Category Currency

Written by Steven Dooley, Head of Market Insights, and Shier Lee Lim, Lead FX and Macro Strategist

Sharemarkets fall, but FX more muted

Global markets were lower on Thursday morning after US president Donald Trump signed-off on a 25% tariff on auto imports into the US

US markets had finished trading when the announcement was made but stock market futures fell on the news. Earlier, US equity markets had a bad day, with the S&P500 down 1.2% and the Nasdaq losing 2.0%.

In FX markets, the response was more muted, with currency markets showing signs of “tariff fatigue”.

The AUD/USD was flat overnight and fell only 0.1% on the automobile tariff announcement.

Earlier, Australia’s February CPI decreased to 2.4% year-over-year, with a trimmed mean of 2.7% year-over-year. On the CPI print, the AUDUSD was first dropped down below 0.6280, but it soon reversed the move. 

The kiwi was also mostly steady overnight, and down moderately after the tariff announcement.

In Asia, the USD was mostly higher, boosted by gains in the USD/JPY after this week’s Bank of Japan minutes.  

The USD/SGD and USD/CNH both climbed to three-week highs.

Trump claims that in his tariff push, he doesn’t want “too many” exceptions.

President Donald Trump of the United States intends to restrict exemptions to his tariff campaign. 

His statement that “not too many, not too many exceptions” would be difficult to get was published by Bloomberg. 

Although there is still a lot of uncertainty, the market is positive on the DXY price action.

Looking at USD/JPY, following a recent test of 151.00, it should indicate a technical resistance of 151.50-70.

USD/JPY’s RSI indicator is at 53 level and there may be potential for USD/JPY to edge higher, supported by relative yields shown in correlation chart.

Improved perceptions of China bodes well for CNH

Looking at Asia, the Chinese government’s announcement of a number of policy changes and the surge in Chinese stocks have enhanced perceptions of China, as seen by the rise in exporters’ FX conversions.

The PBoC has been able to better control RMB price movement as a result of this development.  

USD/CNH is now at three-week highs with AUD/CNY also near three-week highs.

USD/CNY and AUD/CNY are slightly above its 30-day average trading ranges, where CNY buyers may look to take advantage at key resistance levels soon at 7.30 and 4.59 respectively.

Similarly for USD/CNH at 7.30 key resistance level.

Euro extends losses after last month’s monster gains

Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges  

Key global risk events

Calendar: 24 – 29 March  

All times AEDT

Have a question? [email protected]

*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.

Across the globe, the growing adoption of digital payments is fueling an innovation boom. As the industry expands, so does the threat of fraud, costing businesses, financial institutions and individuals hundreds of billions of dollars annually.

Fraudsters are becoming more sophisticated, leveraging AI-generated deepfakes, synthetic identities and real-time payment (RTP) scams to outsmart traditional security measures. Financial institutions must continuously refine fraud detection techniques, strive to detect anomalies and strengthen collaboration with industry peers and regulators to prevent, detect and respond to emerging threats in real time.

The ever-rising threat of financial crime in cross border payments

With the payment solutions market expanding, malicious actors are also adapting. They’re enhancing existing tactics and perusing the latest technological solutions to devise new schemes to defraud businesses, consumers and governments.

“For years, banks have focused on understanding and technological advances of detecting fraud,” Karen Boyer, SVP and Director of Fraud Intelligence at M&T Bank, says on the Converge podcast. “Fraudsters quickly adapted, noticing that often the weakest link is the human.”

What’s fintech fraud?

Fintech fraud refers to any deceptive or illegal activity within the financial technology (fintech) industry. Fintech companies are particularly vulnerable to fraud because their solutions are easy and convenient to use and they handle sensitive data, such as banking details or transaction histories. This makes it harder and more important for fintech companies to protect user data and prevent unauthorized access, breaches or fraud. Leveraging advanced technologies and robust security measures is crucial in safeguarding against these threats.

Fraud by the numbers

Today’s fraud economy is thriving. Financial crime is organized, automated and scalable.

According to the Nasdaq Verafin Global Financial Crime Report, an estimated $3.1 trillion of illicit funds flowed through the global economy in 2023. This accounts for approximately 3% of total economic activity. Scams and other financial fraud schemes are among the leading causes of significant financial losses for both individuals and institutions — they are estimated to amount to $485.6 billion.

