If you don’t pay the property taxes that you owe on your home, you could lose it.
When property taxes go unpaid, the amount you owe becomes a lien on your house. If you don’t pay off the amount you owe, the house could be sold in a tax sale. In other instances, the house may be put in foreclosure before being sold.
Key Takeaways
You could lose your home if you fall behind on your property taxes. Your home may be put up for sale in one to three years.
You do have the opportunity to get your house back by redeeming it and paying the taxes and interest owed or the sale price.
To stay current on your property taxes, set aside some money each month for your property taxes. You’ll be ready with the full payment when the bill comes due.
How Soon You’ll Lose Your House
How quickly can a home with unpaid property taxes be sold? It typically takes one to three years.
“Paying property taxes on time is critical since not paying for as little as one year in some municipalities allows that municipality to place your property on the upcoming property auction list,” says Kassi Fetters, owner of Artica Financial Services.
Fetters went on to point out that once your property is auctioned off, that municipality will pay off your property tax debt, late fees, and auction fees for you. Then you get what’s left. “I’ve seen this happen for nonpayment of property taxes after only two years,” said Fetters.
Redeeming a House
If you have enough money, you may be able to get your house back. It is possible for a homeowner to redeem the property after a tax sale by paying the sale amount or back taxes owed plus interest. How long you have to redeem a property varies from state to state.
“This means that your property taxes are added to your mortgage payment, so it’s done automatically,” says Noah Damsky, a Principal at Marina Wealth Advisors. “This is the most convenient method because it’s built into your regular budget and doesn’t require you to make multiple one-off property tax payments each year.”
You can also make direct payments to your local tax collector. Start saving early in the year to have enough for your property tax payments.
“You can make one-off payments each year to your county property assessor online, so it’s convenient; you just have to make sure you make the deadlines. There are often soft deadlines that can be missed without penalty and firm deadlines weeks later that carry stiff late penalties,” Damsky says.
Make a plan for paying your property taxes. Put aside a little each month so you’ll have the full amount saved by the time your property taxes are due.
The Bottom Line
Falling behind on your property tax payments could cause you to lose your home. This could happen in a year to three years, so you could go from being a homeowner to living without a house in a short period of time.
If you still want to keep your home and you have saved enough money, you can redeem it after a tax sale by paying the sale amount of the house or taxes that are owed plus interest. To avoid falling behind on your property taxes, put aside some money each month so you’ll have enough to cover your property taxes when they come due.
We are thrilled to announce that Convera Live, the international roadshow hosted by Convera, a global leader in commercial payments, is setting its sights for North America. This must-attend event for senior financial decision makers will feature industry experts and discussions around trends shaping international payments today including market insights, key factors driving volatility, and ways to navigate global commerce.
Following a successful run of events across Australia, Singapore, and Europe, the Convera Live roadshow series will bring its expertise to over 10 key cities in total across the globe, including Canada and the United States.
The first North American event kicks off on April 24, 2025 at the World Trade Center in New York City. Those interested can register to attend here.
“The volatile global economy creates major challenges for businesses operating internationally. Convera Live brings our experts’ insights directly to companies to help them navigate currency risks, understand market trends, and help protect their profits when expanding globally.” said Steven Dooley, Global Head of Market Insights at Convera. “After tremendous success across other regions, we’re excited to expand our roadshow locations.”
Convera Live offers a unique opportunity for businesses to:
Gain expert insights on the currency market outlook
Discover practical approaches to help mitigate foreign exchange exposure and protect your business from unexpected currency fluctuations.
Create a roadmap for global expansion
Understand how to successfully pursue international growth despite economic headwinds. Learn from Convera executives who have navigated expansion during challenging economic conditions.
Network with industry peers
Connect with other business professionals and share valuable insights into navigating the current economic landscape.
Convera wins best B2B payments company award
The launch of the Convera Live Global Roadshow follows the company’s recent triumph at the ninth FinTech Breakthrough Awards. Convera won the title of Best B2B Payments Company, recognized for its tech-led payment solutions, expansive financial network, and foreign exchange expertise, helping 26,000 customers globally do business across borders.
The Fintech Breakthrough Awards acknowledge industry excellence by evaluating every entrant based on key areas of innovation, performance, ease of use, functionality, value and impact. Every entrant must complicate a detailed application providing product overviews, technical specifications, real-world case studies, and details of the product’s future evolution. Each submission undergoes a rigorous evaluation and peer comparison by an expert judging panel.
