8 Charts Every Investor Needs to See When Markets Crash


Editor’s Note: The markets are in a tailspin due to the ongoing tariff chaos. That’s why, yesterday, I shared the first part of InvestorPlace CEO Brian Hunt’s essay about what you should do whenever the market goes down.

I consider this essay essential reading, folks. So, if you missed it, you can check out the first part here.

Now, in part two, Brian details how there have been 26 bear markets in the S&P 500 since 1928. During this period, there were wars, a Great Depression, a global pandemic… you name it. And yet, every single time, stocks went on to reach all-time highs.

I hope you’ve enjoyed hearing from our company’s leadership during this chaotic period. We remain steadfast in our belief in the U.S. and its markets to create incredible long-term wealth for those who remain both patient and opportunistic.

I’ll turn it over to Brian for more.



Source link

What to Do When the Stock Market Drops


When the stock market goes through a big drop, it can be difficult to know what to do.

Editor’s Note: On Wednesday afternoon, President Trump imposed a 10% minimum tariff on all U.S. trading partners. For some, it was as high as 46%. Wall Street did not react well to the news. The S&P 500 dropped 4.8%, the Dow declined 4%, and the NASDAQ plunged 6% in Thursday’s trading.

This morning, we woke up to news that China had announced retaliatory tariffs of 34% on all goods from the U.S., sending stocks lower once again.

As the chaos continues, this is a good reminder that markets can behave like manic crowds. When someone yells “fire!” everyone rushes to the exit. So, today I’m running Part 1 of an essay from InvestorPlace CEO Brian Hunt with some relevant advice about what you should do and, more importantly, what you should not do during market selloffs. Stay tuned for Part 2 tomorrow, and I’ll be back in touch with you next week.

************



Source link

The Interesting Silver Lining Behind This Painful Tariff Chaos


“Liberation Day” was a mess… The new levies that U.S. President Trump announced were far more aggressive than anyone had expected. A 10% minimum universal tariff and country-specific tariffs north of 50%? It was a full-scale shock to the global trading system.

Investors have been panicking ever since, selling hand over fist in an attempt to mitigate risk. As a result, the Dow Jones slid over 3%. The Nasdaq Composite took a 4%-plus  nosedive. And the S&P 500 sank more than 4% as well, now on track for its worst week since 2020’s COVID crash.

Not to mention, China declared that it would impose additional 34% tariffs on the U.S. to match those that Trump announced yesterday. This move is stoking fears that our nation’s trading partners will retaliate instead of negotiate, exacerbating the ongoing trade war.

And yet, buried underneath all the chaos… there’s a silver lining forming: one that could reshape the economy in a very big and very bullish way

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield’s collapse.

It’s not just a footnote in this story. It might actually be the main event.

Let’s start with the numbers.

Tariff Fears Are Pushing the 10-Year Lower

Earlier this year, the 10-year Treasury yield was pushing 4.8%, a level that was putting real pressure on the economy. That’s because the 10-year largely influences mortgage rates, business borrowing, consumer lending, and more. 

But since the trade war rhetoric escalated in March – and especially after the “Liberation Day” announcement – that yield has collapsed.

Indeed, just before Trump’s tariff announcement, the 10-year was hovering around 4.25%. By that evening, it dropped to 4.07%. And as of this writing, we’re sitting at about 3.93%.

That’s an 80-plus-basis-point drop from recent highs. In bond market terms, that’s not a gentle breeze; that’s a hurricane-force tailwind for the economy.

And I’d venture to say that this is no accident. It’s policy by design. 

That is, in recent weeks, both President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have made it clear that their economic focus isn’t on the stock market – it’s on the bond market – and specifically, the 10-year yield.

As Bessent said in a recent interview, “We’re watching the 10-year, not the Dow.” 

Translation: This administration’s goal isn’t to juice the S&P 500 with feel-good headlines. Seemingly, it’s to strategically depress long-term interest rates, which influence everything from mortgages to auto loans to small business credit lines.

The Long-Term Gains

From what we can tell, the Trump Administration is trying to stimulate Main Street. And they’re using bond market psychology to do it, with a particular focus on the 10-year yield.

That makes sense because it is hard to overstate how influential the 10-year is for our financial ecosystem. It’s the anchor rate for an entire constellation of borrowing avenues: mortgages, corporate bonds, auto and student loans, municipal bonds, personal and small business loans…

When the 10-year drops, everything else drops with it.

And with yields down more than 80 basis points in the past couple of months, we’re already starting to see borrowing costs decline across the board. For example, mortgage rates are dipping back toward 6.5% after threatening 8% just a few months ago.

That’s huge. Lower borrowing costs means that more buyers can afford more houses. Businesses can refinance at lower costs. Consumers have more flexibility with credit. Municipalities can invest in infrastructure more affordably.

In short? Lower rates mean more activity. More activity means more jobs, more spending, and – eventually – more growth.



Source link

What to Make of the Tariff Market Meltdown


Louis’ reaction to Liberation Day … mixed signals on the inflation front … what’s the risk of stagflation? … a way to trade earnings season as the markets remain volatile

In the wake of President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff reveal yesterday, the investment markets are in freefall.

Yesterday afternoon, the President unveiled a sweeping tariff plan that was far greater in scope than markets expected.

While Trump finally brought the clarity the market wanted, the “clear image” that investors now see is a potential tariff war that risks stunting economic growth and corporate profits.

As I write, we’re seeing panic selling across the board.

From stocks… to gold… to crypto… to commodities… to the U.S. dollar… everything is falling – except bonds.

Investors are fleeing to the safety of the 10-year Treasury, causing its yield to plummet. As I write, the yield has fallen 17 basis points, putting the 10-year at 4.02%, its lowest level since October.

Please resist the temptation to join in the panic

Market sell-offs are a natural part of investing, and volatility is something every investor must endure.

Long-term success comes from discipline and patience. Great opportunities arise in downturns, and those who stay the course will ultimately build lasting wealth.

Remember, just a few months ago, the market was at an all-time high. It will be again, eventually.

Now, that doesn’t mean you might not want to adjust your portfolio based on yesterday’s news. But even if so, we urge you to do so based on cool-headed logic, not hot-tempered emotion.

To help you with this, our Editor-in-Chief and fellow Digest writer, Luis Hernandez, sat down with legendary investor Louis Navellier this morning.

They discussed the market turmoil, what happens next for the U.S. and international manufacturing sectors, how today’s market reaction is irrational, and why Louis remains bullish on his stocks.

To watch, just click here.

As Luis highlights in the video, for the exact stocks that Louis is buying in this market selloff in his Accelerated Profits newsletter, click here.

If you’re less familiar, in Accelerated Profits, Louis zeroes in on high-growth stocks poised for rapid price appreciation. He uses his proprietary stock-rating system to focus on top-tier stocks exhibiting exceptional fundamentals and strong momentum.

In a volatile market, you want to be in the strongest fundamental stocks – exactly what Louis does in Accelerated Profits.

Shifting gears, we’re getting mixed signals on the inflation front

By some measures, inflation is cooling rapidly. I’m even seeing the dreaded “D” word (deflation).

For example, as you can see below, Truflation, an independent inflation index, reports a U.S. inflation rate of just 1.39%. And notice its downward directional trend since late-December.

Chart showing Truflation, an independent inflation index, reporting a U.S. inflation rate of just 1.39%. And notice its downward directional trend since late-December.

Source: Truflation

Louis is already pointing toward deflation in the global economy:

While the foreign financial media has promoted the narrative that tariffs are inflationary, deflation has already emerged.

In fact, China has reported widespread deflation in virtually all categories.

Consumer prices fell into negative territory in February and wholesale prices have been stuck in negative territory for more than two years.

