Written by Steven Dooley, Head of Market Insights, and Shier Lee Lim, Lead FX and Macro Strategist
Dollar consolidates as markets weigh Trump tariff comments
The greenback traded mixed against major currencies as markets digested US President Trump’s comments on potential tariffs and mixed US employment data.
USD held below the 104.00 level on DXY Index, with momentum suggesting continued range-bound trading ahead of this week’s US inflation data.
The euro approached 1.0900 before softening towards 1.0840 during NY trading, with strong technical resistance limiting upside potential.
Asian currencies showed limited movement, with USD/JPY flat, USD/SGD weakened 0.2%, while USD/CNH gained a modest 0.1%.
US equities finished positive with the S&P 500 rising 0.55% to 5770 and Nasdaq gaining 0.70% to nearly 18200, as Fed Chair Powell maintained an optimistic economic outlook despite the mixed employment report.
Market participants will be watching for this week’s meeting between US and Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia.
Economic data to drive Dollar direction
The US dollar will be in focus this week with key inflation data scheduled for release, which could influence Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is due on Wednesday, which will be closely watched by market participants for signs of inflation trends. This will be followed by Producer Price Index (PPI) figures on Thursday.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report on Wednesday will provide insight into the US labor market conditions, potentially affecting dollar sentiment.
In Europe, industrial production data is scheduled for release on Friday, which may impact the euro.
The Bank of Canada will make its rate announcement on Thursday, likely influencing CAD movements against major currencies.
Several Asian economies will release important data, with Japanese GDP figures due on Monday.
The UK will publish monthly GDP and industrial production numbers on Friday, which could drive GBP volatility to close the week.
Aussie left behind as commodities gain on tariff worries
The AUD/USD was weaker on Friday even as commodities made further gains with the Aussie’s relationship with the commodity complex continuing to wax and wane in recent months.
The Aussie remains broadly flat in 2025 despite a more than 18% rally in the World Commodity Index since forming a bottom in September last year. The World Commodity Index is up 7.0% in 2025.
Notably, the AUD/USD’s rolling one-month correlation, at -0.105, signals an almost complete lack of relationship between the Aussie and the commodity space. (A reading of 1.0 signals perfect correlation while a reading of -1.0 signals a perfect negative correlation. A reading of zero shows no correlation.)
For now, markets are still being driven by tariff news, with commodities in demand as businesses try to front-run tariffs. For example, US lumber prices are at 30-month highs and copper at 10-months highs with threats of tariffs on both commodities driving activity.
However, this demand might not last and worries about flagging demand could be the driver of a weaker Australian dollar, with the AUD/USD still in a clear long-term downtrend, as signalled by the downward pointing 200-day moving average.
Aussie retreats as China CPI contracts
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
The Dividend Aristocrats are a group of 69 companies in the S&P 500 Index that have increased their dividends for 25+ consecutive years.
Within the Dividend Aristocrats are various types of stocks with differing yields. Some of the Dividend Aristocrats have higher yields, but these high-yielders tend to grow their dividends at a lower rate each year.
At the same time, there are Dividend Aristocrats with low yields. While these may look unappealing on the surface, they often provide higher dividend growth levels from year to year. An example is Brown-Forman (BF.B), a Dividend Aristocrat that has increased its dividend for 41 consecutive years.
There are currently 69 Dividend Aristocrats, including Brown-Forman. You can download an Excel spreadsheet of all 69 Dividend Aristocrats (with metrics like dividend yields and price-to-earnings ratios) by clicking the link below:
Disclaimer: Sure Dividend is not affiliated with S&P Global in any way. S&P Global owns and maintains The Dividend Aristocrats Index. The information in this article and downloadable spreadsheet is based on Sure Dividend’s own review, summary, and analysis of the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) and other sources, and is meant to help individual investors better understand this ETF and the index upon which it is based. None of the information in this article or spreadsheet is official data from S&P Global. Consult S&P Global for official information.
Brown-Forman has paid a dividend for 80 years. Thanks to its defensive business model, the company typically provides high dividend increases each year, even during recessions.
This article will discuss Brown-Forman’s growth prospects, valuation, and outlook.
Business Overview
Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Whiskey got its start all the way back in 1865 when Jack Daniel purchased Cave Spring Hollow. The following year, he registered the Jack Daniel Distillery, which is today America’s oldest registered distillery.
Brown-Forman has a large product portfolio focused on whiskey, vodka, and tequila. Its most famous brand is its flagship, Jack Daniel’s whiskey. Other popular brands include Herradura and El Jimador tequila and Finlandia vodka.
Brown-Forman reported revenues of $1.1 billion for its third quarter (fiscal 2025) earnings results. The company’s third quarter earnings saw a 1% decline in Q2 net sales to $1.1 billion, though organic sales grew 3%. Operating income rose 1% to $341 million, and EPS increased 9% to $0.55. For the first half of fiscal 2025, net sales dropped 5% to $2 billion, operating income fell 7% to $622 million, and EPS declined 3% to $0.96. CEO Lawson Whiting expects growth in the second half of the year despite economic challenges.
Sales declines were driven by the divestitures of Finlandia and Sonoma-Cutrer, along with lower volumes across key markets. Whiskey sales remained stable due to Woodford Reserve and Old Forester, but Tequila and ready-to-drink products saw declines. U.S. net sales fell 7% due to weaker Jack Daniel’s and Korbel sales, while international and emerging markets showed mixed performance.
Gross profit declined 8% due to high inventory and cost fluctuations, but lower expenses helped offset losses. Brown-Forman increased its dividend for the 41st consecutive year. The company expects 2%-4% organic growth in net sales and operating income but remains cautious about economic and geopolitical risks.
Brown-Forman has a strong growth track record; the company even increased its earnings-per-share during the last financial crisis, as demand for alcohol is not especially cyclical. Historical earnings-per-share were driven by a combination of several factors, including revenue growth, rising margins, and the impact of a declining share count.
