Archives May 2025

The four U.S. states with the cheapest 30-year mortgage refinance rates Friday were New York, Florida, California, and Texas, which also happen to be the states with the largest populations, accounting for about 30% of the national population.

After those four states, the lowest refi rates are available in Massachusetts, Georgia, North Carolina, Illinois, Minnesota, and Tennessee. The ten lowest-rate states registered averages between 6.97% and 7.11%.

Meanwhile, the states with the highest Friday refinance rates were West Virginia, Washington, D.C., Alaska, South Carolina, South Dakota, Hawaii, North Dakota, and Oregon. The range of 30-year refi averages for these states was 7.19% to 7.26%.

Mortgage refinance rates vary by the state where they originate. Different lenders operate in different regions, and rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average loan size, and regulations. Lenders also have varying risk management strategies that influence the rates they offer.

Since rates vary widely across lenders, it’s always smart to shop around for your best mortgage option and compare rates regularly, no matter the type of home loan you seek.

National Mortgage Refinance Rate Averages

Rates for 30-year refinance mortgages had been bobbing modestly for a week. But Friday saw the the national rate average shoot up 11 basis points to 7.14%. In early April, 30-year refi rates surged a dramatic 40 basis points in a week to notch a peak of 7.31%—the highest level since July 2024.

In March, however, the 30-year refinance average sank to 6.71%, its cheapest level of 2025. And back in September, rates plunged to a two-year low of 6.01%.

Tom Yeung here with your Sunday Digest. 

Last month, I wrote about five stocks to “buy the dip.” Our quantitative systems signaled April’s selloff had gone too far and that low prices would be enough to trigger a market rally. 

Since then, these five firms have performed splendidly, largely outperforming the S&P 500’s 8% rise. 

• Salesforce Inc. (CRM) +16% 
• Akamai Technologies Inc. (AKAM) +13% 
• Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) +16% 
• Moderna Inc. (MRNA) +6% 
• Celanese Corp. (CE) +13% 

InvestorPlace Senior Analyst Luke Lango believes this is just the start.  

He predicts a major event on May 7 will trigger a flood of cash – as much as $7 trillion – to rush back into U.S. stocks. It’s a catalyst that could change the entire market dynamic and create a new summer “panic” of the sort not seen since 1997. 

This is why he held a special 2025 Summer Panic Summit on Thursday. At this event, Luke explained why he believes this catalyst on May 7 will be a game-changer. Plus, he revealed a new set of stocks that he believes are primed to lead the next wave of growth. (You can watch a replay of the event here.)  

Now, I can’t tell you what this catalyst is. You’ll have to see it for yourself in Luke’s special presentation. But if this panic buying he describes does take off, several of my top long-term picks are certain to benefit.  

Let’s revisit two of them today – and a new one as well… 

The Leveraged Play 

The first is Sabre Corp. (SABR), one of the three firms that run the world’s Global Distribution System (GDS) for hotels and flights. Virtually all travel agents and online booking systems use GDS to book flights since it’s the only platform with real-time data on available seats, rooms, and prices. That means industry profits are generally stable and very high. (Even Alphabet Inc. [GOOGL] failed to create a rival system and now uses Sabre to power Google Flights.) 

That’s why private equity decided to take Sabre off the public markets in 2007. They saw a cash cow that could be loaded with debt to make large profits even bigger. And it worked, at least in the short run.  

Sabre returned to public markets in 2014 with 50% higher net income, and the stock surged another 70% the following year as profits continued to climb. 

Then, two things happened. 

• Covid-19. The once-in-a-century pandemic brought air travel to a near standstill, slashing Sabre’s revenues and making debts impossible to service. 
• Rising rates. The following year, the U.S. Federal Reserve began hiking interest rates to stave off inflation, making it harder for Sabre to pay off existing debts and roll them into new deals. 

That crushed Sabre’s share price, which has fallen 90% since early 2020. Its debts are now worth almost six times more than its equity… a situation usually associated with near-bankrupt companies. 

