Fed Holds Steady, But Stocks Could Surge on Summer Rate Cuts


“Pressure will build on the Fed to prioritize the full-employment side of its dual mandate”

To cut or not to cut; that is the question. And yesterday, to many folks’ chagrin, the Federal Reserve decided not to cut and hold interest rates steady instead.

By now, you’ve probably read a handful of takes on the central bank’s most recent meeting. Most saw it as a “snooze fest.” The Fed didn’t hike or cut rates. And at the post-meeting press conference, Fed Board Chair Jerome Powell played his cards close to his chest, not giving much insight as to what the central bank will do next. He simply emphasized that the Fed remains in “wait-and-see” mode. 

How boring. 

Or maybe not… 

While many saw yesterday’s Fed meeting as a nonevent, we still believe it was the start of a sneaky summer rally – one that could power AI stocks to new heights by July… 

Why the Fed ‘Snooze Fest’ Speaks Volumes: June Rate Cuts Are Still on the Table

Our bullishness isn’t inspired by what the Fed did yesterday. Rather, it’s all about what it didn’t do. 

The Federal Reserve didn’t shut the door to a June rate cut.

During yesterday’s press conference, the theme of Powell’s message was “wait and see.” He and his fellow Fed members see rising risks to both of the central bank’s mandates – full employment and stable prices. So, the board wants to wait and see how labor and inflation risks evolve over the next few months before making a call on interest rates. 

Makes sense. 

But reading between the lines of that messaging, the implication is that if the economic data shifts more strongly toward labor market risks and away from inflation risks, then the Fed will cut interest rates. 

That is exactly what should happen over the next month – before the Fed’s next meeting in the middle of June. 

The Federal Reserve is worried that tariffs will cause reinflation. But the data shows that’s just not happening. 

Tariffs started in earnest in March, followed by “Liberation Day” levies in early April. In other words, we’re now one to two months into the “tariff era”; and yet, there’s no reinflation. 

The overall U.S inflation – as measured by the Consumer Price Index – was 2.8% in February, before any tariffs hit. And according to the Cleveland Fed, it dropped to 2.4% in March and 2.3% in April. Here in May, it is running at 2.4%. 

It seems that inflation in the “tariff era” has stabilized right around the Fed’s 2% target – meaning that tariff-induced reinflation fears are likely overstated. 

The more CPI reports we get that show stable inflation, the more the Fed will perceive inflation risks as abating. 



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Fed Defies Trump Demands and Holds Rates Steady


The Fed maintains its target rate … is the Fed fighting an illusory war? … the deflationary pressures today … a trade deal – but not with the U.S. … the risk of a coming supply crunch

Today, members of the Federal Reserve held rates steady as was widely expected. The target fed funds rate remains at 4.25% – 4.50%.

The uncertainty was what Fed Chair Jerome Powell would say in his press conference. Here’s the TLDR (“too long, didn’t read”) synopsis:

We don’t know whether inflation or the labor market will deteriorate first. We’re going to wait to adjust policy until the data point us one way or the other.

Here’s the official language to describe this position in the policy statement:

The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen…

In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.

During his press conference, Powell largely restated the same point in different ways in response to reporter questions…

The economy and inflation are in pretty good shape… tariffs have created enormous uncertainty… the risk of higher inflation and higher unemployment have climbed… we don’t know how this will impact our dual mandate… we’ll watch the data and make appropriate moves if/when something begins to break… give it time.

As to signals about a June rate cut, nothing in the official statement nor Powell’s live comments could be interpreted as especially supportive of one. Rather, phrases like “good position to wait”, “can be patient”, and “wait and see” peppered Powell’s comments.

And in fact, traders are immediately changing their bets on a June cut…

According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, yesterday, traders put 68.8% odds on the Fed holding rates steady in June. As I write, only minutes after the end of Powell’s live remarks, those odds have already climbed to 76.7%. I’ll add that a few minutes ago, they were 75.3%.

(For some amazing perspective, one month ago, traders put 99.2% odds on at least a quarter-point cut in June.)

Bottom line: Today’s Fed response boiled down to “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” – despite their admission that the odds of something breaking are rising.

According to legendary investor Louis Navellier this is a mistake.

Why Louis says the Fed should have cut rates

Regular Louis readers know that he’s been railing against the Fed for weeks, saying that Powell & Co. should be cutting rates.

Behind this conviction is Louis’ belief that the Fed is fighting a war against nonexistent inflation. If anything, deflation is the greater concern today.

To unpack this, let’s begin with the recent acceleration of imports.

President Trump wants to reduce the United States’ trade deficit. Ironically, his stop/start on tariffs has exacerbated the imbalance by causing importers to flood product into the U.S. ahead of “reciprocal” tariffs. This has widened our trade deficit in the short term.

Here’s Louis from yesterday’s Flash Alert podcast in Growth Investor:

[Foreign countries are] dumping goods on America.

We just got the latest evidence – we knew it was bad in March, but we didn’t know it was this bad. The trade deficit rose 14.5% from February to March to $40.5 billion. So, the dumping of goods is accelerating.

Just so you know, the trade deficit is now double where it was a year ago, despite the fact that we’ve had a 23.3% increase in exports.

This is going to cause another downward revision to first-quarter GDP because trade’s a big part of GDP calculations.

This inventory dump is inherently deflationary. After all, “more supply” meeting “constant demand” means “lower prices.”

Now, if/when this inventory glut disappears, that’s when “less supply” could be inflationary (more on this later). But Louis anticipates trade deals will have materialized by then.

Further supporting his point about deflation, Louis points toward commodity prices which are falling (except gold)

The biggest example is oil.

On Monday, the price of West Texas Intermediate Crude (the U.S. benchmark) fell below $56.00. Prices have fallen roughly 20% this year.

Lower oil prices don’t just benefit the U.S. consumer at the pump. Oil/gas is used in countless sectors as an ingredient in all sorts of consumer goods (to name a few: cameras, coffee makers, golf balls, lipstick, sunglasses…it’s an enormous list). So, here again, lower prices support a deflationary outlook.

Next, Louis points toward the frozen housing market. He notes that homebuilders have started discounting their prices to move inventory. Those lower prices will bring down the owner’s equivalent rent in our inflation reports (Consumer Price Index and Personal Consumption Expenditures price index).

Put it altogether and here’s Louis’ bottom line:

You have evidence of deflation everywhere and yet the Fed wants to fight mythical inflation that hasn’t materialized…

I’m still in the camp of four Fed rate cuts this year, due largely to collapsing interest rates in Europe…

If they keep talking about inflation in the future that may never show up – I think that’s highly controversial.

