All posts by PARKERYL

Written by the Market Insights Team

Kevin Ford – FX & Macro Strategist

Tough times for central bankers

It’s Fed Day. The consensus is that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady for the second consecutive meeting. Markets are eagerly awaiting Chair Powell’s press conference, particularly his responses to questions on tariffs, trade policy, and politics. Investors are also keen to see if there will be any forward guidance on monetary policy.

Last week, the Bank of Canada (BoC) reiterated that, given the uncertainty surrounding tariffs, it cannot provide forward guidance. Following yesterday’s CPI data, it seems increasingly likely that the BoC will also hold rates steady at its next meeting. However, the outlook remains uncertain for both central banks. Preferred measures of inflation remain sticky, household and business survey data is concerning, the impact of tariffs on prices has yet to fully materialize in hard data, and economic growth is stalling—not just in Canada, but in the U.S. as well. Adding to the complexity is the ongoing debate over the Fed’s independence, fueled by political noise. The past three years have been anything but easy for central bankers, with challenges ranging from a trade war during Trump ’45 to a pandemic, historic inflation, and regional bank failures. The road ahead looks equally challenging for both Powell and Macklem.

In Canada, inflation was anticipated to rise following the expiration of the tax break, but the price increases turned out to be surprisingly broad-based. The annual inflation rate surged to 2.6% in February 2025, climbing from 1.9% in January. This marks an eight-month high, notably surpassing market expectations of 2.2% and the Bank of Canada’s forecast of 2.5%.

Notably, inflation rebounded sharply in sectors such as restaurants (-1.4% vs. -5.1% in January) and alcoholic beverages purchased from stores (-1.4% vs. -3.6%), driving a significant recovery in the food subindex (1.3% vs. -0.6%). Price increases also regained momentum in clothing and footwear (1.4% vs. -1.3%) and accelerated further in recreation, education, and reading (3.7% vs. 1.9%). Overall, goods inflation has outpaced service inflation, suggesting that the depreciation of the Canadian dollar has contributed to higher prices. The latest report highlights that inflationary pressures have remained persistent, with the recent tax break only temporarily concealing their full impact.

Meanwhile, in the absence of tariff-related noise, the Canadian dollar has slightly appreciated against the U.S. dollar, briefly trading below 1.43. Today, markets anticipate a slightly hawkish tone from Powell, which could introduce some volatility across asset classes.

Equity rout continues pre-Fed

Boris Kovacevic – Global Macro Strategist

Hopes of a continued equity rebound have stalled for now, with investors stepping away from risk assets ahead of today’s Federal Reserve (Fed) decision. The bar for rate cuts has crept higher, driven by concerns that inflation remains uncomfortably sticky. Selling resumed on Wall Street with the largest technology names being hit the hardest.

The S&P 500 fell, dragged lower by megacaps hitting their lowest levels since September. Meta officially turned negative for the year, becoming the last of the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks to erase year-to-date gains. The dollar is once again nearing its lowest level since October, having fallen against the euro and pound in yesterday’s session.

Market participants widely expect the Fed to hold rates steady, leaving the focus on updated economic projections and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. Policymakers have signaled a data dependent neutral stance, looking for more evidence of disinflation and greater clarity on the impact of Trump’s policies. Uncertainty surrounding trade has left markets on edge, with investors struggling to price in the full effects of tariffs that appear to change by the week.

Recent data has painted a mixed picture. A stronger-than-expected rebound in single-family housing starts and resilient industrial output have provided some reassurance that the US economy isn’t on the verge of a recession. However, hotter-than-expected import prices added to concerns about inflation becoming entrenched, further complicating the Fed’s path.

Despite softer risk sentiment, the greenback has struggled to capitalize on safe-haven flows, reflecting investor unease over the longer-term impact of Trump’s policies. With Powell set to address the press later today, markets will be watching for any hints about the timing of future cuts. Any signal that rates could remain high for longer may give the dollar a short-term boost, while a more dovish tilt could reignite pressure on the currency.

European confidence making a comeback

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

The outlook is brightening across Europe, buoyed by hopes of  Ukraine ceasefire and the passage of a landmark spending package in Germany’s parliament. European equities have outperformed their US counterparts year-to-date, most notably with the German DAX up 17%. The euro is also over 5% stronger than the dollar this year and investors are becoming more optimistic about the future.

Germany’s ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment jumped to 51.6 in March, the highest level in over three years, compared to 26 in the previous month and forecasts of 48.1. The last time the indicator increased this substantially was in January 2023. The assessment of the current economic situation remains stable, but it’s the expectations index that depicts the positive impact surrounding Germany’s fiscal policy, including the agreement on a multibillion-euro financial package for the federal budget. Digging into the details, investors’ expectations of rising inflation has risen to the highest level since 2022. Moreover, while over 60% of respondents still expect interest rates to fall, the proportion has sharply dropped from its 1-year average of 80%. This likely reflects the anticipated effects of fiscal loosening and monetary tightening.

Such conditions should be supportive for the common currency, which continues to hold onto the $1.09 handle and well above its 200-day moving average support nearer $1.07. The Fed’s meeting today could inject fresh directional impetus for the pair, but in overbought territory according to the 14-day relative strength index, we’re dubious of further gains in the very short term.