But if Luke’s calculations are right, things could soon turn around for this equity “stub.” 

In fact, since the company is so financially leveraged, a 10% increase in enterprise value will translate into a 58% increase in share price. 

That makes Sabre an incredible “option-like” play. In the worst case, the stock goes to zero… but in the best case, SABR shares could rise 2X… 5X… or even 10X.  

The Real Estate Kings 

The May 7 catalyst will also be felt among real estate companies that rely on more traditional debt financing. 

My two favorites are on opposite ends of the risk spectrum. I would recommend both as complements. 

• Realty Income Corp. (O). This real estate investment trust (REIT) is arguably the most conservative of its kind. Leases are made on a “triple net” basis, meaning tenants are responsible for almost all costs, and the company attracts blue-chip tenants by offering minimal rent increases. Its dividend is paid monthly and sits at a stunningly high 5.6%. 
• Digital Realty Trust Inc. (DLR). Meanwhile, DLR is one of the most aggressive REITs thanks to its single-minded pursuit of growth in AI data centers. Gross income more than doubled to $2.9 billion in 2024, and analysts expect another 50% surge to $4.5 billion by 2027. Cloud computing firms like Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) are still starved for computing power, and Digital Realty has grown as quickly as possible to service that need. Dividends are lower at 3% to reflect this potential. 

These two firms are well run. Realty Income has played the long game by focusing on grocery stores (10% of its portfolio), convenience stores (9%), non-retail stores  (i.e., industrial and services) (21%), and other businesses resistant to e-commerce competition.  

On its part, Digital Realty realized early on that cloud computing customers would need dense colocation data centers (where powered, connected warehouse space is rented out to firms that bring their own servers) and quickly moved to offer that service. 

That means both firms should see a surge in buying interest on a May 7 catalyst. Despite their differences, these REITs are economically sensitive firms. And if Luke is right, a summer panic could send these types of companies soaring.  

The Healthcare Acquirer 

Finally, I’m adding a new pick to my top list: 

Biogen Inc. (BIIB). 

This high-quality biotech firm was created in 2003 in a mega-merger of Biogen and automation company Idec. Shares rose as much as 1,200% through the biotech boom of the mid-2010s as blockbusters like cancer drug Rituxan and MS therapy Avonex came onto the market. Biogen also proved reasonably adept at acquiring and partnering with other biotech firms, though a 2019 acquisition of Nightstar did end with two clinical failures. 

Challenges began to mount after 2023 on rising research costs and high interest rates. Suddenly, new therapies became far more expensive to finance. A lackluster launch of Alzheimer’s drug Leqembi also spooked investors. So did recent staffing cuts at the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), which will increase the time and barriers for new drug approvals. 

Biogen’s stock has dropped 60% over the past two years and trades at 8X forward earnings, compared to a long-term average of 13.3X.  

The May 7 catalyst could change part of that equation. 

This summer, we could see investors return to this beat-up stock whose forward price-earnings ratio now looks more like an automaker’s than a top-tier biotech’s. Biogen’s pipeline and several new launches look reasonably strong. Recently approved drugs like Skyclarys, used in neurology, and Zurzuvae, for postpartum depression, should reduce the impact of expiring drugs and Leqembi’s slower-than-expected success.  

It’s also worth noting that large biotechs like Biogen have significant marketing and production scale that make them attractive partners, allowing them to snap up promising smaller firms at a discount. 

Of course, many of Biogen’s challenges will remain. Biotech is an industry that generates enormous paydays and equally significant flops. I’m also not expecting a quick return to “normal” at the FDA. 

Still, if you had told me two years ago that Biogen would be on sale at 8X forward earnings, I wouldn’t have believed you. And now, it’s something worth taking advantage of. 

