Stocks Explode Higher on China Deal
A 90-day reprieve on nosebleed tariffs … where the new tariff numbers come in … additional outcomes of the negotiations … Trump signs a new executive order that could lower your prescription costs
In a massive, unexpected trade breakthrough, earlier today, the U.S. and China agreed to temporarily suspend the lion’s share of tariffs on each other’s products.
“Reciprocal” tariffs for both countries will fall from 125% to 10%. The U.S. will maintain its 20% tariff on Chinese imports related to fentanyl, so total tariffs on China clock in at 30%. China will lower its tariffs on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%.
Additionally, according to the White House, China will “suspend or remove the non-tariff countermeasures” it has imposed on the U.S. since early April.
The lower tariffs, which begins on Wednesday, will remain for 90 days as the two superpowers seek to negotiate what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent calls “a long-lasting and durable trade deal.”
Here are some highlights of the weekend’s trade talks…
Additional de-escalation:
Bessent told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that he expects the next few weeks will bring additional talks that forward the trade deal progress.
Importantly, it appears the worst is behind us. Bessent said that “What we have with the Chinese is a mechanism to avoid upward tariff pressure.”
Onshoring:
As we’ve highlighted here in the Digest, part of the Trump Administration’s motivation has been to shore up domestic manufacturing of key supply chains.
Bessent spoke to this point today, saying:
We do not want a generalized decoupling from China. But what we do want is a decoupling for strategic necessities, which we were unable to obtain during Covid and we realized that efficient supply chains were not resilient supply chains.
Coming negotiating points:
Bessent noted that the United States remains deeply concerned about the ongoing trade imbalance with China.
He pointed to China’s currency practices and government support for its manufacturing sector – factors that Washington views as significant contributors to the decline of American factory jobs.
These are some of the issues on the table during coming trade negotiations.
More trade:
This morning, President Trump said that China will “open itself up to American business.”
Here’s more from CNBC:
Trump offered few details about that development, but said it was “maybe the most important thing” to come out of the high-level trade talks between the two superpowers in Geneva, Switzerland, over the weekend.
We’re expecting to hear more about this over the coming days.
Fentanyl:
The talks didn’t focus solely on the trade imbalance. Fentanyl was a key issue – and Bessent trumpeted progress:
I think that we saw here in Geneva that the Chinese are now serious about assisting the U.S. in stopping the flow of precursor drugs.
The size and scope of this deal is a massive positive surprise, and markets are soaring
The 30% tariffs still in place on Chinese goods is large on an absolute basis. And that will need to be negotiated lower to sidestep the risk of inflationary pressures.
However, what the investment markets are focusing on this morning isn’t “30%” but rather, the dramatic reduction between “145%” and “30%.”
Remember, what moves Wall Street in the short term is any sort of “surprise.”
Whether it’s an unexpected earnings beat, a CEO stepping down, or in this case, shocking progress on a trade deal, “surprises” move prices. And Wall Street has certainly been taken by surprise.
For more, let’s go to legendary investor Louis Navellier from this morning’s Flash Alert in Growth Investor:
Wall Street is very happy that tensions are deescalating… We have this huge, huge relief rally now underway.
You’re seeing gold back off because gold was an oasis. You’re seeing the dollar resurge. Interest rates have meandered higher on the anticipation of strong economic news…
Enjoy the relief rally, folks.
Filling in some of the details, as I write Monday early afternoon, all three major indexes are up more than 2%. The Nasdaq leads the way, up 3.75%.
The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against a basket of foreign currencies, is up roughly 1.4% to $101.73. At the end of last month, it traded as low as $98.01.
Oil has jumped 2%. It’s back above $62 after having traded below $58 less than one week ago.
The 10-year Treasury yield has pushed seven basis points higher, now trading at 4.44%.
Finally, gold has pulled back more than 3%, now trading at $3,231. A “safe haven” asset is the last thing that investors want today.
Another huge headline this morning that could impact your pharma bill
President Trump is looking to lower the cost of pharmaceuticals for Americans.
Let’s go to The Wall Street Journal:
President Trump signed an executive order aimed at lowering the cost of prescription drugs, directing his administration to craft a policy that ties U.S. drug prices to what other countries pay.
The executive order seeks to institute a policy known as “Most Favored Nation,” whereby the U.S. government pays prices for drugs that are tied to the prices paid by other countries.
Many other countries pay lower prices for medications because their single-payer healthcare systems negotiate for deals.
Here’s President Trump:
Basically, what we’re doing is equalizing. American patients were effectively subsidizing socialist health-care systems.
We are going to pay the lowest price there is in the world. We will get whoever is paying the lowest price, that’s the price that we’re going to get.
Trump went on to suggest that the current system has the U.S. consumer shouldering the cost of research and development for Big Pharma because foreign governments negotiate down drug prices. Trump argues that this means, “American patients were effectively subsidizing socialist health-care systems.”
Now, tinkering with prices in the private sector is controversial – something that too often brings unintended economic consequences.
Big Pharma has been against the move, but to little avail. Here was Trump on Truth Social:
The Pharmaceutical/Drug Companies would say, for years, that it was Research and Development Costs, and that all of these costs were, and would be, for no reason whatsoever, borne by the ‘suckers’ of America, ALONE.
Campaign Contributions can do wonders, but not with me, and not with the Republican Party. We are going to do the right thing, something that the Democrats have fought for many years.
We’ll bring you more on the investment implications here as our experts chime in over the coming days.
For now, investors seem to be overlooking the potential negatives of this executive order as they cannonball back into stocks. For example, the VanEck Pharmaceutical ETF, PPH, is up 1.9% as I write.
Circling back to Louis, I’ll note that he’s recommended a Big Pharma play in Growth Investor – Eli Lilly and Co. It’s up nearly 2.5% on the day, while subscribers are sitting on gains of nearly 40% overall.
I’ll bring you Louis’ analysis of Trump’s executive order when he releases it. In the meantime, as he noted earlier, “enjoy the relief rally.”
Have a good evening,
Jeff Remsburg
