The US has implemented its steepest tariffs on trade partners in over a century, with rates varying significantly across regions. The most striking development is the 104% tariff imposed on Chinese goods, signalling a major escalation in trade tensions. If these measures remain in place, they could effectively isolate the world’s two largest economies from one another. But this trade war is not just about tariffs; it reflects a broader geopolitical rivalry that could reshape global trade dynamics for years to come. Wild swings in markets continue as traders grapple with pricing the impact of a the conflict.
Hopes for market stability were short-lived yesterday. The 4% rebound in the S&P 500 evaporated to end with a loss of 1.6% – its biggest U-turn since at least 1978. The tech-heavy Nasdaq suffered its biggest blowdown since at least 1982 – falling deeper into bear market territory. The VIX fear index closed above 50 for the first time in over four years and is now almost four standard deviations above the long-term average. This marks a level of volatility most recently seen in 2020 (pandemic) and 2008 (GFC). Oil prices have also sunk to fresh 4-year lows on global growth and demand concerns.
The selloff in longer-dated Treasuries also gained momentum, with the US 10-year yield climbing above 4.5% and the 30-year yield briefly surpassing 5%. Investors appear to be stepping away from what was once considered the world’s safest asset, driven by expectations of weakening foreign demand as tariffs take hold. If the current pace of these bond moves persists, it could prompt central banks, including the Federal Reserve, to reassess their positions, even amid lingering concerns about persistent inflation pressures.
Turbulence to persist in FX
George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist
In FX, currency traders are positioning for turbulence to get even worse with hedging costs to protect against large swings surging. The dollar’s status as a post-pandemic safe haven is unravelling under the weight of President Trump’s tariffs, which risk triggering stagflation in the US economy. These measures are also undermining the narrative of US exceptionalism that has shaped the investment landscape for decades.
Meanwhile, China has set its currency at its weakest since 2007. the offshore yuan is a record lows. The safe haven Swiss franc remains the top haven of choice in the FX market. But Swiss officials will be eying this closely with rate cuts and FX intervention measures up their sleeve to rein in the currency. Antipodeans remain vulnerable – the Aussie and Kiwi dollars near multi-year lows.
While there were hints that President Trump might consider tariff deals, the path to negotiations remains fraught. Globally, investors are increasingly anxious about potential cracks in the financial system amid heightened volatility. This uncertainty has sparked speculation that the Fed may need to accelerate rate cuts to stabilize the situation.
Meanwhile, flying under the radar but still important to note – small US businesses foresee business conditions worsening ahead, a result of domestic and global policy choices. The NFIB’s small-business optimism index fell more than expected in March. A drop in business conditions and sales expectations was mostly behind the headline decline. Ultimately, uncertainty remains too high for small businesses to plan ahead.
Euro surges again
George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist
EUR/USD has shot back above $1.10 today and is now up 10% from March lows. Momentum looks to be in the euro’s favour and we wouldn’t be surprised to see $1.12 trade soon given the price action over the last few days. Options markets are sending mixed signals though, with one-week risk reversals still leaning euro-bullish, but moving sharply lower versus a week ago.
The euro’s high liquidity continues to shield it from the heightened volatility seen in high beta G10 peers. The common currency is enjoying a surge of increased flows as traders dump the dollar. The lack of stresses showing up in USD funding markets may also be a sign that investors are much less eager to pile into dollars this time round.
While the European Union has expressed readiness to negotiate tariff-free options with the US, such discussions are likely to take time. In the meantime, the EU is proceeding with measured retaliation against US tariffs, including 25% duties on various US products. A vote on such measures is expected today.
Sterling caught in the crossfire
George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist
Amidst the broad-based dollar weakness, GBP/USD is back above $1.28, bouncing of its 50-day moving average this week. However, the euro’s strength has dragged GBP/EUR to fresh 6-month lows, with the pair fighting to stay afloat the €1.16 handle.
There may be scope for a more protracted recovery in the likes of GBP/USD as investors continue to shun US assets, though we’re unsure whether it has legs to, or if the pound is attractive enough in this environment to allow the $1.32 peak of this year to trade again any time soon. Cutting through the noise, we point to rate differentials, which suggests the current $1.28-$1.29 is fair value at present. Markets are pricing in more rate cuts by the Bank of England this year – but to pick up the pace of easing the BoE would likely need to see inflation moderate below its February forecasts.
As for sterling versus the euro, the pair has dropped for four days straight – with a cumulative decline of over 3% despite rate differentials pointing to €1.19 fair value. The pair is heavily oversold on the daily relative strength index, meaning it may be unwise to chase the trend much lower from here.
*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
Written by Steven Dooley, Head of Market Insights, and Shier Lee Lim, Lead FX and Macro Strategist
Aussie, kiwi and yuan pressured as trade war escalates
Global markets took another step lower overnight, snuffing out an initial rally in US markets, with the benchmark S&P 500 down 1.6% and Nasdaq down 2.2%.
However, the losses mask the full extent of the reversal, with the S&P 500 down 5.4% from last night’s highs while the Nasdaq tumbled 6.4% from the day’s best levels.
In FX markets, the focus was on China after the Trump administration responded to Friday’s increase in Chinese tariffs on US goods. The White House said that an additional 50% tariff on Chinese goods would be implemented at midnight on Wednesday (EDT), bringing the total US tariff on Chinese good to 104%.
The Chinese yuan tumbled on the news with the CNH, the offshore currency, falling to the lowest level since it was launched in 2010, as USD/CNH climbed above 7.40 for the first time ever. The CNY neared the lowest level since 2008.
Across the region, the Aussie and kiwi also gave up earlier gains. The AUD/USD ended back below 0.6000 with a 0.6% loss.
The NZD/USD, down 0.4%, continues to hold just above technical support at 0.5500.
US tariffs drive inflation concerns
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee highlighted growing concerns among US business executives regarding the inflationary impact of tariffs. He noted that while recent economic data has been relatively positive, tariffs could disrupt supply chains and potentially reignite inflationary pressures reminiscent of 2021-2022.
This uncertainty has made short-term economic forecasting more challenging.
USD/SGD recently eased from eight-week highs. The next key support levels for USD/SGD are at 50-day EMA 1.3421 and 200-day EMA at 1.3400.
Advances are expected to be corrective, with resistance at 1.3531 marking a potential shift to a positive price momentum if breached.
RBNZ mulls 50bps cut
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision will be closely watched today as a potential bellwether on central bank moves – will the RBNZ react to market moves and go big?
New Zealand’s Q1 Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) revealed a sharp drop in pricing intentions, reaching their lowest level since the initial COVID-19 lockdowns in 2020.