Shares of Eli Lilly jumped 12% in premarket trading Thursday after the pharmaceutical company released Phase 3 trial results for its oral weight-loss drug that “demonstrated statistically significant efficacy results and a safety profile consistent with injectable GLP-1 medicines.”
The pill accomplished its goals of reducing the diabetes marker A1C and causing weight loss.
The trial is the first of seven for the drug, and Eli Lilly expects to submit it for FDA approval next year.
Shares of Eli Lilly (LLY) jumped 12% in premarket trading Thursday after the pharmaceutical company released late-stage clinical trial results for its oral weight-loss drug that “demonstrated statistically significant efficacy results and a safety profile consistent with injectable GLP-1 medicines.”
The first of seven Phase 3 trials for orforglipron showed it was more effective than a placebo at causing weight loss and a reduction in A1C, a long-term blood sugar metric used in evaluating diabetes treatments, Lilly said. The reductions in weight and A1C increased for patients taking higher doses of the drug.
The drug had similar gastrointestinal side effects to Eli Lilly’s injectible weight-loss drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound, including nausea, indigestion, and diarrhea. The rate of patients reporting the side effects also varied among different doses, impacting 10% to 26% of patients.
Eli Lilly said it plans to present the data at a conference and in a peer-reviewed journal. Results from other trials for orforglipron will be released later this year, and the company expects to file for Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval as a type 2 diabetes treatment in 2026.
Lilly, rival Novo Nordisk (NVO), and others are in development of new weight-loss treatments that can be taken orally rather than injected. Pfizer (PFE) halted an oral drug trial earlier this week after a patient reported a liver injury.
While Eli Lilly shares soared on the news, those of Novo Nordisk—the maker of blockbuster drugs Ozempic and Wegovy—sank 6% about 30 minutes before the opening bell.
U.S. stock futures are mixed following Wednesday’s market sell-off; Nvidia (NVDA) stock is in focus after sinking yesterday, with CEO Jensen Huang reportedly visiting China for talks; Netflix (NFLX) is set to report quarterly results after the bell; UnitedHealth Group (UNH) shares plummet after the health insurance provider cuts its profit forecast; and U.S.-listed shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) rise after the chipmaker posts strong results and maintains its revenue outlook. Here’s what investors need to know today.
1. US Stock Futures Mixed After Indexes Drop Wednesday
U.S. stock futures are mixed after indexes tumbled in the prior session on trade war jitters and comments by Fed Chief Jerome Powell. Nasdaq futures are up about 0.7% after the tech-heavy index fell 3.1% Wednesday, while S&P 500 futures also are pointing higher. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are 1.5% lower, pulled lower by plunging UnitedHealth Group (UNH) shares. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is moving higher to trade at around $84,700. Yields on the 10-year Treasury note are rising to above 4.3%. Oil futures are more than 1% higher. Gold futures are ticking lower. Stock and bond markets will closed for Good Friday tomorrow, with bond markets closing today at 2 p.m. ET.
2. Nvidia Stock in Focus After Sinking Yesterday
Nvidia (NVDA) stock is recovering slightly in premarket trading after sinking nearly 7% yesterday as the firm said it’s set to take a $5.5 billion charge as a result of U.S. restrictions on AI chip exports to China. Morgan Stanley analysts said they now expect an 8% to 9% hit to Nvidia’s data center revenue over the next couple quarters after the U.S. government told the chipmaker it would require a federal export license in order to sell its H20 chips to China. According to the Financial Times, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang visited China Thursday to meet with tech leaders and government officials, with state broadcaster CCTV quoting him as saying the country “was a very important market for Nvidia.”
3. Netflix Set to Report Q1 Results After the Bell
Netflix (NFLX) shares are up roughly 1.5% in premarket trading ahead of its anticipated first-quarter earnings report after the closing bell. Analysts expect the company to post a 12% year-over-year revenue increase. Netflix’s report comes as analysts at Oppenheimer and Bank of America maintained their bullish ratings on the streaming giant, arguing it was well positioned to navigate any potential economic uncertainty. According to The Wall Street Journal, company executives laid out ambitious targets at a business review meeting last month, including plans to double revenue by 2030.
