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The states with the cheapest 30-year mortgage refinance rates Thursday were New York, California, Florida, Colorado, Texas, Tennessee, Washington, Pennsylvania, and Georgia. The nine states registered averages between 7.01% and 7.21%.

Meanwhile, the states with the highest Thursday refinance rates were West Virginia, Maine, North Dakota, Rhode Island, Alaska, New Mexico, South Dakota, Montana, and Vermont. The range of 30-year refi averages for the lowest-rate states was 7.30% to 7.35%.

Mortgage refinance rates vary by the state where they originate. Different lenders operate in different regions, and rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average loan size, and regulations. Lenders also have varying risk management strategies that influence the rates they offer.

Since rates vary widely across lenders, it’s always smart to shop around for your best mortgage option and compare rates regularly, no matter the type of home loan you seek.

National Mortgage Refinance Rate Averages

Rates for 30-year refinance mortgages surged 33 basis points over the first three days of this week, but shaved off 2 basis points Thursday. The 7.24% national average remains near a three-month high.

Last month, in contrast, 30-year refi rates sank to 6.71%, their cheapest average of 2025. And back in September, 30-year rates plunged to a two-year low of 6.01%.

Southwest Airlines’ long-running free bags policy has had a welcome side effect: Its fliers were less likely to complain about having to gate-check their carry-ons.

But the airline’s newest policies, which take effect late next month, could change that, since travelers who soon will have to pay for bags likely will be more inclined to battle for space in the overhead bins. That, in turn, could mean more grumbling from passengers who wonder why they’re asked to check bags—then see bins that appear less-than-full once they board.

“We do expect a decrease in checked bags at the ticket counter,” a Southwest spokesperson said in a statement provided to Investopedia. “However, we are working to keep the travel experience seamless and as hassle free as possible for our customers and our employees.” 

This is a common frustration with U.S. airlines. Delta Air Lines (DAL) passenger Karah Preiss posted her annoyance with the carrier on X last September, after she “was forced to gate check only to get on the plane and see a ton of empty overhead bins. Hate to have to wait for checked bag I didn’t intend to check.”

“Across the industry, boarding is the most consistent barrier to an on-time departure and the boarding process can be slowed down by customers needing extra time to store their bags due to lack of overhead storage,” a Delta spokesperson said in a statement to Investopedia. “We use optimization tools to predict when overhead storage will be full, and while sometimes customers are required to check their bags at the gate, it is always a last resort.”

I experienced this myself last fall after flying from New York to Boston. The gate agent announced that passengers in higher-numbered boarding groups would have to check carry-ons because there wouldn’t be overhead bin space when it was their turn to get on the plane.

I did as instructed, but when I approached my row near the back of the plane, there was plenty of space, including directly above my seat. I then had to wait nearly as long at baggage claim for my bag as I spent in the air.

Why does this happen? Travel expert Gary Leff of View From the Wing has written extensively about the topic over the years, saying that the issue is “one of the two most common airline complaints (after nicked luggage) that’s accompanied by photos.”

Leff attributes part of the problem to agents who “don’t want to gate check bags at the last minute when it might delay the flight” by a few minutes; they’d rather check the bags pre-emptively, the thinking goes.

“There’s little incentive to make sure customers can get on with their bags,” Leff adds. “There’s every incentive to avoid low ratings for delayed flights a gate agent is working.”

Southwest Airlines Has Largely Avoided These Complaints—Until Now

Up until now, Southwest Airlines (LUV) has avoided passenger scorn for this. That’s because throughout its history, it has allowed two free checked bags.

However, Southwest announced in March—following months of disputes with activist investor Elliott Investment Management—that it will be implementing radical changes, including charging for checked bags. Leff expects “carry-on confiscations” to pick up at the Dallas-based carrier.

As such, Southwest may join its peers in getting tagged on social media posts when customers are forced to gate check their bags and then discover that there’s plenty of overhead bin space—which could hit anyone from an everyday traveler to the occasional pro wrestler.

Treasury yields soared on Friday, extending a weeklong run-up that has defied expectations and threatened the Treasury market’s status as a safe haven in times of stock market turmoil.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which influences interest rates on all kinds of consumer loans, rose as high as 4.59% on Friday before retreating slightly. The yield recently stood at 4.5%, 6 basis points above yesterday’s close. 

