The Citizens Coinage Advisory Committee (CCAC) will hold a brief public meeting via videoconference on Tuesday, April. 15, to discuss design themes for the 2027 and future issues of the American Liberty Gold Coins and Silver Medals.
The CCAC advises the Secretary of the Treasury on themes and designs for all U.S. coins and medals.
CCAC Meeting Time and Public Viewing Options
The meeting will take place from 2:00 p.m. to 3:30 p.m. (ET) and will be live-streamed on the U.S. Mint’s YouTube channel at:
To watch the live broadcast, click on the “April 15, 2025” icon under the Live tab.
Public access to the meeting is for observation only. Those interested in submitting topics for the CCAC’s consideration may do so by emailing [email protected].
U.S. Mint expected designs for the 2025 Proof $50 Superman Gold Coin
What do Homer Simpson, the Olympic games, Elvis Presley, and Superman have in common? They’ve all been featured, or will soon be featured, on coins. This year’s annual National Coin Week, April 20-26, 2025, explores the fascinating ways pop culture influences money.
The nonprofit American Numismatic Association (money.org), based in Colorado Springs, Colo., has sponsored National Coin Week since 1924. This year’s theme is “Iconic Change: Pop Culture & Coins Unite!”
“Coins are not just money,” explained Thomas J. Uram of Pennsylvania, president of the American Numismatic Association (ANA). “They’re pop culture time capsules. From superheroes to sci-fi, sports legends to blockbuster movies, coins have captured the icons we love. National Coin Week 2025 celebrates the surprising ways money and pop culture come together.”
This year, the United States Mint will begin producing collectible coins and medals featuring three iconic DC superheroes “who reflect American values and culture,” according to the Mint. Superman, Batman, and Wonder Woman will be the first characters featured.
“In recent years, other countries have produced coins depicting pop culture themes, such as Homer Simpson on coins struck by the Perth Mint for Tuvalu; Harry Potter, John Lennon, and Paddington Bear featured on various coins made by the Royal Mint in the United Kingdom; and Elvis Presley on coins for Gibraltar made by the Dublin Mint,” said Kim Kiick, American Numismatic Association executive director.
“Many countries including the United States produce coins for the summer and winter Olympics as well as other sporting events. The U.S. has also made coins honoring basketball, baseball, and Jackie Robinson,” she said.
Various contests and activities are taking place during National Coin Week, including one presented by ANA President Uram. Those who correctly identify all the Mint engraver initials on a challenge coin produced by Uram will be entered into a drawing. Prizes include gold and silver coins. Learn more about the contest at money.org/ncw-challenge-coin-contest.
“Money is history you can hold in your hands. Each coin and banknote ever produced has a story to tell, from the first ancient coins struck 2,600 years ago to coins and currency made today around the world,” explained Uram. “National Coin Week is the perfect time to celebrate the history and learn the stories.”
Observed every third week of April, National Coin Week was established a century ago to attract the general public to the enjoyable hobby of coin collecting. For additional information about the observance and related educational activities for children and adults, visit NationalCoinWeek.org.
About American Numismatic Association
The American Numismatic Association is a congressionally chartered, nonprofit educational organization dedicated to encouraging the study and collection of coins and related items. The ANA helps its members and the public discover and explore the world of money through its vast array of educational and outreach programs, to include its museum, library, publications, conventions and webinars. For more information, call 719-632-2646 or visit money.org.
Morgan Stanley (MS) posted better-than-expected first-quarter results on the back of record stock-trading revenue amid volatile markets.
The bank reported earnings per share (EPS) of $2.60 on record revenue of $17.74 billion. Analysts polled by Visible Alpha had expected $2.18 and $16.44 billion, respectively.
Morgan Stanley’s results were powered by equity revenue that soared 45% year-over-year to a record $4.13 billion. The bank said it posted “increases across business lines and regions, particularly in Asia, with outperformance in prime brokerage and derivatives driven by strong client activity amid a more volatile trading environment.”
Morgan Stanley shares were down about 1% in recent trading but have risen more than 20% in the past 12 months.
Global markets were sent on a roller-coaster ride as investors first sent markets lower after the larger-than-expected tariff announcement from US President Donald Trump before Wednesday’s announcement of a pause sent equity markets surging.
Initially, global markets fell, with the US’s S&P 500’s 10.6% two-day loss after the tariff announcement the largest two-day fall since the initial Covid sell-off in March 2020. At its worst, the S&P 500 fell as much as 14.6% after the announcement.
