There’s a crazy thing about innovation.
Tech revolutions often happen at a snail’s pace at first…
And then, one day you wake up and the world looks completely different from what you remember.
Consider electricity.
For thousands of years, people saw this “magical” force streak across the sky as lightning. But no one knew what to do with it.
Progress was slow at first. It took people until the 1600s to start experimenting with static electricity. And it wasn’t until 1871 that the phenomenon became commercially useful with the invention of the first electric motor.
It would take another 76 years for transistors to unlock electricity’s full potential.
But since then, the humble transistor has changed the world. The computers enabled by this technology have helped us fly people to the moon… communicated with satellites millions of miles away… even mapped the number “pi” to 105 trillion digits.
And it’s all thanks to understanding how to tame this “magical” power of electricity to power the millions of logic gates that build the modern microprocessor.
Quantum computing is on the same path.
In yesterday’s Market 360, we discussed the ins and outs of quantum computing – and why it represents the next frontier of the AI Revolution.
Investors need to prepare for what’s coming. That’s why I’m hosting The Next 50X NVIDIA Call summit on Thursday, March 13, at 1 p.m. ET.
You can go here to save your spot now.
After you’ve saved your spot, be sure to send me your biggest questions about quantum computing. I’ve already received a number of great questions, so keep them coming! You can reach us at [email protected] and use the subject line “Quantum computing questions” so that I can be sure to see each one of them.
Make no mistake. This could create a transformational wealth opportunity for investors – like the early stages of the AI Revolution did with NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA). As we’ll discuss today, Big Tech knows this, too – which is why they’re scrambling to prepare.
Quantum’s Transistor Moment
In 1955, physicist Louis Essen switched on the world’s first working quantum machine, the cesium atomic clock.
By blasting finely tuned microwaves at a stream of cesium atoms, Essen and his team forced these atoms into a “superposition” state, where they were in more than one energy state at once… a “quantum state” where they are both grounded and excited. This was perhaps the “electric motor” moment of quantum mechanics – another “magical” force first described by German physicist Max Planck in 1900.
Quantum’s “transistor moment” is now at our doorstep.
Indeed, I’m sure you’ve noticed that three top Big Tech companies have made a big deal about their new “quantum chips” in the past couple of months:
But which of these companies will actually create the first working “quantum transistor”? And where should investors be putting their money?
In this issue, I’m going to take a closer look at all three of these new quantum chips. We’ll do a little comparing and contrasting in order to figure all that out.
Some of this is going to get pretty technical… but we need to know this stuff to help guide our quantum investing decisions today.
Plus, once you finish reading this, you’re going to have a pretty good idea of why I’m making a certain quantum recommendation… one that could even beat these three heavyweights at their own game.
But first, here’s what I can tell you about these three quantum chips…
The Workhorse of Quantum: Alphabet
In 1999, a team of Japanese researchers developed the “charge qubit,” a relatively simple circuit that paired a capacitor and inductor to create a quantum-like oscillation. This allowed scientists to create quantum behavior on a circuit board.
A more advanced version came several years later, in 2007, after Yale researchers developed the “transmon qubit.” This new circuit used a complex series of capacitors to protect qubits from outside charge noise. This allowed qubits to be stored for longer periods and reduced error rates to roughly 1 in 500. Below is a simplified circuit diagram of this innovation.
Transmon qubits have since become the “workhorse” of quantum chips. They are considered the most reliable way of creating quantum states in a controlled environment and are preferred to older methods that use physical atoms like an atomic clock does. The challenge is now to bring their 1-in-500 error rates low enough for transmons to do calculations.
The leader of this race is Google.
In 2019, the search giant made a splash after launching its Sycamore quantum chip – the first to pile 54 of these transmon qubits onto a single board. And on December 9, the firm followed up with Willow, a chip with 105 qubits that can maintain coherence for as long as 68 microseconds – a 5X improvement over previous generations.
Google’s Willow chip isn’t perfect yet either. The 105-qubit chip can only handle around three errors at a time, which is still too low for practical applications. In addition, experts estimate that millions of qubits will be needed to tackle complex, real-world problems like encryption breaking; packing that many qubits together is a logistical challenge, since Willow’s superconducting qubits need near-zero temperatures to operate.
Still, Google’s 105 transmon qubit chip represents one of the greatest advances yet in quantum. They’re beginning to tackle the scaling issue of error rates, and it’s perhaps only a matter of time for larger chips to emerge.
The Experimental Play: Amazon
Amazon made its own splash with the Ocelot quantum chip on February 27. This experimental model uses five “cat qubits,” a newer qubit technology that stores quantum information inside a microwave cavity, rather than on superconducting circuit as a transmon qubit does.
Its feline name comes from the famous Schrödinger cat, a thought experiment suggesting a cat in a box can be both dead and alive until someone looks inside. Cat qubits store information in a similarly confusing quantum state.
