Archives May 2025

Tesla (TSLA) shares come into the week trading at their highest levels in more than two months, as the stock has gained ground in each of the last three weeks.

The stock started gaining traction late last month after CEO Elon Musk, during the company’s first quarter earnings call, said he would spend less time at the Department of Government Efficiency, or “DOGE,” and more time at his job at the company.

More recently, Tesla shares received a boost after the Trump administration announced a trade agreement with the U.K. and suggested that more were on the way. Trade news will likely set the tone this week also after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer flagged “substantial progress,” in U.S.-China trade talks held over the weekend, adding that details would be discussed on Monday.

Tesla shares have recovered about 40% from last month’s low. However, the stock is still down 26% since the start of the year through Friday’s close, due in part to concerns that Musk’s involvement with the Trump administration could be weighing on the automaker’s sales.

Below, we take a closer look at Tesla’s chart and use technical analysis to point out crucial price levels that investors will likely be watching.

Triple Bottom Confirmation

Tesla shares forged a triple bottom on the chart between early March and late April, setting the stage for a bullish reversal.

Indeed, the stock confirmed the pattern in Friday’s trading session, breaking out above the formation’s neckline and closing above the closely watched 200-day moving average (MA). Moreover, the relative strength index signals bullish price momentum and sits comfortably below overbought levels to provide ample room for further upside.

Let’s identify two crucial overhead areas on Tesla’s chart where the shares may encounter resistance and also locate key support levels to monitor during future retracements.

Crucial Overhead Areas to Watch

Tesla shares gained nearly 5% on Friday to around $298, the highest closing level since Feb. 25.

Further buying this week could see Tesla bulls drive a move up to the $360 area. Investors who have accumulated shares at lower prices may look for exit points at this location near a trendline that connects last year’s November twin peaks with this year’s February countertrend swing high.

Buying above this area may see a rally toward $430. This level on the chart could provide selling pressure near the January peaks, which also closely align with the trough of the first pullback after the stock set its record high last December.

Key Support Levels to Monitor

The first level to watch during retracements sits around $289. This area on the chart provides a confluence floor from the nearby 200-day MA and the triple bottom pattern’s neckline, which may flip from an area of prior resistance into future support.

Finally, selling below this level could see Tesla shares revisit lower support at the $225 level. Investors may seek buying opportunities in this region near the three prominent troughs that mark the triple bottom’s low.

The comments, opinions, and analyses expressed on Investopedia are for informational purposes only. Read our warranty and liability disclaimer for more info.

As of the date this article was written, the author does not own any of the above securities.

President Donald Trump says he is looking to reduce the price of prescription drugs this week.

In a post on Truth Social Sunday evening, Trump said he would sign an executive order Monday morning to ensure the U.S. pays the same price as the lowest costs paid by any other nation. He said he expects the order will reduce the cost of pharmaceuticals by 30% to 80%.

“Our Country will finally be treated fairly, and our citizens [sic] Healthcare Costs will be reduced by numbers never even thought of before,” he wrote in the post. “Additionally, on top of everything else, the United States will save TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS.”

It is unclear if the executive order is a tariff on pharmaceuticals that Trump has suggested since February. The president did not provide further details about how the order would be executed.

Trump is expected to sign the order at 9 a.m. Eastern Time.

Both U.S. and Chinese officials described the weekend’s trade talks as productive, providing hope that the world’s largest economies could end the trade spat spurred in recent weeks.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer spoke with reporters Sunday after trade discussions with Chinese officials ended in Switzerland. Bessent said “substantial progress” was made during the talks and that more details would be released Monday.

On the Chinese side, Vice Premier He Lifeng said the weekend’s discussions were “an important first step” in negotiations.

Going into the weekend, traders hoped the talks would be a turning point for the two largest economies, which have recently engaged in tit-for-tat tariffs. The ratcheting of import duties resulted in 145% tariffs on Chinese goods coming into the U.S. China has levied tariffs of 125% on U.S. goods.

S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq futures all rose more than 1% after the positive talk from government officials.

Written by Steven Dooley, Head of Market Insights, and Shier Lee Lim, Lead FX and Macro Strategist

US-China trade talks report progress

The Australian dollar was higher in early Monday trade with reports of progress in US-China trade talks boosting sentiment.

