Software companies like Microsoft and Adobe are more insulated from tariffs than tech firms that depend heavily on hardware sales, Morningstar analysts wrote in a note this week.
The analysts estimated about 60% of smartphones and PCs are imported from China, which raises tariff-related risks for companies like Dell, HP, and Apple amid trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
President Trump said Tuesday that tariffs on imports from China “will come down substantially but it won’t be zero.”
Tech investors looking to reduce their risk in an unpredictable trade environment could turn to software names like Microsoft (MSFT) and Adobe (ADBE) over tech firms that depend more heavily on hardware sales, Morningstar analysts wrote in a note this week.
Microsoft, for instance, “has minimal risk exposure to retail, advertising spending, cyclical hardware, or physical supply chains,” they said. Similarly, they added Creative Cloud developer Adobe has a long-term competitive advantage over many other tech firms, pointing to its “wide moat” and minimal risk of disruption.
Smartphones, computers, and semiconductors are presently exempt from President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs, but the administration has warned new tech tariffs could be coming in the next few months.
Morningstar analysts estimated that about 60% of smartphones and PCs are imported from China, which raises tariff-related risks for companies like Dell (DELL), HP (HPQ), and Apple (AAPL), amid trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
President Trump said Tuesday that tariffs on imports from China “will come down substantially but it won’t be zero.” Earlier this month, Trump had raised import taxes on Chinese goods to 145%, and China retaliated with 125% tariffs on U.S. goods.
ServiceNow shares jumped more than 10% in extended trading on Wednesday after the enterprise software provider posted better-than-expected quarterly results and issued a rosy subscription revenue outlook.
The stock broke out above the upper trendline of a descending channel in Wednesday’s regular trading session, setting the stage for a bullish trend reversal.
Investors should watch crucial overhead areas on ServiceNow’s chart around $900, $1,000, and $1,160, while also eyeing an important support level near $807.
ServiceNow (NOW) shares surged in extended trading on Wednesday after the enterprise software provider posted better-than-expected quarterly results and issued a subscription revenue outlook that surpassed Wall Street expectations.
Through Wednesday’s close, ServiceNow shares had lost nearly a quarter of their value since the start of the year, weighed down in part by concerns that the company’s revenue could take a hit from the Trump administration’s efforts to rein in government spending.
The uncertainty surrounding Trump’s plans for tariffs is also a concern for businesses, but ServiceNow CFO Gina Mastantuono said she’s “very confident” in the company’s “ability to navigate these rapidly evolving times,” Barron’s reported. She added that demand signals from business leaders remain strong.
ServiceNow shares rose more than 10% in after-hours trading to about $898.
Below, we take a closer look at Service Now’s chart and apply technical analysis to identify crucial post-earnings price levels worth watching out for.
Descending Channel Breakout
Since completing a double top in late January, ServiceNow shares trended lower within a descending channel for several months before breaking out above the pattern’s upper trendline on Wednesday, setting the stage for a bullish trend reversal.
Importantly, the relative strength index (RSI) confirms bullish momentum, though the indicator remains well below overbought levels, giving the stock ample room to climb.
Let’s identify three crucial overhead areas on ServiceNow’s chart worth watching and also point out an important support level to eye during pullbacks.
Crucial Overhead Areas Worth Watching
The first higher level to watch sits around $900. The shares could encounter overhead resistance in this area near a trendline that connects a range of comparable price action on the chart extending back to last September.
A convincing close above this level may fuel a move to the psychological $1,000 level. Investors who have purchased shares at lower prices could look for profit-taking opportunities in this region near the mid-February countertrend peak, an area that closely aligns with a minor retracement in the stock last November.
Further buying could underpin a move up to $1,160. This area on the chart would likely attract considerable attention near the prominent December and January peaks that marked the stock’s double top.
Important Support Level to Eye
Finally, a loss of upside earnings-driven momentum could see ServiceNow shares retrace to around $807. However, investors would likely view this area as a high-probability entry point near the initial breakout location, which also lines up with several peaks and troughs on the chart stretching back to July last year.
The comments, opinions, and analyses expressed on Investopedia are for informational purposes only. Read our warranty and liability disclaimer for more info.
As of the date this article was written, the author does not own any of the above securities.