The index fell to +2, significantly below its long-term average of 20 and the lowest since 2015, excluding lockdown periods.
This decline suggests that inflationary pressures are easing, with the headline CPI likely to fall short of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) 2025 midpoint target of 2%. Historically, New Zealand’s CPI has averaged 2.4% year-over-year since 1990.
In light of these developments, for the RBNZ rate decision today, a 25bps rate cut to 3.50% is anticipated, with a 50bps cut also being a possibility.
The easing pricing intentions reflect a broader trend of subdued inflation, which could influence the RBNZ’s monetary policy decisions moving forward.
NZD/USD is now near five-year lows of March 2020. Key support level for NZD/USD remains at 0.5500 handle, with next key resistance level at 50-day EMA of 0.5706.
Aussie, kiwi back at lows
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
The trajectory of global markets hinges on three critical drivers—each offering little hope of materializing in the near term:
1. The “Trump Put”: A shift in rhetoric or mentions of negotiations with major trading partners could provide some relief, as markets hope that tariffs serve as both structural reforms and tactical bargaining tools. However, President Trump has made it clear that tariffs are here to stay. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has outlined the administration’s expectations for reciprocal tariffs, emphasizing a focus on addressing non-tariff trade barriers as part of a broader “reordering of fair trade.” Lutnick anticipates that most countries will reassess their trade policies toward the U.S., with negotiations only likely if significant changes are made to tariffs and trade barriers.
Also, while equity markets have reacted sharply, President Trump ’47 differs notably from his earlier term. He has consistently downplayed market reactions, prioritizing lower interest rates, declining oil prices, and reduced costs for essentials like eggs. He has reiterated that he won’t yield to market pressures, framing short-term disruptions as acceptable trade-offs for long-term goals.
2. The “Fed Put”: Investors are eyeing the possibility of an emergency rate cut or liquidity injection to stabilize markets. President Trump has publicly urged Fed Chair Jerome Powell to lower rates via social media. However, the Fed faces a challenging balancing act. Despite lagging indicators, job data still suggests stability, complicating the risk assessment between employment and inflation. There are rumors of a potential meeting of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors ahead of their scheduled May 7 meeting. Still, a rate cut in May seems unlikely, even after the S&P’s recent 10%+ drop.
3. Hard Data: While high inflation and low growth are widely expected, the looming question remains whether a recession is on the horizon. Historically, the U.S. labor market has been a lagging indicator. For instance, the jobless rate was just 6.1% in September 2008 but peaked at 10% in late 2009. Consumption, particularly for big-ticket items like automobiles, is likely to respond more swiftly to economic shifts. The reality is that, we’re still away from a recession in 2025, even as odds have risen recently.
The situation remains highly fluid, with tensions escalating on multiple fronts. Vietnam—one of the nations hit hardest by tariffs—offers a compelling case study for market adaptation. President Trump recently hinted at progress in trade discussions with Vietnam’s leader via social media, though he emphasized that this does not signal an immediate lifting of tariffs on the country.
Meanwhile, domestic political pressure is intensifying. Senator Cruz, usually a firm ally of President Trump, has raised alarm over a possible “midterm bloodbath.” This comes amid growing dissent among Republicans, with four senators already breaking ranks to oppose tariffs on Canada.
In FX, the last couple of sessions have seen some swings, with the dollar steadily regaining its reputation as a reliable safe haven. However, as global market fears ease briefly, the dollar’s moves remain erratic, giving back part of its recent gains.
Markets whipsaw on conflicting headlines
George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist
Financial markets experienced more turbulence on what was a manic Monday, with equities swinging between sharp gains and losses on tariff related headlines. But safe haven bonds are being dumped too, with the 10-year Treasury yield jumping sharply back above 4% in what was the biggest single daily gain in almost three years. The US dollar remains under pressure despite its haven status, whilst the Swiss franc is emerging as the safest bet in the FX space.
Rumours of a 90-day tariff pause sparked a global risk rally before the White House declared “fake news”. Equity declines then extended after President Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs of 50% on China unless Beijing withdraws its 34% retaliatory duty on US goods. These measures, combined with existing tariffs, highlight the administration’s determination to impose duties on virtually all trading partners.
The Nasdaq Composite was swinging from a 4.5% gain to a loss of around 5% at Monday’s intraday extremes, putting it on pace for the most dramatic intraday spread since November 2008. In the FX markets, safe haven demand soared, mostly benefiting the Swiss franc, surging 3.5% since last week against the USD and not far from levels that have proved to be unsustainable in the past.
Price action is already reminiscent of significant dislocations like Covid and the global financial crisis. Volatility is rife, and it may remain this way until we get more clarity on the ultimate level and duration of tariffs. The elevated volatility, reflected in the VIX reaching crisis-level readings, underscores the precarious state of financial markets.
Europe to vote on retaliation measures
George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist
In Europe, the Stoxx 50 plunged more than 7% before closing 5.4% lower, its lowest since August. The Stoxx 600 fell as much as 6% before narrowing losses to end 4.5% down, its lowest since January 2024. The euro didn’t escape the FX volatility, but it proved resilient – holding above the $1.09 handle versus the US dollar whilst rising to a 6-month high against the pound.
It’s been an abrupt reversal for European stocks. After riding on optimism in past weeks over talks of German fiscal reforms and European investment in defence, Trump’s tariffs have now triggered a market rout. The situation remains extremely fluid though. At one point, headlines revealed the EU was looking at reducing its retaliation against US steel tariffs after member states lobbied to protect their industries. But now, it appears the bloc is planning 25% tariffs on a range of US products – from yachts to tobacco. The total amount of US exports affected would be €22.1 billion based on the EU’s 2024 imports, according to public Eurostat figures. EU governments will vote on the plan on Wednesday.
In terms of where that leaves the euro – it’s still a tug of war between tariff pain and the fiscal response from Europe. Although a global trade war would typically weigh on the euro, the vulnerabilities in the US economy and the fiscal response from Europe are currently the driving force for EUR/USD, keeping it supported more than other major currencies outside the typical safe havens.
Tariff haven no more
George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist
Sterling’s resilience to tariff risks has come to an end. GBP/USD sunk over 1% on Monday to touch its lowest level in five weeks – extending its drop from $1.32 touched just last Thursday. GBP/EUR also dropped around 1%, failing to hold above its 200-week moving average at €1.17, and breaking below a long-term upward sloping trendline that’s been in place since late 2022.
Although the UK has been slapped with the lowest tariff rate of 10%, it will still suffer from a global trade war and global economic slowdown. Ultimately the pound is a pro-cyclical currency that usually appreciates in good times and depreciates in bad times. With global investor sentiment so weak and volatility so elevated, it was only a matter of time before investor ditched the UK currency in favour of safer alternatives with current account surpluses.
