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Apple (AAPL) shares surged Friday, leading other Magnificent Seven members higher amid a broader market rebound to cap off a wild week fueled by tariff-driven volatility. 

Apple shares jumped 4% to close at $198.15, posting gains for a week that included three losing sessions and the stock’s best day since 1998.

Still, it has yet to fully recover from the hit taken since President Trump’s tariff announcement on April 2, on worries about escalating trade tensions with China, where Apple manufactures an estimated 90% of its products.  

The gains for Apple’s stock Friday came amid growing optimism the iPhone maker could win an exemption from the Trump administration’s tariffs. 

Mizuho analyst Jordan Klein reportedly told clients in a client note Friday that “90% of investors seem to believe Apple will get a tariff exemption,” pointing to the exemption Apple received in 2018 during President Trump’s first term.

CFRA Research analyst Angelo Zino said he now puts the odds of an Apple-specific exemption at 50%, up from 20%. 

The U.S. economy is in for higher inflation and slower growth as President Donald Trump’s trade war heats up, officials at the Federal Reserve said this week.

Central bankers are in the same boat as other experts: waiting to see how the trade wars unfold. Several Fed officials said they expect consumer prices to rise and economic growth to slow, worsening the outlook for both sides of the Fed’s “dual mandate” to keep inflation low and employment high.

Susan Collins, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, spoke with Yahoo! Finance Friday. She said she expects inflation of “well over 3%” this year. That would be a setback, considering the Fed’s goal is to get inflation to a 2% annual rate, as measured by core Personal Consumption Expenditures. Core PCE increased 2.8% over the year in February.

In a separate interview with the Financial Times, Collins said the central bank “would absolutely be prepared” to stabilize financial markets if they became disorderly. Stocks and bond prices have swung wildly in recent days in response to Trump’s steep tariffs and his subsequent announcement on Wednesday that he would pause most of them for 90 days.

Alberto Musalem, president of the St. Louis Fed, said the central bank could use its monetary policy to “lean against” tariff-driven price increases. Speaking at a bankers’ convention in Arkansas on Friday, Musalem said he was skeptical of the “textbook” view that the Fed should ignore tariff-driven price increases because they are, in theory, one-time events.

Musalem acknowledged high inflation and a slower economy would put the Fed in a “challenging” position.

The Federal Reserve’s main tool to fight inflation and keep the labor market afloat is changing the federal funds rate, which influences borrowing costs on all kinds of loans. The Fed can lower the rate to boost the economy with easy money, preventing unemployment. Or, it can raise the rate to reduce borrowing and inflation by allowing supply and demand to rebalance.

But it can’t do both at the same time. The Fed has kept its rate high in recent months to smother out the last embers of the post-pandemic surge of inflation, which has come down considerably since 2022 but is still more than the Fed’s 2% annual target.

Austan Goolsbee, president of the Chicago Fed, said the tariffs were likely to cause inflation and economic stagnation at the same time, an economic condition known as “stagflation.”

“Prices are going up while jobs are being lost and growth is coming down,” Goolsbee said at the Economic Club of New York Thursday. “There is not a generic playbook for how the central bank should respond to a stagflationary shock.”

Jeff Schmid, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, said he would prioritize fighting inflation if the Fed were forced to choose between keeping price increases in check and preserving the labor market.

“There is a growing possibility that in setting policy, the Fed will have to balance inflation risks against growth and employment concerns,” Schmid said in a speech to business leaders in Kansas City on Thursday. “When contemplating this balance, I intend to keep my eye squarely focused on the outlook for inflation.”

In a letter to Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A) shareholders, legendary investor Warren Buffett once posed a deceptively simple question: “If you plan to eat hamburgers throughout your life (and are not a cattle producer), should you wish for higher or lower prices for beef?” The answer is lower, of course. Yet, according to Buffett, this question cuts to the heart of how investors should also think about markets and investing.

The “hamburger quiz” illustrates Buffett’s gift for making complex financial concepts accessible through everyday analogies. His point was clear: just as consumers should prefer lower prices for items they buy regularly, long-term investors should try to see market declines as opportunities, not disasters. We discuss why below—and it’s not about timing the market.

The Hamburger Principle Applied to Markets

Buffett’s analogy connects our understanding of consumer behavior to counterintuitive market psychology. We instantly recognize that lower beef prices benefit hamburger consumers. Yet when stock prices fall, most investors tend to panic rather than scope out the bargains.

He continues with another metaphor: “Likewise, if you are going to buy a car from time to time but are not an auto manufacturer, should you prefer higher or lower car prices? These questions, of course, answer themselves.”

However, Buffett says many investors have the wrong answer when faced with their own version of the hamburger test. “Even though they are going to be net buyers of stocks for many years to come, they are elated when stock prices rise and depressed when they fall. In effect, they rejoice because prices have risen for the ‘hamburgers’ they will soon be buying.”

