Archives March 2025

Updated on March 27th, 2025 by Bob Ciura

In the world of investing, volatility matters. Investors are reminded of this every time there is a downturn in the broader market and individual stocks that are more volatile than others experience enormous swings in price.

Volatility is a proxy for risk; more volatility generally means a riskier portfolio. The volatility of a security or portfolio against a benchmark is called Beta.

In short, Beta is measured via a formula that calculates the price risk of a security or portfolio against a benchmark, which is typically the broader market as measured by the S&P 500.

Here’s how to read stock betas:

• A beta of 1.0 means the stock moves equally with the S&P 500
• A beta of 2.0 means the stock moves twice as much as the S&P 500
• A beta of 0.0 means the stocks moves don’t correlate with the S&P 500
• A beta of -1.0 means the stock moves precisely opposite the S&P 500

Interestingly, low beta stocks have historically outperformed the market… But more on that later.

You can download a spreadsheet of the 100 lowest beta S&P stocks (along with important financial metrics like price-to-earnings ratios and dividend yields) below:

 

This article will discuss beta more thoroughly, why low-beta stocks tend to outperform, and provide a discussion of the 5 lowest-beta dividend stocks in the Sure Analysis Research Database.

The table of contents below allows for easy navigation.

Table of Contents

The Evidence for Low Beta Stocks Outperformance

Beta is helpful in understanding the overall price risk level for investors during market downturns in particular. The lower the Beta value, the less volatility the stock or portfolio should exhibit against the benchmark. This is beneficial for investors for obvious reasons, particularly those that are close to or already in retirement, as drawdowns should be relatively limited against the benchmark.

Importantly, low or high Beta simply measures the size of the moves a security makes; it does not mean necessarily that the price of the security stays nearly constant. Indeed, securities can be low Beta and still be caught in long-term downtrends, so this is simply one more tool investors can use when building a portfolio.

The conventional wisdom would suggest that lower Beta stocks should underperform the broader markets during uptrends and outperform during downtrends, offering investors lower prospective returns in exchange for lower risk.

However, history would suggest that simply isn’t the case. Indeed, this paper from Harvard Business School suggests that not only do low Beta stocks not underperform the broader market over time – including all market conditions – they actually outperform.

A long-term study wherein the stocks with the lowest 30% of Beta scores in the US were pitted against stocks with the highest 30% of Beta scores suggested that low Beta stocks outperform by several percentage points annually.

Over time, this sort of outperformance can mean the difference between a comfortable retirement and having to continue working. While low Beta stocks aren’t a panacea, the case for their outperformance over time – and with lower risk – is quite compelling.

How To Calculate Beta

The formula to calculate a security’s Beta is fairly straightforward. The result, expressed as a number, shows the security’s tendency to move with the benchmark.

For example, a Beta value of 1.0 means that the security in question should move in lockstep with the benchmark. A Beta of 2.0 means that moves in the security should be twice as large in magnitude as the benchmark and in the same direction, while a negative Beta means that movements in the security and benchmark tend to move in opposite directions or are negatively correlated.

Related: The S&P 500 Stocks With Negative Beta.

In other words, negatively correlated securities would be expected to rise when the overall market falls, or vice versa. A small value of Beta (something less than 1.0) indicates a stock that moves in the same direction as the benchmark, but with smaller relative changes.

Here’s a look at the formula:

The numerator is the covariance of the asset in question with the market, while the denominator is the variance of the market. These complicated-sounding variables aren’t actually that difficult to compute – especially in Excel.

Additionally, Beta can also be calculated as the correlation coefficient of the security in question and the market, multiplied by the security’s standard deviation divided by the market’s standard deviation.

Finally, there’s a greatly simplified way to calculate Beta by manipulating the capital asset pricing model formula (more on Beta and the capital asset pricing model later in this article).

Here’s an example of the data you’ll need to calculate Beta:

• Risk-free rate (typically Treasuries at least two years out)
• Your asset’s rate of return over some period (typically one year to five years)
• Your benchmark’s rate of return over the same period as the asset

To show how to use these variables to do the calculation of Beta, we’ll assume a risk-free rate of 2%, our stock’s rate of return of 7% and the benchmark’s rate of return of 8%.

You start by subtracting the risk-free rate of return from both the security in question and the benchmark. In this case, our asset’s rate of return net of the risk-free rate would be 5% (7% – 2%). The same calculation for the benchmark would yield 6% (8% – 2%).

These two numbers – 5% and 6%, respectively – are the numerator and denominator for the Beta formula. Five divided by six yields a value of 0.83, and that is the Beta for this hypothetical security. On average, we’d expect an asset with this Beta value to be 83% as volatile as the benchmark.

Thinking about it another way, this asset should be about 17% less volatile than the benchmark while still having its expected returns correlated in the same direction.

Beta & The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)

The Capital Asset Pricing Model, or CAPM, is a common investing formula that utilizes the Beta calculation to account for the time value of money as well as the risk-adjusted returns expected for a particular asset.

Beta is an essential component of the CAPM because without it, riskier securities would appear more favorable to prospective investors. Their risk wouldn’t be accounted for in the calculation.

The CAPM formula is as follows:

The variables are defined as:

• ERi = Expected return of investment
• Rf = Risk-free rate
• βi = Beta of the investment
• ERm = Expected return of market

The risk-free rate is the same as in the Beta formula, while the Beta that you’ve already calculated is simply placed into the CAPM formula. The expected return of the market (or benchmark) is placed into the parentheses with the market risk premium, which is also from the Beta formula. This is the expected benchmark’s return minus the risk-free rate.

