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Trump’s new wave of protectionism is shaking faith in the US dollar and prompting nations to rewire trade and financial relationships.

The global trade order has entered a period of profound uncertainty. Longstanding alliances are shifting, financial norms are being questioned, and countries are scrambling to revamp their economic strategies. Globalization isn’t dead, however; it’s just reassembling.

Much of the disruption begins in the US, where President Donald Trump’s abrupt, aggressive shift in trade policy has injected a new volatility into global markets. His “Liberation Day” tariff package, unveiled April 2, aimed to revive domestic manufacturing by imposing steep duties on imports, promising a new “golden age of America” powered by reshored jobs and greater market access for US goods abroad.

Rather than resetting the global playing field, Trump’s trade shock has set off a cascade of recalibrations. The US dollar has weakened, its role as a reserve currency is being reevaluated, and foreign investors are quietly retreating from US assets. At its lowest point in early May, the US dollar index had fallen 8.9% year-to-date before partially recovering. Treasury bonds, once a byword for safety, are being shed at an accelerating pace.

“We have been arguing over the last few months that the market is reducing its willingness to fund the US twin deficits,” George Saravelos, global head of foreign exchange research at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a recent note. “We worry this is brewing a major problem for the dollar—and potentially the US bond market too.”

As the US continues one-on-one tariff negotiations with China and more than 100 other governments, other countries aren’t waiting for Washington to set the rules. From Latin America to Asia and the Middle East, trade alliances are being redrawn and export strategies are shifting. The map of global commerce is changing in real time.

Call it the Great Realignment.

For over 50 years, the US has occupied a peculiar place in the global trading landscape, importing vast volumes of consumer goods and relying on foreign capital to finance the resulting trade deficits. Foreign governments bought trillions in US Treasury bonds, cementing the dollar’s dominance as a global reserve currency. That “exorbitant privilege,” as it’s sometimes called, is now under pressure.

“China doesn’t mind the decoupling; it’s only the speed that is upsetting them.”

Andrew Polk, Trivium China

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Washington’s pivot toward tariffs and economic nationalism is forcing allies and rivals alike to reconsider their exposure to the US system.

“Unpredictable and maximalist US policies, such as claims on territory owned by traditional US allies, serve to increase concerns about coercion and lead states to insure against it,” Deutsche Bank’s macro strategists, Oliver Hardy and colleagues, wrote in a May note, “e.g., by reducing reliance on the US financial system and the dollar as a medium of exchange and store of value. Moreover, as alternatives become more developed, the opportunity cost of moving away from US financial networks declines.”

The US-China dynamic remains central. After the US imposed 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, Beijing responded with 125% levies on US exports. A 90-day truce was agreed to in Geneva in May, scaling back tariffs to 30% and 10%, respectively. While the deal provides temporary relief, it has not erased concerns that the world’s two largest economies may be heading toward a long-term decoupling.

New Alliances Take Shape

Other governments aren’t standing still. Even as the US pursues a broad slate of trade talks, it has announced only one new agreement so far—a framework deal with Britain, signed in May, many details of which have yet to be worked out. Meanwhile, many countries are accelerating their own trade diversification strategies to hedge against further disruptions.

The effects of this realignment are already playing out on the ground, nowhere more clearly than in Latin America, where some of the biggest beneficiaries of the Trump policy are located. As US trade relationships grow more uncertain, many of its former hemispheric partners are deepening ties with China and other global players to safeguard their export markets.

Even before the current tariffs were announced, Chinese imports of US agricultural products had declined 14% to $29.25 billion in 2024, which followed a 20% decline in 2023, a legacy of the first Trump Administration’s earlier round of tariff hikes targeting Beijing. By contrast, Brazil exported $49.7 billion in agriculture to China last year, with soybeans the main export crop. Eyeing an opportunity to replace US farm exports to China, Brazil sent a 150-member trade delegation, its largest ever, to Beijing in May, headed by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and opened a new office in Beijing to promote coffee and other exports.

Meanwhile, China signed a letter of intent with Argentine exporters to buy $900 million worth of soybeans, corn, and vegetable oil to avoid sourcing them from US farmers, putting further pressure on Washington.

It’s not only the Chinese who are shopping for South America’s agricultural products.

“There are increasing opportunities for Latin American countries to strengthen trade links with both Asia and Europe,” says Andrés Abadía, chief Latin America economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. The EU signed an agreement with the Mercosur countries—Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay—in December, he notes, creating a free trade area between the two blocs, a market encompassing a quarter of global GDP. The pact, when ratified, will remove 90% of tariffs on agricultural exports to Europe and the EU’s industrial exports to Mercosur countries.

The new attention is welcome in Latin America—up to a point.

Asian countries are strengthening trade ties with the economies of Peru, Chile, and Colombia. But with Chinese exports to the US becoming problematic, more cheap goods from China could be entering the Latin American region, “which could cause problems, especially for emerging Latin American manufacturing sectors,” Abadía warns.

The first signs of this shift emerged in April, when China reported a 21% decline in goods shipments to the US. At the same time, exports to Latin America were $43.8 billion, more than double the $21.2 billion reported in the same period in 2024. Chinese exports to Europe rose to $46 billion in April, up from $43 billion in April 2024.

The Europeans are also concerned about a flood of cheap Chinese imports. In April, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen spoke with Chinese Premier Li Qiang about preventing a repeat of the wave of Chinese goods that washed over the EU during the first Trump presidency. There is a need for “a negotiated resolution” to the growing trade imbalance, von der Leyen warned. In an apparent olive branch to the Europeans, China lifted sanctions on several members of the European Parliament.

The European Union is also trying to broaden its trade relations elsewhere by putting finishing touches on a free trade deal with India, which it hopes to conclude by the end of this year.

“We both stand to gain from a world of cooperation and working together,” von der Leyen said when she met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi in February to discuss the agreement. The EU is India’s largest trade partner, importing $77 billion worth of goods in 2024, eclipsing both the US and China.