I must emphasize that cat qubits are still experimental… and they’re not guaranteed to work at larger scales.
But their potential is enormous.
That’s because cat qubits have far lower error rates than traditional qubits. Bit-flip errors (where a qubit accidentally flips from “0” to “1”) can be as low as 1 in 100,000. Think of bit-flip errors as flipping a coin from heads to tails.
These cat qubit systems can also maintain “coherence” for as long as 1 millisecond, since microwave cavities are naturally better at protecting data from the outside environment.
However, cat qubits are not good at preventing phase-flip errors, where the relative phase between qubits is confused. In our previous coin example, this is like keeping the coin on heads, but swapping “heads = good” with “heads = bad.”
To overcome this problem, Amazon’s Ocelot chip uses four transmon qubits (the same established technology Google uses) to help monitor cat qubits. This creates a web of error-correcting qubits that help bring accuracy up to a more acceptable level.
Another issue is that microwave cavities are even harder to pack into the ultra-cold cryogenic environment required by transmon qubits. Microwaves can create thermal noise that can destroy cat states, and tightly packed cavities risk creating cross-talk. Transmon qubits have had over a decade of development and refinement, while cat qubits are still barely out of the gate.
Still, Amazon’s higher-risk, higher-reward wager may pay off. Its prototype has managed to reduce error rates by as much as 90%, and time will tell if this hybrid cat/transmon approach works.
The Dark Horse: Microsoft
Finally, Microsoft has taken the greatest “high-risk, high-reward” approach with its Majorana 1 chip, which was released February 19.
Microsoft’s Majorana 1 uses a “topological qubit,” a special surface that can hold quantum data in a spread-out way. The theory is that a surface would make it easier to scale from several dozens of qubits to several millions of them because you only need to add more surface area to add more qubits. They would also be more error-resistant because quantum information is spread out.
In Microsoft’s case, Majorana 1’s “special surface” consists of semiconductor wires made from indium antimonide (InSb) and indium arsenide (InAs), two materials with favorable properties for storing an electron’s spin. These are then wrapped in a thin aluminum shell, creating a superconductor required for quantum states to form.
It’s crucial to note that Microsoft faces even greater hurdles than Google or Amazon because topological qubits have not yet been proven to work. The Majorana 1 chip, as submitted to the journal Nature, wasn’t a working model of quantum computing. Instead, it only addressed a tiny sliver of the problem ahead.
You see, one of the challenges of topological qubits is how to “read” the information stored across these special surfaces. Information is no longer localized in a single spot, and so the entire system must be analyzed. In addition, the action of reading data from these surfaces can destroy the state. It’s much like having a secret message written in smoke. Open the door too quickly to read it, and even the slightest breeze will change what you see.
The Nature paper on the Majorana 1 chip now describes a new measurement technique to read data on topological surfaces in a single shot. Rather than doing repeated measurements to get an answer (which can introduce error and noise), the system can now read data in one go.
This is an incredible step forward… but also illustrates how far Microsoft has to go in its quantum ambitions. Time will tell whether Microsoft’s approach is the right one.
What Does This Mean for Your Wallet?
Now here’s the thing: The three tech giants aren’t the only companies working on next-generation qubits.
In fact, they might not even become the ultimate winners of the race to a viable quantum computer.
That’s because chipmakers like Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) know that quantum computing is an existential threat to their dominance. Traditional electricity-based chips have trouble with complex tasks like 3D modeling and encryption. Quantum chips might solve these problems in the blink of an eye.
That’s why firms like Nvidia are quietly funneling billions of dollars into quantum computing startups. They realize they can’t afford to miss out on the world’s next greatest technology… and neither can you.
That’s why I want you to mark your calendar for Nvidia’s “Q Day,” Thursday, March 20, at 1 p.m. ET.
At that event, Nvidia is poised to ignite the next phase of the quantum investing cycle. I expect them to announce a new breakthrough technology that could light a fire under the shares of one of its “Q” partners… a stock 1,000 times smaller than Nvidia.
To tell you all about it, I’m hosting an urgent video briefing on Thursday, March 13, at 1 p.m. ET… exactly one week before Nvidia’s announcement… because I want to get you ahead of the crowd.
Click here now to register your spot.
During this free event, I’ll tell you the story of this tiny small-cap company positioned to be crucial to Nvidia’s anticipated “Q Day” reveal, thanks to technology protected by 102 patents.
I also want you to know that this isn’t the first time I’ve made this sort of prediction. In fact, I made similar call on Nvidia itself. So during this free event, I’ll show you how one of my readers held on and made 50X their money from my Nvidia call all the way back in 2016.
This could be your first shot on the quantum revolution.
Click here to sign up and get all the details.
Sincerely,
Louis Navellier
The Editor hereby discloses that as of the date of this email, the Editor, directly or indirectly, owns the following securities that are the subject of the commentary, analysis, opinions, advice, or recommendations in, or which are otherwise mentioned in, the essay set forth below:
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)