I should also add that the U.S.’s trade deficit has soared as goods were “dumped” in the U.S. to try to beat the impending tariffs. These excess goods are not expected to be discounted, and that could further spread the deflationary forces that have recently emerged.

So, the world economy is at risk of slipping into a deflationary spiral.

On the other hand, recent data from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index show pressure on prices remaining firm.

The latest core CPI inflation data (which strips out volatile food and energy prices) found that prices climbed at a 3.1% pace year-over-year. Similarly, the most recent core PCE figure climbed 2.8% year-over-year, up from the prior reading of 2.6%.

Which direction will inflation break? Up or down?

Let’s factor in the new tariffs from President Trump

These new levies are expected to increase company production costs, which they will likely pass on to consumers.

Translation – higher prices.

Last week, the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond published a report titled “How Might Fifth District Firms React to Changing Tariff Policies?”

From that report:

To the extent that firms are not able to find non-tariffed suppliers, results from our February surveys suggest that firms would pass unexpected cost increases on by increasing the prices they charge customers.

Nearly three-quarters of respondents reported that they would increase prices if faced with an unexpected cost increase, and nearly 60 percent would pass through the full amount or more.

The extent of price pass through will likely depend on the magnitude of cost increases from tariff policy.

And what if consumers rebel and don’t want to pay those prices?

Normally, lower demand would result in lower prices, but that’s not necessarily true when tariffs are in play.

That could leave us in an environment characterized by high prices and low growth – also known as stagflation.

On a call earlier this week, our Editor-in-Chief, Luis, made a prediction…

Get ready to hear a lot about stagflation.

I think Luis’ call is spot-on.

In fact, it’s already happening…

Last month, a Bank of America survey of global fund managers found that 71% of managers expect global stagflation within the next 12 months.

Meanwhile, earlier this week, Citibank echoed this sentiment in a note to clients:

Looking out, large tariffs would move us closer to the stagflationary risks we have downplayed this past year.

This transition happens through a tightening of financial conditions which means fixed-income returns also turn negative.

The note modeled a base case of 10% tariffs, which they predicted could push the economy into stagflation in roughly six months. And with 20% tariffs, Citi predicted we’ll see an added “growth shock.”

Well, yesterday’s tariff details revealed far larger tariffs than 20% for many trading partners, so “growth shock” could be in the cards.

B of A and Citi aren’t the only Big Banks that have raised their stagflation predictions. We’ve seen similar calls from Goldman, Stifel, and UBS.

Behind these predictions are weakening economic data alongside rising prices. On that note, here’s Reuters on Tuesday:

An Institute for Supply Management index of manufacturing activity fell, but its measure of prices paid by companies rose.

“The manufacturing sector is showing the first signs that stagflation may be coming for the broader economy,” wrote Inflation Insights President Omair Sharif, noting the price measure in the survey rose at the fastest pace since mid-2022.

Considering this risk, many concerned investors are grappling with a question…

But what about AI, growing earnings from tech, and the timeworn investment truism that “time in the market” is more important than “timing the market”?

We’re suddenly facing a difficult fork in the road…

Do we stay in the market, giving the benefit of the doubt to the bulls, hoping Trump tariff negotiations (and lower tariffs) are close at hand?

If we choose this, we risk serious losses if a worst-case scenario plays out. As we covered earlier this week, Goldman Sachs pegs a worst-case tariff-related market drawdown at 50%.

Or…

Do we sell down our big winners, swallow the capital gains tax hit, and rotate into safer investments, voting to emphasize “defense,” protecting the gains we’ve generated?

If we choose this, we risk the tariff drama resolving in the coming weeks, and the market screaming higher. The potential missed gains could materially impact the timing of achieving our retirement timing and/or financial goals. Plus, that FOMO could be brutal.

Not an easy choice.

Given this challenge, one solution is adopting a “trading” mindset today.

In other words, rather than adding to your buy-and-hold portfolio as questions swirl, put your money into attractive short-term trading opportunities.

This reduces your overall market exposure if you’re wrong, while giving you exposure to market gains if you’re right.

Let’s profile one way to do this…

We’re less than two weeks away from Q1 kickoff when the Big Banks report

This has traders gearing up.

In the long-term, earnings drive stock prices. But in the short-term, surprises to expectations are what move the needle. And few things deliver more consistent investment surprises than earnings seasons.

Is there a way to get a bead on surprises ahead of earnings and benefit from them?

The answer leads us to Andy and Landon Swan, the analysts behind our corporate partner, LikeFolio.

Each Sunday during earnings season, Andy and Landon publish a comprehensive list of all the companies they track that are reporting earnings in the week ahead.

Each company is assigned an Earnings Score from -100 (bearish) to +100 (bullish), with scores near zero being neutral. They also put out a recommended trade that they hand-select from a variety of strategies that offer super short “risk windows” of just five days.

Here’s Landon with the goal:

Get in on Monday, get out by Friday, collect your cash, and enjoy that weekend.

This is especially attractive considering today’s stagflation and tariff concerns.

***But anyone can issue trade recommendations during earnings season, why is this different?

Consumer data.

Back to Landon:

Often, we know in advance what companies are going to say [in their earnings calls and with their earnings reports].

How?

Because we’re listening to their customers on social media and watching their web traffic patterns.

Are they buying more?

Do they love the product?

Are they going to the website more?

Are they searching for alternatives?

LikeFolio’s Data Engine captures and analyzes millions of data points from across the web every single day to spot shifts and trends in consumer spending behavior on Main Street before they become news on Wall Street.

All these data points give Andy and Landon critical intel on publicly traded companies straight from the source that matters most – the consumer, whose spending powers nearly 70% of what happens in our economy.

If we go by their trade results, the approach is working

Andy and Landon offer a variety of trades that fall at different points along the risk/reward spectrum. Some more aggressive trades have higher “average gains” but with lower “win rates,” while other more conservative trades produce lower “average gains” but higher “win rates.”

Across all their trading styles, the average return is 16.9%. And remember, that’s targeting a one-week hold period.

To learn more about how Andy and Landon trade earnings season, click here to learn more. They’ll show you what they call “the single most powerful trend that will drive earnings surprises this quarter” and give you their top-ranked opportunity – ticker symbol and all.

Now, this isn’t the only way to generate quicker returns in the market. Tomorrow, we’ll profile another strategy from Louis.

Most important, please maintain perspective on today’s selloff

Market downturns are inevitable, but they don’t define your success – your response does.

Emotional decisions often lead to costly mistakes, while patience and discipline pave the way for long-term gains.

Stay focused, trust your strategy, and remember that wealth is built over time.

Have a good evening,

Jeff Remsburg



Source link

Why the Tariff Blast May Be Worse Than the Fallout


“Liberation Day” turned out to be an aggressive, multi-layered tariff assault

Well… “Liberation Day” finally arrived, and let’s not sugarcoat it: the tariff announcement was far worse than anyone expected. It wasn’t a punch. It was a crippling blow from a political sledgehammer.

What Wall Street hoped would be a calibrated and strategic trade move turned out to be an aggressive, multi-layered tariff assault. And it has broad, punitive implications for nearly every major U.S. trading partner.

The market expected a 10% to 20% universal tariff – bad but manageable. Instead, President Trump announced a 10% minimum universal tariff across nearly all imports, plus a long list of country-specific tariffs that are, frankly, jaw-dropping.

The numbers are brutal:

  • China: 54% tariff
  • Vietnam: 46% tariff
  • European Union: 20% tariff
  • Mexico: 18%
  • Canada: 16%
  • Japan: 17%
  • South Korea: 19%
  • India: 21%
  • (Yes, really. And the list goes on…)

Evercore ISI estimates that this new tariff structure raises the average U.S. tariff rate to 29%. Deutsche Bank and Bloomberg Economics chimed in with similar estimates, all suggesting a move from just 2.5% in 2024 to somewhere between 22% and 30%.