The Summer Panic of 1997 

In May 1997, the Asian Financial Crisis was getting started. Currency speculators were dumping the Thai baht, forcing that country’s central bank to defend their currency exchange rate with a dwindling supply of foreign reserves. By July, these reserves had run out, triggering a devaluation and market mayhem. It only took several months for the crisis to spread to South Korea, Hong Kong, and beyond. Asian stock markets collapsed. 

Yet, none of this affected the dot-com boom. Over the same period, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 20% to a new record as American investors began recognizing the promises of the internet. Retail investors were more panicked about missing out than with some faraway financial crisis. 

Luke Lango believes we’re approaching a new version of this two-sided “panic.” 

Today, bearish institutional investors are dumping tariff-impacted companies as global macro fears kick in. Shares of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) have dropped 38%, while those of shoe retailer Deckers Outdoor Corp. (DECK) have sunk 45%. 

Meanwhile, retail investors are aggressively buying the dip every chance they get. On April 3, individual investors bought $4.7 billion of equities following President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” selloff. And on Wednesday, a negative U.S. GDP report was quickly buried as these same mom-and-pop investors snapped up shares. 

That’s because there’s a lot of money sitting on the sidelines. And there are a lot of bullish investors waiting to buy up stock. 

This could come to a head on May 7, when Luke predicts an event will trigger a new cascade of retail buying. 

Understandably, everyone is focused on short-term moves in the midst of a fast-paced market. But there’s something bigger happening behind the scenes…  

For the full breakdown of this catalyst – and Luke’s blueprint for the summer – click here to check out his 2025 Summer Panic Summit.

Until next week, 

Tom Yeung 

Market Analyst, InvestorPlace.com 

Consumers may have doubts about the economy’s future, but that hasn’t stopped them from spending so far—a habit that could prevent a recession.

Consumer sentiment fell for the fourth consecutive month in April. The declines reflect uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s tariff policies and whether they will drive up prices across the economy. Some forecasters are worried that the sour mood could translate to a sustained slowdown in spending and send the economy into a recession.

“How consumers act in these next couple of months will be telling,” wrote Wells Fargo economists Tim Quinlan and Shannon Grein.  “Consumer optimism has slid amid tariff-related pricing concerns, but one of the lessons of the pandemic was that what consumers say is seldom the best barometer for actual spending.”

What Does History Tell Us About Consumer Spending Amid a Dour Outlook?

Consumer sentiment was at a historically low reading of 50 in June 2022, when inflation was at more than 9% and gas prices approached $5 amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

However, despite the poor sentiment over elevated inflation, retail sales grew that month, including higher restaurant spending. This was part of a longer trend of strong consumer spending that helped keep the economy from slipping into recession during that period. 

A good job market kept consumers spending during that period of bad vibes, which economists said could help keep the economy moving during the current period of low sentiment.

“We actually saw spending be very solid, if not strong, over that period,” said Nationwide’s senior economist Ben Ayers. “The sentiment readings were not looking so great, but the job numbers were very strong, and that gave people the income and the confidence that they could go out and spend money and that they would still have income coming in.”

To that end, economists saw good news in the April jobs report released on Friday, which showed better-than-expected job growth. However, there could be weakness ahead, as the weekly jobless claims reached their highest levels since February, said Bret Kenwell, a U.S. investment analyst at eToro.

“Although consumers have been shifting how they spend their money, they’re still spending, and that can keep powering the U.S. economy forward,” Kenwell said. “However, that engine could stall if the labor market deteriorates.”

Spending Remains Solid But Weaknesses Are Emerging

Spending remains strong, at least for the time being.

Retail sales, often used as an indicator of spending, came in better than economists projected in March, as Trump ramped up his tariff talk. Some attributed the jump to shoppers rushing to buy items before tariff costs hit, especially on cars, but other economists said consumer trends weren’t so clear.

“What’s difficult with looking at that data is trying to decide how much of that was just people buying things in advance of tariff price increases,” Ayers said.

Economists pointed out that restaurants and bars saw a 1.8% increase in sales in March, a spending category that isn’t closely associated with imports.