Want to secure your return for the long term? The top rates for 2-year through 5-year certificates currently range from 4.28% to 4.32%.
The best CD rate in the country remains 4.60%, available from T Bank for 6 months or Abound Credit Union for 10 months.
For a rate lock extending to October 2026, XCEL Federal Credit Union’s 18-month certificate is paying 4.50% APY.
A total of 17 offers guarantee rates of at least 4.50% in terms ranging from 3 to 18 months.
The Fed is currently in “wait-and-see” mode regarding 2025 rate cuts. But given today’s uncertain economy, it can be smart to lock in one of today’s best CDs while you can.
Below you’ll find featured rates available from our partners, followed by details from our ranking of the best CDs available nationwide.
Rates of 4.50% to 4.60% You Can Guarantee as Long as 2026
CD rates have been slowly declining, but you can still snag a 4.60% return from either T Bank, for a 6-month rate lock, or Abound Credit Union, for a 10-month guarantee. Abound’s offer would stretch your rate guarantee into early 2026.
A total of 17 CDs pay at least 4.50%, with the longest term among these being 18 months. That CD is available from XCEL Federal Credit Union, and it will lock in a 4.50% rate until October of next year.
To view the top 15–20 nationwide rates in any term, click on the desired term length in the left column above.
All Federally Insured Institutions Are Equally Protected
Your deposits at any FDIC bank or NCUA credit union are federally insured, meaning you’re protected by the U.S. government in the unlikely case that the institution fails. Not only that, but the coverage is identical—deposits are insured up to $250,000 per person and per institution—no matter the size of the bank or credit union.
Consider Longer-Term CDs To Guarantee Your Rate Further Into the Future
For a rate lock you can enjoy into 2027, Lafayette Federal Credit Union is paying 4.28% APY for a full 24 months. Want a longer guarantee with a slightly higher APY? Genisys Credit Union is still offering 4.32% for 30 months.
Savers who want to stash their money away for even longer might like the leading 4-year or 5-year certificates. Though the 4-year rate dropped last week from 4.40%, you can still lock in a 4.28% rate for 4 years from Lafayette Federal Credit Union. In fact, Lafayette promises the same 4.28% APY on all its certificates from 7 months through 5 years, letting you secure that rate as far as 2030.
Multiyear CDs are likely smart right now, given the possibility of Fed rate cuts in 2025 and perhaps 2026. The central bank has so far lowered the federal funds rate by a full percentage point, and this year could see additional cuts. While any interest-rate reductions from the Fed will push bank APYs lower, a CD rate you secure now will be yours to enjoy until it matures.
Today’s Best CDs Still Pay Historically High Returns
It’s true that CD rates are no longer at their peak. But despite the pullback, the best CDs still offer a stellar return. October 2023 saw the best CD rates push above 6%, while the leading rate is currently down to 4.60%. Compare that to early 2022, before the Federal Reserve embarked on its fast-and-furious rate-hike campaign. The most you could earn from the very best CDs in the country then ranged from just 0.50% to 1.70% APY, depending on the term.
Jumbo CDs Top Regular CDs in 4 Terms
Jumbo CDs require much larger deposits and sometimes pay premium rates—but not always. In fact, the best jumbo CD rates right now are equal to or lower than the best standard CD rates in half the terms we track.
Among 18-month CDs, both the top standard and top jumbo CDs pay the same rate of 4.50% APY. Meanwhile, institutions are offering higher jumbo rates in the following terms:
3 years:Hughes Federal Credit Union offers 4.34% for a 3-year jumbo CD vs. 4.32% for the highest standard rate.
4 years: Lafayette Federal Credit Union offers 4.33% for a 4-year jumbo CD vs. 4.28% for the highest standard rate.
5 years: Both GTE Financial and Lafayette Federal Credit Union offer 4.33% for jumbo 5-year CDs vs. 4.28% for the highest standard rate.
That makes it smart to always check both types of offerings when CD shopping. If your best rate option is a standard CD, simply open it with a jumbo-sized deposit.
*Indicates the highest APY offered in each term. To view our lists of the top-paying CDs across terms for bank, credit union, and jumbo certificates, click on the column headers above.
Where Are CD Rates Headed in 2025?