To put that in perspective: this would be the highest average tariff rate in modern American history, exceeding even Smoot-Hawley levels from the 1930s. That tariff act raised the average tariff on dutiable imports to 47% from 40%. (And for what it’s worth, as The Hill noted, “economists think the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act actually ‘provoked a wave of foreign retaliation that plunged the world deeper into the Great Depression.’”)

Today’s Trump-era move is not just symbolic. It has real teeth.

A Potential Turning Point

The Federal Reserve’s own research suggests that every one-point increase in the average U.S. tariff rate subtracts 0.14 percentage points from GDP. Do the math on a 20- to 30-point increase, and we’re looking at a 2.8% to 4.2% hit to GDP.

Now layer that on top of what we already know.

The Atlanta Fed’s real-time tracker has first-quarter GDP growth at -3.7%. If these new tariffs take full effect and economic activity takes another 3% to 4% hit, we could see GDP fall as much as 7% to 8% this year.

That’s not just “technical recession” territory. That’s crisis territory, on par with the 2008 financial crisis or the COVID lockdown crash.

Wall Street didn’t take this well – and rightfully so. S&P 500 futures plunged as much as 3%. Nasdaq futures dropped 4%, while Russell 2000 futures collapsed 5%.

It was a sharp and visceral reaction, a market screaming: “This is bad.”

And yes, it is.

But this may also be the turning point, not into a lasting downturn but toward a diplomatic resolution – one that triggers a rally unlike any we’ve seen since 2020.

Trump’s Tariff Announcement: An Opening Move

We get it; being bullish right now might seem like whistling past the graveyard. But there are real reasons to believe that this is not the beginning of a full-blown trade war but rather the high-stakes opening move in a negotiation strategy.

Let’s unpack this.

Immediately after Trump’s tariff announcement, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was back on the mic, repeating what has now become a key talking point:

“These tariffs are a cap—not a floor. Countries can negotiate down from them.”

To us, this confirms what we’ve suspected all along: these tariffs are leverage, not dogma. They are meant to force other countries to the table, get them to make concessions, and ultimately, allow Trump to declare victory and roll them back.

Bessent’s language was a signal: the White House wants deals. And these tariffs are the stick meant to get them.

Before yesterday’s announcement, there was chatter that tariffs would go into effect immediately. But that’s not what happened.

The 10% universal tariff takes effect on April 5, while the country-specific tariffs take effect on April 9.

That’s a seven-day window – in our view, a deliberate buffer zone designed for one thing: negotiation.



Source link

My Take on the Tariffs – and How You Can Profit


How to adjust to the profound transformation playing out…

Well, it’s official, folks. Liberation Day is here, and we now know the details of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

I just recorded a short video to answer the questions on all our minds:

“How will the tariffs impact the market, and how should I position myself accordingly?”

You can see my answers by clicking here or on the screenshot below. You might be surprised to learn what I have to say.

Here’s what we know…

Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on all imports starting April 5. Other countries that Trump considers “bad actors” will pay a reciprocal tariff.

These higher tariffs will be half of what the White House estimates other countries are charging us, either through outright tariffs, trade barriers, or currency manipulation.

Duties include 24% on Japan and 20% on the European Union, and those are effective April 9. There’s also a new 34% tariff on Chinese goods on top of already announced 20% duties.

Now, this is all fascinating to watch, and the market is clearly up in arms over this right now. But I want to be very clear, folks…

What we are witnessing is a profound transformation of the way we do business. The goals of the tariffs have always been the same: level the playing field on trade, increase tax revenue, and ultimately create a massive wave of onshoring to the United States.

We’re already seeing that play out, as there has been roughly $6 trillion in onshoring already announced – and we could soon approach $10 trillion.

So, once the dust settles and the market realizes the effects of this mega-wave of onshoring, the U.S. economy could be primed to boom.

That’s why I just sat down with Luis Hernandez, Editor-in-Chief of InvestorPlace, to explain what investors can expect from the tariffs – and how they can profit.

Just click here or the screenshot to watch this short video.

Now, the bottom line is I don’t want you to let the tariff headlines throw you off track.

The reality is that once everything is in motion, I expect growth to accelerate drastically, especially as Trump 2.0 clears away more red tape and unleashes the next wave of innovation in the AI Revolution.

You see, these tariff changes are just one part of a massive convergence that’s taking place between Trump’s policies and the AI Revolution.

As this Trump/AI Convergence happens, I expect it to unlock powerful gains for investors.

That’s where my Accelerated Profits service comes in. My Buy List is full of stocks that hold up when the market gets choppy – and sprint ahead when things turn around.

That’s why my Accelerated Profits subscribers had the chance, over the past year or so, for gains such as…

  • 90.25% from Celestica, Inc. (CLS)
  • 95.13% from Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR)
  • 114.49% from Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP)
  • 187.28% from YPF Sociedad Anonomia (YPF)
  • 604% from Vista Oil & Gas (VIST)

In fact, my system has identified the companies best positioned to thrive in this new Trump/AI Convergence – stocks with superior fundamentals and persistent institutional buying pressure.

Click here to learn more now.

Sincerely,

An image of a cursive signature in black text.An image of a cursive signature in black text.

Louis Navellier

Editor, Market 360

The Editor hereby discloses that as of the date of this email, the Editor, directly or indirectly, owns the following securities that are the subject of the commentary, analysis, opinions, advice, or recommendations in, or which are otherwise mentioned in, the essay set forth below:

Celestica, Inc. (CLS) and Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP)



Source link

Must Watch: A Take on the Tariffs You Won’t See Anywhere Else


How to adjust to the profound transformation playing out…

Editor’s Note: Yesterday, I shared my approach to President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff plan. While I’m sticking with my “Keep Calm and Carry On” strategy and staying focused on lowly valued, “unpopular” stocks, my InvestorPlace colleague Louis Navellier offers a different perspective worth considering.

You can hear Louis’s take in this insightful video interview with InvestorPlace Editor-in-Chief Luis Hernandez.

Though this market selloff is understandably causing anxiety, both Louis and I want to reassure you: Solid investment opportunities are still very much present. And I’ll be sharing some of my own in this space in the coming days and weeks.

Meanwhile, here’s Louis…

Well, it’s official, folks. Liberation Day is here, and we now know the details of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

I just recorded a short video to answer the questions on all our minds:

“How will the tariffs impact the market, and how should I position myself accordingly?”

Here’s what we know…

Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on all imports starting April 5. Other countries that Trump considers “bad actors” will pay a reciprocal tariff.

These higher tariffs will be half of what the White House estimates other countries are charging us, either through outright tariffs, trade barriers, or currency manipulation.

Duties include 24% on Japan and 20% on the European Union, and those are effective April 9. There’s also a new 34% tariff on Chinese goods on top of already announced 20% duties.

Now, this is all fascinating to watch, and the market is clearly up in arms over this right now. But I want to be very clear, folks…

What we are witnessing is a profound transformation of the way we do business. The goals of the tariffs have always been the same: level the playing field on trade, increase tax revenue, and ultimately create a massive wave of onshoring to the United States.

We’re already seeing that play out, as there has been roughly $6 trillion in onshoring already announced – and we could soon approach $10 trillion.

So, once the dust settles and the market realizes the effects of this mega-wave of onshoring, the U.S. economy could be primed to boom.

That’s why I just sat down with Luis Hernandez, Editor-in-Chief of InvestorPlace, to explain what investors can expect from the tariffs – and how they can profit.

Just press “play” below to watch this short video.

Now, the bottom line is I don’t want you to let the tariff headlines throw you off track.

The reality is that once everything is in motion, I expect growth to accelerate drastically, especially as the current administration clears away more red tape and unleashes the next wave of innovation in the AI Revolution.

You see, these tariff changes are just one part of a massive convergence that’s taking place between Trump’s policies and the AI Revolution.