Profit-taking risk ahead of BoE

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

The pound briefly peered above the $1.30 handle yesterday as the US dollar weakened across the board. However, GBP/USD failed to hold above this key level in sign of exhaustion to the upside as several technical indictors are flashing “overbought”. The prospect of a meaningful pullback cannot be discounted in the coming weeks if the pound continues to stall around these levels.

Market participants might also look be looking to sell sterling ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England (BoE) decision, which recent history shows tends to weigh on the UK currency. Although a dovish Fed might jolt the dollar lower today, traders may look to take profit on the more than 7% uplift in GBP/USD since early February. Looking further down the line, the $1.35 mark could be a key level to target to the upside though if the stars align. We’d need global risk sentiment to improve and the US economic outlook to continue worsening alongside rising UK-US yield spreads. GBP/USD has been under $1.35 now for over two years – its longest ever stint below this level. But should the pair hold above $1.30, bullish traders will likely be eying $1.35 as an upside target later this year. From a technical perspective though, we think the 14-day relative strength index being near to or in overbought territory for most of this month suggests a correction lower might be looming in the very short-term before a resumption of the uptrend takes hold.

On the flipside, sterling’s outlook versus the euro doesn’t look so rosy. The bullish narrative we were pushing last month has been turned on its head since Germany’s decision to boost expenditure, which is viewed as a significant moment for the entire European economy and its growth outlook. We see €1.1740 as a key downside target if GBP/EUR closes below its 50-week moving average this week.

Safe haven gold near all-time highs

Table: 7-day currency trends and trading ranges

Key global risk events

Calendar: March 17-21

All times are in ET

Have a question? [email protected]

*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.

Proposed designs for the U.S. Mint’s 2026 American Innovation dollar for Minnesota honor contributions to the development of mobile refrigeration.

Frederick McKinley Jones, who co-founded Minneapolis-based U.S. Thermo Control – later renamed Thermo King – patented the first refrigerated truck in 1939. His improved Model C, introduced in 1941, was mounted on the front side of a vehicle, revolutionizing the transportation of perishable goods.

“The Model C proved critical during and after World War II, enabling the transport of temperature-sensitive drugs, blood plasma, and food-related goods worldwide. After World War II, the commercially available Model C transformed the agricultural industry,” the U.S. Mint’s design narrative states.

“This technology enabled worldwide shipping of seasonal crops and international trade of perishable goods. This breakthrough paved the way for frozen foods, modern supermarkets, and container shipping – essential to our modern food supply chains and ways of living,” the narrative added.

The U.S. Mint’s American Innovation $1 Coin Program honors pioneering achievements from all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and the five U.S. territories. Introduced in 2018, the series features four unique reverse designs each year, recognizing innovations or innovators that have shaped history.

Design Recommendations for Minnesota Innovation Dollar

Fourteen candidate designs for the Minnesota Innovation dollar were presented by the U.S. Mint to the Citizens Coinage Advisory Committee (CCAC) on Feb. 18 and the Commission of Fine Arts (CFA) on Feb. 20. Both panels expressed broad appreciation for several of the designs.

The Office of the Governor of Minnesota favored design series MN-07 through MN-08DA, with a preference for MN-07A or MN-08A. MN-03 and MN-03A were their secondary choice.

The CCAC selected design MN-03, which depicts a 1940s-era truck with an early front-mounted refrigeration unit. Icons along the truck’s side represent the diverse temperature-sensitive goods made widely transportable by this innovation.

The CFA recommended both MN-03 and MN-07A, noting that each effectively conveys the variety of products that benefited from mobile refrigeration.

“They commented that both designs convey the range of products that could be transported more effectively using mobile refrigeration. They complimented the simplicity and directness of #3, and they described #7A as a handsome composition that renders ‘Minnesota’ in a font that is reminiscent of past graphic representations of the state name,” the CFA’s recommendation letter stated.

Ultimately, the Secretary of the Treasury will make the final design selection after considering input from advisory panels and stakeholders.

Design Images and Design Descriptions

The U.S. Mint’s line art images and design descriptions for all the candidate designs follow.

MN-03 and MN-03A feature a 1940s-era truck with an early front-mounted refrigeration unit. The icons adorning the side of the truck identify the diverse temperature-sensitive goods whose widespread transportation was made possible by this innovation. The additional inscription is “MOBILE REFRIGERATION.”

MN-04 depicts a vintage truck’s steering wheel encircling a collection of medical and food products, along with a snowflake icon in the background. The snowflake symbolizes the cold temperatures essential for preservation, while the steering wheel invokes the cross-country transport of these vital products. The additional inscription “MOBILE REFRIGERATION” encircles the center crossbar of the steering wheel.

MN-05 and MN-05A illustrate a stylized 1940s-era commercial truck soaring over Earth’s horizon, emphasizing the global impact of mobile refrigeration. The mobile refrigeration unit is emphasized through a dramatic visual accent at the truck’s front mount. The additional inscription is “MOBILE REFRIGERATION.”