The threat of the economic slowdown spilling into the UK is why markets also anticipate more Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts. Markets are now pricing in around 88 basis points of reductions to the BoE’s benchmark rate by December, up from about 43 basis points at the end of March. The likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the BoE’s next policy meeting in May has also surged to around 90%.
In a context where safe-haven demand continues to dictate sentiment amid the chaos of US tariffs FX traders are turning more bearish on the pound, especially since both GBP/USD and GBP/EUR have broken below their 200-day moving averages. Sterling will require a rebound in global risk appetite in order to claw back recent losses.
*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
Financial markets experienced more turbulence on what was a manic Monday, with equities swinging between sharp gains and losses on tariff related headlines. But safe haven bonds are being dumped too, with the 10-year Treasury yield jumping sharply back above 4% in what was the biggest single daily gain in almost three years. The US dollar remains under pressure despite its haven status, whilst the Swiss franc is emerging as the safest bet in the FX space.
Rumours of a 90-day tariff pause sparked a global risk rally before the White House declared “fake news”. Equity declines then extended after President Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs of 50% on China unless Beijing withdraws its 34% retaliatory duty on US goods. These measures, combined with existing tariffs, highlight the administration’s determination to impose duties on virtually all trading partners.
The Nasdaq Composite was swinging from a 4.5% gain to a loss of around 5% at Monday’s intraday extremes, putting it on pace for the most dramatic intraday spread since November 2008. In the FX markets, safe haven demand soared, mostly benefiting the Swiss franc, surging 3.5% since last week against the USD and not far from levels that have proved to be unsustainable in the past.
Price action is already reminiscent of significant dislocations like Covid and the global financial crisis. Volatility is rife, and it may remain this way until we get more clarity on the ultimate level and duration of tariffs. The elevated volatility, reflected in the VIX reaching crisis-level readings, underscores the precarious state of financial markets.
Europe to vote on retaliation measures
George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist
In Europe, the Stoxx 50 plunged more than 7% before closing 5.4% lower, its lowest since August. The Stoxx 600 fell as much as 6% before narrowing losses to end 4.5% down, its lowest since January 2024. The euro didn’t escape the FX volatility, but it proved resilient – holding above the $1.09 handle versus the US dollar whilst rising to a 6-month high against the pound.
It’s been an abrupt reversal for European stocks. After riding on optimism in past weeks over talks of German fiscal reforms and European investment in defence, Trump’s tariffs have now triggered a market rout. The situation remains extremely fluid though. At one point, headlines revealed the EU was looking at reducing its retaliation against US steel tariffs after member states lobbied to protect their industries. But now, it appears the bloc is planning 25% tariffs on a range of US products – from yachts to tobacco. The total amount of US exports affected would be €22.1 billion based on the EU’s 2024 imports, according to public Eurostat figures. EU governments will vote on the plan on Wednesday.
In terms of where that leaves the euro – it’s still a tug of war between tariff pain and the fiscal response from Europe. Although a global trade war would typically weigh on the euro, the vulnerabilities in the US economy and the fiscal response from Europe are currently the driving force for EUR/USD, keeping it supported more than other major currencies outside the typical safe havens.
Tariff haven no more
George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist
Sterling’s resilience to tariff risks has come to an end. GBP/USD sunk over 1% on Monday to touch its lowest level in five weeks – extending its drop from $1.32 touched just last Thursday. GBP/EUR also dropped around 1%, failing to hold above its 200-week moving average at €1.17, and breaking below a long-term upward sloping trendline that’s been in place since late 2022.
Although the UK has been slapped with the lowest tariff rate of 10%, it will still suffer from a global trade war and global economic slowdown. Ultimately the pound is a pro-cyclical currency that usually appreciates in good times and depreciates in bad times. With global investor sentiment so weak and volatility so elevated, it was only a matter of time before investor ditched the UK currency in favour of safer alternatives with current account surpluses.
The threat of the economic slowdown spilling into the UK is why markets also anticipate more Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts. Markets are now pricing in around 88 basis points of reductions to the BoE’s benchmark rate by December, up from about 43 basis points at the end of March. The likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the BoE’s next policy meeting in May has also surged to around 90%.
In a context where safe-haven demand continues to dictate sentiment amid the chaos of US tariffs FX traders are turning more bearish on the pound, especially since both GBP/USD and GBP/EUR have broken below their 200-day moving averages. Sterling will require a rebound in global risk appetite in order to claw back recent losses.
*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
Written by Steven Dooley, Head of Market Insights, and Shier Lee Lim, Lead FX and Macro Strategist
Asia tumbles; USD/SGD and USD/CNH at highs
The Australian and NZ dollars remained some of the hardest hit currencies on Monday after the global sell-off continued through Asia.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 7.8% while the China’s Shanghai Composite lost 6.6%.
Overnight, however, US markets saw the selling pause, with the S&P 500 down only 0.2% and the tech-focused Nasdaq up 0.1%.
The US dollar was mostly higher as Asian markets sold off.
The USD/SGD gained 0.4% with the pair at two-month highs.
The USD/CNH jumped 0.7% as the pair reached three-month highs.
US tariffs to remain despite sell-off
US Treasury Secretary Bessent dismissed concerns over a potential recession caused by tariffs, stating there’s no market justification for pricing in such fears.
He emphasized that other nations must act credibly, as some have historically been “bad actors.”
Despite recent market volatility, Bessent remains confident, noting over 50 nations have approached the US for negotiations.
Meanwhile, Commerce Secretary Lutnick confirmed the April 9 tariff deadline remains unchanged, and NEC Director Hassett downplayed potential consumer and labor market impacts.
Global risk sentiment indeed has deteriorated sharply.
Antipodean risk proxy currencies, like AUDUSD and NZDUSD have been hit hard. AUD/USD and NZD/USD are both now at five-year lows, at strong key psychological support of 0.6000 and 0.5585.
Japan labor data and BoJ outlook
Japan’s February labor cash earnings rose 3.1% YoY, slightly beating forecasts, but real earnings declined 1.2%.
Despite this, the market has dismissed the likelihood of BoJ rate hikes in the near term.
The latest US tariffs are expected to weigh on Japan’s GDP, leaving only one expected rate hike by mid-2027.
Meanwhile, over the weekend, Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba stated his intention to draft a comprehensive agreement as the foundation for tariff talks with US President Trump. Trump and Ishiba spoke over the last 24 hours.
USD/JPY bounced off from its six-month lows, with next key resistance levels at 50-day MA of 150.21 and 200-day MA of 151.26.