To continue our example, here is how the CAPM actually works:

ER = 2% + 0.83(8% – 2%)

In this case, our security has an expected return of 6.98% against an expected benchmark return of 8%. That may be okay depending upon the investor’s goals as the security in question should experience less volatility than the market thanks to its Beta of less than 1. While the CAPM certainly isn’t perfect, it is relatively easy to calculate and gives investors a means of comparison between two investment alternatives.

Now, we’ll take a look at five stocks that not only offer investors low Beta scores, but attractive prospective returns as well.

Analysis On The Top 5 Low Beta Stocks

The following 5 low beta stocks have the lowest (but positive) Beta values, in ascending order from lowest to highest. They also pay dividends to shareholders. We focused on Betas above 0, as we are still looking for stocks that are positively correlated with the broader market:

5. Consolidated Edison (ED)

Consolidated Edison is a large-cap utility stock. The company generates nearly $15 billion in annual revenue and has a market capitalization of approximately $36 billion.

The company serves 3.7 million electric customers, and another 1.1 million gas customers, in New York.

Source: Investor Presentation

It operates electric, gas, and steam transmission businesses, with a steam system that is the largest in the U.S.

On February 20th, 2025, Consolidated Edison announced fourth quarter and full year results for the period ending December 31st, 2024. For the quarter, revenue grew 6.5% to $3.7 billion, which beat estimates by $36 million.

Adjusted earnings of $340 million, or $0.98 per share, compared to adjusted earnings of $346 million, or $1.00 per share, in the previous year. Adjusted earnings-per-share were $0.02 ahead of expectations.

For the year, revenue increased 4.0% to $15.3 billion while adjusted earnings of $1.87 billion, or $5.40 per share, compared to adjusted earnings of $1.76 billion, or $5.07 per share, in 2023.

Average rate base balances are now projected to grow by 8.2% annually through 2029 based off 2025 levels. This is up from the company’s prior forecast of 6.4%.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on Consolidated Edison (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

4. The Hershey Company (HSY)

The Hershey Company, founded in 1894, is a chocolate and sugar confectionary products manufacturer that sells major brands such as Hershey’s, Reese’s, Kisses, Cadbury, Ice Breakers, Kit Kat, Almond Joy, Jolly Rancher, Twizzlers, Heath, and Milk Duds. Hershey primarily operates in North America but has international operations as well.

On February 6th, 2025, Hershey reported financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024. The North America Confectionary segment (81% of sales) grew its sales 6% over the prior year’s quarter.

Earnings-per-share grew 33%, from $2.02 to $2.69, beating the analysts’ consensus by $0.31, primarily thanks to an effective hedging strategy, which offset the effect of exceptionally high cocoa prices.

Hershey’s earnings-per-share growth stems from several factors. The first one is organic revenue growth, which Hershey has managed to achieve despite the public becoming more conscious about healthy eating habits. The company has also been able to improve its margins throughout the last decade.

Hershey owns well-recognized brands, so price hikes have not been a headwind to increasing the volume of its products. Hershey had also been moderately repurchasing its shares, which has added some additional growth to the company’s earnings-per-share.

HSY has a Beta score of 0.28.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on HSY (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

3. Northrop Grumman (NOC)

Northrop Grumman Corporation is one of the five largest US aerospace and defense contractors based on revenue.

The company reports four business segments: Aeronautics Systems (aircraft and UAVs), Mission Systems (radars, sensors and systems for surveillance and targeting), Defense Systems (sustainment and modernization, directed energy, tactical weapons), and Space Systems (missile defense, space systems, hypersonics and space launchers).

Northrop Grumman makes the B-2 Spirit, E-2D, E-8C, RQ-4 Global Hawk, MQ-4C Triton, MQ-8B/C Fire Scout, B-21. The company also provides content on the F-35 and F/A-18. It won the contract for the GPI. The company had revenue of over $41.0B in 2024.

Northrop Grumman reported results for Q4 FY 2024 on January 30th, 2025. Companywide revenue was flat and diluted earnings per share rose to $8.66 from a loss of $3.54 on a year-over-year basis. Revenue for Aeronautics Systems rose 11% due to higher volumes in B-21, F-35 programs, and restricted programs.

The total backlog is a record ~$91.5B at the end of the quarter of which $39.7B is funded. The firm won $17.3B in contract awards in the quarter including large ones for restricted programs, TACAMO, F-35, and the Next-Gen OPIR. The company guided for $42.0B to $42.5B in sales and $27.85 to $28.25 earnings per share in 2025.

NOC has a Beta score of 0.21.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on NOC (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

2. Campbell Soup (CPB)

Campbell Soup Company is a multinational food company headquartered in Camden, N.J. The company manufactures and markets branded convenience food products, such as soups, simple meals, beverages, snacks, and packaged fresh foods.

The company’s portfolio focuses on two specific businesses: Campbell Snacks, and Campbell Meals and Beverages. Campbell generated annual sales of $9.6 billion in fiscal 2024.

On March 12, 2024, Campbell closed on its acquisition of Sovos Brands (SOVO) for $23 per share in cash, which represented a total enterprise value of $2.7 billion, and was funded by issuing new debt. Sovos is a leader in high growth premium Italian sauces, and owns the market-leading Rao’s brand.

Campbell Soup reported second quarter FY 2025 results on March 5th, 2025. Net sales for the quarter improved by 9% year-over-year to $2.7 billion. This increase was mostly a result of the Sovos Brands acquisition. Adjusted EPS was 8% lower year-over-year at $0.74 for the quarter, which beat expectations by two cents.

The company repurchased $56 million worth of shares in H1. There remains $301 million remaining under the current $500 million share repurchase program, which is in addition to the existing $205 million remaining on its anti-dilutive share repurchase program.

Leadership updated its full-year fiscal 2025 guidance. Management now estimates that in fiscal 2025, Campbell’s adjusted earnings per share will be down 1% to 4%.