All eyes on June…

The latest on trade deals

As we’re going to press, I’m reading the headline “Nvidia shares climb on report Trump will end chip export restrictions” however there are no details yet.

We’ll bring you more on this tomorrow.

While this is welcome news, the broader takeaway remains the same as it’s been for days: We have headlines pointing toward trade deal optimism and progress, but no specifics or signed deals.

On Monday, it was U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick saying he felt “really, really good” about the nation’s economic outlook and potential trade deals, noting “Donald Trump will change the way trade is done.”

On Tuesday, it was Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Here’s Bloomberg with those details:

[Bessent] signaled negotiations with several commercial partners are going well…

Bessent said many countries have good offers, reiterating that some deals may be announced as soon as this week.

He also noted the possibility of a “substantial reduction” in tariffs on US goods…

And this morning, we learned that Bessent and U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer will meet with Chinese negotiators in Switzerland this week to discuss trade.

Bessent assuaged Wall Street fears saying, “We don’t want to decouple, what we want is fair trade.”

In the background, the global trade chess board is shifting

Yesterday, news broke that the UK and India have struck a trade deal.

British Prime Minister Kier Starmer said, “Strengthening our alliances and reducing trade barriers with economies around the world is part of our Plan for Change to deliver a stronger and more secure economy here at home.”

Also yesterday, The Wall Street Journal reported that more countries are negotiating new trade deals with one another. The piece quotes a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, saying:

The U.S. is acting as an accelerant to the lowering of tariffs by everyone else.

Regular Digest readers know that we’ve been wondering about our trade deals – rather, the lack of any of them.

But perhaps there’s a bullish outcome we haven’t considered: a one-time dump that takes the market by surprise.

Let’s go to President Trump yesterday:

We don’t have to sign deals. We could sign 25 deals right now.

We don’t have to sign deals. They have to sign deals with us…

We’re going to put down the price that people are going to have to pay to shop in the United States… We’re just going to put down a number and say this is what you’re going to pay to shop. And it’s going to be a very fair number…

One day we’ll come [to the press], and we’ll give you 100 deals.

Though it’s likely that Trump is speaking off the top of this head, it’s an interesting idea.

If the Trump administration suddenly announces, say, three signed deals at once, that’s going to shock the market in a wonderfully bullish way.

It wouldn’t be unheard of for Trump – ever the showman – to tee up such a dynamic.

While we’re hopeful of such an outcome, in the meantime, the countdown has begun toward a supply crunch

Yesterday, not far from where I live in Los Angeles, the last cargo ship carrying Chinese goods unencumbered by huge tariffs reached port.

The sudden drop-off in shipping is eye-opening. Here’s 4 News Los Angeles:

As the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach this week begin to feel the impact of tariffs imposed on foreign goods by the Trump administration, a reduction in traffic and cargo was visible at the busiest ports in the U.S. on Monday.

Port officials said traffic is down nearly half at the two Southern California ports, signaling that there are fewer products now in LA from China and that there will be fewer jobs.

“We are at a point of inflection. It’s kind of dire,” Mario Cordero, port of Long Beach CEO said Monday.

“What happens here is going to be an indication of what’s going to occur in the supply chain. We have less vessel calls, less cargo now.”

Let’s jump to Newsweek from last Friday with the impact of these reduced vessels and imports:

A sharp decline in imports, driven by the administration’s trade policies, could lead to empty store shelves in May.

Port authorities have warned of a “precipitous” decline in shipping volumes into the U.S., noting that several major retailers were “stopping all shipments from China based on the tariffs.”

Clearly, this is a problem, but likely a bigger one than you realize.

Even if the Trump Administration signs trade deals with every country in the world – except China – you’ll feel it in your wallet. That’s because most of the everyday goods you purchase via Amazon are China-sourced.

As you can see below with data from Statista, 71% of all items sold on Amazon are made in China.

Graphic showing 71% of all items sold on Amazon are made in China.

Source: Statista

So, yes, we want trade deals – loads of them. But we really need either a deal with China or a fast substitute, which appears unlikely.

If not, some of your everyday shopping items may no longer be on those cargo ships…and eventually, on store shelves (or in Amazon carts).

But…

As Louis noted earlier, we have a supply glut right now after businesses frantically imported product into the U.S. ahead of tariffs.

So, how will this play out?

If a trade deal with China materializes while we’re sitting on excess inventory, we’ll see a burst of deflation. The Fed will breathe easier about inflation and likely cut rates, and the market will applaud. Cue a summer rally.

But if there’s no deal with China even after our inventory surplus is depleted, fewer cargo ships will be bringing half the product at double the cost, impacting store shelves, prices, and your wallet.

Such an undesirable outcome is why Bessent has called the 145% tariff on Chinese goods “unsustainable.”

All eyes on Bessent’s negotiations in Switzerland this week. We’re crossing fingers.

Before we wrap up, let’s circle back to Louis for how to make money in this chaotic market

In volatile marks, it helps to refocus on what matters – earnings. This ties into Louis’ “Iron Law of the Stock Market.” Here he is explaining:

Stock price trends can diverge from earnings trends for a while, but over the long-term, if a company grows and grows the amount of cash it takes in, its share price is sure to head higher.

One example from this earnings season is one of Louis’ holdings in Growth Investor Vertiv (VRT) which recently popped on strong earnings.

(Disclaimer: I own Vertiv.)

If you’re less familiar, Vertiv is a leading provider of critical infrastructure solutions for data centers, communication networks, and industrial environments.

Here’s Louis:

Not only did Vertiv beat [earnings forecasts], it said the demand for the AI datacenters was very strong.

The stock is up 14% in a week and a half. It’s just another example of how earnings strength can cut through market chaos.

But it’s not just Vertiv. Here’s Louis from his recent Growth Investor weekly update:

Earnings are working…

We’ve seen this play out firsthand with our Growth Investor stocks, too, as our High-Growth Investments Buy List soared 6.56% higher in April, thanks in part to positive quarterly results.

So far, this earnings season, we’ve had 29 Buy List companies post results, with 19 beating earnings estimates and only seven missing analysts’ forecasts. Our average earnings surprise is 18%.

And I suspect that wave after wave of positive results will continue to drive our Growth Investor stocks higher in the upcoming weeks.

Congrats to all the Growth Investor subscribers out there navigating this complex market. If you haven’t checked the portfolio recently, click here to sign in. And if you’d like to learn about joining Louis in Growth Investor, click here.

Have a good evening,

Jeff Remsburg



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From Buffett to Big Tech: Finding the Right “Sound” in Energy Investing


Hello, Reader.