In December, the Federal Reserve announced a third rate cut to the federal funds rate in as many meetings, reducing it a full percentage point since September. But in January and March, the central bankers declined to make further cuts to the benchmark rate.
The Fed’s three 2024 rate cuts represented a pivot from the central bank’s historic 2022–2023 rate-hike campaign, in which the committee aggressively raised interest rates to combat decades-high inflation. At its 2023 peak, the federal funds rate climbed to its highest level since 2001—and remained there for nearly 14 months.
Fed rate moves are significant to savers, as reductions to the fed funds rate push down the rates banks and credit unions are willing to pay consumers for their deposits. Both CD rates and savings account rates reflect changes to the fed funds rate.
Time will tell what exactly will happen to the federal funds rate in 2025 and 2026—and tariff activity from the Trump administration has the potential to alter the Fed’s course. But with more Fed rate cuts possibly arriving this year, today’s CD rates could be the best you’ll see for some time—making now a smart time to lock in the best rate that suits your personal timeline.
Daily Rankings of the Best CDs and Savings Accounts
We update these rankings every business day to give you the best deposit rates available:
Important
Note that the “top rates” quoted here are the highest nationally available rates Investopedia has identified in its daily rate research on hundreds of banks and credit unions. This is much different than the national average, which includes all banks offering a CD with that term, including many large banks that pay a pittance in interest. Thus, the national averages are always quite low, while the top rates you can unearth by shopping around are often five, 10, or even 15 times higher.
How We Find the Best CD Rates
Every business day, Investopedia tracks the rate data of more than 200 banks and credit unions that offer CDs to customers nationwide and determines daily rankings of the top-paying certificates in every major term. To qualify for our lists, the institution must be federally insured (FDIC for banks, NCUA for credit unions), the CD’s minimum initial deposit must not exceed $25,000, and any specified maximum deposit cannot be under $5,000.
Banks must be available in at least 40 states. And while some credit unions require you to donate to a specific charity or association to become a member if you don’t meet other eligibility criteria (e.g., you don’t live in a certain area or work in a certain kind of job), we exclude credit unions whose donation requirement is $40 or more. For more about how we choose the best rates, read our full methodology.
Chipotle (CMG) reported first-quarter revenue that missed Wall Street’s expectations and lowered its full-year sales outlook, sending shares lower in extended trading Wednesday.
The fast-casual chain reported revenue of $2.88 billion, up 6.4% year-over-year but slightly below the analyst consensus from Visible Alpha. Net income of $396.8 million, or 29 cents per share, compared to $369.3 million, or 27 cents per share, a year earlier, topping Wall Street’s estimates. Comparable sales declined 0.4%, missing projections.
Chipotle said it now expects comparable sales growth for the full year in the low-single digit range, down from its previous estimate of low- to mid-single digit growth. Analysts had called for 3.1% growth.
CEO Scott Boatwright said the company’s results were “impacted by several headwinds including weather and a slowdown in consumer spending.”
On Monday, Chipotle said it plans to open its first location in Mexico by early 2026 and explore expanding to additional markets. The company operates about 3,600 locations in the U.S., 58 in Canada, and five in the Middle East.
Chipotle shares fell more than 3% in after-hours trading. The stock has lost about a fifth of its value so far in 2025 through Wednesday’s close.
Texas Instruments (TXN) issued an outlook well above Wall Street’s projections and posted better-than-expected earnings for the first quarter, sending shares higher in extended trading Wednesday.
The semiconductor company projected second-quarter revenue of $4.17 billion to $4.53 billion and earnings per share of $1.21 to $1.47. Analysts on average had been looking for $4.14 billion and $1.24 per share, respectively, according to Visible Alpha.
Shares of Texas Instruments jumped over 5% in after-hours trading, after climbing close to 4% in Wednesday’s session. They were down about 19% for 2025 through Wednesday’s close.
Texas Instruments reported first-quarter revenue of $4.07 billion, up 11% year-over-year and above the analyst consensus from Visible Alpha. Net income of $1.18 billion, or $1.28 per share, compared to $1.1 billion, or $1.20 per share, a year earlier, also topping Street estimates.
The results come after Citi analysts suggested earlier this month that analog chip firms like Texas Instruments could be positioned to outperform other types of semiconductor companies during an economic downturn.