CPB has a Beta score of 0.19.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on CPB (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

1. General Mills (GIS)

General Mills is a packaged food giant, with more than 100 brands and operations in more than 100 countries. It has returned to growth in the last five years, mostly thanks to the acquisition of Blue Buffalo and the pandemic, which greatly increased food consumption at home.

In mid-March, General Mills reported (3/19/25) results for Q3-2025. Net sales and organic sales fell -5% each over the prior year’s quarter, primarily due to retailer inventory reductions. It was the second-worst decline in the last five years.

Gross margin expanded from 33.5% to 33.9%, as cost savings offset input inflation. Adjusted earnings-per-share decreased -15%, from $1.18 to $1.00, but exceeded the analysts’ consensus by $0.04.

General Mills has grown its earnings-per-share at a 5.2% average annual rate in the last decade. We expect approximately 5.0% annual earnings-per-share growth over the next five years, mostly thanks to Blue Buffalo.

Earnings-per-share will also benefit from a decent amount of share repurchases, as the proceeds from the sale of North American yogurt business will be allocated on share repurchases.

GIS has a Beta score of 0.15.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on GIS (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Final Thoughts

Investors must take risk into account when selecting from prospective investments. After all, if two securities are otherwise similar in terms of expected returns but one offers a much lower Beta, the investor would do well to select the low Beta security as they may offer better risk-adjusted returns.

Using Beta can help investors determine which securities will produce more volatility than the broader market and which ones may help diversify a portfolio, such as the ones listed here.

The five stocks we’ve looked at not only offer low Beta scores, but they also offer attractive dividend yields. Sifting through the immense number of stocks available for purchase to investors using criteria like these can help investors find the best stocks to suit their needs.

At Sure Dividend, we often advocate for investing in companies with a high probability of increasing their dividends each and every year.

If that strategy appeals to you, it may be useful to browse through the following databases of dividend growth stocks:

Bill Gates on where AI is going … a “free intelligence” economy … more uncertainty from Trump’s auto tariffs … checking in on the U.S. consumer

How will AI impact your day-to-day life in the near future?

Last month, Microsoft founder Bill Gates was a guest on The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon.

When asked about the future of artificial intelligence, Gates responded:

[Today,] intelligence is rare – you know, a great doctor, a great teacher. With AI, over the next decade, that will become free, commonplace. Great medical advice, great tutoring.

And it’s kind of profound because it solves all these specific problems… But it brings with it so much change.

What will jobs be like? Should we just work, like, two or three days a week?

I think it’s a little bit unknown. Will we be able to shape it?

And so, legitimately, people are like, “wow, this is a bit scary.”

Fallon responded, “Will we still need humans?

Gates’ response?

Not for most things.

It’s critical that we see the big picture

Our last two Digests have dug into various aspects of the coming age of AI in the run-up to this morning’s roundtable discussion with experts Louis Navellier, Eric Fry, and Luke Lango.

During this fantastic, eye-opening conversation, our experts detailed how AI is exploding the “Technochasm.” This is Eric’s term to describe the stark – and expanding – wealth gap in the United States that has been driven by technology.

They also named a handful of stocks they believe will benefit from this massive, AI-related wealth shift (You can catch a free replay right here).

Returning to Bill Gates, to flesh out his “humans won’t be necessary” point, here’s Harvard Magazine, reporting on another interview Gates conducted recently at his alma mater:

Unlike the first PCs, which merely amplified human capabilities, AI has the potential to replace them.

Gates pointed out the existential shift: “Intelligence will be completely free.”

What does that mean?

Computing was once about making existing tasks more efficient, he explained, but AI could fundamentally redefine what tasks humans delegate to people or to machines.

Now, if humans won’t be necessary “for most things,” and intelligence will be “completely free,” then what will be our source of economic value?

In other words, how will Americans earn a paycheck?

Is an AI utopian future achievable?

Some readers may already be pushing back:

Jeff, you’re missing the point. Personal economic value won’t be necessary. AI will create, do, and achieve everything for us, so no paychecks will be needed.

Even if that’s true, let’s not overlook something…

That utopian scenario exists on the other side of an incredibly messy transition period.

Think about that chaotic “in between” where a tiny fraction of people controls AI, reaping enormous financial rewards at the expense of the majority that AI has rendered economically unnecessary.

Even if AI’s eventual outcome is utopian, we could experience enormous social/economic turbulence before we achieve it through government legislation or whatever means it arrives. “Heaven” for those who own AI… “Hell” for everyone else.

If so, then one of the best (and potentially, only) protective steps we can take today is to align our wealth with AI.

After all, if you and I lose our livelihoods to AI as we transition to Gates’ “free intelligence” future, then investing in the technology that will replace us appears to be a critical economic protectant.

This morning, Louis, Eric, and Luke mapped out what they’re doing from an investment perspective, providing a blueprint for how to benefit from the “chaotic in between” rather than be victimized by it. You can check it out right here.

We’ll continue updating you as this Technochasm widens.

“Uncertainty” continues to weigh on the economy and the investment markets

In recent Digests, we’ve highlighted how uncertainty is a massive headwind today.

The question marks relate to many things: President Trump’s tariff plans, inflation’s upcoming direction, the Fed’s interest rate policy, and whether consumer spending can hold up, to name a few.

Trump added to the uncertainty yesterday.

On Wednesday, he said that tariffs would be “very lenient,” even suggesting that tariffs on China could drop to further a deal for TikTok.

But last night, he announced a 25% tariff on all imported cars and car parts.

Here’s The New York Times:

The tariffs will go into effect on April 3 and apply both to finished cars and trucks that are shipped into the United States and to imported parts that are assembled into cars at American auto plants.

Those tariffs will hit foreign brands as well as American ones, like Ford Motor and General Motors, which build some of their vehicles in Canada or Mexico.