“We’re not aware of a way you can front-run tariffs with a nice night out,” the Wells Fargo economists wrote, noting that March’s restaurant spending data was “a key signal that while spending may be slowing, consumers have not gone into hiding when it comes to discretionary spending.”

However, there could be a slowdown in discretionary spending on the horizon. For example, several major airlines have pulled their guidance for upcoming earnings amid weakening demand for domestic flights. Comerica Bank Chief Economist Bill Adams said that is bad news in a consumer spending category that is often a bellwether.

“This is a sign that flight bookings show consumers are not only talking down the economy like they did in 2022 and 2023, they’re acting on their bad vibes, too,” Adams said.

During these busy times, it pays to stay on top of the latest profit opportunities. And today’s blog post should be a great place to start. After taking a close look at the latest data on institutional buying pressure and each company’s fundamental health, I decided to revise my Stock Grader recommendations for 125 big blue chips. Chances are that you have at least one of these stocks in your portfolio, so you may want to give this list a skim and act accordingly.

Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/market360/2025/05/20250525-blue-chip-upgrades-downgrades/.

©2025 InvestorPlace Media, LLC

If you have a keen eye for detail, love working with numbers, are good at organization, and want to be self-employed, establishing a bookkeeping business could be a good way to capitalize on your interests and skills.

Bookkeeping involves recording the daily transactions of a company, which is vital to the financial health of a business. Bookkeepers are responsible for generating financial reports, reconciling accounts, managing payroll, and more.

How Do You Become a Bookkeeper?

You don’t need a specific degree or certification to become a bookkeeper or start your own bookkeeping business. However, because bookkeepers play a vital role in managing a business’s finances, completing an online course or earning a certification can be a valuable way to build the necessary skills and knowledge.

The American Institute of Professional Bookkeepers and the National Association of Certified Public Bookkeepers offer educational information, courses, and certifications.

And as bookkeeping has moved away from relying on physical journals to manually track transactions, knowing how to use bookkeeping software programs, like QuickBooks or Xero, can be helpful too.

Establishing a Business

Starting a bookkeeping business is like starting any other small business. You’ll need to determine what your business structure is, apply for an employer identification number (EIN) with the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), pick a name, get business insurance, register your business, and open a business bank account.

You might also consider drafting a business plan where you detail information like what services you plan to provide, pricing, your marketing plan, your target customers, and more. You don’t need to draft a business plan to establish a business, but it can be a useful way to understand the purpose of your business as well as your future goals. Plus, it can be used when you apply for loans or request financing for your business.

All of these steps may seem overwhelming at first, but you don’t need to do everything at once. Take your time with each step and don’t hesitate to seek help, especially for decisions like choosing your business structure, which can have significant legal and tax implications down the line.

You’ll also want to start thinking about the logistics and finances of your business. These are important questions to ask yourself:

• Do you plan to launch a website so potential customers can find you online?
• Will you need a customer relationship management (CRM) software to help you keep track of your customers?
• Have you opened a business bank account to keep your personal funds separate from your business funds?
• How much will you charge for your services?

Marketing Your Business

You can offer bookkeeping services in person or online, but regardless of how you plan to offer your services, you’ll need to market your business in order to attract clients.

You can promote your business on social media platforms—like X, Instagram, Facebook, and LinkedIn—for free. You can also pay for ads on these platforms. Another option is to advertise your services on freelance platforms like Fiverr and Upwork.

Beyond social media, think about leveraging your in-person network. Do you have any friends, family members, or acquaintances who run small businesses? Consider reaching out to them and offering your services. Additionally, you may consider joining local groups or organizations for small businesses. These can be a helpful way to connect with other business owners and find potential clients.

The Bottom Line

Starting a bookkeeping business is a great option for those who want the freedom of self-employment without needing a particular degree. Bookkeeping, however, may not be right for everyone, so consider trying an online course to see if it suits your skills and interests.