On Saturday, 94-year-old Warren Buffett announced that he will retire as the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK-A, B) at the end of this year.

In his remarks at his company’s annual shareholder meeting, the legendary investor shared some well-earned insights… one of those being the importance of finding the right “sound.”

While Buffett was referring to finding the right career, the value of discovering a good fit, of something that just works, can be applied to, well, anything…

Like data centers and nuclear energy.

Now, artificial intelligence relies on data centers to handle its computational needs. AI requires immense amounts of processing power for training and running large language models (LLMs), and data centers provide this power.

But there’s a problem: As we get further and further down the Road to AGI, the technology demands such spectacular volumes of electric power that existing sources are not able to provide enough. During the last three years alone, the combined electricity consumption of data center giants like Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), Meta Platforms Inc. (META), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), and Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) soared more than 80%.

That explosive growth is certain to continue.

So, the companies that are building AI data centers need to find the right “sound” to fulfill their energy needs. And when it comes to powering the data centers that support AI, one “sound” – nuclear energy – has no equal.

So, in today’s Smart Money, I’ll break down how Big Tech’s energy needs are reviving the nuclear industry…

Then, I’ll share one specific way you can capitalize on its future.

Let’s dive in…

Power to the… Tech Companies

Earlier today, nuclear developer Elementl Power said that has signed an agreement with Google to develop three sites for advanced reactors.

Google is committing funding for the early-stage development of the sites, the locations of which remain unknown. Each site will generate at least 600 megawatts of power capacity, and Google will be able to buy the power once the sites are up and running.

“Our collaboration with Elementl Power enhances our ability to move at the speed required to meet this moment of AI and American innovation,” said Amanda Peterson Corio, the global head of data center energy at Google.

This isn’t Google and Alphabet’s first nuclear deal. Back in October, the company announced it will purchase power from Kairos Power, a developer of “small modular reactors.”

This deal was significant because small modular reactors (SMRs) promise to reduce the cost of building new nuclear plants.

An SMR is a type of advanced nuclear reactor that can produce electricity. It has a smaller footprint and can be constructed faster than traditional reactors. They are about a third the size of the average reactors in the current U.S. fleet, with a power capacity of 300 megawatts or less – which could power more than 200,000 U.S. households.

As such, SMRs could revitalize nuclear as a vital power source needed for the rise of AI (and electric vehicles and automated factories and warehouses).

Around the same time that Google inked its deal with Kairos, Amazon announced that Amazon Web Services (AWS) – its cloud computing platform – is set to invest more than $500 million in nuclear power.

AWS signed an agreement with Dominion Energy Inc. (D), Virginia’s top utility company, to explore the development of an SMR near Dominion’s North Anna Nuclear Generating Station.

And in September, Microsoft made a deal with Constellation Energy Corp. (CEG) to restart a reactor at the infamous Three Mile Island nuclear facility in Pennsylvania.

So, it’s clear that as the tech giants need to feed the Road to AGI’s growing appetite for electric power, they are investing directly in nuclear power.

And this is where the profit opportunity comes in…

Capitalizing on the Right “Sound”

This new high-profile demand for nuclear power from Big Tech and, sooner than we think, AGI could accelerate growth and profitability in the uranium industry.

To capitalize on that potential, I recommend investing in what’s turning into one of the “soundest” plays in the stock market: the uranium sector.

Today, the U.S. heavily relies on uranium imports for its nuclear power plants, mainly from Canada, Kazakhstan, and Russia. Of course, under the Trump administration’s tariff regime, needed imports from other countries can be worrisome.

However, uranium is currently exempt from the tariffs imposed by the U.S. on imports from Canada.

Now, it’s true that the current $67.73 spot price for uranium is down from its 2024 high of $89, according to Cameco Corp. (CCJ), one of the world’s largest uranium producers. But this number is still significantly higher than the 2023, 2022, and 2021 spot prices of $52.93, $53, and $28.90, respectively.

And the long-term uranium prices remain steady, holding at the $80 level. This is a possible indicator of the market’s long-term potential.

So, the underlying structural case for uranium remains strong. As we head down the Road to AGI, that’s supported by the growing global demand for data centers and, thereby, nuclear energy.

That is why I currently recommend a unique energy play to my Fry’s Investment Report members that stands to benefit directly from the growth of AI and its need for power.

To get the name and ticker symbol of that stock, learn how to become a member of Fry’s Investment Report by clicking here.

Regards,

Eric Fry

P.S. Earlier this afternoon, the Federal Reserve held rates steady… and joined me in warning of uncertainty. Tomorrow, we’ll bring you a video conversation between InvestorPlace Senior Analyst Louis Navellier and our Editor in Chief, Luis Hernandez, in which they’ll talk about the Fed’s decision… what it might mean for the stock market and the economy… and what comes next. Watch for it tomorrow afternoon.



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The Federal Reserve’s Next Move: Why a $7 Trillion Market Shock Is in the Cards


Today, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve as Americans await the central bank’s latest interest rate decision. 

We think that some big market moves are in store – and that a $7 trillion panic could hit stocks as soon as this afternoon. But it won’t be the decision itself that sparks the stampede. 

That’s because everyone already knows what the Fed will say: ‘We’re staying the course.’ The central bank is widely expected to hold interest rates steady. No hikes or cuts; no surprises. And the press release? Probably just a slightly revised version of March’s memo, with all the same hedged language we’ve come to expect from Powell & Co. Nothing shocking there, either. 

But that doesn’t mean that today’s Fed meeting won’t ignite a fire on Wall Street. 

In fact, we believe it could set the stage for a historic rally in what we’re calling the “MAGA 7” (“Make AI Great in America”) – seven stocks sitting squarely at the intersection of Trump-era policy priorities and the unstoppable AI revolution.

But if today’s interest rate decision is likely to be a nonevent, what would cause such major shockwaves to ripple through the market?

The post-announcement press conference. 

Will the Fed Signal a Rate Cut Today?

When Board Chair Jerome Powell takes to the mic later today, he’ll offer clues on what the Federal Reserve plans to do at its next meeting, in June. And that’s when he could unleash a new wave of market volatility.

Why? Because with the data turning sour, it’s becoming clear that the U.S. economy will soon need help.

For one thing, the labor market is showing signs of growing weakness. Though the national unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2% in April, it is moderately higher than January 2023’s 3.4% low. As of the week ended April 26, initial weekly jobless claims have risen to 241,000, the highest in two months. And continuing claims have jumped to 1.9 million, their highest since November 2021. 

Additionally, consumer confidence – considered the bedrock of American economic optimism – has cratered to levels we haven’t seen in years. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index has fallen to 86, its lowest reading since May 2020. And its expectations index, which reflects consumers’ short-term outlook, dropped to 54.4 – the lowest since October 2011. 

