All posts by PARKERYL

Intel (INTC) said it plans to push back the opening of two chipmaking facilities currently under construction in Ohio. 

The beleaguered chipmaker now expects the two plants on its Ohio One campus to finish construction in 2030 and 2031, Intel Chief Global Operations Officer Naga Chandrasekaran said in an open letter to employees Friday. A year ago, the company said its goal was to finish construction on the $28 billion project in 2026—already a delay from its original target of 2025. Intel broke ground on the project in 2022.

“As we continue to invest across our U.S. sites, it’s important that we align the start of production of our fabs with the needs of our business and broader market demand,” Chandrasekaran said. Construction could be accelerated in the future “if customer demand warrants,” he added. 

The delay comes as Intel’s struggling foundry business has been the subject of acquisition speculation. TSMC (TSM), the world’s largest chip manufacturer, has reportedly considered taking over some or all of Intel’s chip plants as part of an investor consortium or another structure. Separately, Broadcom (AVGO) has also reportedly looked into buying Intel’s chip-design and marketing business. 

Shares of Intel were little changed in extended trading Friday after climbing close to 3% in the regular session. They’ve lost close to half their value over the past 12 months.

Last month, I (Tom Yeung) introduced eight cyclical stocks to buy immediately. These high-quality companies had winds in their sails, and all have since performed splendidly. As of writing, these companies have returned:

• CME Group Inc. (CME): 6.4%
• Cboe Global Markets Inc. (CBOE): 6.2%
• DTE Energy Co. (DTE): 7.0%
• Duke Energy Corp. (DUK): 4.9%
• Dominion Energy Inc. (D): 3.1%
• Eversource Energy (ES): 12.7%
• AbbVie Inc. (ABBV): 19.0%
• Kimberly-Clark Corp. (KMB): 9.1%

On average, these eight stocks have surged 8.6% in less than a month.

That’s more than ten times better than the S&P 500’s return, and stands in total contrast with the negative returns of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.3%) and Nasdaq Composite (-0.1%).

We didn’t even have to take much “risk” to achieve these results. CME Group and CBOE have virtual monopolies in options and futures markets… Eversource is a New England power utility… and it’s hard to think of a more stereotypically dull firm than Kleenex maker Kimberly-Clark.

That’s because conservative stocks can provide magnificent returns when they have cyclical tailwinds on their side. Short-term seasonal effects are powering the four energy companies higher because natural gas prices typically rise during the cold winter months. Medium-term optimism is driving KMB’s gains. And longer-term business cycles are helping CME, CBOE, and ABBV do well.

Still, these cycles are a blink of an eye when viewed through the lens of Keith Kaplan, CEO of TradeSmith. To him, he’s looking for cycles across decades… if not longer.

These generational shifts can power stocks like Apple Inc. (AAPL) for a quarter-century, turning every $10,000 invested in 1997 into $16 million today.

That’s why I encourage you to reserve your spot for Keith’s latest presentation. During that free broadcast, next Thursday, February 27, he’ll be revealingwhat he’s calling “the pattern,” a cyclical effect that’s only happened every 49.5 years on average.

When this patten appears, Keith says, it can send a specific class of stocks soaring. In fact, back-tests show the last time this pattern appeared under these conditions, it led to historic gains over the long haul, such as 9,731% from a leading software company… and 28,894% from a computer-driven hardware firm.

For long-term investors, it’s an event you don’t want to miss.

To save a seat for that event, click here.

Meanwhile, I’d like to introduce two more cyclical stocks for shorter-term investors seeking to ride cyclical waves higher.

2 Roaring Cyclical Stocks to Buy

Like before, I apply four key criteria to find cyclical firms to buy:

• Upside. These firms must score an “A” or “B” in Louis Navellier’s Stock Grader (subscription to any Navellier service required). This proven quantitative system has long been a solid predictor of future gains, thanks to its focus on institutional fund flows, fundamental quality, and other critical factors.
• Quality. Companies must have “moats” around their businesses that protect them during low-cycle moments. Buying cyclical companies is pointless if the firms can’t survive the next inevitable downturn.
• Cyclicality. The firm’s industry must demonstrate an ability to bounce back. So, I exclude any “sunset” industries that are trending downward into oblivion.
• Timing. The company must trade within 30% of its 52-week low. This prevents us from buying shares of cyclical companies at the top of the market.

The Data Center Giant Hiding in Plain Sight

Anyone who has visited Northern Virginia will have seen its picturesque rolling hills, scenic trails, and budding winery industry.