Nearly half of all vehicles sold in the United States are imported, as well as nearly 60 percent of the parts in vehicles assembled in the United States. That means the tariffs could push up car prices significantly when inflation has already made cars and trucks more expensive for American consumers.

We’re seeing increasing evidence that “uncertainty” is weighing on economic activity.

For more, let’s go to legendary investor Louis Navellier and his Growth Investor Flash Alert yesterday. Here he is highlighting recent economic data pointing toward an uncertain consumer:

The economic news has not been good this week.

The Conference Board consumer confidence survey dropped for the fourth month in a row, and the drop was huge. It went from 101.1 in February to 92.9 in March. Economists were expecting 94.5, it was a huge disappointment.

The expectations component in the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index is now at its lowest level in 12 years. The present situation component also declined.

So, that means that consumers are not very certain on anything, and so that’s dangerous.

We have to keep an eye on this. If I was on the Federal Reserve Board, I’d cut interest rates right now just based on that report.

Now, it’s not all bad news. Louis points out that Trump’s tariffs are having some desirable effects:

A good example is Vietnam, [which] has the third largest trade deficit with America. 

Based on the fear that Trump’s going to impose tariffs on them, Vietnam has cut its tariffs on vehicles, liquefied natural gas (LNG), ethanol and various agricultural goods. Furthermore, Vietnam has tried to placate the Trump administration by not having any limit on U.S. imports.

So, this is going to be happening with all the countries. They’re all going to be trying to adjust things.

Despite the progress, Louis and I share the same opinion on tariffs: Let’s use them briefly, effectively, and then get back to free trade.

Here’s Louis:

Hopefully, after [President Trump’s] “Liberation Day,” April 2, when the tariffs are put on, all the uncertainty diminishes.

In a perfect world, we would have free and fair trade with no tariffs.

So, let’s get this Liberation Day over with so all the uncertainty disappears. And let’s go onward and upward.

Circling back to the consumer, keep your eyes on a few new developments…

Data on the U.S. consumer is mixed. Let’s ping-pong our way through some recent headlines.

On student loan defaults, here’s the latest from CNBC yesterday:

Around 9.7 million student loan borrowers became past due on their bills after the Covid-era payment pause expired, according to a new estimate by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York…

The New York Fed estimates that the volume of past-due federal student loans hit 15.6%, with more than $250 billion in delinquent debt.

Meanwhile, though our overall unemployment number remains relatively low and stable, there are issues to watch.

Here’s hiring placement service Challenger, Gray, & Christmas from earlier this month:

U.S.-based employers announced 172,017 job cuts in February, the highest total for the month since 2009 when 186,350 job cuts were recorded…

February’s total is a 245% increase from the 49,795 cuts announced one month prior. It is a 103% increase from the 84,638 cuts announced in the same month last year.

Now, much of this is related to DOGE’s federal job cuts. So, while we feel for the federal workers who have lost their jobs, these losses don’t necessarily represent a wider trend in the overall labor market. Plus, there is some good news out of the report…

Though Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell referred to our labor market as “low hire, low fire,” the Challenger, Gray, & Christmas report suggests robust hiring is on the horizon:

Companies’ hiring plans surged in February to 34,580.

So far this year, companies plan to hire 40,669 workers, an increase of 159% from the 15,693 hiring plans announced during the same period last year.

But even for people who have jobs, a recent report from Bank of America Institute finds that nearly half of Americans believe they are living from paycheck to paycheck.

Now, the article explains that the definition of “paycheck to paycheck” is vague. Some Americans might use the term despite putting money into savings accounts (because they see zero disposable dollars left over at the end of the month).

So, let’s ignore those specifics and focus on the broader trend. Here’s USA Today:

In the Bank of America surveys, the share of consumers who said they lived from paycheck to paycheck has gradually risen, from about 35% in early 2022 to 47% in the third quarter of 2024.

Let’s end today by coming full circle to AI and the Technochasm-fueled wealth gap

Regular Digest readers are familiar with our “K”-shaped economy. The “haves” at the top end of the “K” have done very well over the last several years as their assets have risen ride atop inflation.

However, “have nots” at the lower end of the “K” have been stretched financially as inflation has eroded the purchasing power of family budgets.

Here’s Bloomberg with the latest data on this “haves” and “have nots” divide:

The richest half of American families owned about 97.5% of national wealth as of the end of 2024, while the bottom half held 2.5%, according to the latest numbers from the Federal Reserve.

For as lopsided as this is, AI and the Technochasm will only exacerbate it…at least during the “chaotic in between.”

We’ll keep you updated on all these stories here in the Digest.

Have a good evening,

Jeff Remsburg

Written by Steven Dooley, Head of Market Insights, and Shier Lee Lim, Lead FX and Macro Strategist

Aussie unfazed by election news

The Australian dollar inched higher this morning in a muted reaction to the news of an Australian election to be held on 3 May.

Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese followed this week’s federal budget, which featured tax cuts, energy hand-outs and university loan relief, with the rapid announcement of an election in May.

The Aussie was little moved by the announcement with the AUD/USD still trading in the tight range between 0.6200 and 0.6400 that has dominated price action for most of the March quarter.

Global shares weaken further on trade worries

In other markets, the focus remains on US trade policy, with US president Donald Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” of tariff announcement due on 2 April.

US shares were lower with the Dow Jones down 0.4%, S&P 500 down 0.3% and Nasdaq losing 0.5%.

The US dollar was down with European currencies the best performers. The GBP/USD gained 0.5% while EUR/USD gained 0.4%.

Across APAC, the AUD/USD was up 0.1% while NZD/USD climbed 0.2%.

The USD/SGD and USD/CNH both fell from three-week highs.  

USD PCE in focus

Looking forward, the focus is on tonight’s US PCE result.

