All posts by PARKERYL

The worlds of AI and blockchain are collapsing into one frame. Pretty soon, any blockchain project not using AI will seem as anachronistic as a horse and carriage pulling up at the starting line alongside a row of sleek F1 cars. OK, perhaps that’s a bit extreme – but you get the picture. AI-driven web3 projects are all the rage at the moment, with Bitwise suggesting the intersection could add a jaw-dropping $20 trillion to global GDP by 2030. Not exactly chump change.

It’s not hard to appreciate the benefits of combining blockchain and AI: the data-crunching capacity of the latter pairs incredibly well with blockchain’s immutability, transparency, and security. From automating trades to securing smart contracts, artificial intelligence has become the ultimate wingman for blockchain innovation. 

Here are five projects wielding AI to solve real-world DeFi and blockchain problems in 2025.

0G Labs: A L1 Chain for Autonomous Agents 

0G Labs is the world’s first decentralized AI operating system, and with the ‘agentic economy’ the dominant narrative in crypto-AI, it could become the iOS of the industry. With over $400 million in funding so far – including $30 million from a recent node sale – the Layer-1 has the capital to support its ambition; it also has the tech, with the network said to boast a blistering 50 GB/second data throughput, 50,000x faster and 100x cheaper than competitors. Its 0G Hub, meanwhile, offers a one-stop platform for dApps, analytics, and no-code AI agent creation, and a DeFi-focused AI service market is set to launch later this year. 

By enabling on-chain agents to operate at scale, this San Francisco-based project is setting the scene for an exciting new era of DeFi automation.

Arcium: Blockchain Audit Trails for AI Models

Arcium is the encrypted supercomputer the web3 world didn’t know it needed. Essentially, the project delivers a trustless framework to compute over fully encrypted data, something of utmost importance given AI models are typically trained on sensitive datasets – including those containing proprietary info. By putting AI computation audit trails on-chain, Arcium ensures the verifiability and trust of AI/ML models, while satisfying organizations that their sensitive data is never exposed. 

Arcium’s recent partnership with the Darklake DEX will see the pair build a full-stack encrypted execution stack on Solana, while its public testnet rollout is set to kick off April 30.

Octane: AI-Powered Defi Threat Detection

Octane is an AI-powered cybersecurity outfit that puts machine learning to work detecting and fixing smart contract vulnerabilities before hackers can pounce. Given the steep cost of these hacks – for individual projects and, reputationally, for the industry as a whole – Octane’s AI-driven threat detection and one-click bug fixes are music to the ears of builders and end users.

“Flawed blockchain code enables billions in theft across crypto… Octane’s AI continuously scans codebases, empowering developers with proactive threat detection and one-click fixes throughout the entire development lifecycle.” — CEO Giovanni Vignone.

By beefing up blockchain security – particularly in terms of smart contracts – Octane could help the defi industry shed its lawless Wild West image.

Glider: A New Age of Permissionless Trading 

Crypto trading is hard, but it doesn’t have to be; that’s the basic premise of Glider, an AI-driven platform for building, testing, and executing non-custodial strategies across the cryptosphere. Set to launch later this year after raising $4 million in an Andreessen Horowitz-led round, Glider deploys AI for activities like automated rebalancing, fund control, and portfolio adjustments across multiple networks. As the website puts it, “Managing your crypto portfolio shouldn’t feel complex.”

For DeFi’s movers and shakers, Glider promises less grunt work (who wants to guzzle coffee and gaze at trading screens all day?) and more gains, with strategies optimized in real time without the need for manual intervention. 

ExoraPad: Project Launches with AI Vetting

Finally, there’s ExoraPad, an AI-driven launchpad for promising RWAs, DePINs, and Web3 projects, built on the XRP Ledger (XRPL). While web3 launchpads are nothing new, ExoraPad isn’t your garden-variety gateway: it uses AI algorithms to sift through the field and spotlight only the best ventures. Its staking-based tier system, meanwhile, rewards higher stakers with priority access, better allocations, and investment perks, while XRPL’s proven infrastructure ensures transparency and risk mitigation.