Other markets were also shaken. The US ten-year bond yield fell from 4.13% to 3.85% while crude oil fell 24%.
Mid-week, the moves pushed to an extreme. Most notably, a turn in the US bond market saw the ten-year bond yield surge back to 4.51% from the 3.85% lows in just three trading sessions – a bond market move comparable to British prime minister Liz Truss’s last days.
The market action forced a re-think. US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause in the implementation of the most severe tariffs on the majority of trading partners, but raised tariffs on China to 145%. The benchmark S&P 500 jumped a massive 9.5% in the index’s eighth-best percentage performance in history and the best outside of the Great Depression and Global Financial Crisis eras.
FX markets followed a similar trajectory. However, key moves signalled that the last ten days might have long-term structural impact. The US dollar mostly weakened, losing its safe-haven status, while the euro, yen and swissy outperformed. The CAD and AUD also gained.
Global Macro Biggest policy reversal in history
Trump yields to Treasury market. Before the sun set on “reciprocal tariff day” Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for most countries, which saw stock markets roar back with a vengeance. Part of the Trump Administrations’ plan was to get rates down, but with long-end yields surging higher on stagflation fears, the White House went from declaring no exemptions, no pauses and negotiations one country at a time to eliminate every trade deficit – to a 90-day pause with tariffs dropping to 10% on the majority of the countries on the original list. Apart from China that is. China now faces 145% levies on all goods exports in response to an earlier move by Beijing.
Bond sell-off went too far. A mass departure from longer-dated US Treasuries drove yields sharply higher, triggering the most significant selloff in these so-called safe assets since 2020. Rising borrowing costs were delivering yet another blow to the global economy, already strained by President Trump’s aggressive tariff policies. Higher yields, impacting everything from mortgages to loan rates, are undermining a key objective of Trump’s economic policy – lowering borrowing costs to benefit consumers, as highlighted by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
US dollar weakness. The US dollar can’t recover its safe-haven status. Instead, it has weakened as credibility around policymaking weighs on the greenback. Frequent policy changes and the uncertainty the Trump administration has created are causing harm across the board – from the US economy, its global standing to stock markets and the US dollar.
FX markets remain on edge. Safe havens faced significant selling pressure following the pause announcement, while EM and commodity-linked currencies, previously targeted amid a global trade war, made a robust recovery. However, as the week draws to a close, the flight to quality has re-emerged, exposing the vulnerabilities of cyclical currencies. Meanwhile, the year’s top-performing currencies have maintained their impressive upward momentum.
Week ahead Inflation and central bank policy dominate focus
Inflation data. The upcoming week features key inflation readings from major economies. In the UK, CPI data for March will be released on Wednesday, with the prior YoY figure recorded at 2.8%. The Eurozone will also release finalized inflation data for March on the same day, with headline CPI consensus expectations at 2.2% YoY and MoM at 0.6%. In Canada, March’s CPI data is due Tuesday, with the prior YoY figure at 2.6% and MoM at 1.1%. These releases will provide insights into inflation trends and their potential impact on monetary policy.
Growth indicators. China’s GDP for Q1 2025 will take center stage this week, with the prior YoY growth rate recorded at 5.4%. Accompanying this report are March’s industrial production and retail sales figures, scheduled for release on Wednesday. Industrial production YoY was previously recorded at 5.6%, while retail sales YoY stood at 4.2%. In the US, retail sales data for March will be released on Wednesday, with the prior MoM figure at 0.2%. Additionally, the Empire Manufacturing Index (April) and industrial production data (March) will provide further insights into US economic activity.
Central bank decisions. The Bank of Canada is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, with the current policy rate at 2.75%. On Thursday, the European Central Bank will deliver its rate decision, with the deposit facility rate previously at 2.50% and the main refinancing rate at 2.65%. These decisions will be closely monitored for their implications on EUR and CAD currency pairs.
Key labor market updates. On Tuesday, the UK will release its February jobs report, with most focus on private sector wage growth figures. Australia will release its March employment report on Thursday, with the prior unemployment rate at 4.1% and employment change showing a decline of 52.8k.