In the US alone, financial fraud costs the economy $138.3 billion. Adding those losses back would have boosted economic growth by more than 0.5%, lifting annual GDP growth to over 3%.

In 2024, the volume of fraudulent transactions and dollars lost to fraud grew at a faster rate than in the previous year. The share of fraud stemming from scams rose by 56%, while the losses rose by 121%. Now, banks report scams as the most common form of fraud, accounting for 23% of all fraudulent transactions.

Who’s affected by financial fraud?

The short answer is — everyone. In 2024, 60% of financial institutions and fintechs reported increased fraud. Enterprise banks reported the most fraud growth, at nearly 70%.

The good news is that, according to Alloy’s 2025 State of Fraud Report, many financial institutions are now better equipped to recognize fraudulent transactions. Nearly all decision-makers (99%) are ramping up efforts to detect attacks using some form of machine learning or artificial intelligence (AI) to protect all stakeholders.

Key trends

Just as technical innovation is improving fraud detection and response, it also makes fraud increasingly sophisticated and better at exploiting vulnerabilities.

Malicious AI-powered tools are readily available for purchase on dark web marketplaces, Telegram and even mainstream social media platforms, and bad actors can perpetrate large-scale scams with minimal effort.

Fraud is appealing: “Detection is relatively low, the payout is big, and fraud is perceived to be part of the cost of doing business,” David Maimon, Head of Fraud Insights at SentiLink, explains. “So why not?”

Some of the most pertinent types of fraud in 2025 include:

Synthetic identities

A synthetic identity is a mix of real and fake information. It’s a made-up person with enough credibility to open bank accounts, get loans, send payments and disappear with stolen funds. Synthetic identity theft occurs when fraudsters combine stolen personally identifiable information (PII), such as a Social Security number, with a fabricated name or birthdate to bypass identity verification.

Because synthetic identities contain legitimate data, they often evade traditional fraud detection systems.

To combat synthetic identity fraud, financial institutions leverage advanced machine learning algorithms to help verify identities from various additional sources. They also join anti-fraud networks to access a shared database of fraud reports.

Fraud-as-a-Service (FaaS)

FaaS has become an industry, now thriving on a global scale. With generative AI, fraudsters-for-hire can effortlessly streamline account openings, manipulate screen layouts and automate onboarding, perpetrating fraud across multiple financial institutions.

Seventy-one percent of financial institutions reported that organized crime rings perpetrated the majority of fraud attempts aimed at their organizations.

Social engineering and deepfake scams

Business email compromise (BEC) is a type of phishing or social engineering attack in which a fraudster tricks the victim into sending money or sharing sensitive information by pretending to be a boss, a trusted colleague or a business partner. BEC scams and account takeovers (ATO) often employ a sense of urgency to mislead the victim, obtain their login credentials and gain unauthorized access to financial accounts.

Fears that generative AI images, videos and audio clips would unleash a tsunami of fraud have not yet come to fruition. However, deepfake tools are rapidly evolving and expected to grow substantially.

Since phishing scams and social engineering attacks exploit human behavior rather than technical vulnerabilities, awareness and education remain the most effective defense tactics against this type of fraud.

Payments fraud

Real-time payment fraud and authorized push payment (APP) fraud are two types of scams commonly seen with digital payments. Criminals use stolen credit card information or hijacked online payment accounts to complete unauthorized transactions. While they are distinct in principle, APP fraud often employs RTP systems for the same reason consumers and businesses love them — their convenience and immediacy. The biggest challenge with this type of fraud is that there’s no “undo” button: Once money is sent, it’s gone.

Fraudsters can gain access to an account or exploit RTP infrastructure to steal money, but they most often use social engineering to convince victims to authorize payments they can’t reverse.

Through a multilayered approach of communication, education and technology, financial institutions and fintech companies can help mitigate the impact of payments fraud.



Fighting fraud with innovation and collaboration

Alongside traditional financial institutions, the fintech sector deploys innovative solutions, such as AI-powered fraud detection tools that discover anomalies in real time, enhance biometric authentication and secure open banking frameworks. Blockchain and distributed ledger technology help fintech companies address the challenges of cross-border payments, offering transparency and traceability, reducing fraud risk and enhancing security.