By filtering out the noise (and in defi, it’s often cacophonous), ExoraPad is giving investors the sort of peace of mind they crave. It also appeals to strong projects, confident they can pass muster when AI’s running the rule over them.

With AI tokens capturing 35.7% of crypto investor interest in Q1, the synergies between AI and blockchain continue to strengthen. One wonders which use case will have the most legs in the race towards ‘$20 trillion by 2030’.

For years, the narrative surrounding financial fraud has often centered on older adults as the primary targets. However, recent data paints a different picture, as younger adults have become an outsized proportion of those affected. This is driven, in part, by the online habits of younger generations, where their familiarity with digital platforms makes them better targets of scams.

“Younger adults often believe tech savviness equals scam immunity,” Adewale Adeife, a senior cybersecurity consultant at EY, told Investopedia. “That overconfidence lowers their guard and makes them ideal targets for fast-money schemes,”

In this article, we highlight the types of scams that target different age groups and the psychological factors that make younger adults particularly susceptible.

Age-Based Vulnerabilities: Myth vs. Data

For years, conventional wisdom suggested older adults were the primary victims of financial fraud. However, recent research emphasizes a recurring finding in recent years: younger adults are losing money to fraud at rates that outpace those who are older, even as the “success” rate for scam artists (those where money is gained) is rising for all age groups.

Still, scammers are working to take advantage of online habits, social behaviors, finances, and psychology, all of which are affected by age. FTC data shows that in 2024, 44% of people ages 20 to 29 who reported fraud had financial losses, compared with 24% among those aged 70 to 79. Similarly, a 2024 PYMTS Intelligence and Featurespace study found that 83% of young adults were deceived at least once by a suspicious link in a message, with 39% of millennials and 36% of Gen Z reporting household losses to scams compared with only 19% of Baby Boomers and older adults.

Digital Natives, Digital Prey

While young people are often called “digital natives,” this familiarity with technology doesn’t translate to some sort of scam immunity. A March 2025 study looking at Instagram users between 16 and 29 found that frequent social media use often leads to “quick, instinctive decisions instead of systematically evaluating risks,” Jennifer Klütsch, one of its authors, told the Wall Street Journal.

The study also found that younger people are both more likely to trust a sender they recognize without scrutinizing suspicious links and to make impulsive decisions driven by fear of missing out on social experiences. This vulnerability aligns all too well with scammers’ tactics. Klütsch and her colleagues’ work, building on previous research, found that messages from followers (versus non-followers) and messages offering social opportunities (compared with faux job or relationship prospects) substantially increased young people’s susceptibility to phishing, where scammers impersonate legitimate senders in emails and texts.

“Social media is valued as a trusted and habitually-used environment, [and] its design makes it also inherently conducive to the effectiveness of [social engineering] attacks,” Klütsch and her colleagues concluded.

Types of Scams Targeting the Young

Young adults face particular scams tailored to their digital habits and life stage:

• Employment scams: “We’re seeing a rise in job offer scams, where fake recruiters ask for training fees,” Adeife said. Other common tactics include fake check schemes where victims deposit fraudulent checks and transfer money for “training” or “equipment.”
• Online purchase scams: Young bank customers are more than twice as likely to use credit cards to pay scammers as those over 40. The top products used include event tickets, salon services, jewelry, clothing, and eyewear.
• Cryptocurrency scams: Cryptocurrency fraud is among the most remunerative for scam artists, with a “success” rate of 60% when targeting the young.
• Social media scams: Social media platforms have become primary arenas for fraud targeting younger adults. “[Scammers] pose as influencers or friends, adding urgency with fake threats like ‘Your account will be closed,’” Adeife said. Since 69% of Gen Z claim to be “always connected” to the internet (compared with 32% of Baby Boomers), scammers have far more access to them than with other generations. In addition, on platforms like Instagram, messages from supposed followers can exploit users’ trust in the platform itself.

