Donald Trump’s new global tariff regime could be great for Brazil, it turns out. Here’s why.
China, which Trump hit with new tariffs of 145% last month, has of course imposed its own retaliatory measures. Beijing is aiming its guns at American farmers, who make up an important slice of Trump voters.
Flash back to last year, when China was one of the three largest destinations for US agricultural products. According to the Department of Agriculture, these exports repre- sented close to $25 billion in value in 2024. They are unlikely to reach that number this year.
In March, President Xi Jinping announced extra tariffs of 15% on US chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton and a 10% increase on sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, seafood, fruits, vegetables, and dairy. When Trump raised the bar, China followed with tariffs of 125% on US soybeans.
Chinese consumers will not starve. Brazilian farmers can easily replace American products with their own soybeans and corn. They also have chicken and eggs. Fortunately for them, Brazilian chicken farms escaped the bird flu outbreak, and Brazilian farmers are ready to ship their birds to Asia.
Japan could be another new outlet. Japan imported 40% of its beef from the US last year, but new American tariffs on auto imports have offended Tokyo. Why not try Brazilian meat? That’s what President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva suggested on a recent trip to Japan. The message is the same in Europe. In December, the EU signed a deal with Mercosur that would eliminate 90% of tariffs between Europe and the South American group of Argentina, Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Brazil. The agreement awaits ratification by the constituent EU states; Brazil’s Finance Minister Fernando Haddad visited the EU at the end of March to emphasize the benefits of the deal. Ironically, the Trump-created new world order could also support increased exports of Brazilian shoes to the US. Americans, deprived of cheap Chinese footwear, could switch to Brazilian models. With its abundant sup- ply of leather, Brazil is the biggest producer of shoes outside of Asia.
Last month, Germany’s Federal Cartel Office approved Italy’s second-largest lender’s plan to purchase a major stake in state-backed Commerzbank.
UniCredit revealed last year that it had secured a position of around 28%, with plans to increase it to 29.9%, just short of the 30% threshold requiring it to submit a public bid for the entire bank.
A week later, however, UniCredit said its €10 billion unsolicited bid for domestic rival Banco BPM had stalled after the Italian government imposed conditions under its so-called Golden Power rules, which allow the state to block or place restrictions on corporate takeovers in strategic sectors. Citing requirements for credit and liquidity management, asset disposals, and its remaining operations in Russia, the bank stated that it was not in a position to make any decisions at this time. UniCredit is one of the few global banks that chose not to exit Russia following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. CEO Andrea Orcel stated he would not harm shareholders by selling assets at an unfair price.
If European banks continue to generate lower returns on investment compared to some of their global peers, and the sector remains somewhat fragmented along national lines, Orcel is certainly not to blame. The bank has recently reported record profits and is actively pursuing a bold strategy of mergers and acquisitions across the continent.
Orcel, who earlier in his career worked at Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch, was CEO of UBS Investment Bank for most of the 2010s. Since he became head of UniCredit in 2021, the lender’s stock price has increased sixfold. With UniCredit’s acquisition of Commerzbank’s stake, the largest cross-border banking deal in Europe since the global financial crisis, Orcel strengthened his reputation as a prolific rainmaker. Still, the resistance he met from unions and politicians in Germany and Italy doesn’t bode well for the EU banking sector as a whole, which is facing a pressing need for consolidation and a more integrated, profitable framework.
Fitch Ratings Chief Economist Brian Coulton discusses with Global Finance how tariffs, inflation, disrupted supply chains, and renewed regionalism are reshaping trade amid prolonged protectionist policies.
Global Finance: Last month, Fitch sharply lowered its forecasts for global economic growth in light of the burgeoning global trade war. You now expect growth in 2025 in the US to be a modest 1.2%, China’s to fall below 4%, the eurozone’s to well under 1%, and world growth to come in under 2%. Why did your assessment change?
Brian Coulton: Our previous assessment was that the US would definitely embark on a sharp path of protectionism, but we thought the scale of it and the intensity of it would be something that got us back to where we were in the 1960s. Now, the calculations we’re doing of the effective tariff rate take us back to Edwardian times—120 years ago. It’s gone way beyond our expectations.
The effective tariff rate has been pushed in two directions. The reciprocal rates went down to 10%, and that’s a lot lower than the rates we were looking at in the immediate aftermath of “Liberation Day.” And we’ve had the bigger carve out for electronics. But going against that is the massive escalation in the US-China trade war. When we put those two things together, we still end up with an effective rate pretty close to 25%.
GF: What do you see as the impact on the global economy?
Coulton: We’re looking at a much worse tariff scenario for the rest of the world than we had in March, and significant downgrades to US and Chinese growth, and the knock-on effects that’s going to have.
This feels to us like it could be quite a significant adverse US supply shock, due to the scramble for US firms and consumers to find alternative sources of supply in the near term. If you’ve got bilateral tariff rates over 100%, it’s just got to collapse. And I don’t think supply chains can be redirected that quickly.
Inflation going above 4% in the US seems quite likely to us. That’s going to worry the Federal Reserve in itself, but just as important is what’s been happening to US households’ inflation expectations. We’ve now had two prints of the University of Michigan [Surveys of Consumers] showing medium- to long-term household inflation expectations have gone through the roof—I mean, off the charts. We haven’t seen anything like the recent readings since before the 1990s. That is a pretty serious threat to the Fed’s credibility.
So, while we still think the next move from the Fed is probably going to be a rate cut, I don’t think they’re going to be in any hurry to do that. What was interesting in [Fed chair] Jay Powell’s last speech was that he talked about the risk of a persistent inflationary impact from high tariffs. In that context, we’re going to see the Fed being very cautious about cutting rates, even though there’s widespread agreement now that US growth is going to slow quite sharply.
Against that backdrop, the dollar ought to be appreciating, but one of the interesting features of this crisis has been the weakening of the dollar. This may be a little source of comfort elsewhere; in the emerging-market world, it raises a bit of scope for more monetary-policy flexibility: a loosening as an offset to the growth shock that will come from the US and China. But the bottom line is, nobody really wins from a trade war.
GF:Is there a method to what the Trump administration is doing?
Coulton: There’s so much complexity! We’ve got sector-level tariffs, country tariffs on China, drug-related tariffs—so many different justifications for tariffs. So, it’s quite hard to draw a clear conclusion. The only thing that comes through consistently to me is this import substitution agenda that [Trump trade adviser] Peter Navarro is pushing, which is behind their approach to selling the reciprocal tariffs. But it has nothing to do with the actual data on reciprocal tariffs. It was all about trying to set tariffs at a level that, on the basis of Navarro’s models, would eliminate bilateral trade deficits completely. So, they just want to get rid of the trade deficit: not only the aggregate trade deficit, but each individual trade deficit. It’s about turning the US into a producer-focused economy from a consumer-focused economy.
On that basis, I would say that we’re not going back, under this administration, to anything like the sort of trade arrangements we had before. I think tariffs are going to stay high for a long time.
GF: What countries are especially vulnerable in the current climate?
Coulton: The classic vulnerable ones are those running the largest surpluses with the US, and where their exports to the US are large as a share of GDP. Vietnam, Mexico, and Canada are right at the top of that list. And there’s certainly a number of quite small economies where the Rose Garden tariffs were a real shocker.
But it’s China that’s looking particularly exposed now, because of its quite aggressive retaliation. And so, we’ve ended up with a tariff rate on China that’s just eye-popping.
That said, what does China have to its benefit? It’s a huge, $18 trillion economy. They not only have a diversified domestic economy, but they also sell as much to Europe as they do to the US. Total exports to the US are still under 3% of GDP. So even if it goes to zero, it’s nothing like the sort of shock that you would get in Mexico or Vietnam if the same thing happened. So they do have policy space; if there’s one economy that can take a really nasty US tariff shock on the chin, it’s China.
