Archives April 2025

Aldeyra Therapeutics Stock Craters to All-Time Low on FDA Letter



Key Takeaways

  • Shares of Aldeyra Therapeutics slumped nearly 75% to a record low on Thursday.
  • The FDA told the drugmaker in a letter that its drug submitted to treat dry eye disease has not proven its effectiveness in enough trials.
  • The company said it expects to release data from an ongoing trial in the second quarter, and resubmit the drug for approval later this year.

Shares of Aldeyra Therapeutics (ALDX) plummeted nearly 75% to an all-time low Thursday morning after the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said the company’s dry eye disease drug has not proven to be effective in enough studies.

The developmental drug company said that it received a letter from the FDA responding to its new drug application (NDA) for reproxalap, a treatment for dry eye disease.

The drug has “failed to demonstrate efficacy in adequate and well controlled studies in treating ocular symptoms associated with dry eyes,” the FDA wrote, Aldeyra said. The agency told the firm that it needs to prove the drug’s effectiveness in at least one more clinical trial.

The drugmaker said it expects to announce results from an ongoing trial in the second quarter, with plans to resubmit its NDA by mid-2025 if the trial has positive results. “The review period for the potential NDA resubmission is expected to be six months,” Aldeyra said.

Shares of Aldeyra were down 74% in recent trading to $1.39 after earlier touching a record-low $1.18. The stock had been up nearly 30% over the past 12 months entering Thursday.



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The Payments Pulse: Innovation, regulations, market opportunities – United States


Convera is excited to announce The Payments Pulse, a new multi-part report analyzing the changing state of commerce in its quest for standardization and efficiency. As always, cross-border payments play a critical role, and the future will unfold with these systems positioned front and center.

As the global economy digitizes and transforms at a breakneck pace, Convera takes the pulse of the global payments industry, breaking down the latest macro trends and tactics that will move the world forward through innovations, disruptions and an evolving regulatory environment.

Download part 1 of The Payments Pulse now

Cross-border payments market projected to exceed $290 trillion by 2030

The cross-border payments ecosystem is undergoing rapid transformation, with the global market expected to surpass $290 trillion by 2030. This growth is driven by a combination of globalization, digital commerce, fintech innovation and evolving regulatory frameworks. As businesses and financial institutions continue to adapt to this dynamic environment, understanding the key trends and challenges shaping the future of international payments is crucial for staying competitive and compliant.

Trends driving growth in cross-border payments

The cross-border payments landscape has become increasingly essential to global finance, encompassing a wide range of transactions, from family remittances to large-scale business payments. In this expanding market, cross-border payments are poised to play an even larger role in global trade, financial inclusion and the expansion of e-commerce.

Several macro trends are driving this growth, including:

Globalization and trade

International trade heavily influences cross-border payments. As global trade continues to grow, the need for efficient, secure and scalable payment solutions becomes more critical. Projections suggest that by 2030, business-to-business (B2B) transactions will constitute the largest share of the cross-border payments market, expanding from $39 trillion in 2023 to $56 trillion.

Additionally, the ISO 20022 standard is set to modernize the cross-border payment experience, enhancing transparency and reducing transaction costs.

Open banking and B2B e-commerce

The expansion of open banking is enabling businesses to access better financial services, with regulations that support seamless integration across payment platforms.

The rise of B2B e-commerce, along with the automation of accounts payable and receivable (AP/AR) processes, is further boosting the demand for advanced cross-border payment solutions.

Understanding the market breakdown

Cross-border payments can be broadly divided into wholesale and retail segments. Wholesale payments primarily involve large transactions between financial institutions, such as SWIFT transfers, international wire payments and foreign exchange (FX) transactions. Retail payments, on the other hand, include smaller transactions like remittances, online purchases, and e-wallet or card-based payments.

In 2023, the global cross-border payments market was valued at approximately $190.1 trillion. By 2030, it is projected to rise to $290.2 trillion, with wholesale payments accounting for most of this growth.

Notably, B2B payments are expected to experience a sharp increase. Consumer cross-border payments, although smaller, are also poised to double due to the expanding role of digital wallets and e-commerce.

The role of ISO 20022 in cross-border payments

A key development in the evolution of cross-border payments is the migration to the ISO 20022 messaging standard, which is set to become the global language for financial communications. This transition will enable financial institutions to process payments more efficiently, with improved operational capabilities and compliance mechanisms.

ISO 20022 supports a data-rich format that allows for real-time processing and automation, drastically reducing the need for manual interventions. This will lead to faster payment processing, fewer errors and better overall transparency in transactions.