Written by Steven Dooley, Head of Market Insights, and Shier Lee Lim, Lead FX and Macro Strategist
Trump administration eyes long-haul approach on China trade
The greenback strengthened by 1% overnight but still below 100 key psychological barrier.
The CNH remained about 0.35% stronger at 7.2860, while high-beta currencies tracked higher US equities.
Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated rebalancing US-China trade could take two to three years, examining multiple factors including non-tariff barriers, government subsidies, and tariffs.
Key developments include possible auto parts exemptions from China tariffs according to the FT, and speculation about potential lower tariff rates of 50%-65% or a tiered approach.
We do expect higher FX volatility in the coming weeks.
The AUD/USD still below 0.6400 with a 0.1% loss overnight.
The NZD/USD, down 0.4%, still hovering below key psychological barrier of 0.6000.
WSJ says White House looking at slashing China tariffs
The Wall Street Journal reports that the White House is looking at ways to de-escalate trade tensions with China.
It said some tariffs could be cut in half on the plans being considered.
One official told the Journal that tariffs could be cut back to between 50% and 65%.
It said there is also some consideration of tiered tariffs: for example only 35% on goods that the US does not consider a threat to national security, but 100% on those goods that it does.
Nevertheless, USD/CNH has trailed its key 50-day EMA at 7.2881 recently, where the next key resistance lies at 7.3000 and 7.5000 next.
ECB/Bundesbank’s Nagel worries about recession and stagflation
Bundesbank President Nagel said he couldn’t rule out Germany dropping into recession this year.
Speaking on Bloomberg TV, he said the world economy was in a very delicate position.
He said although he didn’t think Germany’s fiscal package would be inflationary, he was still concerned that overall the Eurozone could see what amounts to a stagflationary environment this year.
Nagel was marginally dovish, but not overtly.
He said the ECB should be considered to be on autopilot and that it would continue to assess policy meeting-by-meeting.
EUR/USD has corrected from recent daily highs.
For EUR/SGD, next key support lies on 21-day EMA of 1.4801, and 50-day EMA of 1.4585 next, where EUR buyers may look to take advantage.
Aussie pairs scale back from highs
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
Australian bullion demand hit multi-month highs in March, according to data published by The Perth Mint of Australia, with both gold and silver sales posting sharp increases compared to February – a month that had already shown improvement over January, when gold sales hit a 10-month low and silver sales fell to a 67-month low.
CoinNews photo of 2025 Australian Kookaburra 1oz Silver Bullion Coins – Obverse and Reverse
The Mint’s sales occurred against a backdrop of soaring precious metal prices. In March, LBMA prices (USD) saw gold jump 9.9% and silver rally 9.4%.
Perth Mint Gold Bullion Sales in March and First Quarter 2025
The Perth Mint’s March sales of gold coins and bars climbed to 40,537 ounces – the highest monthly total since November – jumping 61.5% from February and soaring 146.6% above March 2024.
Neil Vance, General Manager of Minted Products at Mint, said it was encouraging to see demand for minted products rebounding despite elevated precious metal prices.
“Our gold Kangaroo coins are more popular than ever, with sales particularly strong in Australia and Germany,” Vance noted. “Our 1oz gold and silver bullion 2025 Year of the Snake coins have sold out which is testament to the enduring popularity of the Lunar series around the world.”
For the quarter, gold sales totaled 84,188 ounces, representing a 4.5% decline from the 88,179 ounces sold during the same period last year.
Perth Mint Silver Bullion Sales in March and First Quarter 2025
Sales of minted silver coins and bars reached 713,306 ounces in March – the highest monthly total since December – rising 47.9% from February but down 17.1% compared to March 2023.
“Our new silver Koala coins have also been very well received,” Vance commented.
For the quarter, silver sales totaled 1,610,732 ounces, down 38.9% from the 2,636,850 ounces recorded in the first three months of 2024.
Perth Mint Gold and Silver Sales by Month through March 2025
Below is a monthly summary of Perth Mint bullion sales from January 2022 to March 2025. The figures show monthly ounces of gold and silver shipped as minted products by The Perth Mint to wholesale and retail customers worldwide. It excludes sales of cast bars and other Group activities including sales of allocated/unallocated precious metal for storage by the Depository.