The February personal consumption and expenditure reading – the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation – is forecast to remain steady at 2.5% in annual terms while the core reading is expected to rise from 2.6% to 2.7%.

The number is key for the Fed’s next move on interest rates – especially after the Fed raised inflation forecasts at last’s week’s policy decision, making US rate cuts less likely. The Fed is increasingly concerned about inflation as seen in the chart below.

US PCE is due at 11.30pm AEDT.

Commodities extend gains, led by gold

Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges  

Key global risk events

Calendar: 24 – 29 March  

All times AEDT

Have a question? [email protected]

*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.

The first unveiling of a new artwork celebrating the creative genius of Augustus Saint-Gaudens will be held during the Professional Numismatists Guild (www.PNGdealers.org) awards dinner on Wednesday, April 23, 2025, at Morton’s Steakhouse in Schaumburg, Illinois.

Attendees will have the exclusive opportunity in a silent auction to acquire the remarkable signed and numbered artwork entitled, “Golden Splendor – The 1907 Saint-Gaudens High Relief Double Eagle.”

“This exquisite creation is the result of an extraordinary collaboration between Robert Julian, a renowned numismatic artist celebrated for his intricate and historically rich coin drawings, and Robert Lamb, an acclaimed artist specializing in large-format acrylic paintings that capture breathtaking detail and emotion,” explained PNG Executive Director John Feigenbaum.

“Together, they have reimagined one of the most iconic coins in American history: the 1907 Saint-Gaudens High Relief Double Eagle, bringing its timeless beauty to life on a grand scale.”

Valued at $1,500 to $3,000, attendees at the dinner will have an opportunity to participate in a silent auction for the first signed and numbered full-size 24 by 32 inches print. It is a limited-edition series of just 25 giclée on canvas pieces that each have an antique Art Nouveau lacquer finish. If interested, collectors can ask their participating PNG dealer to bid on their behalf.

The original artwork will also be on display for guests to admire, showcasing the exceptional detail and artistry behind this unique collaborative creation.

“The PNG publicly recognizes outstanding achievements in the hobby and the profession by honoring deserving recipients with prestigious awards each year. We are excited to include the unveiling of this artwork as part of our event,” said PNG President James Sego.

“The Designer Series is my way of honoring the artistic legacy of some of history’s greatest coins,” said Robert Julian. “Collaborating with Robert Lamb has brought these designs to life in a new and breathtaking way. We couldn’t be more excited to share this first piece with such a distinguished audience.”

During the day on April 23 prior to the awards dinner, the PNG will host a dealers-only PNG Dealer Day show in conjunction with the 86th annual Central States Numismatic Society (www.CSNS.org) convention, April 24-26.

For additional information about the Guild, the 2025 PNG Day and awards dinner and auction, contact Tina Bellanca at PNG headquarters by phone at 951-587-8300 or by email at [email protected].

Published on March 27th, 2025 by Bob Ciura

The S&P 500 Index is off to a challenged start to the year. So far in 2025, the S&P 500 Index has declined 3%.

Many dividend stocks are off to much worse starts year-to-date, which could present value and income investors with some compelling buying opportunities.

To begin the search for quality dividend growth stocks, we recommend the Dividend Champions, a group of stocks that have increased their dividends for at least 25 consecutive years.

You can download your free copy of the Dividend Champions list, along with relevant financial metrics like price-to-earnings ratios, dividend yields, and payout ratios, by clicking on the link below:

 

Investors are likely familiar with the Dividend Aristocrats, a group of 69 stocks in the S&P 500 Index with 25+ consecutive years of dividend increases.

Meanwhile, investors should also familiarize themselves with the Dividend Champions, which have also raised their dividends for at least 25 years in a row.

This article will discuss the 3 worst-performing Dividend Champions so far in 2025, along with their expected returns over the next five years.

Table of Contents

You can instantly jump to any specific section of the article by clicking on the links below:

The 3 Dividend Champions have been ranked by expected total annual return over the next five years, from lowest to highest.

Beaten Down Dividend Champion #3: Matthews International Corp. (MATW)

• Year-to-Date Performance: -15.6%
• 5-year expected returns: 12.2%

Matthews International Corporation provides brand solutions, memorialization products and industrial technologies on a global scale. The company’s three business segments are diversified.

The SGK Brand Solutions provides brand development services, printing equipment, creative design services, and embossing tools to the consumer-packaged goods and packaging industries.

The Memorialization segment sells memorialization products, caskets, and cremation equipment to funeral home industries.

The Industrial technologies segment is smaller than the other two businesses and designs, manufactures and distributes marking, coding and industrial automation technologies and solutions.

Matthews International reported first quarter FY 2025 results on February 6th, 2025. The company reported sales of $402 million, an 11% decline compared to the same prior year period. The decrease was the result of a 28% sales decline in its Industrial Technologies segment.

Adjusted earnings were $0.14 per share, a 62% decrease from $0.37 a year ago. The company’s net debt leverage ratio rose from 3.6 one year ago to 3.9.

Matthews continues to expect $205 million to $215 million of adjusted EBITDA for fiscal 2025.

The dividend payout ratio for Matthews International has been very conservative and only recently eclipsed one third of earnings. This conservative payout ratio allows Matthews to continue raising the dividend as it has for the last 31 years.

The company has a small competitive advantage in that it is uniquely diversified across its businesses, which allows it to weather different storms on a consolidated basis.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on MATW (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Beaten Down Dividend Champion #2: T. Rowe Price Group (TROW)

• Year-to-Date Performance: -16.0%
• 5-year expected returns: 13.6%

T. Rowe Price Group, founded in 1937 and headquartered in Baltimore, MD, is one of the largest publicly traded asset managers.