The transition to ISO 20022 is already underway, with major deadlines looming for systems like SWIFT and the Federal Reserve’s FedNow and Fedwire networks. By November 2025, the SWIFT network will complete its shift to ISO 20022, phasing out legacy MT messages. With over 32% of financial institutions already adopting this standard, the industry is moving quickly to adopt this new messaging protocol.

Overcoming challenges in cross-border payments

Despite the vast potential of cross-border payments, several obstacles hinder their efficiency. These include currency fluctuations, high transaction costs, slow processing times, and regulatory barriers such as tariffs, sanctions, anti-money laundering laws and know-your-customer compliance.

Businesses and financial institutions also face increasing pressure to comply with diverse regulatory frameworks, including an array of data privacy laws. The complexities of cross-border payments can be especially burdensome due to the costs and time associated with navigating these varying regulations.

Cooperation is the key to overcoming these cross-border challenges. Collaborations between traditional financial institutions, fintech companies and payment solution platforms such as Convera are helping to future-proof payment solutions and improve customer experience.

The evolving regulatory landscape

The global regulatory landscape is undergoing significant changes as governments address the challenges posed by technological advancements, geopolitical tensions and shifting economic priorities.

In the US, for example, the Trump administration has been particularly focused on reducing regulatory hurdles for fintechs. This could have significant implications for cross-border payments.

One of the most notable regulatory shifts is the push to expand the role of stablecoins in the payments ecosystem. The bipartisan Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act, introduced in early 2025, aims to create clear regulations for stablecoins, making them a viable tool for cross-border payments. This act seeks to ensure consumer protection, transparency and stability within the stablecoin market by setting reserve requirements and imposing dual regulatory oversight.

The European Union has taken a more cautious approach, introducing the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation to oversee digital assets, including stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets. Complying with these standards can be challenging for businesses operating in both the US and the EU.

Additionally, the EU’s Payment Services Directive 3 (PSD3) will expand open banking regulations starting in July 2025, enabling cross-border payment initiation and multi-currency settlements. This move contrasts with the US approach, where open banking laws are still in development.

Looking to the future of cross-border payments

The future of cross-border payments hinges on further innovations and improvements in infrastructure. With the advent of real-time payments, ISO 20022 and increasing digitalization, the payments landscape is moving toward faster, more efficient and transparent solutions.

Download Module 1 of The Payments Pulse now and stay tuned for Module 2 of the report coming in May to discover more tips on navigating the complexities of global commerce and trade.

To succeed in this evolving environment, businesses need to partner with trusted providers who can guide them through the complexities. Convera’s global network and ISO 20022–compliant platform offers businesses the tools to streamline payments, mitigate risks and comply with regulatory requirements.

Want more insights into the topics shaping the future of cross-border payments? Tune in to Converge, with new episodes every Wednesday.

Plus, register for the Daily Market Update to get the latest currency news and FX analysis from our experts.



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India: Starlink Links Up | Global Finance Magazine


Two of India’s biggest telecom providers, Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel, separately inked deals with Elon Musk’s Starlink last month to provide satellite-based internet services there. The pacts open up vast opportunities for Starlink and its parent company, SpaceX, in the multi-billion-dollar Indian satellite communication services market. As of early 2025, approximately 654 million people have yet to gain internet access, according to DataReportal.

Starlink offers high-speed internet and data services via a constellation of 5,600 low-Earth-orbit satellites. Internationally, Starlink provides 2.7 million customers with internet services at speeds ranging from 50 to 200 Mbps.

Tying up with Starlink gives a significant leg up in the Indian telecom market to billionaires Sunil Bharti Mittal, owner of Bharti Airtel, and Mukesh Ambani, proprietor of Reliance Jio. The country’s third biggest telecom player, Vodafone Idea, will have to rework its strategy, although there is talk of it signing with Starlink as well. State-run BSNL is reported to have rejected a deal.

SpaceX and Starlink have been looking to enter the Indian market since 2019. Musk’s role in the Trump administration and his private meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Washington last month reportedly helped pave the way.

Looking ahead, Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel view Starlink as a collaborator to complement their traditional fiber-based data and telecom services in remote and uncovered areas of India. As per their announcements, both companies will sell Starlink equipment and services through their vast networks of stores. Approvals from the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India and the Indian Space Promotion and Authorization Centre for the Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel deals are yet to come. Data security and geopolitical concerns have been flagged by opposition political parties, citing Starlink’s threat to cut services to Ukraine in the midst of its war with Russia. But policy analysts expect a smooth ride with regulators, given the stature of the two top telecom services providers.