Canada offers another example of diversification away from the US. While Canadian goods exports to the US fell 6.6% in March, the biggest drop since the start of the pandemic, exports to other countries rose 24.8%, driven by commodities like oil and gold, which nearly offset the loss from the US market. A big part of the export decline consisted of a decrease in automobile shipments, which now face a 25% tariff.

Not only did Canadians buy fewer US goods, but fewer Canadians chose to vacation in their neighbor to the south in response to President Trump’s comments about annexing Canada as the 51st US state. In March, the number of Canadians crossing the border by car fell 32% compared to a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada; air travel fell 13.5% in the same period.

Canada’s new prime minister, Mark Carney, visited Trump in Washington in early May, but they did not announce any progress on a trade deal.

China’s Dilemma

China has been taking steps to prepare for a trade war with the US ever since Trump’s first term, notes Andrew Polk, cofounder of Trivium China, a business consultancy in Beijing.

“They have already reordered their trade flows and will do more with Europe and Southeast Asia,” he observes. “They don’t mind the decoupling all that much; it’s only the speed with which it happened that is upsetting them.”

As noted earlier, China is quickly replacing the US as a source of agricultural products, with increased imports from Latin America, Canada, and Australia. The Chinese are keenly aware that midwestern US farm states tend to vote Republican and hope the loss of business will bring pressure to bear on the Administration.

But China is also eager to develop new markets to replace the US, which imported $438 billion worth of Chinese products last year. Soon after Trump declared “Liberation Day” in April, putting heavy tariffs not only on China but on exports from Vietnam and Cambodia, Premier Xi Jinping visited Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia to demonstrate that China is a more reliable partner, signing 45 cooperation agreements covering trade, infrastructure, science and technology, and supply chains.

Southeast Asian countries are in a bind since they depend on China for investment and inputs and the US as a market for their finished goods.

The Trump Administration is attempting to crack down on the practice of transshipment, whereby partially finished Chinese goods are sent to Vietnam and Cambodia and then re-exported after minor changes. Trump announced a 45% tariff on Vietnamese products, for example, but paused it for 90 days while a trade deal is being negotiated. US imports from Vietnam in April were up 34% from a year earlier, driven by US companies frontloading orders ahead of the new tariffs.

Washington, of course, would like to isolate China economically from other Asian countries. But Rajiv Biswas, CEO of Asia-Pacific Economics, a Singaporebased consultancy, doesn’t think that policy is likely to succeed.

“China is such an important market for many countries, I don’t think any of the countries in East Asia want to choose sides,” he says, noting that while Australia is a close security partner of the US, China buys one-third of the country’s exports. “They’re very uncomfortable with the situation where they’re being asked to pick.”

Similarly, while China and Japan have their political differences, China is Japan’s largest trade partner and Japan is China’s second largest.

And when Chinese businesses suffered a virtual shutdown in trade, Beijing responded with an economic stimulus plan that included a 10-basis-point cut to the key policy interest rate, a reduction in banks’ reserve requirements—freeing up $138 billion in additional liquidity—and a mortgage rate cut to support home purchases.

Dollar’s Domination Dented

Historically, China has allowed the yuan to weaken against the dollar to blunt the impact of US tariffs. That dynamic briefly held in early 2025, when the yuan dipped to 7.33 to the dollar after Trump’s tariff plans were unveiled. But as the dollar began its own slide, the picture shifted. By later May, the yuan had appreciated to 7.20, reflecting broader pressure on the greenback.

The dollar’s decline has spurred rapid shifts in capital flows. Japanese investors—long major holders of US Treasuries—began selling off US assets and repatriating funds, driving up the yen. The Taiwan dollar surged more than 9% in two days of trading in May, its sharpest rise since 1988, as insurers and exporters moved assets back home.

One of the more surprising developments has been the strength of the euro, which gained as much as 12% against the dollar—from it’s January low—following April’s tariff announcement. Traditionally seen as too fragmented to rival the dollar’s safe-haven status, beset as it has been by budget crises in Greece, Italy, and elsewhere, the eurozone is now benefiting from both renewed investor confidence and signs of economic stabilization.

“The strength of the euro against the dollar is based on both the deterioration in the economic outlook for the US economy and the improvement in the prospects for Germany,” Jane Foley, senior FX strategist at Rabobank, said in March. “There are certainly signs of a shift away from dollar assets.”

The ripple effects are already hitting the corporate world. Multinationals reliant on a strong dollar could see earnings erode. European and Asian companies that purchase dollar-denominated commodities, like oil, are facing higher costs. And for emerging markets, the shift could reverse the 1997 Asian financial crisis dynamic. Back then, capital fled the region; today, it’s flowing in.

Currencies across Southeast Asia and surrounding markets—including in Singapore, South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, Hong Kong, and Taiwan—are gaining momentum as investors diversify away from the US market. In a twist of economic irony, the weakening dollar may help Trump achieve one of his primary goals: a reduction in US imports.

But when it comes to exports, the forging of new trade regimes around the world may leave him knocking at the door.

Over the past year, banks embraced innovative technologies like APIs, AI tools, and mobile solutions to enhance efficiency, customer service, and risk management. Global Finance announces the 2025 Innovators from Middle East.

Regional Winners

Most Innovative Bank in Middle East| ARAB BANK

Acabes, Arab Bank’s in-house development factory, enabled the bank to launch an updated version of its Reflect banking app in 2024. Reflect benefits from a host of new digital features, including multicurrency subaccounts for deposits, savings, and payments. Customers can also use Salary Transfer and instant transfer features with these currencies. Arabi Shopix, another Acabes product, is an e-commerce website creation service.

Acabes empowered Omnify, Arab Bank’s embedded finance and open-banking platform, toward its official launch, leading to Omnify signing and/or going live with third-party providers. Omnify has solidified its position as the region’s leading one-stop shop for embedded finance and open banking, preparing for the next era of banking as a service. Partnerships with key innovators like MoXey and Menaitech have improved the platform and let partners quickly develop custom financial solutions.

Most Innovative Financial Technology Company in Middle East | GEIDEA

The first payment provider in the Middle East and North Africa region to offer instant merchant onboarding, Geidea enables businesses to start accepting payments within minutes, thanks to substantial investments in automation, AI, and digital verification.