MN-06A recognizes that the revolutionary technology of mobile refrigeration began as an idea. This design honors the invention and the notion that many great ideas first come to life on the drafting table. The additional inscription is “MOBILE REFRIGERATION.”

MN-07 and MN-07A exhibit a 1940s-era delivery truck with a front-mounted mobile refrigeration unit. They honor Minnesota’s agricultural heritage, and the transportation of essential farm products made possible by mobile refrigeration through an agrarian landscape. The additional inscription is “MOBILE REFRIGERATION.”

MN-08, MN-08A, MN-08B, MN-08C, and MN-08D also depict a 1940s-era delivery truck with a front-mounted mobile refrigeration unit. These designs highlight the impact of mobile refrigeration on agriculture and medicine by incorporating sprout, cross, and heartbeat symbols. The additional inscription is “MOBILE REFRIGERATION.”

MN-09 celebrates the wide-ranging impact of mobile refrigeration, with medical supplies and produce arranged above the 1940s-era refrigerated truck that made their transport now possible. The additional inscription is “MOBILE REFRIGERATION.”

President Donald Trump’s crackdown on the border has cut immigration to half its pre-pandemic rate, according to a new analysis.

The U.S. is on pace to receive 500,000 immigrants in 2025, down from a typical rate of 1 million per year before the pandemic and a sharp decline from the recent peak of immigration in late 2023 when people were entering the country at a rate of 3.5 million-4 million per year, Elsie Peng, U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a commentary Tuesday.

Reducing immigration was a major focus of President Donald Trump’s run for president, and several actions shortly after his inauguration were aimed at tightening security at the border. He also promised to deport immigrants already in the country, but Goldman didn’t see a major uptick in deportations in the data as of February. Instead, the decline in net immigration was driven by a “collapse” of refugees and other immigrants without visas or green cards to an annualized rate of 200,000 from 1.4 million.

The decrease in immigration could have major effects on the economy, especially if significant numbers of immigrants already in the country without authorization stop working for fear of being deported, as anecdotal reports have suggested.

Certain industries, including agriculture and homebuilding, heavily rely on immigrant labor and may face slowdowns and cost increases. Forecasters at Goldman estimate the Gross Domestic Product, a measure of economic output, will grow 0.1 percentage point slower this year than if 1 million immigrants per year were still coming in.

It’s been a wild start to 2025, and uncertainty is now the new normal. With a tit-for-tat trade war officially under way financial markets have been shaken, and volatility prevails.

Convera is excited to announce its latest Market Insights report, Trump, Tariffs and Trade, exploring how the current geopolitical situation might impact global commerce this year.

Download the report

If your cash flows are being impacted by recent swings in currency volatility, our report offers key insights into:

• What trade tensions and tariffs mean for economic growth in 2025
• The latest data and projections for key currency pairs
• Insights to help your business manage FX risk in the year ahead

Key insights from the report

Uncertainty: The new normal

Global trade is near record highs, but value chains are being reshaped by geopolitical tensions and shifting policies. Companies now weigh politics alongside profits, driving trends like friend-shoring and reduced foreign investment despite the US maintaining its position as the world’s top importer. This combination of global fragmentation and US trade dominance ensures that President Trump’s tariff policies remain critical.

Trump’s influence is heightening uncertainty, with his bold policies on trade, immigration, and global alliances keeping markets on edge. Persistent shifts in alliances and policy make it harder for investors to navigate risks like tariffs, complicating the economic outlook.

As tariffs rise, retaliation follows

The U.S. administration quickly raised tariffs on Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese imports, which in turn triggered swift retaliation. Canada plans phased tariffs on $100 billion worth of U.S. goods, Mexico is expected to follow, and China has imposed levies of up to 15%.

Investors had grown complacent about tariff risks, but this escalation signals worsening trade relations and heightened recession concerns. On Polymarket, recession probability jumped from 23% to 40% in two weeks. Fixed-income markets reflect similar fears, with expectations for three Federal Reserve rate cuts now fully priced in (source: Bloomberg).

Dollar ambiguity

The U.S. dollar finds itself in a tug-of-war between the short-term lift from tariff hikes and the downward pressure from weaker economic data, fueling volatility in FX markets. Whilst tariffs may temporarily strengthen the greenback, they also pose a long-term risk by discouraging international demand and debt issuance in dollars. This contradiction is significant as America’s ability to sustain higher debt levels is closely tied to the dollar’s unique global status, but protectionist measures could gradually erode that advantage. In an environment where market signals are increasingly clouded by noise, a scenario-driven approach to FX forecasting has never been more essential.

Download the report, prepare for the future

President Trump’s trade policies, rising tariffs and shifting political alliances are causing uncertainty in currency markets, and increasing risks for companies operating across borders. Retaliatory tariffs, friend-shoring and trade realignment are forcing businesses to rethink their sourcing strategies, while increased currency volatility is complicating cash flow management.

Convera’s latest Market Insights report, Trump, Tariffs and Trade offers a comprehensive analysis of these challenges. Download the report today to help safeguard your financial operations and make informed decisions in 2025’s rapidly evolving landscape.

Want more insights on the topics shaping the future of cross-border payments? Tune in to Converge, with new episodes every Wednesday.