GF: During Trump’s first administration, Beijing adopted a “China Plus One” strategy of tightening ties with other regional economies, which enabled it to export to the US effectively through those markets. Are we likely to see the same gambit this time around?
Coulton: It looks to me as if that’s what [Washington is] trying to avoid, and they said that pretty explicitly in a lot of the documentation. Trump only paused the Rose Garden tariffs for 90 days, and he’s said this is an opportunity to negotiate. I am pretty sure, as part of that negotiation, the US will insist that countries do not allow China to open a load of factories in their backyards, start importing more from China, and then export more to the US.
GF:Is the Trump administration perhaps thinking along the lines that the US has got a stronger economy and will knock the Chinese down a few notches in a trade war? If that’s their intent, is it reasonable?
Coulton: I really can’t see that it would have any success at all in terms of gaining global market share for the US at the expense of China. The Chinese are pretty good at this. Look at the debate in Germany. Not only are the Chinese managing to make the stuff that Germany used to sell to them, but they have moved up the value added chain to such an extent that they are eating Germany’s lunch in third markets. It’s been a fairly subdued three to five years since the pandemic for global trade, but China’s exports have been doing really well. As the domestic property market in China has collapsed, they’ve reverted back to relying on exports to drive growth, and they’ve been quite successful at that. So I think it would be quite brave of the US if they really thought they could take on China and its export machine.
GF:Are we likely to see new alignments in the global trade landscape coming out of this tariff upheaval? Does the rest of the world continue to believe in multilateralism?
Coulton: My expectation is that there will be a bit of a rejuvenation of regionalism: countries outside the US looking to cooperate a bit more to offset the negative impact from what’s going on in the US.
There’s definitely a sense in Europe of, “The US is stepping back from the multilateral system, but we still value it,” and so they’re having conversations with China and Asia as frequently as possible. On the other hand, there is this kind of nervousness that China’s got all this export capacity, and suddenly their biggest market is kind of evaporating because of the tariffs—what are they going to do with all those exports?
So there’s this niggling worry about China dumping into the European market. And that maybe feeds into cooperation, because they want to make sure that doesn’t happen, or if it does, that they get something out of it in terms of more access into China. So it’s even more important for Europe to have these conversations.
But the other relevant point to your question is that, at the end of the day, global trade is about supply meeting demand. And the US has always been—and I think will continue to be—the world’s most important consumer market. That limits the scope for other blocs to trade with each other. You don’t trade for fun. You trade so the supply meets the demand. And if the demand is in the US, cooperation is going to be difficult.
And I think that’s true for a lot of East Asian manufacturing hubs. Ultimately, they’re all part of the global machine. It’s really all about the US consumer. The rest of the world is going to continue to be tied umbilically to the US, one way or another, if it doesn’t want to starve itself. It’s going to be hard to have this complete uncoupling.
GF: To what extent do you reckon this is the new normal? Even if we see the tariff situation easing, has the damage been done? Are we in a more negative long-term situation?
Coulton: For the duration of this administration, I think we are in a different world in terms of global trade; multilateralism doesn’t seem to be something they’re interested in at all. So it’s all about import substitution; building a stronger manufacturing base seems to be an absolute core part of what they are doing. When Trump talks about the “pauses” he’s announced, it’s all about the speed at which this can happen, rather than whether it will happen at all. In 2032, it’s hard to predict. But for this administration, it feels like this is quite a fundamental shift.
Elected to lead the Catholic Church in 2013 after the sudden abdication of his predecessor Benedict XVI, Argentinian Cardinal Jorge Maria Bergoglio chose his pontifical name to echo the saint of the poor, Francis of Assisi.
Considered controversial by many conservative Catholics for his nontraditional stands on issues like homosexuality, immigration, and the role of women in the church, he quickly became known as the “People’s Pope,” advocating for the poor, the marginalized, and the most vulnerable.
Also among his many and at times contentious reforms was the overhaul of the Vatican’s finances.
With about $6 billion in assets, the church’s private bank, the Institute for the Works of Religion, was founded in 1942 by Pope Pius XII. It has been consistently riddled with scandals, including fraud, embezzlement, and money laundering.
Francis embarked on a massive makeover, axing the lavish salaries of some elite cardinals, improving financial transparency, and tightening regulation. His objective was to cut the Vatican’s hefty public debt, aiming for a zero-deficit during his lifetime.
Francis’s lifestyle reflected that goal. Always frugal, he distanced himself from the Vatican’s opulent tradition, leading an unpretentious life as pontiff.
Forgoing riches and luxuries, including the lavish papal residence in the Vatican and the pontifical summer palace in the Roman hills, he set up home in a modest abode adjacent to St. Peter’s Basilica. He relinquished every possession, including his conspicuous salary, reportedly nearly $400,000 a year, donating it to the church.
In this as in much else, Catholics await indications whether his successor will follow his example.
Banks, asset managers, and corporates push crypto and digital currencies into the mainstream amid shifting financial dynamics.
The argest bank in Italy, Intesa Sanpaolo, quietly purchased $1 million worth of bitcoin in early January. The move was not publicly disclosed; it surfaced in an internal bank memo. When pressed by reporters, CEO Carlo Messina described the purchase as merely a “test,” suggesting that Intesa may eventually acquire more bitcoin on behalf of some of its wealthy clients.
It could be a harbinger of things to come.
After years of keeping their distance, movers and shakers in the traditional financial world appear ready to play ball when it comes to cryptocurrencies and stablecoins. (Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency designed to maintain a stable value over time; they are typically pegged 1:1 to the value of traditional currencies like the US dollar or the euro.)
“The financial services industry is on the verge of entering the crypto economy,” Fortune reported Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan saying in February. And in March, Fidelity Investments, one of the world’s largest asset managers, was reported to be in advanced testing of its own stablecoin.
Competitive pressure and the need for a fast time to market are key drivers—fueled by rising demand from clients, including corporates, and by a shifting macroeconomic backdrop marked by Trump-era tariff threats and doubts about the global dollar system’s resilience. Together, these forces are pushing banks and asset managers to hedge geopolitical risk and tap new revenue streams through digital assets.
The Intesa purchase was made through Boerse Stuttgart Digital, which recently became Europe’s first regulated exchange for trading digital assets under the EU’s new Markets in Crypto Assets Regulation (MiCA) framework. The exchange is a unit of venerable Boerse Stuttgart Group, Europe’s sixth-largest exchange group.
“Institutional adoption of crypto assets is gaining momentum across Europe,” observes Joaquín Sastre Ibáñez, chief revenue officer at Boerse Stuttgart Digital. He expects other European banks and institutional investors to follow Intesa’s footsteps.
“In Germany, for example, we have recently partnered with DekaBank to offer crypto trading to institutional clients,” Sastre Ibáñez notes. Many financial institutions had been waiting for a clear regulatory framework before introducing crypto offerings to their customers, which MiCA now provides.
It’s not just in Europe that the crypto temperature is rising. In early March, the US established a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, and many individual US states, most notably Texas, could soon have bitcoin reserves of their own. Pension funds, too, are “dipping their toes into buying bitcoin,” The Financial Times reported in January, including funds in the UK and Australia, “a sign that even typically staid corners of finance are finding it hard to ignore the potential outsized returns from cryptocurrencies.”
In the US, stablecoin legislation moved out of a key Senate committee with bipartisan support in mid-March and passage is soon expected. The legislation sets clear rules for stablecoin issuers, requiring full reserve backing and compliance with anti-money laundering laws to safeguard consumers and reinforce the US dollar’s global standing. Stablecoins often act as a bridge between crypto and national currencies; they share the same underlying blockchain technology as tokens like bitcoin and Ethereum.
“The US’s pro-crypto stance is reshaping the global financial landscape by integrating digital assets into the mainstream economic agenda,” says Federico Brokate, head of US Business at 21Shares, a cryptocurrency exchange-traded fund (ETF) provider based in Switzerland.