As this Trump/AI Convergence happens, I expect it to unlock powerful gains for investors.

That’s where my Accelerated Profits service comes in. My Buy List is full of stocks that hold up when the market gets choppy – and sprint ahead when things turn around.

That’s why my Accelerated Profits subscribers had the chance, over the past year or so, for gains such as…

  • 90.25% from Celestica, Inc. (CLS)
  • 95.13% from Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR)
  • 114.49% from Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP)
  • 187.28% from YPF Sociedad Anonomia (YPF)
  • 604% from Vista Oil & Gas (VIST)

In fact, my system has identified the companies best positioned to thrive in this new Trump/AI Convergence – stocks with superior fundamentals and persistent institutional buying pressure.

Click here to learn more now.

Regards,

Louis Navellier

Editor, Market360

Louis hereby discloses that as of the date of this email, Louis, directly or indirectly, owns the following securities that are the subject of the commentary, analysis, opinions, advice, or recommendations in, or which are otherwise mentioned in, the essay set forth below:

Celestica, Inc. (CLS) and Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP)

Transcript

Luis Hernandez: Hi, I’m Luis Hernandez, Editor-in-Chief at InvestorPlace. Well, it’s the day after “Liberation Day” when President Donald Trump announced his plans for the introduction of a series of new tariffs. Here are the basics…

A 10% baseline tariff. These are across-the-board levies on all imports starting April 5. Other countries will pay a discounted reciprocal tariff. So higher rates for some nations that Trump considers bad actors. Duties include 24% on Japan and 20% on the EU in lieu of the universal 10% tariff, and those are effective April 9. A new 34% tariff on Chinese goods on top of already announced duties such as the 20% tariff Trump imposed over fentanyl. That means the base tariff rate on Chinese imports will be 54% before adding tariffs imposed during Biden’s presidency or Trump’s first term.

Canada and Mexico are excluded from the reciprocal tariff regime. Trump said he’s imposing 25% tariffs on all foreign-made autos as of midnight last night.

Today I’m here with investing legend Louis Navellier, to explain what it all means for investors today and what they can expect to happen over the coming weeks. Whether you’re a free trade believer or think trade tariffs are a great idea, you need to be prepared for whatever happens next. And as we always like to say, if you don’t prepare, you’ll be left behind.

Louis, thanks for taking the time.

Louis Navellier: Well, I think the first obvious comment I have is that Howard Lutnick is in charge. He’s the commerce secretary, and he’s the one that’s been pushing for the tariffs to eventually eliminate the income tax. Now, that’s a tall task and I don’t think he’ll get there, but he may be able to reduce the income tax more with these tariffs.

Just to be academic, and I don’t want to get anybody upset, in America we do have huge underground economies. You have 20% of Californians, for example, don’t even have bank accounts. This is part of the crypto economy and other things that are out there. So if you have an underground economy that you can’t tax, and those underground economies are throughout America, you either have to put on a national sales tax or a value-added (VAT) tax. Excuse me, the tariffs. It’s either a VAT or the tariffs.

So they’ve chosen to go the tariff route and it is going to hurt some consumers, but the bottom line is you’re going to not pay as much income tax as longer term.

The other thing is the dollar opened up weak today because the British pound surging and so is the euro. That’s going to reverse. The dollar’s going to get its mojo back, be super strong and the strength of the dollar might entirely offset the 10% tariffs, the baseline tariffs.

As far as the reciprocal tariffs on everybody else that are much higher, Trump pointed out, they’re half of what they do to us. And it’s going to be fascinating to see how all this unfolds. This is really hurting Southeast Asia a lot, and we had huge tariffs with Vietnam, Thailand, I can go on and on. And so somebody like Nike Inc. (NKE) that makes shoes in Vietnam, they’re going to be impacted immensely.

But the tariffs on the chips, semiconductor chips, I’m not too worried about because obviously we have that big Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) plant in Gilbert, Arizona that they’re investing literally a hundred plus billion additionally. So I think that’ll just cause more onshoring.

Of course, the whole objective of this is to onshore everything. And Trump already announced that there’s over $6 trillion onshoring that he knows of. But if we get the German auto plants to beef up their facilities in Alabama, South Carolina, Tennessee, we could be approaching almost $10 trillion in onshoring, which is mind-boggling.

I am also fascinated that there’s a 10% tariff on Britain where we run a trade surplus. We also run a trade surplus with Australia, so there’s a 10% tariff on them, but there’s a 20% tariff on the European Union (EU). There’s no doubt Trump’s going to war with the EU.

And if I’m Chancellor Merz in Germany, I think he has to surrender. I know he wants to have a strong response with French President Macron on Monday, but I think they need to surrender. They can’t compete. Their electricity is four times higher than ours in America. Trump has already said, I’ll give you the visas for your workers. They already have plants in America. Oh, and by the way, if you stay in Germany, guess what? You can only make electric vehicles by 2035 and you’re not making any money on them. So why don’t you just pick up your entire manufacturing business, which you have been losing because of high electricity prices, move the whole thing to America and you can go back to your old business model of not only EVs but hybrids and ICE vehicles, internal combustion engine vehicles.

So I think this is fascinating. I also think the death of the EU is coming. The U.S. has sent a very strong signal, not to ignore the populace. What happened in France with Marine Le Pen is shocking. The party that wanted to turn on Germany’s nuclear plants to save their manufacturing base, they got 21% of the vote. The second-biggest party in Germany has been totally ignored. So this is J.D. Vance’s assertion.

These negotiations are not going to be nice. Scott Bessent is a straight guy. He’s made it very clear that if they try to retaliate in any manner, it’s not going to end well. So we have all the leverage, but in the end, the dollar will be very strong.

The final comment I have, this is going to accelerate the collapse of interest rates that I keep predicting. You already have Treasury yields down sharply, but the European Central Bank is going to have to be slashing rates. And as global rates collapse, our rates will come down. We’ll be the last to cut, but that’s why I’m still expecting four rate cuts this year.

And China, I want to remind everybody, rates are lower than Japan. China will be at or near zero for the next two decades. And this is going to be just fascinating to watch.

Luis Hernandez: You hit on a couple of points there that I just want to follow up on.

So you mentioned auto manufacturing may be coming over to the United States. Is that the only one or are there other kind of manufacturing sectors that could potentially move to the United States?

Louis Navellier: Well, the auto tariffs are 25%. And what’s confusing to everybody is this USMCA (which is the U.S.-Mexican-Canadian trade) agreement that was modified under Trump 1.0 in its first term, it expires in 2026. And the way I understand it, if your Dodge pickup or your Chevy Equinox, which is made in Mexico, comes over and has 40% non-U.S. content, you’ll be paying a 25% tariff on that non-U.S. content.

General Motors Co. (GM) has outsourced immensely, so they’re really hurt by this. Stellantis NV (STLA) even more so. Obviously, the most domestic auto manufacturer is Tesla Inc. (TSLA). Tesla will benefit from this; they’re about 87% domestic.

Ford Motor Co.’s (F) is about 80%, but Ford does use a lot of aluminum, and that aluminum comes predominantly from Canada because they have the cheap hydroelectric you need to make aluminum, aluminum is very energy intensive. And even the engines on the F-150 are made in Canada.

So we’ll have to see if the shifts. Canada and Mexico are already in recessions and they are in dire shape. And I think the country they’re retaliating the most against is Mexico because their deficit used to be $40 billion and it went to $178 billion because China was doing sub-assembly in Mexico trying to sneak their goods across the border under USMCA and North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) rules.

That’s going to be the big fight, and I’m sure they’re just aghast right now, not only China but also Mexico and Canada.

Luis Hernandez: You also mentioned your prediction that we’re going to see at least four rate cuts this year from the Federal Reserve. What will that do to the market? What do you think the effect is going to be on the stock market when they have to do that?