Geidea’s instant onboarding solution is particularly significant due to the rapid growth of digital-payment adoption across the region and the increasing number of microenterprises entering the formal economy. By facilitating quick onboarding for businesses of all sizes, Geidea supports scalable growth.

Furthermore, Geidea has set a new benchmark for innovation by becoming the first fintech in the region to develop and launch its own proprietary point-of-sale terminal. This establishes a new standard for flexibility, security, and technological integration in payments. By eliminating reliance on thirdparty hardware manufacturers, Geidea has disrupted traditional payment solutions and introduced a model that empowers businesses with unprecedented control and customization.

Innovations In Finance Globally From Middle East

Cash Management Forecasting in ATMs Project | BANK MUSCAT

Oman’s Bank Muscat became the first Middle East bank to leverage AI and machine learning for predictive analytics in cash management, creating an efficient, non-manual ATM cash forecasting and replenishment process. By analyzing historical data for cash withdrawals and deposits along with external factors like seasonality and local events, the new forecasting system ensures optimal cash levels at ATMs, solving the problem of cash outs, which can be an annoyance for customers, and minimizing idle cash in the ATM, which is not ideal for the bank.

Musaed – Elevating Conversational Banking | BOUBYAN BANK

Boubyan Bank’s chatbot, Musaed—”helper” in Arabic—has undergone a series of recent enhancements. One such, Boubyan Playback, provides customers with a personalized “Year in Review” of their interactions with the bank, encouraging high customer engagement. Additionally, Boubyan has become the first bank in Kuwait to offer AI-powered recruitment assistance through Musaed’s Job Interview Service. During Boubyan’s internal job fair, Musaed streamlined the interviewing and hiring process by facilitating over 1,000 CV submissions and aiding HR in efficiently identifying potential candidates.

AI-powered Reconciliation Platform | BANQUE SAUDI FRANSI

In February, BSF partnered with Deben, a Saudi SaaS platform that automates cash flow management and generates instant reports for financial managers, to launch an innovative AI-powered reconciliation platform. As the first of its kind in both the kingdom and the region, the platform uses AI to deliver intelligent reconciliation, forecasting, anomaly detection, and real-time financial insights. Businesses can customize transaction categorization to meet their specific needs and automation streamlines processes for increased efficiency, cost savings, and an enhanced user experience.

FABeAccess Electronic Direct Debit (eDDS) API Suite| FIRST ABU DHABI BANK (FAB)

FAB’s eDDS API Suite is transforming the way businesses manage their receivables. The solution offers real-time, secure, automated collection processes while ensuring regulatory compliance. eDDS API Suite streamlines collections for billers and enhances convenience for payers through features including mandate registration, cancellation, collection requests, realtime status updates, and pre-collection reports. By eliminating manual processes and reducing administrative costs, businesses gain end-to-end visibility over their receivables. As the first API-driven electronic direct debit solution in the United Arab Emirates, eDDS API provides scalability, seamless integration with ERP systems, and a customer-centric approach.

PULSE Mobile App| MASHREQ

PULSE Mobile, a pioneering corporate banking app in the Middle East, provides relationship managers with a comprehensive, 360-degree view of client information. The innovative tool enables instant access to critical client data, transaction approvals, and call report submissions, directly from mobile devices. Additionally, the app’s news alerts feature ensures that relationship managers stay informed of key industry events, enabling them to proactively manage their portfolios and respond to market changes in real time.

QIC App| QATAR INSURANCE CO.

he QIC App is Qatar’s premier comprehensive mobile platform, delivering an array of services tailored for motorists and vehicle proprietors over a platform set up to streamline their daily routines and enhance road safety. By integrating both insurance and auxiliary non-insurance offerings, the QIC App addresses a critical issue: the disjointed and protracted procedures associated with overseeing diverse automotive requirements. Concurrently, QIC Reads operates as Qatar’s exclusive digital repository dedicated to insurance education, aiming to foster a robust culture of insurance awareness and simplify the understanding of everyday insurance needs in Qatar.

Fawran Corporate| QATAR ISLAMIC BANK

Qatar’s first Sharia-compliant, real-time corporate payment service, Fawran Corporate launched last November. The service allows instant transactions, including payroll, supplier payments, and intercompany transfers, improving liquidity and streamlining operations. Adherence to Sharia principles fosters trust and expands the service’s reach within the Islamic finance sector. Fawran Corporate marks a major milestone in Qatar’s financial development, promoting innovation, efficiency, and inclusivity.

RAK Telemetry (Real Time Dashboard)| RAKBANK

RAK Telemetry, a groundbreaking suite of 32 real-time and near real-time dashboards, offers a centralized platform to track and monitor essential business processes, integrating key data points and metrics to provide a comprehensive overview of onboarding journeys, service requests, transactions, and IT tickets status. By eliminating the need for multiple, disjointed tracking systems and manual data correlation, RAK Telemetry streamlines operations, enhances decision-making, and boosts overall efficiency. Businesses can leverage the tool to gain valuable insights into customer behavior, market trends, and operational performance, enabling them to respond swiftly to changing conditions and optimize their strategies.

Innovations in AI, APIs, and digital tools helped banks improve operations, customer engagement, and financial inclusion in the last year. Global Finance announces the 2025 Innovators from North America.

Regional Winners

Most Innovative Bank in North America | BANK OF AMERICA

Bank of America’s (BofA’s) dedication to improving customer experience is evident in the 12% increase in digital interactions by clients last year, reaching a recordbreaking 26 billion interactions. Corporate clients made over $1 trillion in payment approvals on the bank’s CashPro app in 2024—a 25% increase year on year.

Notable CashPro Data Intelligence innovations include CashPro Search with Investigations—the first comprehensive search-and-investigation tool across transaction types. Another innovation is CashPro Capital Markets Insights, which is the first integrated capital markets experience available in a treasury mobile app, offering access to investment-grade secondary bond pricing alongside treasury information.