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Monthly Dividend Stock In Focus: Whitestone REIT


Updated on April 1st, 2025 by Nathan Parsh

Whitestone REIT (WSR) has two appealing investment characteristics:

#1: It is a REIT so it has a favorable tax structure and pays out the majority of its earnings as dividends.
Related:  List of publicly traded REITs

#2: It pays dividends monthly instead of quarterly.
Related: List of monthly dividend stocks

You can download our full Excel spreadsheet of all monthly dividend stocks (along with metrics that matter like dividend yield and payout ratio) by clicking on the link below:

 

Whitestone REIT’s trifecta of favorable tax status as a REIT, a high yield, and a monthly dividend make it appealing to individual investors.

But there’s more to the company than just these factors. Keep reading this article to learn more about Whitestone REIT.

Business Overview

Whitestone is a retail REIT that owns 55 properties with about 4.9 million square feet of gross leasable area, primarily in fast-growing U.S. markets such as Texas and Arizona. Its tenant base is very diversified,d consisting of more than 1,400 tenants with no single tenant exceeding 2.1% of annualized base rental revenue.

Source: Investor Presentation

Its strategy is to prioritize renting to strong tenants and service-oriented businesses, including grocery, restaurant, health and fitness, financial services, logistics services, education, and entertainment, etc., in neighborhoods with high disposable income. Whitestone was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Whitestone reported its fourth-quarter of 2024 results on March 3rd, 2025, during which it witnessed an occupancy rate of 94.1% versus 94.2% in Q4 2023. Revenue improved 8.8% for the quarter to $40.8 million from the same quarter of 2023. Funds from operations (“FFO”) rose 33% year-over-year to $14.7 million, while FFO per share rose by the same percentage to $0.28. Same-store net operating income (“SSNOI”) grew 5.8% to $25 million.

Also, rental rate growth was 21.9%, up slightly from 21.8% a year ago, supported by a jump in renewal leases rate growth of 19% versus 15.3% a year ago. Rental rate growth in new leases of 36.1% was down from 37.3% a year ago. There were 29 new leases and 50 renewal leases in the quarter.

For 2024, revenue grew 5.0% to $154.3 million, FFO grew 12% to $50.7 million, and FFO per share increased 11.4% to $0.98.

Whitestone expects FFO to be in the range of $1.03 to $1.07 per share in 2025.

Growth Prospects

Whitestone’s growth strategy is centered around:

  1. Investing in locations with solid population growth
  2. Acquiring properties that are mismanaged, overleveraged, or in foreclosure or receivership
  3. Enhancing value property

Since Whitestone began reporting FFO, it has seen minimal growth in its FFOPS. In fact, FFOPS has actually declined. This is not a result of decreased FFO but an outstanding increase in shares. Since 2014, Whitestone has issued more than 25 million shares, effectively doubling its share count, primarily to fund acquisitions.

Due to that share dilution, dividend growth was minimal from 2016 to 2019, and a dividend cut occurred during the pandemic. In February 2021 and 2022, the REIT declared dividend increases. While it did not declare a dividend increase in 2023, it resumed increasing the dividend in March 2024. Whitestone recently raised its dividend 9% to $0.045 in early 2025.

The REIT should be able to improve its dividend in the long run. For now, we use an estimated dividend growth rate of 6% through 2030, which would lead to a sustainable payout ratio of ~51%, which is a very reasonable figure for a REIT. Whitestone’s exposure to the high-growth Sun Belt market and investments in acquisitions, redevelopment, and development projects will drive future growth.

The continuation of SSNOI growth is a good sign, and we would like to see it stay that way. For now, we estimate an FFOPS growth rate of 6% through 2030.

Dividend & Valuation Analysis

Whitestone cut its dividend by 63% in 2020. The company is now steadily increasing its dividend, but it’s a long way off from the pre-pandemic levels.

At the end of Q4 2024, Whitestone had a debt-to-asset ratio of 61% and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.6 times. The REIT had $5.2 million in cash and cash equivalents. Moreover, its payout ratio is much more sustainable than pre-pandemic levels because of a lower dividend.

The distribution looks secure going forward. Based on our projected FFO-per-share of $1.05 for the full year, we expect Whitestone to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 51% for 2025. A dividend payout ratio of close to 50% is highly unusual for REITs and likely implies a high level of dividend safety.

With such a low payout ratio, we believe the distribution will certainly increase from its current low base over the next several years. Whitestone currently has a 3.7% yield. Additional distribution growth would only enhance investors’ yield on cost.

