All posts by PARKERYL

Last week, InvestorPlace Senior Analyst Louis Navellier decided to sell GigaCloud Technology Inc. (GCT) from his Accelerated Profits portfolio. 

At first glance, the move seems surprising – like watching a chef throw out a perfectly cooked steak. GigaCloud was a fast-growing tech firm with a sizzling 30%-plus rate of return. Revenue surged 65% last year, and net profits rose to $125 million – a sixfold increase from two years before 

However, GigaCloud specializes in large parcel shipping. It uses software to help pool small shipments into larger ones to save transportation costs, and its core business involves connecting Asian manufacturers with U.S. resellers. 

That business is now in trouble. 

On February 4, President Donald Trump imposed 10% tariffs on all goods imported from China – temporarily stopping all postal service shipments while the details were worked out. A month later, these duties were raised to 20%. 

This will have a devastating effect on GigaCloud’s industry. Many Chinese exporters already run on razor-thin margins; a 20% surcharge on all goods will throttle their business, slashing demand for GigaCloud’s logistics services. Analysts have dropped GCT’s 2025 earnings estimates by 20% since January, and more pain is likely.  

GigaCloud now scores a “D” rating in Louis’s Stock Grader (Navellier subscription required) – about as appealing as a one-star Yelp review. 

The Los Angeles area-based logistics firm isn’t the only company that will struggle with rising U.S. tariffs. As Trump said in an interview with Fox News host Maria Bartiromo, America’s now going through a “period of transition” that could see “a little disruption.” 

So, this week, I’d like to talk about three other companies Louis has recently sold to protect his portfolio from further disruption. If you have these stocks in your portfolio, you might also want to consider reducing your exposure to these less appetizing picks… 

Waiting for the Shoe to Drop 

When most people think of UGG shoes, they might picture comfortable sheepskin footwear used by surfers and college-aged students. The brand has a cultlike following and is particularly popular with the TikTok crowd. 

The modern college campus uniform

Investors, on the other hand, will know that UGG is a part of the Deckers Outdoor Corp. (DECK), a footwear conglomerate with a portfolio of popular names, also including Hoka, Teva, and more. It’s one of many brand-aggregating companies that regularly buy and sell these “assets” to maximize efficiencies and increase profits. In 2013, for instance, Decker acquired Hoka to build a comfort running shoe line, complementing its UGG offerings. Two years later, it bought Koolaburra and bolted it to its UGG brand.  

These efficiencies worked exceptionally well during boom years. Louis added shares of this fast-growing firm in Growth Investor last yearas margins surged and profits rose at double-digit rates. 

However, the “eggs in the same basket” strategy cuts both ways. The rise in Chinese tariffs now threatens Deckers’ profitability, and Louis sold the stock last month. 

Consider the sheepskin that goes into UGG and Koolaburra shoes. Deckers took this expensive material and made it far more affordable to younger buyers by running almost its entire supply chain through just two Chinese tanneries. Its manufacturing is also focused in just two countries – China and Vietnam. 

That puts Deckers at a significant disadvantage to brands with American-based manufacturing like New Balance. Analysts have slashed first-quarter earnings estimates by 20%, and profits are now expected to decline 29% year-over-year to $0.58 per share. DECK shares were already quite expensive because of their previously high growth, so they have further to fall. 

Derailing a Turnaround Story 

For years, our next stock to sell was known as much for its controversy as for its clothing. The mall retailer relied on hypersexualized advertising aimed at teenagers, and the CEO once infamously quipped his brand was “only for cool people.” He resigned in disgrace in 2017.  

Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF) would eventually turn things around. The replacement CEO, Fran Horowitz, axed the company’s overtly sexual advertising and refocused the firm on a back-to-basics lineup targeted at 20-year-olds. Shares have returned 520% under her watch, prompting Vox to run a piece in 2024 explaining how the “once-maligned retailer quietly became a closet staple.” 

Rising tariff threats now threaten to derail Abercrombie’s turnaround. The apparel firm sources almost half of its production from Vietnam and China, and both countries face rising U.S. tariffs. Vietnamese officials are especially worried because their country runs one of the world’s largest trade surpluses with the United States – a factor Donald Trump has vocally criticized.  