4. UnitedHealth Stock Plummets on Cuts to Full-Year Profit Outlook
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) stock is plummeting 20% in premarket trading, bringing down Dow futures, after the insurance provider reported disappointing results and cut its 2025 profit forecasts. UnitedHealth reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $7.20 on revenue that rose 10% year-over-year to $109.58 billion, both shy of Visible Alpha estimates. The company also lowered its full-year EPS and adjusted EPS outlooks. UnitedHealth shares entered the day up about 16% since the start of the year.
5. TSMC Stock Rises on Strong Earnings, Unchanged Outlook
U.S.-listed shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) are rising more than 3% in premarket trading after the world’s largest contract chipmaker reported strong first-quarter results and maintained its 2025 revenue outlook despite growing trade disputes. The firm reported EPS of 13.94 New Taiwan dollars ($0.43) on revenue that rose 42% year-over-year to NT$839.25 billion ($25.85 billion), topping estimates. CEO C.C. Wei said on the earnings call that the company continues “to expect our full-year 2025 revenue to increase by close to mid-20s percent in U.S. dollar terms.”
US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s firm stance on prioritizing inflation has dashed expectations for near-term interest-rate cuts. Yesterday, Powell dismissed concerns about disorderly market behaviour, emphasizing that there’s no immediate need for the Fed to intervene. Ironically, this hawkish approach could set the stage for more volatility today, particularly as the long holiday weekend approaches. Traders are expected to scale back their positions to mitigate risks from potential headline-driven shocks.
Indeed, recession odds are climbing even further due to the pushback on the timing of cuts too. This explains why all three major US equity indexes fell on Wednesday – the S&P by 2.24%, the Dow by 1.73% and the Nasdaq by 3.07%. Yields also moved lower, whilst safe haven gold stamped fresh record highs – now up over 25% year-to-date – its best start to a year since 1970.
Already under pressure from tariff and recession risks, US equities are also contending with the “death cross” pattern – a technical signal that some interpret as a harbinger of further downside. This pattern occurs when the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average. While the death cross is often seen as a turning point where a shorter-term correction may evolve into a sustained downtrend, historical data suggests it doesn’t always predict significant declines.
A murky economic outlook
Kevin Ford – FX & Macro Strategist
The Bank of Canada (BoC) decided to hold interest rates steady at 2.75% following seven consecutive rate cuts. Speculation about a potential further cut intensified leading up to the announcement, driven by softer-than-expected inflation data for March. This led to long USD/CAD positioning, briefly pushing the Canadian dollar closer to the 1.40 mark. After the BoC announcement, the pair dropped back below 1.39, dipping as low as 1.385. Following the BoC’s latest decision, the likelihood of another rate cut in the June meeting has climbed to 58%.
The central bank emphasized that it will adopt a cautious approach in the coming months as it evaluates both the broader economic landscape and the toll that ongoing tariffs are taking on the Canadian economy. Importantly, for the third consecutive meeting, the BoC reiterated that monetary policy alone cannot resolve uncertainties stemming from trade disputes. Governor Tiff Macklem reaffirmed the central bank’s commitment to price stability, stressing that despite the uncertain outlook, decisions will be driven by hard economic data in either direction.
Similar to other global central banks—such as the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the U.S. Federal Reserve—the BoC highlighted the challenges in delivering forward guidance amidst elevated uncertainty, particularly in inflation forecasting. However, the central bank outlined two potential economic scenarios tied to the duration of U.S. trade tariffs.
Scenario One: If tariffs are eventually negotiated away but the process remains unpredictable, caution among businesses and households could persist. In this case, GDP growth would stall in Q2 and recover only moderately, leaving inflation below the 2% target.
Scenario Two: A prolonged trade war could shrink Canada’s GDP in the second quarter, pushing the economy into a year-long recession, with inflation temporarily exceeding 3% by mid-2026.
Regardless of the scenario, one sector of the economy is already bearing the brunt of tariff pressures: the auto industry. General Motors has announced plans to lay off hundreds of workers at its Ingersoll, Ontario plant. This follows a two-week shutdown at Stellantis’ Windsor, Ontario facility, where operations are scheduled to resume during the weeks of April 21 and April 28. Meanwhile, the CAMI assembly plant, also in Ingersoll, has confirmed an extended shutdown lasting several months.