By embracing next-generation fraud prevention strategies, fintechs can stay ahead of financial criminals and build a more secure digital finance ecosystem.

Fraud prevention and detection strategies

To prevent and detect fintech fraud, companies should follow these 10 best practices:

1. Strong authentication processes: Implement strong authentication mechanisms such as multi-factor authentication (MFA), biometric verification and strict password policies to make unauthorized access much more difficult.
2. Advanced encryption: Encrypt data at rest and in transit with strong, up-to-date encryption standards to ensure that data cannot be easily understood or misused.
3. Fraud detection systems: Use AI and machine learning to detect and prevent fraud in real time by analyzing transaction patterns and flagging anomalies.
4. Regular security audits: Conduct regular audits of security infrastructure to identify and address vulnerabilities before attackers can exploit them.
5. Employee training: Hold regular employee training sessions on the latest fraud prevention techniques and security best practices to prevent human error.
6. Secure software development practices: Prioritize security at every stage of software development to prevent vulnerabilities.
7. Transaction limits and alerts: Set limits on transaction sizes or frequencies to mitigate the impact of fraud.
8. API security: Secure APIs with proper authentication and encryption and limit data access based on user or service roles.
9. Monitoring and response: Build a dedicated team to monitor for signs of fraud and respond quickly to minimize damage.
10. Customer education: Educate customers about fraud risks and safe practices to help prevent them from falling prey to phishing or other forms of social engineering.

The role of user education

User education plays a crucial role in preventing fintech fraud.

By educating consumers — and employees — about the risks of fraud and how to protect themselves, fintech companies can reduce the likelihood of successful fraud attempts. They can do this by providing insights into common types of fraud, such as phishing and social engineering, and offering tips on detecting and preventing these types of attacks.

Empowering with knowledge helps create a more secure financial environment and reduces the overall impact of fraud.

Regulatory requirements for fintech fraud prevention

Fintech companies must comply with various regulatory requirements designed to prevent fraud and protect consumer data. These requirements may include:

1. Know Your Customer (KYC): Fintech companies must verify the identity of their customers and maintain records of this information.
2. Anti-Money Laundering (AML): Fintech companies must implement measures to detect and prevent money laundering activities.
3. Payment Card Industry Data Security Standard (PCI DSS): Fintech companies that handle payment card information must comply with PCI DSS requirements to ensure the secure storage and transmission of this data.
4. General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR): Fintech companies that handle personal data of EU citizens must comply with GDPR requirements to ensure the secure storage and transmission of this data.

By following these best practices and complying with regulatory requirements, fintech companies can reduce the risk of fraud and protect their customers’ sensitive information.

Payments fraud detection: Strategies to detect anomalies

Real-time payments call for real-time fraud detection. Using machine learning algorithms and AI, the latest tools can screen cross-border real-time payments before a payment request reaches the bank.

For example, machine learning models can analyze user behavior or device-specific information to verify a user’s identity and create a unique profile for each user. This can help detect an account takeover or APP fraud in real time.

Adding APIs to the payment platform can help keep financial institutions safe from fraud damage. APIs can automate security, regulations and sanctions screenings, identify anomalies and block suspicious payments.

Why collaboration is key to stopping financial crime

Even with the most advanced tools, fighting fraud is no easy task. A culture of transparency is essential — without openly sharing information about fraud incidents, businesses remain vulnerable.

In the US, for example, there’s no unified jurisdiction, so a business can file a fraud complaint in six or seven different places.

This fragmentation makes cross-border payment operations particularly challenging, as fraudsters tend to adapt quickly to new paradigms. For financial institutions, the solution often lies in greater collaboration and the trend towards open data.

In response, fintech organizations have been forming fraud data sharing consortiums, such as Sonar, allowing banks and other financial institutions to verify whether their customer data has been compromised in a breach or used for fraudulent activities.

As the global commerce and cross-border payments ecosystem expands, so does the awareness that its participants and stakeholders must work together to combat financial crime.

Want more insights on the topics shaping the future of cross-border payments? Tune in to Converge, with new episodes every Wednesday.

Plus, register for the Daily Market Update to get the latest currency news and FX analysis from our experts directly to your inbox.

