All posts by PARKERYL

Last night, as you’ve no doubt heard, Israel launched a large targeted air strike on Iran, hitting its Natanz atomic facility – a significant escalation in regional tensions.. 

Now stocks are crashing on fears that this could seriously heighten geopolitical instability around the globe..

But we’re here to tell you that, while those worries are understandable, this battle should remain contained to the region for now…

For long-term investors, history suggests that markets often recover from geopolitical shocks – offering opportunities amid the volatility. 

Here’s why we think that’s the case. 

What Just Happened: Israel’s Air Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Sites

Just hours ago, on Friday morning, Israel launched a major preemptive operation – dubbed Operation Rising Lion or Am KeLavi – blitzing Iran’s nuclear and missile sites, including the Natanz facility and key military leadership in Tehran. Reportedly, this attack killed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander Hossein Salami and two nuclear scientists in the process.

And while Israel has struck Iran before, this is the first time it’s directly hit a nuclear facility.

In April 2024, Israel carried out a limited strike near Isfahan, targeting air-defense radar that protected the Natanz nuclear site. Though close, this did not directly hit enrichment centrifuges or nuclear infrastructure. 

Then in October, Israel launched a larger missile and air campaign that hit air defenses, missile production, and even a nuclear-related research complex at Parchin – but once again, no direct attack on enrichment or centrifuge facilities.

Friday’s strike on core nuclear sites (and key officials) marks an escalation beyond earlier attacks.

As a result, some geopolitical experts are warning that ‘this time is different’ and that the Iranian response could be much more severe than what we saw throughout 2024. 

Such a severe response could risk disrupting oil supplies, spiking oil prices, reigniting global inflation, fracturing already-frayed geopolitical relations, plunging the global economy into a recession, and dragging everyone into World War III.

There is definitely a potential apocalyptic outcome at play here.

But history says it is very unlikely to unfold that way…

Why Iran Will Retaliate Via Oil

No one wants a full-blown war in the Middle East. That seems especially the case for Iran, which has already been weakened militarily and politically and probably wouldn’t stand a chance in an escalated conflict against both Israel and the United States.

But it also can’t just lay down and let Israel steamroll it with airstrikes. It needs to respond in some way.

And we believe that response will largely be to weaponize oil.

Historically, Iran has leveraged oil and maritime disruptions to escalate pressure during skirmishes. A salient example is the 2019 Abqaiq-Khurais drone strike, which knocked out about 5% of global oil production and led to a spike in global prices. 

Doing so now could be especially potent…

Because President Trump is intent on lowering U.S. oil prices and keeping inflation low so that he can secure rate cuts. But none of that will happen if oil prices spike to $80-plus. Inflation would stay high, and rate cuts would be off the table.

Iran knows this and, therefore, knows that it can go for the jugular here by weaponizing oil.

Disrupt supply chains and spike oil prices. Reignite global inflation. Pressure Trump to step in and tell Israel to back down.

We think that’s most likely Iran’s strategy here – which means short-term pain, long-term gain for stocks.

Tesla (TSLA) shares have risen this week as investors may be moving past the fiery public spat between CEO Elon Musk and President Donald Trump.

The electric vehicle maker’s shares are up 8% this week, recouping more than half of the ground lost last week in the wake of Trump and Musk’s social media shots at one another. The back and forth started as an argument over Trump’s “Big Beautiful” taxation-and-spending bill but spiraled into a now-deleted post in which Musk accused Trump of being in the “Epstein files,” referencing the late convicted sex trafficker. The public fight ended up costing Tesla a spot in the illustrious $1 trillion market capitalization club with a one-day drop of more than $150 billion. 

This week has seen a cooling of tensions, at least on social media, with Musk admitting he regrets some of his posts. He also reposted Trump’s criticism of California Gov. Gavin Newsom. 

Tesla’s stock has been on a roller coaster ride this year. Shares shed more than 35% of their value in the first quarter as sales slumped, tariffs hit the stock market, and controversy swirled around Musk. They staged a comeback in April and May after Musk said he would step back from Washington.

Shares are up 2% in recent trading Friday, and currently sit down 20% for 2025.

Shares of JBS advanced Friday morning in their New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) debut after years of complications for the Brazilian meatpacking giant to trade in U.S. public markets.

JBS shares, which have the ticker symbol “JBS,” opened at $13.65 on the New York Stock Exchange and recently were trading at $14.03, up 2%. The shares are dual listed with Brazil’s B3 exchange.

JBS, which is majority owner of U.S. poultry firm Pilgrim’s Pride (PPC), is the world’s largest meatpacker, with 2024 revenue of $77.18 billion and net income of $1.96 billion, according to a prospectus filed in April with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Both American meat producers and environmentalists had opposed JBS’ attempts to list in the country “because of concerns about corruption settlements, accusations of Amazon deforestation and its growing market share in the United States,” The New York Times reported last year.

However, CNBC reported that after President Donald Trump was re-elected last November, Pilgrim’s Pride donated $5 million to his inauguration committee, and the SEC subsequently approved its request to list on the NYSE.

U.S. equities slumped at midday on concerns of a possible wider Middle East war after Israel bombed Iran nuclear facilities, and Tehran responded with attack drones. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all were lower.

The fighting sent the price of oil soaring, and fears of higher fuel costs and travel disruptions drove down airline and cruise line stocks. Shares of United Airlines Holdings (UAL), Delta Air Lines (DAL), Carnival Corporation (CCL), and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) all tumbled.