The Bottom Line

“Young adults are a susceptible user group, prone to be targeted by phishers who exploit their needs and expectations,” Klütsch and her colleagues wrote in the March 2025 study. This accessibility for scamsters operating worldwide means that younger adults are being defrauded at rates far higher than other generations. “Many people think scams mostly affect older adults,” the FTC has noted. “But reports to the FTC…tell a different story: anyone can be scammed.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 500 points, or 1.3%, near midday Thursday and there was one stock that bore most of the blame: UnitedHealth Group (UNH). 

Shares of UnitedHealth plummeted more than 20% after the health insurer cut its full-year earnings forecast, citing higher-than-expected costs. Meanwhile, more than two-thirds of the 30 stocks in the blue-chip Dow, one of the most commonly cited measures of U.S. stock market performance, were trading higher. The S&P 500 was up 0.3% at the same time and the Nasdaq Composite—usually much more volatile than the Dow due to its preponderance of growth stocks—was marginally lower after yesterday’s sell-off. 

The Dow’s dramatic underperformance on Thursday was a clear reflection of the index’s unique methodology. The Dow is price-weighted, meaning the stocks with the highest share prices have the most influence on the index’s performance. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq, on the other hand, are capitalization-weighted indexes that are more influenced by the companies with the highest market values, not the highest share prices. 

UnitedHealth Group, with a closing price of $585.04 yesterday, was the highest-priced stock in the Dow and thus its most influential component. Goldman Sachs (GS), which closed at $499.05 yesterday, is the only Dow stock with a share price within $100 of UnitedHealth’s. (With UnitedHealth’s losses on Thursday, Goldman could finish the week as the Dow’s heftiest stock.) 

Apple (AAPL), with a closing price of $194.27 yesterday, has a fraction of UnitedHealth’s influence within the Dow. But the iPhone maker has 15 billion shares, and thus a market capitalization of nearly $3 trillion. UnitedHealth’s approximately 900 million shares put its market cap at Wednesday’s close at $535 billion, meaning Apple stock has more than 5 times the weight in the S&P 500.

To be sure, UnitedHealth, the S&P 500’s 14th-largest company heading into Thursday—still has a massive amount of influence within the S&P 500.

The selection committee that picks stocks for the Dow is cognizant of its peculiarities. Its price-weighted methodology, according to S&P Global, “has meant, over the years, that extremely high-priced stocks have not been included in The Dow.” Investors often speculate that companies with high share prices split their stock in part to increase their chances of joining the Dow. In recent years, Amazon (AMZN) and Nvidia (NVDA) have both been added to the Dow in relatively short order after splitting their stocks, which had been trading at more than $1,000 per share.

The Dow isn’t the only index susceptible to hazardous imbalance. Earlier this year, the Magnificent Seven—Apple, Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA)—accounted for about one-third of the S&P 500, an extreme level of concentration that set off some investors’ alarm bells. 

The market mood has been dark lately. Stocks have cratered. Bonds have crumbled. Consumer confidence is collapsing. And yet, in the midst of one of the fastest 20% market drops in modern history, Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell essentially told investors yesterday: “We’re in no rush to cut rates.”

That’s right. With the economy cracking under the weight of a global trade war and sentiment falling off a cliff, the captain of the monetary ship looked us in the eye and said, “We’re going to wait and see.”

Wall Street didn’t like it. Stocks and yields initially sank in response.

But we’re here to tell you, don’t panic just yet. More importantly, don’t listen to the words; watch the feet.

Powell may have said “no cuts for now,” but the evolving reality on the ground says something very different… 

In fact, we believe the Fed is on the brink of launching a full-blown rescue mission for the U.S. economy – and it could send stocks soaring.

Let’s break it down.

Powell’s Stagflation Dilemma and the Federal Reserve’s Tough Choice

To us, Powell’s message yesterday made clear that the Fed is confused.

He said that Trump’s massive tariff regime is larger than expected and that it will likely create more inflation and slow the economy more than expected. That’s a problem because rising inflation + falling growth = stagflation.

That would be an economy where central banks are damned if they do and damned if they don’t.

Should they raise rates to fight inflation or cut them to combat the slowdown?