The bank also launched Virtual Payables Direct, an innovative solution that combines BofA’s card-issuance, merchant-acquisition, and payment capabilities. For the first time, buyers can benefit from the working capital advantages of a card transaction while paying suppliers who prefer direct bank transfers: Payments begin as card transactions but are delivered to suppliers as bank transfers, ensuring that suppliers get paid quickly while buyers benefit from extended payment terms.

Most Innovative Financial Technology Company in North America | BATTERY FINANCE

In November 2024, Battery Finance executed a pioneering financial transaction by establishing a bitcoin reserve with shared appreciation benefits for both borrower and lender. This innovative approach was integrated into the collateral package for the refinancing of Project Bank Street Court, a seasoned multifamily mixed-use asset located in Center City, Philadelphia.

This groundbreaking transaction effectively enabled borrowers to leverage Bitcoin as collateral for loans. The structure of the deal was unique in its dual-collateralized nature—by combining Bitcoin with traditionally financeable assets, Battery Finance offered borrowers uncorrelated downside protection and enhanced the overall collateral package. This novel approach to collateralization mitigated risks associated with the volatility of Bitcoin while still allowing borrowers to capitalize on its potential for appreciation. 

Innovations In Finance Globally From North America

Lumi Assistant | BMO

BMO uses an employee-assisting Gen AI solution, incorporating Amazon Web Services and Anthropic’s large language model, to read, interpret, and summarize complex documents including policies, procedures, operating manuals, and regulatory documents in a user-friendly format. Launched in March to support 200 employees, Lumi Assistant was expanded in April to support some 8,500 Canadian front-line bank employees. By the end of this year, BMO plans to make the solution available to over 14,600 Canadian personal and business banking employees.

Virtual Account Based Solutions (VABS) | BNY

In January, BNY launched VABS, a cash management solution that promises to provide clients with improved control and access to cash administration activities and reporting capabilities. VABS is one of the first cash management systems to offer instant access to robust, real-time transaction and balance reporting at the individual virtual account level and ACH allocations at the virtual account level. Virtual accounts can be linked to physical accounts within BNY and payments are reflected in real time.

Tokenization of the 1708 Stradivarius Violin, “Empress Caterina” | GALAXY DIGITAL

Galaxy Digital’s groundbreaking tokenization of the 1708 Stradivarius violin “Empress Caterina” last year established a new paradigm for high-value collectibles in the digital financial landscape. By enabling on-chain ownership tracking, the NFT ensures an immutable record while unlocking the potential for decentralized finance backed by real-world assets.

Asset Tokenization Studio| HEDERA

Hedera’s Asset Tokenization Studio, launched last September, is an open-source toolkit that streamlines the tokenization of bonds and equities. By integrating ownership records, compliance features, document management, and notifications directly on-ledger, it eliminates the need for off-chain data management, thereby reducing operational risk. The end-to-end solution improves upon the ERC-1400 standard, enabling full lifecycle management of tokenized assets.

TPRM Accounting Fintech, aka Sustainability Accounting Fintech (SAF)| LELE-HCM

SAF uses AI to enhance financial analysis and risk management via two platforms: Fintech V1 and Fintech V2. V1 generates reports for banks and third parties, helping to calculate risk-weighted assets. V2 allows for continuous monitoring and control, facilitating on-balance-sheet netting. Basel III regulations have shifted focus from the internal ratings-based approach to standardized methods for recognizing credit risk mitigation, a shift supported by SAF’s platforms.

Zenus Embedded Banking| ZENUS BANK

Last November, the Puerto Rico-based digital bank launched a first-of-its-kind, fully embedded banking platform. The API-driven solution enables other financial institutions around the world to set up dedicated US dollar accounts, process international payments, and offer cross-border Visa card issuance.

Banks accelerated digital transformation by adopting customer-focused platforms, AI-driven services, and advanced data analytics. Global Finances announces the 2025 Innovators from Western Europe.

Regional Winners

Most Innovative Bank in Western Europe | SOCIETE GENERALE

Societe Generale’s Global Transaction and Payment Services division has launched several new innovations to reduce their corporate clients’ workload. These include IKAR, a Gen AI chatbot for cash management product-documentation inquiries; and the Digitrade Tool, which uses advanced data analytics, including algorithms and pattern recognition, to personalize the document-checking process. The Digitrade Tool identifies and extracts key information from documents, adapting to the specific requirements of different transactions. By eliminating the need for paper checks and offering digital tools with multiple features, the tool provides users with a more convenient and tailored experience, aligning with their preferences for efficiency and accuracy.

Additionally, the bank’s X-Border API enables other banks to automatically send payment instructions to Societe Generale in 40 different currencies from a single account, benefiting from a guaranteed rate for 20 minutes after obtaining the quotation.

Most Innovative Financial Technology Company in Western Europe | REDCOMPASS LABS

AnalystAccelerator.ai is the world’s first multiagent AI solution engineered specifically to accelerate payments transformation. Developed by RedCompass Labs and launched in November 2024, this innovative tool leverages the extensive knowledge and experience gained from over 300 payment projects undertaken for leading global banks. It also utilizes the most comprehensive library of global payments documentation available.

Using AnalystAccelerator.ai, a business analyst can reduce manual work on a typical payment modernization project by up to 68%. Regulatory and project documentation updates that used to take weeks can be completed in under a day, saving banks millions of dollars and months of work. This leads to improved project outcomes and enhanced compliance with regulatory requirements.

In April this year, RedCompass Labs unveiled AnalystAccelerator.ai v2.5, an enhanced version fine-tuned on the largest collection of payments rulebooks in the world and outperforming leading general AI models. It delivers 13% better performance on complex payment-related tasks than GPT-4o and achieves a perplexity score 10 times lower than open-source AI models.

Innovations In Finance Globally From Western Europe

ADA (Analytics + Data + AI) Platform | BBVA

BBVA ADA, the first global data platform to fully integrate all countries in which the BBVA group has a presence, launched last November in Europe and Uruguay. The platform streamlines the end-to-end analytics process, utilizing 100% of the bank’s data and Amazon Web Services’ advanced managed services to optimize data processing, machine learning, and analytics. The combination improves the strategic capabilities and decision-making expertise of data scientists, analysts, and reporting teams throughout the organization.