Written by the Market Insights Team

Reading between the bond lines

Kevin Ford – FX & Macro Strategist

There’s a clear divide between soft and hard economic data. Measures like the Philly Fed index, the NAHB index, and business and consumer sentiment indicators have sharply declined. Just yesterday, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence index, which has recently driven a shift from U.S. equities toward European and global markets, fell again, hitting its lowest level since 2022. U.S. consumer confidence dropped for the fourth consecutive month due to growing concerns about tariffs and inflation. Short-term expectations for income, jobs, and business dipped to 65.2—a 12-year low. The Conference Board warns that a reading below 80 could signal a potential recession in the near future. On the hard data side, rising WARN notices and increased job cuts are worrisome. However, initial jobless claims remain low, retail sales have been steady, and Q1 growth is still pointing to modestly positive.

The markets, this time, seem less rattled by the report. The VIX index is holding around 17, while the FX market reaction has been muted, with the dollar consolidating last week’s gains. It appears markets are following Powell’s lead in treating survey data as ‘noise.’ His recent comments at last week’s FOMC meeting stood out—he dismissed survey data on inflation expectations, emphasizing that they remain well-anchored.

Also, spreads in U.S. investment grade fixed income, which typically act as a barometer for economic health concerns, have shown surprising resilience. Despite heightened market volatility and a surge in recession predictions for 2025 in recent weeks, these spreads have not deteriorated. This stability stands out against the backdrop of increasing economic uncertainty.

This raises an important question: Are markets underestimating the economic impact of tariffs, or have they already absorbed the implications of the aggressive trade policies? It is possible that markets have priced in the uncertainty, leading to an overreaction in light of the challenges posed by the current trade environment.

Looking ahead, the upcoming University of Michigan report will be of relevance. If confidence measures drop further or inflation expectations climb, it could challenge the Federal Reserve’s stance, making it harder to downplay troubling trends in consumer surveys.

The CAD strengthened yesterday, aided by President Trump’s praise for Canada and Mexico’s progress, stating they’ve ‘stepped it up a lot.’ USD/CAD is trading below its 100-day SMA (1.426), at 1.425, as tariff concerns ease temporarily ahead of April 2nd.

A surprising spring in sterling’s step

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

As the Spring Statement beckons, the British pound has an unusual spring in its step considering the event has been dubbed more of a downside risk for sterling by many investors and economists. GBP/USD remains buoyant around $1.29, nearer the top end of its 5-month range, whilst GBP/EUR clipped €1.20 this morning, up 0.5% this week and clawing back its month-to-date losses. UK inflation data and the subsequent rise in Bank of England (BoE) easing bets have weighed slightly this morning though.

Despite the the doom and gloom surrounding the Spring Statement, sterling is showing resilience, which is hard to explain given the ongoing tariff-related anxiety amongst market participants, keeping risk taking in check too. Moreover, this morning we saw UK headline inflation data coming in softer than expected at 2.8% y/y versus 3%. Core inflation also surprised a tick lower at 3.5%. However, service inflation, a key indicator of domestic price pressures, was unchanged at 5%, versus the expected 4.9%. Overall, the picture hasn’t become any clearer for the BoE and its policy path, but the probability of a cut in May has jumped from under 60% to 75% today. Still, despite the gradual loosening cycle that the BoE has flagged, two-year gilt yields have actually risen since the central bank last cut rates in February. This shows how skeptical the markets have become about the central bank’s ability to keep cutting rates.

Higher Gilt yields also means higher debt interest costs have wiped out the Chancellor’s wiggle room already. This brings us to today’s focus where Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, aims to recoup that £10bn in ‘headroom’ lost. In short, it is expected that the Treasury will have to curtail its future spending ambitions to achieve this and we already know new welfare cuts are on the cards. The remaining savings would presumably come from trimming departmental budgets. But spending cuts might provide only a temporary fix to deeper budgetary challenges given UK gross government debt has seen the largest rise across 40 advanced economies, according to IMF data.

The rise reflects Britain’s stagnant economic growth and the legacy of costly government responses to the pandemic and higher energy costs. In an environment of lower growth and higher interest rates, it is more difficult to get public debt as a share of GDP falling.

Trade war consequences are showing

Boris Kovacevic – Global Macro Strategist

The US dollar followed Treasury yields lower on Tuesday, ending a four-day winning streak. Weak economic data and trade-related uncertainty continued to weigh on sentiment. Equities managed to hold onto modest gains, though early enthusiasm faded into the close as investors digested fresh signals of a slowing consumer and growing concerns over trade policy. This means that the Greenback is still on track for its worst month in over a year at a drawdown of 3.2%.