Because Brown-Forman owns strong brands and is active in the super and ultra-premium alcoholic beverages markets, which see consistent market growth, Brown-Forman should be able to keep its revenue growth going forward.
This has been an important growth factor for Brown-Forman in the past. Brown-Forman’s Jack Daniels brand and its American super-premium whiskeys continue to grow around the globe.
Higher overall sales allow for margin increases due to better economies of scale, which makes the company more efficient overall, and positively impacts its net earnings growth rate.
In addition, Brown-Forman has aggressively repurchased shares in the past decade, which adds some additional growth to its bottom line. Going forward, there is plenty of growth potential left as the company further expands its product line inside and outside its flagship Jack Daniels brand.
Furthermore, the company will purchase growth through acquisitions, for example, its recent purchase of the Diplomático Rum brand. This purchase launched Brown-Forman into the growing super-premium+ rum category. Diplomático Rum is a super-premium rum from Venezuela and is distributed in over 100 countries.
We are forecasting 6% annual earnings-per-share growth over the next five years.
Competitive Advantages & Recession Performance
Brown-Forman has many competitive advantages. Its famous brands yield significant pricing power. Because of its global scale, it has a highly profitable business with low manufacturing and distribution costs. These qualities help Brown-Forman generate consistently high returns on invested capital.
Brown-Forman is also very resistant to recessions. This is typical among alcohol stocks, as their products tend to be consumed in greater volume when economic times are tough. One could argue that alcohol manufacturers perform well during recessions.
Brown-Forman’s earnings-per-share through the Great Recession are shown below:
2007 earnings-per-share of $0.76
2008 earnings-per-share of $0.77 (1.3% increase)
2009 earnings-per-share of $0.82 (6.5% increase)
2010 earnings-per-share of $0.95 (15.9% increase)
As you can see, the company grew its earnings per share every year through the Great Recession. This rare accomplishment demonstrates the company’s defensive business model.
Spirits manufacturers such as Brown-Forman are among the most recession-resistant businesses.
Valuation & Expected Returns
Based on our estimate for 2025 earnings-per-share of $1.80 and a current share price near $36, Brown-Forman shares are currently trading at a P/E ratio 20.
This is a fair multiple, even considering the strength of Brown-Forman’s business. We estimate a fair value P/E ratio of 22.
If shares were to increase to 22 times earnings, this implies the potential for a 1.5% valuation tailwind over the next five years. On this basis, the valuation appears fair.
A strong earnings growth rate of 6% and 2.5% dividend yield will help boost shareholder returns. Overall, we estimate annual returns of 10% over the next five years.
Final Thoughts
Brown-Forman has a dominant position in its core product categories. Its flagship Jack Daniel’s brand should continue to lead the whiskey industry, with high growth from its smaller whiskey brands and tequilas. Emerging markets are also an appealing growth catalyst, and of course, the dividend growth streak is enviable.
Brown-Forman is a good example of a great business trading at an exceptionally fair valuation. The company has a solid dividend and very strong business, the shares look particularly compelling for purchase right now.
Additionally, the following Sure Dividend databases contain the most reliable dividend growers in our investment universe:
If you’re looking for stocks with unique dividend characteristics, consider the following Sure Dividend databases:
The major domestic stock market indices are another solid resource for finding investment ideas. Sure Dividend compiles the following stock market databases and updates them monthly:
Thanks for reading this article. Please send any feedback, corrections, or questions to [email protected].
Maybe we should follow Buffett’s advice and be greedy now when others are fearful.
Editor’s Note: Many investors are feeling bearish on the market right now. Since the late 1980s, the percentage of bearish investors in the survey has surpassed 60% only six times before: twice in late 1990, twice during the 2008 financial crisis, and twice during 2022’s red-hot inflation plight.
Every previous occasion that investor sentiment was as negative as it is today, stocks were in the process of bottoming after a crash. Then they proceeded to soar over the next 12 months. Average forward 12-month returns? Nearly 30%!
This data doesn’t mean stocks are guaranteed to soar over the next 12 months.
But my InvestorPlace colleague Luke Lango is joining us today to explain why he believes it is a noteworthy data point that suggests maybe we should be greedy now when others are fearful.
Take it away, Luke…
You’ve probably heard Warren Buffett’s famous saying: “Be greedy when others are fearful.”
Others are certainly fearful right now. According to the weekly American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) survey, ~60% of individual investors are feeling bearish on the market right now.
Let’s put that number in context… The AAII has been conducting this survey since the late 1980s. In that time, the percentage of bearish investors in the survey has surpassed 60% only six times before. We saw surges like this twice in late 1990, twice during the 2008 financial crisis, and twice during 2022’s red-hot inflation plight.
In other words, investor sentiment is historically negative right now.
Who can blame them?
We’re in the midst of the biggest global trade war in nearly a century. Layoff announcements last month spiked to their highest level since July 2020, surging 245% to 172,017. Consumer sentiment is crashing, -9.8% from January, according to the University of Michigan’s survey. Federal spending cuts are rattling the job market. One estimate for U.S. GDP growth has plunged from +2.3% last quarter to -2.8% this quarter.
Things look bleak right now. No wonder investors feel so bearish.
But history suggests that when investors are feeling this bearish, it is always a good time to be buying stocks…
Bearishness Can Be a Contrarian Indicator
In late 1990, when the number of bearish investors spiked above 60% in the AAII’s weekly survey, the stock market was in the final innings of a big crash. Between mid-July and mid-October 1990, the S&P 500 lost ~18%. Then, over the next 12 months, the index rose more than 20%.
In late 2008 and early 2009, when the number of bearish investors again spiked above 60%, the market was in the final innings of another big crash. Stocks plunged around 30% between mid-October and mid-March – but soared more than 60% higher over the next 12 months.
In late 2022, when the number of bearish investors most recently spiked above 60%, the stock market was – you guessed it – in the final innings of a crash. Between mid-August and September’s end that year, stocks slid more than 16%. Over the next 12 months, the market rallied about 20%.