FX Views Confidence crisis: traders ditch dollar
USD From safe haven to risk asset. The USD index is around 6-month lows and has dropped a whopping 2.6% this week – its worst weekly performance since late 2022. US stocks, bonds, and the dollar have all faced simultaneous declines, amplifying fears of a mass retreat by foreign investors from US assets. Long-dated Treasury yields have spiked, while the dollar has experienced its steepest drop against the euro and Swiss franc in a decade. Once considered the ultimate safe haven, US Treasury bonds are now under scrutiny as President Trump’s aggressive trade policies disrupt global markets. The introduction of reciprocal tariffs earlier this month has rapidly shifted the dollar’s status from a favoured currency to a gauge of risk aversion, reflecting growing uncertainty and diminishing confidence in US financial stability.
EUR Surges to 3-year high. The euro’s high liquidity and backed by a current account surplus continues to shield it from heightened volatility seen in high beta G10 peers. Being the second most liquid currency in the world and a preferred alternative to the dollar for FX reserves, the euro remains in a good position to benefit from any USD confidence crisis. Indeed, EUR/USD is on track for a second straight week of gains, up almost 4% over the period and over 11% from February lows. After Trump’s tariff pause, the pair dropped 1% but the common currency erased losses on the news the EU was also mulling a hold on its proposed countermeasure. Fair value is highly reliant on the two-year swap rate differential and purely from a rates perspective, EUR/USD looks overvalued given the ECB looks increasingly likely to cut next week, while the Fed still hasn’t given any signal to justify more easing. At first glance, there is probably a slightly downside-tilted risk for the pair, especially as it’s overbought. That said, if the ECB holds rates, the euro might get an additional shot in the arm. In fact, options traders are the most bullish on the euro in five years according to 1-month risk reversals.
GBP Gilt market is an Achilles heel. Sterling is becoming increasingly sensitive to market risk. No longer is it being dubbed a tariff safe haven. It continues to fluctuate against most of its peers in line with broader market sentiment and because the UK will not come away unharmed by a global trade war and economic slowdown. But the rebound in risk appetite after Trump’s tariff pause sent GBP/USD soaring around 2% in two days – back towards $1.30. Another key talking point this week was the meltdown in UK gilts though. The exaggerated moves in gilts, especially compared to Treasuries, suggests that there is pronounced stress out there. The UK’s finances are particularly vulnerable to moves at the longer end of the curve, and 30-year gilt yields jumped to 1998 highs this week. Usually, currencies move in tandem with yields, but the pound was declining in a sign that the gilt market remains an Achilles heel for sterling. Indeed, despite the 1-week change in UK-German yield spreads jumping by the most in two years, GBP/EUR’s 1-week change has been the biggest drop in three years. UK inflation data next week will also test the gilt market and the pound, especially if it prints higher than expected.
CHF Approaching intervention levels. The Swiss franc is experiencing a surge in demand, sparking speculation that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may need to intervene or even push interest rates into negative territory to curb its rapid appreciation. The former runs the risk of it earning Trump’s ire given he already labeled the Swiss as currency manipulators in 2020. Still, the SNB might have to rein in further strength as the franc has emerged as the top-performing major currency, driven by a flight to safety. On a trade-weighted basis, the franc is nearing levels last seen in late 2023, a period when the SNB signaled its willingness to act against excessive currency strength. Meanwhile, the options market indicates further potential for the franc to strengthen, though Trump’s pause has eased such speculation for now.
CNYUS-China tariffs escalate, volatile moves ahead. The US has clarified that tariffs on Chinese imports now total at least 145%, escalating trade tensions and adding to global economic uncertainty. China’s retaliatory measures, including significant tariffs on US goods, further highlight the strained relationship between the two largest economies. USD/CNH is testing resistance near 7.3500, a key level that could pave the way for further upside if breached. However, state bank intervention may limit excessive volatility. On the downside, support is seen at 7.2500, with a deeper pullback potentially targeting 7.2000. Key Chinese economic data, including GDP, industrial production, and retail sales, will provide insights into the broader impact of tariffs, while US-China trade developments will remain a key driver for the pair.
JPY BoJ’s Ueda signals data-dependent approach as Yen nears key support. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has reiterated the central bank’s commitment to a data-driven approach, stating that rate hikes remain on the table if economic recovery continues. However, he also highlighted the need to monitor risks tied to global trade policies and macroeconomic uncertainties. This cautious stance suggests the BoJ is unlikely to make abrupt policy changes in the near term. USD/JPY is approaching a critical support zone near 140.00, which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2020 rally and the lower boundary of its multi-year trading range. A break below this level could trigger further downside toward 138.50. On the upside, resistance is seen at 146.50, with medium-term resistance near the 150.50-151.50 zone. Japanese data releases, including industrial production, trade balance, and CPI figures, will be pivotal in shaping near-term yen dynamics and influencing the BoJ’s policy outlook.