In addition to the occasional hidden government base, this natural beauty hides another secret:

America’s largest data center network.

The region hosts more than 500 of these facilities – drawn in by Virginia’s world-class fiber optic network, affordable electricity, and proximity to other data centers. When you’re running a massive computer network, it’s best to locate your servers near others.

That’s where Digital Realty Trust Inc. (DLR) comes in. The San Francisco-based firm is the world’s largest data center and co-location provider – the service that rents data center facilities to other companies. Digital Realty’s 300 data centers span 50 cities, and it has strategically located centers in almost every major computing cluster.

That’s made Digital Realty an incredible winner in the race for AI computing power. On February 13, the company announced revenues of $1.4 billion (a solid 5% rise from the prior year) and earnings per share of $0.51, a fivefold jump.

The cycle will likely continue through 2025 as cloud computing companies struggle to construct data centers fast enough. In January, companies from Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) to Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) reported they were turning business away from a lack of capacity.

This has triggered a surge in new leasing activity for Digital Realty, which should bring in record profits in 2025. Analysts expect adjusted EBITDA growth to accelerate to 8% this year and 11% in 2026.

Please note that the party will eventually end for Digital Realty. Many tech firms are building their own hyperscale data centers, and these facilities will compete against Digital Realty’s vast network. DLR is also not immune from the “bust” part of the boom-bust cycles of data centers, given its relatively commoditized business.

Nevertheless, Digital Realty’s double-digit selloff since November provides an opening for investors to buy into the AI Revolution for a discount. Shares likely have a 30% short-term upside from here.

Getting Back on the Menu

In 1992, the National Livestock and Meat Board launched an advertising campaign aimed at promoting beef consumption.

“Beef. It’s What’s for Dinner” was a surprising success. Over 88% of Americans now recognize the slogan, and it may have contributed to the recovery of beef consumption in the late 1990s.

Nevertheless, no advertising campaign has ever solved the cyclicality of the meat production industry. Cattle producers typically adjust their herds collectively, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture notes this creates a “cattle cycle” that lasts 8to 12 years. The graph below illustrates how regular these peaks and troughs can be.

The latest trough is now in sight. Cattle herds are expected to bottom out this year and potentially rise again in 2026. The trade publication Drovers Magazine notes that Oklahoma calf prices are up 61% since 2022, which is creating “increasingly strong market signals for cow-calf producers to expand the beef cow herd.”

That’s excellent news for Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN), North America’s largest cattle processor. The firm handles almost a quarter of beef packed in the U.S., and has divisions across Asia and Europe that do the same. A turnaround in U.S. cattle production will strongly impact the company’s bottom line since that segment is loss-making at current production volumes.

In addition, Tyson is benefiting from consistent poultry demand, because it also controls 25% of that market. That segment generated 9.1% adjusted operating margins in its most recent quarter – the highest level since 2017. Chicken feed costs have eased, and Tyson has managed the recent bird flu epidemic relatively well.

Together, analysts expect Tyson’s net income to rise at a 19% annualized rate through 2027, a bullish sign for the stock. Shares of the meat processor have typically surged during cattle upcycles (60% during 2004-’07 and 120% in 2015-’22), and this new cattle cycle promises more of the same.

The Even Greater Cycle

The downside to cyclical companies like Digital Realty and Tyson is that “what goes up must come down.” Good times eventually end, and investors have a habit of acting as if peak cycles will never return. Shares of both firms fell as much as 50% in the last market downturn and will likely do so again.

That’s why I urge you to sign up now for Keith’s special briefing on Thursday, February 27th.

During that event, he’ll demo his company’s new tech breakthrough that revealed “the pattern.”

He’ll show you the pattern in full.

Keith will even reveal the names and tickers for 10 tech stocks poised to soar as the pattern begins to play out in 2025.

Based on what happened last time, the long-term gains could get legendary.

Just go here to get your name on the list for Keith’s February 27 briefing.  

I’ll see you here next week,

Regards,

Thomas Yeung

Markets Analyst, InvestorPlace

Global Finance: Can you briefly describe what your model does?

Joanne Horton: Yes. We’ve got what we think is a rather exciting model, which we describe in a working paper, that helps forecast in advance the likelihood that a firm will go on to commit accounting fraud.

What’s the likelihood that fraud will take place in the future? There’s lots of motivation, obviously, because a lot of fraud takes place: few cases, but each one is very expensive. In a recent interview, the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) enforcement director said they had a record $600 million in penalties in 2024 just for 70 cases. So obviously, the penalties and deterrence for doing it are not doing their role, and we need to find something else that can hopefully prevent this from happening.