US and China representatives met over the weekend in Vienna, Switzerland.

While no specific trade outcomes were announced, the two countries agree to a new negotiation forum led by US Treasury Secretary Soctt Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng.

The Aussie and kiwi both gained due to their sensitivity to global trade, but otherwise the US dollar was mostly higher.

On Friday, the AUD/USD has slipped to one-week lows before rebounding later the session.

The NZD/USD fell to three-week lows on Friday before later recovering. 

Aussie, kiwi see momentum shift

While the trade news has seen a short-term boost this morning, this week remains make-or-break for the Aussie and kiwi dollars.

After significant rallies – the AUD/USD jumped 10.1% from the early April lows while the NZD/USD is up 9.8% in the same period – both currencies have recently lost momentum.

Most significant, over the last week, both the AUD/USD and NZD/USD both saw shifts in the MACD indicator, a key measure of momentum.

As a result, markets will be closely watching how the pairs trade this week. For the AUD/USD, a break below 0.6340 will be seen a negative sign that could signal further losses.

For NZD/USD, a break below 0.5870 will see the market move into a medium-term downtrend.

US inflation, Australian jobs in focus this week

Looking to the week ahead, key inflation readings across major economies will be closely monitored this week.

In the US, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April is due on Tuesday, with the year-on-year rate expected to remain steady at 2.4%, while the month-on-month rate is forecasted to tick up slightly to 0.3% from -0.1%.

Australia’s employment data on Thursday could influence RBA expectations, with consensus forecasting a 25k increase in employment and an unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%.

In the US, initial jobless claims will be released on Thursday, offering further signals on the state of the labor market.

Additionally, US consumer sentiment will be gauged through the preliminary release of the University of Michigan’s Sentiment Index on Friday, expected to show a slight improvement to 53 from 52.2.

Aussie, kiwi climb on trade news

Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges  

Key global risk events

Calendar: 12 – 17 May

Have a question? [email protected]

*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.

Shares of Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) rose in premarket trading Friday, a day after the steakhouse chain’s comparable sales results and outlook came in above analysts’ estimates.

Texas Roadhouse reported first-quarter comparable sales at company restaurants rose by 3.5%, while analysts polled by Visible Alpha had expected 3.0% growth. The restaurant operator added they are up 5% for the first five weeks of the current quarter after it increased prices by roughly 1.4% in April, while analysts are looking for 4.1% growth for Q2.

The Louisville, Ky.-based chain reported earnings per share of $1.70 on revenue that rose 10% year-over-year to $1.45 billion. Analysts had expected $1.76 and $1.44 billion, respectively.

The company now sees 2025 “commodity cost inflation of approximately 4%, including the estimated impact of tariffs.” Last quarter, the company said it expected commodity cost inflation of 3% to 4% this year.

“We are pleased to report that our operators successfully navigated us through a number of challenges this quarter and once again delivered traffic growth across all three of our brands,” CEO Jerry Morgan said. “During this period of economic uncertainty, as always, we remain focused on the fundamentals of our business and on what we can control, which is creating an environment where our Roadies want to work and our guests want to dine.”

Shares advanced less than 2% before the opening bell. They entered Friday down about 4% since the start of the year.

U.S. stock futures are pointing higher after indexes rallied Thursday on news of a U.S. trade deal with the U.K.; bitcoin surges back above $100,000; Expedia Group (EXPE) stock plunges in premarket trading after the company warns of weak U.S. travel demand; Pinterest (PINS) shares are jumping after the social media site’s revenue and monthly active user figures top estimates; and shares of Affirm Holdings (AFRM) fall after the Buy Now, Pay Later firm delivers an underwhelming current-quarter revenue outlook. Here’s what investors need to know today.

1. US Stock Futures Point Higher Following Rally on UK Trade Deal

U.S. stock futures are pointing higher after indexes surged in the prior session on President Donald Trump’s announcement of a trade deal with the United Kingdom. Nasdaq futures are 0.3% higher after the tech-heavy index added 1.1% yesterday, while S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures also are slightly higher after those indexes added 0.6% Thursday. Oil and gold futures also are rising. Yields on the 10-year Treasury note are little changed.