Louis Navellier: Oh, it’ll cause us to explode. It’s very bullish. The main thing the U.S. has going for it that Europe and Asia don’t have is we have demographic growth. We have household formation. In America, we’re still pro-family, in the South, the Mountain West. Also in America, we assimilate our immigrants no matter how they got here. If you look around the rest of the world, and I’ll pick on Europe for example, they’re losing households. They’re giving away free homes in Sicily, Greece (I think you got to pay a dollar and agree to maintain them or pay a euro and agree to maintain them.)

They have immigration, but they’re not assimilating their immigrants. Britain used to, Germany used to, but they’ve been overrun. And France, of course, has never assimilated their immigrants.

So we just have a better model in America than everybody else. We’re younger, we’re more dynamic. Our 50 states compete with each other. So no matter who we elect, we’re going to win. We’re also food and energy-independent, which a lot of other countries can’t say.

But Asia’s pretty old. The highest birth rate in Asia is in Japan of all places. You would think it would be in Indonesia or Malaysia or Thailand or Vietnam, but it’s not. It’s in Japan.

So something interesting is going on around the world and the only countries that are expanding are the U.S., India and Brazil. And Brazil is about to stop expanding. So it’ll be the U.S. and India leading the way. But if you didn’t notice, Trump really slammed India with a lot of big tariffs.

Luis Hernandez: So let me ask you about the AI megatrend. That is what has been pushing the market for the last couple of years, of course. So is there an intersection here between what’s going on with tariffs and the AI megatrend, the Magnificent 7 and what that’s going to look like in the near term?

Louis Navellier: Well, Europe is going to try to punish America for these tariffs and they’re going to zero in on the tech companies.

If we just go back and look at what Europe’s doing, they obviously fined Apple Inc. (AAPL), they’ve been openly hostile to all U.S. tech companies. They want this thing called open-source software. And if you go back to the airplane crash on the Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Azure Cloud, Microsoft didn’t blame CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. (CRWD) for that crash because there was an upgrade that crashed. Microsoft blamed Europe for the open-source software.

So Lina Khan, our former Federal Trade Commission (FTC) chairman, that’s all she wanted was open-source software. Keir Starmer, when he met with President Trump, is trying to get Apple to open up the iCloud so they can read everything in there and find if anybody’s bashing the Labour Party. Because if you do criticize the Labour Party, you can be imprisoned in Britain. They’re pursuing their opponents.

So all the tech companies have had a run to President Trump for protection. So Apple is getting protection from President Trump, and of course, President Trump got him to do half of $500 billion in investments. You can see the flip that Facebook – Meta Platforms Inc. (META) – did by embracing Trump. Google, of course, has a Justice Department ruling that they have to split up, so they need protection from Trump too, from the previous Justice Department. When they won that ruling against Google, it’s like the equivalent of a dog catching a car. What do they do now? You want to think about what you’re doing.

But Lina Khan was pushing for everything to be open source. And of course, she was suing Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN).

These are legal monopolies, our Magnificent 7, our tech companies and they’re all seeking the protection of President Trump and against Europe. And that’s the epic battle we’re having, and I expect them and us to win because what’s the alternative? The alternative would be opening up their architecture, having constant crashes as the regulators got in and read everything we do and try to humiliate us and imprison us and all that kind of stuff. Whatever they do over there to their opponents.

I mean, Europe is going to break up. The most popular guy in Romania cannot run for president. The Brussels has just disallowed him. The gal that runs the French Parliament, Marie Le Pen, now cannot run for president. Giorgia Meloni in Italy wanted to deport some people that the European courts have said she can’t.

So it was one thing to have a monetary union or a trade union. So the EU makes sense from that point of view. But when they start to run your governments and tell you what to do, that’s another matter.

So trust me, I guarantee you can talk to all these German engineers at the auto companies. They don’t want to do what the EU is telling them to do.

The other thing that’s so fascinating about what’s going on is that there’s been a big pushback against all the green movement. Obviously, that’s why they’re burning Teslas. And that makes no sense. But we’re learning, at least in America, we learned that the green movement was a front to enrich people. So I’m originally from California, from Berkeley, and I’ve been indoctrinated in all this stuff and I’m not anti-green energy. It works great in sunny places like Southern California or Arizona or Las Vegas. But what happens is they took this movement and they figured out how to enrich their friends. So we now know that Stacey Abrams got $2 billion for her non-governmental organization (NGO) to basically upgrade people’s appliances if they cut off natural gas. So for $2 billion, she upgraded the 89 homes and appliances.

I don’t know, I don’t think that’s cost-effective. It’s the same thing with the broadband for America. They spent a fortune on that never got built. You can use Starlink now, you don’t need it.

What’s happening is the U.S. is going to be more productive. We’re purging government now, obviously Elon’s doing that, and AI is going to make us super productive. It’s going to be driving all our cars. GM already announced the alliance with NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) at NVIDIA’s Summit, and who else is aligned with NVIDIA is Toyota, BYD Company (BYDDY), Mercedes, Volvo, I can go on and on.

And then we have the Tesla autonomous system, the NVIDIA autonomous system. We’ve got dueling robotaxis. You’ll be having the driverless cars in Washington D.C. soon, so good luck with that, the Waymos. Basically, Google versus Tesla, who has the best system, because they’re different. One’s LiDAR with the NVIDIA stuff and one’s based on the mapping that Tesla does.

And every decision in the boardroom, well, there’ll be an AI opinion there. And then AI will be on the factory floors.

With all the manufacturing onshoring, it’ll be fascinating how much of it can be done with robots. There’s a good video out there of all the robots running around with goods on their backs, dumping them into holes, and then when their batteries run out, they all go back to their little charging stations. But it’s fun to watch them run around and not hit each other because of the sensors.

The U.S. is going to lead the world in productivity.

And by the way, Japan’s been pretty good in productivity too. Japan’s been one of the few societies that can age and still get more productive.

So I think us and Japan will lead the way. And I think AI is the key to profitability and prosperity, to be honest with you.

Luis Hernandez: Okay. So you’ve said before that over the short term the market acts like a manic herd, but now that we’ve had the Liberation Day announcements, and if these tariffs are more of a ceiling and not a floor, do you think the market’s going to act a little bit more rationally going forward from here?

Louis Navellier: Yeah, I do. First of all, you have to understand the reason the market’s gapping down is Asia gap down.

So there was a reaction. The bigger the board, the lower the IQ, the bigger the crowd, the lower the IQ. What happens is the market is a manic crowd. So all we’re getting is just Asia’s shock and Europe’s shock. But that doesn’t affect us. I’m recommending 80 plus stocks, I don’t have one analyst cut, not one. And we’ve already seen the earnings work. Argan Inc. (AGX) reported last week gapped up 20%. We saw one of our other stocks get bought out, Mr. Cooper Group Inc. (COOP).

We’re still going to lead the world.

The only thing that’s so confusing is we are going to have negative Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth because they dumped… Our gold reserves went up 43% in January, 25% in February. They dumped goods in America in January and February (I don’t have the March numbers.) And so the trade deficit got so out of whack that it’s going to have negative GDP growth in the first quarter. But we just don’t have the signs of that. We don’t have the labor signs or anything. And I think we’ll be fine.

My other comment is that we do recommend five gold stocks. So it’s important that people own those because when we get the really bad days, they definitely zig when other things zag.

Luis Hernandez: Yep. So I know you well enough to know that you’re not going to be changing your style here after 40 years of success. And you mentioned that you’re not having a lot of analyst revisions downward. Can you give us a couple of your favorite stocks right now just for folks to take away?