We’re also seeing a notable shift in consumer spending… which drives about 70% of U.S. GDP. While things don’t seem dire (yet), data from Fiserv’s Small Business Index shows that consumers are prioritizing essential goods and services as discretionary spending slows. 

Now companies across the board are beginning to sound the alarm. McDonald’s (MCD), Marriott (MAR), Amazon (AMZN), Starbucks (SBUX), and more have all warned about slowing demand alongside their recent earnings results.

This economy is sick. Rate cuts are the remedy. And whether we get those rate cuts or not depends on what Powell says this afternoon.



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AI, Tax Cuts, and Rate Cuts; A Perfect Storm for Stocks


The bull case as we head toward summer … datacenter demand continues growing … why the oil market has been sliding … all eyes on the Fed tomorrow

As I write near lunch, the market appears to be holding its breath, waiting for tomorrow’s Federal Reserve policy announcement and subsequent remarks from Chairman Jerome Powell.

What Powell says, or doesn’t say, will likely determine near-term market direction.

We’ll report on the outcome in tomorrow’s Digest; but in the meantime, some of our analysts are already making their bull case as we look toward the summer.

Let’s jump to our hypergrowth expert Luke Lango and his recent Daily Notes in Early Stage Investor:

We think [the recent rally] is just getting started.

Our forecast calls for a series of bullish catalysts to unfold over the next few months:

  • In May: Expect trade deals with allies like India, Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam.
  • In June: Look for a dovish pivot from the Fed thanks to those trade deals easing reinflation fears, culminating in a rate cut at their June meeting.
  • Late June to Early July: A framework for a U.S.-China trade agreement.
  • Early July: Passage of a major tax cut package in D.C.
  • July to August: A blowout earnings season, as Q2 results benefit from rebounding macro clarity (trade deals, rate cuts, tax cuts, etc).

That’s a packed pipeline of positive news.

If those dominos fall into place — and we believe they will — we’ll have all the ingredients for a multi-month stock market melt-up.

But what about the tariff war and higher consumer prices that might eventually weigh on earnings and corporate hirings? Is there any credible recession risk?

Luke believes those risks are overstated. He points to last week’s payroll report in which the U.S. economy added 177,000 jobs in April, handily beating expectations for 138,000. But what he found even more encouraging was wage growth.

Back to Luke:

Wages rose 3.8% in April, while inflation (as measured by the Cleveland Fed) ran at just 2.3% for the month.

That puts real wage growth at +1.5% — and historically, when wages outpace inflation, recessions just don’t happen.

Turning to the Fed, while Luke doesn’t expect a cut at tomorrow’s FOMC meeting, he believes the set-up for a June cut remains on the table. If we get that set-up, a market rally is in the cards.

Luke is also bullish on a coming tax cut package that includes extensions and expansions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, potentially, as early as July.

Back to Luke:

[Such a tax package could include] full expensing, lower corporate rates, and more incentives for domestic growth.

Just like in 2017, that could ignite a powerful rally.

Put it altogether and Luke is unequivocally bullish.

As to what he’s buying today in preparation for a summer rally, no surprises here: top-tier AI-stocks – specifically, “physical AI” leaders.

Last week, Luke held a live event that detailed today’s buying opportunity in robotics and bleeding-edge AI. If you missed it, you can catch a free replay here.

Here’s Luke’s bottom-line:

The market’s recent win streak was more than a bounce. It was the early phase of what we believe could be a historic summer rally… and the clock is ticking.

That’s exactly why I recently hosted an urgent market briefing, breaking down everything you need to know about what’s to come over the next few months, including the names and ticker symbols of seven AI stocks that could be the biggest winners of this buying panic.

If you haven’t watched it yet, here’s your chance.

AI continues to prove it’s a market juggernaut

How do we power AI?

As we’ve highlighted repeatedly in the Digest, AI consumes enormous volumes of energy. This demand will only increase as AI continues to integrate seamlessly with our day-to-day lives. We’ve urged investors to get exposure to the broad AI datacenter ecosystem that powers this demand.

Now, in recent months, some analysts suggested that datacenter demand was waning. Expectations were too high. We’d gotten ahead of ourselves.

Not so much. Here’s CNBC from last week:

Data center demand is not slowing down in the world’s largest market centered in northern Virginia, executives at Dominion Energy said Thursday.

Dominion provides electricity in Loudoun County, nicknamed “Data Center Alley” because it hosts the largest cluster of data centers in the world. The utility works closely with the Big Tech companies that are investing tens of billions of dollars in data centers as they train artificial intelligence models.

“We have not observed any evidence of slowing demand from data center customers across our service area,” Dominion’s chief financial officer, Steven Ridge, told analysts on the company’s first-quarter earnings call…

Data center customers have not paused spending on new projects in Dominion’s service area and they have not shown any concerns about economic uncertainty, Dominion CEO Robert Blue said.

And here’s research shop Bespoke last week on X:

Data center investment added a full percentage point to GDP in Q1; a record.

Source: Bespoke

Next up, there’s Jonathan Gray, CEO of private equity giant Blackstone. Yesterday, he said that he sees huge demand coming for AI datacenters.

From Gray:

I think this trend is powerful. I think it will continue…

Overall, we still see a ton of demand.

And let’s not forget Microsoft’s earnings announcement last week.

For this, let’s go to the May issue of AI Revolution. This is our AI-themed research project from InvestorPlace’s three leading analysts: Eric Fry, Louis Navellier, and Luke Lango. Together they created an AI model portfolio that represent the “best in class” stocks for the AI Revolution.

From their latest issue:

Microsoft has continued its heavy investments in AI infrastructure this quarter. During the earnings call, [Microsoft CEO] Nadella said that the company opened data centers in 10 countries on four continents.

And earlier this year, the CEO said that Microsoft plans to spend $80 billion in fiscal 2025 on construction of data centers designated for AI workloads.

AI isn’t going away…which means datacenter demand isn’t going away. Invest accordingly.

The oil market continues to crash

Yesterday, the price of West Texas Intermediate Crude (the U.S. benchmark) fell below $56.00. Brent crude (the European benchmark) also cracked into the $50s. Overall, oil prices have fallen roughly 20% this year.

Why?

  1. Fears of a global economic slowdown lowering demand
  2. OPEC+ waging war on oil-producing countries that have been cheating on production

On that second point, let’s jump to Bloomberg:

Saturday’s decision [from Saudi Arabia] to push more output into an already-cratering oil market suggests Riyadh is doubling down on a radical strategy shift: after spending much of the past decade curtailing output to shore up the market, it’s now willing to drive down prices as it seeks to punish members who have cheated on their quotas…

[The supply increase] threatens to stoke fears of a price war within the cartel and squeeze the state budgets of producers including the Saudis themselves.