The economic outlook for Canada remains bleak. For the Bank of Canada, the question remains whether there will be room to further cut rates in its upcoming meetings as it waits for clearer data on the evolving and blurry economic climate.
Trade tensions overshadow retail sales boost
George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist
The US dollar index remained under pressure yesterday, flirting with the key 100 handle and near its lowest level in three years. President Trump’s escalating trade barriers, including a new probe into tariffs on critical minerals, have intensified concerns about US economic growth. These potential tariffs, alongside existing threats, have heightened fears of a recession, prompting outflows from dollar-denominated assets.
Earlier concessions on autos and electronics briefly slowed the selloff, but the dollar’s decline resumed as trade tensions with China deepened. The surge in US retail sales didn’t support either because it’s the future impact of tariffs that matters most. The overall tone of the report was stronger than expected as households rushed to purchase cars ahead of anticipated tariffs, yet restaurants and drinking places posted their largest jump since January 2023, indicating a consumer still willing to go out and spend. Nevertheless, the data failed to offset the broader pressure on the dollar even amidst softer inflation readings from Canada, the Eurozone, and the UK, reflecting the growing uncertainty surrounding US trade policies and their global impact.
The US economy faces four major shocks. First, higher tariffs on imports will reduce real disposable income, creating a demand shock. Second, surging policy uncertainty, particularly around trade, is unlikely to ease soon and is already curbing business investment. Third, global supply chain disruptions are intensifying as firms stockpile goods. Finally, tighter financial market conditions are emerging. Falling US stock prices, rising long-term interest rates, a depreciating dollar, and widening corporate bond spreads are dampening consumer spending and business investment. These combined shocks pose significant risks to economic stability.
Tariffs clear way for ECB cut
George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist
Money markets are widely anticipating another 25-basis point rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) today. After the March meeting, the ECB seemed set for a pause, but Trump’s trade tariffs have intensified growth risks, solidifying the case for ECB easing. While fiscal spending from Germany and the EU has improved the Eurozone’s growth outlook, it remains a distant prospect, and the focus now shifts to the ECB’s guidance for the months ahead amidst the tariff turmoil.
Markets expect the deposit facility to drop to 1.75% by Q4, with a possibility of further moves into accommodative territory. However, given the uncertain economic backdrop, the ECB is likely to maintain a cautious stance, keeping its options open. While the growth impact of tariffs is relatively clear, inflation effects remain uncertain and will depend on the evolution of the trade conflict.
What does this mean for the euro though? Strikingly, the correlation between short-term rate differentials and EUR/USD has disappeared since “liberation day,” with the currency pair careering over 5% higher despite the 40 basis point tumble in the German-US two-year yield spread. This adds to the evidence that European bonds and the euro are becoming preferred alternatives as confidence in US assets wane. While ECB rate cuts may marginally impact the euro, broader market dynamics tied to growth concerns are likely to play a more significant role. For now, EUR/USD is expected to find support at $1.13, with an upside target of $1.15 still on the table.
Sterling’s diverging paths
George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist
GBP/USD hit a six-month high yesterday, trading around $1.3250, but has since retreated slightly following Fed Powell’s comments. The circa 5.5% rally in cable year-to-date is mostly down to the weaker USD, driven by concerns over President Trump’s trade policies and their potential impact on the US economy. However, softer-than-expected UK inflation and labour market data this week has also weighed on the pound. This has cemented market expectations of a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut in May, with two more cuts fully priced in by year-end as well.
Against the euro, sterling has struggled more. The GBP/EUR pair reflects the pound’s relative weakness, as the euro benefits from higher liquidity and ongoing repatriation of financial assets into the Eurozone. The UK’s inflation data, combined with a deteriorating labour market outlook, has added to the pound’s challenges, though the pair has rebounded about 1% so far this week following last week’s aggressive selloff.
Overall, the pound’s movements this year have been shaped by mixed UK economic data, but largely due to broader global trade uncertainties. GBP/USD has seen gains due to dollar weakness, but GBP/EUR’s slide highlights the pound’s vulnerability amid global and domestic economic concerns.
EUR, NZD and CHF with +5% swing in seven trading days
*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
American Express (AXP) on Thursday reported better-than-expected first-quarter results on solid consumer spending.