USD stronger in Asia
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
Recently, markets have been adjusting to concerns over slowing economic growth in the U.S. However, last Wednesday’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs introduced a new layer of uncertainty, forcing a shift towards pricing in the risk of a potential recession. Global markets have turned red, reflecting mounting fears of a global economic slowdown. This is particularly concerning for Canada. Although Canada has so far avoided retaliatory tariffs, key industries remain heavily impacted by existing U.S. tariffs. To make matters worse, last Friday’s labor market report presented a bleak outlook for Canada’s economy.
In March 2025, Canada’s labor market took a sharp downturn, shedding 33Kjobs—a stark contrast to the anticipated gain of 10K. This drop follows February’s marginal increase of just 1K jobs, with the recent losses concentrated among full-time workers, older men, and private-sector employees. These shifts signal troubling changes in employment trends.
The unemployment rate edged up to 6.7% in March, an increase of 0.1 percentage points, while long-term unemployment (defined as being jobless for 27 weeks or more) also began to rise. This indicates potential structural issues within the labor market that could pose longer-term challenges to economic stability.
Canada’s trade-reliant provinces, particularly Ontario and Alberta, are facing additional strain due to the U.S.’s new global tariffs announced earlier this week. These regions, heavily dependent on cross-border trade, are already seeing negative market reactions. Reports of potential layoffs at major auto plants have only added to investor concerns over the fragility of Canada-U.S. trade relations.
Despite these headwinds, there are a few glimmers of hope. Hours worked saw a slight rebound in March, rising by 0.4% after February’s 1.3% decline caused by severe snowstorms. On a quarterly basis, hours worked grew at an annualized rate of 2%, suggesting that first-quarter GDP growth may still show resilience. However, wage growth has started to cool, with average hourly wages rising 3.6% year-over-year in March—down from February’s 3.8%. This deceleration reflects broader cooling in the labor market.
The job losses were most pronounced in wholesale and retail trade (-29K jobs), information, culture, and recreation (-20K jobs), and agriculture (-9K jobs). On the other hand, some sectors saw gains, including other services (+12K jobs) and utilities (+4Kjobs). Regionally, Ontario (-28K jobs) and Alberta (-15K jobs) led the employment declines, while Saskatchewan showed unexpected strength with a gain of 7,000 jobs. Employment levels across other provinces remained steady.
A week where decades happen
George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist
The aftershocks of President Trump’s onslaught of tariff announcements are still reverberating through the financial markets. Equities suffered their worst sell off since the pandemic with the S&P500 down 9% last week and the Nasdaq now in a bear market since it’s down over 20% from its peak. US stock futures point to a further 5% drop today. Oil prices have also plunged and credit spreads have widened sharply, suggesting a revival in recession risk. Polymarket odds of a US recession this year have jumped to 60% but the US administration is digging in to say tariffs will start on schedule, while China has retaliated with 34% tariffs on the world’s largest economy.
When it comes to the US dollar, at first glance, it’s knee jerk weakness seemed paradoxical, as tariffs are typically dollar-positive. However, three key factors drove the dollar lower. First, the implementation of tariff policies exacerbated concerns about US growth. Second, fears of retaliation from other countries in an escalating trade war weighed heavily on sentiment. Third, fiscal policy expectations shifted towards a more contractionary stance in the US, further dampening confidence. The dollar index fell over 2% last week, marking its worst performance since October, whilst yields declined sharply, with the 10-year yield hitting its lowest level since October, reflecting a flight to safety and money markets increasing bets on Fed rate cuts.
The key risk factor to a continuation of the dollar depreciation scenario would be a bout of global risk aversion, which would likely see a global flight to safety into the dollar. Historically, instances of the US entering a recession while the rest of the world remains unaffected have been extremely rare, if they exist at all. While dollar negativity is now consensus, its safe-haven appeal may limit further downside against cyclical currencies.
Looking ahead at the data docket this week, trade policies and any retaliation from other governments will remain the focus for markets but there are also notable data releases. Investors will focus on headline and core CPI and PPI inflation data and the University of Michigan inflation expectations. However, these will be pre-tariff data and are therefore arguably obsolete.
A tug of war for the euro
George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist
The week ahead for Europe and the euro is set to be dominated by the fallout from the US’s aggressive 20% tariff on EU exports, which threatens to push the region’s economy into recession. The euro, currently hovering around $1.10 against the dollar having reached over $1.11 last week, reflects a tug-of-war between the negative impact of tariffs and the potential fiscal offsets being discussed across the EU.
Germany’s fiscal stimulus package, including a €500 billion infrastructure fund, offers some hope for economic resilience. The prospect of further fiscal support, such as Spain’s proposal for an EU tariff fund, could provide a coordinated response to mitigate the impact of US tariffs. However, the EU’s ability to relax its state aid framework on a country-by-country basis remains uncertain, and a unified approach may take time to materialize. If successful, these measures could eliminate tariff premia and push EUR/USD toward $1.12.
However, another factor to watch is the stability of the Chinese yuan as downside pressures on the renminbi could spill over to the euro, adding further complexity to its trajectory. Investors will also be closely monitoring developments in EU-US trade negotiations and any retaliatory measures from Europe, which could shape the euro’s outlook in the coming weeks.
Beyond the knee-jerk response
George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist
The intensifying trade conflict between the US and China triggered a sharp selloff in global markets on Friday, causing GBP/USD to drop by 1.99%, sliding from $1.32 the day before to below $1.29. Despite the ongoing equity market downturn, the pair’s losses might not hold though, as shifts in the relative growth outlook challenge the dollar’s “exceptional” positioning, which has been a key driver of its strong valuation over the last few years.
Meanwhile, GBP/EUR dropped 1.5% last week, hitting its lowest level in over six months as global equity markets plunged. Adding to the pound’s struggles against the common currency is the fact that the tariff announcement has prompted a dramatic shift in rate expectations. Markets now anticipate an additional 40 basis points of Bank of England rate cuts by March 2026, partly eroding sterling’s yield advantage. That said, GBP/EUR is in oversold territory according to the daily relative strength index and could bounce from here – the 200-week moving average at €1.1707 should be a major support.
Moreover, the UK remains less exposed to President Trump’s trade war, partly due to the relatively lower tariff rate it faces compared to other nations, including the EU. US exports contribute 2.2% to UK GDP, notably lower than the EU’s 3% average and Germany’s 4%. However, the broader economic slowdown in both the US and Europe poses significant risks to the UK economy.
On the economic front, February’s monthly GDP is expected to show a modest rebound after January’s weak performance. Despite the tariff concerns, the UK government’s significant increase in fiscal spending this year should help sustain growth. However, weaker activity in the US and eurozone remains a looming threat for later in 2025 and into 2026. The pound’s trajectory will depend on how the UK manages these external pressures while maintaining economic stability. For now, it remains under pressure versus the yen and swissy predominantly, whilst its scaling fresh multi-year highs against commodity-linked peers like the Aussie dollar.