The company provides a broad array of mutual funds, sub-advisory services, and separate account management for individual and institutional investors, retirement plans and financial intermediaries.

Source: Investor Presentation

Assets under management grow in two basic ways: increased contributions and higher underlying asset values. While asset values are finicky, the trend is upward over the long term.

In addition, T. Rowe has another growth lever in the form of share repurchases. The company has shrunk its share count by an annual rate of 1.3% over the last decade.

On February 5th, 2025, T. Rowe Price announced fourth quarter and full year results for the period December 31st, 2024.

For the quarter, revenue increased 11% to $1.82 billion, though this was $50 million less than expected. Adjusted earnings-per-share of $2.12 compared favorably to $1.72 in the prior year, but missed estimates by $0.08.

For the year, revenue grew 9.8% to $7.1 billion while adjusted earnings-per-share of $9.33 compared to $7.59 in 2023.

During the quarter, AUMs of $1.639 billion were up 19.2% year-over-year and 3.1% sequentially. Market appreciation of $205.3 billion was partially offset by $43.2 billion of net client outflows.

Operating expenses of $1.26 billion increased 0.1% year-over-year and 6.4% quarter-over-quarter.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on TROW (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Beaten Down Dividend Champion #1: Target Corporation (TGT)

• Year-to-Date Performance: -20.9%
• 5-year expected returns: 13.6%

Target was founded in 1902 and now operates about 1,850 big box stores, which offer general merchandise and food, as well as serving as distribution points for the company’s e-commerce business.

Target posted fourth quarter and full-year earnings on March 4th, 2025, and results were better than expected on both the top and bottom lines, albeit on reduced estimates. Adjusted earnings-per-share came to $2.41, which was 16 cents ahead of estimates.

Revenue was off 3.1% year-over-year to $30.92 billion, but did beat estimates by $90 million. Comparable sales in the fourth quarter rose 1.5% year-over-year due to strong traffic and digital channel performance.

Management noted apparel and hardline categories saw particular strength.

Source: Investor Presentation

For 2025, Target expects around 1% sales growth and a modest increase in operating margins. However, factors like tariff uncertainties and shifting consumer confidence may pressure short-term profits.

The company remains focused on digital expansion, supply chain improvements, and shareholder returns, including dividend increases and stock buybacks, with $8.7 billion still available under its repurchase program.

Digital comparable sales continue to drive the top line, adding 8.7% in Q4. Same-day delivery grew by more than 25% from the year-ago period.

The company repurchased $506 million worth of shares in Q4, and had $8.7 billion left on its authorization as of year end. The company guided for $8.80 to $9.80 in adjusted earnings-per-share for this year.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on TGT (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Table of Contents

The Dividend Champions list is not the only way to quickly screen for stocks that regularly pay rising dividends.

Hello, Reader.

Tom Yeung here with today’s Smart Money.

If you ask the average retail trader how they feel about the market today, you can expect to get a list of four-letter expletives.

Since the start of the year, the percentage of people surveyed by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) who are bearish about the market has surged from 34% to roughly 60%.

The mood has also shifted among average Americans, with around half of survey-takers feeling the economy is getting worse, up from a third in January.

And why wouldn’t they feel awful? Shares of companies like Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) trade 23% below their January highs, while those of Tesla Inc. (TSLA) are 40% underwater.

Every day seems to bring another round of uncertainty over which country will face tariffs next… or which government agency will get the ax.

But the broader stock market paints a different picture.

The S&P 500 index trades just 6% below its all-time high reached in mid-February. Many emerging markets will drop by more in a single day. In fact, over a third of S&P 500 companies have risen over that period.

The reason for this divergence is straightforward:

The selloff in expensive, well-known tech stocks is being offset by a pivot into lesser-known value stocks.

So today, let’s dig into why market uncertainty is reshaping investment strategies, pushing formerly overlooked trades into the spotlight… and how the move toward value investing pays off.

Then, I’ll share an even bigger story playing out in the markets.

It’s causing a big divide among investors… and you don’t want to get caught on the wrong side.

The Revenge of Value

Since the S&P 500 peaked on February 19, prices of cheap companies have held up far better than their expensive counterparts. In fact, this divergence has been noticeable with even the most basic metrics.

Over the past month, prices of the lowest-quintile of S&P 500 companies by current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio have lost just 4%. This compares to an 8% loss among the highest S&P 500 companies by P/E ratio.

The split is even starker on a sector-by-sector basis.

Over the same period, shares of biopharmaceutical companies are up 3%, energy companies have risen 4%, and water utilities have jumped 12%. Meanwhile, IT services are down 19%. 

So, the upshot of market uncertainty is that formerly “conservative” trades are becoming hot again.

For instance, shares of recommendation Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY) – a recommendation in my paid service Fry’s Investment Report – are up 7% since February 19 on no particular company news. Analysts have largely kept their 2026 earnings per share estimates constant at $6.16.

The rise of gold is even more noticeable. Since February 19, prices of the safe-haven metal are up 4%. Shares of companies with leveraged exposure, such as miners, have risen even further.

The key change is the way investors are now viewing stable streams of cash. Profit-producing companies like pharma and mining firms are suddenly seen as a safe way to store and make money, rather than as money-sinks that get left behind.

In a sense, this return to unpopular stocks is a return to more “classic” markets like those seen in the 2010s in the aftermath of the financial crisis, or the mid-2000s with the rise of China. Value companies with solid cash flows are performing well, while riskier moonshot assets are not.

It’s a market where the Warren Buffetts of the world will succeed, while the Cathie Woods do poorly.

In a Smart Money at the beginning of the year, Eric predicted that 2025 would see the “Revenge of Value” – where the richly priced “Magnificent Seven” stocks would underperform. In turn, value stocks, precious metals, and drugmakers would surge.

