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Change fatigue can strain employees and organizations, and it is getting worse. To reduce the harm, companies are turning to more thoughtful, gradual strategies.

The notion that “change is the only constant” dates all the way back to the pre-Socratic Greek philosopher Heraclitus, some 2,500 years ago. But the pace of change in today’s business world often seems to outdistance the capacity of executives and their teams to adapt.

Hardly a fad pushed by human resources, the phenomenon known as “change fatigue” can affect the bottom line through workforce churn, reduced ability of workers to adapt to further change, and lower productivity.

Executives should “be treating change fatigue as a business risk,” says Hilary Richards, Vice President and analyst in Finance Practice at Stamford, Connecticut-based consultant Gartner.

Whether adopting new technologies or reacting to external change, many if not most companies appear to be in a constant state of flux. Over 75% of corporations revamp their business model every two to five years, according to a study by WalkMe, a San Franciso-based software-as-a-service firm.

Nowhere does change fatigue ring truer than in corporate finance. Finance departments field a myriad of novel strategic roles when a company implements digital transformations, enterprise resource planning, and artificial intelligence (AI).

“CFOs have pretty significant mandates to support growth, manage cash, and process change,” Richards notes. Yet, only one-third of corporate-change projects are deemed successful, according to the WalkMe report. Two-thirds of workers report burnout during transformation drives and workplace stress accounts for 8% of national healthcare spending in the US.

Another recent report from Orgvue, a London-based organizational design and planning platform, found that 38% of CEOs would rather quit than lead a major transformation.

‘Things Are Not Getting Better’

Her clients ability to adapt to change began to wane around 2017, recalls Jenny Magic, founder & CEO of Build Better Change, an Austin, Texas-based consultancy and co-author of “Change Fatigue: Flip Teams From Burnout to Buy-In.”

“Top leadership was interested, but middle managers and the people who do the work were less capable of carrying it out,” she recalls. A recently published report by her firm “validates that things are not getting better.”

Some evidence shows them getting worse.

“The average employee experienced 10 planned enterprise changes in 2022, up from two in 2016,” a Gartner report notes, “and there is no reason to expect the pace to slow. But the workforce has hit the wall; the share of employees willing to support enterprise change collapsed to just 38% in 2022, compared with 74% in 2016.”

In response, some organizations are getting creative; examples can be found among both corporate giants—Danone, Liberty Mutual—and relative upstarts. Companies opt for either change management consultants employed by big name consultancies or specialized emerging competitors. In addition to advising executives, these increasingly high-profile professionals hold conferences, provide training, and draft articles with titles such as “Three Ways to Minimize Change Fatigue Among Financial Teams.”

Large-Scale Transformation, Done Better

The solutions that consultants promote address two distinct kinds of change—large-scale transformation and accumulative change.

Major initiatives tend to favor faster speed and larger scope. Yet there are signs that more gradual solutions might be more effective and less traumatic.

These drives tend to be implemented in reaction to big external events, such as a severe economic downturn, the Covid pandemic and its fallout, or important trends in technology such as artificial intelligence. But this might reflect outdated thinking, argues Oliver Shaw, CEO of Orgvue.

“Change came along a lot less frequently” even a couple of decades ago, he says. Executives “developed impulses [to act]: ‘Change is needed now!’” As a banker who lived through the 2008 financial crisis, “I thought at the end of that, I would never see anything like it again.”

Now, supposedly one-of-a-kind events seem run-of-the-mill.

Full-bore transformation, often involving cutbacks, might be too blunt in an ever-changing world, Shaw argues. Risks include high severance pay and other costs related to large-scale layoffs. Companies in the Fortune 500 that underwent significant workforce restructuring in 2023 dished out $32.7 billion in severance pay that year and carried over another $10.9 billion into 2024 as charges or liabilities, according to data compiled by Orgvue.

Additional costs of dumping workers, according to a 2024 Bloomberg study of Securities and Exchange Commission listings, include reduced productivity (about six months); an uptick in voluntary departures; increased unemployment insurance tax; and higher legal fees, mostly to avert lawsuits over alleged discrimination.

Danone took a different path when it was contemplating a large-scale change; it used what an Orgvue case study calls a “continuous design approach to organizational development to remove the need for costly, reactive, high-risk transformation projects.” Instead of slashing jobs, the Paris-based multinational food and beverage company overhauled its human resources processes and shortened its planning period from annual to quarterly to better track labor demand and supply. They were able “to understand how [to make adjustments] through time,” Shaw says.