*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
The aftershocks of President Trump’s onslaught of tariff announcements are still reverberating through the financial markets. Equities suffered their worst sell off since the pandemic with the S&P500 down 9% last week and the Nasdaq now in a bear market since it’s down over 20% from its peak. US stock futures point to a further 5% drop today. Oil prices have also plunged and credit spreads have widened sharply, suggesting a revival in recession risk. Polymarket odds of a US recession this year have jumped to 60% but the US administration is digging in to say tariffs will start on schedule, while China has retaliated with 34% tariffs on the world’s largest economy.
When it comes to the US dollar, at first glance, it’s knee jerk weakness seemed paradoxical, as tariffs are typically dollar-positive. However, three key factors drove the dollar lower. First, the implementation of tariff policies exacerbated concerns about US growth. Second, fears of retaliation from other countries in an escalating trade war weighed heavily on sentiment. Third, fiscal policy expectations shifted towards a more contractionary stance, further dampening confidence. The dollar index fell over 2% last week, marking its worst performance since October, whilst yields declined sharply, with the 10-year yield hitting its lowest level since October, reflecting a flight to safety and money markets increasing bets on Fed rate cuts.
The key risk factor to a continuation of the dollar depreciation scenario would be a bout of global risk aversion, which would likely see a global flight to safety into the dollar. Historically, instances of the US entering a recession while the rest of the world remains unaffected have been extremely rare, if they exist at all. While dollar negativity is now consensus, its safe-haven appeal may limit further downside against cyclical currencies.
Looking ahead at the data docket this week, trade policies and any retaliation from other governments will remain the focus for markets in the coming week but there are also notable data releases. Investors will focus on headline and core CPI and PPI inflation data and the University of Michigan inflation expectations. However, these will be pre-tariff data and therefore largely obsolete.
A tug of war for the euro
George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist
The week ahead for Europe and the euro is set to be dominated by the fallout from the US’s aggressive 20% tariff on EU exports, which threatens to push the region’s economy into recession. The euro, currently hovering around $1.09 against the dollar having reached over $1.11 last week, reflects a tug-of-war between the negative impact of tariffs and the potential fiscal offsets being discussed across the EU.
Germany’s fiscal stimulus package, including a €500 billion infrastructure fund, offers some hope for economic resilience. The prospect of further fiscal support, such as Spain’s proposal for an EU tariff fund, could provide a coordinated response to mitigate the impact of US tariffs. However, the EU’s ability to relax its state aid framework on a country-by-country basis remains uncertain, and a unified approach may take time to materialize. If successful, these measures could eliminate tariff premia and push EUR/USD toward $1.12.
However, another factor to watch is the stability of the Chinese yuan as downside pressures on the renminbi could spill over to the euro, adding further complexity to its trajectory. Investors will also be closely monitoring developments in EU-US trade negotiations and any retaliatory measures from Europe, which could shape the euro’s outlook in the coming weeks.
Beyond the knee-jerk response
George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist
The intensifying trade conflict between the US and China triggered a sharp selloff in global markets, causing GBP/USD to drop by 1.99% on Friday, sliding from $1.32 to below $1.29. Despite the ongoing equity market downturn, the pair’s losses might not hold, as shifts in the relative growth outlook challenge the dollar’s “exceptional” positioning, which has been a key driver of its strong valuation.
Meanwhile, GBP/EUR dropped 1.5% last week, hitting its lowest level in over six months as global equity markets plunged. Adding to the pound’s struggles against the common currency is the fact that the tariff announcement has prompted a dramatic shift in rate expectations. Markets now anticipate an additional 40 basis points of Bank of England rate cuts by March 2026, eroding sterling’s yield advantage. That said, GBP/EUR is in oversold territory according to the daily relative strength index and could bounce from here – the 200-week moving average at €1.1707 should be a major support.
Moreover, the UK remains less exposed to President Trump’s trade war, partly due to the relatively lower tariff rate it faces compared to other nations, including the EU. US exports contribute 2.2% to UK GDP, notably lower than the EU’s 3% average and Germany’s 4%. However, the broader economic slowdown in both the US and Europe poses significant risks to the UK economy.
On the economic front, February’s monthly GDP is expected to show a modest rebound after January’s weak performance. Despite the tariff concerns, the UK government’s significant increase in fiscal spending this year should help sustain growth. However, weaker activity in the US and eurozone remains a looming threat for later in 2025 and into 2026. The pound’s trajectory will depend on how the UK manages these external pressures while maintaining economic stability.
*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
Written by Steven Dooley, Head of Market Insights, and Shier Lee Lim, Lead FX and Macro Strategist
China retaliation drives global markets lower
Key global markets extended heavy losses on Friday with the US’s S&P 500 down 5.5% on Friday bringing its two-day loss to 10.6%
The major leg lower on Friday night was driven by retaliation from China as the world’s second-largest economy announced 34% tariffs on the world’s largest economy late on Friday.
Away from sharemarkets, other markets were also shaken. The US ten-year bond yield fell from 4.13% to 3.99% while crude oil is down 16% since the US’s tariff announcement on Wednesday (US time).
Importantly, US administration leaders, notably US treasury secretary Scott Bessent, said on the weekend that they were willing to look through the impact on markets, meaning that any market volatility might not force a shift in policy from the Trump administration.
In FX markets, the Australian dollar was the hardest hit, down 4.6% on Friday after trading higher on Thursday, and briefly trading below 0.6000 for the first time since April 2020.
The NZD/USD fell 3.4% but remains just above key support at 0.5515.
Reciprocal tariffs hit Asia’s risk assets
US retaliatory tariffs had a significant negative impact on Asia’s risk assets. Given that Asian exporters are disproportionately affected by this tariff shock, the region’s macroeconomic effects will surely be profound.
The Chinese yuan is the big issue, and FX would be the worst hit by this terms of trade shock in the medium term.
Given the extra economic challenges facing China, further policy assistance is probably needed. This support might take the shape of RRR and policy rate cuts of 30–40 basis points. Even more powerful disinflationary dynamics will propel rates markets in Asia, continuing the downward trend in regional bond yields.
In Asia, the USD/SGD jumped back to one-month highs.
The USD/CNH ended Friday approaching the 7.3000 level and near the highest closing level in a month.
SGD/CNH dropped from the six-month highs seen on Thursday morning. The AUD/CNH fell to the lowest level in five years.
Busy week for data across major economies
The economic calendar for the first full week of April features crucial inflation readings from multiple regions.