That’s bad news for Abercrombie, which has historically relied on wide gross margins to offset its high overhead costs. Every 5% increase in its cost of goods will reduce net profits by 30%, and raising prices will prove tricky because cheaper alternatives to its “back to basics” lineup exist at rivals like Target Corp. (TGT). 

Louis also notes that ANF has seen a lack of buying pressure – a negative sign even when profits and sales are rising. He sold shares of ANF from Growth Investor last month, and I would recommend a similar action if you still have the apparel maker in your portfolio. 

Close to Home 

Finally, homebuilders are beginning to feel the pinch of U.S. tariff threats.  

On March 7, the Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index dropped 1.8 points to 71.6 – its first year-over-year decline in two years. Sixty-two percent of Americans now believe it’s a good time to sell a house, while only 24% think it’s a good time to buy. The survey blamed the decline on high mortgage rates and “consumers’ growing concerns about their own personal financial situations.” 

That’s impacting American homebuilders, especially those focused on single-family home construction like Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL). On February 19, the luxury homebuilder noted that lower-end market demand had softened, and that the overall spring selling season had declined from “solid” to “mixed.” Management plans to reduce housing starts of “spec” homes – the riskier type (without a specific buyer) where homebuilders construct on the speculation that it will easily sell for profit. 

Rising input costs could impact homebuilders further. Homebuilders currently import 70% of softwood lumber from Canada, because the U.S. does not produce enough timber for domestic consumption. In addition, the U.S. also imports: 

• 45% of copper, used in household wiring 
• 62% of household appliances 
• 71% of gypsum, used in drywall 

That means tariffs will have a significant effect on home prices. According to CoreLogic, current tariff rates will raise the average new home price by 5% to $422,000 this year. This figure will get worse as more tariffs are enacted.  

Toll Brothers’ recent earnings miss now downgrades the stock to a “D” in Louis’ Stock Grader system, and he sold shares from Growth Investor last month.  

Buying Stocks in Times of Panic 

Trump’s first round of tariffs in 2018 were tough on many importers. Toll Brothers itself lost 10% of its market value by the end of 2019, while Abercrombie shed 15%. Some apparel firms like Forever 21 and Victoria’s Secret parent L Brands did so poorly that they were forced to reorganize. 

But many of America’s top tech firms did well in 2018. Over the same period, we saw dozens of tech firms go up. 

• Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) soared 285%. 
• Krystal Biotech Inc. (KRYS) jumped 459%. 
• Enphase Energy Inc. (ENPH) skyrocketed 689%. 

That’s because high-growth innovators don’t usually care if there’s a 10% surcharge on washing machines or a 25% price hike on timber. 

Instead, they care about the big ideas that will power the next generation of technology. Artificial intelligence… biotech… renewable energy… companies in these hypergrowth il often succeed despite macro headwinds. 

Now, I know this week’s selloff looks ugly. And we might be at the start of an even greater decline. Only President Trump knows how far he will escalate his trade war. 

But investors seeking a way out should consider watching Louis’ latest presentation on a technology that could create the next round of Nvidia Corp. (NVDA)-like gains. 

The fact is, at some point, quantum computing will have its “ChatGPT moment.”  

It could happen at Nvidia’s Q-Day on March 20. But even if it doesn’t, you’ll want to get in on this before the crowd, and time may be running out… 

By the time the mainstream public catches on to quantum computing, the truly massive gains will already be made. 

That’s why Louis has been urging investors to position themselves early. 

And one way to do that is by investing in the small-cap quantum computing stock perfectly positioned to profit from Nvidia’s quantum push. This company holds 102 patents and already works closely with Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, and NASA. 

Don’t wait until the market fully catches on. Watch the free replay of Louis’s Next 50X NVIDIA Call  for all the details – before it’s taken down. 

Click here to watch now.

Until next week,  

Thomas Yeung  

Markets Analyst, InvestorPlace  

Gaining residency and moving to a new country can be the dream of a lifetime and you can do just that in Golden Visa programs available in countries around the world. It won’t be cheap, however.

Golden Visa programs require a significant economic investment into the country where you’ll be living, but they can be a great way to live abroad if you can afford it.

What Is a Golden Visa?

A Golden Visa allows you to gain residency in a country after making a large investment in the country’s economy. The amount of the investment varies by country.