Louis Navellier: Well, lock and load on NVIDIA. I mean that’s a stock that’ll change your life and it will dominate through the end of the decade. They have two more reiterations of the Blackwell chip, they already got fancy names for them. And then after the end of the decade, they can’t make their chips much faster because they’re approaching the atomic level of the transistors. You can’t split items to make your chips faster. So then they have to switch to quantum computing, which of course they had that contest. And we’ve done some research reports on the winners of that cloud computing challenge, excuse me, the quantum computing challenge.

So NVIDIA is definitely a stock you should hold through the end of the decade. It’ll change your life. I love Jensen. He’s one of the few founders that can run a company. So that’s the first one.

The second one is I really like Eli Lilly And Co. (LLY). Lilly is onshoring. The weight loss drug phenomenon is real and they are beating Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) in the weight loss medication. Novo Nordisk dominates diabetes medication. We sold Novo Nordisk quite a few months ago, mainly because Lilly’s beating them. So if you want to play that trend, Lilly’s a good buy here near term.

But our small-cap stocks are bunnies. They sit, they hop, they’re very erratic. There’s a lot of great small-cap buys like Powell Industries Inc. (POWL). I’ve lost track of how many great ones there are, but they’ll all pop around their earnings. I’m very comfortable and confident of that.

Luis Hernandez: Terrific, Louis. Thanks so much for your insights. It’s going to be a fascinating time for sure.

Louis Navellier: Oh, it’s going to be very exciting, but it can only get better.

And by the way, they got Scott Bessent out and about. They got Howard Lutnick out and about. There’s a big PR push underway right now, so let’s just let that push.

And Europe is totally screwed. So they think they’re going to retaliate on Monday, they’re not. Whatever they do, they just hurt themselves and it’s going to be fascinating to watch, but we have all the leverage. I don’t think Trump enjoys tormenting people, but I think he does like to have leverage in negotiations, and there’s no doubt he’s asserting that. And there’s no doubt that it ends with how much are you going to onshore. And the more they onshore, the more we win.

So that’s what’s happening.

Luis Hernandez: Okay. Thanks, Louis. I appreciate it.

Louis Navellier: Thank you.

Luis Hernandez: Folks, below this video, you should see a link to Louis’s Accelerated Profits product. This is Louis’s fastest-moving service focused on finding stocks that are making short-term moves to the upside so you don’t have to endure the constant market swings.

Besides frequent new buys, usually at least two every month, every Tuesday, Louis identifies his top three stocks to buy right now. So when you join, you’ll see Louis’s latest favorite picks today and then get them every Tuesday going forward.

Thanks again for your attention.



Source link

Laser-Focus on These Tariff-Proof Stocks Before It’s Too Late


Hello, Reader.

In 1939, the British government wanted to boost public morale before the outbreak of World War II. So, they created a series of posters that featured simple motivational sayings.

The posters were never officially released, but one in the series gained widespread popularity after it was rediscovered in an English bookshop nearly 60 years later.

And there’s a good chance you’ve seen it…

This bright red poster quickly became a global phenomenon. There is even an official “Keep Calm and Carry On” web store, which sells T-shirts, mugs, and phone cases featuring the now iconic phrase.

The message is, indeed, simple, yet effective: We must stay composed in the face of adversity, continuing on as best we can.

And it’s a sentiment I’d like to share today, especially ahead of President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcements.

Trump is expected to announce a sweeping tariff plan after markets close today. So far, the plan has remained largely a mystery. Even this morning, the administration seemed unsure about the direction it is going to take.

Of course, it can be hard to “Keep Calm and Carry On” against so many unknowns.

But here’s what I do know: The best thing to do to “tariff-proof” your portfolio is to stay away from companies close to the trade war’s ground zero.

Here’s where to look instead…

Keeping Calm…

I recommend sticking with lowly valued, and seemingly “unpopular,” stocks.

Pharmaceuticals would be one such example.

Take Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY), one of the largest biopharmaceutical companies in the world… and one of healthcare industry’s greatest comeback stories.

As we wrote just yesterday in a weekly update for my paid Fry’s Investment Report service…

Shares of the firm had previously sold off on fears of a three-step patent cliff from cancer drugs Revlimid and Opdivo and heart drug Eliquis. A technical write-off of its 2024 Karuna acquisition only added to the selloff. 

But these cheap prices created an incredible buying opportunity that continues through today. BMY still trades in single-digit price-to-earnings ratios, despite now having one of the best oncology pipelines in the business. It also has growing potential in disorders like schizophrenia and Alzheimer’s disease thanks to its acquisition of Cobenfy last year. In fact, BMY has actually risen this week.

Indeed, many of the pharmaceutical names in my Fry’s Investment Report portfolio are up this week, despite the uncertainty.

Weeks before the threat of Trump’s tariffs arrived, I predicted that the lowly valued pharmaceutical sector would outperform the richly valued S&P 500 index. As I explained at the start of the year…

The pharmaceutical industry is becoming a hotbed of AI-enabled innovation and discovery. Therefore, as AI extends its tentacles into every facet of the drug discovery process, the industry’s profitability could grow considerably. Yet, The NYSE Arca Pharmaceutical Index is trading for just 14 estimated 2025 earnings, or 40% less than the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 index. I expect that valuation gap to narrow considerably during 2025, as pharmaceutical stocks outperform most tech stocks.

So far, so good on that forecast.

In an otherwise bleak stock market environment, the pharma sector has been outperforming the Nasdaq-100 Index by a wide margin. The NYSE Arca Pharmaceutical Index has advanced 7% year-to-date, compared to the Nasdaq-100’s 7% loss, another richly valued index.

The same can be said for the European markets…

… And Carrying On

Even though shares of European stocks are down this week, they also have been outperforming our own market in 2025, for the most part.

That’s because they carry relatively low valuations.

It’s also because European companies have no “beef” with other countries. So even if they are shut out from the U.S. market in Trump’s latest tariff plans, they are not shut out from South America, Canada, or Asia.

In fact, to the extent that the rest of the world retaliates against the U.S., European companies could become “swing” providers of many products to other countries.

So, before today’s Liberation Day announcements and after, I will continue to “Keep Calm and Carry On.”

And I’ll help my paid-up members do the same by focusing on lowly valued sectors and stocks.

I recommend that you do that same… and the best way to do is by joining us at Fry’s Investment Report.

Click here to learn how to become a member today.

Regards,

Eric Fry

P.S. You’re almost out of time to access what could be the most important financial research of 2025.

For the past few years, Louis Navellier, Luke Lango, and I have been warning about a massive economic divide we call the “Technochasm” – and our predictions have proven alarmingly accurate. Now, we’re sounding the alarm about an even more dramatic acceleration of this trend, driven by AI’s explosive growth.

We have just issued urgent buy alerts on six stocks that could surge in the coming weeks and months, as AI enters turns the Technochasm into an abyss. You can learn more about how this will all play out in the markets and the names of these six stocks by watching this time sensitive video.

Just please don’t delay… this video comes offline tonight at midnight ET.



Source link

Trump Unveils “Kind” Tariffs | InvestorPlace


Trump reveals his reciprocal tariff plan … do we need to worry about a recession? … your last chance to get Louis Navellier’s AI picks … a huge opportunity in natural gas

Coming into today, here’s where we stood with tariffs…

  • Last week, President Trump signed an executive order putting a 25% tariff on all cars and light-duty trucks imported into the U.S.
  • Trump had imposed a 20% tax on all Chinese imports.
  • The administration had signaled it will add imports of beer and empty aluminum cans to its 25% tariffs on derivative aluminum products.

As we’re going to press, President Trump has just revealed the details of his master reciprocal tariff plan. We’re rushing to get today’s issue out, so here’s the quick recap of what we’ve learned.

First, Trump confirmed that the 25% tariff on non-U.S.-made cars will begin tomorrow.

As to new tariffs, Trump said that his administration will be “charging a discounted reciprocal tariff.”