As with any malady, sometimes the best “remedy” is preventative medicine. When the Swedish payments fintech Klarna wanted to reduce overhead in 2023, it reduced trauma via layoffs by outsourcing about 500 jobs in 10 markets to two partner firms. Internally, it implemented a hiring freeze and embarked on a drive to adopt money-saving AI. “They are leveraging their margins by levering AI,” Shaw notes.

Danone and Klarna are examples of companies where leaders “understand organizations as systems.” If the average firm has a 15% attrition rate, according to Shaw, it should be able to milk that in tandem with internal reassignments to make significant reductions without undue trauma.

‘Slow Down Now, Speed Up Later’

After a merger, San Diego-based broker C3 Risk & Insurance Services jumped into what at first seemed like a very complex and difficult integration process. Employees fretted over their future with the firm. Nobody could agree on which technology to adopt.

Eric Brown, founder and CEO at Florida-based Imperio Consulting, was brought in to help facilitate the process. A veteran of the US Special Forces, Brown draws on that background in his practice. Instead of change fatigue, the American military calls it “operator syndrome.” Constant pressure and uncertainty can wear people down.

“The corporate world mirrors that experience in many ways,” he says, “especially in finance, with its tech overload, unpredictable markets, and ever-changing regulations. It’s like trying to stay steady on shifting sand, and it can be exhausting.”

Brown recalls telling one client, “Let’s slow down now so we can speed up later.” Soldiers think of it as a “crawl, walk, run” sequence. With buy-in from C3’s top brass, Brown was able to help incorporate that approach into the integration plan in large part by using team-building exercises and tools.

“They took it to heart,” he says, investing in training and dialogue with employees. In 2023 and 2024, C3 was tabbed as a top place to work by both Business Insurance and the San Diego Business Journal. “C3 are rock stars,” Brown adds.

C3’s experience also points up the need to address the second of the two types of change fatigue that consultants identify: the accumulation of small changes. Like water that builds up behind the proverbial creaky dam, they can ultimately threaten an organization’s structural integrity.

Employees feel increasingly harried by the nearly non-stop accumulation of relatively minor changes affecting managerial strategies, team composition, and job description, Gartner found. Employees feel disempowered by top-down change that comes without debate or discussion. Old-school burnout and increased turnover result if employees cannot recover and recharge from one disruptive event before the next one comes along.

Hoping to ward off the fatigue cycle-of-death by 1,000 cuts, Liberty Mutual designed a process to identify employees’ fears and assumptions. It started with questions aiming to help workers make peace with change. Tools included change workshops as well as employee engagement and feedback. Such initiatives can help address problems that lurk below the surface.

“Most of the senior C-suite focuses on the tip of the iceberg,” Richards says. “It’s what they’re paid for. But your team will run into that iceberg.”

Investment in AI is soaring, yet its real-world utility is still evolving, with many viewing it as an emerging technology.

While the financial sector has been using artificial intelligence in one form or another for several years, the recent uptick in AI-related activity and investment is sharpening the focus on how far and fast these new technologies can be scaled. According to the latest Infosys Bank Tech Index, global banks allocated 29% of their technology budgets to AI in Q3 2024, up from 20% in Q1—an overall increase of nine percentage points. 

A study from IDC forecasts global AI investment in systems, services, and platforms to reach $300 billion by 2026, driving a compound annual growth rate of 26.5% since 2022—with financial services anticipated to account for a significant share.

Among the drivers of this surge, arguably, was the 2022 launch of ChatGPT. Since then, according to Goldman Sachs, $45 billion of inflation-adjusted investment has been committed to AI technology in the US alone as of the third quarter of last year.

In this new era, İşbank is at the forefront. “As a pioneer in financial technology, our mission is to deliver seamless, hyper-personalized experiences through the strategic integration of cutting-edge innovations,” says Sezgin Lüle, deputy CEO of the Istanbul-based bank. “Among these, AI stands out as a cornerstone for reshaping the banking sector and redefining customer experience.”

Today, AI is at the core of İşbank’s plans.

“By enabling predictive analytics, hyper-personalized services, and enhanced operational efficiencies,” Lüle says, “AI is not just a technological advancement. It is a driving force for reshaping the financial ecosystem.”

Another institution leading the charge is São Paulo-based Nubank. CTO Vitor Olivier says predictive AI enables it to gain leverage and deliver value in a competitive landscape.