Final Thoughts

With a 3.7% distribution yield, positive EPS growth expectations, and monthly dividends, Whitestone offers investors an expected total annual return of ~7% over the next five years.

This is without any increase in the distribution over the next five years. We believe distribution increases are likely in the medium term because Whitestone’s payout ratio is abnormally low for a REIT.

The monthly dividends are a bonus for investors looking for income.

Don’t miss the resources below for more monthly dividend stock investing research.

And see the resources below for more compelling investment ideas for dividend growth stocks and/or high-yield investment securities.

Thanks for reading this article. Please send any feedback, corrections, or questions to [email protected].





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Global trade war erupts; markets volatile – United States


Written by the Market Insights Team

The sharp global market selloff underscores investor skepticism about any beneficiaries emerging from the latest and largest escalation in the trade war. It also signals growing concerns that the US could be among the hardest-hit by Trump’s protectionist measures. US equities are set to open the day over 3% lower and the US dollar is already 1% lower against a basket of currencies – heading for one of its worst days of the year.

Trump opts for shock therapy

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

The Trump administration has unleashed aggressive tariff measures in both scale and breadth that go far beyond his first-term levies. They hit everyone – friend and foe. As well as the 10% tariff across the board, he’s overlayed that with additional tariffs on a wide group of countries that the US views as already implicitly placing tariffs on US exports. The market reaction has been ugly. Nasdaq 100 futures are down by about 4%, and S&P 500 futures by nearly 3%. In a classic flight to safety, Gold rose to new all-time highs and yields fell on Treasuries of all maturities, weakening the US dollar to 6-month lows.

Trump has implemented 10% blanket tariffs on all imports, starting April 5, extending them further for China (54%), the EU (20%), Japan (24) and UK (10%), with charges largely based on trade surpluses with the US. He also signaled upcoming duties on pharmaceutical drugs, semiconductor chips, lumber, and copper. Combined with prior import taxes on autos and goods from Canada, Mexico, and China, these measures will raise the average US tariff rate to 23%—a dramatic increase from 2.3% in 2024. This is the highest average US tariff rate in more than a century, and surpasses the infamous 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariffs, which arguably worsened the Great Depression.

This is a major shock to the world economy and close to the worst-case scenario Trump had threatened on his campaign trail. It will prompt retaliatory measures from trading partners and although there may be room for negotiation, high tariffs and lingering uncertainty raise recession risks. Tariffs will boost inflation in the short-term, weighing on real disposable income and cutting into spending; financial market conditions will likely tighten and the risk of equity price declines could hit consumer spending via the wealth effect; and trade policy uncertainty will remain elevated, which is suffocating for business investment.

As for the US dollar, well – so far its safe haven status has not cushioned the blow. Investors are focussed more on US stagflation and recession fears. USD/JPY is down 1.4% today, and EUR/USD up almost 1% – dragging the US dollar index to its lowest level since before the election last year.

Chart of US tariff rates

Euro enthused by Europe’s vow to retaliate

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

As well as falling Treasury yields weighing on the US dollar, EUR/USD is being supported by the proactive approach of EU leaders to US tariffs. The EU is preparing a package of crisis measures to guard its economy from Trump tariffs. EUR/USD has jumped beyond $1.09 this morning, matching its highest level in the post-election period.

European currencies, including the euro, are still viewed as vulnerable, because Trump has been so vocal about growing hostility towards the EU. This may result in smaller trade negotiation room for the bloc, which clouds the growth outlook. However, pre-tariff-announcement euro strength materialized following reports of EU Commission plans for economic support measures. Moreover, in the medium term, we also think that Germany’s fiscal policy stimulus should provide a positive offset and help Europe to weather the tariffs storm, while the ECB is likely to take time to construct its policy response and is unlikely to cut rates this month as it works out the implications of the levies on not only growth but also inflation.

This could be why FX options traders are still more optimistic on the euro’s outlook further down the line. So-called risk reversals, a closely watched barometer of positioning, show investors are the most bullish on the euro over the next month since late 2020. The repricing in sentiment is also evident over the longer term. While one-year risk reversals still suggest the euro will be weaker in 12 months, that gauge jumped in March by the second most on record, and has extended higher today – a sign of the speed at which traders are turning more positive on the currency.

Chart of EURUSD

A Brexit dividend at last

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

As we’ve been highlighting for several weeks, the pound continues to act as a safe haven tariff play.  Along with broader markets, sterling was volatile during Trump’s announcement. It did briefly turn lower when it was confirmed UK imports would receive a 10% tariff. But the reality is that 10% is far more lenient than what other nations are facing, and this has helped send GBP/USD soaring to $1.31 this morning – it’s highest level since October last year.