In other words… every previous occasion that investor sentiment was as negative in the AAII’s weekly survey as it is today… stocks were in the process of bottoming after a crash. Then they proceeded to soar over the next 12 months.
Average forward 12-month returns? Nearly 30%!
The Final Word
Of course, this data doesn’t mean stocks are guaranteed to soar over the next 12 months.
But it is a noteworthy data point that suggests maybe… just maybe… we should follow Buffett’s advice and be greedy now when others are fearful.
The S&P 500 is currently languishing right around its ‘ultimate’ support level: the 200-day moving average. If the market bounces here, we think that would be a strong buy signal.
As for which stocks to buy on the rebound, we like AI stocks a lot. Those assets have enjoyed quite strong and steady growth for the past two years.
The Global X Artificial Intelligence and Technology ETF (AIQ) is a good proxy for the industry at large. And from March 2023 to today, it has risen more than 40%.
We think there will continue to be strong growth in that sector moving forward.
But we like a specific subset of stocks even more.
Learn more about those breakout stocks before they roar higher.
At Sure Dividend, we often discuss the merits of Dividend Aristocrats. We believe this exclusive group of stocks has strong brands, consistent profits even during recessions, and durable competitive advantages. These qualities allow Dividend Aristocrats to raise their dividends every year, regardless of the economy’s state.
Of the ~505 stocks comprising the S&P 500 Index, just 69 qualify as Dividend Aristocrats. You can download a copy of the full list of all 69 Dividend Aristocrats, complete with metrics like dividend yields and P/E ratios, by clicking on the link below:
Disclaimer: Sure Dividend is not affiliated with S&P Global in any way. S&P Global owns and maintains The Dividend Aristocrats Index. The information in this article and downloadable spreadsheet is based on Sure Dividend’s own review, summary, and analysis of the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) and other sources, and is meant to help individual investors better understand this ETF and the index upon which it is based. None of the information in this article or spreadsheet is official data from S&P Global. Consult S&P Global for official information.
We individually review all the Dividend Aristocrats each year. The next in the series is The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM).
J.M. Smucker has a long history of dividend growth, having raised its dividend for 28 years in a row. This article will discuss the significant factors for J.M. Smucker’s long dividend history and outlook.
Business Overview
J.M. Smucker has been in business for more than 100 years. It was founded in 1897 at a small cider mill in Orrville, Ohio, in the 19th century.
Today, J.M. Smucker has a market capitalization of $12.5 billion and generates more than $8.2 billion annual revenue. It is a packaged food and beverage company that owns well-known brands such as Smucker’s, Jif, Folgers, and so on. The company also owns a pet food business with brands such as Milk-Bone and 9Lives.
In late February, Smucker’s reported (2/27/25) results for the third quarter of fiscal 2025. The company reported net sales down 2% to $2.2 billion due to divestitures and acquisitions. Adjusted EPS rose 5% to $2.61, though a $6.22 per share net loss was recorded due to impairment charges. Operating cash flow fell to $239.4 million, impacted by higher working capital needs and tax timing.
Gross profit grew 7%, driven by pricing and cost efficiencies, but operating income declined due to impairment charges. Coffee sales rose 2% on higher pricing, while pet food and Sweet Baked Snacks saw declines of 9% and 7%, respectively, due to lower demand and contract manufacturing losses. Supply chain disruptions also affected performance.
Smucker updated its fiscal 2025 outlook, projecting a 7.25% sales increase and adjusted EPS of $9.85–$10.15. Free cash flow is expected at $925 million. The company focuses on cost control and growth strategies to drive long-term shareholder value.
Growth Prospects
J.M. Smucker’s industry isn’t growing fast, as demand for food is not growing too much based on economic development. Instead, food consumption is generally growing a little less than economic output, as it is mostly tied to population growth. Still, J.M. Smucker can generate growth in different ways, despite being active in a lower-growth industry.
Acquisitions have been a major source of business growth for the company in the past.
The company regularly acquires smaller companies that are then benefitting from J.M. Smucker’s sales network. On top of that, the company is able to capture synergies when it comes to administration and other areas, which drives the profitability of the companies J.M. Smucker acquires.
As an example, on November 7th, 2023, Smucker’s completed the acquisition of Hostess Brands (TWNK) in a cash-and-stock deal with value of $5.6 billion, which includes debt. Hostess Brands has many sweet baked goods brands, which will expand the product portfolio of Smucker’s and create synergies. However, the deal value is about 13.2 times EBITDA of Hostess Brands, after the expected synergies have been taken into account.
In the long run, we believe that current margin headwinds from rising commodity prices will wane, or that the company will fully pass on those rising costs to consumers. Some organic business growth, some M&A, and the impact of share repurchases should allow J.M. Smucker to grow its earnings-per-share by around 4% a year in the long run, we believe.
J.M. Smucker is not the largest player in the food and beverages space by far, but it is among the leading players in the active segments, such as coffee sold at retailers, peanut butter and other breakfast spreads, pet food, and so on.
J.M. Smucker’s brands are well-known and liked among consumers, thus it is not very likely that new market entrants will disrupt the company’s core business.
A major advantage for J.M. Smucker is its outstanding recession resilience. While consumers do cut back on their spending during economic downturns, they typically do so in discretionary areas—autos, electronics, apparel, and so on. This is why J.M. Smucker and most of its peers have outperformed during recessions in the past.
The company’s earnings-per-share performance during the Great Recession is below:
2007 earnings-per-share of $3.15
2008 earnings-per-share of $3.77 (20% increase)
2009 earnings-per-share of $4.37 (16% increase)
2010 earnings-per-share of $4.79 (10% increase)
We see that J.M. Smucker not only managed to grow its earnings-per-share during every year of the Great Recession but also generated a very compelling average growth rate of 15% in that time frame—barely any other company has managed to perform so well during the crisis.
The same held true during the pandemic, as J.M. Smucker also managed to grow its earnings-per-share by 14% in 2020 when the economy was suffering from lockdowns and other COVID measures.
J.M. Smucker’s recession resilience is one of its biggest advantages, making it a suitable choice from a risk perspective.