Plus, register for the Daily Market Update to get the latest currency news and FX analysis from our experts directly to your inbox.

If you are having trouble with your taxes, tap one of these five free resources for help.

The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) offers two programs to help you do your taxes, the Defense Department backs one, the AARP Foundation runs one, and one is a federal grant program that provides help with tax disputes. All have answers to the tax questions you may be struggling with alone.

1. Volunteer Income Tax Assistance (VITA)

This IRS program has been helping taxpayers for more than 50 years. To qualify for this free tax help, you’ll need an income of $67,000 or lower. People with disabilities and people who speak limited English also qualify.

VITA sites are run by IRS partners, and the volunteers who fill out tax returns must pass tax law training that meets the IRS’s standards.

“The volunteer preparers I’ve worked with took the service very seriously, many coming back year after year to help elderly and lower-income taxpayers,” says Mark Rosinski, a certified financial planner with Dunes Financial. “Also, every VITA volunteer is required to pass IRS training before every tax season. And lastly, every return is reviewed by another preparer for a second set of eyes before filing,”

The VITA locator tool allows you to find a Volunteer Income Tax Assistance site near you by searching by zip code.

“If it’s difficult for someone to sit and wait for their return to be completed, many VITA programs now offer a drop-off program. This allows a taxpayer to drop off their documents and come back when completed, saving them time and money.” Rosinski says.

2. Tax Counseling for the Elderly (TCE)

This IRS program provides free tax help for people 60 and up. Questions about pensions and other retirement-related questions are all answered in this free program. The VITA locator tool can be used to find Tax Counseling for the Elderly sites. Like VITA, this program is managed by the IRS, and the program sites are run by IRS partners and volunteers who must pass tax law training that is up to the standards set by the IRS.

3. MilTax Free Tax Services

MilTax provides free tax software and free tax assistance for military members. Military tax experts offer one-on-one help, and the free tax software is designed for the specific tax issues of military life. MilTax helps military members file a federal tax return and up to three state returns. The service is available to military members and their families. For in-person assistance, check the VITA locator for programs on military installations.

4. AARP Foundation Tax Aide

While AARP Foundation Tax Aide offers help to everyone who reaches out, the focus of the program is helping people 50 and up with moderate to low income. Started in 1968, AARP Tax Aide is available in more than 3,600 locations across the United States. Volunteers are certified by the IRS. To find a location near you, use this locator tool.

5. Low Income Taxpayer Clinics (LITC)

These clinics offer tax help for people with low incomes who have tax disputes with the IRS. Tax services are free or for a small fee. The disputed tax amount is typically below $50,000. A clinic locator is found on the program’s website. Low Income Taxpayer Clinics also provide outreach to people who speak English as a second language.

The Bottom Line

With April 15 around the corner, it is not too late to reach out for some free tax help in filing your return. Which free service is right for you? Volunteer Income Tax Assistance is for people with disabilities, limited English, and those who make up to $67,000 a year. Tax Counseling for the Elderly offers tax assistance for people 60 and up.

AARP Foundation Tax Aide is free and open to everyone, but it aims to help taxpayers 50 and older with low and moderate incomes. MilTax offers free tax help, including free tax software, to military members and their families. If you have a dispute with the IRS, contact Low-Income Taxpayer Clinics. You’ll get tax assistance for free or a modest fee.

Democrats and Independents have warned that cuts to the Social Security Administration’s budget budget are a step toward privatizing Social Security, a move that experts say could help solve the program’s decreasing funding but would be a difficult transition.

As part of the Department of Government Efficiency’s goal to reduce federal spending, the SSA plans to cut or avoid spending $800 million this fiscal year and cut more than 12% of its workforce. While neither the White House nor DOGE have definitively said that their goal is to privatize Social Security, DOGE advisor Elon Musk’s comments have concerned some left-leaning politicians.

“[Musk has] been on television the last couple of days talking exactly about Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid and what he intends to do—privatize it,” said Rep. John Larson (D-CT) during a committee meeting last week.

Additionally, politicians say Musk’s criticisms of the program’s older database and calling Social Security “the biggest Ponzi scheme of all time” are intended to turn the public’s attitude about SSA negative.

“Why do you make it look like it’s a broken, dysfunctional system? The reason is to get people to lose faith in the system, and then you can give it over to Wall Street,” said Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) in an interview with CNN.

What Does This Mean For Beneficiaries?

As the main trust fund for Social Security is expected to expire in 2033 and benefits would reduce by 17%, some have seen privatization as the program’s savior. Former Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush both proposed privatization actions, but the attempts were abandoned.

If Bush had been successful, Americans would have had four times the amount of retirement money, based on the return of the S&P 500 Index over time, said BlackRock CEO Larry Fink at a BlackRock retirement summit on Wednesday, as reported by CNBC.

“The problem we have now, we have a plan called Social Security that doesn’t grow with the economy,” Fink said.

Today, Social Security is funded by payroll taxes, which are pooled into a trust fund to pay benefits to current retirees and invest in U.S. Treasury securities. Social Security benefit amounts are determined by a formula that takes a person’s average earnings and the age at which they retire.