Powell said the Fed doesn’t know which it’ll be yet – so it’s going to sit on the sidelines and wait to find out.

That might sound measured and diplomatic. But in reality, it’s a dangerous game of chicken. And Powell knows it.

Why the Fed Must Act: Financial Conditions Are Too Tight

If you strip away the ‘Fed speak’ and look at the data, the picture becomes clear: The central bank should already be cutting rates.

Bloomberg’s U.S. Financial Conditions Index – a catch-all measure of credit spreads, equity levels, and money supply – shows that outside of 2020’s COVID crash, financial conditions are now tighter than they’ve been at any time in the past decade.

Indeed, they are currently tighter than they were during China’s 2015 slowdown, the 2018 Fed freak-out, and 2022’s inflation panic.

Financial conditions are too tight… 

Because here’s the backdrop we are dealing with right now:

• Consumer confidence is near a 50-year low. According to the University of Michigan’s latest survey, consumer sentiment plunged 11% this month to 50.8 – a 12-year low and the second-lowest level on record since 1952.
• Retail sales are slowing, especially on a core basis. Though sales surged 1.4% in March, this uptick is likely temporary as consumers attempt to ‘frontload’ tariffs. In February, retail sales rose 0.2%, much lower than the 0.7% increase economists projected.
• Business investment has stalled, down $130 billion from Q3 to Q4 of 2024. 
• The housing market is frozen solid. Data from the National Association of Realtors shows that existing home sales fell 1.2% year-over-year.
• Despite all of the above, bond yields are spiking, not falling. The 10-year now sits at 4.29%, above where it was before Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement.

This is not a good cocktail. 

It practically screams for Fed action. And we believe Powell is quietly preparing for that –  regardless of what he’s saying in public.

D.R. Horton (DHI) on Thursday announced fiscal second-quarter results with fewer ordered and closed homes than expected, as revenue and profit also fell short of analysts’ estimates.

The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $2.58 on revenue of $7.73 billion, both below consensus forecasts of analysts compiled by Visible Alpha.

D.R. Horton had 22,437 net sales orders in the quarter and closed on 19,276 homes, both down 15% year-over-year. Analysts had expected 26,384 net orders and 20,205 closings.

“The 2025 spring selling season started slower than expected as potential homebuyers have been more cautious due to continued affordability constraints and declining consumer confidence,” executive chairman David Auld said.

DR Horton Cuts Revenue, Homes Closed Forecasts

The homebuilder cut its fiscal 2025 guidance for revenue and homes closed based on results for first two quarters and “current market conditions.” It now expects revenue of $33.3 billion to $34.8 billion, down from $36.0 billion to $37.5 billion, and closings of 85,000 homes to 87,000 homes, reduced from 90,000 to 92,000.

D.R. Horton also lifted its projected stock buybacks for the fiscal year to $4 billion, up from $2.6 billion to $2.8 billion previously, as the company’s board approved a new $5 billion repurchase plan.

Shares of D.R. Horton were up more than 2% less than an hour after markets opened Thursday. They entered the day down 16% so far this year as homebuilder stocks have fallen on concerns that tariffs would raise costs.

If you don’t pay the property taxes that you owe on your home, you could lose it.

When property taxes go unpaid, the amount you owe becomes a lien on your house. If you don’t pay off the amount you owe, the house could be sold in a tax sale. In other instances, the house may be put in foreclosure before being sold.

How Soon You’ll Lose Your House

How quickly can a home with unpaid property taxes be sold? It typically takes one to three years.

“Paying property taxes on time is critical since not paying for as little as one year in some municipalities allows that municipality to place your property on the upcoming property auction list,” says Kassi Fetters, owner of Artica Financial Services.

Fetters went on to point out that once your property is auctioned off, that municipality will pay off your property tax debt, late fees, and auction fees for you. Then you get what’s left. “I’ve seen this happen for nonpayment of property taxes after only two years,” said Fetters.

Redeeming a House

If you have enough money, you may be able to get your house back. It is possible for a homeowner to redeem the property after a tax sale by paying the sale amount or back taxes owed plus interest. How long you have to redeem a property varies from state to state.