New Signature for Operations in CaixaBank Group Applications | CAIXABANK

By consolidating the signing process on a single platform, CaixaBank has effectively eliminated the need for its customers to navigate multiple applications or interfaces to complete their banking tasks. The streamlined approach not only saves time but reduces the potential for error and enhances the overall user experience. The new authorization method incorporates advanced security measures to safeguard customers’ sensitive information and financial assets, ensuring they can conduct their banking activities knowing their transactions are protected by robust security protocols.

Mind Money Weather Model | MIND MONEY (FORMERLY ZERICH)

Mind Money Weather is the first quantitative model to connect operational weather forecasts and commodity prices. Typically, factoring weather data into trading strategies involves detecting significant patterns and combining these with meteorologists’ informal impact assessments, considering the economic context (demand, supply, stocks) but without a clear mathematical model. Instead of focusing on forecasting, Mind Money Weather centers on the formal, quantitative assessment of how weather affects commodity pricing.

From compliance to stablecoins to microbusinesses, fintech labs germinate next-gen uses for AI.

You wouldn’t think that the quipu—an abacuslike system of knotted cords used by the Incas for record keeping—would have much application to the breakneck adoption of artificial intelligence among financial institutions (FIs). But a Colombian financial-services company nurtured by Bancolombia Ventures harkens to that system. Quipu deploys AI-powered analyses of alternative data to determine the creditworthiness of microbusinesses.

Quipu’s work is just one example of the growing importance of AI to financial institutions. According to Statista, the financial sector “exhibit[s] one of the highest adoption rates across industries.” In fact, Statista estimates that in 2024, the financial services industry invested roughly $45 billion in AI technology. Concurrently, NVIDIA found that more than half of the companies represented in its global State of AI in Financial Services: 2025 Trends report view AI as “crucial to their future success.” Of the 600 financial services professionals surveyed, 98% of managers say that their organizations plan to increase AI infrastructure spending this year.

Many banks have already deployed AI to automate internal processes such as customer onboarding, credit scoring, fraud detection, and loan processing. Increasingly, FIs consider AI a pivotal tool for efficiency and cost-effectiveness in meeting evolving anti-money laundering and know-your-customer regulations.

As these innovations become more commonplace, some banks may wonder what’s next for AI? That’s where innovations arising from the world’s best fintech labs come in.

AI capabilities continue to mature. Enhanced AI capabilities will help FIs generate new business value, but only if those institutions follow the advance from AI to generative AI (Gen AI).

The term “artificial intelligence” is used for technologies that can perform tasks previously requiring human brain power. Relying on historical data and rules-based systems, these capabilities recognize patterns, understand language, and detect anomalies—notably, the types of anomalies that can indicate fraud.

Gen AI is a specialized branch of AI that exceeds content analysis to actually produce content. Gen AI can write. It can simulate human conversation. It can code. It can generate images and videos.

The difference between AI and Gen AI can be seen in chatbots. Imagine this: A customer asks a chatbot, “Why was my credit card application denied?” An AI-powered chatbot may return a list of common reasons for the bank to deny credit, followed by a customer-service phone number for the user to call. A Gen AI-powered chatbot may respond with, “Your credit card application was denied because your credit score is too low. Your credit score is too low because a $2,000 write-off appears on your credit report. This write-off seems to be related to an auto loan from ABC Motors. Repaying this debt will help you improve your credit score. You may want to contact ABC Motors to settle this debt. Consider negotiating a ‘pay-for-delete’ arrangement.”

“Loan sharks were these businesses’ only solution. We’re an alternative to that.”

Mercedes Bidart, CEO and Founder, Quipu

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Chatbot improvement is just one way Gen AI can improve business for FIs. It can study customer data to more closely tailor marketing strategies and financial services to individual needs. It can improve loan and investment strategies by generating “what if ” scenarios to help banks chart, for example, how changing interest rates affect customers’ willingness to take out new loans, and customers’ ability to repay those loans. And, as the innovations discussed below indicate, AI and Gen AI can help banks and their clients hasten international trade. They can help spot and stop previously unknown threats to bank infrastructures and data. And they can provide a financial lifeline to the underbanked.

Bancolombia Ventures partners with startups, focusing on topics such as fintech, climate-related technology, and cybersecurity. One of those startups, Quipu, has developed a new credit-scoring system tailored to what Bancolombia calls the “informal” nature of business in Latin America.

According to El Pais, a leading Colombian newspaper, close to 95% of all businesses in that country are microenterprises—defined as operations with 10 employees or less. While employing 65% of the Colombian workforce, these organizations tend to suffer from “business dwarfism,” or an inability to grow. Why? They lack access to capital. Traditional credit scoring methods paint them as a bad risk.

This is a problem that Mercedes Bidart, Quipu CEO, is trying to solve. The MIT graduate notes that most microentrepreneurs in the country operate as freelancers. “They have their digital wallet or bank account as a person, not as a business,” Bidart says. “They come in for an SME [small or midsize enterprise] loan at the bank, but they won’t get that. There’s no information about their business behavior.”

The Quipu system finds new ways to detect business value. It looks at business location, social media posts (including videos, pictures, and customer comments) and other nontraditional sources of information to determine business health. Even Google Maps can indicate whether a business is growing—showing, perhaps, the physical expansion of a home-based garage over time.

Quipu uses this information to develop its own credit scores for microbusinesses. Potential new clients are often referred by Bancolombia, from its pool of declined applicants. Quipu has offered many of these microbusinesses loans ranging from $100 to $2,000—for a total of $3.5 million in loans granted over the past 18 months. While these are personal loans, rather than business loans, Bidart believes that these small infusions of cash will help some businesses grow to the point where they eventually qualify for more-traditional SME loans.