Golden Visa investment options include real estate, business development, a bank deposit, government bonds, and investment funds.

Many Golden Visa programs include family members so you’re free to include them on your application.

What Countries Have Golden Visas?

More than 100 countries around the globe offer Golden Visa programs and more than 60% of EU member countries have active programs. Countries with popular Golden Visa programs include Greece, Portugal, Italy, Malta, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Australia.

How Much Do Golden Visas Cost?

The price of an investment into a Golden Visa program varies by country. Portugal’s Golden Visa program comes with a price tag as high as $500,000 Euros, Italy and Greece require investments of 250,000 Euros in their Golden Visa programs.

President Donald Trump announced a $5 million Golden Visa program for the United States in February 2025, called a Gold Card.

How Do I Apply for a Golden Visa?

If you want to apply for a Golden Visa, you must first decide on an investment in the country where you’re looking to gain residency. Will you buy real estate, make a business investment, or purchase government bonds?

You’ll also have to provide several documents, including a passport, health insurance, proof of your investment, and proof that you can support yourself financially. You’ll have to go through a series of background checks.

How long do you have to wait after submitting your Golden Visa application? You’ll receive a response within six months or less from most programs. Some applications are processed as quickly as a couple of months.

Not every country is swift with managing Golden Visa applications, however. Wait time for applicants to Portugal stretches to about two years.

The Bottom Line

An international retirement may be within your reach if you qualify for a Golden Visa and receive residency in the country where you’d like to live. You’ll have to spend a good deal of money, however. Golden Visas require making investments into the country that can range from hundreds of thousands of dollars to millions depending on the country you choose.

The investment can be real estate, government bonds, a bank deposit, or investment funds. A Golden Visa program may be just the way to gain residency in another country if this is something you can financially handle.

FedEx (FDX) is set to report fiscal third-quarter results after the closing bell Thursday, and analysts are mostly bullish on the shipping giant’s stock.

Of the 15 analysts who follow FedEx stock and are tracked by Visible Alpha, 12 call it a “buy,” two a “hold,” and one a “sell.” They have an average price target of $318.60 on the stock, more than 31% higher than Friday’s closing level just above $241.

Analysts expect adjusted earnings per share (EPS) to have risen 20% from a year ago to $4.64 and revenue to have edged 1% higher to $21.97 billion. Revenue declined year-over-year in eight of the previous nine quarters, with both FedEx and shipping rival UPS (UPS) experiencing diminishing demand after the pandemic.

Morgan Stanley Says FedEx Likely Had ‘Solid Peak Season’

Morgan Stanley analysts, who have an “underweight” rating and $200 price target on the stock, wrote this month that they believe FedEx had a “solid peak season but no major acceleration in underlying demand/macro trends.”

The analysts said they “see headwinds from an overall compressed peak season,” along with one more month of unwinding its U.S. Postal Service partnership. They also noted the likelihood that FedEx’s DRIVE program—which the company said is expected to create “permanent cost reductions” of $2.2 billion—would be “not as helpful as expected” in the third quarter.

Last quarter, the company missed estimates and said it planned to spin off its FedEx Freight segment into a standalone public company over the next 18 months. Citi analysts had said such a move could “unlock value.”

FedEx shares, which are down 5% over the past 12 months, closed last week at their lowest level in more than a year.

Is drinking on the rocks?

American young adults are consuming less alcohol than prior generations, and beverage-company executives have different ideas about what’s driving it: tough-but-temporary economic conditions or more enduring cultural change. Either way, they say, the industry is seeing shifts in buying behavior.

A Gallup survey released last year, for example, reported a higher likelihood that young adults will note health risks associated with alcohol—and drink less of it. Americans’ perceptions of alcohol have changed more significantly than the industry realizes, said Bill Shufelt, CEO of nonalcoholic beer company Athletic Brewery, at a UBS conference this week in Manhattan.

Nearly half of Americans have indicated on surveys that they want to drink less, Shufelt said, and that desire is particularly widely held among millennials and Gen Z, who he said are better-educated on health issues and have more alcohol-free options to choose from.

Half of millennials and 60% of Gen Z refrained from drinking for a week or more over a six month period in 2024, according to surveys conducted by global insights and data firm IWSR.