2. Bitcoin Surges Back Above $100,000 Threshold

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is surging more than 2% to trade near $103,000 as the cryptocurrency moved above the $100,000 level for the first time since February. The rise comes after the cryptocurrency fell sharply between February and April amid tariffs uncertainty. With the latest surge, bitcoin is nearly 40% above last month’s low and up 10% since the start of the year. Some cryptocurrency stocks are advancing in premarket trading, with bitcoin buyer Strategy (MSTR) moving up by nearly 2%, while miner Riot Platforms (RIOT) is similarly higher. Coinbase (COIN) shares are more than 1% lower after the cryptocurrency exchange posted underwhelming earnings.

3. Expedia Stock Sinks on Weak US Travel Demand Warning

Expedia Group (EXPE) stock is dropping 10% in premarket trading after the travel booking service’s first-quarter results came in worse than expected and it lowered its full-year outlook amid weak U.S. demand. The company reported revenue of $2.99 billion and $31.45 billion in total bookings, both up from last year but below what analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha had projected. The company trimmed its full-year forecast for both metrics to 2% to 4% growth from 4% to 6%. CEO Ariane Gorin said Expedia managed to grow bookings and revenue “despite weaker than expected demand in the U.S.” as consumer sentiment has worsened amid tariff-fueled uncertainty.

4. Pinterest Stock Surges as Revenue, Active Users Top Estimates

Pinterest (PINS) shares are up by 14% in premarket trading after the social media site reported first-quarter revenue and global active monthly user figures that came in above analysts’ estimates. The company reported earnings per share of $0.01 on revenue that increased 17% year-over-year on a constant currency basis to $855.0 million, both above Visible Alpha consensus. The firm’s monthly active users increased 10% to a record 570 million, also topping estimates. Pinterest shares entered Friday down 4% year-to-date.

5. Affirm Stock Falls on Soft Revenue Outlook

Shares of Affirm Holdings (AFRM) are falling more than 6% in premarket trading after the Buy Now, Pay Later firm delivered a weak current-quarter revenue outlook. The company also projected second-quarter revenue between $815 million and $845 million, with the midpoint coming in below estimates of analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha. Its first-quarter revenue of $783.1 million also came up short. However, Affirm reported profit of a penny per share when a loss of 2 cents per share was expected, and gross merchandise volume of $8.6 billion also topped projections.

Editor’s Note: On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
chose to keep interest rates steady. Powell and the FOMC are standing still.
They’re not in panic mode, and I believe that’s the correct position.

Furthermore, my colleague, Luke Lango, sees a summer rally
approaching – and he’s built an easy-to-use quant tool that you can use to
profit. Every month, he’ll tell you what stocks to buy and sell based on a
number of factors, including growing revenue, trending upward and gaining analysts’ attention.

The tool is called Auspex, and you can learn more about it by clicking here.

Now, I’ll let Luke explain more about the summer rally that is fast approaching…

Everyone was expecting fireworks on Wednesday afternoon…

Here’s what I said on Wednesday, before the FOMC rate decision announcement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference, in the Daily Notes I send my paid-up members…

Powell’s press conference will provide some much-needed clarity as to what the Fed will do in June. He will either sound dovish and open the door for a rate cut – which will send stocks soaring higher. Or he will sound hawkish and sound hesitant on cutting rates – which will send stocks plunging lower.

But instead, Powell and the FOMC were… nothing but damp sparklers.

They kept their benchmark rate unchanged, at a target of 4.25% to 4.5%. That was as expected. The fireworks were supposed to come from the Fed’s statement and Powell’s press conference.

However, Powell said the same thing he’s been saying for months.

“We don’t think we need to be in a hurry,” he said with regard to the potential for cutting rates. He said that there are cases where it would be appropriate to cut… or to stand pat.

The stock market’s response was damp as well. All three major indices ended the day less than a percentage point up from where they started.

No “soaring” or “plunging.”

And while that may be ho-hum news for set-it-and-forget-it index investors, it’s great news for self-directed investors.

So, let’s do a few things today…

Let’s review how we got here… and why I think we’re headed into a summer rally.

Plus, I’ll tell you why this will remain a stock picker’s market despite that rally.

Also, let’s take a peek at the quant tool my team and I built to help us find the best stocks in the market. It works in volatile times like these… and it will work even better once we get past them.

Plus, I’ll reveal one stock my tool and I picked that was a winner for us last month… and that we picked again this month.