Hopes that Trump’s tariffs would boost US growth have been replaced by fears of stagflation and recession, with investors increasingly skeptical of the administration’s economic strategy. Consumer confidence took a significant hit in March, with the Conference Board’s index dropping to 92.9, its lowest level in four years. The expectations component was particularly weak, plunging nearly 10 points to a 12-year low. Households appear to be growing more anxious about rising prices and deteriorating economic conditions.

Fed officials, meanwhile, continue to emphasize caution. Governor Adriana Kugler noted an uptick in inflation expectations alongside rising goods prices, underscoring the central bank’s reluctance to ease policy in the near term. Her comments suggest that policymakers remain wary of cutting rates too soon, particularly as recent inflation surprises keep the risk of price pressures alive.

At the same time, uncertainty around the scope and implementation of US tariffs is keeping markets on edge. Trump hinted on Monday that some of his planned levies may not go into effect on April 2, fueling speculation that the administration could adopt a more flexible approach. However, the president’s latest move to introduce “secondary tariffs” on nations purchasing Venezuelan oil adds another layer of unpredictability to US trade policy, raising concerns about broader diplomatic and economic repercussions.

More short-term pain for the euro

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

Although the euro is under pressure of late, supportive fiscal and monetary policy should make for further gains in the future, or at least partially offset the blow from US tariffs on the Eurozone. Investor confidence and Eurozone business activity are improving, driving bond yields higher, but the reality is that FX traders are cautious ahead of Trump’s upcoming tariff deadline next week, especially given the euro’s on track for its biggest monthly gain in over two years – hence profit taking likely.

The ongoing nervousness amongst market participants regarding Trump’s reciprocal tariffs could keep safe havens, including the US dollar in high demand over the next week. As with many policy processes under Trump, the situation remains fluid and no decision is final until the president announces it. However, front-loaded fiscal policy in the wake of the historic German stimulus plans, could help cushion the economic impact of tariffs, and therefore limit downside risks for the euro. But euro upside may be priced in already to a certain extent.

Positive signs are emerging though. Germany’s most prominent leading indicator, the Ifo index, increased in March to 86.7, from 85.2 in February, its highest level since July last year. While business expectations surged to 87.7, from 85.6 in February, following the historic debt deal. The current assessment component improved somewhat but remains close to recent lows. Combining the latest confidence indicators with available hard data suggests that the German economy has bottomed out in the first quarter of the new year, even if it’s too early to call an end to stagnation.

Meanwhile, in the equity space, Germany remains favoured, as 70% of respondents in Bank of America’s fund manager survey last week, identified German stimulus as key to European growth. The German benchmark DAX index has already outperformed all European peers as it stands to benefit from increased fiscal spending, particularly in cyclical sectors like industrials and chemicals.

Dollar, oil and stocks on top

Table: 7-day currency trends and trading ranges

Key global risk events

Calendar: March 24-28

All times are in ET

Have a question? [email protected]

*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.

Written by the Market Insights Team

A surprising spring in sterling’s step

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

As the Spring Statement beckons, the British pound has an unusual spring in its step considering the event has been dubbed more of a downside risk for sterling by many investors and economists. GBP/USD remains buoyant around $1.29, nearer the top end of its 5-month range, whilst GBP/EUR clipped €1.20 this morning, up 0.5% this week and clawing back its month-to-date losses. UK inflation data and the subsequent rise in Bank of England (BoE) easing bets have weighed slightly this morning though.

Despite the the doom and gloom surrounding the Spring Statement, sterling is showing resilience, which is hard to explain given the ongoing tariff-related anxiety amongst market participants, keeping risk taking in check too. Moreover, this morning we saw UK headline inflation data coming in softer than expected at 2.8% y/y versus 3%. Core inflation also surprised a tick lower at 3.5%. However, service inflation, a key indicator of domestic price pressures, was unchanged at 5%, versus the expected 4.9%. Overall, the picture hasn’t become any clearer for the BoE and its policy path, but the probability of a cut in May has jumped from under 60% to 75% today. Still, despite the gradual loosening cycle that the BoE has flagged, two-year gilt yields have actually risen since the central bank last cut rates in February. This shows how skeptical the markets have become about the central bank’s ability to keep cutting rates.