Treasury yields soared this week even as tariffs went into effect on Wednesday, battering the stock market and raising fears of an economic slowdown. The 10-year yield has skyrocketed more than 50 basis points—or half a percentage point—in the last five days, its largest weekly increase since 2008. 

The bond sell-off—bond yields and prices are inversely related, meaning yields rise when prices fall—has defied standard market logic. Bond prices usually increase when stocks fall as investors pivot to the relative safety of U.S. Treasurys. Bond prices also tend to increase as the risk of recession grows more acute; investors, expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in response to a slowdown, purchase Treasurys to lock in today’s comparatively high rates. 

Experts have pointed to a few possible culprits for the bond market’s recent volatility. Some point to the potential for Trump’s tariffs to nudge inflation higher, which could force the Fed to keep interest rates elevated. 

Others have speculated that Trump’s antagonistic trade and foreign policy has reduced global demand for Treasurys, the world’s most widely held sovereign debt. China is one of the largest holders of U.S. debt, and some experts warn it could wreak havoc on the Treasury market by dumping bonds. 

The ups and downs of President Donald Trump’s tariff policies have consumers feeling down and out, a closely followed survey showed Friday.

Consumer sentiment fell for the fourth straight month in April, dropping 11% from March, according to the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The reading of 50.8 was well under the 54.6 expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal, as a wide swath of the U.S. public raised worries about the state of the economy.

“Consumers report multiple warning signs that raise the risk of recession: expectations for business conditions, personal finances, incomes, inflation, and labor markets all continued to deteriorate this month,” said Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers.

And that could be bad news for Federal Reserve policymakers, who look at consumer expectations to give them an idea of what’s to come.

Trade War Anxieties Shared Across Demographics

Worries of a growing trade war were the source of the anxiety, Hsu said, coming as President Donald Trump has initiated a number of new tariffs on foreign trading partners, some of which were later paused. 

The proposals have generated various responses, from roller-coaster movements in the stock market to retaliatory tariffs from China and other trading partners. The report showed that it’s causing anxiety for nearly everyone.

“This decline was, like the last month’s, pervasive and unanimous across age, income, education, geographic region, and political affiliation,” Hsu said.

Inflation Worries Hitting Weary Consumers

Consumers’ primary worry about tariffs seems to be inflation, as year-ahead expectations for price increases jumped to 6.7%, almost two percentage points higher than last month. This is the worst consumers have felt about inflation since 1981. 

The increasing consumer inflation expectations defy past historical trends, where people generally became more worried about higher prices as inflation rates rose, noted Wells Fargo economists Tim Quinlan and Shannon Grein. However, recent inflation readings show that price increases are slowing, including declines in consumer and wholesale inflation rates this week. 

“Consumers are growing increasingly concerned about the coming price environment given how widely tariffs are reaching,” the Wells Fargo note said. “Even as inflation has moderated over the past year, consumers are more price sensitive today, leaving less cushion for them to take price hikes.” 

Inflation Expectations Threaten to Make the Fed’s Job Harder

Elevated inflation worries could be a problem for the Federal Reserve. Officials follow consumers’ feelings about inflation because those inflation expectations can become self-fulfilling.

While tariffs are expected to cause prices to jump for some items, the one-time event could have a limited effect since inflation measures price increases compared to similar points in time, usually looking at the prior month and the past year.

“Monetary policymakers may look through a temporary pop in price growth when it comes to setting policy if it feels confident that longer-term inflation expectations are ‘anchored,’” the Wells Fargo note said.

The inflation expectations are poorly anchored when “the public reacts to a short period of higher-than-expected inflation by marking up their long-run expectation considerably,” according to former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke.

These decades-high inflation expectations could be a problem, economists said.

“We may not have seen price pressures in the official data in March, but the Fed will have to deal with containing or putting a lid on inflation expectations while, at the same time, dealing with slower growth and, perhaps, potential challenges to their independence,” wrote BMO Senior Economist Jennifer Lee.