Perth Mint Bullion Sales (in troy ounces)
Silver
Gold
March 2025
713,306
40,537
February 2025
482,451
25,103
January 2025
414,975
18,548
December 2024
1,057,311
31,727
November 2024
1,055,657
58,136
October 2024
539,898
29,935
September 2024
963,198
53,143
August 2024
647,382
25,884
July 2024
939,473
25,457
June 2024
491,946
22,520
May 2024
796,934
23,238
April 2024
684,735
33,387
March 2024
860,672
16,442
February 2024
1,006,852
47,086
January 2024
769,326
24,651
December 2023
681,490
36,297
November 2023
672,623
53,520
October 2023
1,073,553
42,302
September 2023
1,116,779
36,530
August 2023
792,503
34,875
July 2023
863,485
44,009
June 2023
1,326,011
73,124
May 2023
1,881,001
72,889
April 2023
1,947,743
75,166
March 2023
1,823,096
80,541
February 2023
1,484,936
52,241
January 2023
1,233,344
64,395
December 2022
1,634,751
60,634
November 2022
1,315,293
114,304
October 2022
1,995,350
183,102
September 2022
2,579,941
88,554
August 2022
1,655,334
84,976
July 2022
2,465,513
79,305
June 2022
1,523,765
65,281
May 2022
2,217,582
98,515
April 2022
2,119,491
80,941
March 2022
1,649,634
121,997
February 2022
1,632,323
72,651
January 2022
2,387,165
66,709
Bullion Coins Released in March 2025
In March, as reported by The Perth Mint, the following bullion coins were released:
Australian Koala 2025 1oz Silver Bullion Coin
Australian Koala 2025 1 Kilo Silver Bullion Coin
In February, as reported by the Mint, the following bullion coins were released:
Lunar Snake 1oz Silver Minted Bar in Pouch
Lunar Snake 1oz Silver Minted Bar in Tube
Lunar Snake 1oz Gold Minted Bar
Chinese Myths and Legends Four Guardians 2025 1oz Gold Bullion Coin
Australian Kookaburra 2025 1 Kilo Silver Bullion Coin
Australian Wedge-tailed Eagle 2025 1oz Silver Bullion Coin
In January, as reported by the Mint, the following bullion coins were released:
Lunar Dragon 1oz Silver Minted Bar in Tube
Lunar Dragon 1oz Silver Minted Bar in Pouch
Australian Lunar Series III 2025 Year of the Snake 1oz Silver Bullion Coin with Dragon Privy
Australian Lunar Series III 2025 Year of the Snake 1oz Gold Bullion Coin with Dragon Privy
In November, as reported by the Mint, the following bullion coins were released:
Australian Kangaroo 2025 1oz Silver Bullion Coin in Tube
Australian Kangaroo 2025 1oz Silver Individual Bullion Coin
Australian Kangaroo 2025 1 Kilo Gold Bullion Coin
Australian Kangaroo 2025 1oz Gold Bullion Coin
Australian Kangaroo 2025 1/2oz Gold Bullion Coin
Australian Kangaroo 2025 1/4oz Gold Bullion Coin
Australian Kangaroo 2025 1/10oz Gold Bullion Coin
Australian Kangaroo 2025 1oz Platinum Bullion Coin
Australian Lunar Series III 2024 Year of the Dragon 10 Kilo Silver Bullion Coin
Australian Koala 2024 1/10oz Gold Bullion Coin
Australian Koala 2024 1/10oz Platinum Bullion Coin
Australian Lunar Series III 2025 Year of the Snake 1 Kilo Silver Bullion Coin
Australian Lunar Series III 2025 Year of the Snake 5oz Silver Bullion Coin
In October, as reported by Mint, the following bullion coins were released:
Australian Wombat 2024 1oz Silver Bullion Coin
Super Pit 2024 1oz Silver Individual Bullion Coin
Super Pit 2024 1oz Silver Bullion Coins in Tube
Super Pit 2024 1oz Gold Bullion Coin
Super Pit 2024 5oz Gold Bullion Coin
Welcome Nugget 2024 1oz Gold Bullion Coin
Chinese Myths and Legends Four Guardians 2024 1oz Silver Bullion Coin
In September, as reported by the Mint, the following bullion coins were released:
Australian Lunar Series III 2025 Year of the Snake 2oz Gold Bullion Coin
Australian Lunar Series III 2025 Year of the Snake 1oz Gold Bullion Coin
Australian Lunar Series III 2025 Year of the Snake 1/2oz Gold Bullion Coin
Australian Lunar Series III 2025 Year of the Snake 1/10oz Gold Bullion Coin
Australian Lunar Series III 2025 Year of the Snake 1/4oz Gold Bullion Coin
Australian Lunar Series III 2025 Year of the Snake 2oz Silver Bullion Coin
Australian Lunar Series III 2025 Year of the Snake 1oz Silver Bullion Coin
Australian Lunar Series III 2025 Year of the Snake 1/2oz Silver Bullion Coin