“These are probably big, big generational headwinds in perception out there that I think are just in the very early innings,” Shufelt said. “That message has not gotten through from consumers back up the chain yet.”

Morgan Stanley analysts earlier this month downgraded shares of Brown-Forman (BF.A; BF.B), which makes Jack Daniels, saying in a note that “we don’t expect the US spirits category to return to its historical 4%+ growth rate amid structural pressure from demographics (Gen Z drinking less), health/wellness/ moderation trends (including GLP-1 impact), and cannabis.”

For Some Younger Americans, It May Be More About the Money

Some of the reasons for changing tastes may be more transitory, Shufelt said, citing economic pressure and rising alcohol prices. He said legacy alcohol companies can still reach people, and alcohol—“a 5,000-year-old trend”—isn’t on the brink of becoming irrelevant.

Alcohol spending has fallen among younger Americans, said Lawson Whiting, CEO of Brown-Forman, at the UBS event. Health concerns aren’t the main reason this demographic is holding back, he said.

“If you’re 21, 22, 23 years old and you’re just coming out of college or whatever it might be, you’re pocket book is in serious strain,” Whiting said. Many consumers, he said, are cost-conscious and have been buying smaller quantities of alcohol as a way to save.

Michel Doukeris, CEO of Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD), the company behind Budweiser and Michelob Ultra, said the shift could be anomaly caused by COVID-19. He said his 22-year-old daughter attended part of college on Zoom, and consequently, asked him for advance about how to handle her first work happy hour.

“COVID was a very disruptive event that caught a generation between 17, 18-years old that today is [of] legal drinking age, but they’re not everybody,” said Doukeris at the UBS event. As people approach their mid-20s, he said, “we see a normalization of some behaviors.”

Since the pandemic, the cost of a domestic award flight has done nothing but rise—except at American Airlines (AAL), according to new research.

The average reward price for domestic economy flights across six big U.S. airlines has increased nearly 12 points more than the rate of inflation during that time, according to a report from IdeaWorksCompany.

The firm’s survey assessed “the most popular basic reward type offered” by American, Delta Air Lines (DAL), United Airlines (UAL), Southwest Airlines (LUV), Alaska Air (ALK), and JetBlue Airways (JBLU), finding that “reward payback”—the value provided per dollar spent on base fares—dropped overall by about half in 2025 from 2019. (It determined this by making hundreds of queries in February 2025 for comparable reward flights this June to October with distances of 251 miles to 2,500 miles.)

Over the past six years, the cost of an average domestic economy reward flight has surged, according to the report. At Southwest, for example, what cost rewards members 7,367 miles on average for a free flight in 2019 now costs 18,673 miles—a more than 150% increase. Delta (26%), JetBlue (25%), and Alaska (23%) also saw sizable jumps. United’s increase was more modest, at 9%.

An exception: An award redemption for an American domestic economy flight now costs 18,690 miles, 21% fewer than it did in 2019 (23,700), according to the report. American uses a dynamic awards pricing system, according to Gary Leff, proprietor of travel site View From the Wing, meaning “cheap domestic coach awards are plentiful.”

Formula One driver Max Verstappen stops for no one.

The reigning champion after winning his fourth straight Formula One World Championship title in 2024, the 27-year-old is set to kick off the 2025 Formula One season for team Red Bull in the opening race at the Australian Grand Prix on Sunday.

Verstappen makes millions from his career on the track: He was ranked both the highest-paid F1 driver in 2024 and one of the world’s highest-paid athletes by Forbes.

Verstappen has an estimated net worth of $200 million, according to Celebrity Net Worth. Here’s how Verstappen makes his millions.

Formula One and Endorsements

Verstappen was F1’s youngest-ever competitor when he joined F1 team Toro Rosso at the age of 17 in 2015. The following year, he became F1’s youngest-ever winner during his debut race for Red Bull. Verstappen became the first F1 champion from the Netherlands when he won his first F1 championship title in 2021, beating seven-time champion Lewis Hamilton.

Formula 1 drivers make money through their base salary, earn bonuses based on their performance on the track, and earn money from sponsorships and endorsements.

Verstappen earned an estimated $75 million in salary and bonuses in 2024, making him the highest-paid F1 driver for the third year in a row, according to Forbes. Verstappen earned $60 million in salary and $15 million in performance-based bonuses, per Forbes.