“The people we serve—before us the only financial solution they had was the predatory lender. We have loan sharks. They charge abusive interest rates, and they’re violent,” Bidart says. “They operate from Mexico to Argentina. In Colombia, loan sharks were these businesses’ only solution. We’re an alternative to that.”

Let’s take look at innovations arising at other fintech labs around the world.

Best Financial Innovation Labs 2025

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“Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies” has long been a definitive guide for corporate finance professionals. Eight editions in, the book’s lead author, Tim Koller—a partner at consulting giant McKinsey & Company—says the biggest surprise is what hasn’t changed. Koller speaks to Global Finance about one of the dealmaking world’s most enduring topics.

Global Finance: To what extent does geography play a role in affecting a company’s valuation?

Koller: It applies to most parts of the world. If you are a purely local business, in Europe or Asia, for example, then it’s less of an issue. But, if the US were to experience a severe recession, it would probably affect everybody. And then, of course, there are those businesses that are directly impacted—companies that export, import or compete with US companies. A lot of companies, even if they appear to be local, they’re competing with US-based companies, or they’re trading with US-based companies. So, the impact is felt far beyond the US.

GF: Are more companies growing frustrated with US volatility and seeking opportunities in Europe and the APAC region?

Koller: For most companies, it takes years to build or to change strategies from a geographic perspective. Some of the companies I talked to are thinking about these things, but, at this stage, you don’t just break into a market in a couple of months. If you want to build a business in a new country, or if you want to change your supply chain, these things take time. So it depends. If your supply chain is highly specialized, that could take years to restructure. If your supply chain is simple or there are lots of other producers, and you can switch from one country to another, that’s a little bit easier.

Bringing things back to the US is also very time consuming—no matter what industry it is. People are thinking about it and making plans, but for the most part, the timeframe of any kind of major structural change is fairly long, and you don’t want to commit to it until you probably know more about what’s going on.

GF: In this latest edition of your book, did you touch upon digital assets or how companies are building their own reserves?

Koller: We don’t address it, and I’ll tell you why. For the most part, a lot of what people are talking about is not a currency. We call it a cryptocurrency, but it’s not a currency. It is a speculative investment. And the nature of these speculative investments is unlike a stock or a bond. There’s no inherent valuation. We won’t know what the answer is eventually. It’s purely a function of supply and demand of investors and sentiment for many of these cryptocurrencies. It’s like investing in vintage automobiles or fine art. It’s nothing more than that. As far as I’m concerned, that’s why we don’t touch on it, because you can’t do anything with it, and then I wouldn’t understand why a company would put money into that. Because you’re really betting on market sentiment. You’re betting on other investors wanting to get into that market and pushing up the price.

GF: What about stablecoins?

Koller: Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies tied to real-world assets, usually the US dollar or another fiat currency. The more reputable ones are backed 1:1 by actual reserves. From a corporate valuation perspective, they’re not particularly interesting. If a cryptocurrency is simply pegged to the dollar but involves additional transaction costs, it doesn’t offer much advantage over using dollars directly.

There’s been talk for decades about something replacing the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency—whether the euro, the yuan, or others—but those alternatives face their own challenges. For a currency to be viable for transactions, especially everyday purchases, it needs to have a stable value. That’s why something backed by the dollar or another relatively stable fiat currency is necessary.

However, stablecoins don’t really factor into the strategic decision-making of most companies or investors unless they’re directly involved in currency or cryptocurrency markets. And that’s a niche area I’m hesitant to speculate on.

GF: Are there certain basic mistakes that happen at a company that hurts valuation or leads to their failure?

Koller: It’s rarely that a company is fundamentally unsound. The real issue is often the gap between how companies value themselves and how the market values them. Many CEOs and CFOs believe their companies are undervalued, but when we analyze hundreds of companies each year—using discounted cash flow models and peer comparisons—we usually find valuations are within 10% of fair value. That margin is small and can fluctuate day to day.

Companies, on the other hand, often have financial projections that are inconsistent with their market values, because the market doesn’t give them credit for things that they hope to achieve, unless they have a strong track record. For example, if an industry grows at 4% annually and a company projects 6% growth, the market may only price in 4%. If the company hits just that, it’s not a failure—investors never expected more. It’s not a disaster from a valuation perspective, because investors didn’t expect that anyway.

The bigger issue is the disconnect we saw in the dotcom bubble. There’s sometimes a disconnect, you might argue, with some of the big mega [magnificent seven] stocks. One of the characteristics I look for, in terms of potential overvaluation, is who are the investors in a company. And, in particular, what share of retail investors? And if you see a very high share of retail investors inside in a stock, that is often a sign of overvaluation. Retail investors don’t crunch the numbers. They typically buy based on emotion and hype. It may be a great company, but that doesn’t mean you should pay 100 times earnings for it.

GF: Could that also complicate M&A strategies?

Koller: Yes, although that does create an opportunity. Very few companies have the guts to take advantage of it. If my shares are overvalued, that’s the time when you can use those shares to buy something, and that’s great. We’ve seen a couple of those, but not that often.

GF: Over the eight editions on valuation, what’s the most surprising change that you’ve seen in how companies wrestle with value?

Koller: The most surprising thing isn’t how much companies have changed, but how little they have. And it’s not just because we’ve written a book, but other academics have done research. Many companies remain too short-term oriented. Large firms still try to cost-cut their way to success, which only works for a limited time. And while innovation continues, it often comes from smaller companies rather than the big players.

One positive shift has been the steady decline of conglomerates. More companies are breaking themselves up into simpler, more focused entities. This trend, certainly evident in the US and to some extent in Europe as well, has improved management effectiveness and is favored by investors who value focus and clarity. That’s probably the most meaningful change—the breaking up of complex companies into smaller ones.

GF: Do the recent headlines of Google and Meta being under scrutiny and possibly broken up exemplify that trend?

Koller: I can’t speak specifically to Google or Meta, because their business units are more interconnected than, say, a company making both valves and toothpaste—where there’s clearly no synergy. What matters isn’t size but complexity, especially when businesses don’t share customers, technologies, suppliers, or distribution channels. That’s when it makes sense to consider breaking them up.