Eating vs. Investing

There are, of course, fundamental differences between consuming and investing, with each having entirely different purposes and the means for doing so.

Consumption goods like hamburgers provide immediate utility but no future return. Their value is realized through use, with nothing left over. Even a car, which can last for many years, steadily loses value and eventually becomes worthless, except maybe for some residual scrap value.

Meanwhile, investing sacrifices the ability to consume today since you’re putting that money into a portfolio to generate future returns. The purpose, then, is to create more wealth over time. In short, consumption is about the present; investing is about the future.

When you buy a hamburger, your concern ends with a full stomach. But with investments, timing matters tremendously. Market declines only benefit you if prices eventually recover during your investment horizon.

Retirees or those short on cash might need to sell off their investments to pay the bills. Thus, when the market declines, that’s a real problem, not an opportunity.

The Psychology of Sell-offs

The hamburger analogy does help focus attention on the psychological reality of watching markets decline. Even long-term investors can struggle to maintain perspective when their portfolio values plummet. Buffett’s message thus directly challenges how most people instinctively respond to downturns.

“Smile when you read a headline that says ‘Investors lose as market falls,'” he told Berkshire Hathaway’s shareholders. “Edit it in your mind to ‘Disinvestors lose as market falls—but investors gain.'”

The Bottom Line

The hamburger quiz teaches people to treat market downturns as buying opportunities. The challenge it highlights grows more difficult when market declines persist for extended periods. While Buffett’s hamburger principle remains insightful, the emotional toll of multiyear bear markets tests even disciplined investors’ resolve.

President Trump’s unpredictable trade policies have pushed stock volatility up to its highest level in years, creating substantial uncertainty and, some say, opportunity on Wall Street.

Stock volatility jumped last week when President Trump announced sweeping tariffs that would raise the effective U.S. tariff rate to its highest level in more than a century. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), sometimes referred to as the fear index, nearly tripled between Trump’s tariff announcement last Wednesday and Monday morning when stocks opened at their lowest level in more than a year. The VIX has remained elevated despite a historic stock rally on Wednesday when Trump delayed nearly all of the tariffs. The index traded above 40, a level it hit only once in all of 2023 and 2024, for a sixth consecutive day on Friday.

The stock market’s volatility matches the unpredictability of the White House’s trade policy. Trump has announced, delayed, escalated, and watered down his tariff threats repeatedly during the first months of his presidency, putting businesses and consumers on tenterhooks. Mentions of “chaos” on earnings calls and at corporate conferences have skyrocketed in recent weeks, according to analysis from data provider AlphaSense. 

Uncertainty Will Continue to Hang Over Market

The 90-day pause eliminates some of the risk hanging over markets, according to Kristian Kerr, Head of Macro Strategy at LPL Financial, who noted countries and companies could negotiate lower rates over the next three months. “So in essence uncertainty has been reduced a bit,” he said, “but the erratic nature of US policy will remain an overhang and keep uncertainty elevated versus norms until we get more definitive clarity on trade policy.”

Wall Street expects more twists and turns in the coming months. The 90-day pause “may provide companies with a clearer backdrop for their guidance, offering some relief to a market hungry for direction,” wrote Gina Bolvin, President of Bolvin Wealth Management in a note on Wednesday. “However, uncertainty looms over what happens after the 90-day period, leaving investors to grapple with potential volatility ahead.” 

Opportunities Emerge for Long-Term Investors

Kerr and Bolvin both recommend investors take the long view. Trading volume hit a record high last Friday and again on Monday, evidence that “emotional selling had firmly taken over,” according to Kerr. “When valuations overshoot to irrational extremes, opportunities emerge for investors willing to think long-term,” he said. “Dislocations like this can present chances to buy solid assets at prices that reflect panic rather than reality.”

“I empathize with those who sold out yesterday and are now watching the rebound from the sidelines,” Bolvin wrote on Wednesday. “This underscores the importance of staying fully invested, particularly in a market as reactive and headline-driven as this one.”

China on Friday said U.S. chip firms outsourcing manufacturing would be exempt from the country’s tariffs on U.S. goods, according to a notice on WeChat. 

The post by the China Semiconductor Industry Association indicated that for all integrated circuits, import customs would be based on the country where they were manufactured, according to a Google translation.

That means, for example, that chips purchased by Chinese firms from American companies like Nvidia (NVDA)—which outsources manufacturing to TSMC (TSM) in Taiwan—would not be subject to China’s tariffs on U.S. goods. On Friday, China hiked its tariffs on U.S. imports to 125% after President Donald Trump elevated U.S. duties on Chinese goods to 145%.

However, American companies that manufacture domestically like Texas Instruments (TXN) and Intel (INTC) would still see China’s tariffs apply to those chips made in the U.S.