The creation of the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve along with the US Digital Asset Stockpile, consisting of tokens other than bitcoin, marks a significant shift in institutional perception, he adds, “positioning cryptocurrencies as essential financial instruments rather than speculative assets. This move not only signals long-term confidence in digital assets but also sets a precedent for other nations.”
“Digital assets are here to stay, as convergence of traditional and digital finance advances.”
Joaquin Sastre Ibanez, Boerse Stuttgart Digital
Two major pension funds in the US have already made significant investments in spot bitcoin ETFs: The State of Michigan Department of the Treasury and the State of Wisconsin Investment Board. The latter has committed more than $300 million to IBIT, BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF.
“We expect this trend to continue among pensions as regulatory clarity continues to progress in the US,” says Brokate. Institutional interest extends to other regions as well, he adds; Abu Dhabi’s Sovereign Wealth Fund has invested more than $450 million in IBIT.
The Future Of Money
Simon McLoughlin, CEO of UPHOLD, a cryptocurrency trading platform, sees stablecoins in particular as playing a key role in transforming global finance. “Stablecoins are the future of money,” he says, “so much so, in fact, that in 10 years’ time, we won’t even refer to stablecoins. They will just be money.”
Simon McLoughlin, CEO, UPHOLD
“Stablecoin issuance has grown rapidly in recent years and become a significant part of the financial system,” S&P Global Ratings concluded in a February report. “Stablecoins could enable smoother transactions, faster settlements, and lower costs for cross-border payments—especially in areas that lack access to traditional banking infrastructure.”
Indeed, stablecoin market capitalization reached $230 billion in mid-March, up 56% from a year earlier; analysts at Bernstein predict market cap could exceed $500 billion by yearend.
Fintechs like Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC) are pioneering the issuance of stablecoins, but other issuers may soon jump in.
“There will be stablecoins run by municipalities, businesses, and other organizations,” McLoughlin predicts. “But most importantly of all, there will be stablecoins issued directly by banks. We will have branded money.”
CFOs may have to adjust their thinking accordingly, he adds.
“CFOs need to start preparing now for a future where some of the functions of corporate treasury and international accounting are fulfilled on the blockchain,” McLoughlin said. When it comes to international payments, for instance, “if one of your rivals is using stablecoins to move money around the world and your business is not, you will be at a distinct disadvantage.”
Are Institutions Making Crypto Safer?
What about cryptocurrencies proper, like bitcoin? Unlike stablecoins, their market prices have always been volatile. But as more traditional financial firms embrace the crypto economy, those wild price gyrations may flatten out, anticipates Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered.
“Institutional buyers are less likely to sell on bad days than are leveraged retail buyers,” he says.
Moreover, custody solutions from traditional financial institutions like BNY Mellon or State Street could make storing crypto easier and more secure than current offerings by crypto-focused fintechs. Regulatory clarity in places like the US, too, could lead to less volatility while helping to “remove FTX issues,” says Kendrick, referring to the market-roiling collapse of the Bahamas-based cryptocurrency exchange in November 2022.
More institutions are interested today in both selling crypto to retail clients and diversification for their own corporate treasuries, says Boerse Stuttgart Digital’s Sastre Ibáñez. His group is partnering with Germany’s DZ Bank, for instance, to offer its retail clients direct access to crypto trading and custody.
If cryptocurrencies become less volatile, more pension funds and insurance companies could dive in, too. In December, one of Australia’s largest superannuation fund providers, AMP Limited, made a A$27 million ($16.4 million) investment in bitcoin futures, which CIO Anna Shelley described in a commentary on AMP’s website as a “cautious step” into bitcoin futures for members. Bitcoin could potentially be used as an alternative store of value to gold, she wrote, on the negative side, bitcoin “offers no yield.”
Still, many of Australia’s super funds—a category that includes pension funds—“already invest in many assets that have no yield,” Shelley noted in her commentary, “such as foreign currencies, derivatives and commodities, and even some listed companies [that] make no profit and deliver no dividends.”
Blue-Sky Speculation And Counterparty Risks
Some partisans set crypto’s sights even higher; one day, they say, central banks might invest in cryptocurrencies for diversification.
“Central banks considering investing in bitcoin could be emboldened by the fact the US government is going to at least hold on to the 270,000 bitcoins it currently owns, and potentially buy more at some stage,” Kendrick wrote in a January note, as reported by The Wall Street Journal.
Elsewhere, Aleš Michl, who heads the Czech National Bank, told The Financial Times in January that he would present a plan to his board to invest in bitcoin as a way to diversify the central bank’s reserves.
This proposal drew a flutter of scornful reactions. “Michl is mixing up the role of a central banker with that of a portfolio manager,” Elias Haddad, senior market strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman, told Bloomberg.
Indeed, some of this blue-sky speculation may not be accounting for all the risks.
“Stablecoins, issued by private entities, can fail like banks, risking de-pegging,” says Hanna Halaburda, associate professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business. Then, too, stablecoins are traded on blockchain networks, “offering decentralization and programmability but facing congestion risks and high costs.”
In addition, she notes, stablecoins have limited practical use in the US and some other countries where “traditional banking services are already efficient and reliable.” The largest demand for US-denominated stablecoins is overseas, “particularly in regions with unstable currencies or costly financial infrastructure.”
In many African countries, for example, “stablecoins provide a way to hold digital dollars, preserving purchasing power in economies plagued by inflation,” Halaburda notes. “They are also widely used for cross-border transactions, offering a faster and often cheaper alternative to traditional remittance services.”
But if a US central bank digital currency (CBDC)—a digital dollar—were ever made accessible internationally, that “could potentially serve these roles even more effectively,” she adds.
CBDCs vs Stablecoins
CBDCs are not cryptocurrencies, of course, but they are digital money like stablecoins: and the two may be in competition. Facebook’s Libra stablecoin, announced back in 2019, spurred digital currency awareness among central banks. The project was later abandoned, but as of February 2025, 134 countries and currency unions, representing 98% of global GDP, were exploring a CBDC, according to the Atlantic Council’s Central Bank Digital Currency Tracker.
CBDCs remain controversial, however, particularly in Western countries, where they come freighted with privacy questions. In January, an executive order by President Trump banned research and development for a US CBDC.
Trump’s rejection of a digital dollar, and his embrace of stablecoins, appears to have spurred the EU to speed up implementation of its own CBDC project. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said recently that Europe needs to push fast on the digital euro.
“Accelerating its implementation suggests that [EU] policymakers see strategic value in a CBDC, particularly in a rapidly evolving global financial landscape,” says Annabelle Rau, an associate at McDermott Will & Emery in Germany. “However, its success will depend on striking the right balance between innovation, privacy, and financial stability.”
The EU has set a high standard for privacy with its General Data Protection Regulation, Rau notes. “Nonetheless, public trust will be crucial, and addressing concerns around data access, anonymity, and surveillance risks will require clear legal safeguards and transparent communication from policymakers.”
Stablecoins and CBDCs might eventually co-exist, although the importance of their role could vary from country to country, Halaburda suggests.
“China favors state-controlled rails and discourages blockchain-based finance, making the digital yuan likely to prevail,” Rau says. “The EU is regulating stablecoins under MiCA while taking a cautious approach to the digital euro, allowing both to coexist. In the US, stablecoins thrive in the absence of a CBDC, though pending regulations could either strengthen their role or constrain them in favor of a digital dollar.”
Here To Stay?
Whether it be cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, or central bank digital currencies, a consensus appears to be forming that “digital assets are here to stay, with mainstream adoption accelerating as the convergence of traditional and digital finance advances every day,” Boerse Stuttgart Digital’s Sastre Ibáñez says. If so, “corporate CFOs should be aware of the growing importance and adapt by integrating digital assets into their financial strategies while ensuring compliance with evolving regulations.”