When you’re ready to establish your own business, take your time when it comes to steps like determining the business structure and purchasing business insurance. And of course, you’ll need clients, too—take advantage of free social media and freelance platforms to boost your business’s visibility.

Sometimes, the stock market whispers. Other times, it shouts. And right now, we’re confident that the market is screaming: It’s time to buy stocks. 

If you’re skeptical, we completely understand. After all, just last month, Wall Street endured one of its fastest and most violent crashes ever.

In early April, stocks plummeted 10% in just two days – something that’s only happened five other times in the past 100 years, all during moments of crisis like the Great Depression, Black Monday, and 2008’s Great Recession. As a matter of fact, up until last week, stocks were tracking for their third-worst year on record after dropping more than 12% in the first 74 trading days…

But then came the biggest comeback rally in the past 100 years.

Signs that the global trade war is rapidly deescalating blew strong winds into Wall Street’s sails – and sparked a historic rally. The S&P 500 has now posted gains in nine consecutive sessions, rising more than 10% over that stretch. This marks the index’s biggest nine-day winning streak since the 1920s. 

One of the stock market’s most violent crashes of all time has turned into one of its biggest comeback rallies of all time. 

And while many investors are still reeling from the recent crash, we’re seeing signs of opportunity – especially in a very specific corner of the stock market: artificial intelligence. As trade tensions cool and the Fed pivots, we believe a select group of AI stocks could lead the next leg of this rally.

And we think this comeback could last. In fact, we have reason to believe it’ll heat up over the next few months – and evolve into a massive summer buying panic… 

May: Trade Deals Clear the Way for a Stock Market Breakout

Let’s start with May, the month we expect the “trade dam” to break.

It seems that the pressure that’s been building since “Liberation Day” is finally forcing a breakthrough on the trade front. 

Over the past week, multiple White House officials have suggested that several trade deals are nearly complete – especially with key allies like India, Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam. 

We think those deals will be announced in May. 

And they’ll likely do more than just ease tariffs. They’ll slam the brakes on inflation fears, cool the geopolitical heat, and finally give the Federal Reserve the economic clarity it’s been waiting for.

1. Less Uncertainty, Clearer Policy Moves. Trade tensions muddy the waters for consumers, businesses, and investors alike. Finalized trade deals remove a major wildcard, making it easier for the Fed to assess the broader economy and chart a clearer path for interest rates.
2. Sharper Read on Inflation. Tariffs and trade disruptions affect prices, both directly (via imported goods) and indirectly (via supply chains). With trade terms nailed down, the Fed can better separate temporary price spikes from lasting inflation pressures.
3. Unlocking Business Investment. When trade policy is up in the air, businesses tend to hold off on spending. Trade clarity helps unlock that investment, giving the Fed stronger signals about economic momentum and making it easier to project GDP growth and adjust monetary policy accordingly.
4. A Clearer Global Picture. Trade deals don’t just impact the U.S. – they ripple across global markets. With more stability abroad, the Fed can better judge how international trends might affect U.S. growth.

This transparency should trigger the next domino: a strong signal from the Fed that a rate cut is coming in June. Pair that with declining bond yields, and you’ve got the perfect environment for risk assets to run higher. 

Wendy’s (WEN) stock got an upgrade from JPMorgan analysts on Monday, but the upgrade also came with a lowered price target as analysts are staying cautious on an uncertain fast-food industry.

Last week, Wendy’s and burger-making rival McDonald’s (MCD) reported weaker first-quarter sales than analysts had expected. McDonald’s said it has seen economic pressures spread from low- to middle-income consumers, and Wendy’s said it could see sales decline rather than grow in 2025.

JPMorgan analysts upgraded Wendy’s stock to “overweight” from “neutral” on Monday, but said they now expect the stock to reach $15 by the end of 2026, rather than $17 previously.

The analysts are slightly more bullish than average on Wendy’s stock, which has a consensus price target of about $14, according to Visible Alpha data. The target, above Wendy’s Friday close of $12.55, comes as analysts are divided on how to rate the stock with two “buy,” four “hold,” and three “sell” ratings.