President Donald Trump’s trade war with China could hit the wallets of families with young children especially hard, more than doubling prices for goods imported from the world’s biggest toy workshop.

This week, Trump raised tariffs on Chinese products to 145% as the trade war between the world’s two economic superpowers heated up. Should those tariffs stick, import taxes could make holiday shopping much more costly since 77% of all toys purchased in the U.S. are made in China, according to the Atlantic Council think tank, citing data from Comtrade and the International Trade Center.

“Buy your kids’ Christmas presents today because it’s going to have a huge impact on the price of toys,” economist John Veitch, dean of the School of Business and Management at Notre Dame de Namur University, told Investopedia in an interview.

Some manufacturers of popular toys have already warned of potential price increases. Mattel, makers of Barbie dolls, previously said they would have to raise prices in response to the 20% tariff on China Trump announced in February.

Reuters reported that the toymaker is reportedly moving some of its production from China to Vietnam, India, and Indonesia but will still make more than 60% of its products in China after the move. The other three Southeast Asian countries also face high tariffs under Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs announced earlier this month, although that levy has been suspended for 90 days.

The tariffs could hit other popular toys, including Lego, which makes its bricks in Denmark and opened a factory in Vietnam this week. At a minimum, Lego importers would have to pay the 10% global tariff that Trump announced alongside the country-specific “reciprocal” tariffs. Lego is opening a factory in the U.S., but it’s not scheduled to begin production until 2027.

Overall, the broad range of tariffs implemented by the Trump administration could push up prices on a multitude of consumer products. A typical family will have to pay $4,689 extra per year for the things they buy, according to the latest estimate from the Yale Budget Lab, which has tracked the impact of the tariffs.

That impact won’t be spread evenly, though, and could make holiday shopping especially difficult for parents. Jay Foreman, CEO of Tonka truck and Care Bear manufacturer Basic Fun Toys, told The Today Show that a 125% tariff on Chinese products would force him to raise the price of a $30 truck to $70 and that there would likely be a toy shortage this Christmas if the tariffs stay in place.

“There are no factories in the United States making the type of toys we manufacture,” he said.

Analysts from Bank of America on Friday upgraded American Express (AXP) stock to a “buy” rating, saying the credit card provider should be resilient through a potential downturn or recession.

They upgraded the stock, but cut their price target to $274 from $325 to reflect lowered revenue and earnings forecasts as they expect consumer spending to slow.

Bank of America is now one of six “buy” ratings among the 13 analysts tracked by Visible Alpha, along with five “hold” and two “sell” ratings, while its price target is now below the $308.67 consensus. The stock was up 2% at $252 in late trading Friday.

Amex Benefits from ‘High-Quality Customer Base’

“The macro environment is uncertain and GDP growth is likely slowing,” the analysts wrote. “This is a headwind for revenue growth. But we think Amex’s high-quality customer base should drive more durable earnings while keeping credit losses in-check.”

American Express shares have lost about 15% since the start of the year, which the analysts said “offers long-term oriented investors an opportunity to buy a high-quality company at a reasonable valuation.”

The analysts noted that in prior downturns like the COVID pandemic and the first Trump administration’s trade war, American Express stock “outperformed not only other card issuers but also the S&P 500.”

The card issuer is set to report first-quarter earnings on Thursday, and Bank of America analysts said the company’s outlook for the rest of 2025 will likely be more important than whether its first-quarter results beat or miss estimates.

American Express reported results in line with estimates last quarter as executives said spending was strong through the holiday season.

Casey’s General Stores (CASY) has gained another bull.

KeyBanc Capital Markets on Thursday initiated coverage of the Iowa-based gas station and convenience store chain at “overweight” with a $500 price target. It is the highest of the five current price targets tracked by Visible Alpha, which has a consensus of $468.50.

Casey’s General Stores shares added over 4% Friday to close at $457.25 amid broader market gains. They have risen nearly 50% over the past year.

KeyBanc analysts wrote that Casey’s may scoop up more competitors—it has acquired nearly 470 stores in the past five years—and bolster their sales by introducing pizza and prepared foods. “Looking forward, we see balanced growth driven from organic store openings, small acquisitions … and (at a store level) from its investments in its food innovation pipeline,” the analysts said.