More broadly, while the trend toward focused companies has been positive, many firms remain too short-term oriented. They often blame the stock market, but that’s not entirely fair. Our research shows that about 75% of investors—whether retail, index funds, or institutions—are long-term holders. The problem is that companies tend to pay too much attention to the loudest voices, which are often short-term traders. There’s still a lot of room for companies to take a more long-term approach, and that’s work that continues.

GF: In past editions or in this new edition on valuations, has there been any sort of trend or surprising development you noticed?

Koller: One major trend we’ve seen is the globalization of equity markets over the last 35 years. Today, the shareholder-base of large companies in Europe, Japan, and Taiwan often looks very similar to their US peers. As an individual investor, you can easily buy hundreds of international funds or even individual foreign stocks—and the same goes for investors abroad buying US equities. So, from a capital markets perspective, things have truly globalized.

However, corporate behavior still varies by region. On average, European companies continue to earn lower returns on capital than their US counterparts—though the gap has narrowed, and some of the best-performing companies in various industries are European. In Asia, there’s still a noticeable emphasis on size and prestige over value creation. I’m surprised that focus persists. While it’s slowly shifting, many companies still prioritize growth and scale rather than returns, which often results in lower valuations compared to US firms—unless they’re high-growth global competitors.

GF: What will modern finance look like in the future?

Koller: I’m hopeful that AI will help us value companies more effectively. Right now, it’s good at tasks like summarizing and researching quickly, and over time it may become more capable. But while tech—and AI in particular—makes up a large share of the stock market, it still represents a relatively small part of the broader economy. Most people still need housing, food, clothing, travel—those businesses aren’t going away.

AI will be used across many industries to improve customer experience, reduce costs, or enhance products, but it’s not fundamentally going to change things. Valuations are going to be disproportionate towards those companies.  But the real question is: Will companies use AI to actually boost profits, or will those gains be passed on to consumers, like with many past innovations? For investors and executives, the key is understanding whether AI is a true source of competitive advantage. That distinction will vary by industry, but it’s central to how we think about value in the future.

Thomas Cowan, VP of tokenization at regional winner Galaxy Digital, explains why the digital asset company tokenized a 300-year-old Stradivarius violin.

Global Finance: There’s a lot of talk lately about tokenizing physical assets like gold, real estate, and art. What are the advantages? When you tokenize a collectible like a 1708 Stradivarius violin, as your company did recently, don’t you still have to go through the same demanding documentation process as you would if you sold it through an auction house?

Thomas Cowan: One difference is that once you’ve completed that due diligence and you’ve put the asset on-chain—as a NFT that is mapped to the violin—all that information remains encapsulated in the NFT: the violin’s history, its former owners, etc.

GF: And that makes it more easily traded?

Cowan: The next person won’t have to do nearly as much diligence, because they will have the history already on-chain. You end up saving a lot of costs on the due diligence side, because the source of truth and the source of record are fully on-chain, already there.

Another advantage is transparency. Minting a publicly recorded NFT on the Ethereum blockchain [as happened with the Stradivarius] ensures a verifiable, fraud-proof record of ownership and provenance.

GF: By tokenizing a 300-year-old violin that once belonged to Catherine the Great, what financing opportunities do you open up?

Cowan: Owners can unlock liquidity without necessitating a sale if they convert the asset into a digital token. The violin can then be utilized as collateral. This can fundamentally transform the way these assets interact with financial markets.

GF: Can tokenization make global finance safer?

Cowan: Think back to the situation before the 2008 financial crisis, when you could buy into a mortgage-backed security pool, but you didn’t know the performance of the underlying loans. Well, with tokenization, you see every single underlying loan. If I’m buying a senior tranche of a debt pool, I know exactly what that risk looks like because I can see every single loan.

GF: What were the key challenges in making this project happen?

Cowan: The legal aspects were a hurdle. With a traditional IPO or a bond issuance, you have the legal documents, which are pretty standard across the industry. It turns out there are no standard legal documents out there for violin tokenizations. So, we had to really start from scratch.

GF: What are some other areas ripe for tokenization?

Cowan: I think we’ll really begin to see an increased interest in on-chain debt, especially structured products and private credit, over the next year or two. Tokenization technology can create a lot of efficiencies there.

GF: What about real estate and equities?

Cowan: I think real estate is still relatively far out. You’ve got property laws that differ based on country, state, and municipality, for instance. Also, much of the history with real estate is still paper based.

As for equities, a few months ago, I would have said we have a long way to go. But because of how quickly regulatory clarity is coming [especially in the US] and how quickly the Securities and Exchange Commission is moving [with regard to crypto and blockchain technology-enabling regulation], the industry may move faster on tokenizing equities.

GF: What obstacles remain before tokenization of financial products becomes widespread?

Cowan: We still have regulatory challenges, and of course identity and know your customer (KYC) and anti-money laundering (AML) challenges. Those are not going away.

GF: Overall, what does tokenization mean for global finance generally? Will it really change the landscape? Cowan: Over the past decade, we’ve been moving forward without regulatory clarity. But when we are given rules of the road, we’re going to see a lot of capital, especially from institutions, flood into the industry because they’ve seen the value of the technology. We’ll get cost reduction, but also a much more inclusive economy.

Global Finance spoke with Rafael Ernesto Barrientos Interiano, Director of Technology and Digital Transformation at Banco Cuscatlan, about innovations in banking in Latin America and how Banco Cuscatlan uses technology to create a better customer experience.

Global Finance: How have technology and innovation transformed banking in Latin America?

Rafael Ernesto Barrientos Interiano: Technology and innovation have broken down geographical barriers, reduced wait times, and offered more personalized and secure services. Banco Cuscatlan has led this transformation through a deep digital overhaul, enabling access to digital products like savings accounts, fixed-term deposits, overdraft facilities, personal loans, credit cards, and debt consolidation.

This vision has empowered thousands of Salvadorans to manage their finances quickly and securely, aligning with global trends in the industry. Banco Cuscatlan’s ongoing focus on technological improvement and customer service strengthens our vision to continue leading digital banking transformation in the region.