US CPI data arrives on Thursday with core inflation expected at 2.6% YoY, while China releases both PPI and CPI figures the same day.
Additionally, Germany will publish its March CPI readings on Friday. These inflation metrics will be closely monitored for signals about the monetary policy trajectory of major central banks.
Industrial production data will be released across several economies, beginning with Germany on Monday, followed by UK on Friday. These figures will provide valuable insights into the global manufacturing sector’s health as economies continue to navigate challenging conditions.
On Wednesday, the RBNZ will announce its official cash rate decision, with expectations centered around 3.5%. Thursday brings the release of FOMC meeting minutes from the March 19 meeting, offering market participants further clarity on the Fed’s thinking.
This follows recent mixed US economic signals and will be scrutinized for indications about the potential timing and pace of rate adjustments.
The UK releases its monthly GDP figures on Friday, providing an updated view on economic growth. Japan’s BoP Current Account Balance on Tuesday will draw attention from traders focused on external balances and currency valuation metrics. The US Federal Budget Balance report on Friday will also be closely watched amid ongoing fiscal discussions.
Aussie hit hardest with almost 5.0% fall on Friday
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
When markets get shaky, investors usually turn to gold for stability, and in FX, the US dollar has long been considered the go-to safe haven. Other safe havens include the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. But following April 2nd, market behavior has taken an unexpected turn, marked by widespread bearish sentiment toward the greenback—a reaction that few could have predicted.
Leading up to April 2nd, it was widely assumed that tariffs would boost the dollar. Given its reputation as a safe-haven currency and by the direct impact tariffs were expected to have on the US economy through higher prices, many anticipated a stronger dollar. However, this safe-haven status seems to have been undermined by a lack of confidence in US policymaking. To make matters worse, the weaker dollar won’t soften the blow of tariffs; instead, it’d exacerbate inflationary pressures by driving up the cost of imported goods.
So, who’s gaining from the dollar’s surprising weakness? The Canadian dollar has seen an uptick, reaching its highest value since December. Wednesday’s tariff announcements triggered a US dollar sell-off, offering some support to the CAD. That said, don’t call it a comeback yet. Canada remains under pressure from levies on steel, aluminum, and auto tariffs, leaving the CAD lagging behind other G-10 currencies since the tariff announcement. If these tariffs persist, they could weigh heavily on the CAD over the medium to long term, given Canada’s strong trade ties with the US. After reciprocal tariffs announcement, the Loonie traded as low as 1.4028, approaching its 200-day SMA, but has rebounded as high as 1.4209.
In the midst of all this, we may be approaching the peak of policy uncertainty. While tariffs are likely here to stay for a while, many investors remain hopeful, viewing them as both structural components of US trade policy and tools for negotiation, with their effects on growth and inflation expected to be more of a one-time shock than an ongoing issue. Nevertheless, equity markets continue to struggle with the fallout from tariff-related disruptions, reflecting widespread investor unease and heightened market volatility. The VIX has reached a new 2025 high of 41, signaling extreme and alarming fear levels not observed since last summer’s growth scare, which was triggered by the unwind of the Japanese yen carry trade.
Meanwhile, attention is now shifting to the upcoming non-farm payrolls report, which is expected to show a slowdown in job creation—140,000 jobs added in March compared to 151,000 in February. A weaker-than-anticipated report could deepen concerns, further dampening sentiment not only on Wall Street but across global markets.
Worst day for US stocks and dollar in years
George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist
Equities, treasury yields, the US dollar and oil have all felt the brunt of the tariff announcement, as investors bet that Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs would result in pain for the US economy and the global trade system.
US equities came under intense pressure, with benchmarks suffering their biggest daily drops since the height of the Covid pandemic in 2020. The US stock market is now down over 10% since Trump took office – the worst 10-week start under a new president in 24 years. Oil plunged 6% due to fears a global trade war could slow economic growth and reduce fuel demand, hurt further when OPEC+ countries unexpectedly announced they would increase oil production more than planned.
The dollar index dropped over 2%, its worst day in almost ten years and to its lowest level in six months. The dollar is being sold against the big, liquid defensive currencies of the Japanese yen and Swiss franc as well as the euro and pound. This will aggravate the impact of the levies on US consumers. The currency will be one key price to watch to gauge the extent of economic discomfort the US can withstand before it potentially decides to soften its approach.
For now, the market is repricing the US economy and the dollar the most, but the path ahead is neither linear nor obvious. One reason being that the global policy response will determine whether the dollar ends up weakening further or rebounding eventually. Europe, in particular, has argued that a combination of trade, tariff and subsidy measures may be an appropriate response. This could offset the tariff effects in a growth-enhancing way, and support the euro, hence EUR/USD’s over 2% rally on Thursday. But as compelling as the sell-US narrative appears based on the price action of the past month and week, it might be unwise to chase beyond the near term. indeed, a US recession will reverberate globally, and could support demand for the world’s reserve currency.
In response to the tariff news and rising recession risks, traders increased their bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts. Three to four quarter-point reductions are priced for this year, with the first cut likely in June. On the data front, the ISM services PMI fell sharply to 50.8 in March from 53.5 in February. The reading pointed to the softest expansion in the services sector since June last year. The Challenger report showed that US companies cut the most jobs since 2020 in March, largely due to the DOGE layoffs. The jobs report today will provide further clarity on the labour market performance.
It’s the euro that’s been “liberated”
George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist
The euro jumped more than 2% versus the dollar yesterday and sits above $1.11 today, its highest level since early October 2024. It was EUR/USD’s biggest daily jump in about five years, benefiting from general dollar weakness as traders react to the latest batch of tariffs announced by President Trump.
The move puts it at odds with the move in Germany’s front-end bonds, though overnight indexed swaps assign some 70% chance of an ECB rate reduction on April 17 down from 90% earlier this week. Germany’s two-year yields are down 11 basis points, and are likely to stay lower as the EU works out its response to US tariffs.
The dynamics in the currency market highlight that tariffs ultimately fall on domestic consumers and businesses, with the economic damage to the US likely surpassing the impact on the EU from reduced exports. Although a global trade war would typically weigh on the euro, the vulnerabilities in the US economy are currently the driving force for EUR/USD, but for how long?
A steep decline in US equities, alongside further drops in US yields, continues to erode the narrative of US economic exceptionalism. A move towards $1.12 cannot be ruled out assuming the market prices European retaliatory measures, including subsidies, that blunt the tariff effects, meaning EUR/USD converges to real rate differentials.