Shares of Texas Instruments plunged over 8% in recent trading following the news, making it the worst-performing stock in the S&P 500. Shares of Intel also tumbled, while Nvidia and TSMC gained. (Read Investopedia’s live coverage of today’s market action here.)

Morgan Stanley (MS) posted better-than-expected first-quarter results on the back of record stock-trading revenue amid volatile markets.

The bank reported earnings per share (EPS) of $2.60 on record revenue of $17.74 billion. Analysts polled by Visible Alpha had expected $2.18 and $16.44 billion, respectively. 

Morgan Stanley’s results were powered by equity revenue that soared 45% year-over-year to a record $4.13 billion. The bank said it posted “increases across business lines and regions, particularly in Asia, with outperformance in prime brokerage and derivatives driven by strong client activity amid a more volatile trading environment.”

Morgan Stanley shares were down about 1% in recent trading but have risen more than 20% in the past 12 months.

BlackRock (BLK) reported better-than-expected first-quarter adjusted profit as the investment giant reported another assets under management (AUM) record.

The company reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $11.30, well above the $10.13 analysts had expected, while revenue fell just short of Visible Alpha estimates at $5.28 billion.

At the end of the first quarter, BlackRock had a record $11.58 trillion in AUM, up 11% year-over-year.

“Uncertainty and anxiety about the future of markets and the economy are dominating client conversations,” BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said. “We’ve seen periods like this before when there were large, structural shifts in policy and markets—like the financial crisis, COVID, and surging inflation in 2022. We always stayed connected with clients, and some of BlackRock’s biggest leaps in growth followed.”

Fink said Monday that the Trump administration’s tariffs could stoke inflation, adding that most CEOs he has spoken with believe the U.S. is “probably in a recession right now.”

BlackRock shares were up 1.4% less than an hour before the opening bell Friday. They entered the day down 16% since the start of the year.

Global stocks are volatile after China hiked its retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports to 125%, with investors bracing for an escalating trade war.

Beijing raised its levy on U.S. imports from 84% on Friday, two days after President Donald Trump said China would be excluded from his 90-day pause on tariffs. A 10% base rate remains in effect for all countries, while China now faces an overall 145% levy.

“At the current tariff level, there is no market acceptance for US goods exported to China,” China’s State Council Tariff Commission said. “If the US continues to impose tariffs on Chinese goods exported to the US, China will ignore it.”

U.S. stock futures are edging higher, having whipsawed between gains and losses after indexes sank Thursday. Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures are all up less than 1%. The Stoxx Europe 600 index is edging lower. Asian shares closed before China’s latest move, with Japan’s Nikkei ending down 3% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up 1.4%. 

Meanwhile, the dollar is plunging against most major currencies and the 10-year Treasury yield is down below 4.40%.

Swiss pharmaceutical giant Novartis (NVS) said it plans to invest $23 billion in the construction and expansion of 10 U.S. facilities, as drugmakers brace for potential tariffs from the Trump administration. 

The planned investment includes six new manufacturing plants and a San Diego-based research and development site to be built over the next five years. Two of the six plants, which Novartis said will manufacture cancer therapies, are slated to be built in Florida and Texas.

Novartis said it expects the projects to create more than 4,000 American jobs, including 1,000 roles at the company.

Move Comes Amid Tariff Uncertainty

Novartis’ announcement comes after President Donald Trump earlier this week said his administration will “be announcing very shortly a major tariff on pharmaceuticals.”

“We’re going to tariff our pharmaceuticals, and once we do that they’re going to come rushing back into our country because we’re the big market,” Trump said at a dinner hosted by the National Republican Congressional Committee. 

Novartis CEO Vas Narasimhan said tariffs were a consideration but not the driving factor behind the investment, Reuters reported Thursday.

Novartis shares were little changed Thursday amid a broader market decline. The stock has gained about 6% in 2025 through Thursday’s close. (Read Investopedia’s live coverage of today’s market action here.)

In February, rival drugmaker Eli Lilly (LLY) said it would invest at least $27 billion to build four new pharmaceutical manufacturing sites in the U.S. A month later, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) announced plans to raise its domestic investments to $55 billion over the next four years.

Below you’ll find featured rates available from our partners, followed by details from our ranking of the best CDs available nationwide.

Rates of 4.50% to 4.65% You Can Guarantee as Long as 2026

The nation’s leading CD rate held its ground today at 4.65%, and you have your choice of two offers for that APY: INOVA Federal Credit Union offers a 5-month term, and OMB lets you extend the APY for 7 months. In both cases, you can lock in your return until this fall.

If you’d rather extend your rate lock until 2026, two top CDs pay 4.60%. Abound Credit Union offers that rate for a 10-month duration, while Vibrant Credit Union matches that APY for 13 months.

Four more nationwide certificates pay at least 4.55%, with the longest term among these being 13 months. Or you could stretch to XCEL Federal Credit Union’s 18-month certificate, which would guarantee a 4.50% return until October of next year.