While the smartphone has put a bank branch in everybody’s pocket, AI puts a banker in everybody’s pocket, providing customized insights and nudging customers to think in ways that generate better decisions.

“I think that’s the next wave,” Olivier predicts. “It’s around optimizing people’s lives through technology and giving them greater confidence that they are making the right decisions to manage their finances.”

Hyperscaling

Nubank has several partnerships in place, primarily focused on operations, productivity, and infrastructure, several of these with hyperscalers: cloud service providers that furnish services such as computing and storage at enterprise scale.

Hyperscalers arguably have made themselves critical to any expansive AI strategy. In the US, they spent around $200 billion on AI in 2024, according to Goldman Sachs, a number it expects to increase to $250 billion this year. For Standard Bank Group, that’s where much of the investment is focused.

“Ultimately, you go from on-premises computing power to third-party hyperscaler computing power and that’s most probably where your investment will be,” argues Standard Bank CIO Jörg Fischer. At this stage, the firm measures its primary AI investment in time rather than money.

As technology advances, Fischer expects it to become an integral part of daily operations. That said, it will be some time before AI’s impact can be claimed to be “profound.” In the meantime, Standard Bank is firmly focused on “next-level” productivity enhancement incorporating AI.

“We are really pushing AI now, and are using it on a daily basis,” Fischer says. That means working with multiple technology vendors. He’s also nervous when it comes to client-facing AI. Human oversight must keep AI from running “totally wildly”—bringing with it a range of reputational risks—from errors, to ethical concerns, or even liability, he adds.

As with previous computing innovations, AI’s benefits depend on confidence levels, making pre-adoption testing essential. Following the “initial exuberance,” says Satish Babu, principal engineer at Standard Bank, banks are addressing the practical question of how to make AI the basis of a robust set of products that address genuine customer needs.

“We do viability assessments early in the cycle, to see if an idea will give us a reasonable return,” he says. “There’s an element of unknown until we do the testing, but we do make quick judgments about return on investment.

“We always look at the hype as ‘the art of the possible’ and then work out how that applies to our situation and if it makes sense for us. There’s definitely an exuberant hype on what the technology can provide, and I believe it will live up to that at some point in time. But we are quite some distance from there.”

For some areas of financial services, the horizon is further off. “Although we expect AI technology will help enhance returns, we don’t see fully automated investment funds in the near future,” Hidekazu Ishida, an adviser to Global Financial City Tokyo (FinCity.Tokyo), says. “It is because good investment judgments are highly subjective and unique, and the current AI technology does not come close.”

That said, some investment managers are trying to utilize AI.

“Just as Japanese chess players train themselves with AI players, fund managers will increasingly use AI technology to gather and process information,” says Ishida. “We hear that some fund managers are using AI to replace sell-side research. We also hear that some are trying to use non-financial data to assess the speed of management change.” Quantitative tools tend to lag behind change in management behavior, but AI, combined with fund manager creativity, will eventually help investors achieve higher returns, he adds.

Uneven Progress

Attitudes toward the promise of AI are far from even across global financial markets. Parts of the sector remain fixated on leveraging AI for incremental productivity gains or competitive advantage, rather than focusing on its potential to disrupt and transform, observes Dennis Flynn, AI strategist and senior research fellow at the Centre for Sustainable Business, University College London.

“By significantly enhancing predictive accuracy,” Flynn contends, “AI could narrow or even eliminate arbitrage opportunities, forcing a reevaluation of the risk-reward dynamics that underpin modern markets. Those who embrace this paradigm shift, rather than clinging to outdated models, will emerge as the real winners. AI should empower us to achieve more with the same resources, not simply do the same with less. Letting go of familiar ways of working is difficult, but we are beginning to see a shift in mindset.”

For many banks, however, AI is already central to improving operational efficiency, enhancing decision-making, and expanding product offerings, with strategic partnerships helping them to scale these advantages and speed innovation.

Businesses worldwide are embracing real-time payments to cut costs and stay competitive in a digital economy.     

Real-time payments (RTP) are rapidly transforming the way businesses move money, offering near-instant transfers that enable greater liquidity management and operational efficiency. Once primarily the domain of consumers, RTP—by which funds are sent and received in under 10 seconds—are increasingly becoming a critical tool for businesses looking to optimize cash flow, reduce reliance on costly intermediaries, and gain a competitive edge in an era of digital finance.