Valuation & Expected Returns
Using the current share price of ~$117 and the midpoint for earnings guidance of $8.50 for the year, J.M. Smucker trades for a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.7. Given the company’s strong recession performance, and an overly strong growth outlook, we feel that a target price-to-earnings ratio of 16 is appropriate. This is also roughly in line with the company’s 10-year historical average.
As a result, J.M. Smucker is slightly undervalued. An expanding P/E multiple could add 3.5% to SJM’s annual returns over five years. Aside from changes in the price-to-earnings multiple, future returns will be driven by earnings growth and dividends.
We expect 4% annual earnings growth over the next five years. In addition, J.M. Smucker stock currently has a dividend yield of 3.7%.
Total returns could consist of the following:
4% earnings growth
3.5% multiple expansion
3.7% dividend yield
J.M. Smucker is thus expected to return around 11.2% annually through 2030. This is a solid anticipated rate of return, high enough to warrant a buy recommendation.
Final Thoughts
J.M. Smucker is a quality company with a strong dividend growth track record and an outstanding ability to withstand recessions.
Shares are trading slightly below our fair value estimate, leading to high double-digit expected total returns. The current dividend yield is solid and looks safe, but we rate J.M. Smucker a buy right now because of the expected total returns of about 11.2% over the coming years.
Additionally, the following Sure Dividend databases contain the most reliable dividend growers in our investment universe:
If you’re looking for stocks with unique dividend characteristics, consider the following Sure Dividend databases:
The major domestic stock market indices are another solid resource for finding investment ideas. Sure Dividend compiles the following stock market databases and updates them monthly:
Thanks for reading this article. Please send any feedback, corrections, or questions to [email protected].
Editor’s note: “2025: The Defining Year for Autonomous Vehicle Adoption” was previously published in February 2025 with the title, “Autonomous Vehicles: Why 2025 Will Usher in the Self-Driving Car.” It has since been updated to include the most relevant information available.
The future isn’t coming—it’s already here.
Big Tech firms, for example, are spending billions of dollars to develop new AI applications. But thus far, many of those projects are still in development. Therefore, outside of bots like ChatGPT, folks like you and me have largely yet to witness the change that is AI.
But one technological transformation happening right now is already quite tangible: autonomous vehicles (AVs), or self-driving cars.
Now, I know many folks might be skeptical of 2025 truly being the year this ground-breaking technology finally goes mainstream. After all, self-driving cars have spent years stuck in a cycle of hype, delays, and skepticism. Many believed they were always “five years away” from reality. But in 2025, that changes.
Over the past year, companies at the heart of this industry have made consistent and stunning progress. And now that Donald Trump is back in the White House for a second term, the regulatory landscape is beginning to shift in a highly favorable direction.
That disruption isn’t a distant dream. It’s happening now.
Autonomous vehicles are on track to turn the global transportation services market – estimated to be worth more than $7 trillion – on its head; and the profit potential in this space is absolutely massive.
The companies leading this revolution are making history, and investors who position themselves early stand to reap massive rewards.
That’s why I just put together a brand-new, research-driven presentation breaking down the biggest opportunities in the self-driving car space—and how you can profit. (Click here to check out that video.)
The AV Experience
Let me share a personal experience that illustrates why I’m so confident about the AV Revolution unfolding right now. Rather than making predictions, I’ll show you exactly what these vehicles can already do.
Recently, I was flying back from a work trip into Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport. It was late. My wife and kids were asleep. So, I fetched a ride from a ride-hailing app. The car arrived. It took me to my home in the suburbs. Dropped me off.
It was a typical ride-hailing experience.
Except for one critical detail…
There was no driver.
The car that picked me up from the airport, drove me through Phoenix, and dropped me off at my house had no driver.
It was a fully autonomous vehicle operated by Waymo, the self-driving unit at Alphabet Inc. (GOOG).
It’s been working on developing autonomous vehicle technology for over a decade now. For the past few years, it’s been quietly testing its technology through autonomous ride-hailing in Phoenix and a few other American cities. Folks in those areas can hail an autonomous Waymo and have it drive them from place to place. I bet many of you live nearby one of them and can try this yourself.
Waymo is currently delivering more than 150,000 autonomous rides per week in Phoenix, San Francisco, and Los Angeles.
That’s a lot of rides!
And they’re growing quickly. Just a few months ago, Waymo was only completing about 50,000 rides per week – meaning it tripled its ride volume in just a few months.
We think that number will triple in the next few months, too.
But we don’t find this technology so compelling based on popularity alone.
Did you know that Waymo’s self-driving cars are also proving far safer than their human-driven counterparts? The company’s autonomous vehicles have driven over 22 million miles. And in those 22 million miles, they have been involved in 84% fewer crashes with an airbag deployment, 73% fewer injury-causing crashes, and 48% fewer police-reported crashes compared to human drivers.
The Waymos have arrived, and they’re exceptionally safe.
Of course, the skeptics in the room may be saying that the firm is only operational in three cities. That’s far from being a “national” service.
But Waymo has plans to expand to 10 new metros in 2025, including Las Vegas, San Diego, Atlanta, Austin, and Miami. That means that by the end of the year, the company will be operational in 13 cities.
There are only 17 cities in the U.S. with 750,000-plus people. And by the time 2026 comes around, Waymo will be delivering rides in 75% of them.
It seems this is the year that Waymo goes national.
This Progress Is Widespread
Though, it isn’t just Waymo that’s swiftly making self-driving cars a reality.
Aurora Innovation (AUR), an autonomous trucking company, has partnered with several major firms like Paccar, Volvo, and Uber Freight to develop fully self-driving trucks. Another startup – Kodiak Robotics – is also focused on making autonomous big rigs.
Both are preparing to launch fully autonomous trucks on public roads in Texas later this year (without safety drivers). That means that in just a few months, Texans could see a self-driving 18-wheeler hauling goods from city to city. Aurora also plans to launch autonomous trucks in the Phoenix area soon as well.