But most—well, all—of the research into accounting fraud has focused on detection rather than prevention. We wanted to examine prevention. So, what can we do before the fraud occurs? Can the board of directors, the auditors, or other gatekeepers do something? Can I identify the year the fraud occurred in the account? That’s what all the models currently do.

We’re trying to look at data well before the fraud took place and say, “Would we have red-flagged this firm as likely to be committing fraud in the future?” Our model will not tell you it will happen—it simply says there’s a high risk of it happening in the future, which allows us, hopefully, to take corrective action so the fraud doesn’t take place. We don’t include the fraud at all in our model, so we can accurately identify those who are likely to commit fraud and those who are unlikely to commit fraud at 87.68% of cases on average: 90.58% one year before the fraud takes place, 83% two years, and 75% three years before the fraud takes place.

GF: What does your model tell you about how accounting fraud happens?

Horton: We know the antecedents to fraud: It is never a cliff edge but always a slippery slope. You start off small, and then it starts escalating. If we think about it, a manager—if facing pressure to beat an analyst forecast, or beat last year’s earnings, or wanting a particular bonus—has enough flexibility in the accounting rules to manage those numbers while staying within the rules. So, they change inventory methodology, or they change their assumptions on revenue recognition, and they make it such that they beat these forecasts.

But eventually, they’ll hit the limit, and then the only thing they can do is either come clean or go on to egregious misreporting. Now, we know from the academic literature that three years before the fraud, they tend to beat earnings benchmarks. And there’s a recent paper that says you’re more likely to round up your earnings-per-share number about five years before. However, the problem with this research is that they already know the fraud has taken place.

So, how are we going to track the slippery slope? Ultimately, what the managers are doing is increasing their human intervention in the accounts—legitimately, within the rules, but then that human intervention has to keep escalating because with accruals reversals, you’ve got to cover the reversal, and then you’ve got to increase the amount to beat any forecast. So, human intervention in the accounts escalates.

GF: So how do you capture that human intervention—that higher risk of fraud?

Horton: We use Benford’s law, which is a mathematical frequency model. And what we know from prior literature is that the data in the financial statements and notes will follow Benford’s law on average—if there is no human intervention in the accounts. Now, some human intervention may be legitimate, so it will change the deviation, and some may be illegitimate. So, we have to infer whether the deviations are legitimate or not, and we do that by seeing whether the deviations increase and escalate over time. That shows the slippery slope.

Even if there are small but consecutive increases in deviation, they’re having to use human intervention to cover it up; and it’s still increasing relative to what the firm should look like.

The key benefit of Benford’s law is that it doesn’t matter what kind of firm it is—public, private, what accounting policies it follows, what currency it operates in, whether it’s loss-making, whether it’s a growth company, highly leveraged or no leverage at all—makes absolutely no difference. This enables this model to be universal because you can apply it to any company, country, or industry. Once we’ve got a probability from the model, we use that to determine a red flag. And we have to have a red flag twice, so we don’t have anything that’s just random.

GF: What does it take to get that first red flag?

Horton: If they say they made a legitimate change in depreciation, you’ll see an increase in human intervention, but then the deviation shouldn’t escalate.

The model learns from prior fraud as to what it takes: when it gets to a point where, in other cases, there is a higher likelihood. The model creates this hazard ratio, which tells us the likelihood, and then we compare that to what we’d expect in the overall population. If it’s higher than we’d expect in the population, then it’s red-flagged.

GF: And when does the company get a second red flag?

Horton: So what we’ve actually found out, which is interesting, is that it’s very rare—almost impossible—to stop being red-flagged. The model keeps red-flagging you, and then you either go bankrupt or commit fraud. What we haven’t been able to observe is a firm with a red flag that then suddenly stops.

In firms that commit fraud, there’s a culture where you can be overly optimistic about things and rationalize what you’ve done prior. This is why auditors are hopeless at capturing and identifying fraud: because it’s so incremental. The problem for auditors is that if they agree to one change, it’s quite difficult not to agree to a second change, because you’ve rationalized the agreement on the first change.

GF: How do you know to look for fraud in M&A?

Horton: There’s fraud in a lot of places; and the more opaque, the more fraud. You can hide it more easily in M&A, but it’s more about due diligence. So, you are acquiring another company; and we all know that if it’s a hostile takeover, the company is going to make itself look very expensive. So, more human intervention is needed in accounting. And you see that happening over time. And even if it’s not hostile, you’re going to make yourself look good for a takeover.