CADThe 1.40 is here. Trump’s 90-day pause has offered some relief, easing tariff pressures on currencies like USD/CAD. However, fundamentally the CAD remains vulnerable as a cyclical currency, affected by lower commodity prices, global recession fears, and lingering tariffs. Tariffs still apply to CUSMA/USCMA non-compliant goods, steel, and aluminum, with auto tariffs set to expand in early May. On the macro side, tariff-related uncertainty has already negatively impacted the data, as reflected in the Bank of Canada’s Q1 business outlook survey.
Even as risk-off sentiment resurfaced to wrap up the week, the USD/CAD found itself drawn toward robust support zones in the 1.405–1.41 range. The Loonie traded this week as high as 1.429, ultimately, breaking the 40-week SMA and the crucial multi-year support level at 1.40, aligning with the 200-day SMA. Should it close below this threshold, further downside toward 1.394 becomes likely, though the current move appears overstretched in the short-term.
AUD RBA’s Bullock maintains cautious tone amid rising economic uncertainty. RBA Governor Michele Bullock has emphasized patience in assessing the economic impact of global trade tensions and domestic conditions, signaling that deep rate cuts are not imminent. The central bank remains focused on its dual mandate of price stability and full employment, while acknowledging the challenges posed by external shocks, including US trade policy measures. This cautious stance suggests the RBA is in no rush to adjust its policy trajectory. AUD/USD faced strong resistance near 0.6400 last week, retreating as risk-off sentiment dominated markets. The pair remains vulnerable to further downside, with key support levels seen in the 0.6000-0.6050 range. Momentum indicators suggest negative pressure persists, with no clear signs of reversal yet. Upcoming data, including RBA meeting minutes, unemployment figures, and labor force participation rates, will be critical in shaping expectations for the RBA’s next moves and the AUD’s direction.
MXNRisk-off hits the Peso. Speculation against emerging market currencies propelled the peso above the critical 21-resistance level, underscoring the profound influence of deteriorating global risk sentiment. Currencies like the Brazilian real, Colombian peso, and Mexican peso have remained closely tied to sentiment in the U.S. stock market, reflecting their reliance on the broader trajectory of risk assets. While the Mexican peso briefly breached the 21 threshold—a level last reached in February and before that in July 2022—it quickly retreated to 20.1.
After this volatile week, the peso’s vulnerabilities to worsening global risk sentiment and external pressures have become increasingly evident. Over the next 90 days, its trajectory will likely remain closely tied to shifts in risk assets and broader financial market conditions.
If speculation against emerging market currencies continues, the peso may gain momentum above 21. However, throughout 2025, the area above 20.8 has failed to hold, with range-bound trading persisting. A decline in sentiment toward emerging markets could push the peso beyond its 2025 trading range. Short-term directions points to 20.4, with resistance at 20.7/8.
*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
The company reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $11.30, well above the $10.13 analysts had expected, while revenue fell just short of Visible Alpha estimates at $5.28 billion.
At the end of the first quarter, BlackRock had a record $11.58 trillion in AUM, up 11% year-over-year.
“Uncertainty and anxiety about the future of markets and the economy are dominating client conversations,” BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said. “We’ve seen periods like this before when there were large, structural shifts in policy and markets—like the financial crisis, COVID, and surging inflation in 2022. We always stayed connected with clients, and some of BlackRock’s biggest leaps in growth followed.”
During periods of market stress, like the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2007 or the Covid-19 shutdown, equities tended to sell off while the US dollar gained strength as investors turned to safe-haven assets. Traditionally, this created a negative correlation between equities and the greenback. However, that relationship has shifter. President Trump’s policy reversals, combined with growing uncertainty and tariff-related tensions, have caused the US dollar and US assets to behave more like risky assets, resembling those of emerging markets.
The weaker dollar brings its own set of challenges. While the Fed’s preferred inflation metric eased to 2.8% year-over-year in March, down from 3.1% in February, a combination of a declining USD and a 10% tariff could reignite inflationary pressures in the second half of 2025. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari highlighted that tariffs have raised the bar for adjusting interest rates, even in the face of rising unemployment. As Kashkari noted, “in my view, the hurdle to change the federal funds rate one way or the other has increased due to the tariffs.”