Convenience Store Sector ‘Has Little Direct Tariff Risk,’ KeyBanc Says

The convenience store industry, which KeyBanc estimates generated 2024 sales of $825 billion, “has little direct tariff risk,” it said. But the field is also fragmented and ripe for consolidation, with KeyBanc estimating 75% of chains may go out of business or be acquired by competitors.

Much of the sales growth in the gas station sector has come in recent years from snacks, drinks, tobacco and items sold inside convenience stores, KeyBanc said, adding that this is Casey’s strength. The company is the fifth-largest pizza chain in the U.S. and growing, analysts said.

“Despite being a convenience store and operating in rural and lower-population markets, Casey’s prepared food business produces impressive volume, with (average unit volume) better than Subway,” the note said, adding: “Its food innovation pipeline is also gaining sophistication and should drive comp growth.”

With pizza prices $1 or $2 below competitors, Casey’s may draw in customers looking for value, the analysts said. CEO Darren Rebelez said Casey’s wants to make inroads with people looking to save and has seen recently seen customers pick baked goods over high-priced candy.

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The nation’s leading CD rate held its ground today at 4.65%. INOVA Federal Credit Union and OMB both offer that APY for 7 months, locking in your return until this fall.

If you’d rather extend your rate lock until 2026, two top CDs pay 4.60%. Abound Credit Union offers that rate for a 10-month duration, while Vibrant Credit Union matches that APY for 13 months.

Four more nationwide certificates pay at least 4.55%, with the longest term among these being 13 months. Or you could stretch to XCEL Federal Credit Union’s 18-month certificate, which would guarantee a 4.50% return until October of next year.

Financial markets may have rejoiced this week at the 90-day reprieve on President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, but the U.S. economy still faces a similar outlook as it did before the pause.

Higher consumer prices, slower growth, and an elevated risk of recession are still forecast despite Trump’s withdrawal of the varied ‘reciprocal’ tariffs that the White House announced last week.

The rapid-fire tariff policy changes mean many importers face lower tariffs than initially announced. However, U.S. consumers will still likely pay higher prices for imports than they did a month ago. The remaining tariffs include:

• A 145% tariff on China
• A 10% global tariff
• A 25% tariff on certain products from Canada and Mexico
• A 25% tariff on cars, with a 25% tariff on car parts set to go into effect in May
• A 25% tariff on steel and aluminum

The tariff against China was so extreme it was nearly the same as entirely cutting off trade with the U.S.’s third-largest trading partner, several economists said.

“The average tariff rate currently stands at around 20%, with the tariff rate on China…constituting a de facto embargo,” Preston Caldwell, chief U.S. economist at Morningstar, wrote in a commentary Wednesday. “By comparison, at the end of 2024, the average effective tariff rate was 2.4%.”

The U.S. will buy 90% fewer products from China if the tariffs hold, shifting purchases to other countries, economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics estimated.

Inflation and Recession Still Possible, Forecasters Say

The remaining tariffs will take a significant financial toll on U.S. consumers as well as the economy, forecasters said. Economists at Goldman Sachs rolled back their forecast for a recession in the coming year from 60% before the delay was announced but still saw a 45% chance of a recession.

“What was pulled back yesterday was actually enough for us to change our view about the effect of this on the economy, but ultimately, doesn’t change the fact that you still got a substantial tariff rate,” Alec Phillips, chief U.S. political economist at the investment bank, said in a conference call with clients Thursday.

Other forecasters said the 90-day reprieve had not nearly reversed the damage.

“It was encouraging to see the president reverse himself on the so-called ‘reciprocal’ tariffs yesterday, but I wouldn’t take much solace in it as the global trade war continues to rage. I still put the odds of a recession this year at 60%,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Morgan Stanley, posted on social media platform X.

Prediction markets were just as pessimistic, with gamblers on Polymarket pricing in about a 60% chance of a recession occurring in 2025.

Economists at the Yale Budget Lab estimated Thursday that the costs of the tariffs will likely be passed through to consumers. The lab revised its estimates in the wake of the pause and found that the typical U.S. household will still lose $4,700 of purchasing power per year.