Meanwhile, in China, Baidu (BIDU) has launched an autonomous ride-hailing service called Apollo Go. It appears to be just as big as Waymo, completing nearly 100,000 rides per week.
And late last year, Elon Musk unveiled the Cybercab and Cybervan, two fully autonomous vehicles – without steering wheels – that Musk sees as the future of Tesla (TSLA). Perhaps even more exciting, Tesla plans to launch its own robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, in June!
In fact, on a conference call with Wall Street analysts just a few weeks ago, Musk said that he also expects to expand that service to multiple cities by the end of the year.
Self-driving cars are here. They are spreading rapidly. And they’ll likely become a global ubiquity, possibly entirely replacing human-driven cars, trucks, and buses at some point.
This future may still seem many years away. But it’s already a reality in Phoenix, San Francisco, and Los Angeles. It will soon be a reality in parts of Texas, Georgia, Nevada, and Florida. And it may quickly become a reality all over… because in addition to all these technological developments, the regulatory backdrop of self-driving cars is changing for the better, too.
Reports have leaked that President Trump will work to ease the federal laws governing self-driving vehicles, making it much easier for companies like Aurora, Waymo, and Tesla to deploy autonomous cars across America on a massive scale.
Of course, the arrival of the Age of Autonomous Vehicles also means the arrival of huge opportunities in AV stocks.
The obvious picks in this space are Alphabet and Tesla. As we mentioned, the former owns Waymo, and the latter is about to roll out its own robotaxi program. If Waymo and Tesla’s Robotaxi scale and take over the global ride-hailing industry – estimated to be an $11 trillion market by 2030 – GOOGL and TSLA stock will be big winners.
But both companies have huge supply chains. And we think we’ve found some potential exciting investment opportunities therein.
We’re talking top-tier AV supplier stocks that could soar as self-driving stocks go mainstream. And we’ve put together a special presentation to explain what’s got us so bullish on these potential winners.
On the date of publication, Luke Lango did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.
P.S. You can stay up to speed with Luke’s latest market analysis by reading our Daily Notes! Check out the latest issue on your Innovation Investor or Early Stage Investor subscriber site.
YouTube creator MrBeast (whose real name is Jimmy Donaldson) has an estimated net worth of $1 billion from his content creation empire, according to an estimate by Celebrity Net Worth.
Donaldson has more than 500 million followers across his social media platforms.
Donaldson earned an estimated $85 million between June 2023 and June 2024 from his content and businesses, according to Forbes.
YouTube creator MrBeast—his real name is Jimmy Donaldson—has made millions of dollars from his career as a content creator. Known for stunts like spending 24 hours underwater or a week in a cave, Donaldson is the most-followed creator in the world, according to Forbes, with more than 500 million followers across his social media platforms.
Donaldson has an estimated net worth of $1 billion, according to an estimate by Celebrity Net Worth. Donaldson has his own production company, a streaming partnership with Amazon, a snack brand, a clothing line, and more.
Here’s how MrBeast built his wealth.
Content Creation
Donaldson earned an estimated $85 million between June 2023 and June 2024 from his content and businesses, according to Forbes. In a February 2024 interview with Time, Donaldson said each video makes “a couple million” each in ad revenue and brand deals. Brands pay between $2.5 million to $3 million just to get a shoutout from MrBeast, Marc Hustvedt, who manages Donaldson’s YouTube business, told Time.
Donaldson also told Time that everything he earns—about $600 million to $700 million a year—he reinvests back into his content. “I’ve reinvested everything to the point of—you could claim—stupidity, just believing that we wouldsucceed,” he said. “And it’s worked out.”
The 26-year-old creator has 371 million subscribers on his YouTube channel, “MrBeast.” Donaldson’s content earned nearly 9 billion views in 2024 and landed him the No. 1 spot on Forbes’ Top Creators 2024 list.
Donaldson has pulled off extreme stunts on YouTube like being buried alive for a week, spending a week in solitary confinement, surviving 24 hours in ice, and more. He also creates content where he pays other people to tackle challenges for money, such as spending 100 days in a circle to win $500,000 or spending 100 days in a nuclear bunker with a stranger for $500,000.
Donaldson has another channel, “Beast Philanthropy,” where 100% of the profit from ad revenue, sponsorships, and merchandise sales goes to charity. It features videos such as giving out $30 million worth of food, adopting 100 dogs, and giving away $1 million worth of toys.
Amazon Partnership and Reality Show
Donaldson also hosts a reality competition series called “Beast Games” for Amazon’s Prime Video. The deal with Amazon was valued at close to $100 million, according to Puck and Variety.
The series featured 1,000 contestants competing in challenges similar to Donaldson’s YouTube videos, for a chance at a $5 million cash prize. The show received 50 million views in just 25 days, and was Amazon’s second-largest series debut in 2024, according to Fast Company. The winner of the competition was a father of two who won $10 million—the largest prize for a reality competition ever, per People.
In September, five unidentified contestants on “Beast Games” filed a lawsuit against Donaldson and Amazon for mistreatment and neglect, sexual harassment, hostile working conditions, and more, according to Variety.
Businesses
Donaldson’s other businesses include a snack company, Feastables, and a line of MrBeast merchandise. He also had a virtual burger chain that partnered with restaurants around the country. However, Donaldson stepped away from the burger chainin 2023 amid legal struggles with the brand’s partner, Virtual Dining Concepts.
His snack brand, Feastables, was expected to bring in about $500 million in revenue in 2024, according to Donaldson’s interview with Time. The snacks are sold online by Amazon and at major retailers such as Target, Walmart, Safeway, and 7-Eleven.
The stock market is in disarray right now, to put it mildly.
This week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both temporarily lost their 200-day moving averages – a potential signal of a major market trend reversal.
Driving this negative price action are fears that the current administration’s policy changes – including federal spending cuts, tariffs, deportations, and more – could plunge the U.S. economy into a recession.
We understand and share those concerns. The odds of a recession and bear market are rising rapidly. Caution is warranted given these risks.
