s engine, and Boeing supplier Spirit AeroSystems (SPR) also lost ground.

Shares of Coinbase Global (COIN), operator of the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange, slipped 3.8% as the price of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) slid. Last month, Coinbase became the first crypto-native company to join the S&P 500, replacing Discover Financial Services after the credit card issuer’s merger with Capital One (COF).

Shares of marketing and corporate communications firm Omnicom (OMC) fell 2.9%. Omnicom’s proposed merger with Interpublic Group (IPG), which would form the world’s largest advertising company, remains under the regulatory microscope. The New York Times on Thursday reported that the Federal Trade Commission might condition its merger approval on the combined entity promising it won’t boycott platforms for their political leanings.

Oracle (ORCL) shares soared to a record high Thursday, a day after the cloud computing giant said it expects “dramatically higher” revenue growth in its current fiscal year, prompting several analysts to lift their price targets.

The stock surged over 13% to close at an all-time high of $199.86 Thursday, leading gains on the S&P 500. With Thursday’s jump, the stock has added about 20% in 2025 so far.

KeyBanc said Oracle’s growth projections were “stunning” in a note to clients following the company’s quarterly results and raised its price target to $225 from $200. The bank pointed to comments from CEO Safra Catz that Oracle expects cloud infrastructure growth to increase from 50% in fiscal 2025 to more than 70% in fiscal 2026. Catz also called for a doubling in remaining performance obligations, a measure of revenue from contracts that has yet to be realized.

Deutsche Bank went even further, moving to $240 from $200 and calling Oracle’s results a “watershed cloud moment.” UBS meanwhile raised its target to $225 and Jefferies moved to $220, both from $200.

“Oracle is clearly winning on several fronts, most of which we believe is still largely under appreciated,” Deutsche Bank said. 

This article has been updated since it was first published to reflect more recent share price values.

Oklo (OKLO) shares lost ground Thursday after jumping nearly 30% the previous session following news the nuclear power company had won an Air Force contract. 

Today’s slump came after Oklo late Wednesday announced a public offering of $400 million in common stock. The news partially offset the investor optimism sparked when the company said earlier Wednesday it had tentatively landed a “mission-critical” contract to provide nuclear energy to the Eielson Air Force Base in Alaska.

Oklo shares fell 5% to around $64.50 on Thursday. The stock has tripled in value since the start of 2025, fueled recently by President Donald Trump signing new executive orders aimed at boosting the nuclear energy industry. Stocks in the nuclear energy sector have risen over the last year due to the anticipation of growing energy needs to run data centers and train artificial intelligence models.

Below, we take a closer look at the technicals on Oklo’s chart and point out key price levels that investors will likely be watching.

Flag Pattern Breakout

Since bottoming out around the 200-day moving average (MA) in early April, Oklo shares have resumed their longer-term uptrend.

More recently, the stock consolidated in a bullish flag before breaking out above the pattern during Wednesday’s trading session. Importantly, the buying occurred on above-average volume, indicating that larger investors participated in the move higher.

It’s worth noting that, while the relative strength index confirms strong price momentum, the indicator has moved into territory that has coincided with brief consolidation periods in the stock over the past eight months.

Let’s apply technical analysis to forecast how a new move higher may play out and also identify key support levels worth watching during potential pullbacks.

Bars Pattern Analysis

Investors can forecast where Oklo shares may be heading next by using bars pattern analysis, a technique that analyzes prior trends to project future directional price movements.

When applying the analysis to Oklo’s chart, we take the stock’s impulsive move higher last October and overlay it from the flag pattern’s breakout point. This projects a bullish target of around $135 and indicates the trend may last throughout most of June.

We selected this prior trend as it followed an earlier flag pattern on the chart, providing an indication of how a new move from a similar pattern may take shape.

Key Support Levels Worth Watching

The first support level to watch sits around $55. A drop to this level could attract buying interest near the flag pattern’s breakout point and the stock’s prominent February swing high.

Finally, a more significant drop could see Oklo shares revisit lower support at the $32 level. Investors who seek a deeper correction could look for entry points in this region near minor peaks in January and March, which also closely align with the 50-day MA.

The comments, opinions, and analyses expressed on Investopedia are for informational purposes only. Read our warranty and liability disclaimer for more info.

As of the date this article was written, the author does not own any of the above securities.

Oracle (ORCL) stock hit an all-time high as it led S&P 500 gainers Thursday, a day after the tech giant’s fiscal fourth-quarter results topped analysts’ estimates.

The shares surged over 13% to close at a record high of $199.86 Thursday, bringing their year-to-date gains to about 20%.

CEO Safra Catz said the company’s fiscal 2025 was a “very good year,” but said she believes fiscal 2026 “will be even better as our revenue growth rates will be dramatically higher.”

The report made several analysts more bullish on Oracle, as the average price target compiled by Visible Alpha climbed to about $200, up roughly $26 from what it was on Wednesday morning, hours before the earnings report was released.

Thursday’s rally was also enough to send Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison back to the title of world’s second-richest person, according to Forbes.

This article has been updated since it was first published to reflect more recent share price values and analyst targets.