Specifically, they’ve tallied the combined rate of all foreign tariffs on U.S. goods plus indirect financial impositions (currency manipulation and trade barriers). Based on that total amount, the U.S. will impose a reciprocal tariff of half that amount. Trump referred to this as “kind” reciprocal.

Trump also clarified that the U.S. will impose a minimum baseline tariff of 10% on all countries.

Here’s the “Liberation Day Reciprocal Tariffs” list from The White House:

Graphic showing the “Liberation Day Reciprocal Tariffs” list from The White House

Source: White House data

Trump made his overall goal clear after delineating the various country-specific tariffs, saying:

If you want your tariff rate to be 0%, build your product here in America.

So, where do we go from here?

Here’s what our hypergrowth expert Luke Lango wrote earlier this week about the likely path. From his Innovation Investor Daily Notes:

We think that, despite all the intense and hostile rhetoric out there right now, everyone will rush to the negotiating table to quickly strike new trade deals in April.

We expect the tough talk to turn into a soft walk. Deals get done when the stakes are this high — and we fully expect the U.S., Canada, the EU, and others to come to the table and hammer out a flurry of new trade agreements in the next few weeks.

Consequently, we believe that most of these tariffs won’t last more than a few weeks and that by late April, most of this tariff drama will be in the rearview mirror. 

That means the trade war hysteria should cool down in the next few weeks.

And once that happens? This market should rip higher.

Let’s not forget — this selloff isn’t about what has happened. It’s about fear. Fear of what might happen. And if that worst-case scenario never shows up, the fear unwinds, and equities snap back hard.

There’s a lot to unpack from Trump’s announcement today. We’ll bring you the analysis and action steps from our analysts over the coming days.

I will note that stock futures are down big as I write with the Nasdaq off more than 2%.

Stay tuned.

To what extent do we need to worry about a recession?

On Monday, both Goldman Sachs and Moody’s Analytics raised their probabilities of a recession.

Goldman upped the odds from 20% to 35%. Moody’s went from 15% at the start of the year to 40%.

Meanwhile, if we look at the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tool, its latest estimate predicts a 3.7% economic contraction in Q1.

How seriously do we need to take this?

Let’s go to legendary investor, Louis Navellier, editor of Growth Investor:

The Atlanta Fed now expects the U.S. economy to contract in the first quarter – and that rattled Wall Street.

The primary reason why GDP growth is forecast to be negative in the first quarter is due to a big trade deficit, which is because of all the dumping of imported goods and an increase in gold inventory…

So, the trade deficit is now deducting a whopping 4% from first-quarter GDP growth. In other words, excluding the trade deficit, the U.S. economy is still growing.

I should also add that none of the economic tea leaves signal a recession.

Both Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently stated that the U.S. economy is “healthy.”

Louis also highlights some recent, positive economic reports.

For example, we just saw a surprising jump in existing home sales.

He also notes that the Trump administration is soliciting trillions in onshoring which, if successful, would boost GDP growth.

Put it all together and here’s Louis’ bottom line:

The U.S. is not at risk of falling into a recession.

But Louis is seeing opportunity in certain AI stocks that have imploded due to recession fears

Here’s Louis in yesterday’s Digest:

Remember, markets are manic. Wall Street has ignored a lot of great AI news lately.

[Despite AI earnings growth], investors have only focused on the negatives lately (mainly tariffs). The media only adds fuel to the fire in situations like this, because every setback in talks, and every ensuing pullback, is covered like it’s a full-blown crisis.

This has sent the prices of many world-class AI stocks into correction territory. As a result, we’re now facing a grossly oversold stock market where phenomenal companies like NVIDIA are trading at incredible discounts.

To Louis’ point, NVDA is down 27% from its January high.

And the Magnificent 7 stocks as a whole (a proxy for mega-tech AI leadership) have fallen into an official bear market.

Chart showing the Magnificent 7 stocks as a whole (a proxy for mega-tech AI leadership) have fallen into an official bear market.

Source: Koyfin

It’s gotten so bad that bears have renamed the “Mag 7s” the “Lag 7s.”

But as we’ve been tracking here in the Digest, Louis, along with our global macro expert Eric Fry and our technology expert Luke Lango, have been urging investors to use this selloff as a chance to buy into tomorrow’s AI leaders.

This is even more important considering how AI is exploding our nation’s wealth gap.

Last week, Louis, Eric, and Luke provided a roadmap for the best way to invest in AI today in light of “The Technochasm”

This is their term to describe the widening wealth divide generated from cutting-edge technology and AI.

In their presentation, they detailed three critical steps investors must take now to stay on the right side of this growing tech divide, along with a basket of top-tier AI stocks.

Here’s Luke with what happened the last time our three analysts provided a Technochasm-themed basket of recommendations:

We called the Technochasm in 2020. So, believe us when we tell you that this is a chasm that companies and individuals either leap across or fall into. There is no middle ground.

Those who listened to us in 2020 banked ~1,350% from Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) in 11 months, ~1,000% from Nvidia (NVDA), and upward of 1,200% from Fulgent Genetics Inc. (FLGT) in under two years.

Peanuts, maybe, compared to what’s ahead.

For investors, this creates a once-in-a-generation opportunity.

If you missed last week’s free presentation, you can watch it right here. Please note that today is the last day it’ll be available.

Don’t miss this opportunity in natural gas

We’re tracking a disconnect brewing in the natural gas market that’s setting up a buying opportunity.

Gas prices are rising, but natural gas stocks are falling. In the background, demand is climbing as inventories drop.

Eventually, this should result in high-quality natural gas stocks shooting higher to reflect today’s bullish imbalance.

Eric, editor of Investment Report, highlighted this opportunity on Monday.

To establish context for his research, let’s begin by comparing the First Trust Natural Gas ETF (FCG) to the price of natural gas (a 4-week rolling average). FCG holds oil/gas heavyweights including ConocoPhillips, Hess, EQT Corporation, Occidental, and Diamondback Energy.

In the chart below, notice how FCG’s price (in green) has gone nowhere over the last two months while the price of natural gas (in black) has jumped around 35%.

Chart showing the First Trust Natural Gas ETF (FCG) to the price of natural gas (a 4-week rolling average). FCG holds oil/gas heavyweights including ConocoPhillips, Hess, EQT Corporation, Occidental, and Diamondback Energy. In the chart below, notice how FCG’s price (in green) has gone nowhere over the last two months while the price of natural gas (in black) has jumped around 35%.Chart showing the First Trust Natural Gas ETF (FCG) to the price of natural gas (a 4-week rolling average). FCG holds oil/gas heavyweights including ConocoPhillips, Hess, EQT Corporation, Occidental, and Diamondback Energy. In the chart below, notice how FCG’s price (in green) has gone nowhere over the last two months while the price of natural gas (in black) has jumped around 35%.

From a basic “supply/demand” perspective, the rising price of natural gas makes sense – our nation’s supply levels are falling due to demand.

Here’s Eric:

U.S. natural gas in storage, relative to seasonal three-year average levels, has been dropping sharply for nearly a year.

The most recent reading showed storage levels 14% below average levels for this time of year.

Against this backdrop, U.S. natural gas demand is on track to surpass supply by a wide margin over the next two years, which should reduce stockpiles even further below three-year average levels.

Exports to foreign countries are behind much of the inventory drawdown

In February, the amount of gas flowing to U.S. export plants hit a record high. March’s export volumes are likely to set another record.

Better still, forecasts call for a continuation of the bullish imbalance between supply and demand after including U.S. exports. Here’s Eric with details:

Looking down the road, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts LNG exports will grow by 2.1 Bcf/d in 2026, due to new export facilities…

Unlike domestic demand spikes that occur during exceptionally cold winters or hot summers, LNG export demand is relatively constant. Once in place, it remains in place and continues to consume domestic gas supplies…

As such, this source of demand puts continuous upward pressure on natural gas prices, especially if domestic gas production fails to keep pace.