Just a few months ago, the economy was in great shape.
Unemployment was low. Job growth was high. Consumer spending was resilient. Real wage growth was positive and strong. Inflation was turning lower. Interest rates were dropping. Consumer and business sentiment were improving, and corporate earnings were running higher.
While most of those things remain true today, investors fear that President Trump’s policy changes will reverse a lot of those positive economic trends.
But such reversals would be the result of self-inflicted wounds. And the thing about self-inflicted wounds is that usually, you can stop imposing them at any point.
We can stop issuing tariffs and widespread federal spending cuts at any point. And it seems like the current administration is moving to gradually stop – or at least stall – some of these things.
Trump has now twice delayed some tariffs on Mexico and Canada and granted exemptions to a variety of sectors, like the auto industry. He also said that future job cuts in the government will be done with a “scalpel” and not a “hatchet,” implying more strategic, smaller cuts.
It seems the tide is turning at the White House. Radical change will become less radical. If that continues, it should ease Wall Street fears about a potential recession in the coming months.
That’s why we believe the odds of an economic recovery here are far greater than the odds of a meltdown.
But we also aren’t smarter than the market… so we will listen to its cues about where the economy and stocks could go. And based on our technical analysis, the market will offer a lot of information over the next two weeks…
What to Watch: the Nasdaq 100
The bellwether index we’re watching closely right now is the Nasdaq 100.
We view it as even more important than the S&P 500. That’s because it includes the world’s largest 100 tech companies. And since we live in a tech economy, those are the most important, most powerful companies in the world.
This week, as we mentioned, the Nasdaq 100 closed below its 200-day moving average – for the first time in over a year, signaling a potential major market trend reversal.
It has done the exact same thing precisely 11 times before since 1990.
All 11 times, the stock market was either on the cusp of a big rebound or a big breakdown – and which way it went depended on how stocks acted in the subsequent two weeks.
If the Nasdaq 100 played strong defense and stayed within 4% of its 200-day moving average over the subsequent two weeks, stocks always rebounded over the next 12 months, with average gains of over 25%.
This happened in early 1992, early ‘96, late ‘97, early 2004, mid-2010, late 2014, and late 2018.
But the outcome isn’t always so bullish…
A Make-or-Break Point for the Stock Market
Historically, if the Nasdaq 100 didn’t play strong defense and fell more than 4% below its 200-day moving average over the subsequent two weeks, stocks always slumped into a bear market.
This happened in early 1990 (right before the ‘90s recession), mid-2000 (right before the dot-com crash), early 2008 (right before the 2008 financial crisis), and early 2022 (right before the inflation crash).
In other words… according to the technicals… the stock market is at a make-or-break point right now. And how it acts over the next two weeks will tell us whether stocks soar or crash over the coming year.
If the NDX plays strong defense here and stays within 4% of its 200-day moving average over the next two weeks, stocks should soar.
If the NDX fails here, stocks will likely crash.
We are currently about 2% below the 200-day moving average.
We view the odds of an economic recovery as being significantly greater than the odds of a recession.
We also think the odds of the Nasdaq 100 staying within 4% of its 200-day moving average as being significantly greater than the odds of it breaking down.
Therefore, we believe it’s more likely that stocks soar over the next year – making this being a great buying opportunity.
So… why not buy?
If we’re wrong about this bull thesis, we’ll know within two weeks and adjust accordingly. Unwind positions. Grab some hedges. Look for protection. Play defense.
But for now, we think it is time to be aggressive.
It is time to buy the dip.
What does that mean?
Buy AI stocks. More specifically, buy the AI stocks that could reshape the economy.
Especially since all this new AI technology will inevitably lead to widespread job loss. Indeed, this is already happening.
Meta, Amazon, Salesforce, Microsoft, Intuit, Duolingo, Workday, Intel, Dell, Best Buy, Chevron, AMD, Klarna, Cisco, Activision Blizzard… All have either recently executed or are currently executing layoffs due at least in part to AI.
Make no mistake: This tech is a job-killer. And as AI becomes increasingly capable, the threat to human workers and their livelihood will only rise…
Which means that you need to invest in AI stocks – not just to make money in the stock market, but to safeguard your wealth against the looming AI Jobs Apocalypse.
That’s why I’ve put together a brand-new presentation on the subject, detailing what it means for the economy, the markets, and maybe even your money.
In some ways, it’s like a survival guide for a new AI-powered world – a Ted Talk of sorts – jam-packed with a ton of information that I think you’ll find very valuable in this new “Age of AI.”
On the date of publication, Luke Lango did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.
P.S. You can stay up to speed with Luke’s latest market analysis by reading our Daily Notes! Check out the latest issue on your Innovation Investor or Early Stage Investor subscriber site.
Recent housing data has pointed to a slow start to 2025, but recent improvements in interest rates have some economists cautiously optimistic about the key spring sales season.
Mortgage rates have fallen seven weeks in a row, encouraging more potential homebuyers to shop around.
Rising inventory levels could help build momentum in the housing market during what is typically the busiest season for home sales.
Despite a slow start for home sales in 2025, some economists and real estate professionals see promise for the busy spring homebuying season.
The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index fell 4.6% in January to hit an all-time low. Home affordability issues persist as homeownership costs continue to outpace income levels and mortgage rates remain elevated. However, that could change during the spring, which is typically one of the best times to sell a home, according to Realtor.com.
“I see the spring market as an opportunity to start new momentum due to the number of buyers waiting out the markets,” said Phil Crescenzo Jr., Nation One Mortgage Corporation southeast division vice president.
Mortgage Rates, Inventory Moving in the Right Direction
Falling mortgage rates are one reason for optimism, economists said. The average interest rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 6.63% this week, according to Freddie Mac. That’s the lowest since mid-December and the seventh consecutive decline.
Other factors are pointing toward a potential pickup in home sales. Notably, inventory is higher, giving browsing house shoppers more options to consider this year.
“This stability continues to bode well for potential buyers and sellers as we approach the spring homebuying season,” said Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sam Khater.