Pound (and penguins) stand proud
George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist
The British pound’s tariff resilience was in evidence in the UK’s lower tariff rate, which underpins the potential for sterling to outperform versus peers. GBP/USD accelerated higher once breaking above the $1.30 barrier to peek above $1.32 briefly and clock one of its biggest daily gains in over a year. But against the euro, the pound dropped 1% because EUR/USD rose over 2% on the day.
In terms of the UK, the good news is that it’s been slapped with the lowest possible tariff of 10%. This is mainly because the UK doesn’t export more goods to the US than it imports. Bizarrely, the president also imposed 10% tariffs on dozens of tiny territories including Heard and McDonald Islands, that are inhabited only by penguins and seals. It seems nowhere on Earth is safe. Still, the 10% on the UK looks better in relative terms – which is one reason why the pound surged over 1% higher yesterday. Moreover, business groups have strongly welcomed the UK government’s decision not to announce immediate retaliatory tariffs against the US, but to instead keep talking about a trade deal that might lead to tariffs being removed. Retaliation will only add to supply chain disruption, slow down investment, and stoke volatility in prices.
Meanwhile, traders added to bets on further monetary easing globally, including in the UK, where money markets now imply over 60 basis points of Bank of England (BoE) interest-rate cuts over the remainder of 2025 from around 53 basis points Wednesday. Separately, the BoE’s Decision Maker Panel survey for year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 3.4% in March from 3.1% in February.
Equities, oil, dollar, yields – down down downdown
*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
Global markets were meant to be prepared for the US tariff announcement on 2 April but the scale of the policy shift exceeded most of the worst-case scenarios that economists had been modelling for months.
US sharemarkets led the losses. The S&P 500 fell 4.8% on the Thursday after the announcement in its worst one-day fall since June 2020. The tech-focused Nasdaq lost 6.0% in its biggest one-day loss since March 2020.
The major company losses on the day illustrated the market’s fears. Nike fell 14% on worries about the impact of a 46% tariff on Vietnamese imports like sneakers. Apple lost 10% as Chinese imports like iPhones might now face a 54% tariff.
FX markets shuddered. The US dollar index fell 1.7% in the 24 hours after the announcement as markets worried about the impact on the US economy.
The euro continued to reverse the trend seen last year when it underperformed during periods of tariff stress. Instead, the euro is now the greatest beneficiary from tariff worries, and post the tariff announcement the EUR/USD saw its biggest one-day gain since 2015.
The British pound also gained strongly, with GBP/USD jumping to six-month highs. The Canadian dollar was stronger as it hit four-month highs versus the USD but the Aussie weakened as Chinese growth worries weighed.
Global Macro Trump opts for shock therapy
Reciprocal tariffs. Trump has implemented 10% blanket tariffs on all imports, starting April 5, extending them further for China (54%), the EU (20%), Japan (24) and UK (10%), with charges largely based on trade surpluses with the US. He also signaled upcoming duties on pharmaceuticals, semiconductor chips, lumber, and copper. Combined with prior import taxes on autos, and goods from Canada, Mexico, and China, these measures will raise the average US tariff rate to 23%—a dramatic increase from 2.3% in 2024. This is the highest average US tariff rate in more than a century, and surpasses the infamous 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariffs, which arguably worsened the Great Depression.
Risk-off sentiment. Equity markets are in extreme fear levels. The VIX, or the fear index, is back above 25, showing extreme fear as investors weigh the implications of higher near-term inflation and slower medium-term growth. In a classic flight to safety, gold rose to new all-time highs and yields fell on Treasuries of all maturities. However, the dollar is being sold against major defensive currencies like the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and the euro.
Recession risks. These moves are a major shock to the world economy and close to the worst-case scenario Trump had threatened on his campaign trail. It will prompt retaliatory measures from trading partners and although there may be room for negotiation, high tariffs and lingering uncertainty raise recession risks. Tariffs will boost inflation in the short-term, weighing on real disposable income and cutting into spending; financial market conditions will likely tighten, and the risk of equity price declines could hit consumer spending via the wealth effect; and trade policy uncertainty will remain elevated, which is suffocating for business investment. Polymarket odds of a 2025 recession in the U.S. has risen to 50%.
US dollar sell-off. The dollar’s traditional safe-haven status was overshadowed by worries about US growth. The buck buckled by almost 2% after Liberation Day – its worst day in years.
FX Views Options volumes reach record high
USD Worst day in three years.
FX options volumes reached a record high in the wake of Trump’s tariff bonanza as the dollar selloff meant traders increased their exposure across the board. A steep decline in US equities, alongside further drops in US yields, continues to erode the narrative of US economic exceptionalism. The dollar index hit its lowest level in six months and dropped over 2% at one point, which would’ve been its worst day in ten years. The dollar was sold heavily against the big, liquid defensive currencies of the Japanese yen and Swiss franc as well as the euro and pound. The currency will be one key price to watch to gauge the extent of economic discomfort the US can withstand before it potentially decides to soften its approach. For now, the market is repricing the US economy and the dollar the most, but the path ahead is neither linear nor obvious. As compelling as the sell-US narrative appears based on the price action of the past month and week, it might be unwise to chase beyond the near term. One reason being that the global policy response will determine whether the dollar ends up weakening further or rebounding eventually.
EUR A surprise beneficiary.
The euro jumped more than 2% versus the dollar yesterday and rose above $1.11, its highest level since early October 2024.It was EUR/USD’s biggest daily jump in about five years. Although a global trade war would typically weigh on the euro, the vulnerabilities in the US economy are currently the driving force for EUR/USD. The dynamics in the currency market highlight that tariffs ultimately fall on domestic consumers and businesses, with the economic damage to the US likely surpassing the impact on the EU from reduced exports. A move towards $1.12 cannot be ruled out assuming the market prices European retaliatory measures, including subsidies, that blunt the tariff effects, meaning EUR/USD converges to real rate differentials.
GBP Brexit dividend at last. As we’ve been highlighting for several weeks, the pound continues to act as a safe haven tariff play since Britain has a broadly balanced trade relationship with the US. Although the UK was still hit with 10% tariffs, that is far more lenient than what other nations are facing, such as the EU’s 20%. GBP/USD accelerated higher once breaking above the $1.30 barrier and peeked above $1.32 briefly to clock one of its biggest daily gains in over a year. But against the euro, the pound dropped 1% to 4-month lows because EUR/USD rose so much. One and three-month risk reversals are the least bearish GBP since 2020, both sitting well beyond their 10-year averages. There’s even been a surge in demand for protection against upside tail risks for GBP/USD in the short-term. This is evidenced by 10-delta risk reversals, which have a 10% probability of being at the money, also climbing to their highest since 2020. However, the pair pulled back under $1.30 by the end of the week as traders booked profits ahead of the weekend.
