US assets shunned, euro shines – United States

Written by the Market Insights Team
Aversion to US assets as sour mood resumes
George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist
Traders continue to fixate on President Trump’s tariffs and their potential hit to global growth. Following one of the largest surges in 10-year Treasury yields in history and trillions erased from the stock market, Trump surrendered to market forces with a 90-day pause on “reciprocal” tariffs”. Most countries, bar Mexico, Canada and China face 10% levies for now.
This initially sparked an historic relief rally on Wednesday, however, given the impact on economies and the world at large is entirely unpredictable, equities resumed their decline yesterday – the S&P500 sinking around 4%. Oil prices also slumped 5% on demand fears, they’ve swung 21% over the last seven trading days. Meanwhile, the US dollar index fell by 2% – its biggest daily fall in over two years – unable to benefit from rising trading yields as traders dump US assets in tandem. The Swiss franc jumped 3% thanks to its safe haven appeal, and the euro also outshined – more on that below.
Risk appetite wasn’t helped by the fact the White House confirmed the 125% tariff on China actually comes on top of a 20% fentanyl-related tariff imposed earlier this year – meaning that the overall tariff imposed on most goods imported from China stands at 145%.
The bottom line is investors remain concerned an escalation of the trade war between the world’s two biggest economies will bring lasting damage to global growth. Moreover, the tariff pause is really only extending the uncertainty that has already begun to drag on business and consumer sentiment. The path forward likely includes more market swings as we do not have a conclusion.

Euro soars to 3-year high
George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist
The euro surged to a three-year high against the US dollar amid tariff-driven market volatility, as investors offloaded US assets and sought safety in haven currencies backed by current account surpluses.
As well as traders offloading US assets, the European Union’s measured approach in the global trade war is also bolstering the euro’s prospects. EUR/USD surged over 2% on Thursday – its largest daily gain since 2015. This rally aligns with news that the EU may delay its countermeasures to US tariffs, just as President Trump announced a pause on tariffs against most nations. Earlier, the EU had approved tariffs targeting €21 billion worth of US imports.
This de-escalation could ease tensions between the US and EU, reducing the European Central Bank’s (ECB) urgency to cut rates at its upcoming meeting. The ECB has already reduced its benchmark rate by 150 basis points in this cycle, and markets are pricing an over 90% chance of another cut next week. If the ECB holds steady, the euro could gain further support.

US inflation relief
On the macro front, the latest US CPI data offered a glimmer of hope, easing fears of pre-tariff inflation levels and bolstering expectations for future rate cuts after the historic yield spike. This has provided near-term support for bonds. However, higher prices stemming from tariffs and supply chain disruptions loom, with stagflation remaining a significant challenge.
This scenario is likely to keep the Federal Reserve on hold and push yields higher in the coming weeks. A projection of three to four rate cuts this year seems plausible given the deteriorating growth outlook and anticipated softer inflation figures in 2026.
Fed minutes released Wednesday also revealed that officials were already concerned about stagflation prior to the tariff measures. Inflation has remained above target since March 2021, and the prolonged period of elevated inflation, coupled with tariff-induced price shocks, risks destabilizing inflation expectations. This suggests the Fed may maintain steady rates for the foreseeable future as it assesses the full impact of Trump’s policy changes.

Pound eyes worst week since 2022 versus euro
George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist
Sterling is back up above $1.30 versus the US dollar, around 1% higher on the week as investors continue to shun US assets. However, a parabolic rise in the euro, helped by its current account surplus – is dragging GBP/EUR to its worst week since 2022. Stronger-than-expected UK GDP data this morning should offer some meaningful support to the pound in the short term.
The UK economy surprised analysts by growing 0.5% in February, as reported by the Office for National Statistics. This rebound follows a slight contraction in January and offers a temporary boost for Chancellor Rachel Reeves amid looming concerns over the impact of President Trump’s tariff policies. The growth in February may represent a fleeting moment of expansion, with the global trade war expected to weigh heavily on business investment and consumer spending in the coming months.
Meanwhile, as we highlighted might happen yesterday, the Bank of England has dropped plans to sell down its stock of long-dated bonds next week in response to recent market turmoil and will instead sell shorter maturity gilts, a move that will ease pressure on the UK’s long-term borrowing costs. The announcement on Thursday follows a sharp sell-off in the price of UK sovereign bonds with 10- and 30-year maturities in the wake of US President Donald Trump’s jarring imposition of global tariffs.
Usually, currencies move in tandem with yields, but the pound was declining in a sign that the gilt market remains an Achilles heel for sterling. Indeed, despite the 1-week change in UK-German yield spreads jumping by the most in two years, GBP/EUR’s 1-week change has been the biggest drop in three years. UK inflation data next week will also test the gilt market and the pound, especially if it prints higher than expected.

21% swing in oil prices over the week
Table: 7-day currency trends and trading ranges

Key global risk events
Calendar: April 7-11

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