Higher Gilt yields also means higher debt interest costs have wiped out the Chancellor’s wiggle room already. This brings us to today’s focus where Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, aims to recoup that £10bn in ‘headroom’ lost. In short, it is expected that the Treasury will have to curtail its future spending ambitions to achieve this and we already know new welfare cuts are on the cards. The remaining savings would presumably come from trimming departmental budgets. But spending cuts might provide only a temporary fix to deeper budgetary challenges given UK gross government debt has seen the largest rise across 40 advanced economies, according to IMF data.

The rise reflects Britain’s stagnant economic growth and the legacy of costly government responses to the pandemic and higher energy costs. In an environment of lower growth and higher interest rates, it is more difficult to get public debt as a share of GDP falling.

Trade war consequences are showing

Boris Kovacevic – Global Macro Strategist

The US dollar followed Treasury yields lower on Tuesday, ending a four-day winning streak. Weak economic data and trade-related uncertainty continued to weigh on sentiment. Equities managed to hold onto modest gains, though early enthusiasm faded into the close as investors digested fresh signals of a slowing consumer and growing concerns over trade policy. This means that the Greenback is still on track for its worst month in over a year at a drawdown of 3.2%.

Hopes that Trump’s tariffs would boost US growth have been replaced by fears of stagflation and recession, with investors increasingly skeptical of the administration’s economic strategy. Consumer confidence took a significant hit in March, with the Conference Board’s index dropping to 92.9, its lowest level in four years. The expectations component was particularly weak, plunging nearly 10 points to a 12-year low. Households appear to be growing more anxious about rising prices and deteriorating economic conditions.

Fed officials, meanwhile, continue to emphasize caution. Governor Adriana Kugler noted an uptick in inflation expectations alongside rising goods prices, underscoring the central bank’s reluctance to ease policy in the near term. Her comments suggest that policymakers remain wary of cutting rates too soon, particularly as recent inflation surprises keep the risk of price pressures alive.

At the same time, uncertainty around the scope and implementation of US tariffs is keeping markets on edge. Trump hinted on Monday that some of his planned levies may not go into effect on April 2, fueling speculation that the administration could adopt a more flexible approach. However, the president’s latest move to introduce “secondary tariffs” on nations purchasing Venezuelan oil adds another layer of unpredictability to US trade policy, raising concerns about broader diplomatic and economic repercussions.

More short-term pain for the euro

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

Although the euro is under pressure of late, supportive fiscal and monetary policy should make for further gains in the future, or at least partially offset the blow from US tariffs on the Eurozone. Investor confidence and Eurozone business activity are improving, driving bond yields higher, but the reality is that FX traders are cautious ahead of Trump’s upcoming tariff deadline next week, especially given the euro’s on track for its biggest monthly gain in over two years – hence profit taking likely.

The ongoing nervousness amongst market participants regarding Trump’s reciprocal tariffs could keep safe havens, including the US dollar in high demand over the next week. As with many policy processes under Trump, the situation remains fluid and no decision is final until the president announces it. However, front-loaded fiscal policy in the wake of the historic German stimulus plans, could help cushion the economic impact of tariffs, and therefore limit downside risks for the euro. But euro upside may be priced in already to a certain extent.

Positive signs are emerging though. Germany’s most prominent leading indicator, the Ifo index, increased in March to 86.7, from 85.2 in February, its highest level since July last year. While business expectations surged to 87.7, from 85.6 in February, following the historic debt deal. The current assessment component improved somewhat but remains close to recent lows. Combining the latest confidence indicators with available hard data suggests that the German economy has bottomed out in the first quarter of the new year, even if it’s too early to call an end to stagnation.

Meanwhile, in the equity space, Germany remains favoured, as 70% of respondents in Bank of America’s fund manager survey last week, identified German stimulus as key to European growth. The German benchmark DAX index has already outperformed all European peers as it stands to benefit from increased fiscal spending, particularly in cyclical sectors like industrials and chemicals.

Dollar, oil and stocks on top

Table: 7-day currency trends and trading ranges

Key global risk events

Calendar: March 24-28

All times are in GMT

Have a question? [email protected]

*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.