The targets of Saudi Arabia’s supply acceleration are primarily Kazakhstan and Iraq. Kazakhstan in particular has been publicly defiant of OPEC+’s attempted restrictions, stating that its oil revenues are needed to support its population.

But this morning, Bloomberg reported that Kazakhstan is considering options to comply with OPEC+ production cuts. Prices will slide further if they don’t.

Back to Bloomberg:

Russia, which jointly leads OPEC+, cautioned attendees that it — alongside the Saudis and the United Arab Emirates — has considerable unused production capacity to deploy, and urged fellow members to respect their quotas.

So, what’s the action step?

If you’re already holding oil stocks, brace yourself. Lower prices aren’t off the table, despite today’s relief rally (oil is up nearly 4% as I write).

This is why legendary investor Louis Navellier recently recommended his Growth Investor subscribers sell their position in Exxon (XOM).

Instead, Louis has been zeroing in on emerging opportunities in AI. I won’t get into those details today, but his latest research tackles how AI is no longer growing at a steady pace. It’s growing at a speed we humans can barely wrap our heads around – a speed scientists call “double exponential.” This has significant investing implications. You can check Louis’ free research video on the subject here.

If you’re not holding oil stocks but have been watching from the sidelines, get your dry powder ready and consider a “scaling in” process.

No one knows when or where oil will bottom, but prices just hit four-year lows – which means stock prices are likely in for more pressure. But that’s great news for longer-term investors.

Tying this back to AI, don’t forget why the future is bright for fossil fuels – in this case, natural gas.

Let’s return to Blackstone’s CEO Jonathan Gray. From CNBC:

[Gray] believes the electricity needs of this data center growth will be met, though considering all sources of power such as renewables and natural gas is imperative.

“It’s a global issue. I mean, everywhere there are constraints,” he said about electricity demand.

“Big companies are recognizing this, and I think the investments will come, and importantly, the government recognizes it, and so it is the gating factor on this sort of technological revolution we’re on.”

Remember, with our inability to perfectly time the bottom, the wiser question is usually: “Is today’s price one that’s likely to make me a solid return in the future?”

For patient investors, we believe the answer is a resounding “yes.”

Finally, all eyes are on tomorrow…

As noted earlier, tomorrow, the Federal Reserve concludes its May FOMC meeting.

While traders aren’t anticipating the Fed to cut rates, everyone will be watching Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in his live press conference for clues about June.

If Powell sounds dovish, hinting at a June cut, we could be in for fireworks in the market.

We’ll report back.

Have a good evening,

Jeff Remsburg



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Why the Fed Could Trigger a Sell Off on Wednesday…


If the Fed knows what’s good for them, they will cut rates…

The stock market has had a nice run for the past couple of weeks. But things are essentially on “hold” right now.

That’s because Wall Street is waiting anxiously for the Federal Reserve’s key interest rate decision after its May Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this week.

Now, I plan to discuss the details of that decision in a Market 360 later this week. But the reality is that there isn’t any big mystery about the Fed’s next key interest rate decision. In fact, the futures market is telling us there’s a greater than 95% probability of no rate cut. That’s because everybody has concluded that the Fed is anticipating inflation, which has not yet materialized.

Instead, it’s important to note that Wall Street will be looking for dovish language in its policy statement – as well as in Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference.

Meanwhile, recent economic data certainly gives our central bank plenty of reasons to consider a cut. Specifically…

  • The most recent Beige Book survey stated that the outlook in several regions of the U.S. has worsened considerably under the cloud of economic uncertainty – particularly tariffs.
  • The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 86 in April, down from 93.9 in March. This is the fifth-straight decline.
  • The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing index dropped to 48.7 in April, down from 49 in March. This was the second-straight monthly decline after being above 50 (expansion) in January and February.
  • The Commerce Department’s preliminary estimates for first-quarter GDP showed an annual contraction of 0.3%, with a soaring trade deficit subtracting a whopping 4.8% from GDP calculations.
  • The Labor Department announced 177,000 jobs were created in April, much stronger than expectations for 133,000 jobs. February and March payrolls, though, were revised lower by a cumulative 58,000 jobs. And earnings only rose 0.2%, so wage growth is fizzling.

I should add that European Central Bank (ECB) officials have hinted at more key interest rate cuts in the near term. Other global central banks are expected to follow suit.

Also, as I mentioned in last Saturday’s Market 360, Treasury yields have moderated. So, the Fed needs to cut at least twice to get aligned with the two-year Treasury rate. I predict the 10-year Treasury yield will fall, and that could increase pressure on the Fed to cut rates.



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Why You Should Take Profits Now … Before the Next Leg Down


Checking in with our resident bear … why this rally is running out of steam … will Wednesday bring a rate cut? … another week of no trade deals … when will Wall Street demand more?

If you’re a trader, it’s time to consider taking some profits off the table…but then also start looking for the next opportunity to buy into a rebound.

That’s the broad takeaway from master trader Jeff Clark.

As we’ve been profiling here in the Digest, Jeff believes we’ve begun a bear market that still has a long way to fall.

He views the recent market strength as a bear-market rally that’s nearing its top. That means shorter-term traders should consider taking profits and/or getting short in preparation for the next leg lower.

To unpack this, let’s rewind to Jeff’s prediction from nearly a month ago

First, for newer Digest readers, Jeff is a legendary trader with more than four decades of experience. In his service, Jeff Clark Trader, he uses a suite of indicators and charting techniques to profitably trade the markets regardless of direction – up, down, or sideways.

Today, Jeff believes we’ve entered a bear market and have already hit the high of the year. In early April, he outlined what he sees coming:

Ultimately, I think where we’re headed, if this is truly a bear market as I think it is, is the same level as late-2023 when we were somewhere around the 4,150 level or 4,100 level (for the S&P).

I think we’re going to have a generational buying opportunity this year, not unlike what we saw back in 2008, where stocks traded just so unbelievably low that you had some incredible opportunities to buy.

That 4,100 to 4,150 level represents a drop of roughly 27% based on where the S&P trades as of this Monday morning.

Jeff plans to trade the drawdown in two ways:

  1. Ride oversold rips higher (even as the broader trend is “down”),
  2. Use profits from those trades to take advantage of that “generational buying opportunity” when the dust settles.

Here he is with the timing of that eventual buy-and-hold moment:

The real opportunity to buy I think is probably going to wind up sometime in October, November.