Wendy’s current price “provides a value-oriented opportunity as we see significant upside,” JPMorgan analysts said, adding the fast-food giant has room to improve its free cash flow with a “higher focus on franchise accountability,” and grow its international footprint. However, the analysts noted a 2% decline in fast-food traffic compared to the last several quarters and pre-pandemic levels as a reason to be cautious.

Wendy’s shares were up 3% in early trading Monday. Still, they’ve lost about a fifth of their value since the start of the year.

President Donald Trump Sunday said he has authorized a 100% tariff on movies made overseas, blindsiding the movie industry and media giants as he took his tariffs war beyond levies on the import of physical goods into the country.

The announcement, made by the president on his Truth Social platform, was hitting shares of media giants like Walt Disney Co. (DIS) and Netflix (NFLX) Monday morning. Shares of Disney, which reports quarterly results Wednesday, were trading down 2%, while those of Netflix were 5% lower in premarket trading.

The president called tax incentives that lure production of American movies overseas a “national security threat” in a Truth Social post on Sunday and said the tariffs on all movies produced in “foreign lands” would take effect immediately. Many American movies and TV shows are made in Canada and the U.K., both of which offer tax incentives, among other places.

“The Movie Industry in America is DYING a very fast death,” Trump said. “Other Countries are offering all sorts of incentives to draw our filmmakers and studios away from the United States. Hollywood, and many other areas within the U.S.A., are being devastated.”

“WE WANT MOVIES MADE IN AMERICA, AGAIN!” he concluded in his post, which did not name specific companies.

Netflix and Disney didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment. Industry executives were reportedly surprised by the announcement, not least because it was unclear what exactly the tariffs would entail.

The movie industry “generated a positive balance of trade in every major market in the world,” according to the Motion Picture Association latest economic impact report.

Written by the Market Insights Team

Latest US job report cements no rate cuts this week

Kevin Ford – FX & Macro Strategist

The labor market tends to be a lagging indicator during periods of economic softening. After the latest nonfarm payroll (NFP) report, the pressing question is whether this will be the last strong jobs report before tariff impacts begin to take hold. Here are the key takeaways from the latest data:

• A 58K downward revision to the previous two months stands out, continuing the trend of negative adjustments. April may follow suit.
• Part-time jobs have made up a sizable portion of overall payroll gains over the past three months, raising concerns about labor market stability.
• Health care added 51K jobs, while manufacturing lost 1K, slightly better than expected but coming off two consecutive months of gains.
• Federal government jobs fell by 9K in April, bringing the total decline since January to 26K.
• Hourly wage growth slipped to 0.2 percent on a three-month average—the lowest since the pandemic and below 2019 levels—suggesting weakening labor demand.

One thing seems certain after this: the Fed won’t be cutting interest rates at this week’s meeting.

What’s up with the markets?

Kevin Ford – FX & Macro Strategist

Why is the VIX at 23, practically at the same level before Liberation Day? Why are investors still willing to pay the same price for stocks as they did 30 days ago, despite current level of tariffs and the worries about slowdown in the economy? Is this recovery irrational?

On one hand, markets are welcoming the first glimpses of de-escalation in the trade war between US and China, and this time, it’s confirmed that China might soften its stance, although with conditions.

But there’s another angle to this surprising rebound in sentiment. A month ago, the worst-case scenario was a big question mark, an unknown variable looming on the horizon. Today, that uncertainty has shifted, and markets now have a clear view of the potential downside. The U.S. administration has already begun to retreat from its initial stance. The question is no longer about how severe the tariffs will be, but rather how much of it will be reversed and mitigated.

Markets inherently dislike uncertainty, and the level of ambiguity has diminished compared to March. What was once an unpredictable risk has now become a known challenge, one that investors can assess more rationally. While the situation remains fluid, the prevailing sentiment suggests that conditions may not be as dire as initially feared, leading investors to maintain valuations despite the remaining headwinds. US stocks have embraced the re-certainty from the U.S. administration and major equity indexes have erased all loses following ‘Liberation day’.