How to Avoid Being Late on Property Taxes

Using escrow is one way to make sure you have enough money to pay your property tax bill.

“This means that your property taxes are added to your mortgage payment, so it’s done automatically,” says Noah Damsky, a Principal at Marina Wealth Advisors. “This is the most convenient method because it’s built into your regular budget and doesn’t require you to make multiple one-off property tax payments each year.”

You can also make direct payments to your local tax collector. Start saving early in the year to have enough for your property tax payments.

“You can make one-off payments each year to your county property assessor online, so it’s convenient; you just have to make sure you make the deadlines. There are often soft deadlines that can be missed without penalty and firm deadlines weeks later that carry stiff late penalties,” Damsky says.

Make a plan for paying your property taxes. Put aside a little each month so you’ll have the full amount saved by the time your property taxes are due.

The Bottom Line

Falling behind on your property tax payments could cause you to lose your home. This could happen in a year to three years, so you could go from being a homeowner to living without a house in a short period of time.

If you still want to keep your home and you have saved enough money, you can redeem it after a tax sale by paying the sale amount of the house or taxes that are owed plus interest. To avoid falling behind on your property taxes, put aside some money each month so you’ll have enough to cover your property taxes when they come due.

We are thrilled to announce that Convera Live, the international roadshow hosted by Convera, a global leader in commercial payments, is setting its sights for North America. This must-attend event for senior financial decision makers will feature industry experts and discussions around trends shaping international payments today including market insights, key factors driving volatility, and ways to navigate global commerce.

Following a successful run of events across Australia, Singapore, and Europe, the Convera Live roadshow series will bring its expertise to over 10 key cities in total across the globe, including Canada and the United States.

The first North American event kicks off on April 24, 2025 at the World Trade Center in New York City. Those interested can register to attend here.

“The volatile global economy creates major challenges for businesses operating internationally. Convera Live brings our experts’ insights directly to companies to help them navigate currency risks, understand market trends, and help protect their profits when expanding globally.” said Steven Dooley, Global Head of Market Insights at Convera. “After tremendous success across other regions, we’re excited to expand our roadshow locations.”

Convera Live offers a unique opportunity for businesses to:

Gain expert insights on the currency market outlook

Learn from Convera’s market analysts how the new Trump administration’s trade policies and tariff strategies could impact financial markets.

Develop effective FX risk management strategies

Discover practical approaches to help mitigate foreign exchange exposure and protect your business from unexpected currency fluctuations.

Create a roadmap for global expansion

Understand how to successfully pursue international growth despite economic headwinds. Learn from Convera executives who have navigated expansion during challenging economic conditions.

Network with industry peers

Connect with other business professionals and share valuable insights into navigating the current economic landscape.

Convera wins best B2B payments company award

The launch of the Convera Live Global Roadshow follows the company’s recent triumph at the ninth FinTech Breakthrough Awards. Convera won the title of Best B2B Payments Company, recognized for its tech-led payment solutions, expansive financial network, and foreign exchange expertise, helping 26,000 customers globally do business across borders.

The Fintech Breakthrough Awards acknowledge industry excellence by evaluating every entrant based on key areas of innovation, performance, ease of use, functionality, value and impact. Every entrant must complicate a detailed application providing product overviews, technical specifications, real-world case studies, and details of the product’s future evolution. Each submission undergoes a rigorous evaluation and peer comparison by an expert judging panel.

This latest win follows Convera’s inclusion in CNBC’s list of top fintech companies in 2024 and FXC Intelligence’s top 100 cross border payment companies.

Want more insights on the topics shaping the future of cross-border payments? Tune in to Converge, with new episodes every Wednesday.

Plus, register for the Daily Market Update to get the latest currency news and FX analysis from our experts directly to your inbox.

Shares of Eli Lilly (LLY) jumped 12% in premarket trading Thursday after the pharmaceutical company released late-stage clinical trial results for its oral weight-loss drug that “demonstrated statistically significant efficacy results and a safety profile consistent with injectable GLP-1 medicines.”