Australian Lunar Series III 2025 Year of the Snake 1oz Platinum Bullion Coin
Australian Emu 2024 1oz Silver Bullion Coin
Australian Emu 2024 1oz Gold Bullion Coin
Bullion Coins That Sold Out
The Mint also reported that the following bullion coins “recently sold out:”
Australian Lunar Series III 2025 Year of the Snake 1oz Silver Bullion Coin
Australian Lunar Series III 2025 Year of the Snake 1oz Gold Bullion Coin
2024 125th Anniversary of The Perth Mint 1oz Platinum Bullion Coin
Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol has been busy with a turnaround plan at the coffee chain since taking over last fall.
His changes include revamping cafes, prioritizing speed, bringing back handwritten messages on cups, and an updated dress code.
A recent Deutsche Bank survey suggested that price may be even more important to coffee drinkers. Starbucks is set to report its next quarterly earnings on Tuesday.
The Starbucks (SBUX) makeover continues, affecting both the shops and the people who staff them. We’ll learn more about how it’s going over with customers next week.
The company’s “Back to Starbucks” campaign, geared toward bringing customers back to the global coffee chain, is evolving as CEO Brian Niccol, who took over last fall, continues to make changes to the company’s appearance and operations. “Our problems are fixable,” Niccol said in October. “Most of what we need to do is in our control.”
The coffee chain is revamping its cafes in a bid to make them feel more cozy and welcoming, prioritizing efficiency and speed by making it a mission to get customers their orders within four minutes, and restoring its condiments bar.
Starbucks has also brought back something divisive: Sharpies.
Messages on To-Go Cups Make a Comeback
If your Starbucks order recently came to you with hearts or a smiley face on it, the barista probably wasn’t flirting with you. Workers were required to write messages or doodles on every to-go cup as of January. Starbucks did not immediately respond to Investopedia’s request for comment, but The Wall Street Journal recently reported that customer reactions are running the gamut from delighted, to confused— to indifferent.
The worker drawing your doodle might also dress a little differently. Earlier this month, the coffee chain earlier this month announced plans to update its dress code for a “more consistent coffeehouse experience” that bolsters the brand.
“We’re evolving our dress code in all stores to focus on simplified color options that allow our iconic green apron to shine and create a sense of familiarity for our customers, no matter which store they visit across North America,” said Starbucks.
The updated look will require workers to pair their green apron with a company-branded shirt, two of which are provided gratis, or a solid black shirt with khaki, black, or blue denim bottoms. Previously, baristas could wear any color top or bottom with their apron.
The look of the cafes and workers isn’t what has kept customers away from Starbucks, though: It’s the price, according to a recent Deutsche Bank survey. Starbucks is expected to report its earnings next Tuesday, while shares are down about 9% this year.
At its last two meetings, the Fed left interest rates on pause, halting a stretch of three rate cuts in late 2024.
Renewed reductions are eventually expected, with financial markets currently pricing in at least three rate cuts by the end of this year.
But how that would affect mortgage rates is murky, as the Fed’s rate is just one of many factors influencing mortgage prices. In fact, mortgages and the Fed can move in opposite directions.
It’s been a roller-coaster ride this month for 30-year mortgage rates, triggered by President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the resulting market chaos.
Given how uncertain the U.S. economic outlook is right now, what the Fed and mortgage rates will do in 2025 is also highly uncertain.
The full article continues below these offers from our partners.