The credit card giant reported first-quarter earnings per share (EPS) of $3.64 on revenue that rose 7% year-over-year to $16.97 billion. Analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha had expected $3.47 and $16.94 billion, respectively. Net interest income was $4.17 billion, just above the $4.10 billion consensus.
American Express CEO Stephen Squeri said the firm saw first-quarter consumer spending “consistent with and in many cases better than what we saw in 2024.” The company affirmed its full-year outlook of 8% to 10% revenue growth and EPS of $15.00 to $15.50 “subject to the macroeconomic environment.”
American Express shares were up less than 1% immediately after the report. They entered the day down about 15% so far this year.
Last week, Bank of America analysts upgraded the stock’s rating to “buy,” saying the firm’s “high-quality customer base” would help it be more resilient in an economic turndown or recession.
Shares of UnitedHealth Group (UNH) tumbled 20% in premarket trading Thursday after the healthcare giant’s first-quarter results fell short of analysts’ estimates and it cut its profit forecasts for 2025.
UnitedHealth reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $7.20 on revenue that rose 10% year-over-year to $109.58 billion. Analysts polled by Visible Alpha had expected $7.25 and $111.46 billion, respectively.
The Eden Prairie, Minn.-based company lowered its 2025 EPS outlook to a range of $24.65 to $25.15 and its adjusted EPS projection to $26 to $26.50. Last quarter, UnitedHealth said it expected to generate full-year EPS of $28.15 to $28.65 and adjusted EPS from $29.50 to $30.00.
UnitedHealth attributed the outlook cuts to “heightened care activity indications” in its Medicare Advantage business, and “unanticipated changes in the profile of Optum Health members impacting planned 2025 reimbursement.”
CEO Andrew Witty said the company “did not perform up to our expectations, and we are aggressively addressing those challenges to position us well for the years ahead.”
UnitedHealth shares entered the day up about 16% since the start of the year, recovering from a February slump following a report that the U.S. Department of Justice was investigating the company’s diagnosing practices.
While some retirees envision settling along the coastline, others are looking for an alternative to crowded beaches. If you’d still like to enjoy a warm summer, mild winter, and sunny skies, it might be time to consider other up-and-coming retirement destinations along the country’s Sun Belt.
In Longview, Texas, for example, retirees are finding a surprisingly affordable retirement destination with an active community centered around small-town charm and natural appeal. Located in Gregg County, with a population of just over 83,700, Longview is quiet enough to provide a relaxing retirement backdrop without limiting access to resources like health care, entertainment, and restaurants.
Key Takeaways
Longview, TX, offers a lower living cost than other parts of Texas and the U.S.
Longview’s monthly housing costs are still less than half the national average ($1,017 vs $2,120 nationwide).
The city boasts rich cultural and historical attractions that appeal to retirees, such as The Longview Museum of Fine Arts.
Longview offers abundant outdoor and recreational activities with nearby lakes and parks.
Gregg County, where Longview is located, is home to 10 hospitals and 330 health care establishments.
Cost of Living in Longview, TX
The general cost of living in Longview, TX is lower than the national average, which is a benefit for those in retirement concerned about managing expenses on a fixed income.
The median household income in Gregg County, where Longview is located, is $64,809, about $15,800 less than the national median. Median monthly housing costs for the county are relatively low as well, coming in at just a little over $1,000 a month. While the housing and rental markets vary greatly across different regions, Longview’s monthly housing costs are still less than half the national average ($1,017 vs $2,120 nationwide).
Even within the Lone Star state, Longview is a relatively affordable city compared to other larger, more metropolitan areas (like Houston and Dallas). While the state’s median home price is around $337,800, houses in Longview have a median value of $185,800. This is also less than the national average of $419,200. For budget-conscious retirees looking to make the most of their resources, Longview’s relatively low housing costs and home values can be an attractive option for retirement.
Health Care and Accessibility
When selecting your ideal retirement destination, be proactive and realistic about what type of care, support, and services you could require in the coming years. As adults age, they will likely need ongoing medical treatment and specialized care. Around 85% of adults 65 and older have at least one chronic disease, such as heart disease, that requires ongoing management and treatment.
While Longview is a relatively small city, it offers retirees access to several large hospital networks. Gregg County is home to 10 hospitals and 330 health care establishments.