Despite reaching $22 trillion in turnover in 2024, according to Juniper Research, the high cost of digital transfers has kept many businesses on the sidelines. However, that is about to change, with global RTP volumes projected by Juniper to more than double to $58 trillion by 2028, driven by regulatory changes, technological advancements, and evolving business needs.

Key drivers behind RTP’s rapid expansion include growing corporate demand for instant liquidity, advancements in payment technology, and government initiatives aimed at promoting cashless economies.

“Businesses are beginning to realize the strategic benefits of real-time payments: not just speed, but enhanced control over working capital, and reduced counterparty risk,” says Matthew Purnell, a senior research analyst at Juniper Research.

The Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA) Instant Credit Transfer regulations, that took effect in the European Union (EU) in January, are poised to accelerate business adoption by mandating that eurozone RTP transactions be priced the same as standard credit transfers. Meanwhile, in the US, networks such as the Clearing House RTP and the Federal Reserve’s FedNow are increasing transaction limits to accommodate larger business payments.

While RTP adoption in developed markets has been gradual due to entrenched reliance on traditional payment systems, emerging markets such as India, China, and Brazil have experienced explosive growth. India’s Unified Payments Interface (UPI) processed an astonishing 172 billion transactions in 2024, valued at nearly $2.9 trillion, a 46% increase in the number of transactions and a 35% increase in value over the previous year.

The surge in RTP adoption in developing economies is largely due to the absence of widespread debit and credit card penetration, offering businesses and consumers alike an accessible digital-payment solution. “RTP provides an accessible payment solution for a population that is becoming increasingly banked,” Purnell adds.

Three Factors Fueling RTP Adoption

Purnell points to three major factors driving the adoption of RTP. First, the Covid-19 pandemic accelerated demand for digital transactions as businesses sought alternatives to in-person payments and cash handling. Second, advances in technology, such as smartphones equipped with digital wallets like Google Pay, and the proliferation of 5G wireless coverage, have made RTP more widely available. Finally, governments worldwide—from Sweden to Japan—are implementing policies to encourage the transition to cashless economies.

Big Hurdle For Business Is High Cost

As the Indian example illustrates, consumers have until recently been the primary beneficiaries of RTP, with apps like Venmo in the US and Alipay in China allowing customers to pay for a Starbucks Frappuccino or split the cost of a meal with a half dozen friends. However, businesses have been relatively slow to utilize the technology for making business-to-business payments due to several hurdles—primarily cost. As a result, less than 10% of RTP transactions in Europe, for example, originate from companies.

“The one thing that’s holding back business adoption is differential pricing,” says Uzayr Jeenah, a Toronto-based leader in the global payments practice at consulting firm McKinsey. “Real-time payments are anywhere from three to five times more expensive for a business than a traditional payment rail,” he says, referring to the term for digital-payment infrastructure.

McInnes says the EU was motivated in part by a desire to offer a European alternative to credit and debit card issuers such as Visa and Mastercard, US card services corporations that charge high transaction fees to merchants.

New EU Regulation Will Ease Barriers For Business

The EU RTP regulation, SEPA Instant, will begin affecting outgoing payments in October for eurozone payment providers, including banks and fintech companies. Payment providers outside the eurozone will have until 2027 to comply, allowing time to address settlement challenges related to different currencies.

Susan Barton, director of Financial Services at EY Advisory in Milan, says SEPA Instant offers additional benefits for businesses. It removes the previous €100,000 (about $105,000) limit on individual payments and allows for batch processing—enabling companies to process up to 15,000 payments simultaneously, all within 10 seconds.

“There are positive impacts from a company’s treasury point of view, and benefits of knowing exactly when you’re paying people,” Barton says. “You pay all your employees, and that goes out immediately. It doesn’t take three to four days. It just helps a business with cash management.”

The EU rules will also impact foreign banks with eurozone branches, creating potential pathways for RTP expansion beyond the euro. For instance, a UK bank with a branch in Paris could receive instant payments via the UK Faster Payment system, and the bank could make euro-denominated RTP transactions through its European branch.

Australia’s New Payments Platform (NPP) also imposes no upper limit on transaction amounts, a trend designed to benefit large businesses handling substantial transactions to settle invoices. “You can do any transaction size over NPP,” says McKinsey’s Jeenah. “You’re starting to see even more business adoption there.” However, individual banks leveraging the NPP infrastructure retain the ability to set their own transaction limits. The NPP system is operated by Payments Plus, a company formed from the 2022 merger of domestic payment providers BPAY Group, eftpos, and NPP Australia.