We can trade between now and then, but…like oftentimes happens, you get that final washout in October or November, and that’ll give us a really good opportunity to jump in and put some capital to work at super depressed prices.

Why Jeff believes our latest rally is running out of steam

Toward the end of April, as the market surged, I asked Jeff if his bearish forecast had changed amidst all the buying.

It hadn’t.

He was sticking by his forecast for a relief rally that, ultimately, would fizzle and turn into a new leg lower. Sell the dip, buy the ensuing rip. Rinse and repeat.

Here was his prediction at that time:

Stocks are likely headed higher in the short term…

The closer the S&P gets to 5,750 the better the odds for adding short exposure.

On Friday, the S&P briefly hit 5,700, not far from Jeff’s “add short exposure” line in the sand.

Let’s jump to his update last Thursday:

Look at this chart of the S&P…

Chart showing how Jeff Clark views the S&P today along with its technical indicators

Source: StockCharts.com

Look at the action in early April and notice how the momentum indicators at the bottom of the chart do NOT show any positive divergence. The MACD, RSI, and CCI indicators made lower lows right along with the S&P.

I stated at the time conditions were oversold enough to justify a bounce, but the purpose of that bounce would be to pull the momentum indicators far enough off the bottom that they’d create positive divergence on the next decline in the S&P.

This current bounce has done its job.

The S&P 500 is challenging its 50 and 200-day moving averages as resistance. The momentum indicators are back into neutral territory. And they’re high enough now to not make new lows if the S&P dips back below its early-April low.

Ultimately, this should provide a good setup for a summertime rally. But first, we should be prepared for a retest of the early-April low.

This led Jeff to add some short exposure last week, noting “the closer the S&P gets to its 200-day MA at 5,750, the better the risk/reward setup for the trade.”

Did Friday’s rally derail Jeff’s bearish forecast?

Stocks posted strong gains on Friday after a solid jobs report as well as positive news on the trade war front related to China.

Here’s Jeff’s take from Friday afternoon:

Overbought conditions are getting more overbought.

But just as it was proven to be a bad idea to sell into oversold conditions in early April – when the market kept falling everyday – it should also prove to be a bad idea to buy into the market after nine straight up days.

We are witnessing a buying panic.

Jeff recommends traders watch the VIX and VIX options for the early warnings sign of when bullish momentum turns bearish.

If the VIX starts to rally while stocks continue climbing, that’s a red flag. And if VIX calls begin trading at a large premium to VIX puts, Jeff says a reversal could be fast approaching.

To be clear, Jeff isn’t calling for a knife-edge freefall. He envisions more of a stairstep lower, with rallies that he plans to trade.

On that note, here’s his latest update from this morning:

At a minimum, we’re overdue for at least a brief pullback. At worst, we could see a retest of last month’s lows…

I will be looking to add long exposure into weakness. But I’m not in a hurry to do so. We likely have several days of falling stock prices in front of us…

Nobody is expecting the Fed to do anything. But the market is likely to be on edge between now and after Wednesday’s announcement.

Speaking of the Fed…

The Federal Reserve concludes its May FOMC meeting this Wednesday. In recent weeks, there’s been plenty of speculation about the Fed’s rate cut policy and/or signaling to the market.

On one hand, there’s the group that believes the Fed should cut interest rates. Legendary investor Louis Navellier falls into this camp. Here he is from last week:

We’re going to get a Fed rate cut in May.

If we don’t, [the Fed members are] clinically insane – they’re not looking at the data. And the cause for them to cut will get louder and louder cause market rates will have collapsed.

On the other hand, traders put majority odds on the likelihood that the Fed will maintain the current target rate on Wednesday. Jeff is of this opinion.

The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows that traders are putting a 99.0% probability on the Fed holding rates steady on Wednesday.

Here’s Jeff, in agreement:

A stronger than expected jobs report [on Friday] has prompted a rally…

Of course, there’s now zero chance of a rate cut next week when the FOMC meets. And the odds of a June cut are likely to be pared back following this jobs report.

To Jeff’s point about June, last Thursday, traders put a 55% probability on a quarter-point cut in June. But following the strong payrolls report on Friday, those odds have dropped to 30%.

Keep in mind, one month ago, the probability that we’d have at least one rate-cut in June was 94.5%. The odds of two rate cuts stood at 30.6%.

So, why isn’t the market collapsing as the odds of rate cuts fall?

After all, in recent months, much of the bull case anchored on lower rates helping remove pressure on stock valuations and reduce economic pressure on Main Street Americans.

Here’s Jeff’s explanation:

The market no longer seems to be moving on rate-cut expectations.

Instead, investors are breathing a sigh of relief that recession clouds are parting a bit.

Will trade war progress help the U.S. skirt a recession?

Yesterday a friend who’s a guitar collector told me about a conversation he had with the owner of a small guitar shop. Tariffs on China are about to raise the wholesale cost of one of his most popular guitar models from about $1,000 to $2,400.

As a result, the manufacturer is considering no longer selling into the U.S. for the time being. The small-business owner is worried about the impact on his business.

Are we on the cusp of a wave of similar stories if signed trade deals don’t begin to materialize soon?

Last Tuesday, I scrambled to rewrite the introduction of our Digest before our publishing deadline due to a late-breaking headline that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick had reached a trade agreement with an unspecified country.

Here was Lutnick:

I have a deal done, done, done, done, but I need to wait for their prime minister and their parliament to give its approval, which I expect shortly.

Since then, it’s been crickets.

This has me wondering about Lutnick’s definitions of “done” and “shortly.”

First, if a prime minister and parliament have yet to approve a trade deal (meaning the trade negotiator speaking with Lutnick didn’t have ultimate, final approval), then “done” was the wrong word choice.

But let’s say I’m nitpicking, and it truly was a matter of “dotting I’s” and “crossing T’s.” Well, that’s where “shortly” would have come into play, proving me wrong within a day or two after such an announcement.

But here we are, nearly a week later and there’s been no follow-through.

Now, speculation is that Lutnick was referencing India. And there is positive news this morning on the trade front with India. From Bloomberg:

India has proposed zero tariffs on steel, auto components and pharmaceuticals on a reciprocal basis up to a certain quantity of imports in its trade negotiations with the US, people familiar with the matter said…

The offer was made by Indian trade officials visiting Washington late last month to expedite negotiations on a bilateral trade deal expected by fall this year, the people said.

The two nations are prioritizing certain sectors to strike an early trade deal before the end of the 90-day pause on US President Donald Trump’s tit-for-tat tariffs, the people said.

But notice the timing – “the offer was made by Indian trade officials visiting Washington late last month.”