In 2023, Verstappen signed an endorsement deal with Heineken, as an ambassador for the Dutch beverage brand’s non-alcoholic beer, Heineken 0.0. Verstappen also has a partnership with sports video games developer, EA Sports.

Real Estate

The multi-millionaire F1 driver owns a penthouse in Monaco worth an estimated 16 million euros ($17.4 million U.S. dollars), according to Architectural Digest.

Editor’s Note: The market may be turbulent, but innovation never stops — and that’s exactly why InvestorPlace Senior Analyst Louis Navellier remains confident. 

Just days ago, a little-known quantum computing called D-Wave Quantum’s announced a breakthrough in the quantum computing space. As a result, quantum stocks surged, with some gaining double digits in a single day.

Now, quantum computing today is where AI was back in 2016. So, it is an exciting investment opportunity that you won’t want to miss out on.

But let’s be honest: Quantum computing is complex, and understanding its real impact on the market can be challenging. That’s why Louis Navellier held an urgent briefing this past Thursday just one week before Nvidia’s big “Quantum Day” announcements – which could be a game-changer for the industry.

Click here now to watch a replay of that event.

Today, Louis is joining us to share more about D-Wave’s breakthrough. Take it away…

First of all, I want to thank all of the folks who joined my Next 50X NVIDIA Call special summit on Thursday.

We covered a lot of ground, including…

• NVIDIA Corporation’s (NVDA) upcoming Quantum Day (Q Day) event.
• The revolutionary shift quantum computing will bring to AI.
• The single stock I believe could deliver a 50X return – like NVIDIA did once the AI Revolution took off.

You can check out the replay of the Next 50X NVIDIA Call right here.

And as it turns out, our timing was perfect with this event.

Because while NVIDIA’s Q Day is still a week away, quantum computing stocks surged on Wednesday on some fresh news that I need to share with you…

Why Everyone Is Talking About Quantum Supremacy

It’s not every day that a single announcement sends an entire group of stocks surging by double digits.

But that’s exactly what happened on Wednesday when a little-known quantum computing company revealed a stunning breakthrough that shocked the market.

The company – D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) – released a statement saying that one of its quantum computers completed a complex materials-science simulation in just 20 minutes.

In fact, it was a task that would have taken Frontier, of today’s most powerful classical supercomputers, nearly a million years to finish.

What’s more, the company claims it is the first problem of real scientific importance to be solved with quantum computing. The results were published in the peer-reviewed journal Science.

In other words, D-Wave has achieved what quantum researchers and folks in the industry call “quantum supremacy”… using the technology to do something useful that no classical supercomputer could do.

This is a big deal, folks. Because if you’ve been following along with our quantum computing coverage this week, you know that up until recently, this stuff was constrained to government labs and universities.

To briefly recap, quantum computing operates at the subatomic level, using cutting-edge technology like ultracold superconducting chips. Quantum computers perform calculations with quantum bits, or “qubits,” which encode information differently than classical computers. This gives quantum computers the potential to solve problems far too complex or time-consuming for even the best classical supercomputers.

In this case, D-Wave used an “annealing” quantum computer, which specializes in optimization problems. These types of quantum computers find the optimal or most efficient solution by rapidly exploring a massive number of possibilities simultaneously.

In its groundbreaking test, D-Wave partnered with an international team of scientists to simulate “spin glasses,” a type of complex magnetic material with critical business and scientific applications. The simulations were performed on both D-Wave’s Advantage2 prototype annealing quantum computer and on Frontier, a classical supercomputer at the Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

The results were astonishing.

D-Wave’s quantum computer completed the hardest simulation in just minutes, delivering accurate data on complex lattice structures and magnetic behaviors. As I mentioned earlier, the same simulation would have taken nearly 1 million years on the Frontier supercomputer – and it would have required more electricity than the entire world consumes in one year.

The bottom line is that it seems like this was practical, tangible proof that quantum computing is nearly ready for real-world use.

As a result, on Wednesday, D-Wave’s shares popped 11% on the news…

Another popular quantum stock climbed 16%…

And my No. 1 quantum pick jumped 10%.

D-wave’s shares got another boost Thursday after reporting fourth-quarter and year-end results for 2024, rallying another 18%.