Fundamental challenges remain, particularly in governance, risk management, and regulatory oversight. “While some convergence is taking place, particularly in areas such as digital securities and asset tokenization, it is likely that elements of both [crypto and traditional currency] systems will continue to coexist rather than fully merge in the near future,” says Rau.
McLoughlin, at UPHOLD, remains buoyant. Consider only the trillions of dollars locked up in banks today to facilitate international transactions, he argues. Indeed, $10 trillion are held in nostro/vostro accounts globally, according to a December report from Bitso Business. “Imagine,” McLoughlin suggests, “what we could do if those funds were available to power growth instead.”
While cross-border dealmaking accelerates in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East, US M&A faces mounting headwinds from tariffs, recession fears, and regulatory pushback.
M&A activity got off to a strong start in 2025, with global deal value surpassing $1.2 trillion through April, according to Dealogic. However, more is being spent on less, considering the number of transactions is at a two-decade low. Only 6,955 deals were announced in the first quarter; that’s down 16% from the fourth quarter of 2024.
Mounting recession fears, renewed trade tensions, and shifting political winds are weighing heavily on corporate dealmakers and private equity firms—particularly in the US, where valuations remain flat.
“Deals got done in Q1 but it has been slow and will probably get slower as the year progresses. I have been asking for updated 2025 projections but there is uncertainty in the markets and how the tariffs will play out, and a hesitation to provide those 2025 projections,” says David Acharya, managing partner at Acharya Capital Partners. “I have been hearing similar comments from my peers—senior investment partners with investment committee responsibilities.”
Consider the numbers. As of May 1, Dealogic shows US M&A value is at $575.6 billion. That’s down 1% compared to this time last year. Other regions are on the opposite trajectory: Japan, $42 billion (up 133%); Asia, $251.4 billion (73%); Canada, $52.4 billion (54%); Middle East/Africa, $31.4 billion (51%); and Europe, $257.8 billion (7%).
For the numbers to be where they are, investment banks don’t have many mega deals to boast about. In March, Google’s parent company, Alphabet, purchased cybersecurity startup Wiz for about $32 billion. There was also the $16.4 billion agreement between Constellation and Calpine Corp., as well as the $22.8-billion investment from China’s Ministry of Finance into four state-owned banks. In Europe, Austria’s OMV cut a deal with Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. to merge their respective polyolefins businesses; the combined entity proceeded to buy NOVA Chemicals Corp for $13.4 billion.
Technology, finance, health care, utilities, and oil and gas remain the most vibrant sectors across the globe. Technology and finance both exceeded last year’s three-month period in terms of dollars spent.
“In the US, M&A volume has decreased on a year-on-year basis, while most other markets in Asia and Europe have gone up,” Takashi Toyokawa of Ignosi Partners, says. “I’d expect this trend to continue over the next couple of quarters until there’s some level of certainty in the US.”
For the first quarter, the US Commerce Department announced that the economy shrank for the first time in three years. The 0.3% contraction was fueled by businesses scrambling to strategize in response to President Donald Trump’s confusing trade policy.
“While we’re seeing that deals that have been in the works since last year are still getting across the finish line, the uncertainty driven by the imposition of tariffs in the US and increase in long-term interest rates, which in turn has led to market volatility, has definitely caused potential acquirers to think twice before doing deals,” Toyokawa adds.
The current scenario is in stark contrast to what big banks were expecting at the end of 2024 and the start of 2025.
“The pace of mergers and acquisitions around the world gained momentum [in 2024], and there are signs that deal-making will accelerate in 2025,” Stephan Feldgoise and Mark Sorrell, Goldman Sachs’ M&A co-heads, said in a joint statement back in December.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon was also bullish. Just days before Trump’s inauguration, the bank boss remarked: “Businesses are more optimistic about the economy, and they are encouraged by expectations for a more pro-growth agenda and improved collaboration between government and business.”
Not anymore. According to The Wall Street Journal, Dimon recently told investors at IMF meetings that a recession is the best-case outcome.
Hopes that a second Trump term would bring looser M&A regulations have also been dashed. The Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission are proving just as tough as they were during Trump’s first term, as well as under former President Joe Biden. Recent lawsuits blocking Hewlett Packard Enterprise’s $14.3 billion acquisition of Juniper Networks and GTCR’s $611 million Surmodics buyout show that even under Trump, antitrust enforcers aren’t easing up.
The will-they-won’t-they dynamic between U.S. Steel and Tokyo-based Nippon Steel isn’t serving as a useful gauge for how the White House plans on handling M&A regulations, particularly when it’s a cross-border proposal. Under Biden, the deal was blocked due to what the former administration considered national security risks. Trump opposed it last year, but has been indecisive on the matter.
“The market was thinking there would be relief from the harsh anti-merger stance from the Biden administration, not open season on M&A,” Accelerate Fintech’s Julian Klymochko says. “Safe to say, that hasn’t happened.”
Whether M&A pros find that early-year optimism again remains to be seen. After all, hopes were high that pent-up demand, ample capital, and a business-friendly presidential administration would fuel a wave of consolidations.
Instead, dealmaking momentum has stalled, weighed down by rising market volatility and growing economic uncertainty, Andrew Lucano, co-chair of the M&A practice at law firm Seyfarth Shaw, explained.
“Recent US trade policies have introduced significant unpredictability, triggering market swings and prompting caution among deal participants, especially those with exposure to tariff risk,” Lucano says. “Uncertainty has always been one of the greatest inhibitors of dealmaking, and that’s exactly where we are right now. As a result, many players are adopting a ‘wait and see’ approach, at least in the near term, as they assess the full impact of tariffs and any potential retaliatory measures.”
Arab Bank is this year’s Best Bank in the Middle East. CEO Randa Sadik shares how investments in technology and the next generation of clients spurred its growth.
Global Finance: What factors shaped Arab Bank’s results last year?
Randa Sadik: Arab Bank posted a robust performance in 2024, underpinned by broad growth across geographies and business segments. Our solid results were backed by a well-diversified expansion in core banking income with interest and non-interest revenue contributing to sustainable growth in net operating profit.
Arab Bank’s strategic emphasis on expanding beyond its home market continued to pay off, with strong momentum in the high-growth GCC region and international markets. Our global network and digital transformation were key in driving value across corporate, consumer, and wealth management banking segments.
The results underscore the effectiveness of our long-term strategy, which hinges on geographic and income stream diversification to ensure resilience and capture cross-market opportunities.
GF: What digitalization milestones did Arab Bank reach?
Sadik: We advanced our cloud-native applications and accelerated our API-driven development. AI agents will also boost this process by integrating more value-added services for our customers.
For our corporate business, we reengineered our credit origination and approval process to enable end-to-end digital flows that process new credit applications faster, starting in GCC countries. We also revamped our Trade Finance Corporate platform’s user interface and added new services.
We continued our focus on enhancing Arabi Next, our SME digital app, and, among many other things, launched digital onboarding for SME customers in Jordan – a major regional differentiator – alongside a new tailored digital loyalty program and an E2E SME cards management offering. We routed 91% of all SME transactions in Jordan through various digital channels.
Finally, the bank launched Omnify, a Banking as a Service [BaaS] platform. It lets companies embed Arab Bank APIs in their digital apps and enables the bank to leverage opportunities for new open banking regulatory frameworks.
GF: What is Arab Bank doing to reach the next generation of customers?
Sadik: We offer a well-rounded and fully integrated value proposition. We understand that young customers expect much more than traditional banking. They seek personalized, digital-first experiences that align with their dynamic lifestyles and evolving requirements.
Our youth-focused programs begin early. The Junior program starts by instilling financial awareness in children and evolves toward offering tailored banking experiences to teenagers. The Shabab program focuses on youth and young adults, helping them build a solid financial future via fee-free banking, exclusive lifestyle benefits, and a holistic financial proposition. The centerpiece of engagement with this key segment is our Arabi Mobile app, which delivers seamless, end-to-end digital journeys spanning onboarding, investments, and credit facilities.