We also mentioned yesterday that GBP/USD has consolidated around the $1.29 handle for the past four weeks, with no reversal signal identified on the charts and as long as the pair held above the 200-day moving average – the path of least resistance should remain to the topside. The technical and fundamental analysis was correct. It is not just sterling strength though, it is US dollar weakness – hence the mixed performance of other GBP crosses whilst the USD is lower across the board. This is understandable because ultimately, US consumers and businesses shoulder the higher import costs – and US recession risks have shot up, dragging US yields lower.

Since Britain had a broadly balanced trade relationship with the US, it did not deserve to be punished with reciprocal tariffs. UK PM Starmer will now continue to negotiate a UK-US trade deal which he hopes will ultimately cut the US tariff on British exports. But there is already relief given the 10% tariff is the lowest rate imposed by the US president – half the EU’s 20% rate – a bonus for leaving the EU. This is why sterling could continue to trade more like a relative haven in this global trade war.

Chart of GBPUSD trading ranges

GBP/USD jumps to 6-month high

Table: 7-day currency trends and trading ranges

Table of FX rates

Key global risk events

Calendar: March 31- April 4

Table of risk events

All times are in BST

Have a question? [email protected]

*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.



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Electric Vehicles: Innovation, Cost Fueling BYD’s Global Momentum


Home Technology Electric Vehicles: Innovation, Cost Fueling BYD’s Global Momentum

Is momentum shifting in the global electric vehicle (EV) market?

Chinese EV maker BYD has surged ahead of Tesla, reporting $107 billion in 2024 revenue compared with Tesla’s $97.7 billion. BYD’s net income in the fourth quarter was a record $2.07 billion, an increase of 73% year-on-year and up 29% quarter-on-quarter.

Tesla’s Chinese rival is gaining global momentum, says Jacob Falkencrone, global head of investment strategy at Saxo Bank, with record-breaking earnings, rapid international expansion, and stock performance that’s outpacing the industry leader.

Innovation is driving BYD’s success, according to Falkencrone, from ultra-fast five-minute charging for 400 km of range to a diversified vehicle lineup that includes hybrids and cleantech solutions beyond cars. The five-minute charge bests the 15 minutes offered by Tesla’s supercharger system.

“This isn’t an incremental improvement,” says Falkencrone. “It’s revolutionary, directly addressing one of consumers’ biggest barriers to EV adoption: lengthy charging times.”

Once reliant on price-cutting, BYD’s pivot toward innovation and technological improvement comes as Tesla’s aging and expensive vehicle models are finding it hard to compete. Founder Elon Musk’s polarizing behavior as a Trump administration adviser hasn’t helped, prompting boycotts against Tesla in Europe and the US.

Looking ahead, Tesla is rumored to be releasing new models this year, including affordable ones, which might rejuvenate sales. But details are scant and the pipeline is small. Nobody is writing off Tesla, however, and the company’s long-time leading role in EV innovation should not be underestimated.

In its favor, BYD has announced it will equip all vehicles with free self-driving technology. The company also makes its own chips and batteries, helping to cut manufacturing costs.

That ambitious agenda won’t be easy to fulfil. Risks include price competition, regulatory hurdles, and the threat of ever higher tariffs from both Europe and the US. Upcoming plants in Hungary and Turkey will help BYD avoid European tariffs and President Trump once voiced his support for Chinese EV makers setting up plants in the US. But for now, geopolitical risks pose a serious challenge as tariffs have kept BYD from entering the passenger car market in the US and regulatory scrutiny around Chinese EV subsidies could complicate its expansion efforts in Europe.



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Monthly Dividend Stock In Focus: Cross Timbers Royalty Trust


Updated on April 2nd, 2025 by Nathan Parsh

Thanks to the diverse offerings available in the stock market, investors can buy stock in companies of all shapes and sizes. Companies with market capitalizations of $10 billion or more are considered large-cap stocks, while small-caps have market capitalizations below $2 billion.

However, even smaller companies are trading in the United States. For example, micro-caps generally have market capitalizations of $300 million or less.

Cross Timbers Royalty Trust (CRT) is a micro-cap, and a tiny one at that—its market capitalization is just $74 million. Although its market capitalization is minuscule, its dividend is quite large. Cross Timbers stock has a high dividend yield of 8.1%.