Adobe (ADBE) shares sank when the software maker didn’t raise its guidance despite strong profit and sales.

Shares of Boeing (BA) fell for a second straight session following the deadly crash of one of its 787 Dreamliners in India. 

The jump in oil prices boosted shares of energy companies, including Diamondback Energy (FANG), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and Halliburton (HAL).

Shares of defense contractors Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Northrop Grumman (NOC) also advanced on the Middle East news.

Gold futures took off as the precious metal is seen as a safe-haven investment, sending shares of Newmont (NEM) and other gold miners higher. 

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose. The U.S. dollar was up on the euro, pound, and yen. Most major cryptocurrencies were lower. 

The states with the cheapest 30-year refinance rates Thursday were New York, California, Florida, Colorado, Connecticut, Texas, and Washington. These low-rate states registered refi averages between 6.87% and 6.98%.

Meanwhile, the states with Thursday’s most expensive 30-year refinance rates were West Virginia, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Kentucky, Hawaii, Wyoming, South Dakota, Rhode Island, Montana, and Alaska. These high-rate states registered refi averages between 7.10% and 7.13%.

Mortgage refinance rates vary by the state where they originate. Different lenders operate in different regions, and rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average loan size, and regulations. Lenders also have varying risk management strategies that influence the rates they offer.

Since rates vary widely across lenders, it’s always smart to shop around for your best mortgage option and compare rates regularly, no matter the type of home loan you seek.

National Mortgage Refinance Rate Averages

Rates for 30-year refinance mortgages have fallen for four days straight, completely reversing last week’s surge. Sliding another 5 basis points, the Thursday average is 7.04%—an improvement vs. the 7.32% May peak that was a 10-month high.

Back in March, however, rates plunged to a 6.71% average—their cheapest 2025 mark. And last September, 30-year refinance rates sank to a two-year low of 6.01%.

Refinance rates for 30-year loans dropped another 5 basis points Thursday, falling to a 7.04% average. That’s now a four-day retreat of 16 basis points, which reverses last week’s surge and leaves refi rates notably improved vs. a May peak of 7.32%, which was a 10-month high. Today’s average is the lowest reading we’ve seen since early May.

Given that 30-year refi rates sank as low as 6.71% in March, however, today’s rates remain elevated. The current average is also more than a percentage point above last September’s 6.01%—a two-year low.

Many other refi rates saw declines Thursday. The 15-year and 20-year refinance averages shed 5 and 10 basis points, respectively. Meanwhile, jumbo 30-year refi rates subtracted 7 points.

Shares of RH (RH) soared 20% in premarket trading Friday, a day after the high-end home furnishings retailer posted a surprise profit and announced steps to offset the effects of new tariffs.

The company formerly known as Restoration Hardware reported first-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $0.13, while analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha were looking for an adjusted loss of $0.07 per share. Revenue jumped 12% year-over-year to $814.0 million, slightly below estimates.

CEO Gary Friedman wrote in a letter to shareholders that RH was especially pleased with its performance in England and the rest of Europe.

Friedman also said that the company was maintaining its full-year guidance despite “the speculative and uncertain outcome related to tariffs and the macroeconomic environment,” including a weak housing market. Friedman explained that in response, RH was “delaying the launch of the new concept that was planned for the second half of 2025 to the Spring of 2026 when there is more certainty regarding tariffs.” In addition, the company will continue to shift sourcing out of China, and “resourced a significant portion of our upholstered furniture to our own North Carolina factory.”

Friedman noted that because the tariffs have disrupted global shipments and resourcing, it is reducing its revenue outlook by 6 percentage points in the current quarter. However, the company anticipates making that up in the second half of the year. RH sees 2025 revenue up 10% to 13%. 

Shares of RH have lost more than half their value this year entering Friday trading.

Merck (MRK) has received the go-ahead to expand use of its blockbuster cancer drug, Keytruda.

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved Keytruda’s use for adults with resectable locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma whose tumors express the protein PD-L1. 

The study’s overall principal investigator, Dr. Ravindra Uppaluri, said the approval “represents a potentially significant shift in how we manage this disease.” Dr. Uppaluri added Keytruda “has been shown to reduce the risk of recurrence, progression, or death by 30%, compared with standard of care adjuvant chemoradiotherapy or radiotherapy alone.”

Merck noted that it’s estimated that in 2025, there will be approximately 72,680 new cases of head and neck cancer diagnosed, and more than 16,680 deaths from the disease.

Keytruda is the company’s best-selling drug, with first-quarter revenue of $7.2 billion, making up nearly half of its total sales.

Entering Friday trading, shares of Merck were down about 18% year-to-date.

U.S. airline shares are dropping Friday in premarket trading after oil prices spiked and flights were disrupted as attacks on Iran’s nuclear program and military leadership sparked worries of a broader Middle East conflict.

Shares of American Airlines (AAL), Delta Air Lines (DAL), United Airlines (UAL), Southwest (LUV), Alaska Air Group (ALK), and JetBlue Airways (JBLU) were down between 3% and 5% in premarket trading Friday. 

According to reports, several Middle East nations had shut their airspace following the attacks. Among them were Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, and Syria, according to Bloomberg.

According to PYOK, a blog that covers the airline industry, Delta Air Lines and United Airlines “abruptly diverted Tel Aviv-bound flights back to the US on Thursday night” after Israel’s attacks.