This perspective contrasts with Scott Bessent’s remarks during his January confirmation hearing for Treasury Secretary. Bessent argued that a 10% tariff could lead to a 4% appreciation in the dollar, effectively offsetting the tariff’s impact on consumers. The US Dollar index has lost 9% over the past 3 months.
Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar has capitalized on the dollar’s struggles. Even as risk-off sentiment resurfaced late in the week, the USD/CAD pair gravitated toward strong support levels in the 1.405–1.41 range, later breaking the critical multi-year support level at 1.40, where the 200-day SMA sits. Now it has closed below this threshold, making a low of 1.384, level not seen since November 2024. Further downside towards 1.38 seems plausible, though the current move appears overstretched in the short term.
Dovish Banxico
Kevin Ford – FX & Macro Strategist
According to the minutes from the March 26, 2025, meeting of the Banco de México Governing Board, the early months of 2025 witnessed a moderation in economic activity, with both advanced and emerging economies experiencing reduced momentum. Growth projections have been scaled back, leaning towards a pessimistic outlook as risks accumulate.
Domestically, the Mexican economy is facing its own share of challenges. A slowdown persisted into the first quarter of 2025, following contractions in agriculture, industry, and other sectors during the final months of 2024. This dip in activity has spilled over into domestic demand, with both consumption and investment taking a hit. Although manufacturing exports have shown some signs of recovery, the labor market remains under pressure, with fewer jobs being created and formal employment declining.
Inflation figures for March 2025 revealed a headline rate of 3.67%, driven by fluctuations in services and merchandise prices. While Banxico foresees inflation converging to its target of 3% by late 2026, risks persist, stemming from broader economic weakness. Against this backdrop, the Governing Board unanimously decided to lower the interbank interest rate by 50 basis points to 9.00%. This move aims to balance inflationary concerns with a need to invigorate economic growth, paving the way for potential rate cuts while maintaining vigilance over inflation.
Adding complexity to the mix are uncertainties tied to U.S. trade policies and tariff measures, which could exert pressure on both inflation and Mexico’s economic performance. On a brighter note, Mexico’s peso appreciated slightly, and government bond yields dipped, signaling relative stability in financial markets despite looming uncertainties.
Through these discussions, Banxico reaffirmed its commitment to curbing inflation and supporting economic stability, even as the global and domestic landscapes present mounting challenges.
Banxico is likely to lower rates by 50 basis points in May and June, and then by 25 basis points in August and September. By the end of the year, the reference rate could reach 7.50%. However, these cuts will largely depend on how many times the Federal Reserve reduces rates this year.
Euro soars to 3-year high
George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist
The euro surged to a three-year high against the US dollar amid tariff-driven market volatility, as investors offloaded US assets and sought safety in haven currencies backed by current account surpluses. There could be scope for more upside too as FX options traders are the most bullish on the euro in five years according to 1-month risk reversals.
As well as traders offloading US assets, the European Union’s measured approach in the global trade war is also bolstering the euro’s prospects. EUR/USD surged over 2% on Thursday – its largest daily gain since 2015. This rally aligns with news that the EU may delay its countermeasures to US tariffs, just as President Trump announced a pause on tariffs against most nations. Earlier, the EU had approved tariffs targeting €21 billion worth of US imports.
This de-escalation could ease tensions between the US and EU, reducing the European Central Bank’s (ECB) urgency to cut rates at its upcoming meeting. The ECB has already reduced its benchmark rate by 150 basis points in this cycle, and markets are pricing an over 90% chance of another cut next week. If the ECB holds steady, the euro could gain further support.
Pound eyes worst week since 2022 versus euro
George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist
Sterling is back up above $1.30 versus the US dollar, around 1% higher on the week as investors continue to shun US assets. However, a parabolic rise in the euro, helped by its current account surplus – is dragging GBP/EUR to its worst week since 2022. Stronger-than-expected UK GDP data this morning should offer some support to the pound in the short term.
The UK economy surprised analysts by growing 0.5% in February, as reported by the Office for National Statistics. This rebound follows a slight contraction in January and offers a temporary boost for Chancellor Rachel Reeves amid looming concerns over the impact of President Trump’s tariff policies. The growth in February may represent a fleeting moment of expansion, with the global trade war expected to weigh heavily on business investment and consumer spending in the coming months.