That’s why over the past several months, Eric has recommended his Fry’s Investment Report members and other readers to exit Mag 7 positions and add lower-priced tech alternatives in addition to holding onto gold and other commodity picks.

We’re now seeing these moves pay off.

Though other investors might have plenty of four-letter words to go around, we’re maintaining our focus on one of the most important five-letter words in investing: v-a-l-u-e.

The Coming Tech Divide

And while tariffs, or even a full-blown trade war with several countries, is nothing to be ignored, most people are missing an even bigger story playing out… 

Since 2020, Eric has been tracking a phenomenon he calls the “Technochasm.” This phenomenon refers to the deep divide that technology is creating within the market.

On one side of the gap are the companies (and investors) who leverage rapid technological innovation. On the other: Investors and businesses that get caught off guard and fall behind.

Then, artificial intelligence came along and lit a match under the Technochasm, turning it into an abyss.

But Eric, along with his InvestorPlace colleagues Louis Navellier and Luke Lango, see a big opportunity amid this disruption. One they are capitalizing on in their shared research service AI Revolution Portfolio. (To learn more about this service, click here.)

The last time Eric went public with the Technochasm phenomenon, he helped his readers get in front of winners like 1,350% in only 11 months from mining company Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX).

That is why, this morning, Eric, Louis, and Luke held an important broadcast to explain exactly how this massive capital shift will create the next generation of tech millionaires – and potentially leave millions of others behind.

If you want to learn more about this opportunity – and the six stocks at the center of it – click here to access the free replay.

Regards,

Tom Yeung

Markets Analyst, InvestorPlace

Home Media Expert Perspectives In conversation with Gilbert Cordier, Head of Supply Chain Finance, Societe Generale

As corporates continue to navigate challenges such as increasing inventory, spiking interest rates and general market volatility, they seek financing solutions to help them optimise working capital, enhance liquidity and make their supply chains more robust.

In a frank discussion with Joseph Giarraputo, Founder and Editorial Director of Global Finance, Societe Generale’s Gilbert Cordier, Head of Supply Chain Finance, explains how the bank is focused on finding new and effective ways to help corporate clients optimise liquidity against an uncertain macro backdrop.

With corporates looking for efficient implementation of supply chain finance, for faster and more seamless processes, and for integrated solutions with enterprise resource planning, Societe Generale – named as the world’s best supply chain finance bank by Global Finance – has a range of solutions to help clients achieve these goals. These even include partnerships with well-established fintechs in a bid to raise the supply chain financing bar via agility and innovation.

Such initiatives reflect the scope of the bank’s supply chain finance capabilities, to bring a broader and diverse offering as a win-win, and in real time.

Watch this video to learn more about Societe Generale’s DNA: to challenge the status quo and be nimble in improving its financing solutions to meet the evolving needs and expectations of a growing number of corporates.

Shares of U.S. and international automakers tumbled on Thursday after President Trump declared a 25% tariff on imported vehicles and, eventually, auto parts. 

Economists and analysts expect the tariffs to dramatically increase costs for both U.S. manufacturers, whose supply chains snake across North America, and consumers.

JPMorgan analysts had estimated Trump’s proposed tariffs on Canadian and Mexican vehicle imports would cost the industry about $41 billion a year if automakers absorbed all of the costs. After Wednesday’s announcement, which applies tariffs to all countries, they doubled their estimate to $82 billion. If manufacturers pass the entire cost of the tariffs along to consumers, JPMorgan estimates car prices will increase by nearly 12%. 

The tariffs announced on Wednesday, the analysts said, were a slight reprieve for U.S. automakers like Ford (F) and General Motors (GM). If tariffs were confined to just Canada and Mexico, their reliance on factories in those countries would have put them at a disadvantage against international manufacturers. But with tariffs applied globally, domestic companies are in a better position to raise prices without losing market share, the analysts said. 

That said, GM is still the most exposed of the car manufacturers that JPMorgan follows. It sources an estimated 40% of its vehicles from Canada and Mexico, and imports from South Korea. Ford, meanwhile, sources just 7% of its cars from America’s neighbors and has no exposure to South Korea. Analysts estimate GM’s “tariff bill” will eventually total $13 billion, while Ford’s could reach $4.5 billion.

International carmakers are now at a significant disadvantage. Ferrari (RACE), for example, manufactures all of its cars in Italy, but sells about 40% of them in America, which JPMorgan points out is also its higher-margin market. International automakers could mitigate costs by increasing their U.S. manufacturing, as South Korea’s Hyundai announced it would earlier this week.

JPMorgan on Thursday lowered its price targets on GM, Ford, and Ferrari stocks by 17%, 15%, and 12%, respectively.

EV Upstarts Are Least Exposed

Electric vehicle makers Tesla (TSLA), Rivian (RIVN), and Lucid (LCID) are among the carmakers least exposed to Trump’s tariffs. All the vehicles they sell in the U.S. are assembled domestically, according to Bank of America Securities analysts. 

Although, like GM and Ford, they do source parts and subcomponents from Canada and Mexico, a fact that Tesla CEO and Trump advisor Elon Musk pointed out on X, the social media platform he owns, on Wednesday. 

“To be clear, this will affect the price of parts in Tesla cars that come from other countries. The cost impact is not trivial,” Musk said in response to a post claiming Tesla “could benefit the most” from Trump’s tariffs.

Impact To Parts Suppliers Is Highly Uncertain

Trump’s executive order states that “certain automobile parts,” defined as “engines, transmissions, powertrain parts, and electrical components,” will be subject to tariffs no later than May 3. However, there remains plenty of ambiguity about what exactly falls into those categories, and how suppliers and manufacturers will distribute the tariff burden. 

JPMorgan analysts say suppliers are better positioned than carmakers but remain exposed. Even if they can negotiate deals that shift their tariff burden to manufacturers, they still will suffer from less demand from consumers who are priced out of the market for new vehicles.