For the year, it reported an adjusted net loss of $75.6 million, or $0.39 per share. That’s a decrease of $7.3 million, or $0.21 per share from the previous year. Revenue was essentially flat year over year, but bookings were up 128% over the previous year ($23.9 million vs. 10.5 million).

Now, the key quantum computing players in this space are quite small. Most of them are trying to build up revenue, narrow their losses and achieve critical breakthroughs to commercialize quantum computing – all at the same time.

That’s a tough feat to pull off, but the upside is worth it. Because quantum computing has the potential to:

• Help biopharma companies discover breakthrough drugs faster than ever before. 
• Automakers develop driverless car systems that really work. 

• Chemical companies to develop materials we can’t even imagine. 
• And so much more.

Quantum Computing Continues to Advance

D-Wave’s breakthrough isn’t an isolated event, either. Quantum advances are happening at a rapid clip, folks.

Earlier this year, Google announced its quantum chip, Willow, which can execute calculations millions of times faster than traditional supercomputers. (We covered that here.) Amazon also recently unveiled its Ocelot quantum processor, and Microsoft recently launched Majorana 1, another quantum computing milestone. (I gave an overview of these chips here.)

Each of these breakthroughs confirms something critical: Quantum computing is rapidly transitioning from theory to practical application.

Big Tech recognizes this. And so does NVIDIA, the undisputed leader in generative AI chips. In fact, it’s already moving aggressively into quantum computing – even before its Q-Day event:

• It launched CUDA-Q, a quantum-classical hybrid platform, to help bridge the gap between traditional computing and quantum. The platform is specifically designed to integrate quantum processing units (QPUs) with NVIDIA’s graphics processing units (GPUs). As such, it could be the bridge to NVIDIA’s future beyond this decade.
• It’s actively developing quantum simulation tools, giving developers access to quantum-like environments before real hardware is widely available.
• And major industry players are already lining up to integrate NVIDIA’s tech into their quantum programs.

NVIDIA knows quantum computing will become essential once traditional computing hits its limits later this decade. And that’s why I hosted my Next 50X NVIDIA Call summit on Thursday.

But here’s the thing. As this news from D-Wave demonstrates, quantum computing isn’t just the future – it’s happening right now.

And while I like D-Wave, it is NOT my No. 1 pick in this space.

On March 20, I expect NVIDIA to make a MAJOR announcement with my No. 1 pick. And I covered all the details you need to know in my Next 50X NVIDIA Call summit.

The Future Is Happening NOW

It’s important to understand that as more (and bigger) groundbreaking advances are made, so too will the headlines.

Quantum computing today is where AI was back in 2016, right before NVIDIA’s historic 7,000% surge to its peak.

Remember, when I came across NVIDIA in May 2016, this was well before ChatGPT came along. That didn’t happen until November 2022. Now, NVIDIA has returned more than 600% since then… but the reality is most people missed out on the 6,400% gains before that.

The fact is, at some point, quantum computing will have its “ChatGPT moment.”

It could happen at NVIDIA’s Q-Day on March 20. But even if it doesn’t, you’ll want to get in on this before the crowd, and time may be running out…

And by the time the mainstream public catches on to quantum computing, the truly massive gains will already be made.

That’s why I’ve been urging investors to position themselves early.

And one way to do that is by investing in the small-cap quantum computing stock perfectly positioned to profit from NVIDIA’s quantum push. This company holds 102 patents and already works closely with NVIDIA, Microsoft, Amazon, and NASA.

Don’t wait until the market fully catches on. Watch the replay of my Next 50X NVIDIA Call now for all the details – before it’s taken down.

Click here to watch NOW.

Sincerely,

Louis Navellier

Editor, Market 360

Louis hereby discloses that as of the date of this email, Louis, directly or indirectly, owns the following securities that are the subject of the commentary, analysis, opinions, advice, or recommendations in, or which are otherwise mentioned in, the essay set forth below: NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

The sell-off in stock markets this week brought back recession chatter, but that doesn’t necessarily mean one is coming soon.

A full-blown recession is certainly possible and seems likelier after this week, particularly if spending from more cautious U.S. consumers plummets and prompts employers to lay off workers. But right now, the more likely scenario seems to be weaker growth, according to several economists and market analysts. Rather than firing on all cylinders, the U.S. economy may rise at a lackluster pace instead—which isn’t great news but is far from a panic signal.