What Markets Currently Predict From the Fed in 2025
At both its January and March meetings (there was no February meeting), the Federal Reserve announced it was maintaining the federal funds rate at its current level. That paused a three-meeting run of rate cuts between September and December 2024, which had lowered the benchmark rate by a full percentage point. Previously, the Fed had held its key rate at a historic 23-year high for 14 months.
Now, another Fed meeting is coming, with the central bank’s rate-setting committee scheduled to announce its next decision on May 7. Though anything can happen in the next two weeks, CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows it’s overwhelmingly predicted right now that the Fed will hold its benchmark rate steady.
But there are five more Fed rate-setting meetings scheduled in 2025 after the May gathering, and according to year-end probabilities reported by the CME Group, traders are currently pricing in an almost 75% probability that cuts totaling at least 0.75 points will be announced by December 2025. Most likely, that would occur as three 0.25-point cuts, but the Fed could also choose to make a larger reduction at any meeting.
As for when the Fed’s predicted rate reductions will arrive, markets are betting we’ll be waiting at least a couple more months before the first cut of 2025. It’s not until the Fed’s June 17–18 meeting that the majority odds favor a quarter-point rate decrease.
Important
As we always caution, rate predictions far into the future should not be considered reliable, as the Fed makes each of its rate decisions meeting by meeting based on the latest economic data available. And that’s especially true right now due to the possibility that the Trump administration’s tariff policy will push inflation rates higher.
Will a Lower Fed Rate Mean Lower Mortgage Rates?
It’s a common belief that when the Federal Reserve raises the federal funds rate, as it did aggressively during 2022 and 2023, mortgage rates will climb. Conversely, the logic goes, when the Fed lowers the federal funds rate, it’s expected that mortgage rates will fall. So, if the Fed reduces its benchmark rate later this year, can we expect mortgage rates to drop?
Unfortunately, the relationship between the federal funds rate and what mortgage lenders offer is not quite so clear. Instead, moves by the central bank more directly impact short-term rates, such as those paid on bank accounts as well as those charged on credit card and personal loan balances.
Since fixed mortgages offer the stability of a long-term rate, their connection to Fed rate changes is more tenuous. Beyond the federal funds rate, a tangle of economic factors affects the mortgage lending market. These include inflation, consumer demand, housing supply, the strength of the current economy, and the status of the bond market, especially that of 10-year Treasury yields. Given these other influences, mortgage rates and the Fed funds rate can move independently—even in opposite directions.
That’s exactly what we saw in the last quarter of 2024, when mortgage rates shot up despite a bold half-point rate cut in September. Not only that, but after two more Fed reductions, 30-year mortgage rates surged again in late December and January, reaching almost 1.25 percentage points higher than before the Fed’s first rate cut.
Fallout from President Trump’s tariff policy put into effect on April 2 has also pushed mortgage rates around. Initially, the stock market dropped, sending bond yields lower. This caused a quick mortgage rate decline. But the massive uncertainty surrounding tariffs, and the trade wars they’ve ignited, later sent bond yields much higher, causing mortgage rates to surge.
Since then, the 30-year mortgage rate average has again fallen and again climbed for an April roller coaster fueled by market uncertainties waiting to be resolved. So while the Fed is most likely to signal in May that it remains in “wait and see” mode, other swirling economic factors clearly have the power to dramatically impact mortgage rates even when the Fed is doing nothing to its benchmark rate.
One especially important factor for bond yields—and therefore mortgage rates—is the future outlook for the Fed’s benchmark rate. In other words, what’s expected to happen with the Fed rate is often more impactful to mortgage rates than where the federal funds rate sits right now.
True, financial markets have assigned a majority probability that we’ll see at least three rate cuts this year. But in today’s economic and political environment—and the uncertainty over which tariffs will stick, which will be softened, which will turn into all-out trade wars—nothing can be truly counted on right now. Inflation, for instance, could rise substantially, which in turn could scare the Fed off any rate cuts in the near term.
For now, the Fed’s expected rate hold in two weeks will likely do little, if anything, to the direction of mortgage rates. More impactful will be the status of tariff policy and the next round of inflation readings. Also useful will be the Federal Reserve’s next official statement on where it expects its benchmark rate will be by the end of the year (its “dot plot” forecast). But since it releases that projection only quarterly, we’ll be left waiting until the June 17–18 meeting to see behind that curtain.