CHF Soaking up flight to safety. The liquid defensive currency of the Swiss franc was in full view this week. A surge in demand for the franc took place after Trump’s tariff rollout. USD/CHF dropped 2.5% in one day, which is four standard deviations away from its average daily % change. The swissy reached its highest level since November 2024 as investors flocked to safe-haven assets in response to Trump’s more aggressive-than-anticipated tariffs on major trading partners. As part of his “reciprocal tariffs” strategy, Trump imposed a 31% levy on Swiss imports, with the US accounting for a substantial 19% of Swiss exports. On the domestic data front, the annual inflation rate in Switzerland stood at 0.3% in March, unchanged from February’s near four-year low, slightly below market forecasts of 0.5%. The new tariffs are likely to weigh on both economic growth and inflation in Switzerland, increasing the chances that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will reduce its policy rate to zero in June.
Week ahead Data-rich week across major economies
Inflation data takes center stage. The economic calendar for the first full week of April features crucial inflation readings from multiple regions. US CPI data arrives on Thursday with core inflation expected at 2.6% y/y, while China releases both PPI and CPI figures the same day. Additionally, Germany will publish its March CPI readings on Friday. These inflation metrics will be key with central banks growing more concerned about inflation.
Manufacturing and industrial output in focus. Industrial production data will be released across several economies, beginning with Germany on Monday, followed by UK on Friday. These figures will provide valuable insights into the global manufacturing sector’s health as economies continue to navigate challenging conditions.
Central bank watch Wednesday brings the release of FOMC meeting minutes from the March 19 meeting, offering market participants further clarity on the Fed’s thinking. This follows recent mixed US economic signals and will be scrutinized for indications about the potential timing and pace of rate adjustments. Additionally, the RBNZ will announce its official cash rate decision, with expectations looking for a cut to 3.5%.
GDP and trade balance readings. The UK releases its monthly GDP figures on Friday, providing an updated view on economic growth. Japan’s BoP Current Account Balance on Tuesday will draw attention from traders focused on external balances and currency valuation metrics. The US Federal Budget Balance report on Thursday will also be closely watched amid ongoing fiscal discussions.
Consumer and business sentiment indicators. Several confidence measures are scheduled throughout the week, including Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence and NAB Business Confidence on Tuesday. Friday brings the University of Michigan Sentiment preliminary reading for April, expected at 55.0. These sentiment indicators often provide forward-looking insights into consumer spending and business investment intentions.
CNY China’s manufacturing gains meet trade balance challenges. China’s March Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2, supported by stronger foreign demand and robust export orders. Employment climbed for the first time in 19 months, while input prices declined, reflecting easing cost pressures. With the tariff rate rising to almost 54% with the US trade tariffs, China is in the crosshairs. The USD/CNH first spike as a result of worries about possible capital outflows and China’s export-driven economy. However, a pullback resulted from USD weakening overall, which was fuelled by lowered prospects for US growth and Fed easing, and USD/CNH now near two-week lows. Resistance levels for USD/CNH at 7.2832 and 7.2995 are expected to cap upside. Breaking above the Cloud would weaken the negative outlook, risking a move toward 7.3682. However, as long as the pair trades below these levels, downside risks persist, targeting 7.2000. Key economic releases, including CPI, PPI, exports, imports, and trade balance, will be pivotal in determining the next move for USD/CNH.
JPY BoJ inflation focus and household spending shape Yen’s path. Japanese household spending fell modestly by 0.5% y/y in February, outperforming expectations of a 1.7% dip. Seasonally adjusted spending rebounded 3.5% m/m, suggesting resilience in domestic demand. Meanwhile, the BoJ’s Deputy Governor Uchida emphasized inflation as the primary driver for future policy shifts, keeping markets focused on wage and consumption trends to gauge the timing of rate hikes. USD/JPY is now at six-month lows. On the weekly chart, USD/JPY remains below the Ichimoku Cloud (resistance at 150.79), supporting a negative bias. The pair is also forming a head-and-shoulders topping pattern, targeting 141.75. A break above 151.41 would weaken the negative case, exposing 153.74 as the next resistance level. Upcoming data on foreign reserves, current account, household confidence, and PPI will be key in shaping USD/JPY’s outlook.
CADCanada dodges tariff fallout. The USD/CAD has dropped to its lowest level since December, yet it lagged all G-10 currencies. This movement occurred in response to broad-based USD weakness triggered by the market’s reaction to Wednesday’s U.S. tariff announcement. While Canada managed to avoid President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, levies on steel and aluminum remain in effect, and auto tariffs were implemented on Thursday. These tariffs could limit the Canadian dollar recovery in the medium to long term, given Canada’s heavy reliance on the U.S. Following the tariff announcement, USD/CAD climbed to 1.431. However, as risk-off sentiment eased and bearish momentum for the US dollar gained traction, the CAD broke a three-month trading range with a 280-pip decline, reaching 1.403 and approaching the key psychological support at 1.40, aligned with the 200-day SMA.
AUD RBA’s repo rate shift faces consumer sentiment test. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced changes to its repo rate operations, raising the price of new repos by 5-10bps above the cash rate target. Although this policy shift aims to incentivize market participants to recycle reserves, it does not signal a shift in the RBA’s monetary policy stance. AUD/USD is now at one-month low. AUD/USD declined from 0.6285, breaking below the Ichimoku Cloud on March 31, increasing the risk of invalidating the positive cup-and-handle formation. Downward momentum has strengthened, although the sharp decline also raises the potential of a corrective rebound. A sustained move below 0.6249 would weaken positive sentiment, targeting 0.6131. Conversely, a recovery above the Cloud could signal a move toward 0.6409. Key drivers to watch include Westpac consumer sentiment and NAB business confidence. These indicators will shape expectations for the RBA’s policy trajectory and AUDUSD’s near-term direction.
MXN Reciprocal tariffs avoided. The Mexican peso surged 1.7% against the dollar on Thursday, marking its largest intraday gain in a month, and reaching its highest level against the US since November last year, following President Donald Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariff plans. For now, Mexico and Canada are exempt from these new levies, though they remain entangled in a separate, intermittent tariff dispute with the U.S. Despite avoiding the latest round of tariffs, existing duties persist, leaving the Peso exposed—especially due to Mexico’s reliance on auto and steel exports to the U.S. The peso is currently targeting the 200-day SMA at 19.8 as a crucial support level, benefiting from generalized US dollar weakness, which has eased some pressure on the USD/MXN pair. Banxico’s upcoming monetary policy meeting on May 15 is anticipated to bring a 50-basis-point rate cut. This move is expected to erode carry in the short term and introduce upward pressure on the peso in the medium term. Meanwhile, the easing of tariff-premia reflects the absence of an escalating regional trade war narrative.
*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