Comparatively, privatized Social Security would transfer the management of the funds to the private sector, with potentially some form of partial government funding or guarantees. It would likely eliminate payroll taxes in lieu of individual contributions for private accounts, which could be invested in higher-earning but higher-risk investments.

However, it may be difficult to transfer to a private plan. Payroll taxes would need to be diverted into private accounts, yet that leaves current retirees without any funding. This means retirees’ benefits might have to be cut, or current workers would have to pay into both their private accounts and payroll taxes until the transition is complete.

According to a recent survey of those 60 and older by SeniorLiving.org, only 11% were in favor of privatizing Social Security.

Nvidia (NVDA) shares fell Tuesday as CEO Jensen Huang gave a highly anticipated keynote address at the AI chipmaker’s GTC conference.

During his two-hour presentation, Huang unveiled the company’s roadmap for the next two years, providing updates about its Blackwell and next generation Rubin chips, while also showcasing cutting edge AI tech for robotics and telecommunications. Huang also announced a new partnership with General Motors (GM) to train AI manufacturing models.

The flurry of announcements wasn’t enough to lift investor spirits. Nvidia shares, which were down about 1% before the CEO started speaking, closed the day 3.4% lower at $115.43. Investors will be on the lookout for further updates from Nvidia as the conference continues in the next few days.

After several years of explosive gains driven by insatiable demand for the company’s AI offerings, Nvidia shares have come under pressure in early 2025 The stock is trading down 14% since the start of the year amid concerns about overspending on AI infrastructure and uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s trade policies relating to tariffs and chip exports.

With GTC 2025 underway, let’s take a closer look at Nvidia’s weekly chart and use technical analysis to locate key price levels worth watching.

Descending Channel Consolidation

Since setting a record high in January, Nvidia shares have traded within a descending channel, potentially undergoing a consolidation phase before resuming their longer-term uptrend.

More recently, the stock found buyers near the descending channel’s lower trendline, though price action has remained lackluster since. Meanwhile, the relative strength index (RSI) remains below the 50 threshold, pointing to weak momentum.

Let’s identify key support and resistance levels on Nvidia’s chart that investors may be monitoring and also project an upside price target to track if the stock resumes its longer-term move higher.

Key Support Levels to Monitor

A breakdown below the descending channel’s lower trendline could see the shares decline to around $96. This area on the chart would likely provide support near the last year’s March peak and August trough.

A more significant drop could see the stock’s price revisit lower support at the $76 level. Investors may seek entry points in this region near the low of a four-week pullback in the stock last April. 

Important Resistance Levels to Watch

Buying from current levels could propel a move up to around $132, a location that may provide overhead resistance near a horizontal line that links a range of comparable price points on the chart between last June and February this year.

The next higher resistance level to watch sits at the key $150 level. Investors who have come into the stock at lower prices may look to lock in profits in this area near a series of peaks positioned just below the stock’s record high.

Upside Price Target to Track

To project a potential longer-term upside target to track if the stock resumes its uptrend, investors can apply bars pattern analysis, which analyzes prior trends to make future price predictions.

When applying this technique to Nvidia’s chart, we take the bars that comprise the trending move from October 2023 to March last year and overlay them from this month’s low. The analysis speculates a potential upside price target of around $325 if a comparable move played out. We selected this prior trend as it followed a similar consolidation pattern on the chart.

The comments, opinions, and analyses expressed on Investopedia are for informational purposes only. Read our warranty and liability disclaimer for more info.

As of the date this article was written, the author does not own any of the above securities.

More than 55 years after NASA’s Apollo 11 mission achieved the historic milestone of sending humans to the moon, Elon Musk has his sights set on something even bigger… 

Colonizing Mars. 

In a post on X this past weekend, Musk said that his SpaceX Starship will set a course to Mars at the end of next year. This initial voyage will have Tesla’s (TSLA) Optimus robots pave the path first, making way for human landings to begin as early as 2029. 

To many, that may sound rather ambitious. After all, humans haven’t even set foot on the moon since 1972. And our lunar satellite is just ~240,000 miles from Earth. 

Mars is about 140 million miles away – roughly 586 times farther. 

So, yes, Musk proclaiming that SpaceX will send humans to Mars in as soon as four years is bold. 

But ultimately, we’re talking about a guy known for accomplishing the seemingly impossible…

Elon Musk Sets His Sights High

Elon Musk co-founded PayPal (PYPL), the world’s largest digital payment platform, at a time when most people were using cash for transactions. Now the company is worth more than $70 billion.  

He created SpaceX, the world’s largest private space company, which is now beating NASA at its own game – and is valued at $180 billion. 

He persevered through consistent ridicule and criticism to pioneer one of the world’s largest automakers in Tesla… worth more than the next 10 biggest automakers combined.

And he’s also the man behind Neuralink, The Boring Company, and X.

Musk has influenced how we pay for things, what cars we drive, how we communicate online, how we see space… 

I’d venture to say that he is one of the most influential business figures of the past 20 years.

And if he’s good at anything, it is turning the absurd into reality. 