If Lutnick was referencing India as is speculated, it would make sense. The timing of his enthusiasm last week matches the timing of this Indian trade proposal.

But even if that’s the case, we’re still back to no signed deal, even though it was allegedly “done, done, done, done.”

If we look beyond headlines touting “progress,” where are we with trade deals?

This is an important question since much of the market’s blistering rally in recent weeks has been predicated on the notion that deals are imminent.

Here’s Politico from week:

White House officials have boasted that more than a dozen countries have put offers “on the table” to avoid the biting tariffs scheduled to kick in in just over two months — a sign President Donald Trump’s risky trade gambit is paying off.

But the documents other countries have submitted to the White House are far from final offers, according to a dozen foreign diplomats and three officials, granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive conversations.

Rather, they are preliminary outlines of what their governments are willing to discuss in the trade talks, something the Trump administration has made a prerequisite for pursuing any further negotiations.

Some trading partners are balking at proposing even an outline of their terms before they get more guidance from the U.S. side on what Trump is seeking from the talks.

“They are hesitant to negotiate against themselves,” said one industry official, briefed on plans by foreign countries. 

In our 4/25 Digest, I wrote:

The cannonball back into the market represents a wager from investors. They’re putting their chips on one specific outcome…

Trade deals will be announced soon, and they’ll be economically beneficial – or at a minimum, not overly destructive.

As with all wagers, there’s risk. In this case, there are two potential tripwires:

  • The deals don’t actually materialize
  • The deals that do materialize disappoint Wall Street

Lutnick’s pump-fake and Politico’s article aren’t making me feel any better about the bet that investors are making today.

Now, yesterday, President Trump said we could see finished deals this week.

I’d be thrilled to have to frantically rewrite a Digest just before we publish due to a late-breaking headline about an actual trade deal. But so far, all we have are headlines touting “progress.”

At some point, that won’t be enough for Wall Street. And what will happen then?

Well, that brings us full circle to Jeff Clark, his bear market prediction, and the recommendation to take some profits off the table.

Have a good evening,

Jeff Remsburg



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Sell in May? Not So Fast – Big Moves Ahead This Week!


After the major indices experienced their worst drops in years in the beginning of April, they’ve since bounced back strongly. In fact, the S&P 500 and Dow recorded gains nine days in a row – the first time the S&P 500 has rallied for nine consecutive days in 20 years.

The fact is a handful of key economic reports, combined with signs of potential progress on tariffs, as well as a number of solid earnings reports, all gave Wall Street reason to cheer.

But this week, it will be all about the Federal Reserve. Tuesday kicks off the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, and an interest rate decision is expected on Wednesday.

Right now, the CME FedWatch Tool shows a 96.9% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates the same. Personally, I think the Fed is clinically insane if they don’t cut interest rates on Wednesday. (I’ve explained why in previous Market 360 articles here and here.) And if they don’t, it tells me they aren’t looking at the data. Regardless, I’m predicting four rate cuts this year – largely due to the global collapse in interest rates in Europe.

Now, given all of the uncertainty, not to mention the volatility, you may be wondering whether you should practice the old saying and, “Sell in May and go away.”

So, in this week’s episode of Navellier Market Buzz, I’ll explain what that means – and why I think that’s bad advice. We’ll also preview some key economic reports to watch this week, along with some major companies that are set to announce. Plus, I will answer a couple of questions from subscribers, including one about Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI).

Click the image below to watch now!

If you like what you saw, don’t forget to subscribe to my YouTube channel here so you can be notified when I upload a new video. You can also submit any questions you have so they can be featured in the next episode!

A New Economic Shift – How You Can Prepare

As I said, this week is all about the Fed. But many don’t realize that there is another economic shift happening behind the scenes, one that is unlike anything I’ve seen in my four decades on Wall Street.

I call it The Economic Singularity.

We’re talking about an economic transformation so profound it could create explosive wealth for those who understand it. But for those that don’t, it could bring devastating financial consequences. 

I don’t say this to scare you, folks. In fact, I want to make sure you know exactly what’s coming and how you can prepare for it the right way.

That’s why I’ve prepared this new video to explain why this matters and what you can do to stay safe in this economic shift that could reshape America’s financial landscape as we know it.

Click here to watch my special presentation now.

Sincerely,

An image of a cursive signature in black text.An image of a cursive signature in black text.

Louis Navellier

Editor, Market 360

The Editor hereby discloses that as of the date of this email, the Editor, directly or indirectly, owns the following securities that are the subject of the commentary, analysis, opinions, advice, or recommendations in, or which are otherwise mentioned in, the essay set forth below:

Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI)



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Why You’ll Want to Get on This “Brown Bag” Buy… Quickly


InvestorPlace – Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips

If there’s one thing that we Americans appreciate, it’s a good deal. And I have found a deal on a company that has become a major player in many facets of AI technologies. This company is a leading supplier of cutting-edge computer processors… and one of my recommendations at Fry’s Investment Report.

The post Why You’ll Want to Get on This “Brown Bag” Buy… Quickly appeared first on InvestorPlace.



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4 Stocks to Buy for a Potential “Summer Panic” 


Tom Yeung here with your Sunday Digest

Last month, I wrote about five stocks to “buy the dip.” Our quantitative systems signaled April’s selloff had gone too far and that low prices would be enough to trigger a market rally. 

Since then, these five firms have performed splendidly, largely outperforming the S&P 500’s 8% rise. 

  • Salesforce Inc. (CRM) +16% 
  • Akamai Technologies Inc. (AKAM) +13% 
  • Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) +16% 
  • Moderna Inc. (MRNA) +6% 
  • Celanese Corp. (CE) +13% 

InvestorPlace Senior Analyst Luke Lango believes this is just the start.  

He predicts a major event on May 7 will trigger a flood of cash – as much as $7 trillion – to rush back into U.S. stocks. It’s a catalyst that could change the entire market dynamic and create a new summer “panic” of the sort not seen since 1997. 

This is why he held a special 2025 Summer Panic Summit on Thursday. At this event, Luke explained why he believes this catalyst on May 7 will be a game-changer. Plus, he revealed a new set of stocks that he believes are primed to lead the next wave of growth. (You can watch a replay of the event here.)  

Now, I can’t tell you what this catalyst is. You’ll have to see it for yourself in Luke’s special presentation. But if this panic buying he describes does take off, several of my top long-term picks are certain to benefit.  

Let’s revisit two of them today – and a new one as well… 

The Leveraged Play 

The first is Sabre Corp. (SABR), one of the three firms that run the world’s Global Distribution System (GDS) for hotels and flights. Virtually all travel agents and online booking systems use GDS to book flights since it’s the only platform with real-time data on available seats, rooms, and prices. That means industry profits are generally stable and very high. (Even Alphabet Inc. [GOOGL] failed to create a rival system and now uses Sabre to power Google Flights.) 