The first of seven Phase 3 trials for orforglipron showed it was more effective than a placebo at causing weight loss and a reduction in A1C, a long-term blood sugar metric used in evaluating diabetes treatments, Lilly said. The reductions in weight and A1C increased for patients taking higher doses of the drug.

The drug had similar gastrointestinal side effects to Eli Lilly’s injectible weight-loss drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound, including nausea, indigestion, and diarrhea. The rate of patients reporting the side effects also varied among different doses, impacting 10% to 26% of patients.

Eli Lilly said it plans to present the data at a conference and in a peer-reviewed journal. Results from other trials for orforglipron will be released later this year, and the company expects to file for Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval as a type 2 diabetes treatment in 2026.

Lilly, rival Novo Nordisk (NVO), and others are in development of new weight-loss treatments that can be taken orally rather than injected. Pfizer (PFE) halted an oral drug trial earlier this week after a patient reported a liver injury.

While Eli Lilly shares soared on the news, those of Novo Nordisk—the maker of blockbuster drugs Ozempic and Wegovy—sank 6% about 30 minutes before the opening bell.

U.S. stock futures are mixed following Wednesday’s market sell-off; Nvidia (NVDA) stock is in focus after sinking yesterday, with CEO Jensen Huang reportedly visiting China for talks; Netflix (NFLX) is set to report quarterly results after the bell; UnitedHealth Group (UNH) shares plummet after the health insurance provider cuts its profit forecast; and U.S.-listed shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) rise after the chipmaker posts strong results and maintains its revenue outlook. Here’s what investors need to know today.

1. US Stock Futures Mixed After Indexes Drop Wednesday

U.S. stock futures are mixed after indexes tumbled in the prior session on trade war jitters and comments by Fed Chief Jerome Powell. Nasdaq futures are up about 0.7% after the tech-heavy index fell 3.1% Wednesday, while S&P 500 futures also are pointing higher. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are 1.5% lower, pulled lower by plunging UnitedHealth Group (UNH) shares. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is moving higher to trade at around $84,700. Yields on the 10-year Treasury note are rising to above 4.3%. Oil futures are more than 1% higher. Gold futures are ticking lower. Stock and bond markets will closed for Good Friday tomorrow, with bond markets closing today at 2 p.m. ET.

2. Nvidia Stock in Focus After Sinking Yesterday

Nvidia (NVDA) stock is recovering slightly in premarket trading after sinking nearly 7% yesterday as the firm said it’s set to take a $5.5 billion charge as a result of U.S. restrictions on AI chip exports to China. Morgan Stanley analysts said they now expect an 8% to 9% hit to Nvidia’s data center revenue over the next couple quarters after the U.S. government told the chipmaker it would require a federal export license in order to sell its H20 chips to China. According to the Financial Times, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang visited China Thursday to meet with tech leaders and government officials, with state broadcaster CCTV quoting him as saying the country “was a very important market for Nvidia.”

3. Netflix Set to Report Q1 Results After the Bell

Netflix (NFLX) shares are up roughly 1.5% in premarket trading ahead of its anticipated first-quarter earnings report after the closing bell. Analysts expect the company to post a 12% year-over-year revenue increase. Netflix’s report comes as analysts at Oppenheimer and Bank of America maintained their bullish ratings on the streaming giant, arguing it was well positioned to navigate any potential economic uncertainty. According to The Wall Street Journal, company executives laid out ambitious targets at a business review meeting last month, including plans to double revenue by 2030.

4. UnitedHealth Stock Plummets on Cuts to Full-Year Profit Outlook

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) stock is plummeting 20% in premarket trading, bringing down Dow futures, after the insurance provider reported disappointing results and cut its 2025 profit forecasts. UnitedHealth reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $7.20 on revenue that rose 10% year-over-year to $109.58 billion, both shy of Visible Alpha estimates. The company also lowered its full-year EPS and adjusted EPS outlooks. UnitedHealth shares entered the day up about 16% since the start of the year.