Demographic Trends Could Drive Season
Going into the 2025 spring home sales season, some demographic trends could also help spur the housing market. Recent housing data shows that homebuyers are becoming older, including first-time owners, who made up a record-low share of buyers in 2024.
“Millennials have reached peak age for marriage and children, both of which are catalysts for homebuying. In addition, more and more baby boomers retire every day. Retirement leads to a change in lifestage and lifestyle, which also corresponds to changes in where and how people live,” said Ali Wolf, chief economist at real estate data firm Zonda.
Editor’s Note: The market may be turbulent, but innovation never stops — and that’s exactly why InvestorPlace Senior Analyst Louis Navellier remains confident. Amazon recently unveiled Ocelot, its first quantum computing chip, joining Microsoft and Google in a race to dominate this emerging tech frontier… and the next big investing opportunity.
But let’s be honest — quantum computing is complex, and understanding its real impact on the market can be challenging. That’s why Louis is holding an urgent briefing on Thursday, March 13, at 1 p.m. ET… just one week before Nvidia’s big “Q Day” announcements. Click here now to register your spot for this free event.
Further, Louis and his team have put together a special series on quantum investing for his own e-letter… and he’s agreed to let us run one of those pieces here today.
“Generals always prepare to fight the last war, especially if they won it.”
French Prime Minister Georges Clemenceau supposedly said that during World War I.
The same applies to investing. Investors will often look at what worked before and assume it’ll keep working.
We’ve seen this happen with the dot-com bubble in the late 1990s. Investors threw money at any company with “.com” in its name, only for many of them to crash and burn. Then, in the 2000s, investors bet big on brick-and-mortar retail giants like Sears and JCPenney, missing the rise of e-commerce and Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN).
During the beginning of the AI Revolution, arguably the biggest technological shift of our time, some investors stuck with legacy tech stocks like Intel Corp. (INTC).
This was once an iconic American company. But take one look at Intel’s chart below. The chipmaker’s stock is down about 63% over the past five years.
What makes this drop even more shocking is the fact that all of Intel’s missteps happened as the AI Revolution picked up steam.
So, competitors like NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) came along and revolutionized the semiconductor industry and become the clear-cut leader of the AI race.
Intel was fighting the last war.
Meanwhile NVIDIA surged ahead, dominating the AI Revolution, thanks to its graphic processing units (GPUs), which proved to be far superior to CPUs (central processing units) for AI work. That’s when everything changed. All of a sudden, everyone doing AI was clamoring for NVIDIA’s chips, and the AI arms race was on.
As a result, few companies have profited from this profound shift more than NVIDIA. In my 40-plus years in this business, I’ve never seen a company as monopolistic as NVIDIA.
It’s why I went on record saying that NVIDIA is the “Stock of the Decade.” Its pace of innovation is unmatched.
But you have to wonder: How much longer can NVIDIA keep this up?
By the end of this decade, I predict the transistors in each of NVIDIA’s chips will be approaching the “atomic” level. That’s when the laws of physics will get in the way of making its chips any faster.
So, is NVIDIA fighting the “last war”?
I don’t think so.
I think NVIDIA plans to utilize quantum computing to dominate the next phase of the AI Revolution.
Now, you are going to start hearing more about quantum computing very soon. And that’s because, on March 20, NVIDIA will hold the first ever “Quantum Day” at their annual AI conference…
Or what I’m calling “Q Day.”
According to the company, it will bring together experts to consider what we should expect from quantum computing in the coming decades.
I believe this will be when NVIDIA makes its biggest announcement of the year…
And that announcement won’t just be great for NVIDIA. It’ll also be great for select “pure play” quantum computing companies that are partnering with NVIDIA.
Remember: The biggest gains will likely come from smaller “pure play” quantum computing companies.
These are the ones that could become the next NVIDIA.
So, make sure you block off your calendar for Thursday, March 13, at 1 p.m. Eastern. That’s when I’ll share all the detailsyou need to know about Q Day in a special summit – including my top pick, a small-cap stock protected by 102 patents with close ties to NVIDIA.
In the meantime, to understand what’s coming, I’ll explain the ins and outs of quantum computing, including how NVIDIA is getting in on the action. It’s important to understand what quantum computing is and how it works.
Plus, I’ll share two ideas for how you can profit.
Let’s dive in…
What Is Quantum Computing?
I want you to think about a maze for a moment.
A classic computer will run a simulation by choosing a path. It will start all over again when it hits a dead end in the maze. It will repeat this process again and again until it finds the solution.
But if you can teach the computer how to reason like a person, then it could take a more efficient approach. Theoretically, it could automatically weed out the obvious dead ends, for example, and optimize the simulations even further.
That’s what British mathematician Alan Turing had in mind when he laid the foundation for artificial intelligence by suggesting building a program to simulate a child’s mind. In other words, teaching it to “think.”
This level of reasoning is basically what we refer to when we’re talking about artificial intelligence.
But here’s where things get interesting, so stick with me.
What if you could test ALL paths of the maze simultaneously, giving you the correct answer in just a fraction of the time?
Then you’d really have something on your hands, right? That’s quantum computing.
The idea is simple: Solve hard problems much faster than regular computers.
This ability to exist in multiple states at once is the key. It allows quantum computers to generate many solutions at the same time. And instead of traditional bits, which are either 1 or 0, quantum computers use something called qubits, which can be 1 and 0 simultaneously – a property called superposition.
Now, I want to be clear that many of today’s technologies already use quantum mechanics. Atomic clocks… MRI machines… lasers… even the humble LED lightbulb rely on quantum mechanics to work. We’re not talking about some theoretical power or outright sorcery.
But what’s different today is that we’re finally reaching a stage where quantum states can be harnessed to perform computing tasks. Electricity went through its own “transistor moment” in the 1950s – leaping from the blunt task of driving bulky electric motors to the ultra-fine role of powering the advanced semiconductors that run in every modern computer.
Quantum computing is now ready to make that same jump.