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Editor’s Note:If you’re a football fan, you probably know that the 2025 NFL Draft is set to kick off tomorrow. Over the next three days, college players will be selected by a pro team – millions of fans will follow every move, hoping their team will find the next great superstar.
Many factors go into these selections… statistics, performance at the NFL Scouting Combine, personal interviews, advanced analytics, and much more. In that way, it’s a lot like investing, where you want to have the right tools to pick stocks that will push your portfolio over the top.
Our corporate partner, TradeSmith, has taken this to a new level. They’ve incorporated AI into a new tool called An-E (short for Analytical Engine), which delivers projections for how a stock will perform over the next 21 trading days.
It goes without saying, but this gives a huge advantage to investors. And that’s why they recently hosted a special event – to explain how you can harness its power to gain an edge in the market.
But this will only be available until midnight tonight, so you need to act quickly before it’s taken down.
Now, I’ll let TradeSmith CEO Keith Kaplan explain more…
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This week is a big one for sports fans: It’s time for the 2025 NFL Draft.
Starting tomorrow, 32 teams will look for the missing pieces that’ll put them on a path to the Super Bowl.
The evaluations that each team uses to create its “draft board” consist of both old-school inputs (such as college game tapes, 40-yard dash times, and pre-draft meetings) and new-school analytics (such as the S2 cognition test, which gauges how quickly and accurately a player can see order in the chaos that’s part and parcel of the football gridiron).
The more information you have, the more likely you’ll snag a generational talent and avoid the draft-day “busts” that’ll set you back years… and put your team on those “biggest-missteps-of-all-time” lists that never seem to go away.
Investing is a lot like the NFL Draft.
You want to stuff your portfolio with generational winners – and you want to avoid the big losers that’ll grind your ego for years.
Information is the great differentiator. And the “right” information – analyzed correctly and in a timely manner – is what will separate you from everyone else.
When you get right down to it, that’s what we’re all about at TradeSmith.
Our pioneering analytics zero in on the information that matters. And we create systems that help you “draft” the right stocks, assets, or trading opportunities at just the right time.
We package that into products that meet different objectives.
And we’ve done it again, with an artificial intelligence-powered trading algorithm we’ve nicknamed An-E (short for Analytical Engine).
This AI technology performs a very powerful task: After analyzing thousands of key data points, it creates a projection of where a stock will be trading in a short period of time…
Online shopping has largely made visiting a physical store irrelevant – and sometimes, a downright pain.
Why spend gas money driving to a store for one item and hoping it isn’t out of stock when you can have it delivered to your doorstep with just a few mouse clicks?
Walmart has clearly had that in mind. The company has upgraded its delivery system, rivaling Amazon’s same-day drop-off fame and ensuring better, faster, and smarter shopping for its customers.
Walmart is well-known as the “everything” store. Whether it’s a last-minute potluck snack, garden shears, a pack of batteries for the new toy your grandkid just got, or even paint to update the living room, Walmart has always been a one-stop shop.
More, Walmart – along with other retailers – has been oversold in the fallout since President Trump’s new tariff plan announcement. It’s down from its highs, but it has established a historical price floor, so it’s reasonable to expect the share price to increase over a shorter period of time.
Walmart is just one of many examples of how An-E can help you spot high-potential opportunities hiding in plain sight. With powerful, time-sensitive forecasts, you can act with more confidence – just like an NFL team that’s done its homework and knows exactly how to draft.
And in investing, success comes down to picking winners and avoiding costly mistakes.
With An-E, you can get data-driven stock forecasts to help you make smarter, more timely decisions. It’s like having your own draft board for the market – so you can build a portfolio of champions.
How to Make An-E Work for You
Last week, we revealed An-E in action in a special event.
During the event, we showed even more of An-E’s remarkable capabilities and how everyday folks can use these projections to target winners and avoid losers to make huge money in the markets, completely rewriting their financial future.
It was an incredible presentation, one of the biggest in TradeSmith history…
In fact, it was so remarkable, we believe this way of investing (using forecasts from AI rather than brokers, financial analysts, Wall Street, or the media), will change the entire financial industry for the better.