Equally important is our dedication to sustainability. Through initiatives in financial literacy, continuous innovation, and environmental responsibility, we are staying relevant to younger generations and actively shaping a more inclusive and sustainable future.
GF:What role did AI play in your 2024 performance, and what will it contribute in 2025?
Sadik: Alongside our digital achievements, Arab Bank continued its ambition to become an AI-first organization, capitalizing on our rich data set to automate and personalize AI-based flows to assist our staff in their daily tasks and speed up their decisioning process, affording our customers both richer and more personalized customer engagement and autonomous drive.
By 2024, Arab Bank had over 20 AI-ML models in production covering a range of applications, from gaining better customer insights to improving our risk-based decision-and-detection process. Most of our models were developed internally under a robust governance framework. Still, we also injected third-party AI-based offerings, which let us benefit from the scale effect of market data, such as for customer service chatbots, cyber threats, and fraud alerts.
For 2025, we will continue to deploy these models while embedding generative-AI use cases to automate routine tasks, digitalize risk management, and enhance customer-facing personalized services. As a prerequisite, we provide Arab Bank staff with an effective learning and development program to capitalize on this new opportunity.
The most material examples include, but are not limited to, providing internal chatbots to front-line staff to access product and policy information faster, supporting their training needs, and allowing for a fast decision process
Following a strong performance in the prior year, Islamic financial institutions (IFIs) recorded a steady 2024, with the overall sector’s return and total assets at levels similar to their 2023 performance.
However, there was variation in individual IFIs’ performances; and many winners of Global Finance’s Best Islamic Financial Institutions 2025 achieved growth and profitability beyond their peers.
The strategic and operational aim of the IFIs is to increase digitalization to drive efficiency, gain new customers—particularly at the higher end of retail and commercial banking—and raise competitiveness in challenging banking markets. Previous years saw a notable customer drift from conventional banks to Shariah-compliant institutions, but this trend stabilized in 2024. Retail banking remains the bedrock of IFIs, but most have strengthened their commercial banking service, particularly at the level of small and midsize enterprises. In addition, wealth management activities have become increasingly important.
IFIs’ margins remain healthy and above those of conventional banks. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence data, returns for the Islamic Banking Sector in 2024 were stable at 1.7%, matching the prior year’s. The larger IFIs, which dominate their responsive markets, continue to perform above average for the sector, achieving a return on assets of 1.9%, which reflects funding advantages and cost efficiencies.
Islamic banks’ overall sector balance sheet was also stable last year. The financial profile of IFIs remains very good, with an average ratio of capital to risk-weighted assets of nearly 20%. The nonperforming-loan ratio is 3%, with good coverage in place.
The 2025 Best Islamic Financial Institutions award winners have strengthened their market position, continued with product innovation, raised service quality, and recorded good financial results. These IFIs are well managed and have good governance. These award winners continue to innovate in delivery and access.
Kuwait Finance House (KFH) won as the World’s Best Islamic Financial Institution for 2025. It is the second-largest Islamic bank globally and is active in the Middle East, Asia, and Europe. “KFH demonstrated its ability to promote the future of Islamic finance worldwide,” said KFH Group CEO Khaled AlShamlan on a February earnings webcast. “This is evident in the successful and record-breaking conversion of Ahli United Bank in Bahrain, the UK, and Egypt to Islamic banking, achieved with high efficiency.”
Standard Chartered Saadiq (SCS) earned the Best Islamic International Bank title,
Global Finance’s newest award. SCS is Standard Chartered Banking’s global Islamic network, which spans Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. It combines Shariah expertise with a strong product portfolio.SCS has been involved in Islamic banking for over 16 years and is the only international bank with a complete Islamic-financing product suite.
Malaysia’s Maybank Islamic took home the award as Best Islamic Financial Institution in Asia. Maybank is the largest Islamic bank in Southeast Asia. In 2024, Maybank expanded it’s international presence by launching Islamic services in the Philippines. The bank is also renowned for Islamic financial innovation.
Global Winners
Khaled Yousef AlShamlan, CEO, Kuwait Finance House
World’s Best Islamic Financial Institution | KUWAIT FINANCE HOUSE
Kuwait Finance House (KFH) wins our award as the World’s Best Islamic Financial Institution for strengthening its franchise in several markets, for financing innovation, and for its overall operating performance. KFH provides services to customers in the Middle East, Europe, and Asia, through extensive distribution channels, with an increasing emphasis on digitalization. The bank has subsidiaries in Kuwait, Turkey, Egypt, Bahrain, Iraq, Malaysia, the UK, and Germany.
KFH has made significant strides toward digital transformation in risk management, adopting the latest advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, and advanced analytics, to enhance risk measurement and monitoring. Tam Digital Bank, KFH’s digital bank in Kuwait, recorded strong customer numbers and transaction growth.
The banking group’s financial profile is very sound. A successful capital-management program led to capital adequacy ratio (CAR) of 19.9%, considerably exceeding regulatory requirements and supporting growth over the coming years. Return on average assets is good at 1.8%, and loan asset-quality metrics are robust. KFH’s Islamic banking products and services cover commercial, retail, and corporate banking; as well as real estate, trade finance, project finance, asset management, and investments.
Bilal Parviaz, CEO, Standard Chartered Saadiq
Best Islamic International Bank | STANDARD CHARTERED SAADIQ
Standard Chartered Saadiq (SCS) receives the inaugural award as Best Islamic International Bank – a new and important category. SCS is the global Islamic network for Standard Chartered Banking (SCB) and spans Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, combining significant Shariah expertise with a strong product portfolio. SCB has been involved in Islamic banking for over 30 years and is the only international bank with a complete Islamic-financing product suite across consumer, private, business, corporate, and institutional banking segments. This includes cash, trade, treasury, and capital-market products.
The network covers 70% of the Muslim world, offering strong Islamic wealth and retail banking services, and is a market leader in sukuk issuances. It has substantial experience structuring Islamic solutions. Leveraging SCB’s global environmental, social, and governance (ESG) expertise, Saadiq offers market-leading, Shariah-compliant, sustainable-financing offerings, including transition finance, ESG advisory, and sustainable deposits.
Ahmed Hashem, CEO, Dukhan Bank
Best Islamic Private Bank | DUKHAN BANK
Dukhan Bank‘s Private Banking offers financing, banking, and investmetn products and services for high net worth individuals (HNWIs) and ultra high net worth individuals (UHNWIs). Supported by a large team of equity specialists, Dukhan’s portfolio-management services are extensive and include equity markets, sukuk, mutual funds, and capital-protected products.
Dukhan Bank successfully issued an $800 million, five-year, senior unsecured sukuk in 2024 – the largest issue achievement by a Qatari Islamic bank since 2020. This financing will help the bank to further strengthen its private banking position. The bank’s overall revenue stream is diversified, but retail and private banking contributed to a 38% increase in group revenue for 2024.
Adel Al-Majed, Group CEO, Boubyan Bank
Best Islamic Bank for CSR| BOUBYAN BANK
Boubyan Bank‘s 2024 corporate social responsibility (CSR) strategy focused on community initiatives and contributions covering several key aspects, such as sustainability, sports, well-being, and empowerment of youths and entrepreneurs.
Working toward a more inclusive and sustainable future for everybody, Boubyan continued its efforts during 2024 to drive sustainable growth across all of its group’s companies while maintaining its core values. The bank’s approach to CSR is not confined to a single department’s performance; rather, all the bank’s operations are socially responsible and considered key participants.
Mohamed Abdelbary, CEO, Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank
Best Islamic Bank for ESG| ABU DHABI ISLAMIC BANK
Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank (ADIB) made significant progress in advancing its sustainability agenda in 2024. The bank implemented multifaceted strategies addressing operational and financed emissions, including energy-efficiency initiatives, a sustainable-finance strategy, and responsible procurement practices. These efforts underscore ADIB’s dedication to reducing environmental impacts while aligning with global sustainability objectives. ADIB’s achievements have been recognised through ESG-rating upgrades by international agencies, reflecting the strength of its ESG practices and framework.