In contrast, the two US RTP systems—the Clearing House’s RTP network and FedNow—both impose limits. The Clearing House recently raised its transaction cap from $1 million to $10 million, effective February 9, while FedNow currently maintains a limit of $100,000 per transaction, though financial institutions can request a boost to $500,000.

The Challenges Of Cross-Border RTPs

A major drawback of existing RTP systems is their domestic focus, with limited capabilities for cross-border transactions—except in the eurozone, where the euro provides a common currency. This presents a significant challenge for companies with global supply chains that require rapid payment transfers to overseas vendors. According to Statista, the total value of cross-border payments was approximately $190 trillion in 2023 and is projected to reach $290 trillion by 2030, highlighting the sector’s rapid expansion and the growing demand for innovation.

Currently, most cross-border transactions rely on the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (Swift) network, which does not transfer funds directly but rather facilitates payment orders between banks using intermediary correspondent banks to settle transactions. However, Swift transactions are costly and can take several days—posing a challenge for businesses operating in fast-paced international markets.

Several fintech companies, such as London-based Wise (formerly TransferWise); and Harbour & Hills, based in Hong Kong, have entered the market to provide faster, lower-cost alternatives to Swift. These fintechs facilitate cross-border payments by leveraging their internal networks to move funds locally rather than relying on interbank transfers. While this reduces costs, these services do not always provide significant improvements in speed.

The BIS is working to connect domestic RTP systems globally through Project Nexus, a central hub that allows payment networks to link to a single platform rather than integrating with each other individually. Project Nexus involves central banks from Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and India, with Indonesia as a special observer, aiming to enable seamless cross-border transactions among these nations by 2026.

A similar initiative was launched in 2021 in the Nordic region under the P27 Nordic Payments network, a joint venture of six regional banks aimed at enabling RTP across Denmark, Sweden, Finland, and Norway. However, P27 struggled due to political differences and failed to incorporate key players such as Norway’s Vipps and Denmark’s MobilePay. Those two popular mobile wallet providers merged in 2022 to form Vipps MobilePay. In April 2023, P27 withdrew its clearing license application, with CEO Paula de Silva admitting the project was “too ambitious and complex.”

“The primary challenge for cross-border RTP is not just speed, but settlement,” says Niklas Lemberg, head of industry engagement at Finnish bank Nordea. “The money needs to change owners instantaneously, and it has to be done using central bank money.”

New Solutions For Instant Cross-Border Settlements

In October 2024, J.P. Morgan introduced Wire365, a 24/7 US dollar settlement system that allows businesses to settle transactions globally at any time—marking a significant step toward continuous, real-time cross-border payments.

Meanwhile, distributed ledger technology, such as blockchain, is being explored as an alternative for real-time cross-border payments. Ripple Labs, a fintech based in San Francisco, has developed its own cryptocurrency, XRP, to facilitate near-instant global transactions. Funds are converted to XRP as an intermediary currency and then settled in the recipient’s local currency. However, concerns over cryptocurrency volatility have deterred some businesses from adoption.

To address volatility, Ripple has introduced a stablecoin, RLUSD, pegged to the US dollar. This allows businesses to transfer funds without exposure to currency fluctuations—potentially offering a more attractive cross-border payment solution.

Are Central Bank Digital Currencies The Future Of RTPs?

Central banks are also exploring their own solutions, with China’s digital yuan leading the way as the most advanced central bank digital currency (CBDC) to date. China’s digital yuan pilot had already processed $986 billion in transactions by the end of the second quarter of 2024, according to the country’s central bank deputy governor.

The European Central Bank is also pursuing a digital euro, with a decision on its future implementation expected at the end of 2025. Unlike cryptocurrencies, CBDCs would operate on private distributed ledgers, reducing transaction costs and enhancing transparency while maintaining regulatory oversight.

CBDCs could revolutionize cross-border payments by eliminating intermediaries, lowering costs, and enabling real-time tracking of transactions—providing businesses with greater efficiency and security.

A Cautionary Note About RTP Growth

Despite the opportunities RTP presents, potential risks exist for banks and financial institutions. A November 2024 paper entitled The Effect of Instant Payments on the Banking System: Liquidity Transformation and Risk-Taking, by writers at Brazil’s central bank, Columbia University, and the Wharton School of Business, warns that RTP adoption could increase liquidity pressures and risk-taking behavior.