In fact, we’re already seeing real-world breakthroughs…
Quantum’s Move to the Mainstream
For years, quantum computing was limited to government agencies and university research labs because the hardware was too big, too expensive, and too unstable for real-world applications.
But thanks to some key advances, that’s changing.
Big Tech companies like Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) and Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) are developing custom quantum chips that can perform computations in seconds that would take classic supercomputers thousands of years to finish.
There have been other advances in quantum computing, too. Ones that have the potential to bring this to market at a mass scale that researchers only once dreamed about…
Now, I promise I won’t bore you with any more physics or technical lingo. The critical thing to know is that recent breakthroughs are putting us closer than ever to bringing quantum computing out of the lab and into profit-making Corporate America.
Major governments, tech firms and institutional investors are betting big on quantum computing.
That’s because the implications are staggering:
Biopharma companies could discover breakthrough drugs faster than ever before.
Automakers could develop driverless car systems that really work.
Chemical companies will develop materials we can’t even imagine.
And that’s just the tip of the iceberg, folks. With quantum computing, we’re going to start solving problems we don’t even know we have.
And that brings us to the investment opportunity.
I’m Looking for the Next NVIDIA…
Now, as I mentioned earlier, I expect NVIDIA to begin the shift to quantum computing soon.
In fact, I predict a major turning point will take place on Thursday, March 20.
That’s when NVIDIA hosts its first-ever Quantum Day.
This is a big deal, folks.
My prediction is that NVIDIA will figure out a way to marry AI with quantum computing in a way no one has ever done before. We’re talking about the possibility of a new technological breakthrough that could affect industries worth a combined $46 trillion.
That means NVIDIA is still a solid “Buy” for long-term investors. That’s my Profit Idea No. 1.
But if you really want to make big gains, you have to start looking at the “pure play” quantum companies that NVIDIA and other Big Tech companies are partnering with. That’s my Profit Idea No. 2.
Louis hereby discloses that as of the date of this email, the Editor, directly or indirectly, owns the following securities that are the subject of the commentary, analysis, opinions, advice, or recommendations in, or which are otherwise mentioned in, the essay set forth below:
Dogecoin (DOGE) has been a fan favorite in the crypto market, experiencing massive surges and wild fluctuations over the years. As of today, Dogecoin is trading at $0.24, a slight 1.23% decrease in the last 24 hours. While it’s clear that the hype surrounding Dogecoin has slowed, its bull run may not be completely over just yet. However, experts suggest that now could be the perfect time to consider shifting your investment strategy. Rexas Finance (RXS), an altcoin with immense growth potential, is emerging as a more promising buy. Specializing in real-world asset tokenization, including real estate, gold, and artwork, Rexas Finance is set to disrupt the crypto market. RXS has captured investor confidence, with its final presale stage almost complete and over 90% of tokens already sold. A listing price of $0.25, positions it as a major player in the blockchain market. For those seeking long-term growth and higher returns, swapping DOGE for RXS could be the strategic move for 2025.
Dogecoin’s Future Still Looks Bright
Dogecoin (DOGE), currently priced at $0.24 may be seeing a dip at the moment, but it’s not done pumping just yet. Despite recent price fluctuations, Dogecoin remains one of the most recognized cryptocurrencies, with a solid foundation in the market. It benefits from high liquidity and a massive user base, which gives it resilience during market corrections. Additionally, the growing trend of altcoin adoption, alongside new integrations and use cases, could trigger renewed interest and further price action. As more businesses and platforms begin accepting Dogecoin for transactions, its utility could continue to drive demand, setting the stage for potential rallies in the future.
Rexas Finance: Transforming Investment Through Blockchain Innovation
Rexas Finance is revolutionizing RWA investment by leveraging blockchain technology to remove traditional barriers. By enabling global access to high-value asset markets, it empowers investors to participate in premium opportunities without requiring significant capital. Its fractional ownership model makes investing more inclusive and accessible.
The platform simplifies tokenization through the Rexas QuickMint Bot, allowing seamless asset digitization, while the Rexas Token Builder enables users to create custom tokens without technical expertise. Beyond asset tokenization, Rexas Finance offers a range of cutting-edge blockchain solutions. The Rexas Launchpad provides a secure, multi-chain platform for fundraising. GenAI utilizes artificial intelligence to generate unique NFTs. Rexas Estate is transforming real estate investment through fractional ownership, offering passive income opportunities with minimal upfront costs. By prioritizing accessibility and innovation, Rexas Finance is actively shaping the future of the digital economy. Its strong community presence on Telegram and Discord further cements its position as a leader in blockchain technology.
Rexas Finance Presale Surpasses $46.3 Million
Rexas Finance (RXS) continues to gain momentum, with its presale raising over $46.3 million in its final stage. The token price, which began at $0.03, has surged nearly sevenfold to $0.20, demonstrating strong investor confidence. Unlike traditional projects that rely heavily on venture capital, Rexas Finance follows a community-first approach, granting retail investors early access and an opportunity to share in its success.
Investor trust is reinforced by a successful CertiK audit, ensuring high standards of security and transparency. Listings on top data tracking platforms have expanded its visibility and upcoming launches on three major exchanges in 2025 are expected to drive further demand.
To celebrate its achievements, Rexas Finance is giving back to its community with a $1 million giveaway. Twenty lucky winners are set to each receive $50,000 as a token of appreciation for their early support. This initiative highlights Rexas Finance’s commitment to long-term growth and solidifies its standing as a dominant force in the evolving blockchain market.
In conclusion, while Dogecoin has potential, Rexas Finance (RXS) offers a more promising long-term opportunity with its focus on asset tokenization and impressive presale success. RXS is set to disrupt the market and offers strong growth potential for savvy investors.
For more information about Rexas Finance (RXS) visit the links below:
Disclaimer: The views and opinions presented in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of CoinCheckup. The content of this article should not be considered as investment advice. Always do your own research before deciding to buy, sell or transfer any crypto assets. Past returns do not always guarantee future profits.