The other thing we notice is where most of the fraud takes place. It’s not in the parent company, it’s in the subsidiaries. They’re not under the purview of the top brass. They may have different auditors. The parent may be putting a lot of requirements on their subsidiaries to provide a huge return, and if they can’t do it, how do you alleviate the pressure? You manage your numbers.

GF: Do you have an example?

Horton: Here’s one. HP was under pressure to achieve high revenue targets. Their initial response was to increase their human intervention in 2008: They changed their inventory valuation assumption, their revenue recognition assumptions, and a few other things. But in the end, they couldn’t maintain that. So, they ended up, in 2015 and 2016, creating fictitious revenues, valuing the inventory upward, channel stuffing, and many other things. The SEC announced in 2020 that HP had committed fraud. Our model identified the fraud, and we red-flagged HP in the fourth quarter of 2010. So, we already knew at the end of 2010 that they were likely to commit fraud.

A more recent one is [fitness-beverage maker] Celsius. They committed accounting fraud in the second and third quarters of 2021; it was announced in 2025. We red-flagged it in the fourth quarter of 2019.

GF: How are you making your model available?

Horton: We have been offered quite a lot of money to buy the model. But being an academic, I think research is a social good; and therefore, we would just like to build up the model so it’s global and then provide the output to anybody who wants it. So, we would like to allow anyone to download our red flags. The other thing is that we will publish it in detail so our model will be perfectly replicable.

The other thing we’ve noticed in our analysis is that identifying escalating human intervention also exponentially improves bankruptcy risk models, because what do you do before you go bankrupt? You try to delay it, and you will do that through the accounting. So, we think this human intervention measure should be utilized in IPOs and M&As when you’re doing due diligence—all that sort of thing. In that respect, I want it to be a public good.

GF: Would it be possible for fraudsters to use AI to fly under the radar of Benford’s law?

Horton: That is very difficult, because human intervention is human intervention in whatever form it takes. We actually tried to use AI to create a set of accounts that had a huge level of human intervention but followed Benford’s law, and it was practically impossible. Because the trouble is, if you change a few numbers in revenue, it’s going to change a lot of numbers in accounting. It’s going to change your equity, your retained earnings, your profits, your earnings per share, your EBIT, your EBITDA—all these numbers would change. And it’s incredibly difficult. I’m sure someone could spend a lot of time trying to do it, but doing it quarter on quarter on quarter, we believe, is incredibly difficult, because we’ve tried it. But nothing’s impossible.

GF: Who do you foresee using the model besides academics?

Horton: I think auditors, for sure, because they want to know their audit risk, especially if you are taking over from a previous auditor.

I think board members, because it’s their risk as well. I think for due diligence in IPOs and M&A, because you’ll notice a lot of IPOs that commit accounting fraud. So I think short sellers. Regulators could use it, too.

GF: Will there be some technology available using your model?

Horton: I imagine somebody will be capitalizing on that in the future. But we’ve just got money for a postdoc to put this into AI and see what other things we can do. We have used all listed US firms from 1962 till 2020 because that’s when we wrote the paper. We use quarterly data, which we download from Compustat. Anything in the notes, as long as it’s not a repetition of another number.

Since Benford’s law is indifferent about currency or anything else, we’re going to build the model globally: put India in there, China, the UK, Europe, etc. We’re hoping this might actually improve the accuracy because it’ll have more data to learn. But to date, it’s all listed US firms.

GF: What specific changes do you see that might suggest a company is on the slippery slope?

Horton: We look at misreporting: all types of misreporting. We also looked at fraudulent security class actions. And we also look at firms that have made restatements. Nobody said it was a fraud, but nobody said it wasn’t a fraud, either. We can forecast restatements with quite a high level of accuracy.

GF: Are regulators doing anything to anticipate fraud, or are their efforts all retrospective?

Horton: It’s very difficult because the regulator is going in because something has happened. The Public Company Accounting Oversight Board [PCAOB]  looks at companies’ accounts and audit papers and tries to make sure that the accounting is being done correctly. Here in the UK, the Financial Reporting Council looked into audit papers of the FTSE 100 and basically gave them a good health score. So, I think regulators have been trying to do it, but I don’t think they’re as good as they should be.

I think regulation should be about prevention, because the people who win are the people who commit the fraud, and the people who lose—because who pays these fines?—are the shareholders. They price it in. I would have hoped the PCAOB looked at audit reports, but you still have failure.