The study suggests that RTP could limit banks’ ability to manage payment flows, forcing the banks to hold larger liquid asset buffers at the expense of higher yielding, less liquid investments. “Banks are effectively becoming ‘narrower,’” the report cautions.

However, as technology and regulatory frameworks continue to evolve, the business case for RTP adoption is expected to grow exponentially. The expanding use cases for RTP—including factoring and AI-driven payment automation—present a compelling opportunity for businesses to enhance their financial operations and gain a competitive advantage.

The rapid rise of this fast-format cricket, led by the Indian Premier League, is fueling multi-billion-dollar investments, as franchises expand into new leagues and untapped markets.

Once a sport defined by tradition and endurance, cricket is now at the center of a modern gold rush. The explosive growth of Twenty20 (T20) cricket—a fast-paced, three-hour format instead of the traditional five days—has turned the game into a commercial powerhouse, attracting global investors eager to stake their claim.

The Indian Premier League (IPL), launched in 2008, has been the driving force behind this transformation, generating record-breaking revenues and inspiring the creation of T20 leagues across the world.

As of 2024, the IPL’s total value is $16.4 billion, according to a study by Houlihan Lokey, a leading valuation authority. With its broadcast rights selling for $6.02 billion, investors are aggressively expanding their portfolios, buying into leagues in South Africa, the UAE, England, the US and beyond. Established IPL franchise owners are leading the charge, while new entrants, including tech billionaires and Bollywood stars, are fueling the sport’s rapid globalization.

The IPL’s Financial Power

Tata Group, the IPL’s title sponsor for 2024–2028, pays an annual sponsorship fee of $58 million. The league generates approximately $1.2 billion per year from broadcasting and sponsorships, seventh most in the sports world, but ranks as the second most valuable sports league globally in broadcasting rights on a per-match basis, earning $17 million per game—trailing only the NFL, which earns about $37 million per game.

Having found success in the IPL, franchise owners are now backing new leagues worldwide. In South Africa’s SA20, all six teams are owned by IPL investors. The UAE’s ILT20 has drawn backing from Bollywood star Shah Rukh Khan, as well as business giants like GMR, Adani, Lancer Capital, and Capri Global.

Reliance, owner of the Mumbai Indians, is at the forefront of global expansion, acquiring a 49% stake in the Oval Invincibles for $74 million—the highest franchise price in England’s “Hundred” competition. Reliance also owns MI Cape Town (SA20), MI Emirates (ILT20), and MI New York (Major League Cricket).

Other IPL stakeholders are following suit. RPSG Group, owner of the Lucknow Super Giants, acquired a 70% stake in the Manchester Originals for $100 million and also owns the Durban, South Africa, franchise in SA20. Sun Group, owner of Sunrisers Hyderabad, purchased the Northern Superchargers for $125 million, while GMR Group, co-owner of the Delhi Capitals, invested $149 million in Hampshire.

New Investors Enter the Game

The T20 boom is also attracting fresh capital from outside traditional cricket circles. A billionaire tech consortium led by Google CEO Sundar Pichai and Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella has agreed to buy a 49% stake in London Spirit for $180 million.

In the U.S., approximately $850 million is being invested to establish a professional cricket league, with Major League Cricket receiving $120 million in funding from investors including Satya Nadella and Ross Perot Jr. to develop stadiums and training facilities.

Cricket’s return to the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles after a 128-year absence is expected to further accelerate the sport’s global reach. Meanwhile, Europe is joining the T20 movement, with the inaugural European T20 Premier League—featuring teams from Ireland, Scotland, and the Netherlands—set to launch in July 2025. Indian actor Abhishek Bachchan is among its co-owners.

As the sport continues its expansion, new markets are emerging. Saudi Arabia, which hosted an IPL player auction last November, is positioning itself as cricket’s next major destination. With billions pouring into T20, cricket is no longer just a game—it’s a rapidly growing global empire.

Written by the Market Insights Team

USD/CAD trading back above 1.43

Kevin Ford –FX & Macro Strategist

Despite weaker-than-expected US consumer confidence and macro data softening the US Dollar, the Loonie remains tied to tariff news, gradually approaching the 1.435 level. Throughout the week, markets have been flooded with President Trump headlines, causing uncertainty around his policies and driving investors towards safe-havens. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell 10 basis points to 4.3% yesterday, its lowest level since mid-December, and WTI oil dropped below $70 a barrel. FX markets seem more resistant to tariff news for now, awaiting clearer direction before March 4^th. The Loonie however, is the pivotal gauge amidst tariff discussions. Speculation about another push towards April 1^st has grown, but Trump’s recent remarks keep investors guessing.