Tip
Keep in mind that when you move to a new state or city, you may need to obtain new health insurance coverage, even if you’re on Medicare or Medicaid. As you consider providers and coverage options, take a look at what’s largely accepted in Longview.
In terms of transportation, Longview’s options are limited. Owning and driving your own car may be best, considering the area surrounding Longview is relatively rural. You will, however, be able to access ride shares like Uber or Lyft if you don’t want to drive. Taxis are also available, but you’ll need to make arrangements ahead of time and expect longer wait times. Unlike major cities like New York or Los Angeles, they aren’t easily accessible from every street corner.
The Longview Transit bus system runs several routes daily, except Sundays and holidays. If you live outside the main city limits, however, you may have difficulties finding a stop near your home or destination, depending on where you’re headed.
If you plan on traveling often (or plan to host family from out of town often), keep in mind the closest airport to Longview is in Dallas, about two hours away.
Lifestyle and Recreational Activities
What’s a retirement destination without fun things to do? Longview has more to it than meets the eye, and retirees may be pleasantly surprised at the variety of activities and community events happening all year.
The residents of Longview celebrate big in true Texas fashion, from its springtime rodeo lineup to the Great Texas Balloon Race, Gregg County Fair, Fireworks & Freedom Fourth of July Celebration, and more. Longview hosts celebrations, festivals, and events every single month, making it an active, vibrant community hub for retirees looking to get involved and have some fun.
If you enjoy a bit of learning while taking long, leisurely walks, you’ll want to visit must-see museums like:
For those looking for a little more activity in retirement, Longview is within easy driving distance to Lake O’ the Pines, an 18,700-acre lake encompassing 9,000 acres of forest and land that offers prime opportunities for camping, hiking, fishing, boating, and even bird watching.
Like many other southern cities, Longview boasts mild winters and hot summers, making it an optimal spot to enjoy outdoor activities nearly all year long. That said, those moving to Texas for the first time should be aware of the potential climate risks, including tornadoes, severe heat, and wildfires. Due to these potential concerns, FEMA ranks Longview’s climate risk as relatively moderate.
The Bottom Line
The Sun Belt region is home to many warm and inviting retirement destinations, but few offer the unique blend of affordability and entertainment that Longview does. With its sense of small-town community, combined with easy health care accessibility, it may just be an ideal destination for those looking to enjoy their retirement in a quiet and relaxed setting.
The road ahead for business travel could be bumpy.
Recent US policy changes, including fast-moving trade policy and border enforcement, have contributed to an uncertain outlook for business travel, according to a new report. In poll results announced Wednesday, the Global Business Travel Association said many industry professionals expect business travel volume to drop this year.
More than one-third of global travel managers—those who oversee their company’s travel purchases—anticipate that volume will fall significantly in 2025, according to the GBTA, while less than half of global buyers expect their organizations’ business travel spending and volume to end the year unaffected.
The findings come as travel-industry firms are rethinking their outlooks for the year. United Airlines (UAL) late yesterday offered double-barreled guidance that included a recessionary scenario, while Delta Air Lines (DAL) earlier this month withdrew its full-year forecast.
Almost half of travel buyers responding to another GBTA survey reported earlier this year said they expected their companies to take more trips in 2025, and almost 60% anticipated increased travel spending this year. Hotel operator Marriott (MAR) said earlier this year that business travel had worked its way back to pre-pandemic levels.
Almost 30% of buyers are now predicting an average of a 20% decrease in their business travel spending this year, according to the new GBTA poll.
“Productive and essential business travel is threatened in times of economic uncertainty or in an environment of additional barriers and restrictions,” GBTA CEO Suzanne Neufang said in a statement.
US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s firm stance on prioritizing inflation has dashed expectations for near-term interest-rate cuts. Yesterday, Powell dismissed concerns about disorderly market behaviour, emphasizing that there’s no immediate need for the Fed to intervene. Ironically, this hawkish approach could set the stage for more volatility today, particularly as the long holiday weekend approaches. Traders are expected to scale back their positions to mitigate risks from potential headline-driven shocks.
Indeed, recession odds are climbing even further due to the pushback on the timing of cuts too. This explains why all three major US equity indexes fell on Wednesday – the S&P by 2.24%, the Dow by 1.73% and the Nasdaq by 3.07%. Yields also moved lower, whilst safe haven gold stamped fresh record highs – now up over 25% year-to-date – its best start to a year since 1970.