Plus, Cross Timbers pays a monthly dividend. Sure Dividend has compiled a database of 76 monthly dividend stocks (along with important financial metrics such as dividend yields and payout ratios) which you can access below:

 

Despite its high yield and monthly dividend payouts, Cross Timbers has a highly uncertain outlook. The company has a very risky business model, and its annual dividend payouts declined steadily between 2014 and 2020.

Therefore, only the most risk-tolerant investors should consider buying Cross Timbers.

Business Overview

Cross Timbers Royalty Trust was created on February 12, 1991, and it earns money from two sources. First, income is derived from a 75% net profits interest in seven oil-producing properties in Texas and Oklahoma operated by established oil companies.

In addition, income is generated from a 90% net profits interest in gas-producing properties in Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico. The primary gas-producing field is the San Juan Basin in northwestern New Mexico.

The trust was created to collect net income and then make distribution payments to unitholders based on that income. XTO Energy, a subsidiary of ExxonMobil (XOM), pays the trust’s net income on the last business day of each month.

CRT’s 75% net profits interest is reduced by production and development costs, while the 90% net profits interest is not subject to these costs. Without production and development costs, the 75% net profits interest income is usually only affected by changes in sales volumes or commodity prices.

CRT had royalty income of $12.5 million in 2022 and $12.3 million in 2023. In 2024, oil comprised 72% of total revenues while gas comprised 28% of total revenue.

On March 27th, 2025, CRT reported financial results for the fourth quarter of the fiscal year 2024.

Oil and gas volumes decreased by 15% and 32%, respectively, over the prior year. In addition, the average realized price of gas declined 34%. As a result, distributable cash flow (DCF) per unit decreased by 51%. The price of oil has fallen below the key technical support of $70 lately, as OPEC is about to begin unwinding its production cuts, but the price of gas has rallied lately due to cold weather.

After factoring in $60,253 in interest income and $158,890 in administrative expenses, distributable income for Q4 2024 was $1.32 million, or $0.2195 per unit, compared to $2.42 million, or $0.4028 per unit, in the same period in 2023. Administrative expenses increased by $129,427. Interest income fluctuations are tied to changes in net profits, expense reserves, and interest rates.

Calculation of Net Profits Income

The following is a summary of the calculation of net profits income received by the Trust:

Source: Company Report

Growth Prospects

One of the major catalysts for Cross Timbers moving forward would be higher oil and gas prices. Falling commodity prices weighed on the income derived by the trust in 2014-2020. On the other hand, thanks to the rally of oil and gas prices to 13-year highs in 2023, CRT achieved an 8-year high DCF per unit that same year. Strong commodity pricing can boost distributable income and, therefore, the share price. However, given that OPEC production cuts are about to unwind, the stock has retreated from levels near the all-time high.

CRT has very minimal operating expenses since it is a royalty trust. This means that its operating leverage is huge when revenue rises. Because of this, oil and gas prices are critical for the trust’s distributable income; hence, its growth is almost entirely dependent upon commodity prices.

The trust has generated an average distributable and distributed cash flow of $1.24/unit annually for the past 10 years, though with a noticeable decrease in the past eight years, until 2022. The distribution trend essentially parallels the trend in oil and gas prices.

Moreover, CRT estimates that the rate of natural production decline of its oil and gas properties is 6%- 8% per year. This is a significant headwind for future returns. We also expect the price of oil to deflate in the upcoming years due to the record number of renewable energy projects under development right now, as most countries are doing their best to diversify away from fossil fuels. As a result, we expect a -5% average annual decrease for distributable cash flow over the next five years.

Dividend Analysis

Since Cross Timbers is a trust, its distributions are classified as royalty income. Since the distributions are considered ordinary income, they are taxed at the individual’s marginal tax rate.

Cross Timbers’ distributions are declared 10 calendar days before the record date, the last business day of each month. The company’s distributions declined steadily between 2014 and 2020, reflecting weak commodity prices, but recovered in 2021 and 2022 thanks to a strong recovery in oil and gas prices.

In 2018, Cross Timber paid cumulative dividends of approximately $1.43 per share. However, 2019 saw distributions fall to $0.88 per share, followed by a further decline to $0.78 per share in 2020.

Fortunately, distributions partly recovered in 2021, as oil and gas prices rallied considerably off the pandemic lows. As a result, CRT offered total distributions of $1.92 per unit in 2023 for an average annual distribution yield of 10.9% in that year.

Moreover, the trust offered an 8-year high distribution per unit of $1.96 in 2022, thanks to the multi-year high oil and gas prices that prevailed throughout last year.