Separately, the Conference Board’s US consumer confidence index hit its lowest level in February since September 2024, sparking renewed fears of an economic slowdown. Recent US macro data suggests a slowdown rather than a recession. Last week’s weaker housing starts and existing home sales figures followed a similar trend in retail sales from the previous week. More significantly, the Services PMI dropped below the critical 50 mark, signaling stronger economic weakening, as the services sector accounts for about 60% of US GDP. The latest University of Michigan survey also shows a decline in consumer confidence. Policy uncertainties, especially regarding tariffs and potential government layoffs, seem to be impacting economic momentum. This might be the first time in a while that markets haven’t shrugged off bad economic news, as growth becomes the focus and investors reassess the impact of Trump’s administration policies on the economy.

Today’s data calendar is relatively quiet in both the US and Canada. News around fiscal policies and tariffs from the US will be the focus. In the US, the House of Representatives has passed a budget proposal bill that sets the stage for approximately $4 trillion in tax cuts. While it doesn’t specify changes to individual spending or revenue plans, it suggests a $2 trillion reduction in Medicaid spending. Additionally, the bill aims to raise the debt ceiling by $4 trillion, thus delaying the risk of a government shutdown.

Trump’s tax plans optimism

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

US stocks closed at a five-week low and bonds soared yesterday as another disappointing reading on the US consumer fuelled concern about the health of the world’s largest economy. The US dollar index also retreated after US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent said that US yields and the dollar will drop lower due to the Trump policy even if the Federal Reserve (Fed) keeps rates on hold. However, both the dollar and Treasury futures have gone into reverse after House Republicans passed a budget blueprint, paving the way for $4.5 trillion in tax cuts.

The twists and turns in macro and political developments are keeping investors on edge and financial markets volatile. The growth-scare narrative in the US worsened on Tuesday as a closely watched measure of consumer confidence fell by the most since August 2021 in February on concerns about the outlook for the broader economy. That prompted traders to boost bets on Fed rate cuts this year even as inflation pressures seem to be intensifying. Treasury yields fell to their  lowest levels in 2025. A gauge of megacaps extended a plunge from its peak to more than 10%, Bitcoin and the wider crypto-market suffered substantial losses and the US dollar index closed below its 100-day moving average for the first time since October 2024. A lot of the sudden moves look to be part of a reversal in the Trump trade and a growing narrative of softening consumption in the US driving Fed easing bets.

However, the tax cut plans have halted the slide in equities and the dollar, whilst Treasuries have steadied. Republicans have defended the cuts, insisting they will stimulate economic growth and, along with other Trump measures such as tariffs, limit increases to the deficit. The refocus on fiscal matters might help the dollar temporarily and divert attention from weak consumer activity until tariffs become a priority again next week.

Euro faltering at $1.05

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

The euro has staged a prominent appreciation against the US dollar in February, despite having fallen to an over 2-year low earlier in the month. EUR/USD has risen around 4% from near $1.01 to testing the key psychological (and resistance) handle of $1.05, though still six cents below its 5-year average.

A cyclically-driven turn in the US dollar has been noteworthy, with soft US economic data disappointing, helping EUR/USD rebound, but hard data remains robust for now. Reports of a possible peace agreement in Ukraine is also seen as providing a modest boost to EU economies, mainly due to higher military spending prompted by increased security fears, plus lower gas prices alleviating energy cost concerns and providing further support to the euro. Tariff fatigue also set in, allowing risk appetite to improve, aiding the pro-cyclical euro. Germany’s election results, despite bringing relief, has so far failed to enhance the euro’s uplift meaningfully though.

Stability in rates markets has also failed to boost the euro. The inverse relationship EUR/USD usually has with the MOVE index (volatility in fixed income), decoupled around the US election. The index is down around 16% since then and was recently trading near its lowest levels since early 2022. All else being equal, EUR/USD should’ve risen above $1.10.

But of course a huge variety of variables drive FX, and the weight those variables have on currencies often fluctuates. As a result, EUR/USD’s struggle to convincingly break north of $1.05 of late implies that hopes of sustained rally might be pinned more on a substantial turn in the US economy, though predicting the timing on that front is difficult.