Exactly which suppliers will be hit the hardest is difficult to predict with the details currently available, but JPMorgan analysts believe Aptiv (APTV) is the worst-positioned and Gentex (GNTX) the best. 

Suppliers, the analysts note, could offset their tariff costs by doing the opposite of what Trump wants: moving production to less expensive countries, rather than the U.S. Lear (LEA), for example, already has relocated some production from Mexico to Honduras, and that trend could accelerate under the new tariffs. 

Steelcase (SCS) shares soared Thursday, a day after the furniture supplier’s results exceeded forecasts and it gave strong guidance as orders increased.

The maker of ergonomic office chairs and storage systems reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.26 on revenue that rose about 2% year-over-year to $788.0 million. Analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha were looking for $0.22 and $785.5 million, respectively.

Orders grew 9%, boosted by a 12% jump in the Americas market. Sales in the Americas were up nearly 5% to $608.1 million, although they fell 7% to $179.9 million internationally. 

CEO Says Well-Positioned as Organizations Require Employees Return to Office

CEO Sara Armbruster called the growth in orders in the Americas “broad-based, driven by most of our customer segments, with especially strong growth from our large corporate and government customers.” Armbruster added that the company will benefit from more organizations requiring employees to return to the office as they drop their work-from-home options.

Steelcase sees current-quarter adjusted EPS in the range of $0.13 to $0.17, while the Visible Alpha outlook was for $0.14. 

Despite today’s 5% advance, shares of Steelcase remain about 15% lower over the past year.

Written by the Market Insights Team

Equities down on tariff additions

Boris Kovacevic – Global Macro Strategist

On Wednesday, the US dollar edged higher as investors braced for President Trump’s looming tariffs on auto imports, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals. The dollar index ticked up to 104.50, reflecting cautious sentiment ahead of the widely anticipated April 2 announcement. As investors await the deadline, Trump announced plans to impose a 25% flat tariff on all cars being imported from abroad.  Equity markets naturally took a hit.

Stocks ended sharply lower, with tech leading the decline—Tesla and Nvidia both plunged over 5.5%, dragging the Nasdaq down 2%. The S&P 500 and Dow followed suit, snapping a three-day rally as uncertainty over the scope and impact of tariffs fueled risk-off sentiment. Bond markets told a similar story, with Treasury yields falling as investors sought safety amid escalating trade tensions.

Meanwhile, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari acknowledged the economic uncertainty tariffs bring—on one hand, they could push inflation higher, justifying rate hikes; on the other, they could slow growth, making the case for cuts. His takeaway? The Fed is in no rush to move. Overall, markets remain on edge as trade policy takes center stage once again.

With major tariff announcements on deck, investors are weighing the risks of supply chain disruptions, corporate earnings pressure, and potential retaliatory measures. The next few days will be key in determining whether this latest round of trade tensions is a temporary headwind or something more lasting.

Euro down 7th day in a row

Boris Kovacevic – Global Macro Strategist

The euro extended its losing streak on Wednesday, with EUR/USD falling for the seventh consecutive session to $1.0740—down from its late March peak of $1.0950. The sharp decline came as President Trump officially signed a 25% tariff on auto imports, escalating trade tensions and fueling concerns about the Eurozone’s export-heavy economy.

With Germany’s auto sector at the heart of the European economy, the tariffs are a direct blow to one of the bloc’s key industries. Automakers and suppliers are bracing for supply chain disruptions, while policymakers in Brussels weigh potential retaliation. The timing is particularly tough for the Eurozone, where growth has been fragile, and inflation is finally showing signs of cooling—supporting the case for ECB rate cuts later this year.

For now, traders remain cautious, with the euro under pressure as markets digest the potential fallout from Trump’s latest trade measures. As investors assess the broader impact, any signs of a dovish shift from the ECB or further escalation in trade tensions could dictate the next leg of the euro’s move.

Markets shrug off Spring Statement

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

There wasn’t much to cheer about in the UK Chancellor’s Spring Statement yesterday. But one positive takeaway was that the pound and gilts came away relatively unscathed – bruised but not battered. GBP/USD slipped under $1.29, but GBP/EUR held firm in the middle of €1.19-€1.20.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves outlined significant fiscal measures amidst downgraded growth forecasts. The Office for Budget Responsibility halved the UK growth forecast for 2025 from 2% to 1%, prompting the government to announce £15 billion in spending cuts, including welfare reforms and reductions to departmental spending. The statement emphasized defense spending increases and housing initiatives, but concerns over economic growth and fiscal headroom remain.

Ahead of the fiscal update, sterling had already come under some selling pressure as UK inflation unexpectedly slowed to 2.8% in February from a year earlier. This saw bets of Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts rise and yields fall, dragging sterling lower across the board. Yields briefly popped higher when Reeve’s announced that day-to-day spending will rise 1.2% in real terms, but declined again after the government’s planned gilt sales this year was less than expected. The Debt Management Office slashed the share of long-dated bond sales to 13.4% from an estimated 17.2%. Gilts ended the day relatively flat, and the pound less than 0.5% down against most peers.

Ultimately, the fiscal backdrop is fragile, and the economy is frail, and while Reeves has rebuilt some fiscal headroom in her budget and GDP growth beyond 2025 has been revised higher, the economy will need to perform well for those projections to hold steady.  Despite all the doom and gloom, it must be said that investors aren’t shunning the pound. Year-to-date, sterling has appreciated against 65% of 50 global currencies we’re tracking and remains over 2.5% up on the USD this month alone.

Dollar finds some bid

Table: 7-day currency trends and trading ranges

Key global risk events

Calendar: March 24-28

All times are in GMT

Have a question? [email protected]

*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.