Cross Timbers is undoubtedly a high dividend stock. But its variable payout can swing wildly, depending almost entirely on the direction of oil and gas prices. Based on its distributions in the last 12 months, the stock currently offers an 8.1% distribution yield.

However, we note that the trust is entirely dependent upon commodity prices it has no control over. The trust continues to distribute essentially all of its income, as it has since its inception. Dividend coverage is never going to be strong given that Cross Timbers is required to distribute basically all of its income.

Future distribution growth is reliant upon higher distributable income. As a result, the trust’s distribution growth potential is essentially a bet on oil and gas prices. If commodity prices remain elevated, the trust will keep offering excessive distributions. However, we note the high cyclicality of oil and gas prices and their excessive downside risk off their current levels in the long run, especially given the secular shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources.

The bottom line for Cross Timbers’ distribution is that it is very unpredictable. While the headline yield is enticing, keep in mind that there is significant variability in any particular month’s payout, depending on commodity prices and production levels. Investors should consider the risk and volatility associated with oil and gas royalty trusts before buying Cross Timbers.

Final Thoughts

Cross Timbers gives investors a unique way to play potentially higher oil and gas prices in the future while realizing monthly income along the way. However, investors should take into account risks and unique characteristics before buying shares of a royalty trust.

Cross Timbers is a micro-cap, meaning it is more volatile and thinly-traded than larger companies. It is also a royalty trust, which carries its own risks.

Finally, Cross Timbers is not a long-term ‘sleep well at night’ dividend growth stock. Future results are dependent upon oil and gas prices and the true amount of reserves in the properties in which it is interested.

As a result, Cross Timbers is only a recommended stock for investors who accept the risks of royalty trusts and micro-caps.

Don’t miss the resources below for more monthly dividend stock investing research.

And see the resources below for more compelling investment ideas for dividend growth stocks and/or high-yield investment securities.

Thanks for reading this article. Please send any feedback, corrections, or questions to [email protected].





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Laser-Focus on These Tariff-Proof Stocks Before It’s Too Late


Hello, Reader.

In 1939, the British government wanted to boost public morale before the outbreak of World War II. So, they created a series of posters that featured simple motivational sayings.

The posters were never officially released, but one in the series gained widespread popularity after it was rediscovered in an English bookshop nearly 60 years later.

And there’s a good chance you’ve seen it…

This bright red poster quickly became a global phenomenon. There is even an official “Keep Calm and Carry On” web store, which sells T-shirts, mugs, and phone cases featuring the now iconic phrase.

The message is, indeed, simple, yet effective: We must stay composed in the face of adversity, continuing on as best we can.

And it’s a sentiment I’d like to share today, especially ahead of President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcements.

Trump is expected to announce a sweeping tariff plan after markets close today. So far, the plan has remained largely a mystery. Even this morning, the administration seemed unsure about the direction it is going to take.

Of course, it can be hard to “Keep Calm and Carry On” against so many unknowns.

But here’s what I do know: The best thing to do to “tariff-proof” your portfolio is to stay away from companies close to the trade war’s ground zero.

Here’s where to look instead…

Keeping Calm…

I recommend sticking with lowly valued, and seemingly “unpopular,” stocks.

Pharmaceuticals would be one such example.

Take Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY), one of the largest biopharmaceutical companies in the world… and one of healthcare industry’s greatest comeback stories.

As we wrote just yesterday in a weekly update for my paid Fry’s Investment Report service…

Shares of the firm had previously sold off on fears of a three-step patent cliff from cancer drugs Revlimid and Opdivo and heart drug Eliquis. A technical write-off of its 2024 Karuna acquisition only added to the selloff. 

But these cheap prices created an incredible buying opportunity that continues through today. BMY still trades in single-digit price-to-earnings ratios, despite now having one of the best oncology pipelines in the business. It also has growing potential in disorders like schizophrenia and Alzheimer’s disease thanks to its acquisition of Cobenfy last year. In fact, BMY has actually risen this week.

Indeed, many of the pharmaceutical names in my Fry’s Investment Report portfolio are up this week, despite the uncertainty.

Weeks before the threat of Trump’s tariffs arrived, I predicted that the lowly valued pharmaceutical sector would outperform the richly valued S&P 500 index. As I explained at the start of the year…

The pharmaceutical industry is becoming a hotbed of AI-enabled innovation and discovery. Therefore, as AI extends its tentacles into every facet of the drug discovery process, the industry’s profitability could grow considerably. Yet, The NYSE Arca Pharmaceutical Index is trading for just 14 estimated 2025 earnings, or 40% less than the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 index. I expect that valuation gap to narrow considerably during 2025, as pharmaceutical stocks outperform most tech stocks.