5. TSMC Stock Rises on Strong Earnings, Unchanged Outlook

U.S.-listed shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) are rising more than 3% in premarket trading after the world’s largest contract chipmaker reported strong first-quarter results and maintained its 2025 revenue outlook despite growing trade disputes. The firm reported EPS of 13.94 New Taiwan dollars ($0.43) on revenue that rose 42% year-over-year to NT$839.25 billion ($25.85 billion), topping estimates. CEO C.C. Wei said on the earnings call that the company continues “to expect our full-year 2025 revenue to increase by close to mid-20s percent in U.S. dollar terms.”

Written by the Market Insights Team

Hopes for “Fed put” fade

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s firm stance on prioritizing inflation has dashed expectations for near-term interest-rate cuts. Yesterday, Powell dismissed concerns about disorderly market behaviour, emphasizing that there’s no immediate need for the Fed to intervene. Ironically, this hawkish approach could set the stage for more volatility today, particularly as the long holiday weekend approaches. Traders are expected to scale back their positions to mitigate risks from potential headline-driven shocks.

Indeed, recession odds are climbing even further due to the pushback on the timing of cuts too. This explains why all three major US equity indexes fell on Wednesday – the S&P by 2.24%, the Dow by 1.73% and the Nasdaq by 3.07%. Yields also moved lower, whilst safe haven gold stamped fresh record highs – now up over 25% year-to-date – its best start to a year since 1970.

Already under pressure from tariff and recession risks, US equities are also contending with the “death cross” pattern – a technical signal that some interpret as a harbinger of further downside. This pattern occurs when the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average. While the death cross is often seen as a turning point where a shorter-term correction may evolve into a sustained downtrend, historical data suggests it doesn’t always predict significant declines.

A murky economic outlook

Kevin Ford – FX & Macro Strategist

The Bank of Canada (BoC) decided to hold interest rates steady at 2.75% following seven consecutive rate cuts. Speculation about a potential further cut intensified leading up to the announcement, driven by softer-than-expected inflation data for March. This led to long USD/CAD positioning, briefly pushing the Canadian dollar closer to the 1.40 mark. After the BoC announcement, the pair dropped back below 1.39, dipping as low as 1.385. Following the BoC’s latest decision, the likelihood of another rate cut in the June meeting has climbed to 58%.

The central bank emphasized that it will adopt a cautious approach in the coming months as it evaluates both the broader economic landscape and the toll that ongoing tariffs are taking on the Canadian economy. Importantly, for the third consecutive meeting, the BoC reiterated that monetary policy alone cannot resolve uncertainties stemming from trade disputes. Governor Tiff Macklem reaffirmed the central bank’s commitment to price stability, stressing that despite the uncertain outlook, decisions will be driven by hard economic data in either direction.

Similar to other global central banks—such as the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the U.S. Federal Reserve—the BoC highlighted the challenges in delivering forward guidance amidst elevated uncertainty, particularly in inflation forecasting. However, the central bank outlined two potential economic scenarios tied to the duration of U.S. trade tariffs.

Scenario One: If tariffs are eventually negotiated away but the process remains unpredictable, caution among businesses and households could persist. In this case, GDP growth would stall in Q2 and recover only moderately, leaving inflation below the 2% target.

Scenario Two: A prolonged trade war could shrink Canada’s GDP in the second quarter, pushing the economy into a year-long recession, with inflation temporarily exceeding 3% by mid-2026.

Regardless of the scenario, one sector of the economy is already bearing the brunt of tariff pressures: the auto industry. General Motors has announced  plans to lay off hundreds of workers at its Ingersoll, Ontario plant. This follows a two-week shutdown at Stellantis’ Windsor, Ontario facility, where operations are scheduled to resume during the weeks of April 21 and April 28. Meanwhile, the CAMI assembly plant, also in Ingersoll, has confirmed an extended shutdown lasting several months.

The economic outlook for Canada remains bleak. For the Bank of Canada, the question remains whether there will be room to further cut rates in its upcoming meetings as it waits for clearer data on the evolving and blurry economic climate.