Meanwhile, as we highlighted might happen yesterday, the Bank of England has dropped plans to sell down its stock of long-dated bonds next week in response to recent market turmoil and will instead sell shorter maturity gilts, a move that will ease pressure on the UK’s long-term borrowing costs. The announcement on Thursday follows a sharp sell-off in the price of UK sovereign bonds with 10- and 30-year maturities, which sent yields soaring to 27-year highs.
Usually, currencies move in tandem with yields, but the pound was declining in a sign that the gilt market remains an Achilles heel for sterling. Indeed, despite the 1-week change in UK-German yield spreads jumping by the most in two years, GBP/EUR’s 1-week change has been the biggest drop in three years. UK inflation data next week will further test the gilt market and the pound, especially if it prints higher than expected.
*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
Global stocks are volatile after China hiked its retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports to 125%, with investors bracing for an escalating trade war.
Beijing raised its levy on U.S. imports from 84% on Friday, two days after President Donald Trump said China would be excluded from his 90-day pause on tariffs.
US stock futures are edging higher after whipsawing between gains and losses, while the dollar is plunging against major currencies.
Global stocks are volatile after China hiked its retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports to 125%, with investors bracing for an escalating trade war.
Beijing raised its levy on U.S. imports from 84% on Friday, two days after President Donald Trump said China would be excluded from his 90-day pause on tariffs. A 10% base rate remains in effect for all countries, while China now faces an overall 145% levy.
“At the current tariff level, there is no market acceptance for US goods exported to China,” China’s State Council Tariff Commission said. “If the US continues to impose tariffs on Chinese goods exported to the US, China will ignore it.”
U.S. stock futures are edging higher, having whipsawed between gains and losses after indexes sank Thursday. Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures are all up less than 1%. The Stoxx Europe 600 index is edging lower. Asian shares closed before China’s latest move, with Japan’s Nikkei ending down 3% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up 1.4%.
Meanwhile, the dollar is plunging against most major currencies and the 10-year Treasury yield is down below 4.40%.
Novartis said it plans to invest $23 billion in the construction and expansion of U.S. facilities.
The move comes after President Trump earlier this week threatened “major” tariffs on pharmaceuticals.
Novartis’ CEO said tariffs were a consideration but not the driving factor behind the investment, Reuters reported Thursday.
Swiss pharmaceutical giant Novartis (NVS) said it plans to invest $23 billion in the construction and expansion of 10 U.S. facilities, as drugmakers brace for potential tariffs from the Trump administration.
The planned investment includes six new manufacturing plants and a San Diego-based research and development site to be built over the next five years. Two of the six plants, which Novartis said will manufacture cancer therapies, are slated to be built in Florida and Texas.
Novartis said it expects the projects to create more than 4,000 American jobs, including 1,000 roles at the company.
Move Comes Amid Tariff Uncertainty
Novartis’ announcement comes after President Donald Trump earlier this week said his administration will “be announcing very shortly a major tariff on pharmaceuticals.”
“We’re going to tariff our pharmaceuticals, and once we do that they’re going to come rushing back into our country because we’re the big market,” Trump said at a dinner hosted by the National Republican Congressional Committee.
Novartis CEO Vas Narasimhan said tariffs were a consideration but not the driving factor behind the investment, Reuters reported Thursday.
Novartis shares were little changed Thursday amid a broader market decline. The stock has gained about 6% in 2025 through Thursday’s close. (Read Investopedia’s live coverage of today’s market action here.)
In February, rival drugmaker Eli Lilly (LLY) said it would invest at least $27 billion to build four new pharmaceutical manufacturing sites in the U.S. A month later, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) announced plans to raise its domestic investments to $55 billion over the next four years.
Traders continue to fixate on President Trump’s tariffs and their potential hit to global growth. Following one of the largest surges in 10-year Treasury yields in history and trillions erased from the stock market, Trump surrendered to market forces with a 90-day pause on “reciprocal” tariffs”. Most countries, bar Mexico, Canada and China face 10% levies for now.
This initially sparked an historic relief rally on Wednesday, however, given the impact on economies and the world at large is entirely unpredictable, equities resumed their decline yesterday – the S&P500 sinking around 4%. Oil prices also slumped 5% on demand fears, they’ve swung 21% over the last seven trading days. Meanwhile, the US dollar index fell by 2% – its biggest daily fall in over two years – unable to benefit from rising trading yields as traders dump US assets in tandem. The Swiss franc jumped 3% thanks to its safe haven appeal, and the euro also outshined – more on that below.