So far, so good on that forecast.

In an otherwise bleak stock market environment, the pharma sector has been outperforming the Nasdaq-100 Index by a wide margin. The NYSE Arca Pharmaceutical Index has advanced 7% year-to-date, compared to the Nasdaq-100’s 7% loss, another richly valued index.

The same can be said for the European markets…

… And Carrying On

Even though shares of European stocks are down this week, they also have been outperforming our own market in 2025, for the most part.

That’s because they carry relatively low valuations.

It’s also because European companies have no “beef” with other countries. So even if they are shut out from the U.S. market in Trump’s latest tariff plans, they are not shut out from South America, Canada, or Asia.

In fact, to the extent that the rest of the world retaliates against the U.S., European companies could become “swing” providers of many products to other countries.

So, before today’s Liberation Day announcements and after, I will continue to “Keep Calm and Carry On.”

And I’ll help my paid-up members do the same by focusing on lowly valued sectors and stocks.

I recommend that you do that same… and the best way to do is by joining us at Fry’s Investment Report.

Click here to learn how to become a member today.

Regards,

Eric Fry

P.S. You’re almost out of time to access what could be the most important financial research of 2025.

For the past few years, Louis Navellier, Luke Lango, and I have been warning about a massive economic divide we call the “Technochasm” – and our predictions have proven alarmingly accurate. Now, we’re sounding the alarm about an even more dramatic acceleration of this trend, driven by AI’s explosive growth.

We have just issued urgent buy alerts on six stocks that could surge in the coming weeks and months, as AI enters turns the Technochasm into an abyss. You can learn more about how this will all play out in the markets and the names of these six stocks by watching this time sensitive video.

Just please don’t delay… this video comes offline tonight at midnight ET.



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USD jumps as tariffs rock markets; Aussie nears one-month lows – United States


Written by Steven Dooley, Head of Market Insights, and Shier Lee Lim, Lead FX and Macro Strategist

Aussie, Chinese yuan hit on trade announcement

Global markets shuddered this morning after US president Donald Trump announced the long-awaited next stage of his trade program with a blanket tariff of 10% on all imports into the US.

In addition to the 10% minimum on all countries, Trump announced a series of other tariffs that reflect the restriction on US imports into other countries.

China will see an additional 34% tariff while Japan sees an additional 24% tariff. Australian imports will see the minimum 10% tariff imposed.

US sharemarket futures tumbled on the news. The S&P 500 fell 3.4% while the Nasdaq lost 4.3%.

In FX markets, trade sensitive currencies fell, with the AUD/USD down 0.9% as it reached one-month lows. The NZD/USD fell 0.7%.

In Asia, USD/CNH jumped 0.6% to near the year’s highs. USD/SGD hit one-month highs.

GBP/USD eyes rebound amid slower UK wage growth

UK wage growth is slowing, with median pay increases dropping to a three-year low at 3.5% in February, down from 4.0% previously.

This supports the Bank of England’s cautious approach to monetary policy, especially as private sector pay is expected to slow further by year-end.

GBP/USD is near four-month highs, while GBP/SGD is near eight-month highs. GBP/AUD however, is near five-year highs.

GBP/USD has followed a corrective decline from 1.2925, still above its 50-day EMA of 1.2770.

Key support levels lie at 1.2790–1.2860, where a rebound could pave the way for further upside, potentially forming a positive inverted head-and-shoulders pattern.

A sustained move above 1.3049 could open the door to 1.3264, while a break below 1.2790 risks further declines toward support at 1.2456.

Chart showing corrective decline approaching support levels

EUR/USD poised for positive breakout as ECB eyes policy shift

The European Central Bank (ECB) may consider cutting rates in April if inflation data aligns with its 2% target, according to Governing Council Member Rehn.

Both AUD/EUR and NZD/EUR are near eight-month lows.

Looking at EUR/USD, the pair has rebounded from its recent corrective decline, still above its 50-day EMA at 1.0666

A close above 1.0955 would confirm this pattern, potentially opening the way for a significant move toward 1.1697.

However, if EUR/USD fails to hold above 1.0630, it risks further downside toward support near 1.0387.

Chart showing EUR/USD now trading around average since 2023

USD jumps on tariff announcement

Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges  

Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges

Key global risk events

Calendar: 31 March – 4 April

Key global risk events calendar: 31 March – 4 April

All times AEDT

Have a question? [email protected]

*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.



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