Of course, the billionaire is also known for his overzealousness and track record of missing deadlines. For example, while Tesla’s Cybertruck was initially slated to debut in 2019, it didn’t enter production until 2023. And though he has repeatedly stated that the firm’s full self-driving technology will be available ‘soon,’ it remains in beta testing.

As Medium noted – among other things – Musk “originally aimed to send an unmanned mission to Mars by 2018 and put humans on the red planet by 2024.” As we know, that goal failed to launch.

However… the Cybertruck is now on our roads. Full self-driving technology exists and is being thoroughly tested. And as of March 17, 2025, SpaceX has had 456 successful launches out of 459 total – a success rate of 99.35%. 

Musk may not always hit the mark when it comes to timelines. But he does deliver. 

And when this new era of space development does launch, it’ll create a whole new universe of investment opportunities – pun intended. 

A Space Bursting With Potential

We believe that the prospect for Mars’ colonization and broader interstellar settlement will lead to the creation of several new and important companies. 

For example, such extraordinary travel will necessitate reliable and cost-effective launch systems to transport both humans and cargo throughout space. As such, for the firms specializing in spacecraft capable of long-duration travel and planetary landings, the economic opportunities will likely be bountiful. 

There will also be a great need for myriad new technologies. Things like: 

• Sustainable life-support systems that recycle air and water and shield inhabitants from cosmic radiation 
• New deep-space communication infrastructure and satellites for data transmission and navigation
• Controlled environment agricultural systems for food production and preservation
• Modular habitat construction using materials that are strong, lightweight, and resistant to a harsh environment

Additionally, Mars has a lot of natural resources and is also much closer to the asteroid belt than Earth. Therefore, humans would likely need to develop novel resource utilization technologies and asteroid mining techniques. 

In other words… when humanity arrives on Mars… an entirely new economy could come into being. 

Updated on March 18th, 2025 by Bob Ciura

Income investors are always on the hunt for high-quality dividend stocks. There are many ways to measure high-quality stocks. One way for investors to find great dividend stocks is to focus on those with the longest histories of raising dividends.

With this in mind, we created a downloadable list of over 130 Dividend Champions.

You can download your free copy of the Dividend Champions list, along with relevant financial metrics like price-to-earnings ratios, dividend yields, and payout ratios, by clicking on the link below:

 

Investors are likely familiar with the Dividend Aristocrats, a group of 69 stocks in the S&P 500 Index with 25+ consecutive years of dividend increases.

Meanwhile, investors should also familiarize themselves with the Dividend Champions, which have also raised their dividends for at least 25 years in a row.

While their length of dividend increases is the same, leading to some overlap, there are also some important differences between the Dividend Aristocrats and Dividend Champions.

As a result, the Dividend Champions list is much more expansive. There are many high-quality Dividend Champions that are not included on the Dividend Aristocrats list.

This article will discuss the Dividend Champions, and an analysis of our top 7 Dividend Champions now, ranked according to expected total returns in the Sure Analysis Research Database.

Table of Contents

You can instantly jump to any specific section of the article by clicking on the links below:

Overview of Dividend Champions

The requirement to become a Dividend Champion is simple: 25+ years of consecutive annual dividend increases. The Dividend Aristocrats have the same requirement when it comes to number of years, but with a few additional requirements.

To be a Dividend Aristocrat, a company must also be included in the S&P 500 Index, must have a float-adjusted market cap of at least $3 billion, and must have an average daily value traded of at least $5 million.

These added requirements preclude many companies that possess a sufficient track record of annual dividend increases, but do not qualify based on market cap or liquidity reasons.

As a result, while there is some overlap between the Dividend Aristocrats and the Dividend Champions, there are also many Dividend Champions that are not Dividend Aristocrats.

Income investors might want to consider these stocks due to their impressive histories of annual dividend increases, so we have compiled them in the downloadable spreadsheet above.

In addition, we have ranked the top 7 Dividend Champions according to total expected annual returns over the next five years. Our top 7 Dividend Champions right now are ranked below.

The Top 7 Dividend Champions To Buy Right Now

The following 7 stocks represent Dividend Champions with at least 25 consecutive years of dividend increases, but they also have durable competitive advantages, long-term growth potential, and high expected total returns.

Stocks have been ranked by expected total annual return over the next five years, from lowest to highest.

Top Dividend Champion #7: PepsiCo Inc. (PEP)

• 5-year expected returns: 15.4%

PepsiCo is a global food and beverage company that generates $89 billion in annual sales. The company’s products include Pepsi, Mountain Dew, Frito-Lay chips, Gatorade, Tropicana orange juice and Quaker foods.

Its business is split roughly 60-40 in terms of food and beverage revenue. It is also balanced geographically between the U.S. and the rest of the world.

Source: Investor Presentation

On February 4th, 2025, PepsiCo announced that it would increase its annualized dividend by 5.0% to $5.69 starting with the payment that was made in June 2025, extending the company’s dividend growth streak to 53 consecutive years.

That same day, PepsiCo announced fourth quarter and full year results for the period ending December 31st, 2025. For the quarter, revenue decreased 0.3% to $27.8 billion, which was $110 million below estimates.

Adjusted earnings-per-share of $1.96 compared favorably to $1.78 the prior year and was $0.02 better than excepted.