Risk appetite wasn’t helped by the fact the White House confirmed the 125% tariff on China actually comes on top of a 20% fentanyl-related tariff imposed earlier this year – meaning that the overall tariff imposed on most goods imported from China stands at 145%.
The bottom line is investors remain concerned an escalation of the trade war between the world’s two biggest economies will bring lasting damage to global growth. Moreover, the tariff pause is really only extending the uncertainty that has already begun to drag on business and consumer sentiment. The path forward likely includes more market swings as we do not have a conclusion.
Euro soars to 3-year high
George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist
The euro surged to a three-year high against the US dollar amid tariff-driven market volatility, as investors offloaded US assets and sought safety in haven currencies backed by current account surpluses.
As well as traders offloading US assets, the European Union’s measured approach in the global trade war is also bolstering the euro’s prospects. EUR/USD surged over 2% on Thursday – its largest daily gain since 2015. This rally aligns with news that the EU may delay its countermeasures to US tariffs, just as President Trump announced a pause on tariffs against most nations. Earlier, the EU had approved tariffs targeting €21 billion worth of US imports.
This de-escalation could ease tensions between the US and EU, reducing the European Central Bank’s (ECB) urgency to cut rates at its upcoming meeting. The ECB has already reduced its benchmark rate by 150 basis points in this cycle, and markets are pricing an over 90% chance of another cut next week. If the ECB holds steady, the euro could gain further support.
US inflation relief
On the macro front, the latest US CPI data offered a glimmer of hope, easing fears of pre-tariff inflation levels and bolstering expectations for future rate cuts after the historic yield spike. This has provided near-term support for bonds. However, higher prices stemming from tariffs and supply chain disruptions loom, with stagflation remaining a significant challenge.
This scenario is likely to keep the Federal Reserve on hold and push yields higher in the coming weeks. A projection of three to four rate cuts this year seems plausible given the deteriorating growth outlook and anticipated softer inflation figures in 2026.
Fed minutes released Wednesday also revealed that officials were already concerned about stagflation prior to the tariff measures. Inflation has remained above target since March 2021, and the prolonged period of elevated inflation, coupled with tariff-induced price shocks, risks destabilizing inflation expectations. This suggests the Fed may maintain steady rates for the foreseeable future as it assesses the full impact of Trump’s policy changes.
Pound eyes worst week since 2022 versus euro
George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist
Sterling is back up above $1.30 versus the US dollar, around 1% higher on the week as investors continue to shun US assets. However, a parabolic rise in the euro, helped by its current account surplus – is dragging GBP/EUR to its worst week since 2022. Stronger-than-expected UK GDP data this morning should offer some meaningful support to the pound in the short term.
The UK economy surprised analysts by growing 0.5% in February, as reported by the Office for National Statistics. This rebound follows a slight contraction in January and offers a temporary boost for Chancellor Rachel Reeves amid looming concerns over the impact of President Trump’s tariff policies. The growth in February may represent a fleeting moment of expansion, with the global trade war expected to weigh heavily on business investment and consumer spending in the coming months.
Meanwhile, as we highlighted might happen yesterday, the Bank of England has dropped plans to sell down its stock of long-dated bonds next week in response to recent market turmoil and will instead sell shorter maturity gilts, a move that will ease pressure on the UK’s long-term borrowing costs. The announcement on Thursday follows a sharp sell-off in the price of UK sovereign bonds with 10- and 30-year maturities in the wake of US President Donald Trump’s jarring imposition of global tariffs.
Usually, currencies move in tandem with yields, but the pound was declining in a sign that the gilt market remains an Achilles heel for sterling. Indeed, despite the 1-week change in UK-German yield spreads jumping by the most in two years, GBP/EUR’s 1-week change has been the biggest drop in three years. UK inflation data next week will also test the gilt market and the pound, especially if it prints higher than expected.
*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
TECHNICAL DATA Composition: nickel-electroplated zinc-based alloy Diameter: 23.50 mm Weight: 6.40 g Thickness: 2.30 mm Mint: NBU Banknote Printing and Minting Works (Ukraine)
The Citizens Coinage Advisory Committee (CCAC) will hold a brief public meeting via videoconference on Tuesday, April. 15, to discuss design themes for the 2027 and future issues of the American Liberty Gold Coins and Silver Medals.