Already under pressure from tariff and recession risks, US equities are also contending with the “death cross” pattern – a technical signal that some interpret as a harbinger of further downside. This pattern occurs when the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average. While the death cross is often seen as a turning point where a shorter-term correction may evolve into a sustained downtrend, historical data suggests it doesn’t always predict significant declines.
Trade tensions overshadow retail sales boost
George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist
The US dollar index remained under pressure yesterday, flirting with the key 100 handle and near its lowest level in three years. President Trump’s escalating trade barriers, including a new probe into tariffs on critical minerals, have intensified concerns about US economic growth. These potential tariffs, alongside existing threats, have heightened fears of a recession, prompting outflows from dollar-denominated assets.
Earlier concessions on autos and electronics briefly slowed the selloff, but the dollar’s decline resumed as trade tensions with China deepened. The surge in US retail sales didn’t support either because it’s the future impact of tariffs that matters most. The overall tone of the report was stronger than expected as households rushed to purchase cars ahead of anticipated tariffs, yet restaurants and drinking places posted their largest jump since January 2023, indicating a consumer still willing to go out and spend. Nevertheless, the data failed to offset the broader pressure on the dollar even amidst softer inflation readings from Canada, the Eurozone, and the UK, reflecting the growing uncertainty surrounding US trade policies and their global impact.
The US economy faces four major shocks. First, higher tariffs on imports will reduce real disposable income, creating a demand shock. Second, surging policy uncertainty, particularly around trade, is unlikely to ease soon and is already curbing business investment. Third, global supply chain disruptions are intensifying as firms stockpile goods. Finally, tighter financial market conditions are emerging. Falling US stock prices, rising long-term interest rates, a depreciating dollar, and widening corporate bond spreads are dampening consumer spending and business investment. These combined shocks pose significant risks to economic stability.
Tariffs clear way for ECB cut
George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist
Money markets are widely anticipating another 25-basis point rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) today. After the March meeting, the ECB seemed set for a pause, but Trump’s trade tariffs have intensified growth risks, solidifying the case for ECB easing. While fiscal spending from Germany and the EU has improved the Eurozone’s growth outlook, it remains a distant prospect, and the focus now shifts to the ECB’s guidance for the months ahead amidst the tariff turmoil.
Markets expect the deposit facility to drop to 1.75% by Q4, with a possibility of further moves into accommodative territory. However, given the uncertain economic backdrop, the ECB is likely to maintain a cautious stance, keeping its options open. While the growth impact of tariffs is relatively clear, inflation effects remain uncertain and will depend on the evolution of the trade conflict.
What does this mean for the euro though? Strikingly, the correlation between short-term rate differentials and EUR/USD has disappeared since “liberation day,” with the currency pair careering over 5% higher despite the 40 basis point tumble in the German-US two-year yield spread. This adds to the evidence that European bonds and the euro are becoming preferred alternatives as confidence in US assets wane. While ECB rate cuts may marginally impact the euro, broader market dynamics tied to growth concerns are likely to play a more significant role. For now, EUR/USD is expected to find support at $1.13, with an upside target of $1.15 still on the table.
Sterling’s diverging paths
George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist
GBP/USD hit a six-month high yesterday, trading around $1.3250, but has since retreated slightly following Fed Powell’s comments. The circa 5.5% rally in cable year-to-date is mostly down to the weaker USD, driven by concerns over President Trump’s trade policies and their potential impact on the US economy. However, softer-than-expected UK inflation and labour market data this week has also weighed on the pound. This has cemented market expectations of a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut in May, with two more cuts fully priced in by year-end as well.
Against the euro, sterling has struggled more. The GBP/EUR pair reflects the pound’s relative weakness, as the euro benefits from higher liquidity and ongoing repatriation of financial assets into the Eurozone. The UK’s inflation data, combined with a deteriorating labour market outlook, has added to the pound’s challenges, though the pair has rebounded about 1% so far this week following last week’s aggressive selloff.
Overall, the pound’s movements this year have been shaped by mixed UK economic data, but largely due to broader global trade uncertainties. GBP/USD has seen gains due to dollar weakness, but GBP/EUR’s slide highlights the pound’s vulnerability amid global and domestic economic concerns.
*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