GF: Why is so much fraud connected with IPOs? Because they don’t do enough due diligence?

Horton: If they have an IPO, they’ll be big firms, and they’ll follow International Financial Reporting Standards or US GAAP. Even if they’re private, they will still be doing so because they’re larger firms.

So, some of it is because they’re overly optimistic. If you’re overly optimistic, you’ll make more changes because you think it’s all going to happen. You are going to make those sales, right? You’ve got to look like you’ve got a future. And then, of course, they have to maintain it, even if things don’t turn out as optimistically as they thought.

GF: If your model becomes widely used, could its presence deter people or companies from committing fraud?

Horton: I hope it would. However, let’s say you’re the CEO, and you think, “Well, let’s see if I can just get away with it.” You’re going to do a cost-benefit analysis of just keeping going. Then I hope the auditors are looking at it and asking questions. Our model might improve auditing since it can provide a list of X red flags across all listed companies in the US.

Interestingly, we also find problems like a lack of an internal control system, which is also a prelude to human intervention. If you’ve been found to have poor internal controls, you’re highly likely to have this increasing human intervention.

U.S. coin production reached a three-month high in January, according to newly released United States Mint manufacturing data. However, output remained below 1 billion coins for the 17th consecutive month, following an earlier streak of eight months above that threshold.

The U.S. Mint produced 633.56 million coins for circulating during the month – including cents, nickels, dimes, quarters, and half dollars – reflecting a 61.8% jump from December but a 16.2% decline from January 2024.

Here’s how January’s production compares to previous months over the past year:

January 2024 to January 2025 Circulating Coin Production

The U.S. Mint’s primary mission is to manufacture coins in response to public demand. It manufactures, sells, and delivers circulating coins to Federal Reserve Banks and their coin terminals, ensuring commercial banks and other financial institutions have the necessary supply.

Despite costing the Mint 3.69 cents to produce and distribute each penny, the Federal Reserve consistently orders more of them than any other denomination. In January, the Mint struck 242.4 million Lincoln cents, accounting for 38.3% of all circulating-quality coins produced for the month.

The future of the penny, however, is increasingly uncertain. On Feb. 9, President Trump ordered an end to its production, calling the move a step toward reducing “wasteful” government spending.

“For far too long the United States has minted pennies which literally cost us more than 2 cents,” Trump said in a Truth Social post. “This is so wasteful! I have instructed my Secretary of the US Treasury to stop producing new pennies. Let’s rip the waste out of our great nations budget, even if it’s a penny at a time,” Trump wrote.

Month-Over-Month

In month-over-month comparisons for coins commonly used by Americans, January production saw:

• 9.4% fewer Lincoln cents,
• 280% more Jefferson nickels,
• 52.8% more Roosevelt dimes, and
• 870.8% more quarters.

Mintages of Native American Dollars and Kennedy Halves

The U.S. Mint also produces other coins in circulating quality, including half dollars and dollars. While Native American $1 coins are no longer ordered by the Federal Reserve, they continue to be minted in circulating quality for collectors. The same applied to Kennedy half dollars until recent years — specifically in 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024.

In many years, the U.S. Mint strikes both denominations in January to meet the expected demand for the entire year. However, that has not been the case for Kennedy half dollars over the past four years, as the Federal Reserve unexpectedly ordered millions more for circulation — approximately 12 million in 2021, 7 million in 2022, 18 million in 2023, and 52 million in 2024.

It remains unclear whether any 2025 Kennedy half dollars will be produced for general circulation. So far, production figures show 3.6 million half dollars struck at the Denver Mint and 5.8 million at the Philadelphia Mint, for a total of 9.4 million coins. By comparison, 2024 production totaled 21.9 million from Denver and 15.7 million from Philadelphia, amounting to 37.6 million coins.

Mintage levels for 2025 Native American dollars are expected to remain unchanged, with 1.12 million struck at both the Denver and Philadelphia Mints for a combined 2.24 million coins – the same totals as in the previous two years.

On Jan. 28, the U.S. Mint began selling rolls, bags, and boxes of 2025 Native American dollars from the Denver and Philadelphia Mints. Collectors can expect rolls and bags of circulating 2025 Kennedy half dollars to become available on May 6.

The following table details 2025 circulating coin mintages by production facility, denomination, and design.

U.S. Mint Circulating Coin Production in January 2025

In total January production, the Denver Mint struck 283.5 million coins, while the Philadelphia Mint produced 350.06 million, bringing the combined output to 633.56 million coins. As previously noted, this represents a 16.2% decline from the 755.98 million coins minted in January 2024.