The EIA is predicting that exact scenario. Although the agency expects domestic production to increase by 3.6% during the next two years, that figure is well below the 5.8% demand growth the agency predicts.

All the pieces are in place for higher stock prices for leading natural gas plays.

So, why aren’t prices already higher?

Part of the answer circles us back to the new segment we began last week…

Uncertainty has weighed on the oil patch

Last Friday, we began a new running segment: “Uncertainty Watch.”

Behind the segment is a lack of confidence in the direction of our economy that has begun to lead some consumers to hold off on purchases, and some corporate planners to hold off on major cap ex expenditures. Much of it stems from President Trump’s tariff plans, which have been unclear up until this afternoon.

This uncertainty has hit the oil sector. Last week, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas released the results of its quarterly survey of anonymous oil executives.

Here’s one such response highlighting the effect of uncertainty:

As a public company, our investors hate uncertainty. This has led to a marked increase in the implied cost of capital of our business, with public energy stocks down significantly more than oil prices over the last two months.

This uncertainty is being caused by the conflicting messages coming from the new administration.

Now, an astute reader might say, “Wait, oil and gas aren’t the same thing. I can understand oil stocks being down, but why are natural gas stocks lower, especially considering the supply/demand imbalance?”

Here’s Eric:

Tumbling crude oil prices probably deserve most of the blame…

For starters, falling crude prices cast a pall over the entire fossil fuel sector. In addition, most major natural gas producers also produce significant volumes of crude oil.

As a result, the shares of almost every North American natural gas producer have been sliding lower, no matter how little crude each company produces.

So, we’ll see how this all shakes out. But what we know for certain is that there’s a disconnect between natural gas prices and leading natural gas stocks. History shows this divergence will eventually close.

Eric recommended his favorite way to play this to his Investment Report subscribers. I won’t reveal it out of respect for subscribers, but here’s Eric referencing it:

At less than eight times earnings, its share price seems substantially undervalued, relative to both its peer group and to its “hidden” earnings potential from its holdings in the Delaware Basin chunk of the Permian.

But all that means is that this company currently offers a great buying opportunity.

Bottom line: U.S. natural gas is “Buy,” which means this natural gas play is a “Strong Buy.”

For more on joining Eric in Investment Report, click here.

We’ll keep you updated on all these stories here in the Digest.

Have a good evening,

Jeff Remsburg



Source link

Humanoid Robots: Betting on the Next Big AI Breakthrough


Editor’s Note: After waking up on the wrong side of the bed this morning, the stock market is finding its footing this afternoon.

The fact is folks are anxiously awaiting the Trump administration’s big tariff announcements. Now, I suspect today’s announcement will be more favorable than some expect. We’ll know more following this afternoon’s event in the White House.

But rest assured, folks, I am following the developments closely and will weigh in with my thoughts in tomorrow’s Market 360. I’m also shooting a video interview with InvestorPlace Editor-in-Chief Luis Hernandez to explain what we learned about the tariffs and how investors can best position themselves to profit in this environment.

In the meantime, today is the last day to catch the replay of the special Technochasm broadcast I recently filmed with my InvestorPlace colleagues Eric Fry and Luke Lango. In it, we discussed the emerging, massive economic divide that’s being driven by AI’s explosive growth.

While most investors are focused on tariffs, we shouldn’t ignore the fact that the forces behind the Technochasm will be some of the most disruptive (but also profitable) opportunities of our lifetimes. And as you’ll learn from Luke today, one of those destructive forces is robotics.

Check out the replay of our event here. And now, over to Luke…

************

For years, artificial intelligence has been trapped behind screens, powering chatbots and crunching data. But the next big revolution in AI won’t just talk. It will walk, move, and workin ways very similar to us. 

I’m talking, of course, about humanoid robots

These creations are finally stepping out of science fiction and into reality, possibly poised to become the most disruptive AI advancement yet. From factory floors to elder care, these machines could easily reshape industries, redefine labor… maybe even challenge what it means to be human. 

But don’t just take my word for it. 

Everyone who’s anyone in the tech world is betting on humanoid robots being the next big AI breakthrough. Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, is certainly all-in on them. 

His firm Tesla Inc. (TSLA) has created a humanoid robot called Optimus, which is already being used inside Tesla factories to complete a variety of tasks. The company plans to ramp Optimus production to use them in its factories worldwide. It’s said that next year, it will start selling its robots to outside companies. And after that, it aims to offer them to consumers like you and me. We could soon have our own personal humanoid robot assistant in our homes, doing everything from unloading groceries and cleaning to safeguarding our house while we’re away. 

Clearly, Musk thinks humanoid robots are big business. In fact, on a recent Wall Street conference call, he said that he thinks “Optimus will be overwhelmingly the value of the company” with“the potential to be north of $10 trillion in revenue.” 

Those are bold statements. 

Yet, his bullishness on this breakthrough tech is not isolated. 

Big Tech’s Sweeping Bullishness

Meta (META) CEO Mark Zuckerberg is just as enthusiastic about a humanoid robot ‘takeover.’ 

He just created a new business unit within the company that is dedicated to the development of humanoid technology. Reportedly, Meta isn’t trying to create a full robot but, rather, an underlying software platform that robot-makers like Tesla can integrate into their bots. 

Meanwhile, Apple (AAPL) – the world’s largest company – has research teams within its own AI business that are working to develop robotics technologies. According to analysts, Apple is considering a range of robotics systems, from simple devices to complex humanoid machines, as part of a future smart home ecosystem where everything is automated. 

Alphabet (GOOGL) has also been investigating robotics technology and just invested in humanoid robotics startup Apptronik

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) just launched a new family of foundational AI models called Cosmos designed to help humanoid robots navigate the real world. 

OpenAI – maker of ChatGPT – is reportedly considering embarking on a humanoid endeavor.

And Microsoft (MSFT) has partnered with Sanctuary AI to build general-purpose humanoid robots. 

It seems the race is on!

And that means humanoid robots are coming soon – maybe to your very own home…

The Final Word on Humanoid Robots

Here’s the thing about Big Tech companies. They have enough money and talent that when they decide to do something, it is only a matter of time before they get it done. 

Nearly all have decided to tackle humanoid robots. They will get it done, likely within a few years. We could see ~$20,000 humanoid robots for sale on Tesla’s or Amazon’s websites by this decade’s end. These robots could be in millions of homes by the time 2030 rolls around. 

Clearly, the next stage of the AI Revolution has begun. (Check out our urgent broadcast on that here.)

That’s why I’m bringing your attention to Elon Musk and his AI robot, Optimus, today. 

I think it has the potential to profoundly change the world and go down in history as Musk’s greatest achievement. 

But this next stage of the AI Revolution is about much more than just robots.

This next phase is creating something my InvestorPlace colleagues, Eric Fry and Louis Navellier, and I call the Technochasm. It’s something we’ve been talking about for five years now.

See, there is a shift ripping through the economy – a split that will create a vast chasm between the haves and have-nots. The end result? The biggest wealth shift since the Industrial Revolution.

How you position yourself on the right side of the growing chasm is crucial. That’s where we come in.

Just last week, Eric, Louis, and I held an urgent briefing to share a groundbreaking AI announcement that could make or break investors moving forward.

Watch the replay to get the blueprint you need to follow if you want to make the most money possible in this next chapter of the Technochasm – before it goes offline at midnight ET tonight.

Regards,

Luke Lango's signatureLuke Lango's signature

Luke Lango

Senior Analyst, InvestorPlace

P.S. Louis here again. I know the market has been a bit sloppy today, folks. But hopefully, this afternoon’s tariff announcements will clear the way for the market to begin rallying.

Stay tuned for my thoughts tomorrow.



Source link