This underappreciated “space economy” play is already blasting off and outperforming the market this month as well…

The Building Summer Rally

Stocks just endured one of the fastest and most violent crashes in modern history.

In early April, stocks plummeted 10% in just two days.

As a matter of fact, until last week, stocks were tracking for their third-worst year on record after dropping more than 12% in the first 74 trading days…

But then came the biggest comeback rally in the past 100 years.

Signs that the global trade war is rapidly deescalating blew strong winds into Wall Street’s sails – sparking a historic rally. And, just as fast as they crashed, stocks staged an epic rebound.

And, I believe, momentum is building.

Let’s start with May, when we expect the “trade dam” to break.

The pressure that’s been building since “Liberation Day” is finally forcing a breakthrough on the trade front. 

Over the past week, multiple White House officials have suggested that several trade deals are nearly complete – especially with key allies. We just heard about one with the United Kingdom Thursday morning, in fact (that lit off some fireworks).

We expect more of those deals to be announced in May.

They’ll do more than just ease tariffs. They’ll slam the brakes on inflation fears, cool the geopolitical heat, and give the Fed the economic clarity it’s been waiting for.

Then we’ll move into June, where two catalysts will converge – and ignite a major market rally.

First, we expect a terrible May jobs report. That’s good news. 

Weak jobs data will show the true employment cost of the “Liberation Day” tariff blitz, which began just after the last payrolls survey.

This will give the Fed every reason it needs to pull the trigger on its first rate cut of 2025 at the June FOMC meeting… or at least provide the sort of post-meeting fireworks we were looking for on Wednesday.

But that’s not all.

As trade deals are signed, pressure will mount on the U.S. and China to come to terms. We believe the nations will announce a framework deal, which would serve as the clearest sign yet that the trade war is winding down.

Then in July, we will get the final piece of the puzzle: tax cuts. 

We expect Congress to finalize a massive tax reform bill extending – and potentially expanding –the 2017 tax cuts. By then, lawmakers will have the cover to push this bill through.

These positive catalysts will lead us into the 2Q earnings season, which kicks off in mid-July. Those reports should reflect easing cost pressures, improved demand visibility, and a surge in forward confidence. As such, we expect strong earnings, better guidance, and reaccelerating growth.

But make no mistake…

The Stock Picker’s Stock Picker’s Top May Pick

This isn’t a “buy everything and hope for the best” market.

Volatility is the new norm. We’re living in the Age of Chaos

Traditional buy-and-hold strategies don’t work like they used to.

And so, my team and I have developed what we believe is the ultimate stock-picking engine — a quantitative, machine-driven screener that helps you get in, get out, and get paid month after month in this Age of Chaos.

It scans the market for the rarest type of opportunity – stocks that are simultaneously:

• Growing earnings, revenues, and margins.
• Trending up across short- and long-term technicals.
• Getting attention from both analysts and traders.

These are the strongest stocks in the entire market at any given moment.

Then my team and I make the final call on which of those stocks we recommend to our subscribers.

And we’ve stress-tested it.

Over the past five years, it could have returned 1,054% — outpacing the S&P 500 by more than 10X. Even in rough stretches, it’s been able to sidestep crashes and capitalize on rebounds. In 2024, from July through December, while the S&P barely moved, it could have delivered a 24.3% return.

This model doesn’t require you to perform hours of research or constant monitoring. Just 30 minutes a month is enough to follow its signals.

In April, one of the most volatile months in stock market history, the S&P 500 dipped into bear market territory and then clawed its way back out to a just under 1% loss.

At the same time, one of this tool’s picks was Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM). In April, it took off for a 13.4% gain.

Our proprietary stock screener picked this aerospace and defense component specialist again earlier this month… and we agreed. So far in May, HWM shares are up 6.2% (and the top performer in our portfolio). Meanwhile, the S&P is up less than 2%.

We took this tool out of the “lab” and started using it live in June 2024. Since then, we’ve put it to the test in 10 monthly portfolios.

And with results like I just showed you with Howmet, it’s no surprise that this quant screener has, in six of those months, handily beat the market… and tied it once.

To show you what else this tool can do, I’ve participated in an event where I show you a lot more about how this tool works. It’s free to viewers.

Go here to watch it now.

Sincerely, 

Luke Lango

Senior Analyst, InvestorPlace