For the year, revenue grew 0.4% to $91.9 billion while adjusted earnings-per-share of $8.16 compared to $7.62 in 2023. Currency exchange reduced revenue by 2% and earnings-per-share by 4%.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on PEP (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Top Dividend Champion #6: Andersons Inc. (ANDE)

• 5-year expected returns: 15.5%

The Andersons, Inc. (ANDE) is an agriculture company that conducts business in North America. It operates through the following segments: Trade, Renewables, and Nutrient & Industrial (formerly Plant Nutrient).

The Trade segment includes commodity merchandising and the operation of terminal grain elevator facilities. The Trade segment contributed over 68% of the company’s revenue in 2024.

The Renewables segment produces, purchases, and sells ethanol and co-products.

The Nutrient & Industrial segment manufactures, and distributes agricultural inputs, primary nutrients, and specialty fertilizers, to dealers and farmers, along with turf care and corncob-based products.

On February 18th, 2025, The Andersons released its fourth quarter and full year results for the period ending December 31st, 2024. For the quarter, the company reported revenue of $3.12 billion, a decrease from the $3.21 billion reported in the same quarter of the previous year.

The revenue decline continued to reflect weaker commodity prices and overall market sluggishness, which impacted the company’s trading and merchandising activities. Net income for the quarter was $45 million, or $1.31 per diluted share, down from $51 million, or $1.49 per diluted share, in the previous year’s fourth quarter.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on ANDE (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Top Dividend Champion #5: Gorman-Rupp Co. (GRC)

• 5-year expected returns: 16.8%

Gorman-Rupp began manufacturing pumps and pumping systems back in 1933. Since that time, it has grown into an industry leader with annual sales of nearly $700 million and a market capitalization of $1 billion.

Today, Gorman-Rupp is a focused, niche manufacturer of critical systems that many industrial clients rely upon for their own success.

Gorman Rupp generates about one-third of its total revenue from outside of the U.S.

Source: Investor Presentation

Gorman-Rupp posted fourth quarter and full-year earnings on February 7th, 2025, and results were weaker than expected. Adjusted earnings-per-share came to 42 cents, which was three cents light of estimates.

Revenue was up 1.3% year-over-year to $162.7 million, which matched expectations. The increase in sales was primarily attributed to the impact of pricing increases taken in the year-ago period.

Gross profit was $49.2 million for the quarter, or 30.2% of revenue. These were down from $50.9 million and 31.7%, respectively, in the same period of 2023.

The decline in gross margins of 150 basis points included 220 basis points of increased labor and overhead costs, which were driven by healthcare expenses.

That was partially offset by a 70-basis point improvement in cost of materials, which itself was driven by a 140-basis point improvement in selling prices offset by a 70-basis point decline from inventory costing.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on GRC (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Top Dividend Champion #4: Sonoco Products (SON)

• 5-year expected returns: 17.4%

Sonoco Products provides packaging, industrial products and supply chain services to its customers. The markets that use the company’s products include those in the appliances, electronics, beverage, construction and food industries.

The company generates over $5 billion in annual sales. Sonoco Products is now composed of 2 major segments, Consumer Packaging, and Industrial Packaging, with all other businesses listed as “All Other”.

Source: Investor Presentation

On February 18th, 2025, Sonoco Products announced fourth quarter results for the period ending December 31st, 2024.

For the quarter, revenue grew 1.5% to $1.36 billion, which was $310 million less than expected. Excluding the impact of acquisitions, adjusted earnings-per-share of $1.17 compared to $1.02 in the prior year, but was $0.03 less than expected.

For the year, revenue declined 3% to $5.3 billion while adjusted earnings-per-share of $4.89 compared to $5.26 in 2023.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on Sonoco (SON) (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Top Dividend Champion #3: SJW Group (SJW)

• 5-year expected returns: 18.0%

SJW Group is a water utility company that produces, purchases, stores, purifies and distributes water to consumers and businesses in the Silicon Valley area of California, the area north of San Antonio, Texas, Connecticut, and Maine.

SJW Group has a small real estate division that owns and develops properties for residential and warehouse customers in California and Tennessee. The company generates about $670 million in annual revenues.

On February 27th, 2025, SJW Group announced fourth quarter and full year results for the period ending December 31st, 2024. For the quarter, revenue improved 15.5% to $197.8 million, which topped expectations by $10.3 million.

Earnings-per-share of $0.74 compared favorably to earnings-per-share of $0.59 in the prior year and was $0.19 ahead of estimates. For the year, revenue grew 12% to $748.4 million while earnings-per-share of $2.87 compared to $2.68 in
2023.

For the quarter, higher water rates overall added $22.8 million to results and higher customer usage added $9.9 million while regulatory mechanisms lowered revenue totals by $7.1 million. Operating production expenses totaled $154.2 million, which was a 14% increase from the prior year.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on SJW (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Top Dividend Champion #2: Eversource Energy (ES)

• 5-year expected returns: 18.7%

Eversource Energy is a diversified holding company with subsidiaries that provide regulated electric, gas, and water distribution service in the Northeast U.S.