Pound lacking fresh catalyst against euro

George Vessey – Lead FX & Macro Strategist

Sterling rallied to near its highest level of 2025 against the euro last week, and remains over two cents above its year-to-date low of €1.18 and well above its 5-year average of €1.16. GBP/EUR has been in a steady, healthy, uptrend for the best part of two years, enduring just six months of modest losses over this period and gaining almost 8% overall. There are some reasons to expect more gains over the course of 2025, but the absence of a fresh positive catalyst could limit upside potential.

Though excess euro pessimism is arguably here, the euro domestic context, both cyclical and political, remains euro-negative at this stage. Although the UK economy is expected to grow only ~1% this year, recent activity data has been more upbeat. Meanwhile, the Eurozone economy is expected to grow around 0.9%, with stronger US protectionism limiting growth in both regions. If and how US President Trump delivers on his tariff threats remains to be seen, but the UK should fare better than the Eurozone under most scenarios given the majority of UK sales to the US are services. Political uncertainty is also higher across Europe versus the UK, though the German election result has boosted hopes of pro-growth structural changes in Europe’s largest economy. The most significant bullish factor supporting GBP/EUR though is interest rate differentials. The European Central Bank is likely to cut interest rates more than the Bank of England (BoE) this year. Still-elevated UK wage growth and services inflation supports this assumption. That said, this is likely priced into the exchange rate and in fact, the real rate differential (taking into account inflation) suggests €1.19 is a fairer value.

So, where to next for sterling versus the euro? Barring any major deviations in the above (slightly stronger UK growth, less political uncertainty and fewer BoE rate cuts), GBP/EUR should remain supported and we don’t see a major trend reversal occurring anytime soon. However, the pair continues to bump into resistance around €1.21, which is near the upper limit of the post-Brexit vote range since 2016. We need a decisive break above here to establish a new higher trading range.

Equities, oil and yields lower

Table: 7-day currency trends and trading ranges

Key global risk events

Calendar: February 24-28

All times are in ET

Have a question? [email protected]

*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.

Written by Steven Dooley, Head of Market Insights, and Shier Lee Lim, Lead FX and Macro Strategist

Aussie pressured by commodity sell-off

The US dollar was higher overnight, rebounding from two-month lows, as a sell-off in commodities hit currencies like the Australian dollar.

Crude oil fell to the lowest level of the year so far on worries about US growth while natural gas dropped more than 6.0% overnight.

Copper dropped 1.0% as US president Donald Trump launched a probe into copper imports sparking fears of new tariffs as seen on aluminum and steel.

Across FX markets, the Australian dollar was hit the hardest, with the AUD/USD down 0.7% as it fell to two-week lows.

The NZD/USD fell 0.6% as this pair hit one-week lows.

In Asia, the USD/SGD climbed 0.2%, nearing one-week highs, while USD/CNH also gained 0.2% as it also reached one-week highs.

USD GDP revision to drive greenback moves

Tonight, the second estimate of the US Q4 GDP will be released at 12.30am AEDT. We anticipate that the 2.3% real GDP growth in Q4 will be reduced to 2.1% q-o-q

Our forecasts for PCE and inventory investment decreased as a result of retail sales and corporate inventories coming in lower than the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)’s original projections.

Furthermore, trade data indicates that net exports were somewhat lower than BEA had initially predicted.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) rebounded slightly yesterday, climbing from two-month lows, as the market expects Trump’s higher tariffs will lead to higher inflation woes, which may keep Fed higher for longer. A stronger GDP number tonight could push the USD further higher.

GBP defies soft business mood

This Friday will see the publishing of the UK Lloyds business barometer.

The headline balance of this poll was 37 in January, which is much less than the 50 reported just six months prior, even if it is higher than the pre-pandemic average of 30.

This study will also focus on the pricing expectations balance, which is still quite high at 59 compared to its prepandemic average of 38, and the staffing levels balance, which has also been declining.

The British pound has been recently stronger, but the GBP/USD faces key resistance through the 1.27-28 region.

This GBP strength has seen big moves in other markets – the AUD/GBP and NZD/GBP are both near the 2025 lows while GBP/SGD is at six-week highs.

Aussie, kiwi tumble to the lower end of the range

Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges  

Key global risk events

Calendar: 24 February – 1 March  

All times AEDT

Have a question? [email protected]

*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.