ADIB has strengthened its focus on integrating ESG principles into its operations and strategic decision-making. A landmark achievement was the issuance in 2023 of the world’s largest green sukuk by a bank, raising $500 million. During 2024, the bank also established new board committees, including its ESG Committee.
Best Islamic Retail Bank| KUWAIT FINANCE HOUSE
Kuwait Finance House has a high-quality retail banking operation across many markets. Its performance wins the bank the Best Islamic Retail Bank award. KFH recorded a 13% increase in personal finance for 2024 and a 25% increase in transactions. The bank has been directing efforts toward enhancing innovation and digital transformation. KFH offers a wide range of banking products, services, and solutions, tailored to meet the evolving needs of retail customers. The bank introduced an array of banking services through its KFHOnline app. Tam, its Shariah-compliant digital bank, continues to experience good growth. Acquiring Ahli United Bank gave KFH a good presence across most of the Gulf regional. Internationally, KFH has retail banking activities in Turkey, Germany, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, the UK, Iraq, and Egypt. In Kuwait, it dominates the Islamic financing and deposit market.
Farid Al Mulla, CEO, Emirates Islamic Bank
Best Islamic Corporate Bank| EMIRATES ISLAMIC BANK
Emirates Islamic Bank (EIB) recorded a strong year in Corporate Banking for 2024, with the division achieving a record annual income of 30%. Customer financing grew considerably, by 40%; and deposits grew by 39%. EIB experience increased execution of ESG financing, with over $3.5 billion in ESG-related syndicated financing, including sustainability-linked facilities.
In addition, there was a significant rise in club/syndicated financing. EIB successfully managed its debut $500 million Islamic syndicated facility. The financing provided liquidity required to manage targeted growth. EIB’s corporate banking division provides a full-fledged value proposition consisting of working capital finance, trade finance, project finance, syndicate and structured finance, and cash management services, to large and midsize corporates, financial institutions, sovereigns, and government-related entities. The bank has always been a pioneer in providing Shariah-compliant solutions and structures, including revolving credit facilities, musharaka structures, and cash and trade products and services.
Hisham Alrayes, CEO, GFH Financial Group
Best Islamic Investment Bank| GFH FINANCIAL GROUP
Bahrain-headquartered GFH Financial Group earned the Best Islamic Investment Bank award for its investment deals and placements. These included acting as one of the joint lead managers and book runners for the successful issuance of a $500 million, five-year sukuk by Arabian Centers Company, Saudi Arabia’s largest shopping mall owner, developer, and operator. GFH concluded Shariah-compliant investments totaling $450 million in the US real estate sector in early 2024.
Through GFH’s asset management arm, it successfully launched and closed its seventh Shariah-compliant logistics and industrial fund in the US. The fund comprises of two types of assets: industrial and transportation logistics. The fund’s portfolio includes 25 of these with a total transaction value of $300 million. In October 2024, GFH issued a $500 million, five-year sukuk. The year also saw GFH launch a Shariah-compliant investor mobile app. GFH and Panattoni Saudi Arabia signed a strategic Shariah-compliant partnership last year to develop logistics facilities in the kingdom. The collaboration focuses on creating high-quality logistics and industrial infrastructure across key cities, including Riyadh, Jeddah, and Dammam, with a planned investment of $500 million over the next five years.
Best Sukuk Bank| STANDARD CHARTERED SAADIQ
Standard Chartered Saadiq has long held a leading position in the global sukuk market, managing and structuring many instruments. This remained so in 2024. Standard Chartered holds first-place position in the International Sukuk League Tables. SCS has used its strong presence across local markets in Asia and the Middle East to enable issuers from the Middle East to tap domestic market in Asia and vice versa. Standard Chartered Saadiq is also a leading Islamic sustainable finance institution. It has a track record of market-first transactions and offers sustainable products such as green sukuk.
Muhammad Currim Oozeer, CEO, Sidra Capital
Best Islamic Fund Manager| SIDRA CAPITAL
Sidra Capital, headquartered in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, is a leading alternative Shariah-compliant asset manager. It also has offices in Riyadh, London, Dubai, and Singapore. Sidra focuses on global income-generating real estate, private finance, and private equity. The company has made several recent deals. Sidra Capital established the 2 billion Saudi riyal (about $533 million) Al-Bushra Infrastructure Development Fund in partnership with project developer Sager Group. The fund is dedicated to developing raw land covering 734,744 square meters (about 181.6 acres) in the Al-Aziziyah district of the holy city of Mecca. The project will transform the land into serviced plots, aligning with the objectives of Saudi Vision to drive sustainable economic growth and enhance the kingdom’s appeal to foreign investors. Knowledge Economic City, a multi-billion dollar project in Medina, signed a framework agreement with Sidra Capital and Raseel Properties to establish a REIT.
Best Islamic SME Bank| KUWAIT FINANCE HOUSE
Kuwait Finance House had a very strong year across all of KFH’s markets in the small and mid-size enterprise (SME) banking sector. The bank has formidable position in the Kuwaiti SME market, possessing the most extensive portfolio among all local banks. in 2024, its SME portfolio grew 14% by assets and 13% by clients. KFH is one of the key banks for Kuwait’s National Fund for SME Development. The bank launched a corporate mobile app as part of the e-Corp OMNI channel project and added new services throughout 2024.
Best Islamic Trade Finance Provider| STANDARD CHARTERED SAADIQ
Standard Chartered Saadiq offers unique Islamic solutions that help meet its clients’ Shariah trade financing and investment needs. The bank has supported many SMEs and corporates by providing offerings across term loans, trade working capital, and cash, backed by its state-of-the-art Straight2Bank online banking and network capabilities. SCS also undertook a project to migrate its commodity murabaha-based trade and financing products to the ceiling rate structure. Before the ceiling-rate structure, the Shariah contract had been conducted at the transactional level for every disbursement, extension, or other action. This project has progressed, helping the bank to improve transaction-turnaround time for clients, reduce operational and Shariah risk for the bank, and align Islamic trade and financing products with conventional equivalents in the market.
Best Takaful Provider| KUWAIT FINANCE HOUSE
Kuwait Finance House‘s KFH Takaful Insurance company provides comprehensive, innovative, and Shariah-compliant insurance services. The company examines customer needs and works to provide the best services through multiple distribution channels that serve customers on a large scale. It has a broad portfolio of insurance products with financial backing from KFH.
Best Islamic Project Finance Provider| KUWAIT FINANCE HOUSE
Kuwait Finance House remains the leading project finance provider in key Middle Eastern markets. In 2024, it continued financing many companies and mega projects at local and regional levels. KFH financed deals totaling about 325 million Kuwaiti dinars (about
$1.1 billion) in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt. KFH also partici- pated in syndicated financing deals. Domestically, KFH played a pivotal role in the local economy by financing large-scale projects across various sectors, most notably real estate projects worth 313 million dinars. Furthermore, KFH contributed to development of the local infrastructure by offering additional financing for the telecommunication industry.
Dato’ Muzaffar Hisham, CEO, Maybank Islamic
Best Islamic Asset Manager| MAYBANK ISLAMIC
Maybank Islamic (MI) is an innovative leading Islamic asset manager. MI wins the Best Islamic Asset Manager award due to many product and service developments in 2024. The bank bridges Shariah fund flows across many key markets and has a centralized investment platform. MI’s target market includes retail and institutional investors. Islamic Portfolio Financing, the first such by a Malaysian bank, was launched in 2024. This portfolio empowers customers to optimize the value of their assets by capitalizing on avail- able investments and leveraging current market opportunities. Avaloq is banking software and a digital offering for wealth management, core banking, and digital banking services. MI deployed the Islamic Avaloq platform in October 2024. It offers an integrated system for private banking products, enhancing client portfolio management, adviser services, and back-office efficiency. Expanding its suite of Shariah-compliant products in the market, the bank increased its Shariah-compliant unit trust offering to 14 funds.