Trade tensions overshadow retail sales boost

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

The US dollar index remained under pressure yesterday, flirting with the key 100 handle and near its lowest level in three years. President Trump’s escalating trade barriers, including a new probe into tariffs on critical minerals, have intensified concerns about US economic growth. These potential tariffs, alongside existing threats, have heightened fears of a recession, prompting outflows from dollar-denominated assets.

Earlier concessions on autos and electronics briefly slowed the selloff, but the dollar’s decline resumed as trade tensions with China deepened. The surge in US retail sales didn’t support either because it’s the future impact of tariffs that matters most. The overall tone of the report was stronger than expected as households rushed to purchase cars ahead of anticipated tariffs, yet restaurants and drinking places posted their largest jump since January 2023, indicating a consumer still willing to go out and spend. Nevertheless, the data failed to offset the broader pressure on the dollar even amidst softer inflation readings from Canada, the Eurozone, and the UK, reflecting the growing uncertainty surrounding US trade policies and their global impact.

The US economy faces four major shocks. First, higher tariffs on imports will reduce real disposable income, creating a demand shock. Second, surging policy uncertainty, particularly around trade, is unlikely to ease soon and is already curbing business investment. Third, global supply chain disruptions are intensifying as firms stockpile goods. Finally, tighter financial market conditions are emerging. Falling US stock prices, rising long-term interest rates, a depreciating dollar, and widening corporate bond spreads are dampening consumer spending and business investment. These combined shocks pose significant risks to economic stability.

Tariffs clear way for ECB cut

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

Money markets are widely anticipating another 25-basis point rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) today. After the March meeting, the ECB seemed set for a pause, but Trump’s trade tariffs have intensified growth risks, solidifying the case for ECB easing. While fiscal spending from Germany and the EU has improved the Eurozone’s growth outlook, it remains a distant prospect, and the focus now shifts to the ECB’s guidance for the months ahead amidst the tariff turmoil.

Markets expect the deposit facility to drop to 1.75% by Q4, with a possibility of further moves into accommodative territory. However, given the uncertain economic backdrop, the ECB is likely to maintain a cautious stance, keeping its options open. While the growth impact of tariffs is relatively clear, inflation effects remain uncertain and will depend on the evolution of the trade conflict.

What does this mean for the euro though? Strikingly, the correlation between short-term rate differentials and EUR/USD has disappeared since “liberation day,” with the currency pair careering over 5% higher despite the 40 basis point tumble in the German-US two-year yield spread. This adds to the evidence that European bonds and the euro are becoming preferred alternatives as confidence in US assets wane. While ECB rate cuts may marginally impact the euro, broader market dynamics tied to growth concerns are likely to play a more significant role. For now, EUR/USD is expected to find support at $1.13, with an upside target of $1.15 still on the table.

Sterling’s diverging paths

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

GBP/USD hit a six-month high yesterday, trading around $1.3250, but has since retreated slightly following Fed Powell’s comments. The circa 5.5% rally in cable year-to-date is mostly down to the weaker USD, driven by concerns over President Trump’s trade policies and their potential impact on the US economy. However, softer-than-expected UK inflation and labour market data this week has also weighed on the pound. This has cemented market expectations of a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut in May, with two more cuts fully priced in by year-end as well.

Against the euro, sterling has struggled more. The GBP/EUR pair reflects the pound’s relative weakness, as the euro benefits from higher liquidity and ongoing repatriation of financial assets into the Eurozone. The UK’s inflation data, combined with a deteriorating labour market outlook, has added to the pound’s challenges, though the pair has rebounded about 1% so far this week following last week’s aggressive selloff.

Overall, the pound’s movements this year have been shaped by mixed UK economic data, but largely due to broader global trade uncertainties. GBP/USD has seen gains due to dollar weakness, but GBP/EUR’s slide highlights the pound’s vulnerability amid global and domestic economic concerns.

EUR, NZD and CHF with +5% swing in seven trading days

Table: 7-day currency trends and trading ranges

Key global risk events

Calendar: April 14-17

All times are in ET

Have a question? [email protected]

*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.