If the current production pace continues through December, the 2025 annual mintage would surpass 7.6 billion coins. For comparison, the U.S. Mint produced just over 5.6 billion coins for circulation in 2024, marking the lowest output since 2009.

Mint data also shows that 172.8 million quarters were struck in January, primarily consisting of Ida B. Wells quarters (168.4 million) and Juliette Gordon Low quarters (4.4 million), the 16th and 17th releases in the Mint’s 20-coin American Women Quarters™ series. Given their relatively low mintages, more of these same designs are likely to be produced later this year. The Mint began selling Ida B. Wells quarters in early February, with Juliette Gordon Low quarters set for release in March.

Marco Rubio, President Donald Trump’s secretary of state, was the first member of the new cabinet to be confirmed. For years a senator from Florida, he differs from some members of Trump’s inner circle on financial terms: He’s not exactly one of the ultra-rich.

Neither a tech entrepreneur nor a titan of finance, Rubio’s money has come mostly from his government salary, his home and book royalties. (For examples of some of Trump’s wealthier advisers, here’s our coverage of the fortunes of Elon Musk, Howard Lutnick, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)

Rubio served as a U.S. senator from 2011 to 2025, and was a member of the Florida House of Representatives before that. He ran unsuccessfully for the Republican presidential nomination in 2016.

He has an estimated net worth of more than $1 million, according to Forbes. Here’s how Rubio got there.

Senate and Secretary of State Salaries

Rubio earned an estimated $174,000 annually in his years as a U.S. senator from 2011 to 2025. In his latest role secretary of state, Rubio will earn more than $200,000 each year, according to Forbes.

Rubio’s most recent financial disclosure, from August 2024, shows stock in Coca-Cola (KO) and Cisco Systems (CSCO) valued at between $1,001 and $15,000 each. Both assets were divested after the report was filed, according to endnotes on the disclosure.

Book Royalties

Rubio has written several books, incluidng “An American Son,” “American Dreams,” and “Decades of Decadence.” He earned an $800,000 book advance in 2012 for “An American Son,” per Forbes.

He earned $102,500 in royalties from Penguin Random House for “American Dreams,” according to the secretary of state’s financial disclosures.

Rubio also earned more than $100,000 from sales of his most recent book, “Decades of Decadence,” which came out in 2023, according to an estimate by Forbes. Rubio’s 2024 disclosure shows he earned up to $50,000 in royalties for “Decadence.”

Real Estate

Rubio bought a property in Miami in 2021 for just under $1 million. It is now valued at about $1.75 million, according to an estimate by Forbes.

Editor’s note: “This Advanced Stock Picking Tool Uncovers Tomorrow’s Profits” was previously published in December 2024. It has since been updated to include the most relevant information available.

“Americans Cut Spending at Most Drastic Level in Four Years”…

“Stocks Bounce Back, But Head for Down Week, Month”…

“Homebuyers in U.S. Canceled Contracts at Record Rate for January”…

“Bitcoin Down 25% From All-Time High as Crypto Rout Worsens”…

No matter where you look, it’s clear that Americans are feeling the pain. We’re living through turbulent times. And for investors, that volatility is on full display in the stock market.

But what if I told you there was a better way to invest, avoiding the rollercoaster while still achieving enormous returns? 

That is, in response to recent market volatility, my team and I have turned to data and analytics to create a smart stock-picking model that only invests in the best stocks at the best times, maximizing upside potential while mitigating downside risk.

This screener analyzes thousands of stocks each month to find those best positioned to rise over the next 30 days. I’m talking stocks with a strong fundamental, technical, and sentimental basis. 

We’ve dubbed this advanced tool Auspex – in recognition of the ancient Roman officials who interpreted omens to guide their decisions. 

As I mentioned, each month, Auspex runs a comprehensive scan of the market, examining many thousands of data points to find the few stocks that are strong across the board. 

But what exactly does that entail? 

Today, we’ll start by reviewing the fundamental aspect of Auspex’s stock picking.

There are a lot of fundamental factors to consider. And that means there are a lot of ways for a stock to be fundamentally strong. 

Trained to Seek Only the Best Fundamental Setups

In our experience, three things matter most when it comes to stock fundamentals: sales, earnings, and profit margins.

Are sales rising? What about earnings? Is the trend of that growth picking up or slowing down? And how about profits? Are margins compressing or expanding? 