Regional Winners
Asia | MAYBANK ISLAMIC
Maybank Islamic is the flagship Islamic institution in Asia. The bank is often first in introducing innovative Shariah-compliant financial products. It’s primary market is Malaysia, where it controls approximately 30% of Islamic assets; but its activities also extend across other Asian countries. MI is the largest Islamic bank in Southeast Asia and fifth biggest globally. In 2024, it expended its international presence by launching in the Philippines. MI has prominent operations in Singapore, Indonesia, and Hong Kong. The bank’s financial metrics are solid, with a strong capital base, good returns, and net profit growing in 2024. The bank holds a notable position in the global sukuk market.
Middle East | KUWAIT FINANCE HOUSE
Kuwait Finance House is also the winner of the Middle East regional award. In addition to dominating the Islamic banking sector in Kuwait, KFH has strong market positions in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. It is also active in cross-border transactions, financing, and investment throughout the Middle East. KFH has also been aided by successful organic growth and acquisitions over the years
Country and Territory Winners
Bahrain | AHLI UNITED BANK BAHRAIN
Ahli United Bank Bahrain (AUBB) has raised its market position significantly over the past two years. Now part of KFH, it has fully converted to an Islamic bank. In late 2024, the bank successfully executed Bahrain’s first fully automated Shariah-compliant sup- ply chain finance transaction. The bank created a collaborative payable finance ecosystem on its business-to-business platform, where the seller could raise an invoice and pass it to the buyer for approval. Last year saw significant growth in AUBB’s virtual accounts management, incorporating microfinancing. The bank expanded its host-to-host and application programming interface (API) integration capabilities beyond payments and reconciliation to include trade finance solutions.
Brunei Darussalam | BANK ISLAM BRUNEI DARUSSALAM
With assets of $8 billion, Bank Islam Brunei Darussalam has the dominant position in Islamic finance in Brunei Darussalam. In 2024, the bank invested in a new core banking system. The bank’s net profit was $115 million in 2024, with a healthy return on assets (ROA) of 1.4%. The balance is well capitalized with a CAR of 17.9%.
Egypt | ADIB EGYPT
The leading institution in Egypt’s Islamic banking sector in terms of performance, Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank Egypt (ADIB EGYPT) had a good 2024, with net income growing by a third. The bank has assets of $5 billion. Apart from mainstream Islamic financing, ADIB Egypt offers investment banking, leasing, asset management, and microfinance. ADIB Egypt works closely with international financing agencies such as the International Finance Corporation and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
Indonesia | BANK SYARIAH INDONESIA
Bank Syariah Indonesia remains Indonesia’s largest Islamic bank and the country’s sixth-largest bank overall, with assets of $25 billion. The balance sheet increased robustly in 2024, as did net profit and returns. With most of the large Indonesian population being Muslim, Islamic financing in the country is growing rapidly.
Jordan | JORDAN ISLAMIC BANK
Jordan Islamic Bank (JIB) main- tains the dominant Islamic bank- ing franchise in Jordan, aided by good financials, including a CAR of 20%. JIB controls nearly half of the Islamic banking sector in the country and 10% of total banking-sector assets. Both financing and deposits continue to expand, and its digital- banking platform is expanding. Well managed, JIB has good prospects.
Kuwait | BOUBYAN BANK
Boubyan Bank stands apart as the leading technology-backed bank in Kuwait. Total assets are $30 billion, with net profits of $315 million in 2024—up by 20%. The bank has positioned itself as a leading digital force in the banking sector. Its focus on digital transformation is evident, segmenting services into customer-facing digital products and internal services. The latter support digital and traditional channels, automating processes to enhance efficiency. Boubyan’s Nomo Bank, the first Shariah-compliant digital bank designed for individuals, has been successful. Nomo’s launch of its Instant Access Saver, available in three currencies, has stimulated strong demand. Extending the Nomo liabilities proposition through- out 2024 resulted in a 70% increase in total balances.
Malaysia | MAYBANK ISLAMIC
In Malaysia’s Islamic financing and investment areas, Maybank Islamic holds the dominant market position. The bank is market savvy and innovative and has recorded impressive long-term performance.
Morocco | BANK ASSAFA
Owned by Morocco’s largest bank, Attijariwafa, Bank Assafa had a good year in 2024, with 41 branches covering the major cities of Morocco. The bank provides a range of services, from every- day banking operations to savings products and takaful. In terms of financing, it supports its clients through diversified offerings, including real estate, automobiles, equipment, and the purchase of construction materials.
Oman | AHLI ISLAMIC OMAN
Ahli Islamic Oman posted robust growth. The bank caters to all customer segments: institutional, corporate, SME, and retail. It was the first Islamic bank in Oman to digitally onboard customers through its mobile banking platform and the first to offer IPO leverage. Ahli Islamic has seen a continued expansion of retail business. Shariah-compliant investment and financial offerings for private banking customers have also gained traction.
Pakistan | FAYSAL BANK PAKISTAN
Faysal Bank Pakistan is one of the largest banks in Pakistan, with over 700 branches. Its total assets grew by 14% in 2024, and profit before tax recorded a 22% rise. The bank has achieved growth in new customers. Faysal continued to invest in digital transformation, upgrading its online banking plat- form, mobile applications, and payment systems. Digital channels have seen significant growth, with a 66% increase in internet and mobile banking transactions and a 34% rise in mobile banking subscribers.
Qatar | QATAR ISLAMIC BANK
Qatar Islamic Bank (QIB) is the largest Islamic bank in Qatar, controlling approximately 36% of the total assets of listed Islamic banks. It is Qatar’s second-largest bank overall in terms of total assets, financing assets, and net profit. QIB has a strong financial profile – capital adequacy of 21% – with continued growth in recent years and a robust risk management framework. It has significant government support, with the Qatar Investment Authority, the country’s sovereign wealth fund, as its largest shareholder. In 2024, QIB’s assets were $55 billion and net profit was $1.3 billion.
Saudi Arabia | ALINMA BANK
Alinma Bank is the fourth-largest Islamic bank globally, with assets of $74 billion. It is the young- est bank in Saudi Arabia but has made significant strides since its establishment in 2006 and now controls 6.5% of assets and 7.7% of deposits. Alinma ranks second in the kingdom regarding return on equity (ROE) and ROA. In 2024, the bank increased its capital from 20 billion to 25 billion Saudi riyals via stock dividends, to fund the next growth stage. It has focused on building a digital factory and applying the latest technologies: advanced analytics, AI, and Big Data. In 2024, it launched the Alinma New API Portal and Alinma Business Platform. The bank focuses on digitally savvy customers.
Sri Lanka | AMANA BANK
Amana Bank, the leading Islamic bank in Sri Lanka, offers the full spectrum of retail banking, SME banking, corporate banking, and treasury and trade finance services. Amana performed strongly in 2024, with advances growing by 24% and deposits up by 16%. Net profit was 28% higher last year. Increased trade volumes from SME and corporate customers as well as digital transactions drove this performance.
Tunisia | AL BARAKA BANK TUNISIE
A subsidiary of Al Baraka Banking Group of Bahrain, Al BarakaBank Tunisie offers several Islamic banking products and services and continues to benefit from the Al Baraka Group. Major achievements for the bank in 2024 included opening over 13,000 new accounts and upgrading its mobile app with several new features. Total assets were up by 27% in 2024, with financing growing by 32%.
Turkey | KUVEYT TURK KATILIM BANKASI
Kuveyt Turk Katilim Bankasi (KTKB) operates throughout Turkey, supported by an extensive branch network. It also oper- ates an Islamic bank in Germany named KT Bank. KTKB is the largest Islamic bank in Turkey, with assets of $26 billion and equity of $2.5 billion.Financing growth was over 10% in 2024. Net profit rose in 2024 to $1.1 billion, with ROA a high 4.7%. KTKB has an office in Bahrain that serves as a bridge between Turkey and the Gulf countries. Its parent banks is KFH.