FactSet, Erie Indemnity, and Eversource Energy are the three new Dividend Aristocrats for 2025.

The company’s utilities serve more than 4 million customers after acquiring NStar’s Massachusetts utilities in 2012, Aquarion in 2017, and Columbia Gas in 2020.

Eversource has delivered steady growth to shareholders for many years.

Source: Investor Presentation

On February 11th, 2025, Eversource Energy released its fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results. For the quarter, the company reported net earnings of $72.5 million, a significant improvement from a net loss of $(1,288.5) million in the same quarter of last year, which reflected the impact of the company’s exit from offshore wind investments.

The company reported earnings per share of $0.20, compared with a loss per share of $(3.68) in the prior year. For the full year 2024, Eversource reported GAAP earnings of $811.7 million, or $2.27 per share, compared with a full-year 2023 loss of $(442.2) million, or $(1.26) per share.

On a non-GAAP recurring basis, the company earned $1,634.0 million, or $4.57 per share, representing a 5.3% increase from 2023.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on ES (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Top Dividend Champion #1: Stepan Co. (SCL)

• 5-year expected returns: 19.9%

Stepan manufactures basic and intermediate chemicals, including surfactants, specialty products, germicidal and fabric softening quaternaries, phthalic anhydride, polyurethane polyols and special ingredients for the food, supplement, and pharmaceutical markets.

It is organized into three distinct business lines: surfactants, polymers, and specialty products. These businesses serve a wide variety of end markets, meaning that Stepan is not beholden to just a handful of industries.

Source: Investor presentation

The surfactants business is Stepan’s largest by revenue, accounting for ~68% of total sales in the most recent quarter. A surfactant is an organic compound that contains both water-soluble and water-insoluble components.

Stepan posted fourth quarter and full-year earnings on February 19th, 2025, and results were mixed once again. Revenue was down 1.2% year-on-year to $526 million, but did beat estimates by almost $5 million. Adjusted earnings-per-share came to 12 cents, which missed estimates by 21 cents.

Global sales volume was off 1% year-over-year as double-digit growth in surfactants was offset and then some by demand weakness in polymers. Surfactants were up 3% year-over-year in Q4 to $379 million. Polymer net sales fell 12% to $130 million.

The company managed to generate about $13 million in pre-tax cost savings during the quarter, and about $48 million for the full year.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on SCL (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Final Thoughts

The various lists of stocks by length of dividend history are a good resource for investors who focus on high-quality dividend stocks.

In order for a company to raise its dividend for at least 25 years, it must have durable competitive advantages, highly profitable businesses, and leadership positions in their respective industries.

They also have long-term growth potential and the ability to navigate recessions while continuing to raise their dividends.

The top 7 Dividend Champions presented in this article have long histories of dividend growth, and the combination of high dividend yields, low valuations, and future earnings growth potential make them attractive buys right now.

The Dividend Champions list is not the only way to quickly screen for stocks that regularly pay rising dividends.

• The Dividend Kings List is even more exclusive than the Dividend Aristocrats. It is comprised of 54 stocks with 50+ years of consecutive dividend increases.
• The High Dividend Stocks List: stocks that appeal to investors interested in the highest yields of 5% or more.
• The Monthly Dividend Stocks List: stocks that pay dividends every month, for 12 dividend payments per year.

If you’re a fan of college basketball, then you’re likely familiar with the term “March Madness.” It’s seven rounds of a single-elimination tournament where 68 teams go head-to-head for the national championship.

Well, the tournament kicks off tonight for the men’s bracket and starts tomorrow for the women’s. But basketball fans aren’t the only folks going through some March Madness right now…

You see, as I write this, the S&P 500, the Dow and NASDAQ are all down 8.5%, 6.95% and 12.6%, respectively, for March. But the tides could change this week. The reality is we have a couple of items on the docket that could change the tone of the market…

I should note that yesterday we had a fresh retail sales report. It showed that headline retail sales rose 0.2% in February, missing expectations for a 0.6% rise. Additionally, retail sales for January were revised lower from a prior reading of 0.9% to a 1.2% decline.

Now, the “control group” in this report excludes a few volatile categories in the retail sector, and it actually showed a 1% rise. Economists were expecting a 0.4% gain. That’s significant, because this gets factored into the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ gross domestic product (GDP) estimate for the quarter.

Meanwhile, NVIDIA Corporation’s (NVDA) GTC event started today. CEO Jensen Huang kicked things off with the opening remarks this afternoon. Look for my follow-up Market 360 later this week, because I expect there to be some big announcements during this conference – especially with Thursday’s Quantum Computing Day.

Lastly, we have the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting beginning today, with the latest interest rate decision coming tomorrow. While I’ll cover all the important things to note from this meeting in Market 360, know that there are two key things I will be watching…

First, any comments on the Trump tariffs. The Federal Reserve is guaranteed to address these, but the question remains: Do they change how the Fed sees the economy?

Second, as it is almost certain the Fed will keep rates unchanged, I am most interested in looking at the latest “dot plot” chart. As I have said, I am expecting four key interest rate cuts this year. And while I don’t expect the dot plot to show this (the Fed isn’t looking that far out), it will be interesting to see where they currently stand.