GF: Where do technology and innovation have the greatest impact? Where do you see the greatest opportunity for innovation?

Barrientos: Our digital ecosystem has transformed the relationship between people and banking, helping us achieve a broader reach and closer interaction with clients. We envision a future where every client enjoys a banking experience tailored to their habits and goals. The greatest opportunity lies in continuing to develop personalized financial solutions using artificial intelligence, advanced analytics, and process automation.

Also, regional expansion is a key opportunity to replicate and scale our successful digital models in new markets, solidifying our leadership as a reference in financial innovation across the region.

GF: How are digital solutions transforming how people bank in El Salvador?

Barrientos: Clients shouldn’t have to adapt to tedious financial processes; but rather, banks must use technology to deliver innovative financial solutions tailored to clients’ pace of life. These solutions are changing how people interact with financial services. Customers can use their mobile phones to open accounts, apply for loans or overdrafts, obtain and use credit cards, and consolidate debt. This transformation has democratized access to banking products and improved the quality of life for thousands of Salvadorans, making banking an experience that’s simple, human and efficient.

GF: What sets Banco Cuscatlan apart from its competitors? How does technology give you an advantage?

Barrientos: We have a customer-centric approach, and by actively listening to people’s needs, we deliver solutions with real value. We can anticipate customer needs through agile, comprehensive, and fully self-managed digital solutions. Banco Cuscatlan has digitized its portfolio, enabling a smooth, secure, and frictionless experience. Technology gives us a competitive edge and reduced operational costs, quickly scaled services, and personalized the customer experience. This commitment to continuous improvement, combined with an internal culture of digital transformation, has made the bank a change agent within the financial sector in El Salvador and the region.

GF: How has the bank used technology to overcome business challenges?

Barrientos: Banco Cuscatlan has leveraged technology to overcome business challenges like financial inclusion, the need to streamline processes, and increased demand for personalized services. Through a comprehensive digital transformation strategy, we eliminated our dependency on physical infrastructure by offering digital financial products accessible from any device.

With this commitment to self-service, we can scale operations, maintain business continuity, and adapt to users’ evolving expectations. Technology has been our ally in optimizing resources, expanding our regional reach, and delivering excellence.

Manish Kohli, head of Global Payments Solutions at HSBC, discusses the bank’s digital-payments strategy and how it is innovating in transaction banking. HSBC was named one of Global Finance’s Most Innovative Banks.

Global Finance: Open banking is on the rise. How does HSBC see its role evolving in this new ecosystem?

Manish Kohli: HSBC is a major player in the open-banking and open-finance ecosystem. We’re the world’s largest transaction bank and have a global footprint that spans the numerous jurisdictions and clearing systems that are driving the open-banking agenda.

We are reengineering our processes by integrating advanced digital solutions, from automated cash management to robust API connectivity. So we automate manual processes and integrate systems to improve efficiency and risk management.

Collaboration is key, because we see open banking as a catalyst for a more client-centric ecosystem. This collaboration starts with our clients as they help shape our product-development road map.

We also collaborate across clients’ treasury tech stacks and have live API integrations with partners such as SAP, Oracle, Kyriba, and FIS. This ensures we are providing clients with an end-to-end solution and staying focused on incorporating technology into payment solutions that support our clients and their treasurers with the real-time information they need to make more-informed cash management decisions.

GF: What is HSBC’s strategy for incorporating emerging payment technologies such as digital currencies—including central bank digital currencies (CBDCs)—andhow do you see these impacting your payment solutions?

Kohli: Whilst CBDC maturity varies greatly by market, it will play a critical role in the payments solutions of tomorrow, which is why we continue to research, test, and invest with various central banks globally.

Currently, HSBC is involved in pilot projects with central banks in markets including the UK, France, Singapore, Hong Kong, China, Thailand, and the United Arab Emirates, and with the Bank for International Settlements’ Project Agorà. 

Our tokenization platform for digital bond issuance, Project Orion, has led the way in the digitalization of capital markets infrastructure. HSBC was also one of the first financial institutions to complete proof-of-concept use cases within the Project Ensemble Sandbox, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s CBDC project to accelerate tokenization.

GF: How is HSBC utilizing data analytics to gain deeper insights into customer behavior within digital channels? And how are you using these insights to drive innovation in client service?

Kohli: We process numerous transactions per second, generating a wealth of data. This data is used not only for retrospective analysis but also in real time, powering intelligent payments solutions. The insights gathered from millions of transactions help us to not only improve our own processes but deliver tailored, actionable advice to our clients ranging from choosing the fastest or cheapest route for international payments to risk-mitigated strategies for currency management.

Our innovative analytics tools can detect when a payment is made in an alternative currency. This allows us to offer customers the option to secure the best rate. The use of AI and API integration further ensures that insights derived from data immediately support payment decisions.

We’ve established a dedicated Treasury Solutions Group, which conducts gap analyses and recommends best practices to improve treasury operations.

GF: Beyond incremental improvements to existing digital channels, what “moon shot” or disruptive digital banking or payment solutions is HSBC investing in?

Kohli: We don’t underestimate the importance of incremental improvement, given that we operate in a heavily regulated, market-driven ecosystem that spans numerous regulators, central banks, and payments partners.

We are focused on building innovative solutions that enable our clients to transform in the digital economy. In recent years, we’ve made significant investments to develop digital solutions that help accelerate the pace at which money moves globally. Our most recent innovative solution, Digital Merchant Services, has enabled HSBC to become a digital-merchant acquirer for cards, local e-wallets, and real-time payments, helping our merchant clients with seamless payment collections at scale and to grow their business efficiently.

We’ve invested $30 million in building a next-generation liquidity engine, and our use of AI allows us to provide real-time, data-driven insights during transactions. For example, through FX Prompt, our systems can instantly advise customers on the best currency option, ensuring they secure the most favorable rates, making our payment solutions smarter and more agile. Tomorrow’s moon shots will be the result of ongoing collaboration with numerous stakeholders in the ecosystem, persistent investment, and continuous R&D.