The U.S. dollar, meanwhile, hasn’t experienced the same enthusiasm. While it has seen a slight recovery, it has lagged behind the broader rebound and shift in market sentiment. As May begins, the key question is whether the DXY will climb back above 100 and maintain its historical trend of May appreciation or if concerns over de-dollarization and more secular trends will continue to weigh on its performance.

So, what’s the biggest risk ahead? The lagging impact of tariffs on the economy. Markets may be underestimating just how much pressure is coming, with average U.S. tariffs set to jump roughly tenfold compared to 2024. While hard data has held up better than surveys so far, recession risks are growing.

Will the current buy-the-dip momentum carry markets through the summer once tariff effects start hitting growth and inflation? That’s the real test and negative headlines might come sooner than expected. According to the executive director of the Port of L.A., retailers could run out of full inventories in just seven weeks due to U.S.-China trade tensions.

While markets are hopeful that major tariffs will be negotiated down, the U.S. administration seems unlikely to abandon the baseline 10% tariff anytime soon.

De-escalation hopes help Loonie

Kevin Ford – FX & Macro Strategist

Our initial assessment that USD/CAD would drift toward 1.39 as the U.S. dollar rebounded on risk-on sentiment turned out to be off the mark. Instead, tariff-related headlines have helped the Loonie hold the 1.38 level and even test a potential breakout lower.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to meet U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington on Tuesday to discuss trade relations and broader bilateral ties. However, for USD/CAD to sustain its downward trajectory and break below key levels, it will likely take more than preliminary discussions,

The Loonie has also found support following China’s indication that it is assessing the possibility of initiating trade talks with the U.S.

Reviewing monthly prices, for the Loonie to sustain momentum below the 20-month SMA at 1.382, will require solid and concrete work in the tariff front with a clearer timeline for renegotiating the CUSMA/USMCA trade deal.

As a final note, one of the most notable developments in FX markets this past week has been the sharp appreciation of the Taiwanese dollar. Single-session rallies of this magnitude against the U.S. dollar have not been seen since the late 1980s and this is the biggest daily drop against the CAD ever. Unlike previous spikes, this movement does not come after central bank intervention or external pressures. The surge appears to be driven by genuine investor demand for Taiwanese assets amid improving economic conditions, as well as optimism that trade tensions may be easing.

U.S. yields higher, Oil finding support at $55

Table: 7-day currency trends and trading ranges

Key global risk events

Calendar: May 5 – 9

All times are in ET

Have a question? [email protected]

*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quothave a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.

Shares of Block (XYZ) plunged nearly 25% Friday, a day after the payments technology provider posted worse-than-expected results and guidance as it warned about economic conditions ahead.

The operator of Square and Cash App reported first quarter adjusted earnings per share of $0.56, well short of the $0.92 analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha were looking for. Revenue declined 3% year-over-year to $5.77 billion, also missing forecasts. 

Gross profit rose 9% to $2.29 billion, and payment volume increased 4.4% to $56.80 billion. However, they were below expectations as well.

The results were dragged by falling bitcoin revenue, which slid 16% to $2.30 billion, and CEO Jack Dorsey explained that Cash App didn’t perform as anticipated as the company “saw changes to consumer spending as the quarter progressed that we believe drove the majority of our forecast miss.”

Block Sees Q2, FY Gross Profit Below Expectations

COO and CFO Amrita Ahuja added that “we’re operating in a more dynamic macro environment, so we’ve reflected a more cautious stance on the macro backdrop into our guidance.”

Block sees current-quarter gross profit of $2.45 billion and full-year gross profit of $9.96 billion. The Visible Alpha estimates were for $2.54 billion and $10.18 billion, respectively.

Block shares sank to their lowest level in almost a year and a half.