When looking for the market’s top performers, we want to find stocks that are growing sales and earnings. Moreover, we want to see sales growth acceleration, meaning the business is seeing underlying sales momentum. The same goes for earnings growth. 

Additionally, we want to see profit margin expansion, too. That means we’re hoping to uncover businesses whose profit margins are higher today than where they were last year. 

When a stock meets all those criteria, Auspex deems it fundamentally strong. 

And not many meet such strict criteria. 

That is, very few stocks have rising and accelerating sales and earnings growth, as well as profit margin expansion, all at the same time.

When we have Auspex scan the markets, it analyzes a universe of roughly 14,000 stocks.

In a recent scan we conducted, only about 300 of those 14,000 stocks were deemed fundamentally strong, with accelerating sales and earnings growth and swelling profit margins. 

That is just about 2% of all possible picks. 

Yet, the complete list of the most promising stocks Auspex flags is even narrower.

Written by Steven Dooley, Head of Market Insights, and Shier Lee Lim, Lead FX and Macro Strategist

US tariffs due on Tuesday

The Australian and New Zealand dollars were stuck at recent lows on Monday as markets waited for news on the implementation of new US tariffs.

US president Donald Trump last week confirmed that his new 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, along with a new 10% tariff on China, would be launched at midnight, Tuesday, 4 March (EST).

However, markets are on edge, with previous announcements on trade being subject to last-minute delays or changes.

For now, the Aussie and kiwi have been pressured by these trade worries, with the AUD/USD down 0.4% on Friday and losing 2.2% over the week.

The NZD/USD was down 0.6% on Friday and lost 2.5% over the week.

We saw a similar story in Asia with the USD higher on trade worries. The USD/SGD gained 0.2% on Friday and climbed 1.3% over the week.

The USD/CNH slipped 0.1% on Friday but climbed 0.6% over the week.

EUR/USD hit by Ukraine worries, but euro gains in other markets

The EUR/USD fell sharply on Friday due to growing tensions between US president Donald Trump and Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky. However, the euro has been stronger in other markets.

The AUD/EUR and NZD/EUR both traded toward seven-month lows. The EUR/SGD neared two-week highs.

Ahead of this week’s European Central Bank meeting, HICP inflation for the Euro region will be announced today.

HICP inflation looks likely to have slowed somewhat by 10 basis points to 2.6%, while euro area HICP inflation decreased slightly to 2.3% year over year from 2.5% in January.

We believe that the softening of services prices is mostly responsible for the easing of core price pressures; services HICP inflation will drop to 3.8% from 3.9% earlier.

Aussie looks to retail sales, GDP

The Australian dollar faces a pivotal week with key data releases, including Q4 GDP and January retail sales.

Weakness in these figures could extend the AUD/USD’s decline, especially after a prior -0.1% retail sales contraction. 

The RBA’s February meeting minutes released this Tuesday may reinforce a cautious stance, weighing further on the AUD if growth concerns persist. 

In the US, February’s US Nonfarm Payrolls and ADP employment data will drive USD volatility. Strong job growth could revive bets on Fed tightening, buoying the dollar against peers like EUR and JPY.  ISM Manufacturing and factory orders will also test sentiment toward the US economy.

The ECB’s rate announcement is expected to cut by 25-basis points, but any shift in policy guidance could sway EUR pairs. A dovish tilt may pressure EUR/USD, particularly if Q4 GDP revisions disappoint.

China’s February CPI and PPI releases loom over regional FX. Soft PPI and subdued CPI could signal persistent deflation risks, denting CNH and APAC proxies like AUD and NZD. 

USD/SGD, USD/CNH push back to highs 

Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges

Key global risk events

Calendar: 3 – 7 March  

All times AEDT

Have a question? [email protected]

*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.

Citing the need for a level playing field in access to critical minerals, deep-water ports and other key infrastructure or assets, the Trump Administration has paused the enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act of 1977 (FCPA) until August, with a possible extension to February 2026.

The FCPA, which was passed on the heels of numerous corporate corruption disclosures, makes it unlawful for any corporate officer, director, employee, company agent, or company shareholder “to offer, pay, or promise to pay money or anything of value to any foreign official for the purpose of obtaining or retaining business.”

The “over expansive and unpredictable FCPA enforcement against American citizens and businesses—by our own Government—for routine business practices in other nations not only wastes limited prosecutorial resources that could be dedicated to preserving American freedoms, but actively harms American economic competitiveness and, therefore, national security,” wrote Trump in the executive order.