“We believe the economy will avoid slipping into recession,” Wells Fargo economists wrote in a research note, pointing to “solid fundamentals” such as healthy household balance sheets as a buffer.

Even so, they noted the economy has already “lost some steam in early 2025,” which, combined with tariff uncertainty and federal government job cuts, could take a toll. 

How Should You Think About the Stock Sell-Off?

The S&P 500 stock index officially fell into a correction—identified as a decline of at least 10% from a recent closing high—on Thursday, as investors grew increasingly concerned about President Trump’s unpredictable tariff announcements. The swiftness of the decline has been noteworthy—the benchmark index was trading at an all-time high just over three weeks ago.

The U.S. stock market rebounded on Friday with its best one-day performance of the year, but it wasn’t enough to keep the S&P 500 from posting a weekly loss for the fourth consecutive week as investors continue to fret about the potential economic consequences of the tariffs.

A steep drop in stock markets is a “classic recipe for a slower pace of spending by the wealthy, who drive household consumption,” Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the accounting firm RSM US LLP. When stock markets rise, the so-called wealth effect makes upper-income households feel wealthier and thus spend more, giving a boost to the rest of the economy. 

Lower stock prices have the opposite effect, and wealthier households are likely to tamp down their spending this quarter, Brusuelas said. However, the U.S. economy can absorb some slowing without entering an extended contraction.

“The current growth scare is overstated,” Brusuelas said. “My sense here: We’re just seeing a classic late-cycle business slowdown.”

He expects the economy to grow at an annual rate of 1.5% this quarter, weakening from the pace of 2.5% or more in the last few years. But that’s not unusual, he said, noting that growth dipped into negative territory at the start of 2022 before continuing to power through.

Tariffs Could Make Chances of a Recession Greater

The economy also faces risks over the next month as President Donald Trump weighs whether to proceed with tariffs on Canada and Mexico plus impose new reciprocal tariffs on goods from across the globe.

“If there are other tariffs that are put on, then we may need to take a step back and reassess the forecast on growth and consumption,” Brusuelas said, adding that the “waiting is the hardest part.”

For his part, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Thursday that he’s “not concerned about a little bit of volatility over three weeks.” The administration’s focus is on improving “the real economy” in the longer term, he said.

Satyam Panday, chief U.S. and Canada economist at S&P Global Ratings, sees a 25% chance of a U.S. recession in the next year as uncertainty takes a bite. 

“There’s an increasing risk that supply-side shocks from tariffs, decelerating immigration growth trends, and curbs on the federal government workforce will create a lasting negative feedback loop,” Panday wrote in a research note. 

The latest jobs report showed U.S. employers added 151,000 jobs in February, and the unemployment rate stayed low at 4.1%. But analysts and investors are increasingly brushing aside data they view as dated and looking ahead at whether they’ll deteriorate soon.

Slower Spending Could Be the Real Concern, Though

In recent surveys, consumers have said they’re feeling less confident about the road ahead. Companies ranging from American Eagle Outfitters to Delta Air Lines have flagged declined spending momentum. 

CEOs had been remarkably bullish after Trump’s election, raising hopes of a corporate investment boom, but that seems to have eased too. In its quarterly survey, the Business Roundtable said its CEO Economic Outlook Index returned to last year’s levels of 84 after rising to 91 following Trump’s victory in November.

“The survey results signal that our members are cautious about the next six months but also see opportunities to improve growth,” said Chuck Robbins, the CEO of Cisco and chair of the Business Roundtable.

A separate survey of economists from the American Bankers Association also cited rising downside risks, but it nonetheless forecasted GDP growth of 2.1% in 2025 and 2026. The group sees a 30% chance of recession this year and next.

“The consensus forecast for positive economic growth and low recession risk is based on the expectation that new tariffs won’t stay in place for all of 2025,” said Luke Tilley, chief economist at Buffalo, New York-based M&T Bank and chair of the ABA’s advisory panel of economists. “The longer the tariffs stay on, the more the risk of recession grows.”

UPDATE—March 15, 2025: This article has been updated with the latest information about the performance of the stock market.