UAE | EMIRATES ISLAMIC BANK
Emirates Islamic Bank’s parent is Emirates NBD. With assets of $30 billion, EIB’s market position strengthened considerably in 2024. The bank’s customer base grew strongly across the retail, SME, and corporate banking divisions. It also launched wealth and investment products catering to HNWIs and affluent customers. Emirates Islamic was the first Islamic bank in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to launch a Shariah-compliant digital wealth offering and equity trading via a mobile banking app. It also was the first Islamic bank to offer fractional sukuk participation on its digital wealth platform. Its Islamic banking areas recorded a record yearly income in 2024 on the back of growth in customer financings and deposits. Retail banking net profit increased by 69%.
Wee Ee Cheong, deputy chairman and CEO of United Overseas Bank (UOB), named the Best Bank in Asia-Pacific, discusses what 2025 will bring.
Global Finance:What drove UOB’s performance in 2024?
Wee Ee Cheong: UOB is strategically reshaping our business mix to diversify our revenue engines, with a disciplined approach to managing our balance sheet and growing fee-based income.
In wholesale banking, our enhanced platforms and sector-specific solutions help finance cross-border businesses, leading to higher fees and cross-border income. We aim to be the number-one cross-border trade bank in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). With an extensive regional footprint and our combination of strong sector expertise and local-market knowledge enables us to help businesses navigate market complexities and to seize opportunities in ASEAN.
In retail banking, the acquisition of the Citigroup consumer-banking business in four Southeast Asian markets has enabled us to scale our credit card and brought cross-selling opportunities to our 8.4 million customers. Consequently, our card fees and wealth management income have seen robust growth. We continue to invest in our UOB TMRW digital banking app, which is being rolled out across our key markets.
These diversified income drivers are recurring, and demonstrate results. We see tremendous opportunities to grow our franchise and will be steadfast and focused in our execution.
GF: What are the greatest challenges UOB face in 2025?
Wee: We expect disruptions, and we expect demand to slow in the immediate future due to rising geopolitical risks and tariffs. Businesses and countries will face greater urgency, in a multipolar world order, to diversify their markets, integrate more closely regionally, and innovate to create more value.
With its population of 600 million, ASEAN is driven by megatrends such as regional economic and trade integration, supply chain resilience, digital innovation, and sustainability. We believe in ASEAN’s resilience.
As global trade and supply chains transform significantly, ASEAN remains an attractive market. UOB’s regional footprint and service offerings position us to seize emerging opportunities in the mid to long term.
To stay ahead of rapid technological change, we place innovation at the core of our strategy-enhancing efficiency, unlocking new opportunities, and strengthening our competitive edge.
GF: Do you expect sustainable finance to continue to grow in 2025?
Wee: Economic opportunities around decarbonization continue to drive sustainable-financing flows in Asia, and the region continues to benefit from sustainable developments. UOB’s net-zero commitment is aligned with Singapore’s commitment to net zero by 2050. We remain on track for all five of our priority sectors—power, automotive, real estate, construction, and steel—for which we have set net-zero targets.
To meet our targets, we have an end-to-end net-zero operationalization program covering governance, policies, capacity-building, technology, and pragmatic measures to support our clients’ transition to a sustainable economy. This program involves developing high-quality green-financing products and engaging with clients to promote sustainable practices.
Our clients’ demand for sustainable financing continues to grow; and as of December 2024, our sustainable financing portfolio had increased 43% year over year to more than 57 billion Singapore dollars ($41.9 billion).
GF: What is the bank doing to capture the next generation of customers?
Wee: The bank seeks to understand the aspirations, lifestyles, and expectations of the next generation of customers by systematically collecting and analyzing their feedback. We aim to go beyond financial needs to support young businesses’ digitalization, sustainability, and regionalization needs as they grow and scale.
Our digital banking platforms: UOB TMRW, UOB Infinity, and the UOB SME app, enable younger customers to access on-the-go financial management through an omnichannel approach. Our lifestyle partnerships for concerts and top acts bring renowned performances and deliver exciting lifestyle experiences for our younger customers across the region.
For our business customers, we recognize the importance of equipping the next generation of leaders with skills, insights, and connections necessary to preserve family and business legacies.
Our programs include The Business Circle, which offers masterclasses, workshops, and overseas business missions, on digital transformation, sustainability, and business diversification. The Next Gen Programme prepares successors for future responsibilities, enhancing their competencies to protect and grow inherited wealth with sessions focused on entrepreneurship, digital innovation, and technology.
Canada’s newly elected Prime Minister, Mark Carney, is the only central bank governor to have received an “A” grade from Global Finance magazine for his tenure in two different countries.
The Liberal Party of Canada pulled off a stunning upset in the national election. By choosing Mark Carney—the former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England—as its new leader, the party overcame a 25-point polling deficit under a battered Justin Trudeau to defeat Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party and secure a fresh fourth parliamentary mandate—an unprecedented feat in Canadian politics. Carney and his party are expected to win most of the 343 seats in Parliament, though they will likely fall short of an outright majority (at the time of publication, the Liberals were leading with 169 seats).
Carney earned high marks as a central banker during both the global financial crisis and Brexit. Global Finance magazine awarded him an “A” grade in its annual Central Banker Report Cards in 2012 during his tenure in Canada, and again in 2016 in the UK, along with two “A-minus” grades in 2018 and 2019. He led the Bank of Canada from 2008 to 2013 and the Bank of England from 2013 to 2020. Unlike Poilievre, Carney has never held elected office and is, in many ways, a newcomer to frontline politics.
The Canada Mark Carney will lead is a very different one than any of his predecessors have in recent memory. With Donald Trump back in office, Canada has united against the imposition of a trade war by the US with tariffs that threaten economic stability, in areas such as autos, lumber and aluminum, as well as a president who has stated he would like to erase the border and make Canada the 51st state. Canadians have been shunning American products and cancelling vacations to the US in protest. In many respects, Trump’s policies, which where a major talking point of all candidates during the run up to the election, were the biggest influence in putting Carney in office.
When Parliament resumes, Carney has promised to implement an agenda that will fight an economic war with its biggest trading partner and oldest ally. The new prime minister has promised to sit down with President Trump and reconvene a conversation on trade they started when Carney took over from Trudeau after he was made head of the Liberal Party in early March. Also, a middle-class tax cut has been promised that he says will save two-income families up to C$825 ($594) per year.
Because of a massive housing shortage in the country, the Liberals have promised to create a “Build Canada Homes” policy that would double the speed of construction to 500,000 homes per year and would invest C$35 billion for prefabricated home builders and low-cost financing capital for builders. In other areas often difficult to navigate in Canada, Carney has promised to look at reducing interprovincial trade barriers as well as strengthening the country’s ability to produce and export energy.
Carney’s previous roles and international experience make him a known quantity to leaders overseas. After his victory, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on X, formerly Twitter, “The bond between Europe and Canada is strong — and growing stronger. I look forward to working closely together, both bilaterally and within the G7. We’ll defend our shared democratic values, promote multilateralism, and champion free and fair trade.”
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said in a statement that the connections between Carney and the U.K., stemming from his time as governor of the Bank of England, are extremely important. “With your leadership, and personal ties to the U.K., I know the relationship between our two countries will continue to grow,” Starmer added.
Those ties will become even more important as Canada pivots from a north-south economic orientation toward stronger ties with Europe. Carney’s first trips as Liberal Party leader in March were to Paris and London, where he told French President Emmanuel Macron that Canada was the “most European of non-European countries.” With his leadership secure and the election behind him, Carney will face his first international test as prime minister in June, when he hosts the G7 Leaders’ Summit in Kananaskis, Alberta.