Under the executive order, US Attorney General Pam Bondi has until Aug. 9 to review the guidelines and policies that govern FCPA investigations and enforcement actions and issue updated guidelines as appropriate to promote Article II authority to conduct foreign affairs. Bondi can extend her deadline for another 180 days if necessary. Upon updating the guidance, Bondi will decide whether the Department of Justice’s remedial actions are needed for previous FCPA investigations and enforcements or if presidential actions are required.

According to the authors of a post on the law firm Case & White’s blog, companies should continue to use their usual business policies.

“Notwithstanding the administration’s dramatic shift in approach to FCPA enforcement, companies should remain focused on anti-bribery and corruption compliance and, as warranted, internal investigations, given the five-year statute of limitations for FCPA offenses and the ability to toll that period for up to an additional three years, the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s parallel enforcement authority with respect to issuers (at least for now), and enforcement regimes in foreign countries and at multilateral development banks,” they wrote.

Heritage Auctions (www.HA.com), the world’s largest collectibles auctioneer, has been selected as the Official Auctioneer of the Great American Coin and Collectibles Shows (www.GACC.show) for the next five years starting with the next GACC event in the Chicago suburb of Rosemont, Illinois, September 23-27, 2025.

“Heritage will have lot viewing in the Donald E. Stephens Convention Center in Rosemont prior to and during the show there, and the auction will be conducted live and online,” explained veteran professional numismatist and show planner Larry Shepherd, President of Shepherd Expos Management, the company that is organizing and operating the GACC event.

“It’s an honor and a privilege to be chosen by Heritage Auctions, the world’s largest numismatic auction company, to be their host for the next five years. I greatly appreciate their trust and confidence in our shows by entering into this relationship,” said Shepherd.

“Heritage’s auctions traditionally have been a centerpiece of many of the large national coin expos, which allows the most serious of collectors to view and evaluate the extraordinary materials we offer at the world’s leading numismatic auctioneer,” said Todd Imhof, Executive Vice President at Heritage Auctions. “We look forward to helping GACC grow into one of the premier coin expos in the world.”

Specific information about submitting consignments for the September auction will be announced by Heritage in the coming weeks.

“The late September timing of the next GACC show presents an opportunity for guests to enjoy idyllic Chicago weather as well as world-class amenities in and around the well-known convention center. In addition to being no stranger to numismatic conventions, the venue boasts convenient proximity and transportation options to and from O’Hare International Airport and other Chicagoland destinations,” said Shepherd.

Information about special discount rates available at several hotels near the convention center can be found at https://www.gacc.show/hotels-travel-accomodations-room-group-rates.html.

Additional information for dealers and collectors about the Great American Coin and Collectibles Show, visit www.GACC.show or contact Larry Shepherd by phone at 719-464-8801 or email at [email protected].

Home buyers are less interested in “sweat equity” and “good bones” than a quick move-in, according to recent research.

At least this is what Zillow says its search trends suggest, according to a new report. Real estate marketplace company Zillow in a recent report said their analysis of search trends suggests that buyers are willing to pay nearly 4% more than expected, or about $13,000, for a home that is already remodeled.

Remodeled listings are saved 26% more than homes that are not remodeled, Zillow said, while turnkey homes are shared with a home shopping partner 30% more often than similar homes that aren’t remodeled—indications that those shoppers are more serious about buying.

This hasn’t always been the case, according to Zillow. A year earlier, the company said, the term “remodeled” contributed to a sale price premium of less than 1%. And before the pandemic, Zillow said, listings mentioning terms like “fixer,” “TLC” “needs work” or “good bones” were more likely to sell than those without those terms.

Fixer-upper opportunities can attract buyers looking to spend less money up front or eager to personalize a home. But others may prefer to forego the additional cost, effort and time to complete the work. Some market watchers say Americans who have been avoiding home renovations because of inflation and interest rates may soon decide they can’t put them off much longer. Indeed home-improvement retailers have been waiting for them to restart spending on big-ticket projects.

Homebuyers’ preferences may be influencing home prices, too. Fixer-uppers are now selling for 7% less than other similar homes—the largest discount in three years, according to Zillow.

“Buyers who are already stretching their budget to afford a home in today’s market may not be willing or able to spend more on renovations or repairs. A remodeled home may come with a higher price tag, but a buyer would get to spread that additional cost over the course of a 30-year mortgage versus paying cash upfront to make similar upgrades themselves,” said Amanda Pendleton, ZIllow’s home trend expert.