The Senate passed a bill Friday funding the federal government through September, averting a government shutdown.

Senators voted 62-38, with 10 Democrats joining Republicans to put the bill over the 60-vote threshold needed to bypass a filibuster. The vote ended the possibility of the government shutting down Saturday after a stopgap funding measure was set to expire. The new stopgap bill then passed on a vote of 54-46. The bill now moves to President Donald Trump’s desk. He is reportedly expected to sign it.

This new bill clears the way for Republican lawmakers to hammer out a new federal budget that includes trillions of dollars in tax cuts.

The vote thwarted an effort by some Democratic lawmakers who had wanted to use a shutdown threat to curtail President Donald Trump’s mass firing of federal workers.

Some Democrats, including Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a representative from New York, had urged Senate Democrats to use the threat of a government shutdown as leverage to demand concessions from the majority GOP.

Ocasio-Cortez and other House Democrats, who nearly unanimously voted against the continuing resolution, argued that it empowered Trump and his influential advisor, Elon Musk, to continue their campaign of firing federal workers and canceling government grants and contracts, bypassing the authority of Congress to control the government’s spending levels.

The fizzling out of the shutdown confrontation removes one X-factor from a federal policy outlook full of uncertainty amid Trump’s rapidly changing trade efforts.

Update, March 15, 2025: This article has been updated to include the passage of the bill.

The stock market has been stuck on a roller coaster for months now, zooming up and down ever since November’s U.S. presidential election. 

But over the past few weeks, stocks have been experiencing a particularly painful rout, with the S&P 500 crashing more than 10%, the Nasdaq falling about 15%, and the Russell 2000 collapsing nearly 20%.

But amid this Wall Street chaos, we see a fantastic buying opportunity unfolding. 

In fact, we think stocks may have bottomed this past week – and they could soar from here over the coming months. 

There are four critical tenets to our bull thesis… 

The Stock Market Is Washed Out, But the Economy Isn’t

First, things feel washed out. 

As we mentioned, the major indices have taken a plunge, dropping between 10% and 20%. All three have now fallen into oversold territory. 

Meanwhile, valuations on a lot of individual stocks have dropped to 2- or 5-year lows. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index has crashed to one of its lowest levels in the last 50 years. And investor sentiment in the American Association of Individual Investors’ (AAII) weekly survey has only been this consistently bearish once before – back in March 2009. 

Across the board, things are just really washed out. When conditions are this dour, stocks can rebound furiously as they climb the proverbial ‘wall of worry.’ 

Second, the economic reality is not so bleak. 

We understand Americans’ concerns about tariffs, federal spending cuts, policy uncertainty, and their potential impacts on consumer spending and business investment.

But as of now, at least, those impacts are still contained. 

As we noted in yesterday’s issue, U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth is still positive at 2.3%. Consumer spending is steady. Unemployment is low at 4.1%. Inflation is falling, currently hovering around 2.8%. At about 4.3%, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, wage growth is strong and running above inflation. And as the fourth-quarter earnings season illustrated, corporate profits are still growing, with more than 75% of the S&P 500 exceeding consensus estimates. 

So… sentiment and market conditions are washed out, but the economy is not. This divergence is not sustainable. 

Either the economy becomes just as washed out, or sentiment and market conditions rebound. We don’t see the economy nose-diving anytime soon, and therefore, we think a rebound is coming.

Calling the Bottom

Third, multiple technical signals suggest this could be the bottom for stocks, as we’ve detailed over the past week. 

The Nasdaq 100 just fell below its 200-day moving average for the first time in a year. Similarly, the S&P 500 dropped below its 250-day moving average for the first time in a year. The market has become oversold, again for the first time in a year. 

All this happened this past week. And historically speaking, when these things have occurred before, the market usually went on to soar over the next 12 months, so long as stocks stabilized around these major technical levels… 

Which also happened this week. 

The S&P 500 fell multiple times toward the ultra-critical 5,500 level and never gave it up. It bounced every time. This past Tuesday, it bounced right above there and then did so again multiple times on Thursday. Then, stocks soared on Friday and – as of this writing – the S&P retook its 250-day moving average. 

Stocks are stabilizing exactly where they should. From a technical perspective, that tells us that the market has found a bottom and that stocks will soar over the next few months.