That’s why private equity decided to take Sabre off the public markets in 2007. They saw a cash cow that could be loaded with debt to make large profits even bigger. And it worked, at least in the short run.  

Sabre returned to public markets in 2014 with 50% higher net income, and the stock surged another 70% the following year as profits continued to climb. 

Then, two things happened. 

  • Covid-19. The once-in-a-century pandemic brought air travel to a near standstill, slashing Sabre’s revenues and making debts impossible to service. 
  • Rising rates. The following year, the U.S. Federal Reserve began hiking interest rates to stave off inflation, making it harder for Sabre to pay off existing debts and roll them into new deals. 

That crushed Sabre’s share price, which has fallen 90% since early 2020. Its debts are now worth almost six times more than its equity… a situation usually associated with near-bankrupt companies. 

But if Luke’s calculations are right, things could soon turn around for this equity “stub.” 

In fact, since the company is so financially leveraged, a 10% increase in enterprise value will translate into a 58% increase in share price. 

That makes Sabre an incredible “option-like” play. In the worst case, the stock goes to zero… but in the best case, SABR shares could rise 2X… 5X… or even 10X.  

The Real Estate Kings 

The May 7 catalyst will also be felt among real estate companies that rely on more traditional debt financing. 

My two favorites are on opposite ends of the risk spectrum. I would recommend both as complements. 

  • Realty Income Corp. (O). This real estate investment trust (REIT) is arguably the most conservative of its kind. Leases are made on a “triple net” basis, meaning tenants are responsible for almost all costs, and the company attracts blue-chip tenants by offering minimal rent increases. Its dividend is paid monthly and sits at a stunningly high 5.6%. 
  • Digital Realty Trust Inc. (DLR). Meanwhile, DLR is one of the most aggressive REITs thanks to its single-minded pursuit of growth in AI data centers. Gross income more than doubled to $2.9 billion in 2024, and analysts expect another 50% surge to $4.5 billion by 2027. Cloud computing firms like Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) are still starved for computing power, and Digital Realty has grown as quickly as possible to service that need. Dividends are lower at 3% to reflect this potential. 

These two firms are well run. Realty Income has played the long game by focusing on grocery stores (10% of its portfolio), convenience stores (9%), non-retail stores  (i.e., industrial and services) (21%), and other businesses resistant to e-commerce competition.  

On its part, Digital Realty realized early on that cloud computing customers would need dense colocation data centers (where powered, connected warehouse space is rented out to firms that bring their own servers) and quickly moved to offer that service. 

That means both firms should see a surge in buying interest on a May 7 catalyst. Despite their differences, these REITs are economically sensitive firms. And if Luke is right, a summer panic could send these types of companies soaring.  

The Healthcare Acquirer 

Finally, I’m adding a new pick to my top list: 

Biogen Inc. (BIIB)

This high-quality biotech firm was created in 2003 in a mega-merger of Biogen and automation company Idec. Shares rose as much as 1,200% through the biotech boom of the mid-2010s as blockbusters like cancer drug Rituxan and MS therapy Avonex came onto the market. Biogen also proved reasonably adept at acquiring and partnering with other biotech firms, though a 2019 acquisition of Nightstar did end with two clinical failures. 

Challenges began to mount after 2023 on rising research costs and high interest rates. Suddenly, new therapies became far more expensive to finance. A lackluster launch of Alzheimer’s drug Leqembi also spooked investors. So did recent staffing cuts at the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), which will increase the time and barriers for new drug approvals. 

Biogen’s stock has dropped 60% over the past two years and trades at 8X forward earnings, compared to a long-term average of 13.3X.  

The May 7 catalyst could change part of that equation. 

This summer, we could see investors return to this beat-up stock whose forward price-earnings ratio now looks more like an automaker’s than a top-tier biotech’s. Biogen’s pipeline and several new launches look reasonably strong. Recently approved drugs like Skyclarys, used in neurology, and Zurzuvae, for postpartum depression, should reduce the impact of expiring drugs and Leqembi’s slower-than-expected success.  

It’s also worth noting that large biotechs like Biogen have significant marketing and production scale that make them attractive partners, allowing them to snap up promising smaller firms at a discount. 

Of course, many of Biogen’s challenges will remain. Biotech is an industry that generates enormous paydays and equally significant flops. I’m also not expecting a quick return to “normal” at the FDA. 

Still, if you had told me two years ago that Biogen would be on sale at 8X forward earnings, I wouldn’t have believed you. And now, it’s something worth taking advantage of. 

The Summer Panic of 1997 

In May 1997, the Asian Financial Crisis was getting started. Currency speculators were dumping the Thai baht, forcing that country’s central bank to defend their currency exchange rate with a dwindling supply of foreign reserves. By July, these reserves had run out, triggering a devaluation and market mayhem. It only took several months for the crisis to spread to South Korea, Hong Kong, and beyond. Asian stock markets collapsed. 

Yet, none of this affected the dot-com boom. Over the same period, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 20% to a new record as American investors began recognizing the promises of the internet. Retail investors were more panicked about missing out than with some faraway financial crisis. 

Luke Lango believes we’re approaching a new version of this two-sided “panic.” 

Today, bearish institutional investors are dumping tariff-impacted companies as global macro fears kick in. Shares of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) have dropped 38%, while those of shoe retailer Deckers Outdoor Corp. (DECK) have sunk 45%. 

Meanwhile, retail investors are aggressively buying the dip every chance they get. On April 3, individual investors bought $4.7 billion of equities following President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” selloff. And on Wednesday, a negative U.S. GDP report was quickly buried as these same mom-and-pop investors snapped up shares

That’s because there’s a lot of money sitting on the sidelines. And there are a lot of bullish investors waiting to buy up stock. 

This could come to a head on May 7, when Luke predicts an event will trigger a new cascade of retail buying. 

Understandably, everyone is focused on short-term moves in the midst of a fast-paced market. But there’s something bigger happening behind the scenes…  

For the full breakdown of this catalyst – and Luke’s blueprint for the summer – click here to check out his 2025 Summer Panic Summit.

Until next week, 

Tom Yeung 

Market Analyst, InvestorPlace.com 

Thomas Yeung is a market analyst and portfolio manager of the Omnia Portfolio, the highest-tier subscription at InvestorPlace. He is the former editor of Tom Yeung’s Profit & Protection, a free e-letter about investing to profit in good times and protecting gains during the bad.



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